short sea shipping in california and on the west coast tedesco.pdf · short sea shipping vessels ss...

Short Sea Shipping in California and on the West Coast

Dan Bagnell, CDI Marine – Band Lavis [email protected]

Dr. Matthew P. Tedesco, [email protected]

Traffic Congestion, Highway Safety, and Air Quality ConferenceFresno, CA

January 28, 2008

2

Contents

CCDOTT Project OverviewCCDOTT Project OverviewMarket Analysis and Vessel CapacityMarket Analysis and Vessel CapacityDoor to Door Model and Required Vessel SpeedDoor to Door Model and Required Vessel SpeedVessel CharacteristicsVessel CharacteristicsSSS EconomicsSSS EconomicsPublic BenefitsPublic BenefitsConclusionsConclusionsNext StepsNext Steps

3

CCDoTT Project

Initial question from Westar TransportInitial question from Westar Transport–– How big and fast can we go?How big and fast can we go?

The Center for the Commercial Deployment of Transportation The Center for the Commercial Deployment of Transportation Technologies Technologies

–– Completed FYCompleted FY--05 Phase I at end FY05 Phase I at end FY--0606

»» Preliminary market analysisPreliminary market analysis»» Assessed feasibilityAssessed feasibility

–– Phase II nearing completionPhase II nearing completion

»» Updated market assessmentUpdated market assessment»» Improved fidelity of door to door systems modelImproved fidelity of door to door systems model»» Refinement of vessel requirementsRefinement of vessel requirements»» Improved fidelity of economic modelImproved fidelity of economic model

Matthew P. Tedesco, Ph.D.Matthew P. Tedesco, Ph.D.Technical and Management ConsultingTechnical and Management ConsultingMatthew P. Tedesco, Ph.D.Matthew P. Tedesco, Ph.D.Technical and Management ConsultingTechnical and Management Consulting

CDI Corp Headquarters: Philadelphia, PACDI Corp Headquarters: Philadelphia, PACDI Marine HQ: Jacksonville, FLCDI Marine HQ: Jacksonville, FLBandBand LavisLavis Div., Severna Park, MD Div., Severna Park, MD

LEGEND

Headquarters

Offices

Liaison Office

Main Office

Prototyping Shop

Portsmouth, VA

Seattle, WA

CDI Marine – Band Lavis Division

4

5

West Coast Market PotentialDomestic Freight

2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% 38% 40% 42% 44% 46% 48% 50%

LA ‐ SF 518 1035 1553 2071 2589 3106 3624 4142 4660 5177 5695 6213 6730 7248 7766 8284 8801 9319 9837 10354 10872 11390 11908 12425 12943

LA ‐ SEA 17 35 52 69 86 104 121 138 155 173 190 207 224 242 259 276 294 311 328 345 363 380 397 414 432

SF ‐ SEA 7 14 21 28 35 42 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 106 113 120 127 134 142 149 156 163 170 177

OR ‐ SEA 17 34 51 67 84 101 118 135 152 168 185 202 219 236 253 270 286 303 320 337 354 371 387 404 421

SAC ‐ LA 96 192 288 384 480 576 672 768 864 960 1056 1152 1248 1344 1440 1536 1632 1728 1824 1920 2016 2112 2208 2304 2400

SD ‐ LA 74 148 221 295 369 443 517 590 664 738 812 886 960 1033 1107 1181 1255 1329 1402 1476 1550 1624 1698 1771 1845

LA ‐ SF/SAC 614 1227 1841 2455 3069 3682 4296 4910 5524 6137 6751 7365 7979 8592 9206 9820 10434 11047 11661 12275 12889 13502 14116 14730 15344

