session 1 - uk photo voltaic supply chain presented by alastair wilson

8/7/2019 Session 1 - UK Photo Voltaic Supply Chain Presented by Alastair Wilson

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Knowledge Transfer Networks

Accelerating business innovation;

A Technology Strategy Board programme

Global PV market and the UKPV Supply Chain

Alastair Wilson

Director Photonics and PlasticElectronics KTN


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Global PV Market & revenue forecast

Source: Displaybank Solar & Energy Dec 2008

PV Market Revised Outlook (2007-2013)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

(Source : Solar Energy, Displybank Dec 2008)

PVMarketGW

Old Forecast New Forecast

4.6 78.9

18.1

31

47.9

68.1

92.7

118.1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2005 2006 2007 2008F 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F

Revenue[Bil.

$]

Solar Revenue

CAGR of 40% until 2013


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BCG Matrix of top 11country markets

Germany

USA

Japan

Japan

Japan

US

Question Mark

Poor Dog Cash Cows

Stars

Spain

Spain

India

China

Portugal

Portugal

India

Greece

France

FranceChinaGreece

300%

250%

200%

150%

100%

50%

0%

-50%

-100%

Italy

Germany

2007 2010E

0.1 1.0 10.0

Diameter : Market volume (newly installed MW)

X-axis : Relative market share (log)

Y-axis : CAGR 2004-2007, 2007-2010 Estimated

Italy

South Korea

South Korea

Germany

Germany

Germany

USA

USA

Japan

Japan

Japan

Japan

Japan

US

US

Question Mark

Poor Dog Cash Cows

Stars

Spain

Spain

Spain

Spain

India

India

China

Portugal

Portugal

India

Greece

France

FranceChinaGreece

300%

250%

200%

150%

100%

50%

0%

-50%

-100%

Italy

Italy

Germany

Germany

2007

2007 2010E

2010E

0.1 1.0 10.0

Diameter : Market volume (newly installed MW)

X-axis : Relative market share (log)

Y-axis : CAGR 2004-2007, 2007-2010 Estimated

Italy

South Korea

South Korea

Germany


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UK Installed PV power


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UK Renewables Generation

UK Renewables generation -2007

7

6

7

ind

Solar

Hydro

Biomass

Total renew ables - 9.7T h Source BERR


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PV Market OverviewDemand & Production

Regional & national shares of global PV cell production(Source : Photon I nternational 2007)

Rest of Europe

8.2%

USA 6.8%

China 15.1%

India 1.4%

Japan 36.4%

Taiwan 6.7%

Rest of Asia 3.7%

Germany 20.0%

Middle East 0.3% Australia 1.3%

PVMarket Demand2008

Total 5.95 GW[source: Solarbuzz LLC]

Germany, 1.86

Rest of theWorl

(ROW), 0.21

Rest of Europe(ROE),0.31

UnitedStates, 0.36

Spain, 2.46

SouthKorea, 0.28

Italy, 0.24

Japan, 0.23


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Top 10 PV cell producers


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9 9




T al i v s m i s la -


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9




UK P alu hainP a rial s s

urr n a us

ll

hn

log

ar

har

in

7(Source oton Internat onal March 2007)

mono c-Si 43.4%multi c-Si 46.5%

CdTe 2.7%

a-Si 4.7% CIS 0.2%

ribbon sheet c-Si 2.6%

Photovolt!

i"

#

!

t$

% i!

l&

'ffi

"

i$

(

" )

%0

$

ll1

)

2

$

0

$ ll# odul

$

3

t!

t$

of4

$

velopment

Monocrystalline silicon m-Si 24% 13-17% Industrial scale production

Polycrystalline silicon p-Si 18% 11-15% Industrial scale production

Amorphous silicon a-Si 11-12% 5-8% Industrial scale production

Copper Indium GalliumDiselenide

CIGS 18% 10-12% Industrial scale production

Cadmium Telluride CdTe 17% 10-12% Significant and growing share ofthe TF

market (mostly one company First Solar)

Organic - 5-8% ** Research Stage

Dye Sensitised DSSC 5-8% ** Pilot Production underway

Gallium Arsenide GaAs 25% ** Mostly aerospace applications

Gallium Arsenide

/Indium Phosphideetc

GaAs/InP 25-31% ** Research stage

EPIA

expects Th n F lm (CdTe, a S , CIG

S) share of market to grow to % y 1

m8


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Slide 10

m8 The thin filmmarket is expected to take amuch larger share of the market. the efficiency numbers for CdTe & CIGS need to updated -

the reduction in costand equivalent orbetter effiiencies to C-Si are provign very attractive to buyers. Can only improve as yield goes

up and costs go down.

