september 2013
TRANSCRIPT
Economic Indicators:
An Update for the 7 Rivers Region
This event is being streamed via the internet to a few small corners of the world…
Warning:
The views expressed today are my own. They do not reflect the views of the sponsors, my employer, or probably anyone else, and if you don’t like them you can blame my mother for the way she raised me.
Disclaimer:
April 2002
November
2002
April 2003
October
2003
April 2004
February 2005
March 2006
November
2006
April 2007***
February 2008***
August 2008***
December
2008***
February 2009***
July
2009***
February 2010***
August 2010***
April 2011***
August 2011***
Febraury 2012***
August 2012***
April 2013***
August 2013***
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110 7 Rivers Consumer Sentiment
*** Survey moves to web
7 Rivers
National
Reference Points MatterANCHORS AWAY
Jan-98 Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07 Jan-10 Jan-1380.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
220.0
240.0 Case-Shiller Index of Home Prices
Phoenix
Minneapolis
7 Rivers Region
Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-120.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
9.0
10.5
12.0
Unemployment Rates
La CrosseMSA
WI
US
THE FEDERAL RESERVEPERFORMANCE AND CHALLENGES
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6% Change in GDP since Q1 2008 US
France
Germany
Spain
Italy
Explicit 2% Target Announced
UncertaintyELIMINATING POLICY UNCERTAINTY
CommunicationPOLICY TRANSPARENCY
$0.0
$500,000.0
$1,000,000.0
$1,500,000.0
$2,000,000.0
$2,500,000.0
$3,000,000.0
$3,500,000.0
$4,000,000.0
Fed Agency Debt Mortgage-Backed Securities Purch
Liquidity to Key Credit Markets
Lending to Financial Institutions
Long Term Treasury Purchases
Traditional Security Holdings
Tri
llio
ns
1. I decide to build.
2. Bernanke decides to talk “taper”
“
”
If employment & prices are strong,We can give up QE before long,So we're tapering it,But just by a bit,In case we turn out to be wrong.
FRIDAY, AUGUST 16, 2013
Advance Draft of Next FOMC Statement from:
Dr. Goose (www.limericksecon.com)
$0.0
$500,000.0
$1,000,000.0
$1,500,000.0
$2,000,000.0
$2,500,000.0
$3,000,000.0
$3,500,000.0
$4,000,000.0
Fed Agency Debt Mortgage-Backed Securities Purch
Liquidity to Key Credit Markets
Lending to Financial Institutions
Long Term Treasury Purchases
Traditional Security Holdings
Tri
llio
ns
Q&A with Narayana KocherlakotaPRESIDENT FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF MINNEAPOLIS
“
”
It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and money system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning
HENRY FORD
“
”
local community bankers…two tiers of regulatory oversight ?
REGULATORY OVERSIGHT
“
”
When will the failure to confront spending issues overcome the ability of the Fed to keep our economy in balance?FED POWER
“
”
Where are we trying to “get back” to with current Fed policy?
FED POLICY
“
”
Has the market overreacted to “tapering” talk?
EXIT
“
”
How long is the Fed likely to continue its low interest rate policy?
EXIT
THANKS.PLEASE FILL OUT YOUR EVALUATIONS