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

"Filtered

" Daily Truckloads, O

ne W

ay, 20

12

With Alternative Levels of Market Penetration

Estimated Daily Sailings700 Trailer Vessel

6

Market Share LA - SF LA - SEA SF – SEA OR - SEA SAC - LA SD - LA LA - SF/SAC2% 0 0 0 0 0 0 04% 1 0 0 0 0 0 16% 2 0 0 0 0 0 28% 2 0 0 0 0 0 310% 3 0 0 0 0 0 412% 4 0 0 0 0 0 514% 5 0 0 0 0 0 616% 5 0 0 0 1 0 718% 6 0 0 0 1 0 720% 7 0 0 0 1 1 822% 8 0 0 0 1 1 924% 8 0 0 0 1 1 1026% 9 0 0 0 1 1 1128% 10 0 0 0 1 1 1230% 11 0 0 0 2 1 1332% 11 0 0 0 2 1 1434% 12 0 0 0 2 1 1436% 13 0 0 0 2 1 1538% 14 0 0 0 2 2 1640% 14 0 0 0 2 2 1742% 15 0 0 0 2 2 1844% 16 0 0 0 3 2 1946% 17 0 0 0 3 2 2048% 17 0 0 0 3 2 2150% 18 0 0 0 3 2 21


7

Market Share LA - SF LA - SEA SF - SEA OR - SEA SAC - LA SD - LA LA - SF/SAC2% 1 0 0 0 0 0 14% 2 0 0 0 0 0 26% 3 0 0 0 0 0 48% 4 0 0 0 0 0 510% 5 0 0 0 1 0 612% 6 0 0 0 1 0 814% 8 0 0 0 1 1 916% 9 0 0 0 1 1 1018% 10 0 0 0 1 1 1220% 11 0 0 0 2 1 1322% 12 0 0 0 2 1 1524% 13 0 0 0 2 1 1626% 14 0 0 0 2 2 1728% 16 0 0 0 2 2 1930% 17 0 0 0 3 2 2032% 18 0 0 0 3 2 2134% 19 0 0 0 3 2 2336% 20 0 0 0 3 2 2438% 21 0 0 0 4 3 2540% 23 0 0 0 4 3 2742% 24 0 0 0 4 3 2844% 25 0 0 0 4 3 3046% 26 0 0 0 4 3 3148% 27 0 0 0 5 3 3250% 28 0 0 0 5 4 34


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Market Share LA - SF LA - SEA SF - SEA OR - SEA SAC - LA SD - LA LA - SF/SAC2% 3 0 0 0 0 0 44% 6 0 0 0 1 0 86% 10 0 0 0 1 1 128% 13 0 0 0 2 1 1610% 17 0 0 0 3 2 2012% 20 0 0 0 3 2 2414% 24 0 0 0 4 3 2816% 27 0 0 0 5 3 3218% 31 1 0 1 5 4 3620% 34 1 0 1 6 4 4022% 37 1 0 1 7 5 4524% 41 1 0 1 7 5 4926% 44 1 0 1 8 6 5328% 48 1 0 1 8 6 5730% 51 1 0 1 9 7 6132% 55 1 0 1 10 7 6534% 58 1 0 1 10 8 6936% 62 2 0 2 11 8 7338% 65 2 0 2 12 9 7740% 69 2 0 2 12 9 8142% 72 2 0 2 13 10 8544% 75 2 1 2 14 10 9046% 79 2 1 2 14 11 9448% 82 2 1 2 15 11 9850% 86 2 1 2 16 12 102

Door to Door Discrete Event Model

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Arrival and BerthingArrival and Berthing: Determines if vessels must queue and wait or if : Determines if vessels must queue and wait or if there is berth capacity. Simulates time required to berth. there is berth capacity. Simulates time required to berth. Port Operations and DrayagePort Operations and Drayage: Simulates unloading and loading of : Simulates unloading and loading of vessels. Simulates drayage of cargo to and from receivers and vessels. Simulates drayage of cargo to and from receivers and shippers. Determines time required to completely unload and loashippers. Determines time required to completely unload and load d vessels.vessels.VoyageVoyage: Simulates time required for vessels to depart, travel through : Simulates time required for vessels to depart, travel through restricted waterway, regulated waterway, cruising speed, regulatrestricted waterway, regulated waterway, cruising speed, regulated ed waterway, and restricted waterway en route to next terminal.waterway, and restricted waterway en route to next terminal.

