september 28, 2015 health checkcontent.icicidirect.com/mailimages/idirect_healthcheck_sep15.pdf ·...
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ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
September 28, 2015
Monthly Update
Cipla joins acquisition bandwagon… In a major acquisition drive, Cipla entered into an agreement to acquire two US-based companies, InvaGen Pharmaceuticals Inc and Exelan Pharmaceuticals Inc. The transaction is valued at US$550 million and is an all-cash deal. The combined revenues of these two companies in CY14 were ~US$200 million (~US$225 million TTM June 2015) with EBITDA margins of ~25%. Its revenues grew at ~20% CAGR over the last three years. According to the company, the deal is EPS accretive from the first year of consolidation. Cipla also acquired the exclusive rights to market skin care products of Percos India, in a deal worth an estimated | 90 crore. Brands from Percos will help improve Cipla's dermatology portfolio with an expanded offering into cosmetology. In an innovative product marketing deal, DRL has signed a commercialisation deal with Hatchtech, an Australian pharma company for marketing its innovative head lice product Xeglyze lotion in the US, Canada, India, CIS, Australia, New Zealand and Venezuela. The deal includes upfront payment, pre-commercialisation milestones and certain amount post commercialisation. Sun has finalised the acquisition of US-based ophthalmology firm InSite Vision Inc. The deal has been valued at ~| 300 crore representing US$0.35 per share for each InSite Vision share on the US OTC stock exchange. InSite's CY14 revenues were ~ | 55 crore. Sun is in the process of divesting some of Ranbaxy’s divisions as a part of its existing reshuffle. The company has signed an agreement with Strides Arcolab to transfer two of its divisions Solus and Solus care (CNS) for a consideration of | 165 crore. The products in these divisions accounted for annual sales of | 92 crore. In a major setback to Sun’s remedial efforts at Halol, the subsidiary SPARC has received a complete response letter (CRL) from USFDA, rescinding the approval it received for Epilepsy drug Elepsia XR (Levetiracetam extended-release tablets) saying that the status of Sun’s manufacturing Halol facility was unacceptable on the date of approval. On the domestic front, the Indian pharmaceutical market (IPM) registered a growth of 13% YoY to | 8281 crore for August. The growth was mainly driven by volume growth – 5.2% price hikes – 4.8% and new product launches – 3.1%. Among our covered companies, Glenmark registered highest growth of 28.0% YoY followed by Torrent, Lupin, Ajanta and Dr Reddy’s clocking growth of 21.7%, 21.2%, 18.3% and 14.9%, respectively.
Product approvals, currency tailwinds, M&As to weigh
With a marked improvement on the USFDA approvals front (73 approvals YTD in FY16 including new acquisitions vs. 85 approvals in the whole of FY15) buying activity has resumed in most US focused pharma stocks. Similarly, the rupee has weakened vis-à-vis the US$ and is likely to weaken further from the current level, which is likely to nullify the currency impact in Europe and RoW. We continue to maintain our long term bullish view on the sector despite premium valuations on the back of earning visibility, consistent operating cash flows and strong balance sheets.
Health CheckSector View
Outperformer
Index performance as on September 24, 2015
Return (%) 1M 3M YTD 1Y
CNX 500 0 -5 -3 4
Nifty 0 -6 -5 -1
CNX Pharma 1 7 18 24
Return (%)
Stocks Performance Mcap
Company 1M 3M YTD 1Y 24-Sep
Sun Pharma.Inds. -2 0 5 7 208253
Lupin 10 11 43 48 91772
Dr Reddy's Labs 0 19 29 30 71344
Cipla -2 4 3 6 51881
Aurobindo Pharma 0 6 33 72 44259
Cadila Health. 9 20 31 61 42907
Glaxosmit Pharma -2 1 4 23 28232
Glenmark Pharma. -14 3 31 47 28491
Divi's Lab. -1 22 30 30 29652
Torrent Pharma. -12 6 26 64 24023
Apollo Hospitals 5 8 25 29 19695
Wockhardt 4 -1 39 80 15521
Ajanta Pharma 1 -7 56 109 12731
Pfizer 11 26 19 67 11689
Biocon 0 -5 3 -11 8804
Ipca Labs. 0 8 7 3 9841
Natco Pharma 4 8 55 71 8265
Strides Arcolab 4 10 29 123 7403
Indoco Remedies 0 -9 6 17 3050
Jubilant Life 8 122 213 144 6042
Unichem Labs. 12 59 24 38 2734
Return (%)
Mcap: Market cap in | crore
Price movement
50006000700080009000
100001100012000130001400015000
Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
CNX Pharma Nifty (RHS)
Research Analyst
Siddhant Khandekar [email protected] Mitesh Shah [email protected]
Nandan Kamat [email protected]
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 2
Regulatory approvals
Exhibit 1: Summary of USFDA approvals for August 2015
[5
Company Drug Name Therapeutic Area Innovator company Generic Version of Market SizeAjanta Pharma Monteculast Sodium CVS Merck Singulair US$ 3.5 billionAlembic Pharma Celecoxib Anti-Inflammatory Go Searle Celebrex US$ 2.44 billionAurobindo Pharma Alprazolam CNS Pharmacia & UpJohn Xanax US$ 26.5 millionAurobindo Pharma Cetrizine Hydrochloride Allergy Anti-histamine McNeil Consumer Zyrtec Allergy US$ 146.3 millionAurobindo Pharma Omeprazole Gastro Intestinal Astrazeneca Prilosec US$ 185 millionAurobindo Pharma Ibandronate Sodium Osteoporosis Roche Bonva US$ 450 millionAurobindo Pharma Entecavir Anti-viral Bristol Myers Squibb Baraclude US$ 328 millionAurobindo Pharma Raloxifene Hydrochloride Osteoporosis Lilly Evista US$ 209.3 millionAurolife Methadone Hydrochloride Pain Management Mallinckrodt Methadone NADr. Reddy's Labs Pramipazole Dihydrochloride CNS Boehinger Ingelhem Mirapex ER NAGlenmark Pharma Drosperenone and Ethinyl Estradiol Gynecolgy Bayer Hlthcare Yaz US$ 347 millionLupin Bekyree Gynecolgy Organon USA Cyclessa US$ 22.5 millionLupin Fenofibrate CVS Skyepharma Triglide US$ 156 millionLupin Diclofenac Sodium Anti-Inflammatory Nuvo Res Inc Pennsaid US$ 13.3 millionLupin Omeprazole Gastro Intestinal Astrazeneca Prilosec US$ 185 millionSun Pharma Tetrabanazine Pain Management Valeant Pharms Xenazine NATorrent Pharma Tolterodine Tartrate Nephralogy Pharmacia & UpJohn Detrol LA US$ 571.5 millionZydus Cadila Amiloride Hydrochloride CVS Paddock LLC Midamor NA
Final Approvals
CNS: Central Nervous System; CVS: Cardiovascular, NA: Not available; Source: USFDA, ICICIdirect.com Research
M&As, demergers and JVs
Cipla to acquire InvaGen and Exelan Pharma Cipla has entered into an agreement to acquire two US-based companies, InvaGen Pharmaceuticals Inc and Exelan Pharmaceuticals Inc. The transaction is valued at US$550 million and is an all-cash deal. The combined revenues of these two companies in CY14 were ~US$200 million (~US$225 million TTM June 2015) with EBITDA margins of ~25%. Its revenues grew at ~20% CAGR over the last three years. As per the company, the deal is EPS accretive from the first year of consolidation. Cipla to market skin care products of Percos India Cipla has acquired the exclusive rights to market skin care products of Percos India, in a deal worth an estimated | 90 crore. Brands from Percos will help improve Cipla's dermatology portfolio with an expanded offering into cosmetology. Sun Pharma to acquire InSite Vision Inc in US Sun Pharma plans to acquire US-based ophthalmology firm InSite Vision Inc. The deal may be valued at ~| 300 crore representing US$0.35 per share for each InSite Vision share on US OTC stock exchange. InSite's CY14 revenues stood at ~ | 55 crore. Sun Pharma sells two CNS divisions to Strides Arcolab Sun Pharma has signed an agreement with Strides Arcolab to transfer two of its divisions Solus and Solus Care (CNS) for a consideration of | 165 crore. The products in these divisions accounted for annual sales of | 92 crore. Sun Pharma is in the process of divesting or exiting some of Ranbaxy’s divisions as part of its existing strategy. Strides Arcolab would be positively impacted by this acquisition as it would increase its presence in the domestic market. Sun Pharma to divest manufacturing plant in Ireland Sun Pharma is looking to divest a manufacturing plant in Ireland (formerly owned by Ranbaxy) as it tries to control costs that have spiralled since it bought Ranbaxy. As per the management, the divestment is not expected to have any large effect on the company’s revenues.
