session 6: design and evaluation of targeted biosecurity surveillance systems
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
PBCRC 2110 Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems
Michael Renton and Maggie Triska
![Page 2: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
Problem being addressed
Optimal surveillance design (what’s the best way to look for something you don’t want to find)
![Page 3: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
Problem being addressed
Better surveillance- Early detection for rapid and effective response
- Delineating the extent of an incursion- Proving area freedom to protect trade
- Inform management of established pests
![Page 4: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
Problem being addressed
What is the best design for a surveillance system?- Number of samples (traps etc)- Location of sampling- Frequency of sampling
![Page 5: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
General methods specific applications
Three case studies- Grape phylloxera
- PCN
- Fruit fly
![Page 6: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
Phylloxera
![Page 7: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
Grape phylloxera spread model
Natural spread Natural + human + wind spread
![Page 8: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
Grape phylloxera
High virulenceLow virulence
High suitability Medium suitability
Low suitability
![Page 9: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
Grape phylloxera
Standard ↑↓ Density Target high suitability soil
![Page 10: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
Phylloxera
Surveillance design based on soil types - More efficient
Sampling density- Relatively minor effect
Low virulence in low suitability conditions- Many, many years before detection
![Page 11: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
Victoria statistical areasProperties
Movement
Market Seed
Network spread model
![Page 12: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
Surveillance strategies
- Number of properties?- Fixed or vary with time?- Random across space?- Focus on areas with
detections? - Plus neighbouring areas?- More connected nodes?- Weighted strategies?
![Page 13: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
Infested Detected
- Predict spread under different surveillance strategies
Spread simulations
![Page 14: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
Likely paths of spread under different strategiesLikely paths of spread under different strategies
![Page 15: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
Risk of Infestation
![Page 16: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
Next Steps
• Detailed local spread• Individual farm locations; roads; waterways; linked
properties
![Page 17: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
Fruit fly
![Page 18: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
Individual trees
Orchards
High risk introduction sites
Initial incursion
![Page 19: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
Surveillance (trapping) designs
grid random
![Page 20: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
adhockmeans
firstfirst … and I also got the computer to try to optimise…
![Page 21: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
Results!
0 100 200 300 400
days to detection
prob
abili
ty
0.00
010.
001
0.01
0.1
1
gridadhocopt_timeopt_ninfsfirstfirstkmeansrandom
1 5 10 50 500 5000
N trees
prob
abili
ty
0.00
010.
001
0.01
0.1
1
gridadhocopt_timeopt_ninfsfirstfirstkmeansrandom Better!
N trees Days to detection
Prob
abili
ty
Prob
abili
ty
![Page 22: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
Summary
Packages for evaluating surveillance designs - Account for biology, spread dynamics,
heterogeneous landscape- Scales: field, farm, town, region, state- Dispersal: active, passive, human
![Page 23: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
Delivery
What? (recommendations or tools?) Who? (us, end-users, others??) How?
- Training module for fruit fly Generalising to new
- locations, species, organisms, scales, situations
![Page 24: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
Open questions and next steps
Practicality, adoption, approval of designs? Sensitivity to
- biological assumptions?- detection assumptions?
Mobile traps and dynamic landscapes Economics
![Page 25: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
End User’s Perspective
“Project outcomes are expected to assist in the development of surveillance systems which achieve the required outcomes at the least cost. ” Bonny Vogelzang (PIRSA)
![Page 26: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
Thanks!
![Page 27: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
![Page 28: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
Grape phylloxera
![Page 29: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
![Page 30: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
Output
• Detection vs infestation
![Page 31: Session 6: Design and Evaluation of Targeted Biosecurity Surveillance Systems](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062820/589eb93c1a28ab4a5c8b56af/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
biosecurity built on science
Probability of detection from active and passive surveillance increasing as a function of time since first infestation of a field.
0 5 10 15
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
t
p
activepassive
Detection and diagnostics?
1 5 10 50 500 5000
N trees
prob
abili
ty
0.00
010.
001
0.01
0.1
1
gridadhocopt_timeopt_ninfsfirstfirstkmeansrandom