Sharon WilhelmInterim Associate Vice President

High School Graduates

55,000

57,000

59,000

61,000

63,000

65,000

67,000

69,000

71,000

73,000

75,000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

K-12 School Enrollment is declining.

Between 2001-2006, 69% of school districts declined.

Age structure of K-12 students is older.

Births in Wisconsin were low in 1990s and early 2000s.

28,000

29,000

30,000

31,000

32,000

33,000

34,000

35,000

36,000

37,000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Female Graduates Male Graduates

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

African American Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander American Indian

4.0% 4.8% 6.4% 7.0% 6.7% 6.5%2.0% 2.6%3.9% 5.7% 8.4% 10.7%

91.0% 89.0%85.1% 82.3% 80.1% 77.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1991 2001 2006 2011 2016 2019

African American Hispanic Asian/PI AIAN NH White

Peak numbers 2008, then projected decline Similar trends for males and females overall Similar for different race/ethnic groups, except Hispanics

who will see substantial increase Changing race/ethnic make-up of population under 18 will

likely introduce new challenges and opportunities

Wisconsin’s Public School Enrollment: Past, Present, Future

High School Graduates going on to Higher

Education

2004 2006

Wisconsin HS Graduates 66,381 68,585

Enrolled in Higher Education 58.2% 60.2%

Enrolled in Wisconsin: 47.5% 49.0%

UW System 33.0% 32.5%

Four-Year Institutions 28.0% 28.0%

UW Colleges 5.0% 4.6%

Private Wisconsin 6.2% 6.7%

Public Two-Year (WTCS) 8.4% 9.9%

Enrolled Out-of-State 10.7% 11.1%

Not Enrolled in Higher Education 41.8% 39.8%

WI MN IL IN IA MI

High School Graduates

66,381 64,382 136,443 62,557 36,509 115,822

Enrolled in Higher Education

58.2% 62.3% 54.3% 55.6% 60.9% 54.5%

Fall 1997 Fall 2006 Fall 2007

Change from

Previous Year

Changefrom 1997

HC% HC HC

% HC HC % HC HC

% HC HC

% HC

Top Quart 11,251 47.5 10,943 45.1 11,125 44.5 182 26% -126 -10%

2nd Quart 8,099 34.2 8,157 33.6 8,294 33.2 137 19% 195 15%

Top Half 19,350 81.7 19,100 78.7 19,419 77.7 319 45% 69 5%

3rd Quart 3,497 14.8 4,191 17.3 4,358 17.4 167 24% 861 66%

4th Quart 826 3.5 985 4.1 1,205 4.8 220 31% 379 26%

Total* 23,673100

% 24,276100

% 24,982 100% 706100

% 1,309100

%

*Excludes students who did not have a high school rank.

HS Rank

Fall 2005 Fall 2006 Fall 2007

All New Freshme

n% Need

Remedial

All New Freshme

n% Need

Remedial

All New Freshme

n% Need

Remedial

Top Quart 11,426 7.6% 10,943 7.1% 11,125 8.0%%

2nd Quart 8,264 25.4% 8,157 25.7% 8,294 27.2%

3rd Quart 4,286 39.7% 4,191 40.5% 4,358 43.6%

4th Quart 1,057 50.3% 959 55.0% 1,205 57.2%

Total* 25,033 20.8% 24,276 21.1% 24,982 23.0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

Per

cen

t of B

ase

Yea

r (1

976)

EM I EM II EM III EM 21

64,522

20,512

31.8%

56,589

17,527

31.0%

52,870

16,541

31.3%

63,833

20,682

32.4%

66,381

21,918

33.0%

62,464

24,986

40.0%

76,807

18,908

24.6%

Wisconsin High School Graduates

Wisconsin Immediate New Freshmen

UW System Access Rate

23,006

36.8%

76 86 90 00 04 0794 15 18

Source of Wisconsin high school graduates projections: UW-Madison Applied Population Laboratory, 2008

Access Under DifferentEnrollment Scenarios

2006Current Access

2015Scenario #1 Scenario

#2

WI High School Graduates 68,585 62,464 62,464

WI Immediate New Freshmen 22,323 23,006 24,986

Access Rate 32.5% 36.8% 40.0%

WI Immediate New Freshmen by HS Rank

Pct by HS Rank

Access Rate

Access Rate

Access Rate

Top Quartile 45% 58.6% 66.3% 72.0%

2nd Quartile 34% 44.9% 50.8% 55.2%

3rd Quartile 17% 22.3% 25.2% 27.4%

Bottom Quartile 3% 4.4% 5.0% 5.4%

All 100% 32.5% 36.8% 40.0%

•Current access rate: 32.5%•Scenario #1: New freshmen at 2007 level•Scenario #2: Increase access rate to 40%•Assumes no change in admissions selectivity

Potential to serve older adult populations

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

US

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa

Michigan

Minnesota

Wisconsin

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

US

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa

Michigan

Minnesota

Wisconsin

WI MN IA IL IN MI

# Enrolle

d

% of All UG

% of All UG

% of All UG

% of All UG

% of All UG

% of All UG

Public 4-Year 15,810 12% 16% 8% 16% 21% 16%

Public Two-Year 54,139 47% 35% 27% 45% 51% 40%

UW Colleges

2,479 20%

WTCS 51,660 50%

Private 13,445 29% 16% 23% 21% 27% 42%

All Sectors 83,394 29% 24% 21% 33% 29% 30%

Data source: IPEDS, Fall 2005

First to Second Year Retention Rates at Institution Where

Started

Six-Year Graduation Rate at Any UW

Institution

Aged 25 and Over (3 year avg.)

64.6% 30.1%

Total 79.2% 64.8%

25.1% 27.0% 30.4%

8.8% 7.4%9.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Wisconsin United States Minnesota

Bachelor's or higher degree Associate degree

33.9% 34.4%

40.1%

22%

7%

28%

23% 24%

13%

25%

8%

29% 28%26%

16%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

25 years and over

18 to 24 years

25 to 34 years

35 to 44 years

45 to 64 years

65 years and over

2000 2006

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

25 years and over

18 to 24 years

25 to 34 years

35 to 44 years

45 to 64 years

65 years and over

Wisconsin United States Minnesota