september 2016 ceri commodity report — crude oil · rebalancing the oil market andrew romaniuk it...

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CERI Commodity Report – Crude Oil Editorial Committee: Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan Fogwill About CERI The Canadian Energy Research Institute is an independent, not-for-profit research establishment created through a partnership of industry, academia, and government in 1975. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, objective economic research in energy and related environmental issues. For more information about CERI, please visit our website at www.ceri.ca or contact us at [email protected].

The oil rally has stalled at around $50 a barrel on doubts whether OPEC will reach a deal that will satisfy all of its 14 members. Most members in the Saudi-led cartel need higher prices to repair damage done to their economies according to Reuters.2 Saudi Arabia’s revenues fell by $275 million per day because of the lower price as the country managed to not only keep the market share but also raise it by around 1 percent to account for 13 percent of the world crude supply. Other less wealthy members have been vocal for the last two years about severe budget impacts of the price fall, and as a result some of them seem to revert back to OPEC’s traditional stance of protecting the crude price. This opinion is not shared by all. Iran’s position on production cuts is not yet clear. Iran’s production in September was 3.63 million barrels of oil and they have repeatedly reiterated their goal is to reach pre-sanction levels of 4 million barrels.3 Finally, if agreement is reached, the market is somewhat skeptical about how honest OPEC members will be about their production allocations based on the history of the cartel. Russia too has been an active player on the issue of curbing the oversupply. In Doha it had a key role in helping OPEC to reach a consensus decision, but the attempts failed owing to Iran’s position. Just recently, after the OPEC announcement, the President of Russia confirmed in Istanbul his readiness to contribute to the restoration of the market balance. In spite of contradictory messages, Secretary General of OPEC, Mohammad Barkindo, dismissed fears that Russia will derail the highly anticipated plan to limit oil production. Indeed, after Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin implied that the oil company (which accounts for 40 percent of Russia oil production) will not decrease its output, an official clarification promptly followed from Rosneft’s press-center stating that there can be no discrepancy between the President of Russia and the company’s positions. On October 20, Rosneft confirmed it will fulfill any instructions by the government4 (freeze or cut). Lukoil, the second-largest producer in Russia, also showed readiness to follow and suggested that “Russian oil companies will unify behind their government if talks with OPEC result in an agreement to

Supply and Demand, Prices and Costs: Rebalancing the Oil Market Andrew Romaniuk It has been almost two and a half years since the price of oil plummeted bringing changes and enormous attention to the industry and its future. After the crash in 2014, the market has been waiting to reach a new equilibrium. Rebalancing was expected in 2015 and 2016, and now has been moved further to 2017. Some may suggest that there is some sort of balance in the market already: for the last 6 months, since April, the WTI price stabilized around $45 per barrel, and has not gone lower than $40/bbl, except for one day in August. The global crude oil market today is still in the supply overhang and demand growth has not materialized as expected in the low price environment. In September “OPEC agreed to reduce its oil output to 32.5-33 million bpd from the current production levels of around 33.24 million bpd” (~200-700 thousand bpd).1 This has not happened since prices started to fall in 2014 because OPEC refused to take on their traditional role of protecting the price and instead concentrated on protecting and expanding their global market share. This announcement was just a first step in the process. In their meeting scheduled for November 2016, the cartel has to finalize critical details such as individual member’s allocation baseline and implementation date. Already, Iran, Libya and Nigeria – all aiming to raise output – are said to be exempt from cuts, which suggests that bigger cuts would be made by others, such as Saudi Arabia, to meet a new target. The extent of any cooperation from non-OPEC producers such as Russia is still to be determined.

September 2016

CERI Commodity Report — Crude Oil

CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil

limit output, including cuts”.5 Another hint that Russia will follow through is its plan to send officials to the high level committee at the October 29 meeting of OPEC to discuss how to implement its output accord. The big question is – if the agreement is reached and the price goes up in the short-term, will it sustain in the medium term with more upstream producers tempted to resume production, specifically US tight oil producers? "The Americans want it most ($50 per barrel) as the shale oil projects become profitable with such a price. And $60 (per barrel) will result in more shale oil projects," according to Reuters.6 With the removal of the US export ban, it is possible that shale oil supply cost might have become “the lid” on the oil price or, in other words, the marginal cost, at least in the medium term. WTI break-even prices for tight oil have been steadily decreasing since 2011. In 2015, the main plays had an average supply cost of less than $50 per barrel, with the exception of Permian Midland.7 Ryan Lance, the CEO of ConocoPhillips, suggested that new wells in parts of the Permian, Bakken and Eagleford areas are now profitable at $40 a barrel8 (see Figure 1). Figure 1: WTI Breakeven Prices for US Shale Oil Plays

Source: Rystad Energy.

“The world should get used to oil prices between $50 and $60 a barrel as falling costs in America’s shale fields counteract OPEC’s renewed commitment to supply management”, concluded Bloomberg.9 Clash at World Energy Congress Over Oil Future The World Energy Congress held on October 9-13, 2016, showed a clash of opinions of highly ranked officials and CEOs over the energy future. The World Energy Council and other industries’ pro-renewable and less-carbon-energy-supply stakeholders gave a clear message that

the world needs to move away from fossil fuels much faster than it is doing today. At the same time, many other high-level speakers from government and business stressed that the world needs more oil and gas.10 Several presidents of countries and CEOs of oil majors pledged to continue to invest in oil and gas developments. Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, the world’s biggest oil producer, said his company would invest $300 billion over the next ten years in new oil and gas projects. Bod Dudley, CEO of BP, said “We need to keep investing for future growth and that means making big choices to sanction big projects”. OPEC called on policymakers not to discriminate against oil. The Secretary General of the cartel suggested that oil should be seen as a “fuel of choice; we should not use the Paris Agreement to discriminate against any energy source”.11 The oil industry seems to embrace lowering carbon emissions and slowly changing their portfolio investing in cleaner-burning natural gas and GTL. Saudi Aramco said that “business as usual” is not an option – not because of the climate, but because “existing oil fields are depleting fast” and “it is increasingly difficult to find new oil”. Maarten Wetselaar from Shell said that “we should go after coal first; to replace coal will require a lot of gas and oil”. Dudley of BP added that even if renewables were to grow faster than any fuel has done (in history), they are unlikely to contribute more than 15 percent of the total energy mix by 2035. International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol did not agree. He said that the IEA is increasing its growth projections for renewable energy and that coal and oil should be discouraged.12 He then agreed however that “a world without fossil fuels is not yet in sight” and added that natural gas will continue to play an important role in even our most stringent scenarios. Indeed, many major forecasts converge on what oil companies have been reiterating all along – the world will continue to need more oil. OPEC demand projections for oil in 2040 is 100.6 million barrels per day (MMbpd)13 (not including NGLs which in 2015 accounted for 6.8 MMbpd); the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) – 121 MMbpd;14 and the IEA – 117.1 MMbpd (for current policy scenario) and 103.5 MMbpd (for new policy scenario) with current global demand sitting around 97 MMbpd.


For the last 4 years the world oil demand has increased by 6.3 percent, similar to the growth rate of the world population. If IEA future projections hold, demand will increase by an additional 1.3 percent in 2017, adding 1.2 MMbpd to the world economy (Figure 2). At the same time there are indications of diminishing oil oversupply. Since the beginning of the year crude stock change has fallen from 1.13 to 0.14 MMbpd in September – a much different situation than in 2015 with more than 1.5 MMbpd of oil supply overhang. Figure 2: World Crude Supply and Demand, Stocks

Source: IEA In light of demand growth projections and the possibility of a production freeze or cuts (at least from OPEC), there is a chance that 2017 may face a supply shortage to meet the demand growth. If OPEC freezes production in 2017 to the levels of September while non-OPEC countries proceed with their plans – basically adding another 0.43 MMbpd, only 100 thousand barrels per day (mbpd) are expected to be on the market above demand. If OPEC cuts production by 200 or 700 mbpd as it suggested and Russia joins the effort with a proportional cut, a shortage of 210 to up to 870 mbpd may be expected. Canadian Market – Growth for 2017? Canadian crude oil supply has increased by 15 percent since 2012, and is estimated to rise in 2017. In fact, it may reach another peak of 4.55-4.58 MMbpd compared to an estimated 4.32 MMbpd for 2016 adding an additional 230-260 thousand barrels per day according to NEB and EIA forecasts.

There are at least 9 oil sands projects that can potentially be commissioned in 2017 and provide 440 thousand barrels per day. Most operators are proceeding with construction with at least one already ready for commissioning and waiting for better bitumen prices. Hebron offshore projects in the East is scheduled to produce first oil in late 2017, and many wells, which have already been drilled in Canada, can be put on stream in 2017. Canadian crude production costs are comparative to the worlds’ benchmarks, except for oil sands mining projects. Alberta and Saskatchewan horizontal conventional wells and producing East offshore assets are close to the world’s average cost of CAD $37 per barrel for 2015. Oil sands SAGD costs are almost equal to the average US tight oil cost, and oil sands mining is $14 more per barrel (Figure 3). Figure 3: Crude Oil Supply Costs, 2015 ($CAD)

Sources: CERI, Rystad Energy *Tight oil - average of US Bakken, Eagle Ford, Permian Delaware, Permian Midland, Niobrara plays ** Offshore – Terra Nova, Hibernia, White Rose and Amethyst ***Canadian supply costs are field gate costs and do not include blending and transportation. Canadian demand on the other hand has been flat for the last two years at 2.41 MMbpd and is expected to decline to 2.4 for 2016 and 2.38 MMbpd for 2017 according to the IEA. With expected supply growth, flat and declining oil demand domestically and in the US, current export pipeline capacity of 4 MMbpd will need to be expanded in order to reach new markets, where demand for crude is still growing.


Endnotes 1IEA. Oil Market Report, October 2016 2Reuters. “Oil Settles up; extends gains as API reports US crude draw”. October 19, 2016. http://in.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idINKBN12I01M. Accessed on October 20, 2016. 3IEA. Oil Market Report, October 2016. 4http://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-eurasia-easteurope-rosneft-crud-idUSKCN12K199?mod=related&channelName=GCA-Commodities 5http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-11/russia-oil-producers-would-cut-if-there-s-opec-deal-lukoil-says 6http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-russia-sechin-idUSKCN12B0J1 7OPEC World Oil Outlook, 2015, p. 156 8http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-18/oil-seen-stuck-in-50-to-60-range-as-shale-blunts-opec-action 9ibid. 10http://energypost.eu/visions-clash-world-energy-congress-istanbul/ 11ibid 12http://www.theenergycollective.com/energy-post/2390477/interview-iea-chief-fatih-birol-we-are-once-again-increasing-our-expectations-for-renewables 13OPEC World Energy Outlook 2015 14US EIA International Energy Outlook 2016

http://in.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idINKBN12I01M

http://in.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idINKBN12I01M

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-eurasia-easteurope-rosneft-crud-idUSKCN12K199?mod=related&channelName=GCA-Commodities



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-11/russia-oil-producers-would-cut-if-there-s-opec-deal-lukoil-says



http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-russia-sechin-idUSKCN12B0J1

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-russia-sechin-idUSKCN12B0J1

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-18/oil-seen-stuck-in-50-to-60-range-as-shale-blunts-opec-action



http://energypost.eu/visions-clash-world-energy-congress-istanbul/

http://energypost.eu/visions-clash-world-energy-congress-istanbul/

http://www.theenergycollective.com/energy-post/2390477/interview-iea-chief-fatih-birol-we-are-once-again-increasing-our-expectations-for-renewables




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World Supply and Demand Balance (MMbpd)

OPEC Crude Oil Production (MMbpd)

WTI Price Projections ($US/barrel)

2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17

World Demand 93.2 95.0 96.3 97.5 94.0 94.5 96.0 95.6 95.5 95.8 96.8 97.0 96.8 96.9 98.1 98.2

OECD 45.8 46.4 46.5 46.5 46.6 45.6 46.9 46.4 46.7 46.0 46.7 46.5 46.7 46.0 46.8 46.5

non-OECD 47.4 48.7 49.8 51.0 47.4 48.9 49.2 49.2 48.8 49.8 50.1 50.5 50.0 50.9 51.3 51.7

World Supply 93.7 96.6 96.5 97.0 95.3 96.5 97.2 97.3 96.6 96.0 97.0 96.5 96.4 97.0 97.5 97.3

Non-OPEC 56.1 57.6 56.6 57.0 57.2 57.4 57.7 57.9 57.0 56.1 56.6 56.8 56.6 57.0 57.4 57.2

