september 12, 2016 memorandum to: interested...

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September 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FR: DAVID FLAHERTY, MAGELLAN STRATEGIES RE: COLORADO 2016 U.S. SENATE VOTER OPINION SURVEY Magellan Strategies today released the results of a live landline and cell phone survey of 500 likely 2016 general election voters in Colorado. The interviews were conducted August 29 th to 31 st and the survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95 percent confidence interval. Survey Findings Looking at the U.S. Senate race in Colorado, our survey finds Michael Bennet leading Darryl Glenn by 10 points, 48% to 38% respectively. Four percent of voters are supporting Libertarian candidate Lily Tang Williams, 3% support Green Party candidate Arn Menconi, and 7% of voters are undecided. Reviewing the survey data by party, we see that Michael Bennet holds a significant lead among Unaffiliated voters, 46% to 28%, while also holding the support of a very significant portion of his own party’s voters (90%). Senator Bennet also leads convincingly among voters age 18-34 (49% to 28%) and voters age 35-44 (52% to 37%). Darryl Glenn holds a large lead over Senator Bennet among married men (53% to 36%), and also leads among voters age 45-54 (45% to 40%). U.S. Senate Ballot Test Results by Voter Subgroup All Voters Men Wom 18- 34 35- 44 45- 54 55- 64 65+ Dem Rep Unaf Bennet 48% 45% 51% 49% 52% 40% 52% 48% 90% 9% 46% Glenn 38% 42% 35% 28% 37% 45% 40% 43% 5% 82% 28% Williams 4% 4% 3% 6% 1% 7% 1% 1% 1% 3% 6% Menconi 3% 5% 1% 7% 4% 1% 2% 0% 2% 1% 4% Undecided 7% 4% 10% 10% 6% 7% 5% 7% 2% 5% 16% Summary This survey finds Senator Michael Bennet leading Darryl Glenn by 10 points, a sizable advantage which, if it holds, would be the largest margin of victory in a Colorado U.S. Senate race in quite some time. If the undecided voters break for Darryl Glenn in the next month, this could become a tight race, although it is clear that Senator Bennet has run a strong campaign thus far and that the dynamics of this race will have to shift in order for Darryl Glenn to become competitive.

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Page 1: September 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED …magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/...September 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FR: DAVID FLAHERTY, MAGELLAN

September 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FR: DAVID FLAHERTY, MAGELLAN STRATEGIES RE: COLORADO 2016 U.S. SENATE VOTER OPINION SURVEY Magellan Strategies today released the results of a live landline and cell phone survey of 500 likely 2016 general election voters in Colorado. The interviews were conducted August 29th to 31st and the survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95 percent confidence interval. Survey Findings Looking at the U.S. Senate race in Colorado, our survey finds Michael Bennet leading Darryl Glenn by 10 points, 48% to 38% respectively. Four percent of voters are supporting Libertarian candidate Lily Tang Williams, 3% support Green Party candidate Arn Menconi, and 7% of voters are undecided. Reviewing the survey data by party, we see that Michael Bennet holds a significant lead among Unaffiliated voters, 46% to 28%, while also holding the support of a very significant portion of his own party’s voters (90%). Senator Bennet also leads convincingly among voters age 18-34 (49% to 28%) and voters age 35-44 (52% to 37%). Darryl Glenn holds a large lead over Senator Bennet among married men (53% to 36%), and also leads among voters age 45-54 (45% to 40%). U.S. Senate Ballot Test Results by Voter Subgroup All

Voters

Men

Wom 18- 34

35- 44

45- 54

55- 64

65+

Dem

Rep

Unaf

Bennet 48% 45% 51% 49% 52% 40% 52% 48% 90% 9% 46% Glenn 38% 42% 35% 28% 37% 45% 40% 43% 5% 82% 28% Williams 4% 4% 3% 6% 1% 7% 1% 1% 1% 3% 6% Menconi 3% 5% 1% 7% 4% 1% 2% 0% 2% 1% 4% Undecided 7% 4% 10% 10% 6% 7% 5% 7% 2% 5% 16%

Summary This survey finds Senator Michael Bennet leading Darryl Glenn by 10 points, a sizable advantage which, if it holds, would be the largest margin of victory in a Colorado U.S. Senate race in quite some time. If the undecided voters break for Darryl Glenn in the next month, this could become a tight race, although it is clear that Senator Bennet has run a strong campaign thus far and that the dynamics of this race will have to shift in order for Darryl Glenn to become competitive.

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Magellan Strategies 2016 Colorado U.S. Senate Survey Summary Field Dates: August 29th to 31st, 2016, 500n, MoE +/- 4.38%

Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027

www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585

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Survey Weighting Decisions The survey results are weighted to reflect the age, gender, and party turnout demographics of the 2012 Presidential election in Colorado. While we do think the 2016 voter turnout demographics in Colorado could be different than they were in 2012, we think it is too early to measure a drop in voter turnout intensity by party or age group. We also believe there are strong arguments to be made that Donald Trump’s candidacy could depress some Republican voters from casting a ballot. However, there is also a plausible argument to be made that Hillary Clinton’s campaign is struggling to motivate and inspire some Democrats and younger voters to cast a ballot. The truth is, until ballots are mailed out on October 17th, we will not know if there is a measurable drop in voter turnout by age group or party. Survey Sample The survey sample was randomly drawn from a Colorado voter file among households containing at least one registered voter. The survey topline and crosstab results are included in this document. Any questions regarding this survey or our methodology should be directed to David Flaherty. He can be reached at 303-861-8585 or by email at [email protected]. Survey Commissioned By This survey was not commissioned or paid for by any issue committee, campaign, individual, or independent expenditure group. About Magellan Strategies Magellan Strategies offers a wide array of services to candidate campaigns, ballot issue campaigns, government relations firms, trade associations, and local and county governments. Our services include polling, survey research, focus groups, voter data mining, voter data analysis, and campaign consulting and management. Our offices are located in Louisville, Colorado. To learn more about our company please visit http://www.MagellanStrategies.com or call 303-861-8585.