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 3
DRL enters into licensing agreement with PanTheryx DRL and PanTheryx have entered into a licensing agreement that grants DRL exclusive rights to market and distribute PanTheryx’s nutritional intervention, DiaResQ, for infectious diarrhoea in India and Nepal. It will market the product in India and Nepal under the Reliqua brand. DRL signs agreement with Hatchtech to market its innovative product Dr Reddy's Labs has signed a commercialisation deal with Hatchtech, an Australian pharma company for marketing its innovative head lice product Xeglyze lotion in the US, Canada, India, CIS, Australia, New Zealand and Venezuela. As part of the agreement, DRL will pay US$10 million upfront, up to US$50 million based on pre-commercialisation milestones and certain amount post commercialisation. DRL acquires IP rights of fondaparinux DRL has acquired worldwide exclusive intellectual property rights of fondaparinux sodium (anti-coagulant drug) from Alchemia Ltd. Under the binding terms, Alchemia will receive US$17.5 million in cash from DRL upon closing of the transaction. Jubilant signs pact with Cyclopharm to market Technegas in US Jubilant Life Sciences has entered into an agreement with Australia’s Cyclopharm (CYC) to market Technegas in the US. Jubilant will assist CYC with the development and financing of the phase III clinical trials for Technegas. Technegas is an imaging agent primarily used in Pulmonary Embolism (blockage of lung arteries). Jubilant will provide at risk up to US$4.5 million to fund the USFDA clinical trial and any additional costs will be funded by both parties equally. Post commercialisation, Jubilant will pay CYC a 17.5% royalty on sale in addition to an agreed margin above the cost of goods sold. Capex, investments, fund raising
Natco Pharma to raise equity through QIP Natco Pharma has proposed to place equity shares to eligible qualified institutional buyers through a qualified institutional placement. Natco Pharma received RBI approval to raise its FII and registered foreign portfolio investors (RFPI) limit to 31.5%. Currently, Natco Pharma has FII holdings of 9.33%. Price cuts, new launches, recalls
DRL recalls drugs in US The company recalled a total of 60 bottles of 2952 units of Rivastigmine Tartrate capsules of 1.5 mg strength from the US. The batch was manufactured at the company’s Bachupally unit and the recall was initiated under "Class II" classification. It has also recalled over 55,000 bottles of Amlodipine besylate and Atorvastatin calcium tablets, used to treat high blood pressure and cholesterol related diseases, in the US. This recall was initiated under Class-III.
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 4
Lawsuits, court rulings, settlements
Former employees file lawsuit against Sun Pharma A class action lawsuit has been filed in the US against Sun Pharma by some former employees following the shutdown of a manufacturing unit at Detroit in Michigan. USFDA rejects SPARC's anti-epileptic drug application SPARC has received a complete response letter (CRL) from USFDA, rescinding the approval it received for Epilepsy drug Elepsia XR (Levetiracetam extended-release tablets) saying the status of Sun Pharma’s manufacturing Halol facility was unacceptable on the date of approval. R&D
Glenmark completes Phase I trials for GBR 830 Glenmark Pharma has completed clinical phase I studies for its novel monoclonal antibody 'GBR 830' for treating autoimmune diseases in the Netherlands. Glenmark completes pre-clinical trials for GBR 1302 Glenmark's bi-specific anti-cancer anti-body GBR 1302 has completed pre-clinical trials and is set to enter phase 1 clinical trials in Germany.
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 5
Exhibit 2: Patent litigations in last 12 months
[5
Month Innovator ANDA Filer Brand Name API Used for Aug-14 Janssen Products LP Cipla Ltd. Prezista Darunavir HIVAug-14 Forest Labs Lupin Ltd. Namenda Memantine Hydrochloride CNSAug-14 Senju Pharma Ltd. Lupin Ltd. Prolensa Bromfenac Ocular InflammationAug-14 Novartis Pharma Dr. Reddy's Labs Gleevec Imatinib Mesylate Organ RejectionSep-14 Millenium Pharmaceuticals Glenmark Pharma Valcade Bortezomib Multiple MylomaSep-14 Teva Pharma Dr. Reddy's Labs Copaxon Glatiramer Acetate Multiple SclerosisSep-14 Reckitt Benckiser LLC Aurobindo Pharma Mucinex Guaifenesin MucusSep-14 Cephalon Inc. Dr. Reddy's Labs Treanda Bendamustine LeukemiaSep-14 Cephalon Inc. Sun Pharma Treanda Bendamustine LeukemiaOct-14 Novartis Pharma Dr. Reddy's Labs Gleevec Imatinib LeukemiaOct-14 Braintree Laboratory Inc. Taro Pharma Suprep Sodium Sulphate Bowel PreparationOct-14 Cephalon Inc. Wockhardt Treanda Bendamustine LeukemiaNov-14 Biomarin Pharma Dr. Reddy's Labs Kuvan Sapropterin Dihydrochloride phenylketonuriaNov-14 Otsuka Pharma Cadila Healthcare Abilify Aripiprazole CNSNov-14 Otsuka Pharma Alembic Pharma Abilify Aripiprazole CNSJan-15 iCeutica Lupin Ltd. Zorvolex Diclofenac Anti-InflammatoryJan-15 Senju Pharma Lupin Ltd. Prolensa Bromfenac Eye InflammationJan-15 Sheonogi & Co. Aurobindo Pharma Doribax Doripenem InfectionJan-15 Teva Pharma Dr. Reddy's Labs Copaxone Glatiramer Multiple SclerosisFeb-15 Roxane Laboratories Lupin Ltd. Roxane Calcium Acetate Calcium Acetate Serum phosphorous ReductionFeb-15 Cephalon Inc. Glenmark Generics Treanda Bendamustine LeukemiaFeb-15 Cephalon Inc. Dr. Reddy's Labs Treanda Bendamustine LeukemiaMar-15 Otsuka Pharma Indoco Remedies Abilify Aripiprazole CNSApr-15 Sanofi Aventis Dr. Reddy's Labs Jevtana KIT Cabazitaxel Prostate CancerApr-15 Sanofi Aventis Glenmark Jevtana KIT Cabazitaxel Prostate CancerApr-15 Medicis Pharma Taro Pharma Zyclara Imiquimod Actinic KeratosesApr-15 Alcon Research Wockhardt Patanol Olopatadine hydrochloride Allergic ConjunctivitisApr-15 Janssen Products LP Cipla Prezista Darunavir Anti-Retroviral Apr-15 Teva Pharma Dr. Reddy's Labs Copaxone Glatiramer Multiple SclerosisApr-15 Eli Lilly Lupin Effient Prasugrel CVSApr-15 Horizon Pharma Lupin Pennsaid Diclofenac Osteoporosis May-15 Apotex Inc. Lupin Paxil CR Paroxitine Hydrochloride Anti-AnxietyMay-15 Galderma Labs Glenmark Epiduo Adapalene; Benzoyl Peroxide AcneMay-15 Horizon Pharma Dr. Reddy's Labs Vimovo Esmoprazole Magnesium; Naproxe Osteoporosis May-15 Merz Pharma Taro Pharma Naftin Naftifine Hydrochloride Fungal InfectionMay-15 Takeda Zydus Pharma Daliresp Roflumilast CVSMay-15 Takeda Strides Daliresp Roflumilast CVSMay-15 Acorda Therapeutics Inc. Sun Pharma Ampyra Dalframpridine Multiple SclerosisMay-15 Merck Lupin Safyral Drospiranone; Ethinyl Estradiol; LevBirth ControlMay-15 Kowa Lupin Livalo Pitavastatin Calcium High CholestrolJun-15 Millenium Pharmaceuticals Dr. Reddy's Labs Valcade Bortezomib Anti-CancerJun-15 Millenium Pharmaceuticals Sun Pharma Valcade Bortezomib Anti-CancerJun-15 Reckitt Benckiser LLC Dr. Reddy's Labs Mucinex Guaifenesin; Pseudoephedrine HCl Bronchial ConjestionJul-15 Eli Lilly Lupin Axiron Hypogonadism TestosteroneJul-15 Fresenius Medical Gavis Pharma Phoslo Calcium Acetate Kidney DiseaseJul-15 Alcon Research Lupin TravatanZ Travoprost Ophthalmic solution Elevated Intraocular pressureAug-15 Allergan Lupin Namenda Memantine Hydrochoride Alzheimer's Disease
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 6
IPM grows 13% in August… • The Indian pharmaceutical market (IPM) registered growth of 13% YoY to
