sesti workshop-cognitive enhancement futures

Scanning for emerging science and technology issues Project funded under the Socio‐

economic Sciences and Humanities

The SESTI project is funded under the European FP7 and researches the application of weak signals and emerging issues for improving the anticipatory intelligence of the European

Commission and the EU Member States on future developments and issues

SESTI Workshop on Cognitive Enhancement[Weak signals in Cognitive

Enhancement]

SESTI Workshop on Cognitive Enhancement[Weak signals in Cognitive

Enhancement]

Victor van RijMinistry of Education, Culture and Science

Netherlands07‐06‐2010



7/6/2010Weak signals in cognitive enhancement :

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OutlineOutline

• Cognitive Enhancement & Human evolution • Future evolution (desire, hope and fear)• Levels of enhancement (temporarily aid and enhancing the basics)

• Motives for CE• Pathways for CE• Weak signals monitoring the progress towards the fears and hopes

• Some analysis of results




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Cognitive enhancement & human evolution – past and present

Cognitive enhancement & human evolution – past and present

• Cognitive Genes (nature) , Richardson and Boyd• Social learning (culture) , Corbelis• The use of language and tools (education) , Gibson and Ingold)

• Communicating knowledge and ways of thinking over generations by drawing, writing, printing, video etc)

• Computers , internet (language, visuals , oral presentation, computing , translating)




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Cognitive enhancement‐ future evolution

Cognitive enhancement‐ future evolution

• Hopes and desires ; threats and fears • Hopes : 1. Heal or prevent cognitive impairment 2. Make

perfect humans : Trans – humanism (Kurzweil, Warwick, Bostrom, Pearson) humans direct connected with computers, machines and extra sensory systems etc –genetic modification of human – border between humans and machines will disappear

• Fears: 1. Brave new world see : Brave new Worlds –Appleyard – 2. Eugenetics, risks of self selection –imperfect choices etc Human Genetics Alert, David King –, 3. Loosing human feelings: What computers can’t do, Dreyfuss




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Cognitive enhancement‐ future evolution (1)


Seeing by sound or Artificial retina

Mind controlled humans

Superintelligent cyborg

superconnected

with infrared vision

Healing Parkinson

& Alzheimer???

by deep brain stimulation

Additional memory

Reading minds to control machines




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Cognitive enhancement‐ future evolution (2)By the use of retinal stemcells

In Vitro Fertilisation

Genetic Screening

Commercial use

Imperfect

knowledge

Eugenics

Super Humans

Medicines for restoration of

Developmental shortcomings

Gene therapy

Functional analysis of cognitive genes




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Smart drugs?

Educational , social, psychological , chemical, physical and nutrional optimalisation




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Levels of enhancementLevels of enhancement

• Improve performance of Cognitive ‐ task performance (using tools as books, pc, internet etc , drugs , tea ??)

• Improve Cognitive development of an individual (right nutrients, proper education, culture)

• Improve Cognitive development of population (educational system, supply of infrastructure ‐internet)



7/6/2010Weak signals in cognitive enhancement : Backgro nd Paper for SESTI Workshop on Cogniti e Enhancement

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Main motives for enhancementMain motives for enhancement

• Individual level, being smart pays better , being smart helps you to find solutions in complex problems , increases your chance on survival and success

• Parents usually would like to have smart children for that reason

• Population level , CE of population stands for economic growth , capacity to resolve challenges of country and of individuals (staying longer healthy) etc

• Fighting cognitive impairment and deterioration of cognitive capacities

• Commercial market for CE




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Main pathways for enhancementMain pathways for enhancement

• Social, psychological : socio economic environment , attention, education, peer influence NLP etc

• Biological : physical environment (light, sound ) , chemical environment (food, pollution, developmental drugs etc), genetics

• Tools : learning material, PC, internet, smart interfaces , smart drugs, implants etc




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Search for weak signals (ratio)Search for weak signals (ratio)

Are there signals that give information on:

• The direction of developments in the different pathways (towards fears or hopes)

• The speed of these developments• Possible responses in society and politics• Emerging policy issues that need to be addressed




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Search for weak signals (results 1)Search for weak signals (results 1)

40 exemplary signals gathered:

• Mainly on S&T developments (90 %)• Majority on biological pathways (16) and tools (15)

• Minority on social and psychological (6) and on responses in society (4)




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Analysis (1)Analysis (1)Most eminent (close by) ethical and legal issues:

• Neuro‐ reading (legal issues)• The use of neural implants (reading and unconscious influencing)• Cognitive performance enhancing with drugs (inequality, health risks etc)• Genetic screening of Cognitive genes and In Vitro Fertilization (Eugenics, new

problem in use of animals , the human‐ zoo hybrid)• Drugs influencing the neuro‐ cognitive development • Commercial interest • Knowledge from healing and preventing cognitive impairment may also be

used for (costly) developmental and performance Cognitive Enhancement of individuals (with problems on the insurance border and further widening of social, economic divide)




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Analysis (2)Analysis (2)Public priorities in Cognitive Enhancement• No studies available on expected cost benefits of different pathways

for general CE , despite proven success of social/psychological pathway and bio‐environmental pathway – both contain still unknowns (example: smart food and embryonal development)

• Most attention (signals) seem to be related to Enhancing Cognitive Performance of tasks in stead of development of Cognitive Enhanced Development

• Choice in research on healing, preventing cognitive impairment (following nature or use of artificial devices)

• `Promising tools for education (augmented reality, virtual reality and gaming)




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Conclusions on the use of weak signals for an established issue/topic as CE

Conclusions on the use of weak signals for an established issue/topic as CE

• Cognitive enhancement is a topic that already had some attention in the Technology Assessment arena therefore motives , objectives and objections as well as pathways of CE are more or less clear

• + Our brief weak signals search has focused on the achievement of success in the direction of the motives and objections in the different pathways and points to developments that need more urgent policyattention

• + Due to the TA attention more soft scientific ways (psycho, sociological, environmental) for CE may slip out of our attention, and our prioritisation without proper analysis of their comparative value to more hard pathways. Through weak signal search we may explicit this kind of gaps.

• ‐ the focus of our search was scientific development, although anattempt has been made to look to economical and societal signals we need to improve our search for these kind of signals

• For more unkown topics it is clear that a pre‐study is needed to explicit the motives, objectives and objections before these kind of weak signals can be identified