september 11, 2020 · epidemic curve by 3-day moving average by reported date 2020-09-15 0. 10. 20....
TRANSCRIPT
September 11, 2020
COVID-19 Epidemiological SummaryContent covered:• Epidemic curves• Syndromic surveillance • Regional & provincial rates• Percent positivity• Positive test turnaround time• Case investigation time• Age & sex distribution• Geographical rates & distribution of cases• Exposure history• Healthcare worker status• Hospitalizations & ICU• Healthcare system capacity• Current outcomes• Breakdown by deaths• Doubling time• Mean R0 (effective)
Epidemic Curve by Reported Date
2020-09-15
0
20
40
60
80
100
12003
-20
03-2
7
04-0
3
04-1
0
04-1
7
04-2
4
05-0
1
05-0
8
05-1
5
05-2
2
05-2
9
06-0
5
06-1
2
06-1
9
06-2
6
07-0
3
07-1
0
07-1
7
07-2
4
07-3
1
08-0
7
08-1
4
08-2
1
08-2
8
# of
new
CO
VID-
19 c
ases
Date Reported
Epidemic Curve by 3-Day Moving Average by Reported Date
2020-09-15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
8003
-27
04-0
3
04-1
0
04-1
7
04-2
4
05-0
1
05-0
8
05-1
5
05-2
2
05-2
9
06-0
5
06-1
2
06-1
9
06-2
6
07-0
3
07-1
0
07-1
7
07-2
4
07-3
1
08-0
7
08-1
4
08-2
1
08-2
8
09-0
4
# of
con
firm
ed C
OVI
D-19
cas
es
Reported Date
Cumulative Cases and Deaths of COVID-19 in WEC
2020-09-15
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
300003
-20
03-2
704
-03
04-1
004
-17
04-2
405
-01
05-0
805
-15
05-2
205
-29
06-0
506
-12
06-1
906
-26
07-0
307
-10
07-1
707
-24
07-3
108
-07
08-1
408
-21
08-2
809
-04
# of
tota
l CO
VID-
19 c
ases
Date Reported
Cumulative Case Counts Cumulative Deaths
Epidemic Curve by Agri-Farm Versus Non-Agri-Farm Cases by Reported Date
2020-09-15
0
20
40
60
80
100
12004
-01
04-0
8
04-1
5
04-2
2
04-2
9
05-0
6
05-1
3
05-2
0
05-2
7
06-0
3
06-1
0
06-1
7
06-2
4
07-0
1
07-0
8
07-1
5
07-2
2
07-2
9
08-0
5
08-1
2
08-1
9
08-2
6
09-0
2
09-0
9
# of
con
firm
ed C
OVI
D-19
cas
es
Reported Date
Non-AgriFarm AgriFarm
7-Day Moving Average by Reported Date
2020-09-15
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
2020-03-27 2020-04-27 2020-05-27 2020-06-27 2020-07-27 2020-08-27
#of c
onfir
med
CO
VID-
19 c
ases
Date Reported
7-day MA 7-day MA minus Agri-Farm Sector
Windsor-Essex Rate by Reported Week
2020-09-15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37*
# of
CO
VID-
19 c
ases
Rate
per
100
,000
pop
ulat
ion
Reported Week
Percent Positivity by Week by All Tests
2020-09-15
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
# of
peo
ple
test
ed/#
of t
ests
com
plet
ed
% p
ositi
vity
Week
Weekly test completed % positivity (all WEC tests)
Regional & Provincial Rates
2020-09-15
601
488 472410
342300 293 273 261 255
211 201172 149 147
295
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Rate
per
100
,000
pop
ulat
ion
Geography
Rate per 100,000 by Municipality
2020-09-15
150.6 219.2
2466.9
149.2 152.0
3014.6
145.4365.3
0.0
500.0
1000.0
1500.0
2000.0
2500.0
3000.0
3500.0
Rate
per
100
,000
pop
ulat
ion
Municipality
2020-09-15
2020-09-15
2020-09-15
2020-09-15
Age & Sex Distribution
2020-09-15
35%
16%
4%
21%
13%
4% 5%3%
55%
45%
6%
26%23%
17%13%
6%4%
6%
65%
35%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0 to 19years
20 to 29years
30 to 39years
40 to 49years
50 to 59years
60 to 69years
70 to 79years
80+years
Male Female
% o
f CO
VID-
19 c
ases
Last Two Weeks Overall
Distribution of COVID-19 Cases by Municipality
2020-09-15
Amherstburg1%
Essex2%
Kingsville22%
LaSalle2%
Lakeshore3%
Leamington35%
Tecumseh1%
Windsor34%
Distribution of COVID-19 Cases by Municipality in last 30 days (August 10 to September 9)
2020-09-15
Amherstburg1%
Essex5%
Kingsville3%
LaSalle8%
Lakeshore4%
Leamington37%
Tecumseh2%
Windsor40%
Distribution of COVID-19 Cases by Municipality in last 7 days (September 3 to September 9)
2020-09-15
Amherstburg0%
Essex4%
Kingsville8% LaSalle
0%
Lakeshore7%
Leamington7%
Tecumseh0%
Windsor74%
Distribution of COVID-19 Cases by Occupation in the last 7 days (September 3 to September 9)
2020-09-15
Agri-Farm Worker7%
Healthcare Worker14%
Other/Unemployed/Retired/Missing
79%
Epidemic Curve by Reported Date For Windsor
2020-09-15