Arrival And

Berthing

Port Operations

and Drayage

VoyageArrival And

Berthing

Port Operations

and Drayage

Voyage

10

Door to Door Model, Cont.

DrayageTo/From Terminal Restricted

ChannelRegulatedWaterways

Cruising SpeedSea Buoy to Sea Buoy

RegulatedWaterways

RestrictedChannel Terminal Drayage

To/From

OUTBOUNDSTAGING

INBOUNDSTAGING

SHIP

YARDTRACTOR

POOL

OUTBOUNDGATE

INBOUNDGATE

DRAYAGETRACTOR

POOL

RECEIVER

SHIPPER

Market volumeMarket volumeDrayage tractorsDrayage tractorsYard tractorsYard tractorsTrailersTrailersDrayage distancesDrayage distancesRoute parametersRoute parametersVessel capacityVessel capacityVessel quantityVessel quantityVessel speedVessel speedVessel throughputVessel throughputTerminal efficiencyTerminal efficiency

Entrance to Northern Ports

11

Importance of Port LocationNorthern to Southern California Route

12

13

Door to Door Service Time

M 9:00 AM 10:00 AM 11:00 AM 12:00 PM 1:00 PM 2:00 PM 3:00 PM 4:00 PM 5:00 PM

Promised Delivery Time

110 Trailers/Hr 200 Trailers/Hr

Richmond to TacomaDoor to Door Service8:00 am Pickup Time

0.002.004.006.008.00

10.0012.0014.0016.0018.0020.0022.0024.0026.0028.0030.00

48 72 96


Requ

ired

Ship

Spe

ed (K

nots

)


LA/LB to TacomaDoor to Door Service8:00 am Pickup Time

0.002.004.006.008.00

10.0012.0014.0016.0018.0020.0022.0024.0026.0028.0030.0032.0034.0036.0038.0040.0042.0044.00

48 72 96


Requ

ired

Ship

Spe

ed (K

nots

)


Transport Efficiency

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15

Short Sea Shipping Vessels

SS United States

S L78 8 M W, 5 2 % D wtLD R = 7 .5

X-C ra f t5 3 M W, 2 5 % D wtLD R = 7 .0

NGA TSV Proposal

NGA LCS Proposal

F a s t S hip A t la nt ic3 0 0 M W, 3 3 % D wtLD R = 7 .6

SeaBridge

A D X, 10 6 M W, 3 2 % D wt , LD R = 10 .3

FFBIZAR/RR EHSCV

RR P2500

R R F N S LV10 8 M W, 3 5 % D wt, LD R =8 .0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

Speed (knots)

Leng

th (m

)

Fn = 0.2 Fn = 0.3 Fn = 0.4 Fn = 0.5

Fn = 0.6

Fn = 0.7

Fn = 0.8

Fn = 0.9

Fn = 1.0

A flo a t S uppo rt Ve s s e ls2 0 M W A v e ra g e5 0 % D e a dwe ig ht F ra c t io nLD R = 5 .9 (a v e ra g e )

F rig a te s4 0 M W A v e ra g e2 5 % D e a dwe ig ht F ra c t io nLD R = 7 .6 (a v e ra g e )

C o nv e nt io na l R o R o / R o P a x5 4 M W A v e ra g e3 5 -4 0 % D e a dwe ig ht

HS LC M o no hulls & M ult ihu llsUp to 7 8 M W2 5 % D e a dwe ig ht F ra c t io n Typic a lLD R = 7 typic a l

C urre nt HS LC M o no hull S ize Lim it (S te e l/ A llo y)

C urre nt HS LC M ult ihull S ize Lim it (A llo y)

HS LC Lim it

HS LC Lim it

Catamarans

Monohulls

Stabilised Monohulls

Source: BMT Designers and Planners

Seaworthy Systems

Herbert Engineering

BMT & SeaBridge

Current Results

Tote

Notional Design Characteristics

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Variant > Large -1 Large - 2 Med -1 Small - 1 Small - 2 Small - 3