Soem question about the reliability of Organic and DSSC. Their low efficiencies mean that their targetmarket is larg scakle deploymenton materials that wouyld be used orinarllyin construction such as sheetmetal or tiles. Nevertheless C-Si is still a very large chunk of

the market.michael.cowin, 6/18/2009


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Organic Solar cells

Efficiencies typically5 8%

Market estimated to

be $1billion by 2015(Nanomarkets)

Application portableconsumer products

e g backpacks,umbrellas and tentsinto mobile powergenerators


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Characteristics of the PV Value chain


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PV value added chain for Crystallinesilicon solar cells

Silic5 6

Waf7 8

C7

ll M5 9 @

l7

P8 5 9 @

cA

& sB

sA

7ms I 6 s

A

allaA

i5 6

& s7 8

vic7

Si basic

Material

Waferproduction

Solar cellproduction

Moduleproduction

Other PVsystem cpts

Sales &Installation

Maintenance

ighlypurified Si

Crystaldrawing

Cleaning Cellconnection

Inverters Transport Cleaning

Cleaning &separatingprocesses

Sawing Layer separation

Lamination Batteriesmaterial

Elevation Repair

Chemicals Etching Diffusion Glass,,EVA,

Tedlar

Mounting

material

Wiring

Etching Frame Cables Sales

Metalcoating

Connectionbox

Planning

Measuring Testing Mounting Demount

Packaging Recycling


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K PVValue Cha nMarg ns n the C S PVValue Cha n

A photovoltaic system is sold for approximately 8$/Watt peak which corresponds to:

Of the installation price, half

is the module & other half includes:

Inverter

Electrical wiring

Installation Today a module is sold for between around

5$/Wp with the following breakdown:

1$/Wp for the module

1 5$/Wp for the cell

2$/Wp for the wafer

It may be concluded here that, based on the

shortage of Silicon at the time, the margin of PV

manufacturers is very high

Margins are expected to be translated to the module and system supplier with the increase in siliconproduction capacity Some strategic alliances and purchases are occurring across the value chain to position companiesto capture future value

S C D E c F : Y C l F D F v F l C G G m F HI

P Q Q R

m11


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Slide 14

m11 As may be seen there are quite a few steps in the production cycle which is similar to the semiconductor industry.

An large proportion of the cost ofa PV system is the BOS and installation but it is unclearas to what the margin is on this.michael.cowin, 6/18/2009


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Value chain for thin film solar cells

Rae Ma

f

g hial

Mi p q

lg

Ph i p q

cf

& sr sf

g

ms I s sf

allaf

ii s

& sg h

vicg

Processing of

s/c materials

Thin film cell

production

Other PV

components

Sales and

Installation

Maintenance

Chemicalprocesses

Sputtering Inverters Transport Cleaning

PECVDprocess

Batteries,material

Elevation Repair

Etching Mounting

material

Wiring Demount

Laser Cables Sales Recycling

Variousenrichments

Planning

Vacuum Mounting


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Slide 17

m10 far less players in the production value chain means lower production costs - hence the obvious attraction of Thin film technology. The

high margins mightbe over inflated at present due to the previous shortage of silicon - now alleviated by new Si production facilities

coming on line - however the economies of scale will likely push TF process costs down - demand will then determine margin.michael.cowin, 6/18/2009


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Curr n

d

v

lop

n

s

a

usR&DPla

c s

c

i

Ram

Pil

P c

i

P c

i

> MW

P c

i

>

MW

( a li )

9

Produc

rs

a-Si/j

ak l m

m

C l T m

CIS/CI n S

Eno

rano

s

a-Si/

a

m

C

T

CIS/CI S

Mi

s

bis

i

H

av

F

g

Cal x

Sz

NYO Fi

s

S

la

U

i-S

la

Ka {

a

SHz

RP

SCHOTT

s l

CS

S

N

x|

}

K m s

Sig

Malib

Lamb a

S

la

Pl

s

sis

z

va

cis

Sc

CIS S la

c

i

{

PV Fl x

W

J a a

~

va cis ( R)