| 8281 crore for August. The growth was mainly driven by volume growth – 5.2% price hikes – 4.8% and new product launches – 3.1%
• Drugs under the NLEM list witnessed growth of 3.3% YoY to | 1008 crore while non-NLEM drugs posted growth of 14.5% to | 6912 crore. Volume growth in NLEM & non-NLEM was -2.7% and 2.4%, respectively
• Among our covered companies, Glenmark has registered highest growth of 28.0% YoY followed by Torrent, Lupin, Ajanta and Dr Reddy’s clocking growth of 21.7%, 21.2%, 18.3 and 14.9%, respectively
• Therapy wise, nine therapies have outpaced IPM growth. Notable among them with growth rates- anti-diabetic – 25.6%, dermatology- 19.0%, Cardio – 18.7%, gastro intestinal – 15.3% and pain 10.8%. Anti-infective and respiratory segments registered just 2.7% and 2.2% growth, respectively, in August 2015
• In all, 229 new brands were launched in August 2015 • On a MAT basis, IPM growth was at 14.5% YoY to | 91230 crore • Domestic companies have grown 12.4% while MNC companies have
grown 15.1% in August 2015 Exhibit 3: Domestic formulations - growth trend
12.0
21.4
8.1
12.8 15
.3
14.0 15
.5
19.9 21
.8
20
12.6
12.8
13.0
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Indian Pharma Market[
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 4: Companies growth in domestic market in August 2015
21.7
11.1
-1.5
11.0
18.324.6
11.1
19.516.0
21.2
3.0
-0.3
28.0
14.9
10.6
7.3
-10
0
10
20
30
Woc
khar
dt
Unic
hem
Torr
ent
Sun
Phar
ma
Pfize
r
Nov
artis
Lupi
n
Ipca
Lab
s
Indo
co
GSK
Phar
ma
Glen
mar
k
Dr. R
eddy
s
Cipl
a
Cadi
la
Bioc
on
Ajan
ta
(%)
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Therapy wise performance (| crore) Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 YoY (%) July'15 MoM (%)Anti-Infectives 1288 1261 2.2 1214 6.1Cardiac 1007 848 18.7 1045 -3.6Gastro Intestinal 990 859 15.3 1039 -4.7Vitamins 756 676 11.8 782 -3.3Anti Diabetic 664 528 25.6 683 -2.9Respiratory 579 564 2.7 540 7.2Pain 591 533 10.8 584 1.2CNS 503 425 18.4 519 -3.1Derma 495 416 19.0 499 -0.8Gynaecological 407 360 13.1 422 -3.4Hormones 149 115 29.6 143 4.1Vaccines 137 123 11.8 135 2.0Anti-Neoplastics 145 124 16.3 147 -1.7Ophthal 119 100 19.2 120 -0.7Blood Related 101 89 12.8 102 -1.3Others 102 71 43.1 98 4.4Urology 91 77 18.5 94 -3.2Anti Malarials 54 61 -11.6 46 17.9Sex Stimulants 40 36 12.0 41 -2.5Stomatologicals 33 31 7.2 35 -4.3 Source: AIOCD data base
Top brands in Indian pharma market Brand Company Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 Gr. (%)Augmentin GSK Anti-Infectives 330.0 266.1 24.0Corex Pfizer Respiratory 261.7 218.9 19.5Becosules Pfizer Vitamins 257.8 232.4 10.9Lantus Sanofi Anti Diabetic 241.2 186.9 29.0Spasmo Prox Wockhard GI 234.4 145.8 60.8Clavam Alkem Anti-Infectives 221.7 218.3 1.6Galvus Met Novartis Anti Diabetic 216.4 160.5 34.8Volini Ranbaxy Pain 204.3 218.8 -6.6Shelcal Torrent Vitamins 191.4 107.0 78.9Skinlite Cadila Derma 190.9 157.2 21.4
Source: AIOCD data base; Date as per MAT August15 & August 14 Industry acute to chronic therapy ratio percentage…
Sub-Chronic, 18927.0,
20.5%
Acute, 44425.5,
48.2%
Chronic, 28818.8,
31.3%
Source: AIOCD data base ; As per AIOCD MAT Aug 2015
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 7
Sun Pharmaceuticals
Stock Performance
80
125
170
Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15
CNX Pharma Sun Pharma
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research Exhibit 5: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
12.0
21.4
8.1
12.8 15
.3
14.0
19.9 21
.8
18.5
12.6
15.5
12.8
13.0
11.9
11.6
5.6
12.7
15.8
11.1
10.7
14.4
18.4
15.8
23.0
17.1
11.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Sun Pharmaceutical Industries
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 6: Market share in Indian formulations market
8.68.2
8.89.2 9.0 9.2
8.48.7 8.9
9.3 9.2 9.08.5
6.0
6.6
7.2
7.8
8.4
9.0
9.6
10.2
10.8
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research * Included Ranbaxy’s sales
Exhibit 7: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 Var. (%) July'15 Var. (%)
Volini Pain 19.2 20.5 -6.3 17.6 9.4
Rosuvas Cardiac 13.0 9.1 42.9 13.7 -4.7
Gemer Anti Diabetic 12.3 10.6 16.5 13.8 -10.5
Istamet Anti Diabetic 12.1 8.9 35.6 13.8 -12.6
Levipil Neuro 11.7 9.1 28.6 12.2 -4.1
Susten Gynaecological 11.5 9.6 20.7 13.2 -12.8
Pantocid Gastro Intestinal 11.2 11.6 -3.7 12.6 -11.8
Pantocid Dsr Gastro Intestinal 9.6 8.2 18.2 10.6 -9.0
Revital H Vitamins 9.4 0.0 NA 9.6 -2.4
Aztor Cardiac 9.0 7.5 20.4 9.9 -8.5
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 8: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15) z
Neuro 35%
Cardiac23%
Gastro Intestinal19%
Anti Diabetic15%
Gynaecological8%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 9: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 YoY (%) July'15 QoQ (%)
Neuro 115.1 99.5 15.7 126.5 -9.0
Cardiac 79.4 68.6 15.8 88.0 -9.7
Gastro Intestinal 67.9 58.5 16.2 75.0 -9.4
Anti Diabetic 53.3 43.8 21.6 60.3 -11.5
Gynaecological 26.5 25.0 5.8 29.8 -11.1
Pain 18.7 16.0 17.1 21.2 -11.9
Ophthal 18.0 15.5 16.2 19.1 -5.6
Respiratory 14.1 14.5 -2.9 15.9 -11.2
Vitamins 15.5 11.8 31.3 16.9 -8.4
Hormones 8.5 9.6 -11.2 9.7 -12.0
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Aug’15)
Sub-Chronic, 1123.3, 13.7%
Acute, 3335.4, 40.8%
Chronic, 3723.2, 45.5%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15)
17%
9%
7%
9%58%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 8
Cipla
Stock Performance
80
110
140
170
200
Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15
CNX Pharma Cipla
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 10: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
12.0
21.4
8.1
12.8 15
.3
14.0
19.9 21
.8
18.5
12.6 15
.5
12.8
13.0
15.4
38.8
10.3
8.3 13
.5
13.2
24.0
24.8
25.4
15.9
16.6
11.5
11.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Cipla
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 11: Market share in Indian formulations market
4.9
5.4
5.04.8
5.05.1
5.25.1
5.3
4.8
4.6 4.74.8
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Cipla
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 12: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 Var. (%) July'15 Var. (%)
Foracort Respiratory 15.3 12.7 20.9 14.6 5.2
Budecort Respiratory 11.0 10.8 2.1 9.9 11.0
Seroflo Respiratory 10.7 9.6 12.0 10.5 2.4
Asthalin Respiratory 10.6 10.5 0.2 9.9 6.1
Duolin Respiratory 9.4 8.4 12.0 8.7 7.9
Aerocort Respiratory 7.8 7.9 -0.6 7.3 7.2
Azee Anti-Infectives 7.7 7.5 2.9 6.9 11.1
Montair Lc Respiratory 5.9 5.0 17.8 5.1 16.2
Novamox Anti-Infectives 5.8 6.9 -16.7 5.9 -2.9
Dytor Cardiac 5.7 5.3 7.6 6.2 -8.5
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 13: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15)
Respiratory30%
Anti-Infectives26%
Cardiac13%
Gastro Intestinal8%
Urology5%
Other18%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 14: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 YoY (%) July'15 QoQ (%)Respiratory 112.6 103.4 9.0 105.3 7.0Anti-Infect ives 109.4 102.8 6.4 101.6 7.7
Cardiac 46.7 43.3 7.9 50.2 -6.9Gastro Intestinal 32.2 27.9 15.6 33.6 -4.2
Urology 19.7 15.5 27.4 19.0 4.1Neuro 15.7 12.2 28.5 15.0 4.4
Pain 13.6 10.0 35.8 13.1 4.2
Ophthal 9.6 8.5 12.8 9.9 -2.4
Derma 10.2 8.7 17.0 10.0 1.5
Vitamins 8.2 7.7 5.5 7.9 3.6
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Aug ’15)
