sheep, black swans, and the future of...
TRANSCRIPT
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Sheep, Black Swans, and the Future of Agriculture
John WalkerProfessor and Director of Research
Texas A&M AgriLife ResearchSan Angelo, TX
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THIS IS THE PROBLEM!
0.0
5,000.0
10,000.0
15,000.0
20,000.0
25,000.0
30,000.0
35,000.0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Bree
ding
Ew
es (1
,000
hd)
Year
U.S. Sheep Inventory
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Theories for the Decline inU.S. Sheep Numbers
• Predator
• Money
• Efficiency
• Labor
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Predation
• Somewhat special problem of U.S. Sheep Industry.
• Some producers are able to cope with predation.
• Ultimately, it is a labor problem.
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PredationProblem or Fact?
"If a problem has no solution, it may not be a problem, but a fact - not to be solved, but to be coped with over time."Shimon Peres
President of Israel.
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Response of Stock Sheep Retention to Lamb Prices
0
1
2
3
4
3-year 5-year 10-year
Elas
ticity
1924 - 1983
Trend in ewe numbers
Source: Wipple & Menkhaus, 1989
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Response of Ewe Numbers to Lamb Prices
0
1
2
3
4
Short-term 5-year 10-year
Elas
ticity
1961 - 1995
Trend in ewe numbers
Source: Jones & Schroeder ,1998
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Ewe Inventory Is Less Responsive to Lamb Price Than in The Past
Wipple & Menkhaus, 1989
0
1
2
3
4
3-year 5-year 10-year
Elas
ticity
1924 - 1983
Jones & Schroeder, 1998
0
1
2
3
4
Short-term 5-year 10-year
Elas
ticity
1961 - 1995
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Profit
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
16019
7219
7319
7419
7519
7619
7719
7819
7919
8019
8119
8219
8319
8419
8519
8619
87
Inve
ntor
y ch
ange
rela
tive
to 1
972
%
Rece
ipts
–Ca
sh E
xpen
ses
$/AU
SheepCattleStock SheepBeef Cattle
Source: Stillman et al., 1990& USDA-NASS
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Effect of Economic Returns on Sheep & Cattle Inventories
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
-50 0 50 100 150
Inve
ntor
y ch
ange
rela
tive
to 1
972
%
Receipt – Cash Expenses $/AU
Data adapted from: Stillman et al., 1990& USDA-NASS
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Increasing Demand
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U.S. Per Capita Lamb Consumption
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.019
1019
1519
2019
2519
3019
3519
4019
4519
5019
5519
6019
6519
7019
7519
8019
8519
9019
9520
0020
0520
10
Bone
less
per
cap
ita co
nsum
ptio
n (lb
s) WW IIWW I
Korea
Vietnam
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Meats Consumed in the U.S.
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.019
0919
1419
1919
2419
2919
3419
3919
4419
4919
5419
5919
6419
6919
7419
7919
8419
8919
9419
9920
0420
09
Bone
less
per
cap
ita c
onsu
mpt
ion
(lbs)
FishPoultryPorkBeefLambVeal
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U.S. Lamb & Mutton Supply
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Carc
ass w
eigh
t (x
1 m
il. lb
s)
DomesticImportTotal
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Lamb Demand: Price-to-Quantity 1975 - 1995
100120140160180200220240260
1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2
Consumption (Lbs/capita)
Cos
t (C
ents
/Lbs
GD
P D
efla
ted)
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Money/EconomicsThat’s all I’ve got to say about that.
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Production Efficiency
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Improving reproductive efficiency has not increased ewe numbers.
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
0
5
10
15
20
25
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Lam
b cr
op (%
)
Bree
ding
ew
es (m
il. h
d)
Breeding Ewes Lamb Crop
Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2013
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Breeding Ewe Inventory Is Not Related to Percent Lamb Crop
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
125%
130%
135%
Lam
b cr
op (%
) 9 States126% Increase12 States9% Decrease11 States37% Decrease
Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2013
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Liebig's Law of the MinimumProduction is controlled by the most limiting resource.
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Labor or Lifestyle Norms
0.0
5,000.0
10,000.0
15,000.0
20,000.0
25,000.0
30,000.0
35,000.0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Bree
ding
Ew
es (1
,000
hd)
Year
U.S. Sheep Inventory
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Labor Intensive vs. MechanizedCorn Production
634
4082
1721
11
82289400
0100020003000400050006000700080009000
10000
LaborIntensiveMechanized
Source: Pimentel, 2009
1940
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Compared to most other agricultural enterprises, sheep have had fewer opportunities to mechanize and reduce labor.