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Magellan Strategies Colorado General Election Survey Topline Results Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the topline results for a 500n live survey of likely general election voters in the state of Colorado. The interviews were conducted August 29th – 31st, 2016. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95 percent confidence interval. This survey was weighted based upon previous general election demographics. T1. Are you registered to vote as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent voter? Republican ............................................................. 35% Democrat ............................................................... 34% Unaffiliated ........................................................... 30% Libertarian ................................................................ 1% Green Party ............................................................. 0%

T2. How likely are you to vote in the general election this November? Would you say you are extremely likely, very likely, somewhat likely or unlikely to vote? Extremely Likely ..................................................... 76% Very Likely ............................................................. 18% Somewhat Likely ...................................................... 6%

T3. If the election for the United State Senate were being held today, would you vote for Michael Bennet, the Democrat candidate, Darryl Glenn, the Republican candidate, Lily Tang Williams, the Libertarian candidate or Arn Menconi, the Green Party candidate? Bennet .................................................................... 48% Glenn ..................................................................... 38% Williams ................................................................... 4% Menconi ................................................................... 3% Some other candidate ............................................... 0% Undecided/Don’t know/Refused ............................... 7%

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Magellan ID#: COGEN-082916 Colorado General Election Survey Topline Results Field Dates: 8/29/16 – 8/31/16, MoE +/- 4.38%, 500n CONFIDENTIAL

Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027

www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585

2

T4. Are you married, widowed, separated, divorced, single and never been married, or unmarried and living with a partner? Married .................................................................. 61% Single never been married ...................................... 20% Divorced .................................................................. 9% Widowed ................................................................. 5% Unmarried, living with a partner ............................... 4% Separated ................................................................. 0% No opinion ............................................................... 1%

T5. Which of the following age groups applies to you? 18-34 ..................................................................... 23% 35-44 ..................................................................... 17% 45-54 ..................................................................... 19% 55-64 ..................................................................... 20% 65+ ........................................................................ 21% Refused ................................................................... 0%

T6. What is your racial or ethnic background? White ..................................................................... 79% Hispanic or Latino .................................................. 15% Black or African American ........................................ 4% Other ........................................................................ 2% Don’t Know or Refused ............................................ 0%

T7. Are you male or female? Female ................................................................... 52% Male ....................................................................... 48%

Survey Methodology This survey was conducted by live dialing both landline and cell phone sample. The sample used for this survey was randomly drawn from a state of Colorado voter file. The survey response data was weighted based upon previous general election demographics. The interviews were conducted on August 29th – 31st, 2016. Three attempts were made to interview each household in the sample. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95 percent confidence interval.

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Colorado General Election Survey, August 29th - 31st, 2016, 500N, 4.38% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 1-1 T1. Are you registered to vote in Colorado as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, registered with some other party, or are you not registered to vote? GENDER~MARITAL AGE REPUBLICANS DEMOCRATS INDEPENDENT ----------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------- ------------------------------- -------------------------------

TOTAL ---------

MEN

---------

MEN MARR

---------

MEN SING

---------

WOM

---------

WOM MARR

---------

WOM SING

---------

18-34

---------

35-44

---------

45-54

---------

55-64

---------

65 PLUS

---------

REP TOT

---------

REP MEN

---------

REP WOM

---------

DEM TOT

---------

DEM MEN

---------

DEM WOM

---------

IND TOT

---------

IND MEN

---------

IND WOM

---------

TOTAL

500 100.0

240 100.0

138 100.0

100 100.0

260 100.0

168 100.0

91 100.0

115 100.0

85 100.0

95 100.0

100 100.0

105 100.0

175 100.0

84 100.0

91 100.0

170 100.0

71 100.0

99 100.0

147 100.0

79 100.0

68 100.0

REPUBLICAN

175 35.0

84 34.8

61 44.4

22 22.0

91 35.2

68 40.3

23 25.7

30 26.2

22 26.2

40 41.7

39 38.9

44 42.0

175 100.0

84 100.0

91 100.0

DEMOCRAT

170 34.0

71 29.5

30 21.4

41 40.8

99 38.2

62 36.6

38 41.1

36 31.0

28 33.5

33 34.3

32 32.2

41 39.2

170 100.0

71 100.0

99 100.0

UNAFFILIATED

147 29.5

79 33.1

45 32.8

33 32.8

68 26.2

38 22.5

30 33.2

45 38.9

33 39.1

23 23.9

28 27.6

19 18.3

147 100.0

79 100.0

68 100.0

LIBERTARIAN

5 1.0

4 1.6

2 1.5

2 1.9

1 0.4

1 0.6

2 1.7

1 1.2

1 1.4

1 0.6

GREEN PARTY

3 0.5

3 1.0

3 2.5

3 2.2

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Colorado General Election Survey, August 29th - 31st, 2016, 500N, 4.38% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 1-2 T1. Are you registered to vote in Colorado as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, registered with some other party, or are you not registered to vote? RACE REGION MODE ------------------------------------------ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------