Sub-Chronic, 573.0, 12.4%
Acute, 2124.7, 46.1%
Chronic, 1909.6, 41.4%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15)
24%
12%
9%12%
43%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 9
Dr Reddy’s Laboratories
Stock Performance
70
100
130
160
Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15CNX Pharma Dr. Reddys
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 15: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
12.0
21.4
8.1 12
.8 15.3
14.0 19
.9 21.8
18.5
12.6 15
.5
12.8
13.0
23.1 25
.7
10.3
18.4 22
.8
22.2 24.1
34.3
35.0
22.8
32.2
26.9
14.9
-10
20
50
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Dr. Reddys Laboratories
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 16: Market share in Indian formulations market
2.32.3
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.22.3 2.3
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.3 2.3
2.02.12.12.22.22.32.32.42.42.52.5
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Dr. Reddys Laboratories
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 17: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 Var. (%) July'15 Var. (%)
Omez Gastro Intestinal 10.7 7.0 53.1 10.8 -1.0
Omez D Gastro Intestinal 7.2 6.2 16.3 7.5 -3.7
Reditux Anti-Neoplastics 6.1 4.5 33.5 5.1 19.6
Razo D Gastro Intestinal 6.0 3.7 61.8 5.9 2.2
Econorm Gastro Intestinal 5.7 4.8 18.0 6.2 -7.9
Grafeel Anti-Neoplastics 5.7 1.6 262.3 5.2 8.4
Nise Pain 5.4 6.1 -11.8 4.3 24.4
Stamlo Cardiac 5.1 4.1 25.5 5.2 -0.8
Clamp Anti-Infectives 3.6 3.7 -2.7 3.0 18.9
Stamlo Beta Cardiac 3.6 4.1 -12.0 4.1 -11.6
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 18: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15)
Gastro Intestinal22%
Cardiac15%
Anti-Neoplastics
11%Respiratory9%
Anti-Infectives8%
Other35%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 19: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 YoY (%) July'15 QoQ (%)
Gastro Intestinal 43.1 34.8 23.7 45.1 -4.6
Cardiac 27.1 24.5 10.5 28.6 -5.2
Anti-Neoplastics 26.0 17.9 45.3 26.1 -0.5
Respiratory 15.3 14.8 2.9 14.0 8.8
Anti-Infectives 15.1 14.5 4.1 14.1 7.4
Pain 13.3 13.4 -1.2 13.0 2.0
Anti Diabetic 12.3 11.3 8.9 12.7 -3.2
Derma 10.1 10.4 -2.8 10.7 -5.6
Urology 7.2 5.9 23.3 7.1 2.1
Stomatologicals 6.2 6.0 3.5 6.4 -2.8
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Aug’15)
Sub-Chronic, 406.6, 19.2%
Acute, 1068.5, 50.5%
Chronic, 642.4, 30.3%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15)
29%
17%
9%12%
33%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 10
Lupin
Stock Performance
75115155195
Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15
CNX Pharma Lupin
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 20: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
12.0
21.4
8.1
12.8 15
.3
14.0
19.9 21
.8
18.5
12.6
12.8
8.5
19.7
10.5 13
.7
18.1
14.9
22.8
19.1
16.1 18
.5
25.1
21.2
15.5
13.0
-4
12
28
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Lupin
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 21: Market share in Indian formulations market
3.23.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4
3.23.0
3.63.8 3.8 3.7
3.4
2.32.52.72.93.13.33.53.73.9
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Lupin
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 22: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 Var. (%) July'15 Var. (%)
Gluconorm-G Anti Diabetic 11.4 9.3 22.6 12.4 -7.6
Tonact Cardiac 8.4 7.0 20.7 9.7 -12.8
Budamate Respiratory 7.0 4.8 45.2 7.9 -11.5
Rablet-D Gastro Intestinal 4.7 3.8 21.8 5.2 -10.7
Rablet Gastro Intestinal 4.5 3.7 21.6 5.3 -15.8
Esiflo Respiratory 4.4 3.2 37.7 4.9 -11.7
Ramistar Cardiac 4.3 3.7 16.8 4.9 -12.3
R-Cinex Anti-Infectives 4.0 4.1 -0.6 3.9 4.1
Clopitab Cardiac 3.6 3.1 14.0 4.0 -9.8
Tazar Anti-Infectives 3.5 3.4 4.4 3.8 -8.6
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 23: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15)
Cardiac25%
Anti-Infectives22%
Respiratory12%
Anti Diabetic11%
Gastro Intestinal8%
Other22%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 24: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 YoY (%) July'15 QoQ (%)
Cardiac 69.9 54.5 28.4 80.5 -13.1
Anti-Infectives 61.9 59.1 4.7 64.8 -4.5
Respiratory 31.7 25.1 26.3 33.9 -6.6
Anti Diabetic 29.8 23.5 27.1 33.9 -11.9
Gastro Intestinal 23.1 18.8 22.6 26.0 -11.1
Vitamins 16.5 14.1 17.0 19.8 -16.4
Neuro 14.0 11.6 20.3 15.4 -8.9
Pain 12.8 10.8 18.5 14.9 -14.5
Gynaecological 9.8 6.2 58.7 10.9 -10.0
Derma 1.7 1.8 -1.1 1.9 -9.8
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Aug’15)
Sub-Chronic, 652.3, 20.5%
Acute, 993.5, 31.2%
Chronic, 1542.2, 48.4%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15)
20%
11%
9%13%
47%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 11
Cadila Healthcare
Stock Performance
5080
110140170200230
Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15
CNX Pharma Cadila Healthcare
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 25: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
12.0
21.4
8.1
12.8 15
.3
14.0
19.9 21
.8
18.5
12.6
15.5
12.8
13.0
10.1
12.8
1.9
8.5
12.7
7.0 7.4
11.4 13
.1
9.6
13.2
11.5
10.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Cadila Healthcare
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 26: Market share in Indian formulations market
3.8
3.6
3.8
4.03.9 3.9
3.83.8
3.93.8 3.8
3.73.8
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.1
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Cadila Healthcare
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 27: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 Var. (%) July'15 Var. (%)
Skinlite Derma 13.9 12.9 7.4 13.7 1.1
Mifegest Kit Gynaecological 11.2 9.6 16.4 9.1 23.6
Atorva Cardiac 10.5 8.6 21.5 10.9 -4.5
Pantodac Gastro Intestinal 8.0 8.2 -2.0 8.3 -3.6
Deriphyllin Respiratory 6.5 8.3 -22.1 7.7 -15.4
Falcigo Anti Malarials 6.3 5.3 18.7 4.9 28.1
Clopitorva Cardiac 6.0 3.4 78.1 4.8 26.2
Zyrop Blood Related 5.8 8.7 -33.8 5.8 -1.0
Amlodac Cardiac 5.6 5.3 4.7 6.0 -6.6
Ocid Gastro Intestinal 5.0 3.4 46.4 4.5 9.4
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 28: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15)
Cardiac19%
Gastro Intestinal14%
Gynaecological12%
Respiratory10%
Derma9%
Other36%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 29: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 YoY (%) July'15 QoQ (%)
Cardiac 57.2 48.3 18.5 59.3 -3.5
Gastro Intestinal 44.4 41.1 8.2 45.2 -1.6
Gynaecological 35.3 31.7 11.5 34.6 2.1
Respiratory 29.6 28.1 5.5 29.2 1.4
Derma 24.9 21.1 18.1 25.6 -2.5
Pain 24.5 23.2 5.5 24.1 1.5
Anti-Infectives 23.8 21.8 9.5 20.5 16.5
Vitamins 12.6 11.1 14.2 13.8 -8.4
Anti-Neoplastics 14.4 10.9 32.1 12.4 15.8
Anti Malarials 8.5 7.1 19.7 8.4 1.1
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Aug’15)
Sub-Chronic, 728.8, 20.7%
Acute, 1509.4, 42.9%
Chronic, 1276.5, 36.3%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15)
27%
13%
8%11%
41%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 12
GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals
Stock Performance
80
110
140
170
Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15
CNX Pharma GSK Pharma
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 30: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
12.0
21.4
8.1
12.8 15
.3
14.0
19.9 21
.8
18.5
12.6 15
.5
12.8
13.0
1.4
13.0
12.1
5.5
0.8
2.6 6.
