shipping market overview - marinemoney.com angelica... · suezmax aframax clean products(mr) %...

Shipping Market Overview23 May 2018

China Ship Finance & Offshore Summit |Marine Money

Prepared by Angelica Kemene |Head of Market Analysis & Intelligence

Current S&P – Earnings – S&DCycles & Prices & Trends

Sectors: Cycle Position May 2018

% deviation from earnings average 2009-2018

© Optima Shipping Services 2018

Tanker Markets have turned

weak

Bulk carrier & Container rates

improve further after the

extremely weak 2016

5.44%

-33.48%

-2.66%

4.55%

7.38%

-0.65%

8.47%

-108.09%

-85.81%

-76.04%

-17.93%

-150% -100% -50% 0% 50%

Feeder Containership 1700 teu grd

Containership 4400 teu gls

Neo-Panamax 9000 teu

Capesize TC Average

Panamax TC Average

Supramax TC Average

Handysize TC Average

VLCC

Suezmax

Aframax

Clean Products(MR)

% change in average earnings from the 2009-2018 average

Baltic Exchange Dirty & Clean Tanker Index

Sectors: Cycle Position May 2018

Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI)


China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI)

Newbuilding Prices out of the bottom - Bulkers


81K DWT Panamax Bulkcarrier NB Prices 61-64K DWT Supramax NB Prices

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2012 2018

$ Mln

Nominal

Inflation adjusted

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

$ Mln

Nominal

Inflation adjusted

Newbuilding Prices - Tankers


Suezmax Tanker 156-158K DWT Newbuilding Prices Products Tanker 47-51K DWT Newbuilding Prices

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

$ Mln Suezmax Tanker 156-158KDWT Newbuilding Prices

inflation adj Suezmax NBprice

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Nominal Inflat ion adjusted

Newbuilding Prices - Containers


Containers 1700 TEU Newbuilding Prices Containers 8800 TEU Newbuilding Prices

Secondhand Prices: Bulkers

Panamax 76K Bulkcarrier 5 Year Old Secondhand Prices

Handymax 56K 5 Year Old Secondhand Prices


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2012 2018

$ Mln

Nominal

Inflation adjusted

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

$ Mln

Nominal

Inflation adjusted

Secondhand Prices: Tankers

Suezmax D / H 160K DWT 5 Year Old Secondhand Prices

Products D / H 47K DWT 5 Year Old Secondhand Prices


0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Nominal Inflat ion adjusted

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

$ MlnSuezmax D / H 160K DWT 5Year Old Secondhand Prices

inflation adj Suezmax SH 5yrsprice

Secondhand Prices- Containers


Containers 1700 TEU 5 years old secondhand Prices Containers 8800 TEU 5 years old secondhand prices

Sectors: Fleet Age Profile

Bulk Carriers: Existing Fleet Age Profile Tankers: Existing Fleet Age Profile


133

431

56

175

108

165

163

528

147

325

184

263

214

457

190

296

117

144

111

144

39

126

80

122

78

100

7

50

23

16

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Handysize

MR1/MR2

Panamax/LR1

Aframax/LR2

Suezmax/LR3

VLCC/ULCC

0-4 yrs 5-9 yrs 10-14 yrs 15-19 yrs 20 yrs & over

Sectors: Fleet Age Profile

Containers: Existing Fleet Age Profile


287

78

9

198

86

88

390

337

84

196

135

7

940

414

100

188

1

8

473

183

67

19

0

0

817

76

10

6

0

0

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Feeder

3,000-5,999 TEUs

6,000-7,999 TEUs

8,000-11,999 TEUs

12,000-14,999 TEUs

15,000 + TEUs

0-4 yrs 5-9 yrs 10-14 yrs 15-19 yrs 20 yrs & over

Forward Delivery Schedule No of vessels


Bulk Carriers OB:14.5% Capes8.6% Pmax5.5% Supras5.4% Hsize

Oil Tankers OB:15% VLCCs

8.5% Suezmax13.2% Afras

9%Pmax11% LR27% LR1

8% MRs/Handies

Containers OB:20.2% >8K TEU

1.14% 3-7.9K TEU9% Feeders

0

50

100

150

200

250

Cap

esiz

e

Pana

max

BC

Sup

ram

ax

Han

dysi

ze

VLC

C

Suez

max

Afr

amax

Pan

amax

Tan

ker

LR2

LR1

MR

/Han

dy

Post

Pan

amax

Co

ntai

ner

>15,

000

TEU

Neo

Pan

amax

12

-14.

9k T

EU

Neo

Pan

amax

8-1

1.9

TEU

3-7

.9k

TE

U

Feed

er <

3k

TEU

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Bulk Carriers Oil Tankers Containers

OrderBook as % of the fleet

Seaborne Trade Growth Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development index of industrial production and world indices:

Gross domestic product, merchandise trade and seaborne shipments, 1975–2016(1990 = 100) - UNCTAD

Source Data: Optima Shipping Services


The Outlook for the world economy and tradeis expected to improve.

Projections for the medium term point tocontinued expansion, with volumes growing atan estimated compound annual growth rate of3.2% between 2017-2022.

Volumes are set to expand across allsegments, with containerized trade and majordry bulk commodities trade recording thefastest growth.

World Fleet OPEX 2017

Source Data: Moore Stephens


Since the financial crisis in 2008 there is a 60%decrease in earnings for the world fleet.

At the same time there is a 20% increase inOPEX for the world fleet.

The above make decisions to invest in certainprojects more difficult.

It really depends on the project (type ofowner, shipping segment, age of the ship,earnings forecast, number of assets to buy,OPEX, etc) to decide a financier if a project isactually valuable.

And this happens even though the marketlooks healthy.

Bulk Carriers Average OPEX: $5,700 per day

Oil Tankers Average OPEX: $8,320 per day

Containers Average OPEX: $5,975 per day

THANK YOU !


This report has been prepared by Optima Shipbrokers and is addressed to Optima Shipbrokers customers only and is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. This information has no regard to specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. It is published solely for informational purposes and this information is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any product, investment, security or any other financial instrument. Optima Shipbrokers does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information contained herein, nor is it intended to be a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in the report. Neither Optima Shipbrokers , nor any of its directors, employees or agents, accepts any liability for any loss or damage, howsoever caused, arising from any reliance on any information or views contained in this report. While this report, and any opinions expressed in it, have been derived from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith they are not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of your own commercial judgment. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice. Optima Shipbrokers is under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of Optima Shipbrokers accepts no liability whatsoever for the action of third parties in the respect. This information is the intellectual property of Optima Shipbrokers . Optima Shipbrokers logo is the trademark of the company. All rights reserved.

Produced by Optima Shipbrokers Research

10, Ouranou Str166 71Kavouri VouliagmenisGreeceTel: +30 210 8922000

Email: [email protected] www.optimashipbrokers.com

shipping market overview - marinemoney.com angelica... · suezmax aframax clean products(mr) %...

Documents