Session 2: Workshop: Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead

Moderator: Dr. Paul Try, Senior VP, STC

Rapporteurs: Ms. Mary Cairns (OFCM) Mr. Floyd Hauth (OFCM/STC)

Panelists: Mr. Mark Welshinger, OFCMDr. Frank Marks, HRDDr. Ramesh Kakar, NASADr. Naomi Surgi, NCEPDr. Richard Hodur, NRL-MontereyDr. Isaac Ginis, University of

Rhode Island

Strategic Research Plan Overview• Interagency tropical cyclone plan that encompasses all

applicable Federal agencies

• Grass-roots-up approach to meet the needs of the three operational tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers– TPC/NHC, CPHC, and JTWC

• Needs characterized by seven tropical cyclone-related, day-to-day operational forecast and warning categories– Intensity

– Structure

– Track

– Sea state

• Strategy / recommendations focus on R&D, enhanced coordination / collaboration, transition of research to operations, and increased funding

– Storm surge

– Precipitation

– Observations

Panel: Related Comments-- R2O Needs Greater Emphasis (Sensor/DA/Modeling/Outreach)

Sensors: -- New Satellite and Aircraft capabilities Improving the System -- Continuing support for outyear new technologies (e.g., GEO MW array tech.)

Modeling: Good Systematic/Well Planned Model Upgrades

-- Moving to ESMF -- Need for Community standards (grids, etc.,) for > interoperability -- Ocean/Wave coupling coming soon

-- Research Results Not Fully Realized/Optimized

-- Major Improvements in Capability on Horizon!!! BUT ”IFF” (if and only if)

Effective Research (incl:data analysis) and Planned R2O Must have greater Human and Computer Capacity Resources

(i.e., Supplements in both research (B/A) and R2O required)

Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones The Way Ahead

1st Step: Necessary comprehensive basis to build focused implementation on!

Summary: Plan’s Primary Features:

-- Strategic

-- Comprehensive

-- Collaborative (Multi-agency

Consensus)

-- Identifies Resources Required

-- Identifies Gaps

Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones The Way Ahead

Next Step (Actions):

-- OFCM Multiagency Coordinated Effort (Leverage agency expertise, funding, mission needs, etc.,)

-- 10 year TC Research Implementation Plan (Brief: Focused, Annual Review/Update, Timelines, Milestones, etc.,)

-- NWP Development Improvement Plan

(w/>R2O; > Academia; >resources)

-- Strategic TC Recon Improvement Plan (incl: Manned, unmanned, satellite + Observing Strategies)

-- OFCM Continue Review Hurricane Warning System

-- Increase Focus on Deficiency in NWP Professionals