OPEC NGLs 6.5 6.8 6.9 7.0 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.1

OPEC Crude 27.7 28.3 28.7 28.6 31.4 32.4 32.7 32.6 32.8 33.0 33.5 32.7 32.8 33.0 33.0 33.0

Supply - Demand1 0.5 1.6 0.2 -0.5 1.3 2.0 1.2 1.8 1.1 0.1 0.3 -0.5 -0.4 0.1 -0.6 -0.9

OECD

Stocks (MMbbls) 2712 2815 2905 2984 3015 3046 3052 3066 3045 3027 3030 3005

Days Cover 58 62 62 64 65 66 65 66 65 66 65 65

2014 2015 2016 2017 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17

High Price Case 53.90 57.75 53.90 55.00 57.20 58.30 60.50

Reference Case 93.28 48.71 43.20 52.50 42.03 33.41 45.52 44.88 49.00 50.00 52.00 53.00 55.00

Low Price Case 41.65 44.63 41.65 42.50 44.20 45.05 46.75

Sustainable

Capacity Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16

Saudi Arabia 12.20 10.65 10.60 10.58 1.55 1.60 1.62

Iran 3.70 3.63 3.64 3.67 0.07 0.06 0.03

UAE 2.95 3.08 3.09 3.10 -0.13 -0.14 -0.15

Kuwait 2.87 2.87 2.91 2.90 0.00 -0.04 -0.03

Qatar 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.64 0.01 0.02 0.03

Angola 1.81 1.76 1.76 1.74 0.05 0.05 0.07

Nigeria 1.85 1.39 1.43 1.45 0.46 0.42 0.40

Libya 0.40 0.30 0.28 0.35 0.10 0.12 0.05

Algeria 1.12 1.11 1.11 1.12 0.01 0.01 0.00

Ecuador 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00

Venezuela 2.35 2.15 2.14 2.13 0.20 0.21 0.22

Indonesia 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.00 0.00 0.00

Gabon 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.00 0.01 0.01

OPEC. Excl. Iraq 31.43 29.11 29.11 29.18 2.32 2.32 2.25

Iraq1 4.40 4.32 4.37 4.46 0.08 0.03 -0.06

Total OPEC 35.60 33.43 33.48 33.64 2.17 2.12 1.96

Production Spare Capacity vs Production


Data Appendix


A1: Historic Light Sweet Crude Futures Prices ($US per barrel)

A2: Historic Crude Product Futures Prices (¢US per gallon)

Notes (Tables A1 and A2): Prices are listed by contract month. Close: final contract close on the last day of trading. Last 3 Day Average Close: simple average con-

tract close on last three days of trading. Average When Near Month: simple average closing price on trading days when contract was near month. 12-Month Strip

Average: simple average of daily near 12-month contract closing prices in a given contract month. Spread: difference between one-month and two-month forward

prices in a given period. Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

NYMEX Light Sweet Crude

Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread

Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.)

2013 96.82 97.37 97.01 97.45 -0.12

2014 96.53 96.37 96.73 87.56 0.54

2015 49.68 49.80 51.41 53.75 -0.78

3Q 2015 50.39 50.63 53.14 54.10 -0.42

4Q 2015 43.92 44.17 44.89 47.38 -0.70

1Q 2016 30.92 31.19 34.29 38.10 -1.44

2Q 2016 43.94 43.15 40.39 43.31 -1.24

3Q 2016 46.95 47.20 46.46 48.68 -0.65

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -6.8% -6.8% -12.6% -10.0%

Oct-15 45.83 45.73 44.47 46.73 -0.57

Nov-15 45.55 46.23 46.32 48.55 -0.51

Dec-15 40.39 40.56 43.88 46.86 -1.03

Jan-16 34.74 34.81 38.61 42.22 -1.39

Feb-16 26.55 28.14 33.74 36.96 -1.10

Mar-16 31.48 30.63 30.52 35.13 -1.83

Apr-16 41.45 40.27 36.44 40.15 -1.69

May-16 42.63 41.16 39.32 42.33 -1.30

Jun-16 47.75 48.03 45.43 47.45 -0.72

Jul-16 48.85 48.73 49.03 50.88 -0.55

Aug-16 44.94 44.94 46.78 49.09 -0.71

Sep-16 47.05 47.93 43.57 46.05 -0.70

Oct-16 43.44 43.26 45.39 47.67 -0.62

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -5.2% -5.4% 2.1% 2.0%

NYMEX Unleaded Gasoline NYMEX Heating Oil

Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread

Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.) Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.)

2013 284.3 285.6 284.5 274.2 0.5 298.2 299.0 298.9 304.9 -0.5

2014 270.6 272.8 271.8 260.8 1.7 285.9 287.7 286.4 290.2 1.4

2015 168.8 166.0 166.4 157.8 0.5 174.8 171.9 173.2 179.6 0.5

3Q 2015 185.7 180.9 186.1 156.3 8.6 171.5 167.9 170.0 179.2 -1.1

4Q 2015 138.4 137.2 135.5 127.8 1.9 145.0 144.9 148.7 159.5 -2.3

1Q 2016 114.0 112.5 111.5 125.9 -9.2 107.7 106.9 107.4 117.8 -2.0

2Q 2016 154.5 155.4 148.9 142.9 -2.1 135.4 135.1 128.8 137.4 -1.0

3Q 2016 141.1 142.3 145.0 130.1 2.1 139.0 141.1 143.3 153.3 -1.8

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -24.0% -21.3% -22.1% -16.8% -18.9% -16.0% -15.7% -14.5%

Oct-15 138.9 136.7 138.2 127.7 1.8 151.3 149.6 153.9 164.3 -2.1

Nov-15 140.5 136.8 134.9 128.3 1.8 149.9 148.6 149.9 161.4 -2.6

Dec-15 135.9 138.2 133.5 127.3 2.1 133.7 136.4 142.4 152.6 -2.3

Jan-16 126.7 125.8 125.4 137.4 -1.0 110.1 110.3 117.9 129.9 -3.1

Feb-16 110.3 107.6 109.4 123.6 -2.6 105.5 103.7 100.1 109.8 -1.7

Mar-16 105.0 104.1 99.5 116.7 -24.1 107.6 106.6 104.3 113.9 -1.3

Apr-16 143.6 145.3 139.9 137.4 -4.3 118.5 116.7 119.3 128.5 -1.2

May-16 158.5 158.8 148.8 142.0 -1.5 137.8 138.8 124.9 133.7 -1.0

Jun-16 161.5 162.2 158.1 149.4 -0.7 149.8 149.8 142.1 150.1 -0.7

Jul-16 150.1 151.2 155.4 140.3 -0.9 148.5 149.7 150.1 158.6 -0.9

Aug-16 132.1 131.6 138.0 124.5 -0.6 127.6 128.0 138.5 149.8 -2.5

Sep-16 141.2 144.2 141.6 125.6 7.9 141.0 145.6 141.5 151.4 -1.9

Oct-16 148.7 147.7 139.2 127.5 2.7 152.8 151.0 143.3 152.6 -1.4

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 7.1% 8.1% 0.7% -0.1% 1.0% 0.9% -6.9% -7.1%


A3: World Crude Oil Contract Prices (FOB, $US per barrel)

A4: North American Posted Crude Prices (FOB, $US per barrel)

Notes: 1. ANS is Delivered price on US West Coast. 2. Edmonton Light Sweet prices are discontinued as of May 1, 2014 and replaced by the Canadian Light Crude

blend which is traded daily on the Net Energy Index. 3. Hardisty Heavy. Posted prices are based on price at the end of each month. Sources: Oil & Gas Journal;

Natural Resources Canada.

Notes: 1. Urals is Delivered price at Mediterranean. Contract prices are based on prices at the end of each month. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

Saudi U.A.E. Oman U.K. Norway Russia Venez. Kuwait Ecuador Mexico Nigeria Indon.

Arab Lgt Dubai Oman Brent Ekofisk Urals1 T.J. Light Blend Oriente Isthmus Bonny Lgt Minas

2013 106.60 105.51 105.57 108.69 109.89 108.05 96.71 105.10 97.77 105.16 111.41 107.32

2014 97.07 96.61 96.94 99.00 99.78 98.01 86.87 95.21 87.25 93.58 100.77 98.63

2015 49.87 50.96 51.24 52.44 53.20 51.94 41.17 48.15 44.97 51.14 52.99 49.24

3Q 2015 49.01 49.80 49.92 50.29 50.93 49.75 37.94 47.70 42.85 49.96 50.62 45.46

4Q 2015 39.90 40.74 40.93 43.67 44.38 42.50 30.59 37.83 36.16 42.62 44.04 38.82

1Q 2016 29.95 30.47 31.44 33.91 34.39 32.30 22.67 27.89 26.73 31.39 33.72 31.64

2Q 2016 42.66 43.18 43.47 45.53 46.13 43.86 33.78 40.81 40.34 43.47 45.61 46.24

3Q 2016 43.10 43.30 44.30 45.85 45.80 44.10 36.85 41.49 40.93 44.61 46.47 41.13

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -12.1% -13.1% -11.2% -8.8% -10.1% -11.4% -2.9% -13.0% -4.5% -10.7% -8.2% -9.5%

Sep-15 45.56 45.38 45.65 47.61 48.24 47.19 34.13 43.96 41.03 47.71 48.01 42.05

Oct-15 45.37 45.84 46.07 48.56 49.23 47.49 35.48 43.61 39.91 46.90 49.16 42.13

Nov-15 40.64 41.79 42.10 44.30 45.10 43.05 31.87 38.39 36.40 43.29 44.81 40.79

Dec-15 33.70 34.59 34.61 38.16 38.80 36.97 24.42 31.49 32.18 37.68 38.16 33.53

Jan-16 26.35 26.81 27.48 30.75 31.45 29.15 20.80 23.92 24.03 30.03 30.40 30.80

Feb-16 28.77 29.44 30.37 32.46 32.86 30.87 21.38 26.77 24.70 28.68 32.24 29.49

Mar-16 34.74 35.15 36.46 38.51 38.86 36.87 25.83 32.99 31.45 35.45 38.53 34.62

Apr-16 38.22 39.00 39.43 41.48 42.15 39.89 28.84 36.33 35.04 38.14 41.51 38.52

May-16 43.48 44.29 44.37 46.83 47.70 45.08 34.28 41.60 41.96 44.76 46.85 48.64

Jun-16 46.28 46.25 46.61 48.28 48.54 46.60 38.22 44.50 44.03 47.51 48.48 51.56

Jul-16 43.14 42.64 43.45 45.00 44.99 43.76 36.71 41.37 40.72 45.07 45.30 41.84

Aug-16 43.47 43.58 44.02 45.85 45.79 44.06 36.46 41.88 40.84 44.22 46.35 41.26

Sep-16 42.70 43.67 45.44 46.69 46.63 44.48 37.38 41.22 41.22 44.55 47.77 40.28

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -6.3% -3.8% -0.5% -1.9% -3.3% -5.7% 9.5% -6.2% 0.5% -6.6% -0.5% -4.2%

United States Canada Light vs. Heavy

ANS1 Lost Hills Kern R. WTI WTS GCS

Okla.

Sw.

Kans.

Sw.

Mich.

So.

Wyo.

Sw.

