session 5: case studies part c - united nations · 2017-07-11 · session 5: case studies part c...
TRANSCRIPT
CDP Secretariat/UN-DESA
Session 5:
Case studies part C
Matthias BrucknerCommittee for Development Policy Secretariat
New York, 30 November 2016
Expert group meeting
Lessons learned in building productive capacity in graduated and
graduating countries
Geneva, 30 November and 1 December 2016
CDP Secretariat/UN-DESA
Countries with ‘standard’ development patterns
� LDC: Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Rwanda� Non-LDCs: Viet Nam, Ghana
� Initial structural transformation successful� Agriculture is key (land rights, inputs)� Viet Nam and Bangladesh some manufacturing,
Ethiopia emerging (?)� All five countries more diversified than others
� Continuing transformation and moving-up the value chain very difficult
� Both for LDCs and non-LDCs
Rwanda
-60
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-10
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GD
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ISIC A+B ISIC C ISIC D
ISIC E ISIC F ISIC G+H
ISIC I ISIC J+K ISIC L
ISIC M+N+O ISIC P GDP growth rate
LDC GDP growth target
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Per capita GNI (in US$)HAI/EVI
EVI below current threshold EVI above current threshold HAI below current threshold
HAI above current threshold GNI below threshold GNI above threshold
GNI above income only threshold EVI treshold HAI treshold
GNI treshold
Rwanda� Agriculture as priority� Increase productivity of smallholders
• Public investments in better inputs and practices• Priority crops selected by government• Land use consolidation: Joint farming by independent, who get
public support
� Land tenure regularization� Secure land rights critical not only for agriculture, also social
issue� Complete land registry� State owned, but very long term leases� No further subdivisions of land
• Flexibility? � Success: Improved investment� Rural infrastructure remains constraint� Parallel market outside regulations
Ethiopia
Ethiopia� State-led development model
• Multitude of specific agencies • Public consultations; continuous learning
� 1990s: Agriculture-led industrialization� 2000s: Growth and Transformation Plans
� Extension services main factor for agricultural productivity growth • Development agents trained in special centers• Various support institutions
� Massive infrastructure investments and public housing • Still bottlenecks
� Almost complete coverage of public health services • Health extension workers
� Several industrial policies • State controlled markets• Standard policies (investment incentives, tax holidays, duty
free imports, public investment in target sectors) • Public private mechanisms for consultation and tech transfer• Success still to be seen
Bangladesh
Bangladesh� Extreme development constraints upon independence
• Significant progress • Close to meeting graduation criteria in 2018
� Significant manufacturing (17 % share in GDP)• Second largest exporter of garments
� International support (duty-free quota-free) key factor• Plus: other market characteristics (buyers market)• Existing basic capabilities and low wages• Industrial policies (bonded warehouse, subsidies,… )• Success not (yet?) replicated in other sectors
� Building human assets jointly by State and NGOs• Combine low cost solutions with public awareness campaigns• Female agency • Community approach; experimentation; rapid adoption of
technologies• Population density and social homogeneity
Viet Nam
Viet Nam� Rapid growth due to economic reforms after 1986
• Market economy with social orientation • Reform price system • Political and institutional reform lagging
� Low transparency and accountability; lack of coordination; only limited civil society
• Difficulty in continuing reforms
� Market reform in agriculture successful • Establishing land using rights; Market prices; Subsidizing inputs • Environmental challenges • State land ownership causes social problems
� Farmers don’t benefit from land use changes
� Active integration into global market anchored economic reform• Attracting FDI • Actively negotiating trade agreements• Established manufacturing (but share in GDP peaked <22 %)• Difficulty in moving up the value chain
� Lack of R&D and innovation
Ghana
Ghana� Strong economic growth in the 2000s
• Agriculture still dominant • Inequality increasing
� Modern services grew after ‘orthodox’ market reforms and modern regulatory regimes• But sector creates only limited number of decent jobs
� Mining and (unsustainable) forestry main driver of GDP growth• Mining proceeds are not enough used to invest in other forms
of capital ⇾ unsustainable (even weakly)• Timber extraction also unsustainable
� Infrastructure remains major bottleneck• Progress in roads, regress in rail• Electricity major constraints
� Low water level reduce hydropower� Natural gas supply erratic
• Sustainability and availability major concerns
CDP Secretariat/UN-DESA
Thank You
Contact: Matthias BrucknerCommittee for Development Policy SecretariatDepartment of Economic and Social AffairsUnited Nations
email: [email protected]:// www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/cdp