TOTAL

--------- WHIT

--------- HISP

--------- BLCK

--------- OTHR

--------- CD1

--------- CD2

--------- CD3

--------- CD4

--------- CD5

--------- CD6

--------- CD7

--------- LL

--------- CELL

---------

TOTAL

500 100.0

395 100.0

75 100.0

20 100.0

7 100.0

65 100.0

80 100.0

75 100.0

70 100.0

65 100.0

80 100.0

65 100.0

354 100.0

146 100.0

REPUBLICAN

175 35.0

151 38.2

21 28.4

2 20.3

20 30.6

22 27.4

32 42.5

30 42.9

20 30.2

25 31.0

27 41.3

139 39.2

36 24.8

DEMOCRAT

170 34.0

126 31.8

29 39.2

13 63.8

2 22.5

25 37.8

33 41.7

32 42.5

23 32.7

14 21.3

27 34.0

16 24.9

124 35.0

46 31.6

UNAFFILIATED

147 29.5

113 28.7

24 32.4

7 36.2

2 23.9

21 31.7

23 29.3

11 14.9

17 24.3

27 41.9

27 33.6

21 32.5

88 24.9

59 40.5

LIBERTARIAN

5 1.0

5 1.3

1 1.5

2 2.7

1 1.4

1 1.4

3 0.9

2 1.3

GREEN PARTY

3 0.5

3 33.3

3 3.8

3 1.7

Page 7: September 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED …magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/...September 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FR: DAVID FLAHERTY, MAGELLAN

Colorado General Election Survey, August 29th - 31st, 2016, 500N, 4.38% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 2-1 T2. How likely are you to vote in the general election this November for the State Legislature? Would you say you are extremely likely, very likely, somewhat likely or unlikely to vote? GENDER~MARITAL AGE REPUBLICANS DEMOCRATS INDEPENDENT ----------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------- ------------------------------- -------------------------------

TOTAL ---------

MEN

---------

MEN MARR

---------

MEN SING

---------

WOM

---------

WOM MARR

---------

WOM SING

---------

18-34

---------

35-44

---------

45-54

---------

55-64

---------

65 PLUS

---------

REP TOT

---------

REP MEN

---------

REP WOM

---------

DEM TOT

---------

DEM MEN

---------

DEM WOM

---------

IND TOT

---------

IND MEN

---------

IND WOM

---------

TOTAL

500 100.0

240 100.0

138 100.0

100 100.0

260 100.0

168 100.0

91 100.0

115 100.0

85 100.0

95 100.0

100 100.0

105 100.0

175 100.0

84 100.0

91 100.0

170 100.0

71 100.0

99 100.0

147 100.0

79 100.0

68 100.0

EXTREMELY LIKELY

380 76.0

181 75.4

108 78.5

71 70.8

199 76.5

135 80.4

63 69.3

89 77.6

70 82.8

71 74.7

66 65.9

83 79.4

136 77.8

60 71.9

76 83.1

134 78.9

55 77.9

79 79.7

104 70.5

61 77.4

43 62.5

VERY LIKELY

92 18.3

48 19.8

27 19.5

21 20.6

44 16.9

25 14.6

19 21.1

14 12.2

9 10.0

21 21.6

30 30.0

19 17.7

34 19.6

22 26.7

12 13.0

28 16.3

12 17.4

15 15.6

28 18.7

11 13.8

17 24.4

SOMEWHAT LIKELY

29 5.7

11 4.8

3 2.0

9 8.6

17 6.6

8 5.0

9 9.6

12 10.3

6 7.2

4 3.7

4 4.1

3 3.0

5 2.7

1 1.4

4 3.9

8 4.7

3 4.7

5 4.7

16 10.8

7 8.7

9 13.1

Page 8: September 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED …magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/...September 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FR: DAVID FLAHERTY, MAGELLAN

Colorado General Election Survey, August 29th - 31st, 2016, 500N, 4.38% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 2-2 T2. How likely are you to vote in the general election this November for the State Legislature? Would you say you are extremely likely, very likely, somewhat likely or unlikely to vote? RACE REGION MODE ------------------------------------------ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------

TOTAL

--------- WHIT

--------- HISP

--------- BLCK

--------- OTHR

--------- CD1

--------- CD2

--------- CD3

--------- CD4

--------- CD5

--------- CD6

--------- CD7

--------- LL

--------- CELL

---------

TOTAL

500 100.0

395 100.0

75 100.0

20 100.0

7 100.0

65 100.0

80 100.0

75 100.0

70 100.0

65 100.0

80 100.0

65 100.0

354 100.0

146 100.0

EXTREMELY LIKELY

380 76.0

317 80.3

42 56.2

13 63.2

6 79.1

51 77.8

69 86.8

59 78.1

56 80.6

44 67.9

53 66.2

48 73.3

261 73.9

118 80.8

VERY LIKELY

92 18.3

59 14.8

27 35.4

5 24.5

1 12.3

10 16.0

8 9.5

15 20.3

12 17.5

12 19.0

23 29.1

10 15.9

72 20.3

20 13.6

SOMEWHAT LIKELY

29 5.7

19 4.8

6 8.4

2 12.3

1 8.7

4 6.2

3 3.7

1 1.5

1 1.9

8 13.0

4 4.7

7 10.7

20 5.8

8 5.6

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Colorado General Election Survey, August 29th - 31st, 2016, 500N, 4.38% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 3-1 T3. If the election for the United States Senate were being held today, would you vote for Michael Bennet, the Democrat candidate, Darryl Glenn, the Republican candidate, Lily Tang Williams, the Libertarian candidate or Arn Menconi, the Green Party candidate? GENDER~MARITAL AGE REPUBLICANS DEMOCRATS INDEPENDENT ----------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------- ------------------------------- -------------------------------