CDN

Sweet2 HH3

2013 100.20 106.62 99.05 94.46 89.46 87.65 94.46 93.48 86.46 90.27 90.13 76.52

2014 94.79 94.13 87.39 88.44 83.44 82.19 88.44 85.77 80.44 83.52 82.59 73.85

2015 51.64 50.91 42.28 45.63 40.63 39.38 45.63 44.40 37.63 42.34 44.83 35.71

3Q 2015 57.69 47.85 40.37 42.58 37.58 36.33 42.58 41.50 34.58 39.26 41.85 33.90

4Q 2015 39.88 41.77 34.08 38.25 33.25 32.00 38.25 37.25 30.25 35.94 38.97 27.77

1Q 2016 34.14 33.54 27.08 31.67 26.67 25.42 31.67 30.75 23.67 30.20 28.28 18.11

2Q 2016 30.42 45.46 38.30 44.25 39.25 38.00 44.25 43.17 36.25 43.88 42.69 32.65

3Q 2016 30.15 46.40 36.65 42.33 37.33 36.08 42.33 41.33 34.33 42.08 40.62 30.50

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -47.7% -3.0% -9.2% -0.6% -0.7% -0.7% -0.6% -0.4% -0.7% 7.2% -2.9% -10.0%

Sep-15 57.76 45.95 38.70 42.25 37.25 36.00 42.25 41.25 34.25 39.95 42.49 31.85

Oct-15 41.44 47.09 38.85 43.00 38.00 36.75 43.00 42.00 35.00 40.84 43.88 31.40

Nov-15 40.48 42.46 33.85 38.25 33.25 32.00 38.25 37.25 30.25 35.96 39.83 28.25

Dec-15 37.72 35.76 29.55 33.50 28.50 27.25 33.50 32.50 25.50 31.01 33.41 23.80

Jan-16 37.72 31.62 24.85 30.00 25.00 23.75 30.00 29.00 22.00 27.87 30.49 13.73

Feb-16 41.77 31.78 25.15 29.25 24.25 23.00 29.25 28.25 21.25 27.03 27.94 22.19

Mar-16 22.94 37.21 31.25 35.75 30.75 29.50 35.75 35.00 27.75 35.71 26.19 18.50

Apr-16 36.36 44.67 37.65 42.50 37.50 36.25 42.50 41.50 34.50 42.17 36.83 27.16

May-16 30.62 46.83 40.25 45.75 40.75 39.50 45.75 44.75 37.75 45.58 44.58 34.63

Jun-16 24.29 44.89 37.00 44.50 39.50 38.25 44.50 43.25 36.50 43.89 46.61 36.13

Jul-16 22.77 40.65 32.30 38.00 33.00 31.75 38.00 37.00 30.00 37.85 41.01 30.55

Aug-16 30.62 49.35 38.60 44.00 39.00 37.75 44.00 43.25 36.00 43.89 41.35 30.34

Sep-16 37.05 49.20 39.05 45.00 40.00 38.75 45.00 43.75 37.00 44.49 39.51 30.62

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -35.9% 7.1% 0.9% 6.5% 7.4% 7.6% 6.5% 6.1% 8.0% 11.4% -7.0% -3.9%


A5: Crude Oil Quality Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel)

A6: Crude Oil Spot Prices and Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel)

Notes: 1. OPEC-Reference Basket is average price of seven crude streams: Algeria Saharan Blend, Dubai Fateh, Indonesia Minas, Mexico Isthmus, Nigeria Bonny

Light, Saudi Arabia Light and Venezuela Tia Juana Light. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

Notes: 1. Edmonton Light Sweet prices are discontinued as of May 1, 2014 and replaced by the Canadian Light Crude blend which is traded daily on the Net Energy Index. 2. Hardisty Heavy. Based on contract prices at the end of each month. Sources: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report: Oil & Gas Journal; Natural Resources Canada.

Light vs. Heavy Sweet vs. Sour

Arab Lt Arab Hv Diff. Isthmus Maya Diff.

CDN

Sweet2 HH2 Diff. GCS WTS Diff.

2013 106.60 103.96 2.64 105.16 97.74 7.42 90.13 76.52 13.61 87.65 89.46 -1.81

2014 97.07 93.57 3.50 93.58 85.88 7.69 82.59 73.85 8.74 82.19 83.44 -1.25

2015 49.87 47.02 2.85 51.14 44.02 7.12 44.83 35.71 9.13 39.38 40.63 -1.25

3Q 2015 49.01 47.25 1.76 49.96 43.53 6.44 41.85 33.90 7.95 36.33 37.58 -1.25

4Q 2015 39.90 36.72 3.18 42.62 34.41 8.21 38.97 27.77 11.21 32.00 33.25 -1.25

1Q 2016 29.95 27.14 2.82 31.39 26.09 5.30 28.28 18.11 10.17 25.42 26.67 -1.25

2Q 2016 42.66 40.10 2.56 43.47 37.49 5.98 42.69 32.65 10.04 38.00 39.25 -1.25

3Q 2016 43.10 40.54 2.56 44.61 40.64 3.98 40.62 30.50 10.12 36.08 37.33 -1.25

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -12.1% -14.2% -10.7% -6.6% -2.9% -10.0% -0.7% -0.7%

Sep-15 45.56 43.37 2.19 47.71 39.50 8.21 42.49 31.85 10.64 36.00 37.25 -1.25

Oct-15 45.37 43.01 2.36 46.90 39.14 7.76 43.88 31.40 12.48 36.75 38.00 -1.25

Nov-15 40.64 37.00 3.64 43.29 35.36 7.93 39.83 28.25 11.58 32.00 33.25 -1.25

Dec-15 33.70 30.15 3.55 37.68 28.74 8.94 33.41 23.80 9.61 27.25 28.50 -1.25

Jan-16 26.35 22.50 3.85 30.03 24.21 5.82 30.49 13.73 16.76 23.75 25.00 -1.25

Feb-16 28.77 26.15 2.62 28.68 24.84 3.84 27.94 22.19 5.75 23.00 24.25 -1.25

Mar-16 34.74 32.76 1.98 35.45 29.22 6.23 26.19 18.50 7.69 29.50 30.75 -1.25

Apr-16 38.22 35.92 2.30 38.14 30.95 7.19 36.83 27.16 9.67 36.25 37.50 -1.25

May-16 43.48 40.69 2.79 44.76 39.08 5.68 44.58 34.63 9.95 39.50 40.75 -1.25

Jun-16 46.28 43.68 2.60 47.51 42.43 5.08 46.61 36.13 10.48 38.25 39.50 -1.25

Jul-16 43.14 40.40 2.74 45.07 40.43 4.64 41.01 30.55 10.47 31.75 33.00 -1.25

Aug-16 43.47 41.00 2.47 44.22 40.55 3.67 41.35 30.34 11.01 37.75 39.00 -1.25

Sep-16 42.70 40.22 2.48 44.55 40.93 3.62 39.51 30.62 8.89 38.75 40.00 -1.25

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -6.3% -7.3% -6.6% 3.6% -7.0% -3.9% 7.6% 7.4%

Spot Prices Differentials

WTI Brent Dubai Urals Basket1 WTI-Brent WTI-Dubai WTI-Urals WTI-Basket

2013 98.03 108.68 105.44 108.39 105.94 -11.87 -8.63 -11.58 -9.12

2014 93.28 98.94 96.52 97.97 96.19 -2.41 0.01 -1.44 0.34

2015 48.71 52.37 50.84 51.50 49.52 -2.69 -1.16 -1.82 0.16

3Q 2015 46.47 50.44 50.01 49.75 48.16 -0.05 0.38 0.64 2.23

4Q 2015 42.03 43.71 40.71 42.30 39.72 0.21 3.21 1.62 4.20

1Q 2016 33.41 33.95 30.59 32.34 29.96 -3.03 0.33 -1.42 0.97

2Q 2016 45.52 45.54 43.23 43.86 42.30 -1.60 0.71 0.08 1.64

3Q 2016 44.88 45.80 43.28 44.05 42.89 1.15 3.67 2.90 4.06

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -3.4% -9.2% -13.5% -11.5% -10.9%

Sep-15 45.45 47.61 45.45 46.98 44.83 -1.78 0.38 -1.15 1.00

Oct-15 46.20 48.51 45.92 47.31 45.02 -2.96 -0.37 -1.76 0.53

Nov-15 42.75 44.26 41.76 42.37 40.50 -3.87 -1.37 -1.98 -0.11

Dec-15 37.24 38.13 34.55 36.98 33.64 -3.39 0.19 -2.24 1.10

Jan-16 31.57 30.75 26.81 29.15 26.50 -4.20 -0.26 -2.60 0.05

Feb-16 30.38 32.46 29.33 30.87 28.72 -0.98 2.15 0.61 2.76

Mar-16 37.76 38.49 35.12 36.85 34.65 2.96 6.33 4.60 6.80

Apr-16 40.95 41.48 39.00 39.89 37.86 1.15 3.63 2.74 4.77

May-16 46.72 46.79 44.30 45.01 43.21 0.96 3.45 2.74 4.54

Jun-16 48.74 48.28 46.25 46.60 45.84 0.57 2.60 2.25 3.01

Jul-16 44.69 45.00 42.54 43.76 42.68 -0.06 2.40 1.18 2.26

Aug-16 44.75 45.68 43.67 43.90 43.10 1.37 3.38 3.15 3.95

Sep-16 45.20 46.69 43.58 44.48 42.89 -3.25 -0.14 -1.04 0.55

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.6% -1.9% -4.1% -5.3% -4.3%


A7: World Petroleum Product Spot Prices ($US per barrel)

A8: Product Spot Prices in Selected American Cities (¢US per gallon)

Notes: 1. Reformulated regular unleaded gasoline. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status

Report.

Notes: 1. Regular unleaded gasoline. 2. Waterborne 3. High Sulfur (3.5-4.0%) Residual Fuel Oil. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

US Gulf Coast, Pipeline Rotterdam, Barges Singapore, Cargoes

Gasoline1 No. 6 3%2 Jet/Ker. Gasoline1 Gasoil Resid.3 Gasoline1 Gasoil Resid.3

2013 114.66 92.96 122.67 116.69 123.40 91.47 118.98 123.24 96.39

2014 106.68 82.82 113.30 108.16 112.63 81.04 110.75 112.53 87.22

2015 66.94 40.73 63.86 67.02 65.48 37.85 69.09 64.47 44.55

3Q 2015 69.59 38.07 60.55 70.31 63.48 35.94 69.27 60.75 41.10

4Q 2015 52.06 29.74 53.13 54.42 53.23 26.49 59.34 54.36 33.25

1Q 2016 44.62 21.14 41.66 43.78 40.63 18.71 49.31 40.27 24.87

2Q 2016 61.70 31.03 53.43 58.37 54.51 29.31 57.58 53.76 33.89

3Q 2016 59.62 34.88 54.44 54.76 54.10 34.39 54.72 54.11 37.88

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -14.3% -8.4% -10.1% -22.1% -14.8% -4.3% -21.0% -10.9% -7.8%

Sep-15 56.97 34.42 58.29 60.82 60.98 31.89 65.26 59.45 36.92

Oct-15 54.57 34.66 58.40 56.78 58.97 32.12 63.46 59.09 37.30

Nov-15 52.06 31.77 55.75 56.64 55.44 27.75 58.92 57.41 35.26

Dec-15 49.54 23.08 45.61 49.73 44.98 19.33 55.60 46.86 27.38

Jan-16 42.89 19.09 38.96 44.86 37.05 15.54 50.33 36.16 23.14

Feb-16 39.22 20.41 40.67 40.93 39.12 18.46 44.33 38.51 23.65

Mar-16 51.03 23.58 44.88 45.60 45.55 21.97 52.68 45.52 27.51

Apr-16 58.77 25.95 47.55 55.51 48.79 24.39 54.49 48.08 29.65

May-16 62.10 31.85 54.36 58.93 55.91 30.18 59.14 54.86 34.58

Jun-16 64.11 35.11 58.16 60.60 58.69 33.23 59.05 58.14 37.27

Jul-16 58.66 33.87 52.82 52.73 53.17 33.19 51.87 54.27 37.06

Aug-16 61.25 34.40 54.80 54.45 53.88 33.88 54.18 53.47 37.21

Sep-16 58.73 36.36 55.58 57.00 55.21 36.04 58.00 54.62 39.35

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.1% 5.6% -4.6% -6.3% -9.5% 13.0% -11.1% -8.1% 6.6%

NY Harbor US Gulf Los Angeles

Gasoline1 No. 2 H.O. Distill. Gasoline1 Jet Fuel Distill. Gasoline1 Distill.

