setting goals and getting started with scenarios
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Setting Goals and Getting Started with Scenarios. Emily McKenzie. Montserrat. Valuation: Centre Hills, Montserrat. LESSON # 1: Establish Goals, Be Specific. What change in decision-making do you seek? Who can make that change happen? When will decisions be made? - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Setting Goals and Getting Started with Scenarios
Emily McKenzie
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Montserrat
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Valuation: Centre Hills, Montserrat
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• What change in decision-making do you seek?• Who can make that change happen? • When will decisions be made?• What info do they need / seek? • How can ES info help?
LESSON # 1: Establish Goals, Be Specific
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LESSON # 2: Prioritize process
1. Credible2. Legitimate (unbiased, inclusive)3. Salient (relevant, timely)
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LESSON # 3: Make outputs relevant
• Relevant ecosystem services• Suitable outputs (biophysical, econ)• Appropriate scale• Scenarios• Post-processing analyses
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Activity
• How can you enhance credibility, salience and legitimacy of InVEST results?
• Which ecosystem services are most relevant?• Which ecosystem service outputs are suitable?• What scale is most appropriate? • What scenarios would you compare?
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LESSON # 4: Tell Stories, Use Scenarios
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Valuation study in Bermuda
After
Before
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Scenarios can hone your message
• Bermuda’s reefs worth– $722 million p.a.– 10-17% of GDP
But what would be costs and benefits of new shipping channels?
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Why use scenarios?
• Identify tradeoffs• Consider new policies• ‘Future-proof’ policies• Air conflicts, develop consensus
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• Scenario Guidance• Scenario Case Studies• InSEAM • Scenario Generator• InVEST linked to IDRISI Land Change Modeler
NatCap Scenario Tools
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Conclusions
1. Be specific about goals2. Recognize importance
of process3. Make sure InVEST
outputs are relevant4. Use scenarios
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www.naturalcapitalproject.org/policy_tools
– Screening Criteria– InVEST in Practice
– Scenario Tools
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Spare slides
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Select sites carefully
• Will it deliver service & conservation?
• Are conditions supportive?
Screening Criteria + ? -Service deliveryMeasurabilityScale / replicableAlternatives…
Strong opportunityHigh riskInformation gap
An assessment framework
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1. Secure Government or Institutional Support
2. Conduct Biophysical Assessment
Demonstrate potential economic efficiencies and social benefits of PWS
1. Show current ES status2. Identify where to distribute payments
3. Predict how ES will change under PWS4. Prioritize significant land management alternatives
3. Develop Governance
4. Identify Service Buyers
1. Identify geographic areas of current ES provision2. Identify geographic areas of potential ES provision
3. Assess ES returns of management options
5. Identify Service Providers
Identify where ES are delivered
6. Set Prices or Payments Provide ES values as base for negotiation
7. Institutional Assessment
8. Assess and Develop Capacity
9. Define Success Inform ES target levels
10. Determine Contract and Payment Types
11. Monitoring and Evaluation Inform design of monitoring program
12. Adapt and Scale Up1. Assess potential ES returns of alternative
management plans2. Identify where to focus new PWS programs
Policy Step InVEST Contribution
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Framework for defining success
PRODUCE RESULTS
Published
Disseminated
PRODUCE TOOLS THAT
GENERATE ACTION
Alternatives based on
ES scientific framework
Plans & policies
consider ES impacts & dynamics
PRODUCE OUTCOMES
New policy & finance
mechanisms
Improved & balanced ES
provision
Increased biodiversity &
human wellbeing
PRODUCE TOOLS THAT
SHAPE MINDS
People understand and aware
of ES
Stakeholders focused on ES impacts
Stakeholder differences mediated