TOTAL ---------

MEN

---------

MEN MARR

---------

MEN SING

---------

WOM

---------

WOM MARR

---------

WOM SING

---------

18-34

---------

35-44

---------

45-54

---------

55-64

---------

65 PLUS

---------

REP TOT

---------

REP MEN

---------

REP WOM

---------

DEM TOT

---------

DEM MEN

---------

DEM WOM

---------

IND TOT

---------

IND MEN

---------

IND WOM

---------

TOTAL

500 100.0

240 100.0

138 100.0

100 100.0

260 100.0

168 100.0

91 100.0

115 100.0

85 100.0

95 100.0

100 100.0

105 100.0

175 100.0

84 100.0

91 100.0

170 100.0

71 100.0

99 100.0

147 100.0

79 100.0

68 100.0

BENNET

240 48.0

109 45.4

49 35.6

59 58.3

131 50.5

83 49.2

48 52.8

56 48.6

44 51.6

38 39.8

52 52.4

50 47.7

16 9.0

3 3.0

13 14.5

153 90.3

65 91.8

89 89.2

68 46.3

39 49.0

29 43.2

GLENN

192 38.3

102 42.3

74 53.2

28 27.5

90 34.6

70 41.8

20 21.5

32 27.5

32 37.3

43 44.9

40 40.2

45 43.1

143 81.6

76 91.0

67 73.1

8 4.7

2 2.9

6 5.9

41 27.6

23 29.6

17 25.3

WILLIAMS

17 3.5

8 3.5

6 4.7

2 2.0

9 3.4

6 3.4

3 3.5

8 6.6

1 1.6

6 6.7

1 0.7

1 1.3

5 3.0

2 2.9

3 3.1

1 0.9

1 1.5

9 6.0

5 6.9

3 5.1

MENCONI

15 2.9

11 4.8

3 2.4

8 8.1

3 1.2

1 0.8

2 2.0

8 7.2

3 3.7

1 1.6

2 1.6

0.1

1 0.7

1 1.5

4 2.2

3 4.2

1 0.8

6 4.3

4 5.0

2 3.5

SOME OTHER CANDIDATE

1 0.1

1 0.3

1 0.4

0.1

0.1

1 0.6

0.1

1 0.4

1 0.8

UNDECIDED UNSURE REFUSED

36 7.2

9 3.8

5 3.7

4 4.0

27 10.3

8 4.9

18 20.2

11 10.0

5 5.8

7 7.0

5 5.1

8 7.3

10 5.6

1 1.6

8 9.2

3 2.0

1 1.1

3 2.6

23 15.4

7 8.9

16 23.0

Page 10: September 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED …magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/...September 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FR: DAVID FLAHERTY, MAGELLAN

Colorado General Election Survey, August 29th - 31st, 2016, 500N, 4.38% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 3-2 T3. If the election for the United States Senate were being held today, would you vote for Michael Bennet, the Democrat candidate, Darryl Glenn, the Republican candidate, Lily Tang Williams, the Libertarian candidate or Arn Menconi, the Green Party candidate? RACE REGION MODE ------------------------------------------ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------

TOTAL

--------- WHIT

--------- HISP

--------- BLCK

--------- OTHR

--------- CD1

--------- CD2

--------- CD3

--------- CD4

--------- CD5

--------- CD6

--------- CD7

--------- LL

--------- CELL

---------

TOTAL

500 100.0

395 100.0

75 100.0

20 100.0

7 100.0

65 100.0

80 100.0

75 100.0

70 100.0

65 100.0

80 100.0

65 100.0

354 100.0

146 100.0

BENNET

240 48.0

180 45.5

41 55.3

16 79.8

2 29.1

35 54.5

44 55.5

33 44.6

29 41.6

26 39.5

40 50.6

32 48.5

172 48.7

68 46.5

GLENN

192 38.3

159 40.3

29 39.1

2 22.3

19 29.2

25 31.5

34 45.5

36 51.2

25 38.1

26 32.9

26 40.4

148 41.8

44 29.8

WILLIAMS

17 3.5

14 3.5

2 2.3

1 6.5

4.8

3 4.2

2 2.8

3 3.4

3 3.6

5 7.6

2 2.9

10 2.9

7 4.8

MENCONI

15 2.9

12 3.0

3 33.3

5 8.1

2 2.4

0.1

3 5.0

4 5.1

3 0.7

12 8.2

SOME OTHER CANDIDATE

1 0.1

1 0.1

1 0.9

0.1

1 0.2

UNDECIDED UNSURE REFUSED

36 7.2

30 7.5

2 3.3

3 13.7

1 10.5

2 3.0

6 7.8

5 6.5

2 3.5

6 9.8

7 8.4

7 11.1

20 5.7

16 10.7

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Colorado General Election Survey, August 29th - 31st, 2016, 500N, 4.38% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 4-1 T4. Are you married, widowed, separated, divorced, single and never been married, or unmarried and living with a partner? GENDER~MARITAL AGE REPUBLICANS DEMOCRATS INDEPENDENT ----------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------- ------------------------------- -------------------------------