2013 281.29 292.59 301.40 269.60 292.34 296.78 292.19 301.28

2014 261.23 269.64 280.48 248.81 269.65 271.08 266.81 278.58

2015 161.18 154.68 166.33 155.30 152.55 157.92 194.58 166.03

3Q 2015 164.67 145.57 157.20 159.57 144.43 151.03 215.10 157.90

4Q 2015 135.00 125.23 134.10 124.47 126.63 128.60 160.77 140.13

1Q 2016 112.67 101.43 106.83 105.70 99.07 102.80 127.27 108.63

2Q 2016 150.67 132.00 138.70 141.93 127.60 134.57 157.43 143.37

3Q 2016 139.03 132.27 139.57 139.33 129.53 137.40 145.07 141.83

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -15.6% -9.1% -11.2% -12.7% -10.3% -9.0% -32.6% -10.2%

Sep-15 146.00 142.30 151.60 135.30 139.50 144.40 171.50 150.20

Oct-15 139.70 140.40 147.20 130.70 139.10 141.80 166.90 155.30

Nov-15 137.70 131.60 141.30 124.60 132.60 135.10 150.70 143.80

Dec-15 127.60 103.70 113.80 118.10 108.20 108.90 164.70 121.30

Jan-16 112.10 93.90 97.90 102.10 93.00 95.80 132.00 103.60

Feb-16 105.80 97.20 103.60 93.60 97.30 99.90 97.00 103.30

Mar-16 120.10 113.20 119.00 121.40 106.90 112.70 152.80 119.00

Apr-16 144.80 118.80 124.70 133.70 114.70 119.90 155.10 129.60

May-16 156.60 135.60 142.30 143.40 129.90 137.80 153.00 145.80

Jun-16 150.60 141.60 149.10 148.70 138.20 146.00 164.20 154.70

Jul-16 135.40 129.20 137.00 135.80 127.20 134.30 141.20 140.00

Aug-16 137.90 132.50 139.90 142.90 129.50 137.90 138.80 140.00

Sep-16 143.80 135.10 141.80 139.30 131.90 140.00 155.20 145.50

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -1.5% -5.1% -6.5% 3.0% -5.4% -3.0% -9.5% -3.1%


B1: World Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day)

Notes: 1. Totals for OECD and non-OECD supply include net refining gains; specific regions/groupings within each do not. 2. OPEC demand is an estimate based on

historical annual data. 3. Balance for World equals global stockbuilds (+) and stockdraws (-) for crude oil and petroleum products and miscellaneous gains and loss-

es. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports and stock changes in the short-term, and net-imports in the longer term. Supply includes

crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-conventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products.

Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

OECD Non-OECD OPEC World

Americas Europe Asia Ocean. Total1 Asia Non-Asia FSU Total1 P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total2 Total3

Demand

2011 24.0 14.3 8.2 46.4 19.3 11.4 4.6 35.3 4.9 2.9 7.9 89.5

2012 23.6 13.8 8.5 45.9 19.8 12.0 4.6 36.4 5.1 3.0 8.2 90.7

2013 24.2 13.6 8.3 46.1 20.7 12.0 4.8 37.5 5.3 3.1 8.5 92.0

2014 24.2 13.5 8.1 45.8 21.3 12.2 4.9 38.4 5.5 3.2 8.9 93.2

2015 24.6 13.7 8.0 46.4 22.5 12.2 4.9 39.6 5.8 3.4 9.2 95.0

3Q 2014 24.4 13.9 7.7 45.9 20.8 12.5 5.1 38.4 5.5 3.2 8.9 93.3

4Q 2014 24.6 13.5 8.3 46.4 21.8 12.0 5.0 38.8 5.5 3.2 8.9 94.1

1Q 2015 24.5 13.5 8.7 46.6 22.1 11.5 4.7 38.3 5.8 3.4 9.2 94.0

2Q 2015 24.4 13.6 7.6 45.6 22.6 12.4 4.9 39.9 5.8 3.4 9.2 94.5

3Q 2015 25.0 14.2 7.7 46.9 22.3 12.6 5.1 40.0 5.8 3.4 9.2 96.0

4Q 2015 24.5 13.7 8.2 46.4 22.9 12.2 5.0 40.1 5.8 3.4 9.2 95.6

1Q 2016 24.5 13.6 8.5 46.7 23.1 11.2 4.9 39.2 6.0 3.5 9.6 95.5

2Q 2016 24.4 13.9 7.6 46.0 23.3 11.9 4.9 40.1 6.0 3.5 9.6 95.8

3Q 2016 24.8 14.2 7.8 46.7 22.9 12.3 5.3 40.5 6.0 3.5 9.6 96.8

Supply

2011 14.6 3.8 0.6 20.1 7.7 8.5 13.6 30.7 25.7 9.6 35.8 88.6

2012 15.8 3.5 0.6 21.0 6.9 8.0 13.8 29.6 26.2 10.6 37.6 90.9

2013 17.2 3.3 0.5 22.2 6.9 7.7 13.8 29.4 26.2 9.8 36.7 91.4

2014 19.1 3.3 0.5 24.1 6.9 7.9 13.9 29.7 26.8 9.0 37.5 93.8

2015 20.0 3.5 0.5 25.1 7.1 8.1 14.0 30.2 28.2 8.7 39.1 96.6

3Q 2014 19.3 3.1 0.5 24.1 6.8 8.2 13.8 29.8 26.9 9.3 37.0 94.3

4Q 2014 19.9 3.4 0.5 25.0 7.1 8.3 13.9 30.3 26.8 9.4 37.0 95.5

1Q 2015 20.1 3.4 0.4 25.1 7.1 8.1 14.0 30.2 27.3 8.8 36.9 95.3

2Q 2015 19.7 3.5 0.4 24.8 7.2 8.1 14.0 30.3 28.3 8.9 38.0 96.5

3Q 2015 20.1 3.4 0.5 25.2 7.0 7.9 13.9 29.8 28.7 8.6 39.1 97.2

4Q 2015 20.1 3.6 0.5 25.4 7.1 7.9 14.1 30.1 28.6 8.7 39.2 97.4

1Q 2016 19.9 3.6 0.4 25.3 7.0 7.8 14.2 30.0 28.9 8.5 39.6 96.6

2Q 2016 19.0 3.4 0.4 24.0 6.8 7.7 14.0 29.6 29.8 8.0 39.9 95.9

3Q 2016 19.1 3.4 0.4 24.2 6.6 7.9 14.0 29.6 30.5 7.8 40.5 97.1

Balance

2011 -9.4 -10.5 -7.6 -26.3 -11.6 -2.9 9.0 -4.6 20.8 6.7 28.0 -0.9

2012 -7.8 -10.3 -7.9 -24.9 -12.9 -4.0 9.2 -6.8 21.1 7.6 29.4 0.2

2013 -7.0 -10.3 -7.8 -23.9 -13.8 -4.3 9.0 -8.1 20.9 6.7 28.2 -0.6

2014 -5.1 -10.2 -7.6 -21.7 -14.4 -4.3 9.0 -8.7 21.2 5.7 28.6 0.6

2015 -4.6 -10.2 -7.5 -21.3 -15.4 -4.1 9.1 -9.4 22.5 5.3 29.8 1.6

3Q 2014 -5.1 -10.8 -7.2 -21.8 -14.0 -4.3 8.7 -8.6 21.3 6.1 28.1 1.0

4Q 2014 -4.7 -10.1 -7.8 -21.4 -14.7 -3.7 8.9 -8.5 21.3 6.1 28.1 1.4

1Q 2015 -4.4 -10.1 -8.3 -21.5 -15.0 -3.4 9.3 -8.1 21.5 5.4 27.7 1.3

2Q 2015 -4.7 -10.1 -7.2 -20.8 -15.4 -4.3 9.1 -9.5 22.5 5.5 28.8 2.0

3Q 2015 -4.9 -10.8 -7.2 -21.7 -15.3 -4.7 8.8 -10.2 22.9 5.2 29.9 1.2

4Q 2015 -4.4 -10.1 -7.7 -21.0 -15.8 -4.3 9.1 -10.0 22.9 5.3 29.9 1.8

1Q 2016 -4.6 -10.0 -8.1 -21.4 -16.1 -3.4 9.3 -9.1 22.9 5.0 30.0 1.1

2Q 2016 -5.4 -10.5 -7.2 -22.0 -16.5 -4.2 9.1 -10.5 23.8 4.5 30.3 0.1

3Q 2016 -5.7 -10.8 -7.4 -22.5 -16.3 -4.4 8.7 -10.9 24.5 4.3 30.9 0.3


B2: World Petroleum Production (million barrels per day)

B3: OECD Commercial Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)

Notes: 1. Production includes crude oil, condensates and NGLs. 2. Reserve-Production ratio is based on latest month production and British Petroleum reserve

estimates. Sources: IEA Oil Market Report and BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

Notes: 1. Product includes only finished petroleum products. 2. Total stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All

stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.


Americas Europe Asia Oc. Total Asia Non-Asia FSU Total P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total Total1

2013 17.14 3.32 0.48 20.94 7.73 7.97 13.80 29.50 26.18 9.80 36.72 87.16

2014 19.08 3.32 0.51 22.91 6.88 8.16 13.87 28.90 26.77 8.96 37.48 89.29

2015 19.99 3.48 0.46 23.92 7.09 8.05 14.00 29.15 28.23 8.67 39.05 92.12

3Q 2015 20.05 3.35 0.50 23.91 7.01 8.21 13.92 29.15 28.66 8.63 39.13 92.19

4Q 2015 20.08 3.60 0.47 24.15 7.08 8.16 14.06 29.30 28.62 8.67 39.15 92.60

1Q 2016 19.89 3.63 0.43 23.96 6.96 7.75 14.21 28.92 28.94 8.50 39.60 92.48

2Q 2016 18.96 3.44 0.41 22.82 6.77 7.77 14.01 28.55 29.78 8.02 39.89 91.26

3Q 2016 19.13 3.40 0.44 22.96 6.64 7.98 13.97 28.60 30.51 7.82 40.47 92.03

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -4.6% 1.5% -12.0% -4.0% -5.3% -2.8% 0.4% -1.9% 6.5% -9.3% 3.4% -0.2%

Sep-15 19.65 3.31 0.48 23.44 7.95 8.17 13.92 30.04 28.66 8.84 38.37 91.85

Oct-15 19.93 3.53 0.46 23.93 7.05 8.16 13.94 29.15 28.46 8.76 39.09 92.17

Nov-15 20.06 3.60 0.49 24.15 7.18 8.15 14.07 29.40 28.71 8.70 39.23 92.78

Dec-15 20.01 3.65 0.47 24.13 7.09 8.33 14.08 29.48 28.69 8.62 39.15 92.76

Jan-16 19.83 3.55 0.44 23.83 6.96 8.00 14.19 29.15 29.02 8.59 39.47 92.45

Feb-16 19.85 3.62 0.44 23.90 6.95 7.97 14.21 29.13 28.90 8.53 39.31 92.34

Mar-16 19.86 3.59 0.43 23.88 6.86 7.78 14.20 28.84 28.85 8.44 39.20 91.92

Apr-16 19.25 3.57 0.42 23.24 6.78 7.57 14.05 28.41 29.40 8.27 39.77 91.42

May-16 18.56 3.48 0.42 22.46 6.73 7.81 14.02 28.56 29.66 7.90 39.63 90.65

Jun-16 18.73 3.27 0.43 22.43 6.80 7.92 14.09 28.80 30.05 7.96 40.11 91.34

Jul-16 19.26 3.64 0.46 23.36 6.69 7.94 14.11 28.73 30.45 7.80 40.37 92.46

Aug-16 19.18 3.29 0.43 22.89 6.59 8.00 13.60 28.18 30.50 7.80 40.43 91.50

Sep-16 18.94 3.26 0.42 22.62 6.65 8.03 14.22 28.90 30.59 7.90 40.59 92.11

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -3.6% -1.5% -12.5% -3.5% -16.4% -1.7% 2.2% -3.8% 6.7% -10.6% 5.8% 0.3%

R/P Ratio2 33.6 10.7 26.7 30.2 14.4 23.0 27.3 23.2 71.6 138.6 81.0 50.6

Americas Europe Asia Oceania OECD

Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product1 Total2

2013 500 670 1,315 307 497 869 145 170 382 952 1,337 2,566

2014 553 727 1,443 311 505 880 157 169 389 1,020 1,401 2,712

2015 641 773 1,590 361 563 990 206 166 435 1,208 1,502 3,015

2Q 2015 626 735 1,537 344 523 939 201 165 430 1,171 1,423 2,906

3Q 2015 617 763 1,572 339 559 967 202 176 445 1,158 1,498 2,984

4Q 2015 641 773 1,590 361 563 990 206 166 435 1,208 1,502 3,015

1Q 2016 689 758 1,620 349 586 1,004 196 166 421 1,235 1,509 3,046

2Q 2016 650 773 1,609 357 581 1,006 202 175 438 1,208 1,529 3,052

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.8% 5.2% 4.6% 3.6% 11.1% 7.1% 0.4% 5.9% 1.9% 3.2% 7.5% 5.0%

