setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis

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Setting a Long-term Carbon Reduction Goal for Minneapolis Community Environmental Advisory Commission April 10, 2014

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Presentation for the Minneapolis Community Environmental Advisory Commission on creating a long-term greenhouse gas emissions reduction goal for the City of Minneapolis.

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Page 1: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis

Setting a Long-term Carbon Reduction Goal for Minneapolis

Community Environmental Advisory CommissionApril 10, 2014

Page 2: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis
Page 3: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis

0.0

1,000,000.0

2,000,000.0

3,000,000.0

4,000,000.0

5,000,000.0

6,000,000.0

7,000,000.0

4.889 mmtco2e

-14.88%

2012

5.7 mmtco2e

2006

4.882 mmtco2e

-15%

20154.0 mmtco2e

-30%

2025

Minneapolis Community GHG Reduction Targets

Page 4: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis

Staff direction: “To work with CEAC to develop a long term carbon emissions reduction goal, to supplement the City’s short- and mid-term goals and report back with a recommendation no later than April 14, 2014.”

Page 5: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis

Projected Change in Days >90o F from 1980 to 2055

Source: Center for Climatic Research, Nelson Institute, University of Wisconsin- Madison

• Global average temperature increases of more than 2 degrees Celsius pose a significant risk to global ecosystems, and are likely to cause destructive and extreme weather patterns

• Reductions in carbon dioxide emissions of approximately 80% from 2000 levels by 2050 will be necessary to limit temperature increases to below 2 degrees Celsius

• While incremental improvement of established technologies and practices can achieve some progress, 80% reductions in GHG emissions will likely require fundamental systems changes

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2007 Assessment Report has estimated that:

Page 6: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis

Kevin Anderson, Beyond ‘dangerous’ climate change: emissions scenarios for a new worldhttp://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/20.full.pdf+html

Page 7: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis

Source: 4° Turn Down the Heat, World Bank http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf

Page 8: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis
Page 9: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis
Page 10: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis

Helps to justify the City’s engagement and involvement on long-term planning & development issues

Gives staff latitude to engage on issues that go beyond the 10-year

planning horizon

Why set a long-term carbon reduction goal?

Xcel Energy 2020 Projected Energy Mix (Based on current resource plans and energy forecasts)

Page 11: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis
Page 12: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis

Next Generation Energy Act

Statewide GHG emissions reduction

• 15% by 2015 • 30% by 2025• 80% by 2050

*all below 2005 levels

Page 13: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis
Page 14: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis

Goal of developing a resilient region minimizes its

contributions to climate change and is prepared for the

challenges and opportunities of a changing climate.

Page 15: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis

Hennepin County is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent by the year 2050 as part of the Cool County Initiative.

Page 16: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis

37 US cities have articulated 80% plus goals or have demonstrated significant leadership in trying to achieve significant GHG reductions.

New York

Los Angeles

Chicago

Philadelphia

San Jose

San Francisco

Austin

Boston

Seattle

Nashville

Portland

AtlantaAlbuquerque

Sacramento

Miami

Minneapolis

New Orleans

Cincinnati

Chula Vista CA

Tacoma

Alexandria VA

Hayward CA

Charleston SC

Berkeley CA

Richmond CA

Boulder CO

North Little Rock AK

Santa Cruz CA

Kirkland WA

Olympia WA

Blacksburg VA

Annapolis MD

Falmouth ME

Burien WA

Galloway NJ

Alliance OH

Kansas City

Sources: O-H Community Partners, Innovation Network for Communities analysis

Page 17: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis

City Reduction Goal Notes

Seattle 100% by 2050The Seattle Climate Action Plan, adopted in June 2013, focuses on city actions that reduce greenhouse emissions and also support vibrant neighborhoods, economic prosperity, and social equity.

Portland 80% by 2050The City of Portland’s Climate Action Plan recommends actions to achieve a 40 percent reduction in carbon emissions by 2030 and an 80 percent reduction by 2050 (compared to 1990 levels).

San Francisco 80% by 2050San Francisco's Climate Action Strategy has identified 35 climate strategies to achieve the goals of zero waste, 50% trips without cars, and 100% renewable energy.