Feeding Sheep 2013
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Future of Agriculture
DRIVERS
• Food production & population growth
• Environmental conditions
• Farm policy
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Growing Concerns About Food Production & The Enviroment
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2006
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1790
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1890
Sir William CrookesChemist
W. O. AtwaterNutritionist
Jeremiah RuskSecretary of Agriculture
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1920
Sir William CrookesChemist
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1930
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1940 – 1950
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1960 – 1970
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1980
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1990 and beyond
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The Environment
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Environmental policy is about politics!
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Many of one generation’s great fears are remembered by the next generation, if they are remembered at all. As quaint curiosities. Surely some of the concerns that we feel for the transformation of the biosphere or for the fate of its elements will baffle future generations. Predictions are not falsified only because the concerns were ill-founded or the hypothesized relationships were wrong. On the contrary, the gloomiest of forecast may not be realized because society takes them seriously and acts upon them.
Kates, Turner and Clark 1990
“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future. - Niels Bohr
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The Black Swan
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Funding of Conservation vs. Production in the Corn Belt
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
Conservation Production
USD
A ex
pend
iture
s (bi
l. $) Federal policy now is
driving fencerow-to-fencerow farming again, just as it did in the 1970s.
Source: Environmental Working Group Losing Ground, 2011
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A farm policy where the top priority is conservation and sustainability .
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The Future According to Drucker 2009
In all developed countries, the strategy of all institutions will have to be based on the assumption of a shrinking population, and especially of a shrinking young population.
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The New Labor Pool
3424 24 23
5663 57 57
10 13 19 20
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
1970 2009 2030 2050Under Age 18 Ages 18-64 Ages 65+
Source: Population Research Bureau, 2011
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2 Potential solutions to declining sheep numbers
• More conservation oriented farm policy.
• Engage a growing labor force.
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Contribution of the different size operations to animal numbers is similar in sheep and cattle.
36%
20%
31%
13%
28%
17%
38%
17%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Sheep < 100Cattle < 50
100-49950-99
500-4,999100-499
>5,000 Sheep> 500 Cattle
Perc
ent o
f Inv
ento
ry
Size of Operation (hd)
SheepCattle
Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2013
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The sheep industry has a much higher percentage of small operations than the cattle industry.
94%
5% 1% 0%
28%17%
38%
17%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Sheep < 100Cattle < 50
100-49950-99
500-4,999100-499
>5,000 Sheep> 500 Cattle
Perc
ent o
f ope
ratio
ns
Size of Operatioin (hd)
SheepCattle
Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2013
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A few sheep operations produce a much higher percent of the sheep than cattle operations.
0 4
31
130
1 1 1 10
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Sheep < 100Cattle < 50
100-49950-99
500-4,999100-499
>5,000 Sheep> 500 Cattle
Conc
entr
atio
n Ra
tio
Size of Operation (hd)
SheepCattle
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Percent of Sheep Operations by Size& ASI Survey Respondents
94%
5% 1% 0%
63%
24%
5% 6%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
< 100 100-499 500-4,999 >5,000Size of Sheep Operation (hd)
NASS SurveyASI Survey Respondents
Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2013& ASI 2010 Survey
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Do family members plan to take over the sheep operation when you retire?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Size of Sheep Operation (hd)
Perc
ent a
nsw
erin
g Y
ES
< 100100-499500-9991,000-4,999>5,000
Source: ASI 2010 Survey
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Percent of Breeding Sheep Inventory in Large and Small Operations
85%93%
98% 99% 99%
15%
2% 2% 1% 1%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
1995 2000 2005 2010 2012
<500>501
Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2013
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2012 Change in Breeding Sheep Relative to 2000
Washington
Oregon
California
Nevada
Idaho
Montana
Wyoming
ColoradoUtah
New MexicoArizona
Texas
Oklahoma
Kansas
Nebraska
South Dakota
North DakotaMinnesota
Wisconsin
Illinois
Iowa
Missouri
Arkansas
Louisiana
Alabama
Tennessee
Michigan
Pennsylvania
New York
Vermont
Georgia
Florida
Mississippi
Kentucky
South Carolina
North Carolina
MarylandOhioDelaware
Indiana West Virginia
New Jersey
Connecticut
Massachutes
Maine
Rhode Islad
Virginia
New Hampshire
Increase avg. = 130%
Small decrease avg. = -9%
Large decrease avg. = -37%
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2000 - 2012 Breeding Ewe Population Dynamics
-60.00%
-40.00%
-20.00%
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
140.00%
Increase SmallDecrease
LargeDecrease
Change in Breeding Ewes
0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%
Percent of Total Breeding Ewes
20002012
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That’s My Story
Well that’s my storyand I’m sticking
to it!