shadow election i hub nairobi 10 january 2012
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finding the best candidates and solutions
Shadow Election
Richard von Kaufmann // iHub Nairobi presentation 10.01.2012
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Who is Richard von Kaufmann?
Best Early-Stage Startup Barcelona 4 July 2008
Only Nordic startup selected
co-founded 2007
Media Lab Helsinki, 2006Election Machine
Intention Broadcasting presenter Graz, Austria September 2009
joined 2010
Filmmaker, 1995-2001
Creative DirectorCactus Marketing & AdvertisingAddis Ababa, Ethiopia2001-2003
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“Traditional” Candidate Matcher
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Shadow Election
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The wisdom of crowds
Slides in this section courtesy of Zipipop, the Finnish social media agency
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The Wisdom of Crowds
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds
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The Wisdom of Crowds
Francis Galton, 1906
Butchered weight:
Average of crowd guess: 1,197 pounds
Actual weight: 1,198
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Jelly Bean JarAverage of 56 students=871
Actual amount=850
Only one student guessed better
http://www.amazon.com/Never-Pat-Bear-About-Signs/dp/B0006XX08K
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Wisdom of the crowds at work
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Hive Mind
image from bizzybusybees.co.uk
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Crowd-wisdom on the Web
420m unique monthly visitors
20 million articles
300 languages
60% of web-servers run Linux 40 million monthly visitors
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How Google uses crowd-wisdom
link = vote
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Four conditions of a smart crowd:
•Diversity of opinion
•Independence
•Decentralization
•Aggregation
*Conditions outlined in The Wisdom of the Crowds by James Surowiecki
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Diversity of Opinion• private information
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Independence• not influenced by others
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Decentralization• specialist, local knowledge
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Aggregate •mechanism for turning private judgements into collective decisions
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Scale it up•more input produces better results
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information + error
crowd error probability averaged = ~0(i.e -10+50-60+20=0)
“information” with reduced error
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Crowdsourcing Solutions
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The power of intuition
New findings in cognitive science are
showing that intuition (gut feeling)
can be thought of as “condensed
experience” and in many circumstances can be more effective
than in depth analytical study.
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Rating parameters (intuition)
User’s comparison to the wisdom of the crowd
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finding the best candidates and solutions
Shadow Election
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salesforce.com, 2011
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Democracia_real_YA_Madrid.jpg
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Sustained peace
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Current social media limitations
How to make the message of the “crowd” understandable?
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Our solution• Propose questions
• Give answers
• Rate other people’s answers
• See the people with the best-rated solutions move up the “live” chart
• Show support by indicating your vote for one of the candidates
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Initial trialShadow Election was first trialled as Vaali.fi in the 2011 Finnish Parliamentary Elections.
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Media content
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Advocacy toolOrganizations can use it as an advocacy tool by requesting that politicians answer their specific questions.
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The essence of the Shadow Election tool is to use intuition and crowd wisdom to promote the best candidates and find the best solutions.
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Why’s it so important?
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'The human beans is making rules to suit themselves,' the BFG went on. 'But the rules they is making do not suit the little piggy-wiggies. Am I right or left?'
'Right,' Sophie said.
'Giants is also making rules. Their rules is not suiting the human beans. Everybody is making his own rules to suit himself.”
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Amnesty’s main weapons when it started in 1961 was writing letters and news paper articles.
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Finland is consistently in the top 5 least corrupt countries
Transparency International
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There is a strong correlation between GDP per capita and Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index (CPI).
Despite relatively low natural resources Finland has a high GDP per capita.
Gapminder.org
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http://blog.transparency.org/2011/12/07/what-makes-new-zealand-denmark-finland-sweden-and-others-%E2%80%9Ccleaner%E2%80%9D-than-most-countries/
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Good laws are not enough“The capacity to facilitate commercial transactions through a system of laws fairly enforced is critical to the development of the private sector.”
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Engaging politicians in more open discussions
=
Better solution finding and more accountability
=
Fairer laws, and the fairer enforcement of the law, so that everyone benefits
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Thanks!Richard von Kaufmann
Creative Director // Chairman
Tel. 045 11 222 73
Email: [email protected]
www.realitycreatingmedia.com