Trailers 720 550 452 150 150 150

Speed Kts 27 32 24 22 24 26

LOA Ft. 959.6 980.1 836 484 484 509

BOA Ft. 118.0 105.5 118 70 74 72

Draft Ft. 26.7 23.4 29 17 17 20

Disp. Long Tons

47,845 33,722 45,472 8717 9239 10,851

Power SHP 121,536 117,768 17,742 19,693 28,800 41,054

Design Synthesis Modeling and OptimizationExample “Carpet Plot”

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Large West Coast Ro-Ro27 Knot, 720 Trailers

18

WT WT

General Arrangements27 Knot, 720 Trailers

19

MAIN DECK

1ST DECK

2ND DECK


20

3RD DECK

4TH DECK


21

5TH DECK

TANK TOP

22

Vessel CostsRo-Ro $/DWT in 2005 Dollars

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Year

Dol

lars

• 700 trailer vessel < $350 M• 450 trailer vessel < $250 M• 150 trailer vessel ~ $100 M

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Door to Door Costs

5000 to 8000 trailers depending on route to support twice daily 5000 to 8000 trailers depending on route to support twice daily serviceservice–– Amortized over 20 yearsAmortized over 20 years

350 drayage tractors at each end for 700 trailer capacity vessel350 drayage tractors at each end for 700 trailer capacity vesselss–– Amortized over 5 yearsAmortized over 5 years

50 to 100 yard tractors per terminal50 to 100 yard tractors per terminal–– Amortized over 4 yearsAmortized over 4 years

Drayage Tractors, Trailers, Yard TractorsDrayage Tractors, Trailers, Yard Tractors–– Procurement CostsProcurement Costs–– LaborLabor–– MaintenanceMaintenance–– FuelFuel–– TiresTires–– InsuranceInsurance

TerminalsTerminals–– Uncertainty regarding pricingUncertainty regarding pricing–– Leasehold improvements at startLeasehold improvements at start--upup–– MaintenanceMaintenance–– StaffStaff–– ConsumablesConsumables

Harbor Maintenance TaxHarbor Maintenance Tax

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Cost Allocation

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Impact of Alternative Fuel and Emissions Mitigation Technology

Preliminary (Phase I) figures, debt service not included, terminal cost uncertaintyEmissions for Short Sea Shipping on the Northern to Southern California route are lower than those for trucking if a gas turbine plant running MDO is used

– NOx emissions for the GT plant on MDO are 64% of those by traditional trucking, and PM emissions are 97% of those by traditional trucking

– Emissions are higher than traditional trucking when operating on less costly IFO with no emissions mitigation technology

Emissions mitigation– Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) decreases NOx emissions by 20-30%, although the

lower combustion temperature results in a slightly higher PM count– Selective catalytic reduction (SCR) breaking down NOx resulting in as much as a 99%

reduction. PM reductions up to 40% have been reported with SCR– Modest increase in fuel consumption ~ 1%

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Potential Public Benefits of SSSand Sources of Supporting Data

Reduced and diverted emissionsReduced and diverted emissions–– Carl Moyer DataCarl Moyer Data

Reduced road infrastructure costsReduced road infrastructure costs–– UserUser--fees including fuel tax, excise tax, tire tax, heavy vehicle usefees including fuel tax, excise tax, tire tax, heavy vehicle use tax and tax and

allocated federal program costs allocated federal program costs Reduced congestionReduced congestion

–– Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Highway Cost Allocation StFederal Highway Administration (FHWA) Highway Cost Allocation Study udy (HCAS) projects added cost in cents/mile for each added truck (HCAS) projects added cost in cents/mile for each added truck

Reduced accidentsReduced accidents–– FWHA HCAS projects costs in cents/mile for each additional truckFWHA HCAS projects costs in cents/mile for each additional truck on the roadon the road