6
10.8
12.9
0.7 2.1
-1.7 -0.3
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 31: Market share in Indian formulations market
3.6
3.53.4 3.4 3.4
3.3 3.3
3.43.4
3.2 3.23.1
3.2
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 32: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 Var. (%) July'15 Var. (%)
Augmentin Anti-Infectives 27.3 27.8 -1.9 26.5 3.0
Rotarix Vaccines 16.4 6.7 144.8 5.7 188.4
Calpol Pain 14.9 15.1 -1.4 13.3 11.8
Synflorix Vaccines 14.6 12.6 16.1 14.3 2.7
Zinetac Gastro Intestinal 12.6 12.2 3.9 12.5 1.5
Betnovate N Derma 12.2 9.1 33.9 12.4 -1.2
Betnovate C Derma 12.1 8.1 50.6 11.9 1.8
Eltroxin Hormones 11.3 11.1 1.7 10.9 3.5
Ceftum Anti-Infectives 11.1 10.4 6.6 11.7 -4.7
Betnesol Hormones 8.0 6.4 25.7 7.9 1.5
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 33: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15)
Anti-Infectives25%
Derma21%Vaccines
11%
Pain 9%
Hormones8%
Other26%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 34: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 YoY (%) July'15 QoQ (%)
Anti-Infectives 66.1 72.1 -8.2 63.9 3.5
Derma 53.3 48.4 10.2 57.5 -7.3
Vaccines 34.6 35.0 -1.1 27.7 24.9
Pain 25.2 24.8 1.6 23.0 9.4
Hormones 20.1 18.0 11.4 19.5 2.9
Vitamins 19.9 19.5 2.2 20.8 -4.2
Gastro Intestinal 15.2 15.1 0.5 15.1 0.1
Respiratory 14.0 15.6 -10.7 12.3 13.6
Cardiac 6.1 6.7 -8.4 6.2 -1.5
Gynaecological 4.1 2.8 45.7 4.2 -2.2
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Aug’15)
Sub-Chronic, 668.2, 21.8%
Acute, 1985.3, 64.7%
Chronic, 416.3, 13.6%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15)
50%
15%
9%
11%
15%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 13
Wockhardt
Stock Performance
050
100150200250300350400
Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15
CNX Pharma Wockhardt
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research Exhibit 35: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
12.0
21.4
8.1 12
.8 15.3
14.0 19
.9 21.8
18.5
12.6 15
.5
12.8
13.0
18.0
5.2
-4.5
44.9
8.5
-2.1
19.9
32.0
29.2
22.4
36.2
29.4
24.6
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Wockhardt
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 36: Market share in Indian formulations market
1.23
1.08
1.161.10
1.16
1.37
1.47
1.40
1.281.25
1.28
1.371.36
1.01.11.11.21.21.31.31.41.41.51.5
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Wockhardt
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 37: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 Var. (%) July'15 Var. (%)
Spasmo Proxyvon PluGastro Intestinal 22.9 16.1 42.4 29.9 -23.5
Practin Vitamins 6.2 4.4 41.2 6.5 -3.8
Tryptomer Neuro 5.8 3.8 52.3 5.0 14.2
Biovac V Vaccines 5.7 0.0 NA 6.2 -7.9
Biovac A Vaccines 5.5 1.6 238.8 4.2 30.2
Methycobal Vitamins 4.6 3.3 39.4 4.2 9.5
Bro Zedex Respiratory 3.6 4.5 -20.8 3.2 13.2
Ace Proxyvon Pain 3.1 2.6 21.0 2.8 9.4
Zedex Respiratory 2.4 3.4 -28.5 2.2 7.8
Wosulin Anti Diabetic 2.0 2.1 -5.8 2.0 1.2
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 38: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15) Gastro Intestinal
22%
Vitamins 16%
Respiratory13%
Vaccines9%
Neuro 8%
Other32%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 39: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 YoY (%) July'15 QoQ (%)
Gastro Intestinal 25.2 17.6 43.4 31.7 -20.4
Vitamins 18.2 14.8 22.7 17.7 2.6
Respiratory 10.4 13.4 -22.8 9.5 9.8
Vaccines 11.2 1.7 558.5 10.4 7.8
Neuro 9.5 6.8 40.3 8.6 9.7
Derma 7.4 9.1 -18.9 7.7 -4.2
Anti-Infectives 8.7 8.0 8.1 7.2 21.2
Pain 8.4 5.2 60.0 7.2 16.8
Anti Diabetic 6.9 5.6 23.7 6.6 4.1
Hormones 2.0 3.4 -42.3 2.4 -17.6
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Aug’15)
Sub-Chronic, 130.5, 11.1%
Acute, 821.1, 69.8%
Chronic, 224.9, 19.1%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15)
54%
16%
8%
8%
14%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 14
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals
Stock Performance
60
100
140
180
Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15CNX Pharma Glenmark
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 40: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
12.0
21.4
8.1
12.8 15
.3
14.0
19.9 21
.8
18.5
12.6 15
.5
12.8
13.0
9.1
27.2
2.6
20.4 21.5
21.4 24
.2 28.1 30
.3
29.8
34.5
30.9
28.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Glenmark Pharmaceuticals
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 41: Market share in Indian formulations market
2.1
2.3
2.1
2.4 2.42.4
2.32.3 2.3
2.2
2.32.4 2.4
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 42: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 Var. (%) July'15 Var. (%)
Telma Cardiac 14.0 10.7 30.6 14.8 -5.4
Telma H Cardiac 11.2 8.7 28.7 11.4 -2.1
Candid Derma 7.8 5.7 36.6 9.1 -13.7
Candid-B Derma 7.6 7.2 5.0 8.3 -9.3
Ascoril Plus Respiratory 7.1 7.6 -6.2 7.5 -5.4
Zitamet Anti Diabetic 6.6 4.4 50.1 7.0 -5.6
Telma Am Cardiac 5.9 4.2 41.6 6.1 -2.6
Zita(Glenmark) Anti Diabetic 4.2 3.1 38.0 4.7 -10.7
Onabet Derma 3.2 1.7 93.8 3.0 8.6
Ascoril Ls Respiratory 3.2 2.4 36.4 2.9 11.2
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 43: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15)
Derma28%
Cardiac23%
Respiratory15%
Anti-Infectives14%
Anti Diabetic9%
Other11%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 44: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 YoY (%) July'15 QoQ (%)
Derma 57.0 44.5 28.0 59.4 -4.1
Cardiac 43.0 33.1 30.0 44.6 -3.6
Respiratory 25.6 22.4 14.0 24.8 3.1
Anti-Infectives 28.1 22.5 24.8 26.6 5.4
Anti Diabetic 17.7 11.8 50.2 18.0 -1.7
Gastro Intestinal 4.7 3.6 29.9 5.0 -6.1
Vitamins 5.7 3.7 56.2 5.8 -0.7
Pain 4.1 3.5 19.1 4.0 4.0
Gynaecological 3.6 3.0 20.2 3.2 13.9
Otologicals 3.8 3.3 17.5 3.8 1.3
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Aug’15)
Sub-Chronic, 481.6, 22.5%
Acute, 858.2, 40.1%
Chronic, 799.2, 37.4%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15)
37%
13%10%
12%
28%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 15
Torrent Pharmaceuticals
Stock Performance
80
170
260
Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15
CNX Pharma Torrent Pharma
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 45: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
12.0
21.4
8.1
12.8 15
.3
14.0
19.9 21
.8
18.5
12.6 15
.5
12.8
13.0
8.4
18.5
6.0
23.2
30.7
21.1
30.9
30.5
28.8
27.4
28.3
18.3 21
.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Torrent Pharmaceuticals
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 46: Market share in Indian formulations market
2.10 2.112.23
2.302.42
2.35 2.402.32
2.432.49 2.512.37
2.26
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Torrent Pharmaceuticals
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 47: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 Var. (%) July'15 Var. (%)
Shelcal Vitamins 14.5 10.8 34.5 20.2 -28.1
Chymoral Forte Pain 11.9 4.8 147.5 10.6 12.6
Nikoran Cardiac 7.2 6.0 20.6 6.5 10.4
Dilzem Cardiac 4.9 4.7 4.4 5.1 -3.1
Nebicard Cardiac 4.7 4.0 17.1 5.0 -4.5
Azulix-Mf Anti Diabetic 4.5 3.6 23.0 4.8 -6.8
Nexpro Rd Gastro Intestinal 4.1 4.4 -6.4 4.3 -4.3
Nexpro Gastro Intestinal 3.9 3.9 0.5 4.1 -4.0
Shelcal Ct Vitamins 3.2 2.2 48.4 2.6 24.0
Alprax Neuro 3.1 2.7 13.5 3.3 -5.1
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 48: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15)
Cardiac28%
Neuro 16%Gastro Intestinal
15%
Vitamins 15%
Pain 8%
Other18%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 49: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 YoY (%) July'15 QoQ (%)
Cardiac 54.3 45.1 20.3 54.5 -0.4
Neuro 30.1 25.2 19.5 31.2 -3.4