Cal

x ( R) CIS S la ( R)

CS S la ( R)

s l ( R)

Fis

S

la

(US)

F g

(FR)

sis (HU/

SP)

H a (JP)

J a a ( R)

Ka

a (JP)

K m s (TW)

Lamb a (M X)

Malib

(

R)Mi

s bis i HI (JP)

N x

(TW)

PV Fl

x (

R)

S~

NYO (JP)

Sc

(NL)

SCHOTT (

R)

SH~

RP(JP)

Sig

S la (US)

S la Pl s (PT)

S

(

R)

U i-S la (US)

W

( R)

H

a

Year o

MaretEntr


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Slide 19

m12 There are a number of new entrants into the a-Si market (quite a few in Germany) . CdTe - there are only two companies ion the

world producingat the moment - other entrants in the pipe line - First Solar (US) has cleaned up with combination of low costand

increased solar efficiency 1 billion dollars worth of orders. Where the ramp up in CIS/CIGS is going to come from is unclear - not too

many companies in the pipeline to enter the market.michael.cowin, 6/17/2009


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UK PV Solar cell / modulecompanies

1 UK companies involved in solar cell/modulemanufacture and R & D

Total production capacity in 200 is 2 3MW (4%of world production)

Two companies Sharp Electronics UK and

Romag account for % of this capacity Majority of UK companies are currently in the

development stage


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K PVValue Cha nK Solar cell & module manufacturers

Commercial position of UK based solar cell and modulemanufacturers

Current

developent

status

S

a

[m]

R&DPla

c s

c

i

Ram

Pil

P c

i

P c

i

> MW

P c

i

> MW

D

s l UK [c,m]

2008 or earlier

2009

2010

2011

2012

G24i [c,m]

Producersm-Si/ -Si

a-Si/

a

m

C

T

CIS/CIGS

III-V

DSSC/O ga ic

QD Rela

ed

Entrants

m-Si/ -Si

a-Si/

a demCdTe

CIS/CIGS

DSSC/O ga ic

III-V

QD Rela

ed

EPOD [c,m]

W

i

field S

la[m]

Romag[m]

Sola em ower[m] Helio D

amics [m]

NaREC [c]

SolarS

ruc

ure[c,m]

Trac

dale[c,m]Qua

asol [c]

dva

cesis [c]

Pol

solar [c,m]

Ionotec [c]

Year o

Mar etEntry[m] module manufacture, [c] cell manufacture

CST [c]

m14


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Slide 21

m14 As can be seen from this graph the number of UKbased companies is few and farbetween. There are some interesting startups such

as Trackdale (Quantum Dots). Whitfiled and Solarempowerare both due to start prioduction - and are hoping to use the NaREC as

their Si solar cell supplier - pendinga spin outat NaREC.

G24 as faras I can tell are not producing product. Neither is Dyesol - they are still in the development stage. Polysolarare in stealthmode (transparentglass solar cell) Advandcesis. NOTE : The real stars are EPOD - A FULL a-Si production facility in Bridgend (just laid

20 people off - think it is due to the business model of their parent company) and CST - potentially big impact on growing III-V CPV

market.michael.cowin, 6/18/2009


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2009 22




UK P alueChainUK P alueChain ata

UKSolar cell and odule anu acturers

UK presencein anu acture o cells and odules is inor

UKSolar cell anu acture

m-Si, p-Si Na EC Pilot Plant only)

GaAs IQE,CST,Quantasol, Advancesis prototype only)

UKSolar modulemanu acture

m-Si, p-Si - Sharp, omag

a-Si EP [ Full production acility !