TOTAL ---------

MEN

---------

MEN MARR

---------

MEN SING

---------

WOM

---------

WOM MARR

---------

WOM SING

---------

18-34

---------

35-44

---------

45-54

---------

55-64

---------

65 PLUS

---------

REP TOT

---------

REP MEN

---------

REP WOM

---------

DEM TOT

---------

DEM MEN

---------

DEM WOM

---------

IND TOT

---------

IND MEN

---------

IND WOM

---------

TOTAL

500 100.0

240 100.0

138 100.0

100 100.0

260 100.0

168 100.0

91 100.0

115 100.0

85 100.0

95 100.0

100 100.0

105 100.0

175 100.0

84 100.0

91 100.0

170 100.0

71 100.0

99 100.0

147 100.0

79 100.0

68 100.0

MARRIED

306 61.3

138 57.6

138 100.0

168 64.7

168 100.0

28 24.2

58 67.8

69 72.1

75 75.4

77 73.5

129 73.8

61 73.3

68 74.1

91 53.6

30 41.8

62 62.1

83 56.4

45 57.1

38 55.5

SINGLE NEVER BEEN MARRIED

101 20.3

69 28.8

69 68.7

32 12.4

32 35.3

71 61.7

11 13.5

9 9.9

8 8.1

1 1.4

19 10.9

14 17.1

5 5.3

40 23.3

29 40.5

11 11.0

38 25.9

22 27.4

16 24.2

DIVORCED

46 9.1

16 6.6

16 15.9

30 11.4

30 32.4

5 4.6

10 11.7

13 14.2

8 8.5

8 8.0

12 7.0

4 5.1

8 8.7

20 11.7

6 8.6

14 14.0

13 9.1

6 7.0

8 11.5

WIDOWED

23 4.7

7 2.8

7 6.6

17 6.5

17 18.4

1 1.0

1 1.5

1 1.2

5 4.9

15 14.2

8 4.4

1 1.3

7 7.2

11 6.6

5 6.5

7 6.7

4 3.0

1 1.2

4 5.2

UNMARRIED LIVING WITH A PARTNER

20 4.0

8 3.4

8 8.1

12 4.5

12 12.8

9 8.2

5 5.3

2 1.6

2 2.3

2 1.9

6 3.2

2 3.0

3 3.5

7 4.1

1 1.4

6 6.0

7 4.9

5 5.8

3 3.7

SEPARATED

2 0.4

1 0.3

1 0.7

1 0.4

1 1.2

0.2

1 0.8

1 0.9

1 0.5

1 1.0

1 0.5

1 1.0

0.2

NO OPINION

2 0.3

1 0.6

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

1 0.9

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.1

1 0.8

1 1.4

Page 12: September 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED …magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/...September 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FR: DAVID FLAHERTY, MAGELLAN

Colorado General Election Survey, August 29th - 31st, 2016, 500N, 4.38% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 4-2 T4. Are you married, widowed, separated, divorced, single and never been married, or unmarried and living with a partner? RACE REGION MODE ------------------------------------------ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------

TOTAL

--------- WHIT

--------- HISP

--------- BLCK

--------- OTHR

--------- CD1

--------- CD2

--------- CD3

--------- CD4

--------- CD5

--------- CD6

--------- CD7

--------- LL

--------- CELL

---------

TOTAL

500 100.0

395 100.0

75 100.0

20 100.0

7 100.0

65 100.0

80 100.0

75 100.0

70 100.0

65 100.0

80 100.0

65 100.0

354 100.0

146 100.0

MARRIED

306 61.3

254 64.2

44 58.2

4 20.3

3 45.3

32 49.0

53 66.8

54 71.4

53 75.2

39 60.3

43 53.6

33 50.6

250 70.6

57 38.9

SINGLE NEVER BEEN MARRIED

101 20.3

70 17.6

15 20.0

13 66.7

3 44.0

13 19.8

13 16.4

7 9.8

9 12.9

13 20.3

29 35.8

17 26.4

40 11.4

61 41.6

DIVORCED

46 9.1

32 8.0

12 16.5

1 6.5

1.1

11 17.6

5 6.1

6 7.9

2 2.7

7 10.7

7 9.2

7 11.0

28 7.9

18 12.0

WIDOWED

23 4.7

20 5.1

2 2.5

1 6.5

1.1

2 3.0

3 3.8

7 9.5

4 5.7

3 4.4

1 1.4

3 5.1

22 6.3

1 0.8

UNMARRIED LIVING WITH A PARTNER

20 4.0

18 4.5

2 2.7

2.0

7 10.5

5 5.9

1 1.2

1 1.6

3 4.0

4 5.5

11 3.1

9 6.1

SEPARATED

2 0.4

2 0.4

2.6

1 0.9

0.3

1 1.4

1 0.3

1 0.6

NO OPINION

2 0.3

1 0.2

4.0

0.1

0.2

1 1.9

0.1

2 0.5

Page 13: September 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED …magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/...September 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FR: DAVID FLAHERTY, MAGELLAN

Colorado General Election Survey, August 29th - 31st, 2016, 500N, 4.38% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 5-1 T5. Which of the following age groups applies to you? GENDER~MARITAL AGE REPUBLICANS DEMOCRATS INDEPENDENT ----------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------- ------------------------------- -------------------------------

