Yemen National Food Security Strategy and Directions for Future Research and Policy Support

Merna Hassan & Olivier Ecker

Yemen Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation International Food Policy Research Institute

IFPRI-UNESCWA Conference: Food Secure Arab World—A Roadmap for Policy & Research

United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia; Beirut, 6-7 February 2012

Merna Hassan

National Food Security Committee Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation

Yemen National Food Security Strategy: A Encouraging Collaboration between Policy and Research

General Overview

The National Food Security Strategy (NFSS) was developed by the Government of Yemen in collaboration with IFPRI.

Motivation to commission the NFSS study:

a) The impacts of the 2008 food price crisis and the following global economic recession appeared to be particularly severe in Yemen.

b) Yemen has been facing major domestic challenges for food security (incl. lack of job-creating growth, high oil dependence, costly fuel subsidies, high budget deficit, inefficient social transfer system, rapidly depleting oil and water resources, growing qat consumption, widespread malnutrition).

Principal: MOPIC, with financial support of the EC

Coordination by the inter-ministerial Food Security Committee (FSC), in consultation with international development partners

Project period: Mar 2009 – Dec 2010

The NFSS was endorsed by the Ministerial Committee in Dec 2010 and adopted by the Parliament in Jan 2011.

Consultative Process and Rigorous Analysis: From Priority Areas to a 7-Point Action Plan

Intensive dialogue between food security-related ministries (MOPIC, MOF, MOIT, MOPHP, MOAI, MOWE, MOFW), governmental agencies (SWF, SFD, CSO) and international development organizations (EC, GTZ, World Bank, WFP, UNICEF, FAO, IFAD, JICA) during regular FSC meetings

Four MOPIC-IFPRI workshops (plus several technical meetings) in Sanaa to present and discuss research questions, findings, and policy implications; all attended by several national ministers

Two IFPRI field trips with expert and target group interviews

These consultations combined with rigorous analysis of Yemen’s food security challenges and review of existing sector strategies revealed 18 priority areas for policy action.

A comprehensive and innovative model and complementary analysis helped to identify and rank seven concrete policy actions of highest priority and assess their food security impacts.

THE VISION: All Yemeni people have access to sufficient and nutritious food at all times to live an active and healthy life—i.e. all people are food secure.

THE OBJECTIVES against which success will be judged and progress will be monitored are:

1. To cut food insecurity by one-third by 2015

2. To reach “moderate” food security levels by 2020—to make 90 percent of the population food secure

3. To sharply reduce child malnutrition—by at least one percentage point per annum

THE INSTRUMENTS to reach these goals are:

Decisive policies

Targeted investments

Smart programs

NFSS: Vision, Objectives, Instruments

NFSS: 7-Point Action Plan To reach Yemen’s food security objectives a combination of individual

policy reforms, investments, and programs is essential.

The required actions are:

1. Leverage the fuel subsidy reform to promote food security

2. Improve the business climate to foster pro-food secure private investments in promising sectors

3. Combine qat reduction policies with support for non-qat agricultural development

4. Enforce competition among cereal importers and consider physical grain storage for emergencies

5. Implement the water sector strategy decisively

6. Better target public investment to the food insecure and improve service provision, especially in rural areas

7. Launch high-level awareness campaigns for family planning, healthy nutrition, and women’s empowerment

Selected Findings of the Yemen National Food Security Strategy and Future Research

Olivier Ecker

Development Strategy and Governance Division International Food Policy Research Institute

The State of Food Security in Yemen

Growing food import dependence (food imports: >15% of total exports)

Widespread undernourishment (32% = 7.5m), especially in rural areas (37%)

Extremely high levels of child malnutrition (stunting: 59%)

How can economic growth improve food security, at which level, and by how much?

Which policy reforms are suited to generate such growth?

Which investments and programs are needed in addition?

Prevalence of undernourishment (% of total pop.)

Number of undernourished people (1 dot = 500 people)

Source: Ecker et al. 2010. “Assessing Food Security in Yemen.” IFPRI DP 982.

An Integrative Approach for Food Security Analysis

Source: Ecker & Breisinger. “The Food Security System.” Forthcoming 2012.

Macro-Micro Modeling Framework

Factor markets

Commodity markets

Foreign markets/ countries

Public sector/ government

Human/physical capital

Productivity/technology

Urban/ Rural

Farm/ Nonfarm

Agriculture

Industry

Services

Economic production HH incomes

Production Consumption

Wages, rents, profits

Foreign trade

Foreign aid

Taxes Spending

and market policies

Foreign investment

Taxes and social policies

Public investment and macro policies

Private investment

IFPRI Dynamic CGE Model Nutrition Models

Parametric regressions: N = f(Y, P, D)

Estimated coefficients

Prediction

Expenditure change (‘shock’)

Nutrition outcomes

Industry and Service Sector-Led Growth Scenario:

Promotion of growth in ‘promising sectors’ (food processing, non-hydrocarbon mining, tourism, transportation, communication) through improved business climate

Results:

High GDP growth

Substantial reduction in undernourishment, especially in rural areas

Minor improvement in child nutrition

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

National GDP Hydrocarbon

Agriculture Industry

Services

Growth – change from baseline (% points)

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

National

Rural farm

Rural nonfarm

Urban

Prevalence of undernourishment – change from baseline (% points)

Source: Breisinger et al. 2011. “Food as the Basis for Development and Security.” IFPRI DP 1036.

Agricultural Policy Reform

-1

0

1

2

3

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

National GDP Hydrocarbon Agriculture

Industry Services

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

National

Rural farm

Rural nonfarm

Urban

Growth – change from baseline (% points)

Prevalence of undernourishment – change from baseline (% points)

Scenario:

Promotion of non-qat agricultural productivity growth through investments (especially in coffee and wheat value chains) financed by qat taxation

Results:

Modest GDP growth

Significant reduction in undernourishment, especially among farmers

Minor improvement in child nutrition

Source: Breisinger et al. 2011. “Food as the Basis for Development and Security.” IFPRI DP 1036.

Ways Forward: ‘Costs’ of Yemen’s Conflicts

In Yemen, the Arab Awakening and other conflicts created major opportunities but have been also associated with substantial losses in economic growth and household income earnings.

While ongoing studies focus only on the immediate loss in GDP and disruption of investments, we plan to analyze the impacts on development, poverty, and food security in the medium and long term.

The analysis will build on the NFSS study and provide detailed data of the conflict impacts differentiated by the type of conflict and the population affected.

IFPRI-MOPIC Products from NFSS Research NFSS documents (Part I & II)

NFSS briefs: Action Plan & Overview of Elements

IFPRI Discussion Papers (982, 1036)

Digital Food Security Atlas for Yemen

Available online: http://www.ifpri.org/publications