seven things everyone should know about climate policy · slide 2. seven things everyone should...

CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY RESEARCHCIRES/University of Colorado at Boulderhttp://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu

Seven ThingsEveryone Should Know

About Climate PolicyRoger A. Pielke, Jr.

University of Colorado1 June 2018

3rd IEEJ/APERC Joint International Energy Symposium 2018

Tokyo, Japan

IEEJ：June 2018 © IEEJ2018

Seven things everyone should know about climate policy

1. Economic damage from weather disasters as proportionof global GDP has decreased since 1990

2. Climate impact studies favor an extreme, implausiblescenario for 21st century emissions (RCP 8.5)

3. Almost all stabilization scenarios of IAMs used by theIPCC depend on the wide deployment of technologiesthat do not exist (BECCS)

4. There is little evidence that climate policy since 1992 hasinfluenced global decarbonization rates (CO2/GDP)

5. The most important lever for deep decarbonization iscarbon intensity (CO2/TPES)

6. US climate policy is subject to dramatic shifts because,since the 1990s, US climate policy has occurred viaexecutive action rather than through Congressionallegislation

7. The IPCC does not serve as an “honest broker of policyalternatives” – But it should


1. Economic damage from weather disasters asproportion of global GDP has decreased since 1990

An indicator of the UN Sustainable Development Goals and targets of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development:

• Goal 1: End poverty in all its formseverywhere

• Goal 11. Make cities and humansettlements inclusive, safe, resilient andsustainable

Indicator

“substantially decrease the direct economic losses relative to global gross domestic product [GDP] caused by disasters”


Direct economic losses from weather disastersas % Global GDP: 1990-2017


2. Climate impact studies favor an extreme, implausiblescenario for 21st century emissions (RCP 8.5) IEEJ：June 2018 © IEEJ2018

If you read a media report about climate impacts, it is likely that the story is based on RCP 8.5


3. Almost all stabilization scenarios of IAMs used by the IPCC depend onthe wide deployment of technologies that do not exist (BECCS)

“[Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage] is explicitly being put forth as an important mitigation option by the majority of integrated assessment model (IAM) scenarios aimed at keeping warming below 2°C in the IPCC’s fifth assessment report (AR5). Indeed, in these scenarios, IAMs often foresee absorption of CO2 via BECCS up to (and in some cases exceeding) 1,000 Gt CO2 over the course of the century”

Fuss, Sabine, et al. "Betting on negative emissions." Nature Climate Change 4.10 (2014): 850.

http://cicero.uio.no/no/posts/klima/love-it-or-hate-it-heres-three-reasons-why-we-still-need-ccs

Uncomfortable reality: Climate policies (including the Paris Accord) focused on the stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide at low levels are based not in science, but science fiction

SSP scenarios with“negative emissions”


http://cicero.uio.no/no/posts/klima/love-it-or-hate-it-heres-three-reasons-why-we-still-need-ccs

4. There is little evidence that climate policy has influencedglobal decarbonization rates (CO2/GDP)

TheKayaIdentity


Global decarbonization rates are unchanged before and during the climate policy era

Sources: IEA. PwC

BeforeClimatePolicy

AfterRio 1992

AfterKyoto 1997

Rate needed to achieve

stabilization at 450ppm (2 deg C)


Decarbonization in 5 countries and the world since 2000

Source: IEA


5. The most important lever for deepdecarbonization is carbon intensity (CO2/TPES)


Energy Intensity and Carbon Intensity

Carbon emissions = C = P * GDP * TE * C------ ---- ----P GDP TE

energy intensitycarbon intensity

Technology

TheKayaIdentity


Change in global energy intensity and carbon intensity: 1971-2015 (1990 = 100)

Source: IEA

In 2015 global carbon intensity was the same as in 1985


6. US climate policy is subject to dramatic shifts . . .

• UNFCCC• Congress & GW Bush (yes)

• Kyoto• Clinton (yes)• GHW Bush (no)

• Paris• Obama (yes)• Trump (no)

. . . because, since the 1990s, US climate policy has occurred via executive action rather than through Congressional legislation


7. The IPCC does not serve as an “honest broker of policy alternatives” – But it should

• An “honest broker of policy options” seeks to clarify a broad set of options or even to expand available choice

• The IPCC focuses on a limited set of policy options

• For instance, why include BECCS in almost all future scenarios but not scenarios that center on a dramatic expansion of nuclear energy?

• What are the options for the decommissioning of global fossil fuel infrastructure?

• What are the alternatives to the Paris Agreement?

• If a 2 degree C target is not achievable, what then?

• By not emphasizing alternatives to status quo climate policy, the IPCC reinforces what has been so far, policy failure


Seven things everyone should know about climate policy

1. Economic damage from weather disasters as proportionof global GDP has decreased since 1990

2. Climate impact studies favor an extreme, implausiblescenario for 21st century emissions (RCP 8.5)

3. Almost all stabilization scenarios of IAMs used by theIPCC depend on the wide deployment of technologiesthat do not exist (BECCS)

4. There is little evidence that climate policy since 1992 hasinfluenced global decarbonization rates (CO2/GDP)

5. The most important lever for deep decarbonization iscarbon intensity (CO2/TPES)

6. US climate policy is subject to dramatic shifts because,since the 1990s, US climate policy has occurred viaexecutive action rather than through Congressionallegislation

7. The IPCC does not serve as an “honest broker of policyalternatives” – But it should


Thank you

[email protected] Papers etc. can be downloaded from:

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu http://theclimatefix.wordpress.com


Contact :[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/

http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com

seven things everyone should know about climate policy · slide 2. seven things everyone should...

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