Aug-15 614 759 1,564 343 553 964 205 178 449 1,162 1,490 2,976

Sep-15 617 763 1,572 339 559 967 202 176 445 1,158 1,498 2,984

Oct-15 642 745 1,576 347 556 972 205 169 439 1,194 1,469 2,987

Nov-15 647 762 1,593 346 568 980 191 170 428 1,183 1,500 3,001

Dec-15 641 773 1,590 361 563 990 206 166 435 1,208 1,502 3,015

Jan-16 661 780 1,614 358 589 1,015 192 167 425 1,210 1,536 3,054

Feb-16 676 765 1,611 354 593 1,020 196 163 422 1,225 1,522 3,052

Mar-16 689 758 1,620 349 586 1,004 196 166 421 1,235 1,509 3,046

Apr-16 661 762 1,599 352 584 1,006 194 164 420 1,207 1,510 3,025

May-16 656 764 1,602 357 589 1,014 203 171 434 1,215 1,525 3,050

Jun-16 650 773 1,609 357 581 1,006 202 175 438 1,208 1,529 3,052

Jul-16 647 795 1,636 364 592 1,025 196 184 442 1,207 1,571 3,102

Aug-16 636 807 1,634 361 590 1,020 183 192 438 1,180 1,590 3,092

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.4% 6.3% 4.5% 5.4% 6.7% 5.8% -10.4% 7.9% -2.4% 1.6% 6.7% 3.9%


B4: OPEC Crude Oil Production and Targets (million barrels per day)

Notes: 1. Does not include NGLs; OPEC production targets apply to crude oil only. 2. Iraq does not have an official OPEC target. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

B5: OECD Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent) - Refining Margins ($US/barrel)

Notes: 1. Based on dated Brent being processed in average US Gulf cracking refinery. 2. Based on dated Brent in average Rotterdam cracking refinery. 3. Based on

spot Dubai in average Singapore hydroskimming refinery. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

Non-Persian Gulf OPEC-12

Arabia Iran UAE Kuwait Qatar Angola Nigeria Libya Algeria Venez. Ecuador Indonesia Total1 Iraq2

2013 9.66 2.68 2.76 2.81 0.73 1.72 1.95 0.90 1.15 2.50 0.52 0.87 27.38 3.08

2014 9.72 2.81 2.76 2.80 0.71 1.66 1.90 0.46 1.12 2.46 0.55 0.70 27.65 3.33

2015 10.17 2.86 2.88 2.79 0.66 1.76 1.80 0.40 1.11 2.40 0.54 0.69 28.3 3.99

3Q 2015 10.29 2.87 2.92 2.78 0.64 1.77 1.80 0.38 1.12 2.40 0.53 0.69 28.19 4.25

4Q 2015 10.18 2.89 2.89 2.78 0.66 1.76 1.84 0.40 1.11 2.38 0.54 0.69 28.11 4.28

1Q 2016 10.21 3.15 2.81 2.83 0.66 1.77 1.76 0.36 1.10 2.34 0.54 0.71 28.48 4.28

2Q 2016 10.32 3.59 2.97 2.82 0.66 1.74 1.50 0.32 1.09 2.22 0.55 0.74 28.73 4.30

3Q 2016 10.61 3.65 3.09 2.89 0.65 1.75 1.42 0.31 1.11 2.14 0.55 0.74 29.14 4.38

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.1% 27.2% 5.8% 4.0% 1.6% -1.1% -21.1% -18.4% -0.9% -10.8% 3.8% 7.2% 3.4% 3.1%

Sep-15 10.20 2.88 2.91 2.81 0.65 1.79 1.86 0.37 1.12 2.38 0.53 0.84 27.50 4.30

Oct-15 10.21 2.88 2.89 2.73 0.67 1.78 1.90 0.43 1.11 2.38 0.53 0.67 28.18 4.17

Nov-15 10.19 2.87 2.89 2.80 0.68 1.74 1.84 0.39 1.11 2.40 0.54 0.69 28.14 4.33

Dec-15 10.14 2.91 2.89 2.81 0.64 1.75 1.80 0.38 1.11 2.37 0.54 0.70 28.04 4.35

Jan-16 10.21 3.00 2.93 2.83 0.64 1.75 1.85 0.38 1.10 2.35 0.53 0.70 28.27 4.43

Feb-16 10.22 3.20 2.78 2.83 0.67 1.76 1.76 0.37 1.10 2.37 0.55 0.71 28.32 4.22

Mar-16 10.19 3.26 2.73 2.83 0.67 1.80 1.68 0.34 1.11 2.35 0.55 0.73 28.24 4.19

Apr-16 10.22 3.56 2.82 2.73 0.66 1.75 1.62 0.35 1.09 2.30 0.54 0.73 28.59 4.36

May-16 10.25 3.61 2.91 2.85 0.66 1.72 1.44 0.28 1.09 2.22 0.55 0.74 28.54 4.27

Jun-16 10.50 3.62 3.01 2.87 0.66 1.74 1.51 0.32 1.10 2.16 0.55 0.74 29.00 4.25

Jul-16 10.65 3.63 3.08 2.87 0.66 1.76 1.39 0.30 1.11 2.15 0.55 0.74 29.11 4.32

Aug-16 10.60 3.64 3.09 2.91 0.65 1.76 1.43 0.28 1.11 2.14 0.55 0.74 29.11 4.37

Sep-16 10.58 3.67 3.10 2.90 0.64 1.74 1.45 0.35 1.12 2.13 0.55 0.74 29.18 4.46

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.7% 27.4% 6.5% 3.2% -1.5% -2.8% -22.0% -5.4% 0.0% -10.5% 3.8% -11.9% 6.1% 3.7%

Persian Gulf

Americas Europe Asia Oceania OECD

Input Util. Margin1 Input Util. Margin2 Input Util. Margin3 Input Util.

2013 18.4 85.6 1.38 11.5 79.1 3.48 6.7 128.5 -1.63 36.6 82.5

2014 18.9 88.0 1.93 11.4 79.6 3.35 6.5 138.6 -1.98 36.8 83.9

2015 19.1 87.3 5.65 12.1 84.8 7.28 6.7 146.0 0.62 37.9 85.9

2Q 2015 19.4 88.5 5.89 11.8 82.7 8.10 6.4 139.6 0.5 37.6 85.2

3Q 2015 19.5 89.1 7.30 12.4 86.8 8.91 6.7 146.4 -1.1 38.6 87.5

4Q 2015 19.1 87.2 3.49 12.3 85.9 5.09 6.7 144.8 0.6 38.0 86.1

1Q 2016 19.0 86.7 3.73 11.8 82.4 3.99 7.1 154.8 1.2 37.8 85.8

2Q 2016 18.9 86.5 4.70 11.4 79.9 4.42 6.7 146.6 -1.5 37.1 84.0

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -2.3% -20.2% -3.4% -45.4% 5.0% -437.2% -1.4%

Aug-15 19.7 90.0 8.54 12.4 87.0 10.05 7.0 151.7 -1.4 39.1 88.6

Sep-15 19.0 87.0 3.60 12.5 87.3 7.15 6.5 140.9 0.2 38.0 86.0

Oct-15 18.2 83.3 4.12 12.4 86.6 4.24 6.4 138.2 -0.8 36.9 83.7

Nov-15 19.3 88.1 3.60 12.2 85.2 6.65 6.6 143.5 1.8 38.0 86.2

Dec-15 19.7 90.1 2.76 12.3 86.0 4.38 7.0 152.6 0.7 39.0 88.4

Jan-16 19.0 87.0 4.27 12.0 84.2 5.50 7.1 154.8 2.8 38.2 86.5

Feb-16 18.8 85.8 3.13 11.7 82.3 3.66 7.3 157.8 0.9 37.8 85.6

Mar-16 19.1 87.3 3.78 11.5 80.6 2.80 7.0 151.7 -0.2 37.6 85.2

Apr-16 18.8 85.9 5.41 11.4 80.0 4.37 7.0 151.1 -1.5 37.2 84.2

May-16 18.8 85.7 4.30 11.3 79.0 4.05 6.8 146.9 -1.8 36.8 83.4

Jun-16 19.2 87.8 4.39 11.5 80.6 4.85 6.5 141.9 -1.3 37.2 84.4

Jul-16 19.4 88.7 4.58 12.3 86.3 3.02 6.8 147.4 0.1 38.5 87.3

Aug-16 19.6 89.4 6.00 12.5 87.5 3.43 6.9 150.9 -1.1 39.0 88.4

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.7% -29.7% 0.6% -66% -0.6% -19.3% -0.2%


C1: US Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day)

Notes: 1. Does not balance because of unaccounted for crude oil. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports/transfers and stock chang-

es in the short-term, and net-imports/transfers in the longer term. 2. As of most recent month. Supply includes crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-

conventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

United States1 East Mid-West

Supply Demand Net-Imp. Stk. Chg. Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance

2013 12.11 18.89 6.20 -0.13 0.19 5.23 -5.04 2.90 4.88 -1.97

2014 13.67 19.03 5.04 0.26 0.31 5.45 -5.14 3.35 4.91 -1.56

2015 14.78 19.39 4.65 0.43 0.41 5.58 -5.17 3.63 5.01 -1.38

2Q 2015 14.91 19.25 4.61 0.69 0.43 5.49 -5.06 3.64 4.99 -1.36

3Q 2015 14.85 19.67 4.73 0.33 0.42 5.54 -5.12 3.60 5.11 -1.50

4Q 2015 14.89 19.36 4.31 0.15 0.42 5.46 -5.05 3.74 4.97 -1.24

1Q 2016 14.72 19.45 4.98 0.41 0.44 5.52 -5.08 3.69 5.03 -1.35

2Q 2016 14.65 19.43 4.69 0.27 0.46 5.38 -4.92 3.67 5.09 -1.42

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -1.7% 1.0% 1.6% 5.9% -2.1% 0.9% 1.9%

Jul-15 14.82 19.98 4.54 -0.09 0.43 5.58 -5.15 3.65 5.18 -1.53

Aug-15 14.91 19.81 5.20 0.73 0.42 5.61 -5.20 3.60 5.07 -1.47

Sep-15 14.83 19.23 4.45 0.33 0.41 5.42 -5.01 3.56 5.06 -1.51

Oct-15 14.90 19.35 4.17 0.26 0.41 5.50 -5.10 3.70 5.15 -1.44

Nov-15 14.92 19.19 4.31 0.42 0.41 5.27 -4.86 3.74 4.80 -1.06

Dec-15 14.86 19.54 4.45 -0.22 0.43 5.62 -5.18 3.76 4.97 -1.21

Jan-16 14.69 19.06 4.86 0.83 0.44 5.31 -4.86 3.66 5.04 -1.38

Feb-16 14.64 19.68 5.07 0.14 0.44 5.74 -5.30 3.69 5.03 -1.33

Mar-16 14.82 19.62 5.00 0.26 0.44 5.52 -5.08 3.71 5.04 -1.33

Apr-16 14.59 19.26 4.68 0.36 0.46 5.38 -4.92 3.62 5.02 -1.40

May-16 14.77 19.20 4.53 0.51 0.46 5.29 -4.82 3.68 4.97 -1.29

Jun-16 14.60 19.83 4.87 -0.06 0.45 5.47 -5.02 3.70 5.27 -1.57

Jul-16 14.62 19.71 5.30 0.50 0.50 5.25 -4.75 3.65 5.16 -1.51

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -1.4% -1.3% 16.6% 15.5% -6.0% 0.1% -0.4%

% of Total2 100.0% 100.0% 3.4% 26.6% 25.0% 26.2%

South-Central North-West West Finished Petroleum Products

Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance

2013 6.77 5.28 1.49 0.87 0.71 0.16 1.37 2.79 -1.42

2014 7.65 5.16 2.50 0.98 0.71 0.27 1.38 2.81 -1.43

2015 8.31 5.20 3.11 1.10 0.69 0.41 1.33 2.91 -1.59

2Q 2015 8.38 5.15 3.24 1.12 0.69 0.43 1.34 2.93 -1.58

3Q 2015 8.44 5.29 3.15 1.12 0.70 0.41 1.27 3.04 -1.77

4Q 2015 8.32 5.33 2.99 1.10 0.67 0.42 1.32 2.92 -1.60

1Q 2016 8.16 5.35 2.81 1.08 0.70 0.38 1.34 2.85 -1.50

2Q 2016 8.16 5.25 2.91 1.08 0.69 0.39 1.29 3.03 -1.74

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -2.6% 2.1% -3.5% -0.3% -4.2% 3.4%

Jul-15 8.33 5.40 2.93 1.12 0.71 0.41 1.29 3.10 -1.82

Aug-15 8.54 5.33 3.21 1.12 0.74 0.38 1.23 3.06 -1.83

Sep-15 8.46 5.13 3.33 1.11 0.66 0.45 1.30 2.95 -1.65

Oct-15 8.39 5.05 3.34 1.10 0.69 0.42 1.31 2.96 -1.66

Nov-15 8.33 5.62 2.71 1.11 0.66 0.44 1.33 2.83 -1.50

Dec-15 8.25 5.33 2.92 1.08 0.67 0.41 1.33 2.96 -1.63

Jan-16 8.16 5.36 2.80 1.07 0.66 0.41 1.36 2.69 -1.33

Feb-16 8.09 5.27 2.82 1.08 0.73 0.35 1.34 2.91 -1.57

Mar-16 8.23 5.42 2.81 1.11 0.71 0.40 1.33 2.93 -1.61

Apr-16 8.15 5.25 2.90 1.08 0.63 0.45 1.29 2.99 -1.70

May-16 8.23 5.25 2.98 1.08 0.71 0.37 1.31 2.99 -1.67

Jun-16 8.11 5.26 2.85 1.07 0.73 0.34 1.26 3.11 -1.85

Jul-16 8.14 5.43 2.71 1.05 0.73 0.33 1.27 3.15 -1.88

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -2.3% 0.6% -6.0% 1.8% -1.4% 1.4%

% of Total2 55.7% 27.6% 7.2% 3.7% 8.7% 16.0%


C2: US Petroleum Demand by Product (million barrels per day)

Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons.

Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

C3: US Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)

Notes: 1. Petroleum stocks include crude oil, finished products, NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. 2. Includes Strategic

Petroleum Reserves. 3. Total includes other finished petroleum products. All stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply

Monthly.

Finished Petroleum Products NGLs Petroleum

Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total1 Total Total2

2013 8.77 1.42 3.84 0.32 16.32 2.45 18.89

2014 8.92 1.47 4.01 0.26 16.64 2.40 19.03

2015 9.16 1.54 3.98 0.26 16.94 2.47 19.39

2Q 2015 9.26 1.54 3.88 0.19 16.93 2.27 19.25

3Q 2015 9.39 1.59 3.93 0.31 17.41 2.29 19.67

4Q 2015 9.17 1.57 3.83 0.30 16.79 2.58 19.36

1Q 2016 9.09 1.50 3.91 0.31 16.70 2.73 19.45

2Q 2016 9.44 1.61 3.81 0.41 17.24 2.25 19.43

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.9% 4.5% -1.9% 119.0% 1.9% -0.9% 1.0%

Jul-15 9.44 1.64 3.88 0.33 17.52 2.40 19.98

Aug-15 9.47 1.60 3.89 0.32 17.53 2.34 19.81

Sep-15 9.28 1.54 4.02 0.28 17.18 2.14 19.23

Oct-15 9.25 1.58 3.99 0.21 17.06 2.43 19.35

Nov-15 9.11 1.55 3.70 0.36 16.60 2.55 19.19

Dec-15 9.14 1.58 3.80 0.33 16.71 2.77 19.54

Jan-16 8.67 1.45 3.82 0.34 16.12 2.96 19.06

Feb-16 9.21 1.53 3.96 0.20 16.77 2.72 19.68

Mar-16 9.40 1.54 3.94 0.40 17.22 2.51 19.62

Apr-16 9.21 1.56 3.82 0.48 16.98 2.30 19.26

May-16 9.44 1.56 3.75 0.33 17.06 2.26 19.20

Jun-16 9.66 1.71 3.86 0.41 17.70 2.19 19.83

Jul-16 9.60 1.72 3.58 0.45 17.48 2.38 19.71

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.7% 4.8% -7.7% 39.7% -0.2% -0.8% -1.3%

Petroleum Stocks1 Crude Oil Finished Products

East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West U.S. Total2 Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total3

2013 151 269 1,162 39 139 1,760 1,054 40 37 127 38 291

2014 158 289 1,227 42 140 1,856 1,085 31 38 136 34 287

2015 193 335 1,298 46 144 2,015 1,176 28 40 161 42 325

2Q 2015 171 322 1,290 43 145 1,971 1,163 26 44 139 42 305

3Q 2015 184 318 1,311 43 145 2,001 1,156 29 40 149 41 308

4Q 2015 193 335 1,298 46 144 2,015 1,176 28 40 161 42 325

1Q 2016 190 336 1,331 47 148 2,052 1,228 26 44 161 45 334

2Q 2016 199 335 1,350 46 148 2,077 1,224 25 40 149 40 310

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 15.9% 4.2% 4.6% 7.0% 2.4% 5.4% 5.2% -3.1% -7.5% 7.0% -3.6% 1.7%

Jul-15 173 323 1,289 43 141 1,969 1,151 24 44 142 40 302

Aug-15 179 329 1,299 42 142 1,991 1,153 26 43 152 39 310

Sep-15 184 318 1,311 43 145 2,001 1,156 29 40 149 41 308

Oct-15 185 314 1,319 43 148 2,009 1,182 28 38 143 43 299

Nov-15 188 331 1,306 44 151 2,022 1,183 28 38 157 44 316

Dec-15 193 335 1,298 46 144 2,015 1,176 28 40 161 42 325

Jan-16 200 338 1,302 46 154 2,041 1,195 27 42 161 44 330

Feb-16 202 338 1,307 46 152 2,045 1,215 27 42 163 46 335

Mar-16 190 336 1,331 47 148 2,052 1,228 26 44 161 45 334

Apr-16 197 334 1,340 47 145 2,063 1,233 25 43 155 43 325

May-16 197 338 1,345 46 153 2,079 1,236 24 45 154 40 321

Jun-16 199 335 1,350 46 148 2,077 1,224 25 40 149 40 310

Jul-16 204 339 1,328 42 149 2,062 1,185 25 42 156 38 316

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 17.7% 5.1% 3.1% -1.5% 5.5% 4.8% 3.0% 1.5% -4.2% 9.7% -4.1% 4.6%


C4: US Petroleum Net Imports by Source (million barrels per day)

Notes: 1. Total includes net-imports from Russia and Asia-Pacific region. 2. Total OPEC includes the other eight cartel members. 3. As of latest month. Source EIA

Petroleum Supply Monthly.

C5: US Regional Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day)

Notes: 1. California includes Federal Offshore crude oil production. 2. Gulf of Mexico includes Federal Offshore production adjacent to Texas and Louisiana. 3. Crude

oil Reserve-Production ratio as of latest production month. Crude oil production does not include NGLs. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

OPEC

Canada Mexico Lat. Am. Europe Africa M.E. Total1 Venez. S. Arabia Nigeria Total2 P. Gulf

2013 2.59 0.39 0.74 -0.08 0.37 1.99 6.20 0.71 1.32 0.24 3.47 1.99

2014 2.58 0.29 0.56 -0.12 0.17 1.85 5.04 0.71 1.16 0.04 2.98 1.86

2015 2.81 0.07 0.73 -0.18 0.17 1.49 4.65 0.75 1.05 0.06 2.65 1.50

2Q 2015 2.69 0.12 0.71 -0.14 0.15 1.61 4.61 0.74 1.16 0.02 2.67 1.61

3Q 2015 2.80 0.01 0.88 -0.15 0.22 1.32 4.73 0.79 1.01 0.08 2.58 1.33

4Q 2015 2.77 -0.01 0.70 -0.31 0.19 1.64 4.31 0.79 1.11 0.08 2.87 1.64

1Q 2016 3.21 -0.12 0.77 -0.18 0.36 1.62 4.98 0.72 1.12 0.22 3.06 1.62

2Q 2016 2.65 -0.06 0.69 -0.32 0.40 1.84 4.69 0.71 1.14 0.26 3.25 1.78

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -1.6% -150.1% -2.0% 118.9% 165.2% 14.3% 1.6% -3.8% -1.9% 1015.7% 22.0% 10.3%

Jul-15 2.53 -0.05 0.81 -0.10 0.24 1.45 4.54 0.70 1.17 0.11 2.63 1.46

Aug-15 2.98 0.09 1.03 -0.01 0.18 1.25 5.21 0.85 1.01 0.05 2.50 1.25

Sep-15 2.88 0.00 0.79 -0.34 0.25 1.28 4.45 0.81 0.86 0.08 2.61 1.28

Oct-15 2.43 0.03 0.67 -0.27 0.14 1.54 4.17 0.73 0.98 0.04 2.68 1.54

Nov-15 2.73 0.03 0.61 -0.33 0.20 1.65 4.31 0.77 1.23 0.08 2.91 1.65

Dec-15 3.14 -0.09 0.81 -0.32 0.22 1.72 4.45 0.86 1.12 0.13 3.02 1.73

Jan-16 3.19 -0.02 0.62 -0.17 0.23 1.51 4.86 0.65 1.05 0.12 2.82 1.51

Feb-16 3.32 -0.10 0.72 -0.18 0.41 1.55 5.07 0.73 1.01 0.25 2.94 1.55

Mar-16 3.12 -0.23 0.96 -0.18 0.44 1.80 5.00 0.80 1.31 0.29 3.42 1.81

Apr-16 2.71 0.03 0.61 -0.37 0.36 1.77 4.67 0.72 1.15 0.23 3.18 1.71

May-16 2.70 -0.08 0.65 -0.41 0.39 1.98 4.53 0.69 1.17 0.30 3.42 1.92

Jun-16 2.53 -0.14 0.82 -0.18 0.43 1.76 4.87 0.71 1.10 0.25 3.15 1.71

Jul-16 2.44 -0.11 0.82 -0.18 0.49 1.81 5.30 0.84 1.05 0.30 3.56 1.75

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -3.7% 129.2% 1.4% 69.9% 103.3% 24.2% 16.6% 20.2% -10.3% 179% 35.4% 20.0%

% of Total3 46.1% -2.1% 15.5% -3.3% 9.2% 34.1% 100.0% 15.9% 19.8% 5.6% 67.3% 33.1%

Region of Origin

PAD District U.S. Major Producers

East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West Total Alaska Calif.1 Louis. Texas G. of Mex.2

2013 0.03 1.34 4.33 0.50 1.11 7.31 0.52 0.59 0.20 2.47 1.28

2014 0.04 1.62 5.00 0.58 1.11 8.35 0.50 0.60 0.19 3.04 1.35

2015 0.05 1.81 5.69 0.73 1.08 9.35 0.49 0.59 0.17 3.50 1.50

2Q 2015 0.05 1.77 5.65 0.73 1.09 9.28 0.49 0.59 0.17 3.54 1.43

3Q 2015 0.06 1.82 5.71 0.76 1.05 9.39 0.47 0.58 0.17 3.52 1.48

4Q 2015 0.05 1.78 5.75 0.75 1.02 9.35 0.46 0.56 0.17 3.41 1.65

1Q 2016 0.05 1.82 5.68 0.72 1.10 9.37 0.53 0.57 0.16 3.41 1.62

2Q 2016 0.05 1.72 5.48 0.67 1.04 8.96 0.50 0.54 0.16 3.24 1.58

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -9.5% -2.8% -2.9% -7.6% -4.4% -3.5% 0.6% -8.5% -5.9% -8.4% 11.1%

Jul-15 0.07 1.82 5.79 0.74 1.08 9.51 0.47 0.61 0.18 3.66 1.41

Aug-15 0.06 1.77 5.43 0.73 1.01 9.00 0.47 0.54 0.17 3.35 1.40

Sep-15 0.05 1.87 5.90 0.80 1.05 9.67 0.46 0.58 0.17 3.56 1.64

Oct-15 0.05 1.77 5.77 0.77 0.97 9.32 0.41 0.56 0.17 3.42 1.65

Nov-15 0.05 1.74 5.81 0.76 1.04 9.39 0.47 0.56 0.17 3.42 1.69

Dec-15 0.04 1.84 5.68 0.73 1.05 9.35 0.50 0.55 0.17 3.39 1.61

Jan-16 0.04 1.77 5.45 0.71 1.05 9.02 0.51 0.55 0.16 3.29 1.50

Feb-16 0.05 1.93 5.99 0.76 1.17 9.90 0.56 0.61 0.17 3.57 1.75

Mar-16 0.05 1.75 5.61 0.70 1.07 9.18 0.52 0.55 0.16 3.36 1.61

Apr-16 0.05 1.70 5.38 0.66 1.04 8.82 0.49 0.55 0.16 3.21 1.52

May-16 0.05 1.76 5.58 0.68 1.06 9.13 0.51 0.55 0.16 3.28 1.64

Jun-16 0.05 1.70 5.49 0.67 1.03 8.93 0.49 0.54 0.16 3.23 1.59

Jul-16 0.04 1.70 5.46 0.65 1.04 8.89 0.51 0.53 0.16 3.20 1.62

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -33.3% -7.0% -5.7% -12.0% -4.3% -6.5% 6.9% -12.9% -10.6% -12.7% 14.6%

R/P Ratio3 21.1 13.8 10.7 15.3 16.0 12.3 15.5 16.4 11.2 12.0 8.0


C6: US Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent)

Notes: 1) As of most recent month. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

C7: US Refinery Margins ($US per barrel)

Note: Based on specific crude being processed in average cracking refinery in a given area. As of February 2010, NY Harbor Arab Med. is now East Coast Composite.