SSC - yesol,G24

Opportunityin GaAs,CdTe, SSCcell and module

manu acture

World Solar cell

manu

acture

m-Si

p-SiGaAs

UK 1 4

Germany 10 1

Italy 5 1

S

ain 5 -

OtherEU 16 -

China

-

Ja

an 4 -

India 13 -

Other

P

C 25 2

US

14 6

Canada 2 -

MiddleEast 2 -

Solarmodule

manu

acture

m-Si

p-SiCdTe a-Si

CIS

CIGS

CP

GaAs

SSC

OP

TotalWorld 671 5 100 25 45 6

UK 2 - 1 - - 2

Germany 45 1 12 10 2 1

China 372 - 33 1 3 -

US

23 4 10 6 19 4(17)

Source: enf.cn2009m2


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Slide 22

m2 Notice the numberof Chinese players alone in the C-Si market - Would appeara definite no go for cell ormodule production in the UK

butabigmarket for complimentary technologies serving this market thatmight allow amanufacturer to differentiate its product -

US is going for GaAs CPV or variants in abig way.

UK is stand alone in DSSC market - the number in brackets denotes the number of new entrants in the pipeline - mostly in Organic PV17 for the USAgain notice the low number of players in the

CdTe arenamichael.cowin, 6/18/2009


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UK PV ComplementaryTechnologies

Si/TF

BasicMaterial

C-Si/GaAs

Wa er

Production

C-Si/GaAs

Solar Cell

Production

C-Si

Module

Production

Thin Film

Module

production

P

System

components

Sales

Installation

Maintenance

Highly urified Si Crystal drawing Cleaning Cell connection S uttering Inverters Trans ort Cleaning

Cleaning and

separatingprocess

Sawing Layer separation Lamination PECVD processBatteries,

material Elevation Repair

Chemicals Etching Diff usionGlass, EV

,

TedlarEtching

Mounting

materialWiring

Demount

Chemical Processes Etching Frame Laser Cables Sales

Recycling

Metal coating Connection box

Various

enrichments

Planning

Measuring Testing Vacuum Mounting

Pac aging


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UK PV Complementary Technologies

Mining, processing of raw materials such as Si, Cu, Te,In etc

Sawing machines (Si blocks to form wafers)

Wafer machines

Process cleaning

Cell machines

Wet chemistry (cleaning , structuring and AR coating)

Laser technology (contacts, sputtering)

Vacuum technology (PECVD, sputtering,monocrystalline Si production)

Printing machines (contacts)


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UK PV ComplementaryIndustry

3 UK companies involved in equipmentfor PV manufacturing

UK companies are involved across the PVvalue chain

Materials and equipment expertise for PVmanufacture is a UK strength with several

world class companies Particular strengths in thin film and III V

CPV solar cell production


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2009 26




UK P alueChainUK P alueChain ata

UK P alueChain Overview

Screen PrintingEquipment

MCI Cambridge

DEK PrintingMachines

Wa

er Processing

Equipment

STS

Laytontechnologies

Logitech

Applied

Microengineering

Coatings

ilms,

Metallisation

Busbar

ACC silicones

Solarwire

Electrapolymers

CPFilms

acuumEquipment

Edwards

Consarc

General Vacuum

Equipment

aserMicromaching

Equipment

Oxford Lasers

OpTEK Systems

M-Solv

Oerli on Optics UK Ltd

awMaterials Supply

Electrapolymers

ABSCOMaterials

Epichem (Sigma Aldrige)

Pilington

Pi-KEM

Keeling & Wal

er

Merc Speciality

Chemicals

PV Crystalox Solar

MCP

DepositionEquipment

Gencoa

Oxford Instruments

AppliedMultilayers

Veeco

OxfordApplied

Research

CVD Technologies

Thermco Systems

PlasmaQuest

National

DCentres

EPSRC III-V Centre

CREST

CSER

NaREC

PETEC

CellManu

acturer

EPOD

G24

NaREC

CST

IQE

Dyesol

ModuleManu

acturer

EPOD

G24

Sharp

Romag

Dyesol

Analysis,Metrology

Equipment

LSA

CERAM

EnergyEquipment

Testing

MicroMaterials

MATS (UK) Ltd [CSMA]

HidenAnalytical

Metryx

OR

S

Wa er based solar Thin Film based solar

m4


33/39

Slide 26

m4 We may see here that there is enough companies in the UK to serve the production/value chain ofa UKbased C- Si industry and more

importantly a UKbased thin film industry - the only missinggaps in the value chain are the companies actually producing the cell and

modules - other than thatmost of the value chain is already there and serving the overseas PV industry. Particular excellence in

deposition, materials (III-V, CdTe etc ) and analysis equipment - all vital to the Thin Film & CPV industry.michael.cowin, 6/18/2009


