share wp 3 task 3.3 european crustal strain-rates ingv, norsar salvatore barba istituto nazionale di...
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SHARE WP 3SHARE WP 3
Task 3.3Task 3.3European crustal strain-ratesEuropean crustal strain-ratesINGV, NORSARINGV, NORSAR
Salvatore BarbaSalvatore BarbaIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, RomeIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome
Task 3.3 European crustal strain-ratesTask 3.3 European crustal strain-rates
Deliverables:Deliverables:D3.5.D3.5. Reference strain rate models for the Euro-Mediterranean region Reference strain rate models for the Euro-Mediterranean region(INGV, Month 24)(INGV, Month 24)
Comments: Comments: - - Results from national efforts already availableResults from national efforts already available- A robust alternative to observed slip rates (almost non-existent - A robust alternative to observed slip rates (almost non-existent throughout most of central and northern Europe) throughout most of central and northern Europe)
Problems:Problems:- - Will not be able to resolve the entire study areaWill not be able to resolve the entire study area- Procedure is not standardized- Procedure is not standardized
NEW!NEW!- Kinematic models will benefit areas with sufficient GPS data- Kinematic models will benefit areas with sufficient GPS data
Model propertiesModel properties•Thickness of Moho and LithosphereThickness of Moho and Lithosphere•Average DensitiesAverage Densities•Heath flowHeath flow
Calibration datasetsCalibration datasets•GPS velocitiesGPS velocities•Strain axes Strain axes •Fault kinematicsFault kinematics
Blind testsBlind tests•Slip ratesSlip rates•Earthquake ratesEarthquake rates
OutputOutput•Slip and strain ratesSlip and strain rates•Earthquake ratesEarthquake rates
DataData
MonthsMonths 22 44 66 88 1010 1212 1414 1616 1818
Update literature searchUpdate literature search XX XX
Talk to partnersTalk to partners XX XX XX XX
Data CollectionData Collection XX XX XX
Build modelsBuild models XX XX XX XX
Run ModelsRun Models XX XX XX XX
ChecksChecks XX XX
Time planTime plan
Composite Source (CS)Composite Source (CS)
Unsegmented (no rupture ends identified/predicted)Unsegmented (no rupture ends identified/predicted) No assumption on recurrence modelNo assumption on recurrence model
Slip rates from Finite Element Modeling: ItalySlip rates from Finite Element Modeling: Italy
BarbaBarba [INGV-DPC Report, 2007] [INGV-DPC Report, 2007] Barba et al.Barba et al. [GRL, 2008] [GRL, 2008]
Slip rates and strains from GPS: Germany & S. ScandinaviaSlip rates and strains from GPS: Germany & S. Scandinavia
Kaiser et al.Kaiser et al. [2005] based on GPS data [2005] based on GPS data
Slip rates and strains from thin shell modeling: Alboran SeaSlip rates and strains from thin shell modeling: Alboran Sea
Jimenez-Munt et al.Jimenez-Munt et al. [2001] [2001]
Slip rates from thin shell modeling: Ibero-MaghrebSlip rates from thin shell modeling: Ibero-Maghreb
Negredo et al.Negredo et al. [2002] [2002]
Crustal velocities from thin shell modeling: Aegean SeaCrustal velocities from thin shell modeling: Aegean Sea
Bird Bird [2003][2003]
Available crustal strain rate modelsAvailable crustal strain rate models
Italy & Central Med.Barba et al., 2008
Ibero-Maghreb regionNegredo et al., 2002
Alboran SeaJimenez-Munt et al., 2001
Aegean SeaBird, 2003
Germany & S. ScandinaviaKaiser et al., 2005
Based on: Seismogenic Areas and 2/3 average slip rates from DISS 3.0.2Based on: Seismogenic Areas and 2/3 average slip rates from DISS 3.0.2
Time-independent probabilities (100 years)Time-independent probabilities (100 years)Steven Ward, UC Santa CruzSteven Ward, UC Santa Cruz
Time-independent probabilities (100 years)Time-independent probabilities (100 years)Steven Ward, UC Santa CruzSteven Ward, UC Santa Cruz
Based on: Seismogenic Areas from DISS 3.0.2, slip rates from FEMBased on: Seismogenic Areas from DISS 3.0.2, slip rates from FEM
Time-dependent probabilities (30 years, Polya trees)Time-dependent probabilities (30 years, Polya trees)Renata Rotondi, CNR, MilanRenata Rotondi, CNR, Milan
Based on: Seismogenic Areas from DISS 3.0.2, CPTI04, macroregionsBased on: Seismogenic Areas from DISS 3.0.2, CPTI04, macroregions