Suggested Talking Points Thailand’s Economic Outlook

The Thai economy registered its greatest expansion in 5 years with GDP

growth rate reaching 4.9% in the first quarter of 2018, 4.6% in the second quarter and 3.3% in the third quarter. The overall economic grwoth in 2018 is projected at 4.2%. This strong growth rate follows the pattern of accelerating economic expansion of 1.0% which started in 2014, and gathered paces with 3.0% in 2015, 3.3% in 2016, and 3.9% in 2017. In 2019, the Thai economy is projected to grow in the range of 3.5 – 4.5 %.

Thailand’s economic growth is gaining momentum in many sectors, with strong growths in investment, tourism and export which remain the key drivers of the Thai economy. Thailand’s export grew by 8% in the first three quarters of 2018, with projected 10% growth for the year 2018. Sustained growth of the economy is expected to be supported by the recent pickup in the world economy and the global trade volume, as well as significant increases in infrastructure investment and private investment, particularly in targeted industries within the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC).

Thailand’s international ranking has been consistently improved: o In October 2018, the World Economic Forum (WEF) places

Thailand at 38th in the new Global Competitiveness Index 4.0 2018, 2 spots higher than the ranking for 2017.

o In 2018, U.S. News ranks Thailand as the best country to start a new business for the second consecutive year. U.S. News also places Thailand as the 8th Best Country to Invest In.

o The 2018 Global Innovation Index ranks Thailand at 44th place, up from 51st in 2017 and 52nd in 2016.

o The International Institute for Management Development (IMD) ranks Thailand at the 30th place in its global competitiveness report 2018.

o In the annual Doing Business 2019 report, the World Bank ranks Thailand’s Ease of Doing Business at 27th place.

o Thailand is the least miserable economy in the world for 4 consecutive years during 2015-2018, according to the Bloomberg’s Misery Index.

o MasterCard ranks Bangkok the 1st in its Global Destination Cities Index 2018.

Updates on Thailand’s Key Economic Policies

On 8 October 2018, the 20-year National Strategy (2017-2036) came into effect after being published in the Royal Gazette. The vision of the National

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Strategy is “to be a secured, prosperous, and sustainable nation, and to become a developed country through development under the philosophy of sufficiency economy.” The strategy will provide a legal framework for Thailand’s economic and social reform to ensure sustainable development and favorable trade and investment environment in the next 20 years.

In August 2018, the Thai government endorsed “the Southern Economic Corridor” (SEC) as the development platform for four southern provinces; Ranong, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Surat Thani, and Chumphon. The SEC aims to spur economic growth in the southern provinces by creating value-added manufactures from local products such as rubber, palm, fruits, as well as building new infrastructure projects in the region, such as a high-speed rail network, a double-track rail system, road construction and an upgrade of Ranong port. The SEC development plan includes:

‐ Upgrading Ranong port to facilitate shipments to India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh;

‐ Expansion of the Bangkok-Hua Hin high speed rail project to Chumphon and Surat Thani;

‐ Development of fruit distribution center in Chumphon; ‐ Development of an Agro Bioeconomy Center in Surat Thani; ‐ Construction of double track rail network from Chumphon to Ranong.

Following the launch of the ‘Prompt Pay’ system in 2016, Thailand has adopted the Payment System Act (entered into force on 16 April 2018) and the Digital Assets Decree (entered into force on 14 May 2018). The Payment System Act will further enhances the ease of doing financial transaction within the country though secured payment systems and electronic money that meet international standard. At the same time, the Digital Assets Decree lays down a transparent framework for the issuance of Initial Coin Offering (ICO) to raise funds for investment, and the use of cryptocurrency or digital tokens in financial transaction.

Thailand is revising its regulations on public-private partnership (PPP) in infrastructure development. On 3 April 2018, the cabinet endorsed in principle the draft Public-Private Investment Promotion Act. This new PPP act will focus on facilitation and promotion of joint public-private investment projects, streamlining the PPP procedure, and enhancing transparency of the PPP process. On 27 June 2018, the Cabinet also endorsed the establishment of the Public-Private Investment Promotion Fund under the new PPP Act. The new Act currently sit at the National Legislative Assembly for deliberation.

On 6 April 2018, national reform plans have been announced on 11 designated reform areas. The economic reform plan will focus on 3 issues, namely 1) enhancement of national competitiveness, 2) equitable and inclusive growth, and 3) reform of economic institutions and procedures. The reforms aim to support the implementation of the 20-year National Strategy in order to ensure continuity of policy direction and smooth implementation of the next 4 Social and Economic Development Plans (12th– 15th NESDB Plan) through Pracharat mechanism (public-private-people partnership).

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The Thai government launched a policy to develop smart cities in major provinces throughout the country. The initial development will focus on pilot projects in Bangkok, Chiang Mai, Phuket and Khon Kaen as well as the three provinces within the EEC. Smart City is designed to upgrade people’s quality of life in 7 intelligent platforms (7 Smarts), namely efficient transport (Smart Mobility), education and social equitability (Smart People), life security (Smart Living), ease of doing business (Smart Economy), efficient public services (Smart Governance), green and safe energy (Smart Energy) and clean, efficient and balanced management of resources and environment (Smart Environment). Smart Environment is set as a compulsory component for smart city development. Special incentives for investment in smart city development are available through the Board of Investment. These incentives include 8 year exemption of corporate income tax, and import duty exemption.