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2009 27




UK P alueChainConclusions

P Industry

Now silicon supply surplus, will drivec-Sicost down, willma e apossibly overpopulated sector verycompetitive

Thin ilm solar highest growth potential - CIGS ollowed byCdTe expected TF to have20% share o global P sector by2010

Thin ilm productionmethods stillin development but potentialmargins in thin ilm sector higher than c-Si

III- CP has a lot o potential limitedmar et reportcoverage buta lot o USinvestment and interestin development o associatedtechnologies such as concentrator optics

Feed in Tarrifs would have a hockey stickeffect on domestic Pindustry[Quote Sharp] But we do not havethecell andmodulemanufacturing capacityto capitalise

After allthat.. It appearsmargins are probably higher justininstallation..

m5


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Slide 27

m5 The surplus in silicon will now make the c-si market super competitive - especially when you see he number of players (chinamore so)

- bound to be shake up as TF takes more ofamarket share.

CAGR for this film is impressive even after the downgraded forecasts are taken ionto account due to the recession. III-V is also very

interestingarea that the US are targeting. [we here at OpTIC have had a lot of interest in solar concentrators for this application form

US and Germany which bears this out] With the CST/IQE development work on multijunction components and our capability this has

potential formanufacturing capability.michael.cowin, 6/18/2009


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2009 28




UK P alueChainConclusions

UK P alueChain

UK has comprehensive, world class valuechain capability exceptfor vitalgaps in Cell and ModuleManufacture aluechain currently provides goodsto overseas P industry

Good news ? ack oflegacyUKSi production facility allows clean sheetapproach to development ofnovelThin Film production capabilities

ManyUK P related organisations associations but no clear central body(without domesticmarket their usefulness is questionable - comment byUK Pindustry)

CdTe,III- solar sectors TheUK has centres ofexcellencein thesefields whichappears to coincide with market opportunity.

Market differentiation everything FirstSolar [CdTe 1Billion $ order book]ifUK wereto attemptto filltheCell and Module gaps in the P valuechainwould haveto have strong differentiation

Growing capabilityin organic solar cells via PETEC,CDT and emerging start ups

m6


37/39

Slide 28

m6 The majorgap is the lack of production capacity for cells and modules [other than sharp]

The rest of the value chain exists with notable excelence in Deposition techniques, lasermicromachingand chemical/material research.

This lack of legacu equipmentmay be ablessign in disguise.. high capital expenditure does not need to be justified by sticking with

c-Si. We are more agile and as such can move into the emerging Thin Film sector which will offer such costand efficiency advantages

that it will take agreater share of the market with time. Ultimately it will move to R2R production. There was a distinct lack of interest

and even contempt forassoc and orgs in the UK - general response - no market why bother we sell to overseas customers. CdTe and

III-V are without question great opportunities for the UK to move into to plug the gaps in the Value Chain - both areas where we havegreat expertise - Differentiation : Efficiency and costreduction is amassive customer draw away from C-Si as demonstrated by First

Solar CdTe 1 billion dollars with of orders - and they are the only major player. As mentioned already and well known the margins to

be had are equal if notgreater in the systems/installation arena - butbeyond the scope of this study.

Most publications, associations/forums/mags thatare used are usually based-produced overseas - since that is where the market is.michael.cowin, 6/18/2009


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UK Feed in Tariffs

Will we have feed in tariffs in the UK for PVinstallation?

In July 200 UK Govt announced in The UK

Low Carbon Transition PlanThe Government s putt ng n place f nanc al

rewards for small scale low car on electr c ty

generat on, w th Feed n Tar ffs from Apr l 1

A household with a well sited photovoltaicinstallation could receive over 800 plus billsavings of around 140 per year


39/39




Summary

UK is a minor player in the global PV cell andmodule production

UK has many companies who support the PVindustry worldwide in terms of productionequipment and materials

The UK Govt is about to introduce a form offeed in tariff for low carbon electricitygeneration of which PV is one option

This will change the UK PV domestic market This will lead to new opportunities for the UKs

PV solar cell/module manufacturing industry

session 1 - uk photo voltaic supply chain presented by alastair wilson

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