Vancouver 80% by 2050 Greenest City 2020 is a bold initiative that will address Vancouver's environmental challenges.

Fort Collins 80% by 2050 Rocky Mountain Institute study outlines what it would take to achieve an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030

Boston 80% by 2050Greenovate Boston is a community-driven movement to get all Bostonians involved in reducing the city’s greenhouse gas emissions 25% by 2020 and 80% by 2050, as outlined in the City’s Climate Action Plan.

Chicago 80% by 2050The Chicago CAP outlines 26 actions to reduce greenhouse gases and nine actions to prepare for climate change, helping the City, residents, and businesses reduce greenhouse gases by 25 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 and 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050.

Austin 40% by 2030As part of their 2013 Climate Action Plan update, Austin held a 2-day community climate workshop where they set a target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

Los Angeles 35% by 2030The City of Los Angeles released its climate action plan in May 2007, which set forth a goal of reducing the City’s greenhouse gas emissions to 35% below 1990 levels by the year 2030, one of the most aggressive goals of any big city in the U.S. at the time

New York City 30% by 2030 Report by the Urban Green Council looks at what it would take to achieve a 90% reduction by 2050

Page 18: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

Emissions from community-wide activities in Minneapolis

WastewaterSolid WasteAir Travel (MSP)On-Road TransportationNatural Gas ConsumptionElectricity Consumption

Page 19: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis
Page 20: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis

If we…Make our commercial buildings 75% more efficient (3.75 times CAP goal) and

We make our residential buildings 50% more efficient (3 times CAP goal) and

Industrial processes become 30% more efficient and

Electricity and natural gas usage stay flat and

Xcel achieves an ~80% carbon-free electricity mix and

We reduce VMT 10% and the on-road light-duty fleet averages 100 mpg and

Carbon-neutral airline fuels are fully deployed and

We process all our waste in a carbon-neutral fashion

We would reduce our GHGs by roughly 80%.

Page 21: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis

2006 - 2012 period av-erage

2015 - 2025 period 2025 - 2050 period0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

142,509

86,163

114,885

Annual reduction required to meet goals

Page 22: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis

0.0

1,000,000.0

2,000,000.0

3,000,000.0

4,000,000.0

5,000,000.0

6,000,000.0

7,000,000.0

2012

5.7 mmtco2e

2006

4.882 mmtco2e

-15%

2015

4.0 mmtco2e

-30%

2025

Minneapolis Community GHG Reduction Targets

Page 23: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis

0.0

1,000,000.0

2,000,000.0

3,000,000.0

4,000,000.0

5,000,000.0

6,000,000.0

7,000,000.0

2050

1.1 mmtco2e

-80%

4.889 mmtco2e

-14.88%

2012

Baseline: 5.7 mmtco2e

2006

4.882 mmtco2e

-15%

2015

4.0 mmtco2e

-30%

2025

Minneapolis Community GHG Reduction Targets

Page 24: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis

Sector/Issue Goals

Buildings and Energy

1. Achieve 15% energy efficiency in residential buildings from the growth baseline by 20252. Achieve 20% energy efficiency in commercial/industrial buildings from the baseline by 20253. Increase electricity from local and directly purchased renewables to 10% by 20254. Achieve a 1.5% annual reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from City facilities

Transportation and Land Use

1. Reduce automobile vehicle miles traveled (VMT) while improving accessibility, increasing transportation choices and accommodating equitable opportunity and growth

2. Support livable, walkable, bikeable, safe and growing neighborhoods that meet the needs of all residents, provide a range of housing types at all income levels, and protect against displacement of and provide opportunities to current residents, businesses and cultural communities

3. Support the Metropolitan Council's goal of doubling regional transit ridership by 2030, while improving access and livability for lower income households most reliant on public transit

4. Grow jobs and housing to support a growing economy and non-auto transportation modes5. Increase the share of Minneapolis residents and workers choosing non-auto modes for

commuting and other trips6. Through local action and federal and state legislation, support a transition to cleaner fuels

and more efficient vehicles7. Promote and strengthen green infrastructure and natural systems that can build resilience,

sequester or reduce emissions, and improve neighborhoods

Waste and Recycling

1. Achieve a zero percent growth rate in the total waste stream from 2010 levels, with a long-term goal of achieving zero waste