Source: Oil and Gas Journal.

East Mid-West South-Central North-West West U.S.

Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util.

2013 1.10 85.1 3.42 90.7 8.22 90.4 0.58 92.7 2.56 84.8 15.88 89.2

2014 1.09 84.2 3.52 92.5 8.38 91.5 0.58 90.5 2.57 87.0 16.14 90.4

2015 1.15 90.7 3.59 93.1 8.70 93.4 0.60 93.2 2.58 88.2 16.61 92.3

2Q 2015 1.15 91.0 3.70 96.2 8.77 94.4 0.60 93.4 2.46 84.0 16.69 92.8

3Q 2015 1.15 90.4 3.65 94.6 8.77 93.5 0.61 94.2 2.67 91.0 16.85 93.2

4Q 2015 1.15 90.6 3.41 87.7 8.71 92.4 0.60 92.5 2.54 86.5 16.40 90.3

1Q 2016 1.09 85.2 3.58 91.3 8.52 89.5 0.58 85.1 2.50 85.6 16.26 88.8

2Q 2016 1.16 90.7 3.54 90.2 8.70 91.1 0.58 83.9 2.53 86.4 16.50 89.9

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.4% -4.1% -0.9% -4.9% 2.6% -1.1%

Jul-15 1.19 93.6 3.82 99.3 8.89 95.0 0.62 95.4 2.66 90.6 17.18 95.1

Aug-15 1.20 94.0 3.64 94.7 8.83 94.3 0.62 94.6 2.68 91.4 16.96 93.9

Sep-15 1.06 83.5 3.48 89.8 8.58 91.3 0.60 92.5 2.67 91.1 16.39 90.4

Oct-15 1.13 89.0 3.01 77.5 8.39 89.4 0.61 92.9 2.55 87.1 15.69 86.6

Nov-15 1.19 93.5 3.55 91.6 8.76 92.8 0.60 92.5 2.57 87.5 16.67 91.8

Dec-15 1.14 89.2 3.66 94.0 8.96 95.0 0.60 92.0 2.49 85.0 16.85 92.6

Jan-16 1.14 88.9 3.72 94.9 8.39 88.2 0.57 84.1 2.55 87.1 16.37 89.4

Feb-16 1.08 84.5 3.63 92.6 8.44 88.7 0.58 84.7 2.44 83.4 16.17 88.3

Mar-16 1.05 82.3 3.39 86.5 8.72 91.6 0.58 86.4 2.52 86.1 16.26 88.8

Apr-16 1.15 89.8 3.34 85.0 8.63 90.7 0.51 75.0 2.60 88.9 16.22 88.5

May-16 1.17 91.9 3.61 92.0 8.69 91.4 0.57 83.4 2.44 83.3 16.48 89.9

Jun-16 1.16 90.4 3.69 93.7 8.77 91.3 0.65 93.1 2.55 87.1 16.80 91.1

Jul-16 1.10 85.7 3.73 94.7 8.88 92.4 0.63 90.7 2.67 91.2 16.99 92.2

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -8.1% -2.4% -0.2% 1.6% 0.4% -1.1%

% of Total1 6.4% 21.9% 52.2% 3.7% 15.7% 100.0%

NY Harbor Chicago US Gulf Los Angeles

(East Coast Comp.) (WTI) (WTS) (ANS)

2013 9.20 21.63 12.83 10.25

2014 8.62 16.57 11.76 8.68

2015 12.86 18.05 12.96 19.50

3Q 2015 12.47 24.84 13.79 23.75

4Q 2015 8.74 12.99 8.98 16.67

1Q 2016 8.14 7.55 8.65 11.05

2Q 2016 10.38 15.87 11.29 13.47

3Q 2016 8.81 13.83 10.94 10.66

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -29.3% -44.3% -20.7% -55.1%

Sep-15 10.13 20.37 9.07 14.88

Oct-15 7.03 19.61 9.08 14.45

Nov-15 9.83 10.00 9.25 13.00

Dec-15 9.35 9.35 8.62 22.57

Jan-16 9.37 5.65 8.70 13.01

Feb-16 7.20 5.28 7.38 3.38

Mar-16 7.84 11.71 9.88 16.76

Apr-16 10.04 14.59 11.48 14.59

May-16 11.03 15.89 11.11 10.81

Jun-16 10.06 17.13 11.27 15.02

Jul-16 8.21 11.41 9.83 8.87

Aug-16 9.36 15.92 12.25 8.76

Sep-16 8.87 14.16 10.73 14.34

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -12.4% -30.5% 18.3% -3.6%


D1: Canada Petroleum Supply and Demand Balances (million barrels per day)

D2: Canada Demand by Product (million barrels per day)

Notes: 1. As of most recent month. See notes for Table C1 for additional comments. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

D3: Canada Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)

Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All stocks are closing levels. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

Canada East West

Supply Demand Net-Exp Stk. Chg. Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance

2013 3.79 1.65 2.16 0.01 0.28 0.92 -0.64 3.51 0.73 2.78

2014 4.09 1.56 2.54 0.02 0.27 0.87 -0.60 3.82 0.70 3.12

2015 4.24 1.58 2.69 0.03 0.22 0.90 -0.68 4.02 0.68 3.34

2Q 2015 4.24 1.54 2.65 -0.04 0.24 0.94 -0.70 4.00 0.60 3.40

3Q 2015 4.59 1.60 3.09 0.10 0.22 0.96 -0.74 4.37 0.64 3.73

4Q 2015 4.65 1.49 3.27 0.12 0.25 0.92 -0.67 4.40 0.58 3.82

1Q 2016 4.61 1.41 3.19 -0.01 0.29 0.84 -0.55 4.33 0.57 3.75

2Q 2016 3.86 1.44 2.30 -0.12 0.26 0.79 -0.53 3.60 0.64 2.96

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -8.9% -6.8% -13.4% 10.1% -15.4% -10.0% 6.4%

Jun-15 4.31 1.58 2.69 -0.05 0.22 0.96 -0.74 4.09 0.62 3.47

Jul-15 4.69 1.63 3.27 0.21 0.22 0.98 -0.76 4.47 0.65 3.83

Aug-15 4.79 1.64 3.19 0.05 0.23 0.98 -0.76 4.56 0.66 3.90

Sep-15 4.28 1.53 2.80 0.05 0.21 0.92 -0.71 4.08 0.61 3.46

Oct-15 4.47 1.36 3.26 0.15 0.17 0.83 -0.66 4.30 0.53 3.78

Nov-15 4.69 1.59 3.26 0.15 0.28 0.96 -0.68 4.41 0.63 3.79

Dec-15 4.78 1.53 3.30 0.05 0.30 0.95 -0.65 4.48 0.58 3.90

Jan-16 4.69 1.34 3.27 -0.07 0.29 0.84 -0.55 4.40 0.51 3.89

Feb-16 4.61 1.23 3.39 0.00 0.29 0.74 -0.44 4.32 0.49 3.83

Mar-16 4.54 1.66 2.92 0.04 0.28 0.94 -0.66 4.26 0.72 3.54

Apr-16 4.17 1.65 2.56 0.04 0.27 0.95 -0.67 3.90 0.70 3.20

May-16 3.56 1.20 2.16 -0.20 0.29 0.65 -0.36 3.27 0.55 2.72

Jun-16 3.84 1.45 2.18 -0.21 0.22 0.78 -0.56 3.63 0.68 2.95

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -10.9% -7.8% -18.9% -1.0% -18.6% -11.4% 8.8%

% of Total1 100.0% 100.0% 5.6% 53.6% 94.4% 46.4%

Finished Products Crude Oil Petrol.

Gasoline Distil. Resid. Total1 Total Total2

2013 16.5 16.2 2.4 52.4 98.9 151.3

2014 18.9 18.1 3.0 59.4 105.9 165.3

2015 16.7 15.3 3.2 52.1 110.4 162.4

2Q 2015 15.1 13.6 1.8 45.7 102.0 147.7

3Q 2015 15.7 12.6 1.8 46.5 103.9 150.4

4Q 2015 16.7 15.3 3.2 52.1 110.4 162.4

1Q 2016 16.0 16.7 2.0 51.0 76.7 127.7

2Q 2016 14.1 11.9 2.3 43.8 71.8 115.6

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -7.0% -12.3% 29.1% -4.2% -29.6% -21.8%

Jun-15 15.1 13.6 1.8 45.7 102.0 147.7

Jul-15 14.5 13.7 2.1 44.6 109.2 153.8

Aug-15 15.2 14.0 1.9 47.5 109.3 156.8

Sep-15 15.7 12.6 1.8 46.5 103.9 150.4

Oct-15 14.9 12.3 2.5 45.5 109.3 154.8

Nov-15 15.0 13.8 2.5 47.1 110.5 157.6

Dec-15 16.7 15.3 3.2 52.1 110.4 162.4

Jan-16 16.5 16.4 2.8 52.2 107.9 160.1

Feb-16 15.8 16.2 2.2 50.5 107.4 157.9

Mar-16 16.0 16.7 2.0 51.0 76.7 127.7

Apr-16 14.5 16.2 2.3 48.9 74.8 123.7

May-16 12.8 12.1 2.4 42.2 69.9 112.1

Jun-16 14.1 11.9 2.3 43.8 71.8 115.6

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -7.0% -12.3% 29.1% -4.2% -29.6% -21.8%

Finished Products

Gasoline Distil. Resid. Total1

2013 0.77 0.56 0.05 1.84

2014 0.78 0.56 0.07 1.86

2015 0.77 0.55 0.05 1.80

2Q 2015 0.78 0.55 0.04 1.78

3Q 2015 0.80 0.56 0.03 1.86

4Q 2015 0.76 0.53 0.04 1.77

1Q 2016 0.78 0.50 0.06 1.74

2Q 2016 0.81 0.54 0.04 1.81

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.7% -2.0% -4.4% 1.6%

Jun-15 0.82 0.55 0.04 1.86

Jul-15 0.82 0.52 0.03 1.88

Aug-15 0.82 0.56 0.04 1.86

Sep-15 0.77 0.60 0.03 1.84

Oct-15 0.77 0.56 0.05 1.85

Nov-15 0.76 0.51 0.04 1.75

Dec-15 0.74 0.52 0.05 1.72

Jan-16 0.80 0.50 0.06 1.75

Feb-16 0.76 0.53 0.06 1.74

Mar-16 0.78 0.48 0.05 1.71

Apr-16 0.78 0.54 0.05 1.74

May-16 0.81 0.57 0.04 1.81

Jun-16 0.85 0.53 0.03 1.87

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.1% -4.2% -96.7% 0.4%


D4: Canada Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day)

Note: Total includes small amounts of production from Manitoba and Ontario. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

D5: Canada Petroleum Imports by Source (thousand barrels per day)

Notes: 1. Includes all non-OPEC production. 2. Includes production by the other seven OPEC members. 3. As of most recent month. Sources: Statistics Canada’s

Energy Statistics Handbook.

