Venezuela’s Heavy-Oil Belt: Monitoring Exploration and Production-Related Land

Cover Changes

Chris W. BaynardDept of Geography, UF

Dept of World Languages, UNFSociety of Petroleum Engineers

Introduction• “One look at the largest corporations in the world and a

single conclusion jumps out: Natural resources are driving the global economy as never before.” (Lustgarten 2006)

• The extraction of natural resources produces marked impacts on the landscape.

• Most LULCC studies--deforestation in tropical regions - Main drivers agriculture and logging- Common thread: roads (Lele et al. 2000, Espírito-Santo et al. 2005, Bevilacqua et al. 2002, Faminow and Vosti 1998, Ferraz et al. 2006)

• Nonrenewables: Petroleum E&P also causes changes to land cover, but some practices create less disturbance than others (lack of attention in LULCC literature).(Almeida-Filho and Shimabukuru 2002)

Venezuela’s Heavy Oil Belt– Different companies

• 1 state company (PDVSA)• 3 European and 3 US MNOCs

– 4 strategic associations– Different political and economic incentives

• Populism vs. capitalism– Different E&P practices

• Business model (value added product–different API)

• Financial, HSE, CSR, sustainable development– Result in different petroscapes (hypothesis)

Research Question• Will associations with a greater state

involvement exhibit a greater petroscapeexpansion?

• Why?– Energy policy– Different ideology– Political alliances– Business practices

and culture – Monitoring schemes

Objectives• Determine which associations showed the

greatest and least reduction in natural vegetation tied to petroscape growth between 1990 and 2005 (pre, during, full)–using remote sensing and GIS techniques.

• Investigate political and economic incentives behind different behaviors.

• Estimate future development impacts.

Location

Research Site• Landscape:

– Dry tropical savanna, warm, marked wet/dry season• Economic activities:

– Small scale fishing and agriculture– Large scale farming and cattle ranching– Pine plantations– Petroleum E&P

(Chacón-Moreno 2004, Carbón & Schubert 1994,Rivas et al. 2004, Dumith 2004)

Heavy Oil Belt54,000 km²

1.23 trillion barrels250 billion recoverable

HOB Business ModelExtract and convert unconventional crude into a value added product--syncrude

• Extract heavy crude via cold production• Add a diluent at well head• Initial processing (degass, dewater, desalt)• Pipeline to coast• Upgrade• Sell open market, further refine offshore(Total 2005, Guerra 2005)

Energy Policy• Increase production to 5 million b/d• Increase state control (telecom, electricity, oil)• Raise tax rates and royalties• Create alliances with state companies (governments)• Diversify clients–US Asia • Increase heavy oil belt production• Fund infrastructure and social programs• Consolidate power, military buildup• Certify nonconventional oil deposits (HOB)–surpass

Saudi Arabia(PDVSA 2005-2007)

Theoretical Framework• Political Ecology

– The political economy of environmental change (Bryant and Bailey 1997)

– The study of the interaction between socioeconomic behavior and the natural environment (Rubenstein 2004)

– People’s response to economic opportunities,filtered by political and market institutions, drives land use land cover change (Lambin et al. 2001)

Political EcologyThree Assumptions:

1. The environment is politicized and the economy is embedded in the environment.

2. Economic and political incentives drive human behavior in relation to environmental use, access, exclusion and degradation.

3. Solutions to environmental problems are policy issues that must be carefully configured, legislated and enforced.

(Bryant and Bailey 1997; Diamond 2003, 2005; Lambin et al. 2001; Musinsky et al. 1998; Schneider and Dyer 2006; Little 2001; Morhardt 2002)

Methods: Remote Sensing and GISAim: low-cost, readily available imagery• Image Selection: 3/4 Associations• Rectify• Find HOB and Associations• Change Detection Dataset

– Landsat TM and ETM+: Apr 19 1990, Apr 30 2000 (p01 r054)

– CBERS CCD2: 2005 (mosaic Feb 20 p180 r90, Jan 25 p180 r91)

• Subset Images • Mask Clouds• NDVI• Image Differencing• Set Thresholds-Truncate Other Values, Measure Change• Overlay 2005 Vector Data• Measure Road Density(Jensen 2005, Southworth et al. 2004, Scheider and Dyer 2006)

HOB Associations

PDVSA 41.67%Exxon 41.67%BP 16.66%

PDVSA 30%Conoco 40%Chevron 40%

PDVSA 49.9%Conoco 50.1%

PDVSA 38%Total 47%Statoil 15%

Partners

Cerro NegroAmerivenPetrozuataSincorProject

(2005 Petroenergy Map)

-25% Highlight Change1990-2000

Sincor78 km² (15%)

Petrozuata40 km² (13%)

Ameriven300 km² (45%)

Manual Highlight Change1990-2000(lower threshold)

Sincor36 km² (7%)

Petrozuata24 km² (8%)

Ameriven80 km² (12%)

2005 Petroscape/Infrastructure 300m buffer

Sincor Petrozuata

Ameriven

-25% Highlight Change 1990-2000

with 2005 Petroscape/Infrastructure

Sincor Petrozuata

Ameriven

-25% Highlight Change1990-2000

Control 02230 km² (40%)

Control 07293 km² ( 51%)

Control 04207 km² (36%)

Control Groups

25% Highlight Change (1990-2000)

with 2005 Petroscape/Infrastructure

Control 02Control 04

Control 07

Control Groups

Conclusion

• Associations – Agriculture: central driver of LULCC

• Ameriven and Control Group 07– Petroscape:

• Main driver of LULCC in Sincor and Petrozuata• Secondary driver in Ameriven and Control Group 07• Landscape affected: Sincor 78km² (15%)

vs. Petrozuata 40 km² (13%)• Road density (k/km²): Sincor 4.68, Petrozuata 4.22,

Control 07 2.05 (7.86)

Implications• Global oil demand Supplies • Plans to increase HOB oil production:

– 27 new blocks by 2030– Certify and quantify HOB reserves with state companies

• Venezuela Reserves OPEC

– E & P has already begun– Methods useful for baseline & subsequent E&P– Uncover companies with best practices– Monitor upcoming land conversion: 2,106 km²

(813 sq miles ~ Jax)(PDVSA, Janks and Prelat 1994, Musinsky et al. 1998)

Future Work

• Cerro Negro–better images, incorporate into current study

• Start baseline studies for upcoming 27 blocks

• Compare E&P patterns in the first of these 27 blocks

Acknowledgments• Society of Petroleum Engineers• UNF: Dr. David Lambert, Robert Richardson• UF: Drs. Michael Binford, Jane Southworth, Tim Fik; Matt Marsik• INPE: María Madalena Godoy Mello• ExxonMobil Venezuela/Operadora Cerro Negro: Carlos Guerra,

Rómulo Medina• PDVSA• Chevron Venezuela• Total• Shell Venezuela• BP Venezuela• ConocoPhillips USA• Instituto Geográfico de Venezuela Simón Bolívar: Alicia Moreau,

Deud Dumith, José Acosta• SPE: Mark Shemaria and Tom Knode

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Questions?

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