TOTAL ---------

MEN

---------

MEN MARR

---------

MEN SING

---------

WOM

---------

WOM MARR

---------

WOM SING

---------

18-34

---------

35-44

---------

45-54

---------

55-64

---------

65 PLUS

---------

REP TOT

---------

REP MEN

---------

REP WOM

---------

DEM TOT

---------

DEM MEN

---------

DEM WOM

---------

IND TOT

---------

IND MEN

---------

IND WOM

---------

TOTAL

500 100.0

240 100.0

138 100.0

100 100.0

260 100.0

168 100.0

91 100.0

115 100.0

85 100.0

95 100.0

100 100.0

105 100.0

175 100.0

84 100.0

91 100.0

170 100.0

71 100.0

99 100.0

147 100.0

79 100.0

68 100.0

18-34

115 23.0

72 29.8

14 10.1

57 57.2

43 16.7

14 8.2

30 32.3

115 100.0

30 17.2

24 28.3

7 7.2

36 21.0

22 31.0

14 13.8

45 30.4

22 27.3

23 33.9

35-44

85 17.0

46 19.3

29 20.9

17 17.2

39 14.9

29 17.0

10 10.9

85 100.0

22 12.7

12 14.6

10 11.0

28 16.8

16 22.8

12 12.4

33 22.5

18 22.6

15 22.4

45-54

95 19.0

39 16.4

29 21.0

10 10.2

56 21.4

40 23.5

16 17.5

95 100.0

40 22.7

17 20.8

22 24.4

33 19.2

8 10.6

25 25.3

23 15.4

15 18.3

8 12.1

55-64

100 20.0

44 18.3

33 23.8

10 10.2

56 21.5

43 25.3

13 14.7

100 100.0

39 22.2

14 16.7

25 27.2

32 18.9

15 20.9

17 17.5

28 18.7

14 17.5

14 20.1

65+

105 21.0

39 16.1

33 24.2

5 5.1

66 25.5

44 25.9

23 24.7

105 100.0

44 25.2

16 19.6

28 30.3

41 24.2

10 14.7

31 30.9

19 13.0

11 14.3

8 11.5

UNSURE NO OPINION

Page 14: September 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED …magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/...September 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FR: DAVID FLAHERTY, MAGELLAN

Colorado General Election Survey, August 29th - 31st, 2016, 500N, 4.38% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 5-2 T5. Which of the following age groups applies to you? RACE REGION MODE ------------------------------------------ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------

TOTAL

--------- WHIT

--------- HISP

--------- BLCK

--------- OTHR

--------- CD1

--------- CD2

--------- CD3

--------- CD4

--------- CD5

--------- CD6

--------- CD7

--------- LL

--------- CELL

---------

TOTAL

500 100.0

395 100.0

75 100.0

20 100.0

7 100.0

65 100.0

80 100.0

75 100.0

70 100.0

65 100.0

80 100.0

65 100.0

354 100.0

146 100.0

18-34

115 23.0

79 20.0

22 29.2

11 53.0

4 46.8

20 30.1

17 21.4

7 9.0

11 15.0

16 24.1

28 35.6

17 26.1

32 8.9

83 57.0

35-44

85 17.0

71 17.9

9 12.1

3 13.7

2 21.7

19 28.7

14 17.8

6 8.4

13 18.3

13 19.2

11 13.5

10 14.8

46 13.0

39 26.7

45-54

95 19.0

74 18.8

18 23.8

1 6.5

1 15.2

12 18.0

14 17.8

13 17.5

18 25.8

11 16.8

14 18.1

12 19.2

71 20.1

24 16.4

55-64

100 20.0

80 20.3

15 19.8

4 20.3

1 7.7

5 7.9

19 24.1

22 29.0

10 14.2

14 21.0

15 19.0

15 23.0

100 28.3

65+

105 21.0

91 23.0

11 15.2

1 6.5

1 8.6

10 15.3

15 18.9

27 36.0

19 26.6

12 18.9

11 13.8

11 16.9

105 29.7

UNSURE NO OPINION

Page 15: September 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED …magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/...September 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FR: DAVID FLAHERTY, MAGELLAN

Colorado General Election Survey, August 29th - 31st, 2016, 500N, 4.38% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 6-1 T6. What is your racial or ethnic background? GENDER~MARITAL AGE REPUBLICANS DEMOCRATS INDEPENDENT ----------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------- ------------------------------- -------------------------------