2. Recycle 50 percent of the waste stream (commercial and residential) in Minneapolis by 2025, with a long-term goal of achieving zero waste

3. Increase organics collection to 15 percent of the waste stream by 20254. Reduce the flow of wastewater from Minneapolis and support efforts to make wastewater

treatment more energy efficient5. Increase awareness of the lifecycle impacts of products to address GHGs occurring outside

the community

Page 25: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis

Emissions Source

Carbon Reduction Strategy Example Initiatives

Commercial & Residential Buildings

Achieve net zero emissions in 100% of new buildings by 2030

• Net Zero building codes• Mandatory building benchmarking• Mandatory building commissioning• Geothermal heat pumps

Achieve 30%-50% emissions reductions in 100% of existing buildings

• Mandatory building retro-commissioning• Required retrofitting upgrades at transaction• Reduce appliance/equipment energy demand by 30%

Industrial

Achieve 3%+ annual improvements in energy efficiency of industrial processes, and reduce building energy use by at least 15%

• Equipment upgrades• Process/product redesign• Mandatory retro-commissioning• Mandatory retrofitting

Transportation

Achieve annual net decreases in total Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)

• Bike and pedestrian friendly streets• Bike sharing and car sharing• Increased access to transit• Performance based tolling and parking fees• Parking restrictions in high density areas• Employer-based demand management• Transit-Oriented Development

Decrease emissions per VMT by 50%-75%

• Increased vehicle mileage standards• Alternative low-carbon fuels (electric vehicles; bio-fuels; hybrids; fuel cells)

Page 26: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis

Emissions Source

Carbon Reduction Strategy Example Initiatives

WasteEliminate 100% of solid waste disposed of via landfill or incinerator

• Mandatory consumer and commercial recycling• Single or no-stream recycling (100% sorting of all waste)• Construction/demolition recycling & reuse• Organics composting and waste to energy

Energy Generation

Achieve 80%-90% de-carbonization of the

electricity and heating supply

• Replace 100% of coal fired electricity generation with natural gas or renewables

• Implement on-site energy generation in 100% of eligible structures

• Develop district energy/heating/cooling in 100% eligible densely built areas• Implement 50%+ renewable portfolio standards• Implement shared renewable power purchasing programs• Implement carbon capture and sequestration

System-Wide

Implement efficient land use planning

• Increase residential density through urban growth boundaries and promotion of infill development

• Ensure that at least 6+ acres of green space are available per 1000 residents

Design municipal infrastructure for low carbon performance

• Deploy smart grids across 100% of the municipality• Deploy high efficiency transmission lines across 100% of the

municipality• Use smart infrastructure for 100% of city needs• Use green infrastructure to reduce the need for gray

infrastructure

Page 27: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis

The Emissions Reductions Formula

- -

Total EmissionsTotal Emissions

Volume of gases added to the atmosphere

Total SinksTotal Sinks

Volume of gases removed from the atmosphere

OffsetsOffsets

Volume equivalent of purchased credits

=GHGEmissions

Reduce absolute emissions quantity from a given base

year

Increase the quantity of GHG

absorbed by carbon sinks

Purchase carbon offsets to further

reduce GHG emissions

Total reductions targets may be 80% or more; if

reductions reach 100%, carbon neutrality is achieved

Page 28: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis

Household Consumption Inventory, 2010

Electricity11%

Nat. Gas9%

Furniture5%

Construction4%

Water3%

Car Fuel22%Air Travel

4%

Services14%

Other7%

Clothing4%

Meat6%

Other3%

Page 29: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis

Recommendations:

Carbon Reduction Goal: 80% by 2050

As part of our goal, continue to refine methods and

research best practices for measuring consumption-

based emissions

Page 30: Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis

Timeline and Next Steps

February 24: HECE Committee

direction to develop a

recommendation

March 13: CEAC Climate

Subcommittee Meeting

April 10: Presentation to full CEAC with subcommittee

recommendation

April 11: Have a letter to present to the

HECE Committee

April 14: Presentation of

CEAC recommendation to HECE Meeting