september, 2015 the road to optimization · september, 2015 the road to optimization jack levis –...
TRANSCRIPT
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September, 2015The Road to OptimizationJack Levis – Senior Director of Process Management
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Challenges
3
• Increased B to C shipments– Less Density
(Pcs per Stop & Geographic)• Increased demand for
personalization• 55,000 well compensated drivers
Operations Technology Has Been Key in Meeting Challenges
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Basic Facts
Big savings come from attention to detail
1 mile is worth $50M*
1 minute is worth $14.6M*
1 minute of idle time is worth $515K**
Note: Figures are per driver per day across the US for a year* Small Package P/U and Delivery drivers** Small Package P/U and Delivery, Freight and Tractor / Trailer drivers
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Analytics
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Research shows a hierarchy of impact through the use of analytics
70%
30%
16%
3%
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Chasing Big Data
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Descriptive Analytics
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Delivery Information Acquisition Device (DIAD)
DIAD I1990
DIAD II1993
DIAD III1999
DIAD IV2004
DIAD V2011
UPS has been utilizing Big Data for over 20 years
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Telematics
Telematics provides additional sources of data
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Integrated DataAllows for Diverse Usage
Visibility on primary and behavioral characteristics that affect fuel consumption
Through GPS, DIAD, and Sensor Devices (Seatbelt, Bulkhead Door, and Reverse), a driver’s driving habits can be monitored and areas of improvement can be displayed visually on maps.
Dispatch Planning process may be enhanced and simplified through “Work Area” Concept. Dispatch planning & address validation processes may be enhanced and simplified through GPS data.
Combining GPS and DIAD datadisplayed on maps, allows us to monitor and analyze daily driver travel paths and highlight excess miles and dispatch inefficiencies.
Using GPS, DIAD, and Map data, has allowed us to enhance, automate and simplify several steps in On-Road time study and work measurement processes.
Vehicle Diagnostics Data, Fault Codes, and Usage Cycles can be used to anticipate part failure and predict vehicle breakdowns.
1. Automotive 2. Safety 3. Dispatch Planning 4. On-Road Performance 5. Work Measurement
Merging Multiple Data SourcesEngine Data GPS Data Sensor
DataDIAD Data Map Data
Appl
icat
ion
Area
s
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Descriptive AnalyticsAnalysis time reduced from 9 hours to 45 minutes
Seat Belt UsageEngine Idling
Satellite ContextBacking
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Combined information about each shipment to analyze service or
cost deficiencies
Descriptive / Diagnostic Analytics Service Improvement
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0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
664463664452664049664034663547663502663481663314662783661578140120134425134416134404134370134356
August 28 - Sep 1
Engine Speed to Road Speed - MBENZ - Roswell
6 8 10 12 14battery voltage
655694655692655691655689655444655157655146655143655141136118136116136111130079
August 28 - Sep 1
Battery Voltage - T444E - 1995 - 1996 - Oregon Ave.
1020
3040
50
01 Oct 06 01 Nov 06 01 Dec 06 01 Jan 07date
avgofpercent engine load engload_ucl
Percent Engine Load: Vehicle 131370
50 100 150 200 250engine coolant temperature
176865137939137434137431136215135874135613135608135566135437135435132722132688131377131373131371131370131343131337131332131330131307131304130659130506115903115901107441
5/21 - 5/25
Coolant Temperature
910
1112
1314
batte
ry v
olta
ge
21 May 07 22 May 07 23 May 07 24 May 07 25 May 07dtdatetime
battery voltage battery voltage
5/21-5/25
138025
910
1112
1314
batte
ry v
olta
ge
21 May 07 22 May 07 23 May 07 24 May 07 25 May 07dtdatetime
battery voltage battery voltage
5/21-5/25
655675
Voltage Draw
Voltage Recovery
Hea
lthy
Sus
pect
910
1112
1314
batte
ry v
olta
ge
21 May 07 22 May 07 23 May 07 24 May 07 25 May 07dtdatetime
battery voltage battery voltage
5/21-5/25
138025
910
1112
1314
batte
ry v
olta
ge
21 May 07 22 May 07 23 May 07 24 May 07 25 May 07dtdatetime
battery voltage battery voltage
5/21-5/25
655675
Voltage Draw
Voltage Recovery
Hea
lthy
Sus
pect
Diagnostic Analytics Fleet Information
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Descriptive AnalyticsLooking at Yesterday Limits Ability to Affect Change
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Predictive Analytics
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10- 20510- 245 10- 145
10- 005
10- 14010- 20010- 320
10- 240
10- 32510- 36510- 45510- 405
10- 450 10- 600 10- 40010- 360
1118
To reduce driver time and miles, packages are loaded in a general order of delivery
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UPS Data Infrastructure
Customer
Address(USPS)
Geography(Map)
UPS Proprietary
Regulatory
GPS
Vehicle
Service
Breakthrough Change
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Simplification through Package Level Detail (PLD)
UPS Smart Labels act as a “trip ticket” to carry packages through the network and the final mile
ABC Company2775 Chestnut Run RoadSuite 242York Pa 17402 - 2558
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Delivery Forecasting and Planning
Each package planned on the right vehicle for the right day
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Changing the DIAD from an Acquisition device to a driver Assistant for making better decisions
Address Information
TasksNumber of Packages
Shelf / Load Location
Additional Activity(COD, signature, etc.)