TOTAL ---------

MEN

---------

MEN MARR

---------

MEN SING

---------

WOM

---------

WOM MARR

---------

WOM SING

---------

18-34

---------

35-44

---------

45-54

---------

55-64

---------

65 PLUS

---------

REP TOT

---------

REP MEN

---------

REP WOM

---------

DEM TOT

---------

DEM MEN

---------

DEM WOM

---------

IND TOT

---------

IND MEN

---------

IND WOM

---------

TOTAL

500 100.0

240 100.0

138 100.0

100 100.0

260 100.0

168 100.0

91 100.0

115 100.0

85 100.0

95 100.0

100 100.0

105 100.0

175 100.0

84 100.0

91 100.0

170 100.0

71 100.0

99 100.0

147 100.0

79 100.0

68 100.0

WHITE

395 79.0

176 73.4

107 77.7

68 67.6

219 84.2

146 86.9

73 79.4

79 68.6

71 83.2

74 78.2

80 80.1

91 86.6

151 86.3

67 80.0

84 91.9

126 73.9

45 63.2

81 81.6

113 76.9

61 76.5

53 77.3

HISPANIC

75 15.0

44 18.4

25 18.4

19 18.5

31 11.9

18 10.9

13 13.9

22 19.0

9 10.7

18 18.8

15 14.8

11 10.8

21 12.2

15 17.5

7 7.3

29 17.3

15 21.5

14 14.3

24 16.5

14 17.9

10 14.8

BLACK AFRICAN AMERICAN

20 4.0

13 5.3

2 1.6

11 10.6

7 2.8

2 1.1

5 5.8

11 9.2

3 3.2

1 1.4

4 4.1

1 1.2

13 7.5

10 14.4

3 2.6

7 4.9

3 3.3

5 6.8

OTHER

7 1.5

5 2.2

2 1.4

3 3.1

2 0.8

2 0.9

1 0.7

4 3.1

2 1.9

1 1.2

1 0.6

1 0.6

2 0.9

1 1.5

0.3

2 1.0

0.4

1 1.4

2 1.2

1 1.6

0.7

DON'T KNOW REFUSED

3 0.5

2 0.7

1 1.0

0.2

1 0.3

0.2

0.2

0.1

1 1.0

0.5

0.4

1 0.7

1 0.7

1 0.9

0.5

0.3

0.5

0.1

1 0.5

1 0.7

0.3

Page 16: September 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED …magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/...September 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FR: DAVID FLAHERTY, MAGELLAN

Colorado General Election Survey, August 29th - 31st, 2016, 500N, 4.38% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 6-2 T6. What is your racial or ethnic background? RACE REGION MODE ------------------------------------------ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------

TOTAL

--------- WHIT

--------- HISP

--------- BLCK

--------- OTHR

--------- CD1

--------- CD2

--------- CD3

--------- CD4

--------- CD5

--------- CD6

--------- CD7

--------- LL

--------- CELL

---------

TOTAL

500 100.0

395 100.0

75 100.0

20 100.0

7 100.0

65 100.0

80 100.0

75 100.0

70 100.0

65 100.0

80 100.0

65 100.0

354 100.0

146 100.0

WHITE

395 79.0

395 100.0

45 68.7

74 92.5

62 82.2

60 85.4

56 86.9

49 60.9

50 76.4

283 79.9

112 76.8

HISPANIC

75 15.0

75 100.0

17 25.5

5 6.4

10 13.9

9 12.9

5 7.3

17 21.7

12 18.1

51 14.4

24 16.4

BLACK AFRICAN AMERICAN

20 4.0

20 100.0

3 4.0

2 2.9

13 16.0

2 3.8

15 4.1

5 3.6

OTHER

7 1.5

7 100.0

1 1.6

0.6

0.4

1 1.4

3 5.2

1 0.7

1 1.3

3 0.9

4 2.9

DON'T KNOW REFUSED

3 0.5

0.2

0.5

1 0.7

0.4

0.7

0.6

0.4

2 0.6

0.2

Page 17: September 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED …magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/...September 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FR: DAVID FLAHERTY, MAGELLAN

Colorado General Election Survey, August 29th - 31st, 2016, 500N, 4.38% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 7-1 T7. For statistical purposes, are you a man or a woman? GENDER~MARITAL AGE REPUBLICANS DEMOCRATS INDEPENDENT ----------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------- ------------------------------- -------------------------------

TOTAL ---------

MEN

---------

MEN MARR

---------

MEN SING

---------

WOM

---------

WOM MARR

---------

WOM SING

---------

18-34

---------

35-44

---------

45-54

---------

55-64

---------

65 PLUS

---------

REP TOT

---------

REP MEN

---------

REP WOM

---------

DEM TOT

---------

DEM MEN

---------

DEM WOM

---------

IND TOT

---------

IND MEN

---------

IND WOM

---------

TOTAL

500 100.0

240 100.0

138 100.0

100 100.0

260 100.0

168 100.0

91 100.0

115 100.0

85 100.0

95 100.0

100 100.0

105 100.0

175 100.0

84 100.0

91 100.0

170 100.0

71 100.0

99 100.0

147 100.0

79 100.0

68 100.0

FEMALE

260 52.0

260 100.0

168 100.0

91 100.0

43 37.7

39 45.6

56 58.5

56 56.0

66 63.1

91 52.3

91 100.0

99 58.4

99 100.0

68 46.2

68 100.0

MALE

240 48.0

240 100.0

138 100.0

100 100.0

72 62.3

46 54.4

39 41.5

44 44.0

39 36.9

84 47.7

84 100.0

71 41.6

71 100.0

79 53.8

79 100.0

Page 18: September 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED …magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/...September 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FR: DAVID FLAHERTY, MAGELLAN

Colorado General Election Survey, August 29th - 31st, 2016, 500N, 4.38% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 7-2 T7. For statistical purposes, are you a man or a woman? RACE REGION MODE ------------------------------------------ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------