Gastro Intestinal 26.8 26.0 3.2 28.8 -6.8
Vitamins 27.5 19.5 41.3 32.6 -15.8
Pain 16.9 8.2 106.9 15.6 8.4
Anti-Infectives 9.3 12.8 -27.2 10.1 -7.7
Anti Diabetic 10.9 8.9 22.4 11.6 -6.3
Derma 4.4 3.1 40.2 4.5 -3.5
Gynaecological 3.3 3.0 10.1 3.6 -9.5
Blood Related 0.6 0.5 1.4 0.7 -17.8
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Aug’15)
Sub-Chronic, 520.6, 24.0%Acute,
560.5, 25.9%
Chronic, 1086.2, 50.1%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15)
33%
13%
9%
12%
33%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 16
Ipca Laboratories
Stock Performance
60
120
180
Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15
CNX Pharma Ipca
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 50: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
12.0
21.4
8.1 12
.8 15.3
14.0
19.9 21
.8
18.5
12.6 15
.5
12.8
13.0
21.4
16.3
9.2 13
.0
12.9
35.9
12.2 14
.5
-5.8
-5.5
-0.1
28.6
3.0
-10-505
10152025303540
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Ipca Laboratories
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 51: Market share in Indian formulations market
1.51.5
1.41.3
1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.31.3
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Ipca Laboratories
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 52: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 Var. (%) July'15 Var. (%)
Zerodol Sp Pain 8.2 6.1 34.8 7.7 6.6
Zerodol P Pain 6.6 6.1 8.5 5.2 28.3
Hcqs Anti Malarials 4.9 4.5 10.6 6.0 -17.8
Larinate Anti Malarials 4.3 4.2 3.0 3.4 27.7
Rapither-Ab Anti Malarials 3.8 3.9 -2.6 4.0 -4.1
Lariago Anti Malarials 3.1 4.7 -32.7 2.2 42.4
Glycinorm M Anti Diabetic 2.8 2.8 -0.8 3.1 -9.2
Zerodol Pain 2.6 2.4 12.1 2.4 9.1
Folitrax Anti-Neoplastics 2.5 2.3 8.8 2.9 -12.8
Lumerax Anti Malarials 2.4 3.5 -31.6 1.7 41.3
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 53: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15)
Pain 24%
Anti Malarials20%
Cardiac17%
Gastro Intestinal8%
Anti-Infectives7%
Other24%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 54: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 YoY (%) July'15 QoQ (%)
Pain 29.0 25.4 14.2 26.8 8.3
Anti Malarials 22.5 26.4 -14.6 20.7 8.6
Cardiac 18.2 15.8 15.3 17.9 1.6
Gastro Intestinal 8.9 8.4 6.1 10.0 -11.1
Anti-Infectives 7.5 8.1 -7.4 6.6 13.4
Anti Diabetic 5.6 5.4 2.6 5.8 -4.0
Respiratory 4.4 4.7 -5.5 3.2 36.1
Neuro 4.1 3.3 26.0 3.4 19.8
Anti-Neoplastics 4.0 3.2 23.5 4.1 -3.2
Derma 3.1 3.5 -10.2 3.1 1.9
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Aug’15)
Sub-Chronic, 69.4, 5.8%
Acute, 797.2, 66.7%
Chronic, 328.0, 27.5%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15)
36%
15%11%
13%
25%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 17
Biocon
Stock Performance
6080
100120140160180
Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15CNX Pharma Biocon
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 55: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
12.0
21.4
8.1
12.8 15
.3
14.0
19.9 21
.8
18.5
15.5
12.8
13.0
11.4
31.3
12.6
9.8
1.0
7.2
18.8
17.5
11.6
11.7
3.7 4.8 6.
0 7.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35Au
g-14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Biocon
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 56: Market share in Indian formulations market
0.35
0.39
0.37
0.360.36
0.38
0.35
0.36
0.330.34
0.36
0.330.34
0.33
0.34
0.35
0.36
0.37
0.38
0.39
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Biocon
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 57: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 Var. (%) July'15 Var. (%)
Insugen Anti Diabetic 7.2 6.5 11.3 7.5 -3.7
Basalog Anti Diabetic 4.7 3.7 29.8 5.0 -4.2
Erypro Blood Related 2.0 0.9 128.1 2.3 -12.6
Canmab Anti-Neoplastics 1.7 0.4 313.0 1.4 24.3
Insugen R Anti Diabetic 1.5 1.2 28.0 1.6 -6.0
Blisto Mf Anti Diabetic 1.4 2.0 -28.2 1.5 -6.9
Abraxane Anti-Neoplastics 1.0 1.5 -32.2 0.9 7.3
Insugen N Anti Diabetic 0.8 0.8 2.5 0.9 -12.0
Psorid Anti-Neoplastics 0.7 0.3 148.2 0.5 48.9
Metadoze-Ipr Anti Diabetic 0.4 0.7 -43.5 0.4 -4.3
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 58: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15)
Anti Diabetic59%
Anti-Neoplastics
21%
Cardiac7%
Blood Related5%
Derma3%
Other 5%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 59: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 YoY (%) July'15 QoQ (%)
Anti Diabetic 16.9 15.8 6.7 17.8 -5.5
Anti-Neoplastics 5.1 4.0 30.2 4.6 11.0
Cardiac 1.3 3.1 -56.4 1.4 -4.4
Blood Related 2.0 0.9 129.4 2.3 -12.2
Derma 0.7 0.8 -13.9 0.7 3.1
Anti-Infectives 0.7 0.6 8.0 0.7 -1.2
Others 0.2 0.2 -15.5 0.2 -6.7
Vitamins 0.2 0.2 -14.3 0.2 10.0
Gastro Intestinal 0.4 0.1 514.4 0.3 37.7
Hormones 0.1 0.0 95.6 0.0 81.4
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Aug’15)
Sub-Chronic, 23.8, 7.3%
Acute, 68.9, 21.0%
Chronic, 234.9, 71.7%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15)
75%11%
6%
5%
3%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 18
Pfizer
Stock Performance
80110140170200230
Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15
CNX Pharma Pfizer
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research Exhibit 60: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
12.0
21.4
8.1 12
.8 15.3
14.0
19.9 21
.8
18.5
12.6 15
.5
12.8
13.0
3.3
24.2
9.9
34.1
24.8
26.1
22.8
18.0
18.5
11.6
20.2
17.2
19.5
-10-505
10152025303540
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Pfizer
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 61: Market share in Indian formulations market
2.792.91
2.85
3.05
3.243.32
3.032.97 2.99
2.872.93 2.972.95
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Pfizer
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 62: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 Var. (%) July'15 Var. (%)
Corex Respiratory 27.4 18.7 46.6 25.4 8.0
Becosules Vitamins 21.7 22.6 -3.7 20.7 4.9
Magnex Anti-Infectives 12.3 7.8 58.7 13.4 -8.4
Gelusil Mps Gastro Intestinal 11.5 10.2 12.2 12.4 -7.2
Dolonex Pain 10.7 9.8 8.5 11.6 -8.1
Minipress Xl Cardiac 9.2 8.4 9.8 9.7 -5.1
Wysolone Hormones 9.0 7.2 25.7 7.0 28.5
Mucaine Gastro Intestinal 8.9 7.0 27.6 9.0 -0.6
Folvite Blood Related 6.7 4.3 55.7 6.9 -3.0
Dalacin C Anti-Infectives 6.6 6.3 3.9 6.8 -2.9
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 63: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15)
Anti-Infectives17%
Respiratory12%
Vitamins 11%
Gastro Intestinal11%Hormones
9%
Other40%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 64: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 YoY (%) July'15 QoQ (%)
Anti-Infectives 39.4 32.8 20.2 40.3 -2.1
Respiratory 32.6 23.9 36.4 29.8 9.2
Vitamins 27.1 26.9 0.7 26.2 3.4
Gastro Intestinal 25.7 22.2 15.8 26.9 -4.8
Hormones 22.0 19.4 13.8 19.3 14.4
Gynaecological 18.2 15.4 18.2 19.1 -4.9
Cardiac 14.9 13.9 7.0 16.7 -10.6
Pain 15.9 15.0 5.9 17.8 -10.8
Neuro 17.0 12.5 36.2 17.8 -4.4
Vaccines 6.9 3.9 76.1 7.6 -9.0
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Aug’15)
Sub-Chronic, 568.5, 20.5%
Acute, 1780.0, 64.2%
Chronic, 426.1, 15.4%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15)
49%
19%
10%
10%
12%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base l
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 19
Novartis India
Stock Performance
80
130
180
Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15
CNX Pharma Novartis India
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 65: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
12.0
21.4
8.1
12.8 15
.3
14.0
19.9 21
.8
18.5
12.6 15
.5
12.8
13.0
-0.6
13.4
5.8
5.1 6.