Reduced noise pollutionReduced noise pollution–– FWHA HCAS projects costs in terms of lost property value for addFWHA HCAS projects costs in terms of lost property value for additional itional

vehiclesvehiclesIncreased goods movement capacityIncreased goods movement capacityMaritime labor and industrial baseMaritime labor and industrial baseMilitary and securityMilitary and security

Domestic Freight Emissions OpportunityNorthern to Southern California

Assumptions:Assumptions:–– Truck population by model year: Chapter 7; Action Plan for Truck population by model year: Chapter 7; Action Plan for

Reducing Emissions with Incentive Funds 2007 Ozone Plan; Reducing Emissions with Incentive Funds 2007 Ozone Plan; San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District

–– Apply these percentages to emissions/mile by model year to Apply these percentages to emissions/mile by model year to determine weighted average emissions: From Table Bdetermine weighted average emissions: From Table B--5 Carl 5 Carl Moyer Program Guidelines; Part IV AppendicesMoyer Program Guidelines; Part IV Appendices

–– Apply to portions of trip to determine grams per truck by Apply to portions of trip to determine grams per truck by regionregion

–– Incorporate consideration of idlingIncorporate consideration of idling–– Apply to daily truckloads based on varying levels of market Apply to daily truckloads based on varying levels of market

diversiondiversion

27

Domestic Freight Emissions OpportunityNorthern to Southern California

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DAILY EMISSIONS LODI TO GORMAN (2010) DAILY EMISSIONS GORMAN to SANTE FE (2010)Market Share

Truck loads NOx Grams PM Grams NOx Tons PM Tons

Market Share

Truck loads

NOx Grams PM Grams NOx Tons PM Tons

10% 3945 19938148 587965 19.94 0.59 10% 3945 6037608 178046 6.04 0.1820% 7890 39876296 1175929 39.88 1.18 20% 7890 12075216 356091 12.08 0.3630% 11836 59814444 1763894 59.81 1.76 30% 11836 18112825 534137 18.11 0.5340% 15781 79752592 2351859 79.75 2.35 40% 15781 24150433 712183 24.15 0.7150% 19726 99690741 2939824 99.69 2.94 50% 19726 30188041 890228 30.19 0.8960% 23671 119628889 3527788 119.63 3.53 60% 23671 36225649 1068274 36.23 1.0770% 27616 139567037 4115753 139.57 4.12 70% 27616 42263258 1246320 42.26 1.2580% 31562 159505185 4703718 159.51 4.70 80% 31562 48300866 1424365 48.30 1.4290% 35507 179443333 5291683 179.44 5.29 90% 35507 54338474 1602411 54.34 1.60100% 39452 199381481 5879647 199.38 5.88 100% 39452 60376082 1780457 60.38 1.78

DAILY EMISSIONS LODI TO GORMAN (2008) DAILY EMISSIONS GORMAN to SANTE FE (2008)Market Share

Truck loads NOx Grams PM Grams NOx Tons PM Tons

Market Share

Truck loads

NOx Grams PM Grams NOx Tons PM Tons

10% 3945 21522673 696512 21.52 0.70 10% 3945 6517429 210916 6.52 0.2120% 7890 43045347 1393024 43.05 1.39 20% 7890 13034859 421831 13.03 0.4230% 11836 64568020 2089536 64.57 2.09 30% 11836 19552288 632747 19.55 0.6340% 15781 86090694 2786048 86.09 2.79 40% 15781 26069717 843662 26.07 0.8450% 19726 107613367 3482560 107.61 3.48 50% 19726 32587146 1054578 32.59 1.0560% 23671 129136041 4179072 129.14 4.18 60% 23671 39104576 1265494 39.10 1.2770% 27616 150658714 4875584 150.66 4.88 70% 27616 45622005 1476409 45.62 1.4880% 31562 172181387 5572096 172.18 5.57 80% 31562 52139434 1687325 52.14 1.6990% 35507 193704061 6268608 193.70 6.27 90% 35507 58656864 1898240 58.66 1.90100% 39452 215226734 6965120 215.23 6.97 100% 39452 65174293 2109156 65.17 2.11