TOTAL

--------- WHIT

--------- HISP

--------- BLCK

--------- OTHR

--------- CD1

--------- CD2

--------- CD3

--------- CD4

--------- CD5

--------- CD6

--------- CD7

--------- LL

--------- CELL

---------

TOTAL

500 100.0

395 100.0

75 100.0

20 100.0

7 100.0

65 100.0

80 100.0

75 100.0

70 100.0

65 100.0

80 100.0

65 100.0

354 100.0

146 100.0

FEMALE

260 52.0

219 55.4

31 41.3

7 36.2

2 29.1

37 57.0

47 59.0

47 62.7

30 43.5

28 42.5

37 45.7

34 52.6

196 55.3

64 43.9

MALE

240 48.0

176 44.6

44 58.7

13 63.8

5 70.9

28 43.0

33 41.0

28 37.3

40 56.5

37 57.5

43 54.3

31 47.4

158 44.7

82 56.1

Page 19: September 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED …magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/...September 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FR: DAVID FLAHERTY, MAGELLAN

Colorado General Election Survey, August 29th - 31st, 2016, 500N, 4.38% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 8-1 REGION GENDER~MARITAL AGE REPUBLICANS DEMOCRATS INDEPENDENT ----------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------- ------------------------------- -------------------------------

TOTAL ---------

MEN

---------

MEN MARR

---------

MEN SING

---------

WOM

---------

WOM MARR

---------

WOM SING

---------

18-34

---------

35-44

---------

45-54

---------

55-64

---------

65 PLUS

---------

REP TOT

---------

REP MEN

---------

REP WOM

---------

DEM TOT

---------

DEM MEN

---------

DEM WOM

---------

IND TOT

---------

IND MEN

---------

IND WOM

---------

TOTAL

500 100.0

240 100.0

138 100.0

100 100.0

260 100.0

168 100.0

91 100.0

115 100.0

85 100.0

95 100.0

100 100.0

105 100.0

175 100.0

84 100.0

91 100.0

170 100.0

71 100.0

99 100.0

147 100.0

79 100.0

68 100.0

CD1

65 13.0

28 11.7

12 8.5

16 16.2

37 14.2

20 12.0

17 18.5

20 17.0

19 22.0

12 12.3

5 5.1

10 9.4

20 11.3

9 10.9

11 11.8

25 14.4

8 11.9

16 16.3

21 13.9

10 13.2

10 14.8

CD2

80 16.0

33 13.7

21 15.4

12 11.5

47 18.1

32 19.1

15 16.4

17 14.9

14 16.7

14 15.0

19 19.3

15 14.4

22 12.5

5 6.1

17 18.4

33 19.6

13 18.6

20 20.4

23 15.9

13 16.8

10 14.9

CD3

75 15.0

28 11.7

19 13.6

9 9.1

47 18.1

35 20.7

12 13.2

7 5.9

6 7.4

13 13.8

22 21.8

27 25.7

32 18.2

15 17.7

17 18.7

32 18.8

9 13.0

23 22.9

11 7.6

4 5.1

7 10.5

CD4

70 14.0

40 16.5

29 21.3

9 8.7

30 11.7

23 13.8

7 8.0

11 9.1

13 15.1

18 19.0

10 10.0

19 17.8

30 17.2

19 22.5

11 12.3

23 13.5

8 12.0

14 14.6

17 11.5

12 15.4

5 7.0

CD5

65 13.0

37 15.6

23 16.4

15 14.7

28 10.6

17 9.8

11 12.1

16 13.6

13 14.7

11 11.5

14 13.7

12 11.7

20 11.2

15 17.4

5 5.6

14 8.1

3 4.1

11 11.0

27 18.5

16 19.8

12 16.9

CD6

80 16.0

43 18.1

21 15.3

22 22.2

37 14.0

22 12.9

15 16.1

28 24.7

11 12.7

14 15.2

15 15.2

11 10.5

25 14.2

11 12.8

14 15.4

27 16.0

20 27.7

8 7.7

27 18.2

13 16.6

14 20.1

CD7

65 13.0

31 12.8

13 9.5

18 17.6

34 13.1

20 11.7

14 15.8

17 14.8

10 11.3

12 13.1

15 15.0

11 10.5

27 15.3

10 12.5

16 17.9

16 9.5

9 12.8

7 7.2

21 14.3

10 13.1

11 15.7

Page 20: September 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED …magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/...September 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FR: DAVID FLAHERTY, MAGELLAN

Colorado General Election Survey, August 29th - 31st, 2016, 500N, 4.38% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 8-2 REGION RACE REGION MODE ------------------------------------------ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------

TOTAL

--------- WHIT

--------- HISP

--------- BLCK

--------- OTHR

--------- CD1

--------- CD2

--------- CD3

--------- CD4

--------- CD5

--------- CD6

--------- CD7

--------- LL

--------- CELL

---------

TOTAL

500 100.0

395 100.0

75 100.0

20 100.0

7 100.0

65 100.0

80 100.0

75 100.0

70 100.0

65 100.0

80 100.0

65 100.0

354 100.0

146 100.0

CD1

65 13.0

45 11.3

17 22.1

3 13.0

1 13.8

65 100.0

31 8.9

34 23.0

CD2

80 16.0

74 18.7

5 6.8

6.1

80 100.0

52 14.7

28 19.1

CD3

75 15.0

62 15.6

10 13.9

2 10.8

3.7

75 100.0

68 19.3

7 4.6

CD4

70 14.0

60 15.1

9 12.0

1 12.6

70 100.0

59 16.6

11 7.7

CD5

65 13.0

56 14.3

5 6.3

3 44.6

65 100.0

48 13.6

17 11.5

CD6

80 16.0

49 12.3

17 23.2

13 63.9

1 8.0

80 100.0

51 14.3

29 20.0

CD7

65 13.0

50 12.6

12 15.7

2 12.3

1 11.2

65 100.0

44 12.6

21 14.1