Commit Time
Local Time
Enhanced DIAD Download (EDD)
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Street # Stree Adult Signature Required
3924 PLANDOME RD
------------------------------------------
Col Amt Ship # ID# Remark
#000000 675 CAL
Changing the DIAD from an Acquisition device to a driver Assistant for making better decisions
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Changing the DIAD from an Acquisition device to a driver Assistant for making better decisions
Park at Dock OnlyMailroom
Check in with SecurityUse freight elevator
No Indirect/Reroute/LA
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Proprietary Geographic Information
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Proprietary Geographic Information
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250 Million Global Data Points
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Smart Stop
Improving ServiceEvery delivery at the right location
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Real-time monitoring and adjustment (ODSe)
Efficiently serve the customer by making decisions based on where resources will be
CurrentLocation
CompletedWork
RemainingWork
CurrentLocation
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Real Time Request Execution
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Devices no longer only look backwardEach scan provides a customer connection
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Virtual and Physical Network LinkageAllows New Products
• Delivery Alerts• Delivery Planner • Reschedule Delivery • Hold for Will Call• Authorize Shipment Release • "Leave at" Instructions (Driver Instructions) • Leave with Neighbor• Deliver to a UPS Store®
• Deliver to Another Address• Approx. delivery time• Confirmed Delivery Window (2-hour)
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Real time final mile delivery decisions
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The Impact (so far…)
85 million miles driven reduced yearly
8 million gallons of fuel reduced
85,000 metric tons of emissions reduced
Real world resultsE + I < E
95% reduction in loader training time
Highest service levels in
history
First of their kind product offerings
>99.9% seatbelt usage 8 Billion fewer manual entries by drivers
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Prescriptive Analytics
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OperationsTechnology Foundation
UPS Data Model DIAD Telematics
Analysis Tools Advanced Algorithms
Customized Map Data
ORION builds upon UPS’s rich technology foundation
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ORION “sorts the list” from a General order to a Specific order for the day’s specific conditions
• “Optimal” delivery / pickup order accounts for:‒ Service commitments
‒ Individual customer needs
‒ Business rules
• Implementable cost based decisions balancing all rules and constraints
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ORION
<#>
“This initiative, called ORION (On-Road Integrated Optimization and Navigation) is arguably the world's largest operations research project.”
Thomas H. DavenportBig Data in Big Companies
Recognized Technology Innovation
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ORION
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Why is this a breakthrough?Why is this so hard?
Approximate age of the Earth (in Seconds):145,065,600,000,000,000
Number of ways to deliver 120 stops:6,689,502,913,449,135,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
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Demonstrating ComplexityThe ORION Test
What is the most cost effective way to serve these customers?
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Which route has fewer miles?
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Can David Pogue beat ORION?
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Business rules add additional complexity
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ORIONDavid
Subtle differences can mean large savings
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Sustained Gains at Scale
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Sustained Gains at Scale
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000Sustained Gains at Scale
$300M to $400M(7 to 8 Miles per Driver)
100M miles / year
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100Mmiles driven
reduced yearly
100Kmetric tons of
emissions reduced
10Mgallons of fuel
reduced
saved annually$300M - $400M
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Moving from Knowledge to Wisdom and beyond
Average nearly 20 years of service
• ORION showed new ways to deliver area
• Mileage reduction
• Real time optimization– Clairvoyance
• Strong management and metrics required
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<#>
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Best Practices
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Best Practices
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• Embrace Change Management• Communicate, Educate… Early and Often• Change conversations!!!
• Build Analytics into the process• Understand / mitigate data limitations• Create new leading indicator metrics• Ensure the right skills are in place
Achieving gains means changing behavior
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Enriched map data adds to UPS’ robust data infrastructure
Accurate Mapping InformationUpgrades UPS’ Data
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Enriched map data adds to UPS’ robust data infrastructure
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Enriched map data adds to UPS’ robust data infrastructure
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Over 1,500 usersMore than 6 hours of detailed education
ORION OnlineKnowledge Management
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Achieving gains means changing behavior
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9/25
/201
3
Degree in Geek
Mathlete
Suit-Able
Curiouser and Curiouser
Agile and Adaptive
Problem Solving Prowess
Insight Whisper
Quantastic
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Analytics Maturity ModelAnalytics Certification Continuing Education
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Enhanced DIAD Download (EDD)
Changing the DIAD from an Acquisition device to a driver Assistant for making better decisions
Number of Packages
Shelf Location
Additional Activity(COD, signature, etc.)
Commit Time
Address Information
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Keeping our promise to the customer Enabling more services
Street # Stree Adult Signature Required
3924 PLANDOME RD
------------------------------------------
1 Col Amt Ship # ID# Remark
1 #000000 675 CAL
Edit Dup Ship#<6 PreRec Ovrride
PkgInfo NonDel Notes Deliver
Park at Dock OnlyMailroom
Check in with SecurityUse freight elevator
No Indirect/Reroute/LA
Edit Dup Ship#<6 PreRec Ovrride
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Smart Stop
Improving ServiceEvery delivery at the right location
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Real-time Request Execution
Finding a “needle in a 22M package haystack”Each scan provides a customer connection
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Real time final mile delivery decisions
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ORION “sorts the list” from a General order to a Specific order for the day’s specific conditions
• “Optimal” delivery / pickup order accounts for:‒ Service commitments
‒ Individual customer needs
‒ Business rules
• Implementable cost based decisions balancing all rules and constraints