29

Military Applications

Additional mode for domestic movement of military freight (USTRAAdditional mode for domestic movement of military freight (USTRANSCOM)NSCOM)–– Advantage to TRANSCOM is reliability and redundancy of modes andAdvantage to TRANSCOM is reliability and redundancy of modes and additional additional

competitioncompetition–– Military freight would make up a portion of the SSS market on a Military freight would make up a portion of the SSS market on a daily basisdaily basis–– Modest cargo volumesModest cargo volumes

Homeland security and disaster reliefHomeland security and disaster reliefSupport for Military Sealift needsSupport for Military Sealift needs

–– Incorporation of militarily useful features into Short Sea ShippIncorporation of militarily useful features into Short Sea Shipping vesselsing vessels–– May respond to sealift needs during contingenciesMay respond to sealift needs during contingencies–– Limited economic incentive to incorporate military featuresLimited economic incentive to incorporate military features

»» Disruption to serviceDisruption to service

30

Conclusions and Challenges

SSS appears feasible on the West CoastSSS appears feasible on the West CoastPotential for series construction to drive down vessel Potential for series construction to drive down vessel construction costsconstruction costsMost significant hurdle for Short Sea Shipping in California Most significant hurdle for Short Sea Shipping in California is port availability and accessis port availability and access–– In particular, Southern California LA/LBIn particular, Southern California LA/LB–– Ports and route define vessel requirements, turnPorts and route define vessel requirements, turn--around times, required around times, required

speed and overall costs per trailerspeed and overall costs per trailer–– Port lease and maintenance costs one of the more uncertain figurPort lease and maintenance costs one of the more uncertain figures in the es in the

economic analysiseconomic analysisOther Challenges facing SSSOther Challenges facing SSS–– Emissions MitigationEmissions Mitigation–– Perceptions of ShippersPerceptions of Shippers–– FinancingFinancing–– Harbor Maintenance TaxHarbor Maintenance Tax

31

Next StepsComplete CCDOTT Phase II studyComplete CCDOTT Phase II studyConduct assessment of the benefits to California, addressing Conduct assessment of the benefits to California, addressing issues raised todayissues raised todayPower, Propulsion, and HullPower, Propulsion, and Hull--Form StudiesForm Studies

–– Emissions mitigationEmissions mitigation–– Energy conservation and fuel consumptionEnergy conservation and fuel consumption

Extend analysis to include more rigorous consideration of Extend analysis to include more rigorous consideration of container feeder vessels container feeder vessels Develop vessel designs and ship specifications to sufficient detDevelop vessel designs and ship specifications to sufficient detail ail to obtain shipyard pricingto obtain shipyard pricingConduct vessel and port throughput analysisConduct vessel and port throughput analysisSimulate arrival and departure in ports of interestSimulate arrival and departure in ports of interestInvestigate potential to leverage foreign designs, especially foInvestigate potential to leverage foreign designs, especially for r smaller vesselssmaller vesselsPort and Terminal discussionsPort and Terminal discussions

–– Port accessPort access–– Terminal lease costsTerminal lease costs–– Terminal arrangementsTerminal arrangements

Labor DiscussionsLabor Discussions–– RatesRates–– Manpower requirementsManpower requirements

Refinement of Westar Transport Business PlanRefinement of Westar Transport Business Plan

32

Short Sea Shipping References

Documents related to Short Sea Shipping may be Documents related to Short Sea Shipping may be found at the NSRP SSS Library:found at the NSRP SSS Library:

http://advancedmaritimetechnology.aticorp.org/shorthttp://advancedmaritimetechnology.aticorp.org/short--seasea--shippingshipping

Documents related to Short Sea Shipping may be Documents related to Short Sea Shipping may be found at the MARAD Marine Highways Library:found at the MARAD Marine Highways Library:

http://www.marad.dot.gov/MHI/research/index.asphttp://www.marad.dot.gov/MHI/research/index.asp

http://advancedmaritimetechnology.aticorp.org/short-sea-shipping

http://www.marad.dot.gov/MHI/research/index.asp