7
1.1
2.6 5.
9
0.0
9.3
14.1 16
.0
2.7
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Novartis India
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 66: Market share in Indian formulations market
1.291.33
1.41
1.32
1.381.34
1.26 1.25 1.23 1.241.28
1.351.32
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.5
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Novartis India
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 67: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 Var. (%) July'15 Var. (%)
Galvus Met Anti Diabetic 24.7 15.5 59.3 23.7 4.2
Voveran Pain 14.9 12.9 15.1 16.2 -8.4
Galvus Anti Diabetic 10.3 8.2 25.6 11.2 -7.5
Rabipur (Novartis) Vaccines 7.0 6.0 18.2 7.9 -10.6
Otrivin Respiratory 5.4 4.9 11.2 5.1 6.1
Tegrital Neuro 4.5 4.3 6.1 5.0 -10.0
Voveran Pain 3.1 2.3 33.0 3.2 -3.5
Methergin Gynaecological 3.0 2.7 10.2 2.7 13.0
Regestrone Gynaecological 2.9 3.4 -15.3 3.2 -9.4
Genteal Ophthal 2.4 1.9 22.0 2.7 -11.3
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 68: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15)
Anti Diabetic27%
Pain 19%
Respiratory11%
Vitamins 10%
Gynaecological8%
Other25%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 69: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 YoY (%) July'15 QoQ (%)
Anti Diabetic 35.7 24.3 46.7 35.6 0.5
Pain 21.1 18.7 12.6 22.5 -6.3
Respiratory 8.8 11.0 -19.7 8.2 6.9
Vitamins 10.8 10.4 3.7 10.9 -0.4
Gynaecological 8.3 8.4 -1.4 8.0 3.4
Vaccines 7.1 6.0 18.5 8.0 -11.0
Neuro 7.4 7.3 0.5 7.9 -6.7
Anti-Infectives 4.6 2.6 77.0 5.4 -13.2
Ophthal 3.2 2.6 24.5 3.4 -7.4
Cardiac 1.2 1.3 -11.3 1.1 6.9
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Aug’15)
Sub-Chronic, 173.2, 14.3%
Acute, 588.5, 48.7%
Chronic, 446.4, 37.0%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15)
69%
14%
6%6%5%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 20
Unichem Laboratories
Stock Performance
70100130160
Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15
CNX Pharma Unichem Labs
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 70: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
12.0
21.4
8.1
12.8 15
.3
14.0
19.9 21
.8
18.5
12.6 15
.5
12.8
13.0
13.0
13.8
-15.
9
2.9
3.8 6.6
13.6 16
.7
12.9
12.4
20.5
2.7
11.1
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Unichem Laboratories
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 71: Market share in Indian formulations market
0.90
0.97
0.85
0.95 0.930.98
0.940.97
0.94
1.000.97
0.880.89
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Unichem Laboratories
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 72: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 Var. (%) July'15 Var. (%)
Losar H Cardiac 6.4 5.5 17.3 6.9 -6.3
Ampoxin Anti-Infectives 6.0 7.3 -16.7 5.3 14.2
Losar Cardiac 5.3 4.6 14.8 5.6 -6.9
Unienzyme Gastro Intestinal 4.8 5.1 -6.4 5.9 -18.7
Vizylac Gastro Intestinal 3.2 2.7 20.6 2.8 13.6
Trika Neuro 2.2 1.8 18.3 2.2 0.4
Serta Neuro 1.7 1.3 29.2 1.9 -8.2
Unistar (Unichem) Cardiac 1.5 1.3 10.6 1.5 -2.3
Telsar Cardiac 1.4 1.4 -1.7 1.5 -5.9
Arkamin Cardiac 1.2 0.8 59.4 1.2 4.6
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 73: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15)
Cardiac41%
Anti-Infectives18%
Gastro Intestinal13%
Neuro 13%
Pain 4% Other
11%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 74: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 YoY (%) July'15 QoQ (%)
Cardiac 29.7 26.2 13.3 30.7 -3.2
Anti-Infectives 12.8 14.1 -9.2 11.8 8.8
Gastro Intestinal 9.5 8.9 6.2 10.2 -7.7
Neuro 9.7 6.9 39.6 10.0 -3.0
Pain 3.1 2.6 20.9 3.1 1.6
Anti Diabetic 2.3 2.2 7.6 2.4 -1.8
Respiratory 1.8 2.0 -10.5 1.6 11.2
Vitamins 2.1 1.3 61.0 2.3 -6.4
Derma 1.4 1.0 45.6 1.3 11.8
Gynaecological 0.4 0.4 -0.7 0.4 19.5
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Aug’15)
Sub-Chronic, 51.4, 5.9%
Acute, 323.8, 37.4%
Chronic, 490.4, 56.7%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15)
48%
12%
10%
11%
19%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 21
Indoco Remedies
Stock Performance
80
180
280
Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15
CNX Pharma Indoco
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 75: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
12.0
21.4
8.1
12.8 15
.3
14.0
19.9 21
.8
18.5
12.6 15
.5
12.8
13.0
17.5
34.4
6.1
4.8 8.