Thailand is repositioning its highly successful tourism industry with a view to expand tourism destinations to ‘Tier 2’ cities. The new plan includes development of ‘Thailand Riviera’ along the West Coast of Thailand (the royal coast), covering 4 provinces and famous tourism spots such as Hua-Hin and Cha-am. The plan will focus on building sustainable and high-quality tourism destination through the development of community-based tourism, golf tourism, and investment in infrastructure needed to support the area as world-class tourism destination. Notable projects include the development of Bangkok-Hua Hin high-speed train, the redevelopment of Hua-Hin airport, Spa city Rayong, Marina at Manao Bay, and Sand Dune at Bang Berd Beach. Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC)

The EEC Act has entered into force on 15 May 2018. The Act paves the way for the establishment of special economic promotion zone for targeted industries, whereby various approval processes will be expedited and special priviledges will be granted such as:

o Exemption from corporate income tax for up to 15 years and 17% personal income tax which is the lowest in ASEAN,

o Matching grants for investment, R&D, innovation, human resource development for targeted industries

o Land ownership for BOI promoted projects and lease rights to state’s land for 50 years, renewable upon approval for a further 49 years,

o Issuance of a smart visa for a 4-year period instead of the current one-year working visa (non-immigrant B). Holders of smart visa will not require a work permit and will be given an extension from 90-day reporting to annual reporting. Dependents (spouse and children) of the smart visa holders are given the right to live and work in Thailand equivalent to the visa holder.

In 2018, total application for investment in the EEC has already reached $6.2 billion USD (Jan – Sep 2018) with 319 projects approved by BOI. For the first half of 2018, applications in the EEC has accounted for 67% ($5.58

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billion USD) of the country’s total investment, with 95% ($5.33 billion USD) in the 10 targeted industries.

Notable infrastructure projects in EEC has made progress as scheduled:

- The High-Speed Rail Linking 3 Airport Project ($7 billion USD; Invitation to Tender released on 30 May 2018/ Tenders Submission on 12 November 2018/ Open for service by 2023) - 31 firms including those from Japan, France, China, Italy, Malaysia and South Korea have brought the bidding documents.

- 3rd phase development of Laem Cha Bang Port ($2.5 billion USD; Under environmental study/ Bidding Package available 5 November 2018/ Tenders Submission in January 2019/ Open for service by 2023)

- 3rd phase expansion of Map Ta Phut Port ($0.3 billion USD; Under environmental study/ Bidding Package available 9 November 2018/ Tenders Submission in February 2019/ Open for service by 2025)

- Dual-track railway from Chacheongsao - Klong Sib Kao - Kang Koi ($1.8 billion USD; Feasibility study to be completed by 2019/ Open for service by 2023)

- U-Tapao international airport development as the 3rd full-scaled commercial airport of Thailand ($5.7 billion USD; development will include construction of 2nd runway and taxiway to serve the Eastern Airport City/ Bidding Package available 16 November 2018/ Tenders Submission in March 2019/ Open for service by 2023) - 42 multinational companies from China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Turkey and Malaysia, have bought the bidding documents.

- Bangkok-Chonburi-Pattaya Laem Cha Bang Motorway, and Laem Cha Bang - Nakorn Ratchasima Motorway ($2.8 billion USD)

- The Digital Park Thailand (EECd) project will open for bidding within December 2018.

All key infrastructure projects in the EEC have opened for international bidding since November 2018. It is expected that all contracts could be signed within April 2019. These projects are implemented under EEC PPP track, where the approval process has been shortened to expedite investment. Successful bidders may hold up to 75% of total shares in juristic entity set up to undertake the project. Government agencies or state enterprises under the same foreign government are allowed to tender separately, provided that they have proof of independent management.

In November 2018, the Thai government has added 2 industries – (1) National Defense and (2) Human Resources Development and Education - to the list of targeted industries identified as the ‘New Engine of Growth’ under the Thailand 4.0 model, bringing the total of 12 targeted industries. The first 10 targeted industries, cover the first 5 S-curve, are 1) next-generation automotive, 2) smart electronics, 3) medical and wellness tourism, 4) agriculture and biotechnology, and

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5) food for the future, and the new 5 S-curve are 1) robotics, 2) aviation and logistics, 3) biofuels and biochemical, 4) digital, and 5) medical hub.

Upcoming Trade and Investment Events

The Ministry of Energy together with PTT Public Company Limited and the

Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand will co-organize “Future Energy Asia Exhibition & Conference 2018” during 12 – 14 December 2018 at BITEC, Bangkok. This event is the region’s leading annual energy exhibition and conference, aimed to foster a secure, affordable and low-carbon energy mix across Asia. The event will provide opportunities to meet with NOCs and IOCs as well as power producers, utility companies, clean-tech providers, service companies and engineering contractors.

The Halal Science Center, Chulalongkorn University and the Central Islamic Council of Thailand (CICOT) will co-host “Thailand Halal Assembly 2018,” under the theme, “Precision Halalization in Bioeconomy Era”,” during 14 - 16 December 2018 at BITEC, Bangkok. The key event features the 11th Halal Science, Industry & Business (HASIB) Conference, Halal CBs Meeting and International Halal Expo 2018 (TIHEX.)

The Electronic Transactions Development Agency (ETDA) under the Ministry of Digital Economy and Society will organize “Thailand e-Commerce Week 2019” under the theme “e-Commerce in the Park: show, share, challenge & shop, empowering Young Talent for SMEs Go Online” during 31 January – 2 February 2019 at Srinakharinwirot University. The event includes exhibitions on the progress of e-Commerce development in Thailand, SMEs showcases, workshops as well as the launch of “e-Commerce Park” projects which aims to empower young SMEs talents.

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Department of International Economic Affairs

December 2018