Non-OPEC OPEC Imports

Mexico U.S. U.K. Norway Total1 Algeria Nigeria S. Arabia Venez. Total2 P. Gulf Total

2013 24 15 36 55 466 71 47 16 2 177 57 643

2014 17 164 3 12 453 38 27 0 1 90 23 543

2015 0 256 4 8 496 45 26 0 0 71 0 567

2Q 2015 0 344 15 11 592 12 21 0 0 33 0 625

3Q 2015 0 191 0 3 461 74 42 0 0 116 0 577

4Q 2015 0 187 1 11 446 33 10 0 0 43 0 489

1Q 2016 0 103 12 7 460 34 0 0 0 34 0 493

2Q 2016 0 258 2 19 521 120 0 0 0 120 0 642

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.0% -25.0% -85.9% 61.6% -12.0% 891.3% -100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 264.8% 0.0% 2.6%

Jun-15 0 378 0 21 561 36 33 0 0 70 0 631

Jul-15 0 321 0 0 481 66 61 0 0 127 0 608

Aug-15 0 254 0 0 469 87 35 0 0 122 0 590

Sep-15 0 0 0 9 434 69 29 0 0 98 0 532

Oct-15 0 332 0 10 388 33 30 0 0 63 0 451

Nov-15 0 229 3 23 507 67 0 0 0 67 0 574

Dec-15 0 0 0 0 443 0 0 0 0 0 0 443

Jan-16 0 0 0 0 452 65 0 0 0 65 0 518

Feb-16 0 207 22 22 377 36 0 0 0 36 0 413

Mar-16 0 100 14 0 550 0 0 0 0 0 0 550

Apr-16 0 257 6 30 504 133 0 0 0 133 0 637

May-16 0 236 0 0 555 125 0 0 0 125 0 681

Jun-16 0 280 0 25 505 103 0 0 0 103 0 608

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.0% 27916.1% #DIV/0! 21.2% -10.0% 182.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 47.5% 0.0% -3.6%

% of Total3 0.0% 46.1% 0.0% 4.2% 83.1% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.9% 0.0% 100.0%

Major Producers Canada Petroleum Type

Alta. Sask. B.C. N.W.T. Atlantic Total1 Light SCO Heavy Bitumen NGLs

2013 2.63 0.47 0.04 0.01 0.23 3.46 0.91 0.94 0.45 0.98 0.15

2014 2.91 0.51 0.05 0.01 0.22 3.76 0.94 0.95 0.46 1.21 0.22

2015 3.09 0.53 0.05 0.01 0.17 3.91 0.85 0.98 0.45 1.39 0.22

2Q 2015 2.81 0.51 0.05 0.01 0.15 3.61 0.83 0.81 0.45 1.28 0.21

3Q 2015 3.17 0.52 0.05 0.01 0.14 3.95 0.79 1.02 0.45 1.46 0.22

4Q 2015 3.19 0.52 0.06 0.01 0.17 4.00 0.82 0.98 0.44 1.51 0.25

1Q 2016 3.21 0.47 0.07 0.01 0.21 4.02 0.83 1.04 0.40 1.48 0.26

2Q 2016 2.55 0.45 0.06 0.01 0.18 3.30 0.75 0.52 0.40 1.37 0.26

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -9.3% -12.6% 13.9% -5.0% 18.6% -8.7% -9.6% -36.5% -11.6% 6.7% 20.6%

Jun-15 2.92 0.50 0.05 0.01 0.14 3.67 0.79 0.93 0.44 1.30 0.21

Jul-15 3.28 0.52 0.05 0.00 0.14 4.04 0.80 1.09 0.45 1.49 0.21

Aug-15 3.35 0.54 0.05 0.01 0.15 4.16 0.81 1.16 0.46 1.50 0.21

Sep-15 2.89 0.51 0.05 0.01 0.13 3.65 0.78 0.81 0.44 1.38 0.23

Oct-15 3.08 0.53 0.06 0.01 0.09 3.83 0.75 0.87 0.45 1.51 0.24

Nov-15 3.22 0.51 0.06 0.01 0.20 4.05 0.85 1.04 0.44 1.47 0.25

Dec-15 3.28 0.53 0.05 0.01 0.21 4.13 0.87 1.02 0.44 1.54 0.26

Jan-16 3.28 0.47 0.07 0.01 0.21 4.09 0.84 1.05 0.41 1.52 0.26

Feb-16 3.20 0.47 0.07 0.01 0.21 4.02 0.84 1.08 0.40 1.43 0.26

Mar-16 3.15 0.47 0.07 0.01 0.20 3.95 0.82 0.99 0.40 1.49 0.26

Apr-16 2.84 0.46 0.06 0.01 0.19 3.61 0.79 0.61 0.39 1.55 0.26

May-16 2.22 0.45 0.06 0.01 0.20 2.99 0.77 0.35 0.39 1.22 0.25

Jun-16 2.58 0.45 0.06 0.01 0.15 3.29 0.70 0.59 0.40 1.34 0.26

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -11.5% -10.4% 18.4% -11.4% 5.9% -10.4% -12.0% -36.7% -8.3% 3.2% 24.8%


E1: World Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs)

Notes: 1. Does not include active rigs in the Former Soviet Union and onshore rigs in China. 2. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.

E2: North American Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs)

Notes: 1. Excluding Mexico. 2. Includes drilling on inland waterways. 3. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.


N. A. Europe Asia-Pac Total Asia Non-Asia Total1 P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total Total1

2013 2,221 117 27 2,365 219 368 586 288 195 483 3,435

2014 2,323 122 26 2,472 228 371 598 318 185 503 3,573

2015 1,222 96 17 1,336 202 296 498 348 156 503 2,337

3Q 2015 1,098 91 16 1,205 201 193 394 436 153 589 2,187

4Q 2015 967 90 15 1,072 191 307 498 320 143 463 2,033

1Q 2016 749 87 10 847 176 256 432 309 141 451 1,729

2Q 2016 491 81 6 578 178 229 407 293 134 427 1,412

3Q 2016 626 80 5 711 185 224 410 296 121 417 1,538

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -43.0% -11.7% -70.2% -41.0% -7.8% 16.4% 4.1% -32.1% -20.9% -29.2% -29.7%

Sep-15 1,070 92 16 1,178 202 -67 135 703 155 858 2,171

Oct-15 1,013 90 16 1,119 197 311 508 311 148 459 2,086

Nov-15 976 87 14 1,077 194 310 504 325 141 466 2,047

Dec-15 913 92 16 1,021 182 299 481 325 139 464 1,966

Jan-16 887 88 14 989 179 268 447 314 139 453 1,889

Feb-16 769 90 9 868 173 256 429 311 140 451 1,748

Mar-16 592 83 8 683 175 244 419 303 145 448 1,550

Apr-16 501 79 6 586 173 229 402 293 143 436 1,424

May-16 471 84 7 562 183 232 415 294 133 427 1,404

Jun-16 500 81 4 585 178 226 404 292 126 418 1,407

Jul-16 567 84 4 655 182 230 412 295 120 415 1,482

Aug-16 636 81 6 723 188 220 408 292 124 416 1,547

Sep-16 675 76 4 755 186 223 409 300 120 420 1,584

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -37.0% -17.4% -75.0% -35.9% -7.9% -432.8% 203.0% -57.3% -22.6% -51.0% -27.1%

% of Total2 42.6% 4.8% 0.3% 47.7% 11.7% 14.1% 25.8% 18.9% 7.6% 26.5% 100.0%

United States Canada North America1

East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West Total Land2 Offshore Total Oil Gas Total

2013 89 420 1,049 153 50 1,761 1,705 56 351 1,728 384 2,112

2014 86 453 1,114 156 53 1,861 1,804 57 376 1,905 332 2,238

2015 64 248 395 216 65 977 941 35 193 944 226 1,170

3Q 2015 58 214 203 310 97 866 833 32 191 849 208 1,056

4Q 2015 54 187 45 378 111 754 724 29 174 741 187 928

1Q 2016 37 132 32 279 98 546 520 27 163 600 109 709

2Q 2016 32 104 27 206 72 420 397 24 49 382 87 469

3Q 2016 40 104 27 251 73 480 461 18 122 514 87 601

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -30.6% -51.3% -86.5% -19.2% -24.5% -44.6% -44.6% -43.4% -36.2% -39.4% -58.1% -43.1%

Sep-15 54 209 52 421 135 848 816 32 183 833 198 1,031

Oct-15 48 194 50 402 117 791 758 33 184 782 193 975

Nov-15 58 194 47 378 107 760 729 31 178 744 194 938

Dec-15 56 174 37 355 108 711 686 24 160 697 174 871

Jan-16 48 155 34 332 107 643 615 28 190 700 133 833

Feb-16 35 123 29 266 98 519 493 26 211 628 102 730

Mar-16 28 119 32 240 88 477 451 27 88 472 93 565

Apr-16 31 109 29 215 75 437 411 26 41 390 88 478

May-16 31 103 27 201 70 407 384 24 42 363 86 449

Jun-16 35 100 25 203 72 417 396 21 63 394 86 480

Jul-16 37 102 27 229 72 449 429 20 95 456 88 544

Aug-16 40 104 27 256 71 481 464 17 129 528 82 610

Sep-16 43 107 28 267 76 509 491 18 141 559 91 650

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -20.4% -48.8% -46.2% -36.6% -43.7% -40.0% -39.9% -43.8% -23.0% -32.9% -54.0% -37.0%

% of Total3 6.6% 16.5% 4.3% 41.1% 11.7% 78.3% 75.5% 2.8% 21.7% 86.0% 14.0% 100.0%


Geographical Specifications

1. The World: OECD is comprised of countries from three regions: North America (Canada, Mexico, US); Europe (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republ ic,

Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak

Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK); and Asia-Pacific (Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea). OPEC is comprised of Persian Gulf (Iran,

Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates) and non-Persian Gulf countries (Algeria, Indonesia, Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela). Non-OECD is

comprised of countries from three regions: Former Soviet Union (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kirghizstan, Moldova, Russia,

Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan); Asia (including non-OECD

Oceania); and non-Asia (Africa, Middle East, Latin America, and non-

OECD Europe). 2. United States: East (PADD I) – New England

(Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island,

Vermont); Central Atlantic (Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York,

Pennsylvania, and the District of Columbia) and Lower Atlantic (Florida,

Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia). Mid

-West (PADD II) – Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan,

Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South

Dakota, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. South-Central (PADD III) – Alabama,

Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico and Texas. North-West

(PADD IV) – Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming. West

(PADD V) – Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon,

Washington.

3. Canada: East is comprised of Ontario, Manitoba, Quebec and the

Maritime provinces (New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova

Scotia, and Prince Edward Island). West is comprised of Alberta, British

Columbia, Saskatchewan and the northern territories (NorthWest

Territories, Nunavuut, and Yukon).

Additional Notes

1. Petroleum and oil refer to crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs),

whereas crude oil refers to its namesake and field condensates.

Condensates derived from natural gas processing plants are classified as

NGLs. 2. The spot price is for immediate delivery of crude oil or refined

products at a specific location. Spot transactions are generally on a cargo

by cargo basis. In contrast, a futures price is for delivery of a specified

quantity of a commodity at a specified time and place in the future. 3.

Crude oil sold Free-On-Board (FOB) is made available to the buyer at the

loading port at a particular time, with transportation and insurance the

responsibility of the buyer. Crude oil sold Cost-Insurance-Freight (CIF) is

priced at a major destination point, with the seller responsible for the

transportation and insurance to that point. A “Delivered” transaction is

similar to a CIF transaction, except the buyer in the former pays based on the quantity and quality ascertained at the unloading port, whereas in a CIF

transaction, the buyer accepts the quantity and quality as determined at the loading port. 4. Processing gain is the volume of which refinery output is

greater than crude oil inputs. The difference is due to the processing of crude oil products, which in total have a lower specific gravity than crude oil. 5.

Unaccounted for crude oil reconciles the difference between crude input to refineries and the sum of domestic production, net imports/exports, stock

changes and documented losses (in the U.S.). 6. Totals may not equal the sum of their parts in the statistical tables due to rounding.

Crude Stream

Producing

Country or

Region

API

Gravity

(@60° F)

Sulfur

Content

(%)

BBLs/Metric

Tonne

Tapis Blend Malaysia 44 0.1 7.910

Ekofisk Blend Norway 43 0.2 7.773

WTI Texas 40 0.3 7.640

GCS Gulf of Mexico 40 0.3 7.640

Oklahoma Sweet Oklahoma 40 0.3 7.640

Kansas Sweet Kansas 40 0.4 7.640

Wyoming Sweet Wyoming 40 0.2 7.640

ELS Alberta 40 0.5 7.640

Brent Blend United kingdom 38 0.8 7.551

Bonny Light Nigeria 37 0.1 7.506

Oman Blend Oman 36 0.8 7.462

Arabian Light Saudi Arabia 34 1.8 7.373

Minas Indonesia 34 0.1 7.373

Isthmus Mexico 34 1.5 7.373

Michigan Sour Michigan 34 1.7 7.373

WTS Texas 33 1.7 7.328

Urals Russia 32 1.7 7.284

Tia Juana Light Venezuela 32 1.2 7.284

Dubai U.A.E. 31 1.7 7.239

Lost Hills California 30 0.6 7.194

Cano Limon Colombia 28 0.6 7.105

Arabian Heavy Saudi Arabia 27 2.8 7.061

ANS Alaska 27 1.1 7.061

Oriente Ecuador 25 1.4 6.971

Hardisty Heavy Alberta 25 2.1 6.971

Maya Mexico 22 3.3 6.838

Kern River California 13 1.0 6.436

Crude Oil Qualities

For more information, please contact Dinara Millington at [email protected]. Canadian Energy Research Institute 150, 3512 – 33 Street NW Calgary, AB T2L 2A6

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