6
8.9
18.9
-1.5
22.0
2.4
2.6
1.2
3.4
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Indoco Remedies
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 76: Market share in Indian formulations market
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.7 0.7 0.70.8
0.7
0.7 0.7 0.70.7 0.7
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Indoco Remedies
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 77: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 Var. (%) July'15 Var. (%)
Febrex Plus Respiratory 5.3 6.9 -23.8 5.4 -3.0
Cyclopam Gastro Intestinal 4.1 3.9 5.1 4.5 -8.0
Oxipod Anti-Infectives 3.0 3.1 -2.7 2.6 16.8
Sensodent-K Stomatologicals 2.7 3.0 -11.2 2.8 -3.9
Cital Urology 2.6 2.4 11.6 3.0 -13.8
Atm Anti-Infectives 2.4 2.8 -13.8 2.1 11.8
Sensodent-Kf Stomatologicals 2.0 1.5 30.9 2.0 2.4
Cloben G Derma 2.0 2.1 -7.1 2.0 -1.8
Cyclopam Gastro Intestinal 1.8 1.8 -3.5 2.0 -11.4
Karvol Plus Respiratory 1.5 1.1 28.5 1.0 52.9
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 78: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15) Respiratory
19%
Stomatologicals17%
Anti-Infectives16%
Gastro Intestinal14%
Vitamins 6%
Other28%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 79: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 YoY (%) July'15 QoQ (%)
Respiratory 9.8 11.6 -16.1 8.8 11.2
Stomatologicals 9.2 8.6 7.2 9.4 -2.0
Anti-Infectives 10.4 10.8 -4.0 9.2 12.6
Gastro Intestinal 8.8 9.0 -2.5 9.8 -10.6
Vitamins 3.6 3.1 15.2 3.7 -3.4
Urology 3.0 2.6 15.9 3.4 -11.5
Pain 2.3 2.5 -6.9 2.5 -7.2
Derma 2.6 2.7 -4.3 2.6 -0.6
Ophthal 2.2 1.9 17.4 2.1 3.2
Anti Diabetic 1.8 2.2 -16.2 1.9 -3.9
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Aug’15)
Sub-Chronic, 79.1, 11.8%
Acute, 547.7, 81.7%
Chronic, 43.4, 6.5%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15)
47%
17%
8%
10%
18%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 22
Ajanta Pharma
Stock Performance
50100150200250300350400
Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15
CNX Pharma Ajanta
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 80: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
12.0
21.4
8.1
12.8 15
.3
14.0
19.9 21
.8
18.5
12.6 15
.5
12.8
13.0
27.5
23.2
33.1
15.4
36.0
19.9
14.6 16
.2
10.4
9.5 10
.9
10.0
18.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40Au
g-14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Ajanta Pharma
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 81: Market share in Indian formulations market
0.460.45
0.50
0.53
0.51 0.510.51
0.480.46
0.49 0.48 0.480.49
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
(%)
Ajanta
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 82: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 Var. (%) July'15 Var. (%)Met Xl Cardiac 3.9 4.1 -4.1 3.7 6.2
Melacare Derma 3.4 2.8 24.3 3.6 -5.4
Atorfit Cv Cardiac 3.3 2.5 32.7 2.9 13.0
Feburic Pain 1.3 0.9 35.7 1.1 9.3
Soft Drops Ophthal 1.2 0.8 47.0 1.1 11.6
Rosufit Cv Cardiac 1.1 0.9 22.3 1.1 -1.6
Met Xl Am Cardiac 0.9 0.9 -1.6 0.9 5.1
Peroclin Derma 0.8 0.7 10.6 0.8 5.9
Cinod Cardiac 0.7 0.5 52.8 0.7 4.4
Olopat Ophthal 0.7 0.6 19.9 0.7 -2.4
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 83: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15)
Cardiac32%
Derma24%
Ophthal23%
Vitamins 6%
Pain 5%
Others10%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 84: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Aug'15 Aug'14 YoY (%) July'15 QoQ (%)
Cardiac 13.7 11.7 17.2 13.1 4.8
Derma 8.7 7.5 14.9 8.8 -1.4
Ophthal 9.1 7.3 24.7 9.2 -1.1
Vitamins 2.6 2.0 28.7 2.5 0.6
Pain 2.2 1.9 15.6 2.1 3.0
Gastro Intestinal 1.1 1.3 -16.8 1.1 -5.1
Neuro 0.8 0.9 -6.3 0.9 -7.8
Ophthal 0.6 0.4 31.2 0.6 3.9
Anti-Infectives 0.7 0.3 147.2 0.6 9.9
Respiratory 0.3 0.4 -33.8 0.3 3.4
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Aug’15)
Sub-Chronic, 49.2, 10.9%
Acute, 184.2, 40.8%
Chronic, 217.6, 48.3%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Aug’15)
43%
13%9%
13%
22%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 23
Exhibit 85: One year forward P/E of CNX Pharma vs. Sensex
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Mar
-06
Oct-0
6
May
-07
Dec-
07
Jul-0
8
Feb-
09
Sep-
09
Apr-1
0
Nov
-10
Jun-
11
Jan-
12
Aug-
12
Mar
-13
Oct-1
3
May
-14
Dec-
14
x
CNX Pharma Sensex [
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 86: Two year forward P/E of CNX Pharma Index vs. Sensex
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Mar
-07
Aug-
07
Jan-
08
Jun-
08
Nov
-08
Apr-0
9
Sep-
09
Feb-
10
Jul-1
0
Dec-
10
May
-11
Oct-1
1
Mar
-12
Aug-
12
Jan-
13
Jun-
13
Nov
-13
Apr-1
4
Sep-
14
Feb-
15
Jul-1
5
x
CNX Pharma Sensex
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Healthcare) I-Direct CMP TP Rating M CapCode (|) (|) (| Cr) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E
Ajanta Pharma AJAPHA 1426 1950 Buy 12549.9 36.0 45.9 57.1 39.6 31.0 25.0 147.9 123.1 99.9 50.3 46.9 42.8 37.8 34.8 32.1
Apollo Hospitals APOHOS 1409 1400 Hold 19603.4 23.7 30.9 45.2 59.3 45.6 31.2 26.3 20.9 15.2 9.9 12.4 16.4 10.4 12.4 16.0
Aurobindo Pharma AURPHA 742 865 Buy 43366.6 27.1 33.4 39.3 27.4 22.2 18.9 36.8 30.7 25.0 23.8 23.4 26.4 36.7 31.7 28.4
Biocon BIOCON 437 470 Hold 8740.7 20.4 23.0 28.0 21.4 19.0 15.6 6.3 4.9 3.8 10.4 11.8 13.4 12.5 12.8 14.0
Cadila Healthcare CADHEA 2039 2300 Buy 41744.1 56.0 80.0 104.4 36.4 25.5 19.5 22.4 15.9 12.7 20.7 27.0 30.0 27.0 29.9 30.2
Cipla CIPLA 643 750 Buy 51647.7 14.7 25.3 34.2 43.7 25.4 18.8 24.8 24.5 16.7 17.2 13.8 17.3 13.8 10.9 16.3
Divi's Laboratories DIVLAB 2200 2360 Hold 29796.7 64.2 79.1 98.2 17.5 14.2 11.4 1.8 1.3 0.8 29.4 30.1 31.2 24.4 24.9 25.2
Dr Reddy's Labs DRREDD 3970 4580 Buy 67727.9 130.6 159.9 191.6 30.4 24.8 20.7 13.9 11.0 9.0 17.0 18.5 19.4 19.9 19.0 18.6
Glenmark Pharma GLEPHA 1006 1000 Hold 28379.3 16.5 33.7 47.5 61.1 29.9 21.2 23.8 25.9 18.3 19.3 14.7 22.0 18.1 14.2 23.9
Indoco Remedies INDREM 342 385 Buy 3021.6 9.0 12.6 19.2 36.5 26.1 17.1 17.4 12.4 10.0 16.6 19.8 22.3 12.7 16.0 19.0
Ipca Laboratories IPCLAB 771 660 Hold 9728.7 19.9 25.0 41.5 38.7 30.8 18.6 12.5 19.7 17.9 26.8 11.5 11.0 27.2 11.4 13.0
Jubilant Life Sciences VAMORG 380 340 Hold 6051.1 -3.6 31.9 43.7 -91.5 10.4 7.6 14.1 7.3 6.0 5.8 13.6 16.1 -0.4 19.3 22.6
Lupin LUPIN 1643 1885 Buy 89602.4 53.6 55.7 75.4 37.1 35.7 26.4 28.6 22.6 21.8 35.7 35.1 24.4 26.5 27.1 22.9
Natco Pharma NATPHA 2287 2580 Buy 7967.3 34.6 48.7 67.2 66.2 47.0 34.0 43.7 36.3 27.0 16.1 15.1 18.9 14.1 13.8 16.7
Sun Pharma SUNPHA 892 850 Hold 214635.4 19.8 20.5 32.6 45.1 43.4 27.3 25.5 24.9 17.2 19.9 19.2 24.0 20.8 18.5 23.6
Torrent Pharma TORPHA 1401 1660 Buy 23703.0 44.4 94.4 79.0 31.6 14.8 17.7 14.3 15.0 5.6 28.1 20.1 45.5 34.9 30.2 44.4
Unichem Laboratories UNILAB 286 210 Hold 2596.7 8.3 14.8 21.2 34.4 19.3 13.5 14.2 24.8 12.9 19.0 8.5 17.2 16.7 8.7 14.5
RoNW (%)Company
EPS (|) PE(x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoCE (%)
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 24
RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Add, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Sector view: Over weight compared to index Equal weight compared to index Under weight compared to index Index here refers to BSE 500
Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 25
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