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
7-Da
y M
ovin
g Av
erag
e (M
A)
# of
con
firm
ed C
OVI
D-19
cas
es
Reported Date
Farm Community Overall 7-Day MA Community 7-Day MA
Epidemic Curve by Reported Date for Amherstburg
2020-09-15
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0
1
2
3
7-Da
y M
ovin
g Av
erag
e (M
A)
# of
con
firm
ed C
OVI
D-19
cas
es
Reported Date
Overall Overall 7-Day MA
Epidemic Curve by Reported Date for Essex
2020-09-15
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7-Da
y M
ovin
g Av
erag
e (M
A)
# of
con
firm
ed C
OVI
D-19
cas
es
Reported Date
Farm Community Overall 7-Day MA Community 7-Day MA
Epidemic Curve by Reported Date For Kingsville
2020-09-15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
7-Da
y M
ovin
g Av
erag
e (M
A)
# of
con
firm
ed C
OVI
D-19
cas
es
Reported Date
Farm Community Overall 7-Day MA Community 7-Day MA
Epidemic Curve by Reported Date For Leamington
2020-09-15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
10001
-Jun
-20
08-J
un-2
0
15-J
un-2
0
22-J
un-2
0
29-J
un-2
0
06-J
ul-2
0
13-J
ul-2
0
20-J
ul-2
0
27-J
ul-2
0
03-A
ug-2
0
10-A
ug-2
0
17-A
ug-2
0
24-A
ug-2
0
31-A
ug-2
0
07-S
ep-2
0
7-Da
y M
ovin
g Av
erag
e (M
A)
# of
con
firm
ed C
OVI
D-19
cas
es
Reported Date
Farm Community Overall 7-Day MA Community 7-Day MA
Epidemic Curve by Reported Date For Lakeshore
2020-09-15
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
7-Da
y M
ovin
g Av
erag
e (M
A)
# of
con
firm
ed C
OVI
D-19
cas
es
Reported Date
Farm Community Overall 7-Day MA Community 7-Day MA
Epidemic Curve by Reported Date for LaSalle
2020-09-15
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7-Da
y M
ovin
g Av
erag
e (M
A)
# of
con
firm
ed C
OVI
D-19
cas
es
Reported Date
Overall Overall 7-Day MA
Epidemic Curve by Reported Date For Tecumseh
2020-09-15
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0
1
2
3
7-Da
y M
ovin
g Av
erag
e (M
A)
# of
con
firm
ed C
OVI
D-19
cas
es
Reported Date
Overall Overall 7-Day MA
Exposure History by Reported Date
2020-09-15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
# of
con
firm
ed C
OVI
D-19
cas
es
Reported Date
Travel Close Contact Community Transmission
Exposure History by Reported Date Among Agri-Farm Workers
2020-09-15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
# of
con
firm
ed c
ases
Travel Close Contact Community Transmission
Exposure History by Reported Date Among Non-AgriFarm Cases
2020-09-15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
# of
con
firm
ed C
ases
Reported Date
Community Transmission Close Contact Travel
COVID-19 Cases by Healthcare Worker
2020-09-15
HealthCare Worker (Michigan)
21%
HealthCare Worker (Local +
International)79%
Hospitalizations & ICU for COVID-19
2020-09-15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
# of
con
firm
ed C
OVI
D-19
cas
es
Date
Hospitalizations ICU Hospitalization 7 Day Avg ICU 7 Day Avg
Health Care System Capacity
2020-09-15
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% o
f bed
s occ
upie
d
Date
Acute Beds Occupied ICU Beds Occupied ICU Ventilator Beds Occupied
Current Outcomes
2020-09-15
Resolved93.9%
Deceased3.0%
Self-isolating2.7%
Hospitalized0.2%
ICU0.0%
Unknown0.2%
Ever Hospitalized
2020-09-15
Not hospitalized92%
Hospitalized8%
Age & Sex Breakdown of COVID-19 Deaths
2020-09-15
0% 1% 1% 1% 3%
9%
18%
66%
43%
57%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0 to 19years
20 to 29years
30 to 39years
40 to 49years
50 to 59years
60 to 69years
70 to 79years
80+years
Male Female
% o
f con
firm
ed C
OVI
D-19
dea
ths
Age Group & Sex
Case Fatality Rate
2020-09-15
1.0%
15.5%
3.0%
6.4%
21.2%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Community LTCH/RH Overall WEC Ontario Ontario LTCH
Case
fata
lity
(%)
Setting
Doubling Time (Day over Day Comparison)
2020-09-15
1
20
400
28-M
ar
4-Ap
r
11-A
pr
18-A
pr
25-A
pr
2-M
ay
9-M
ay
16-M
ay
23-M
ay
30-M
ay
6-Ju
n
13-J
un
20-J
un
27-J
un
4-Ju
l
11-J
ul
18-J
ul
25-J
ul
1-Au
g
8-Au
g
15-A
ug
22-A
ug
29-A
ug
5-Se
p
Doub
ling
Tim
e (lo
g10)
Reported Date
ONT Doubling Time
WECHU Doubling Time
Canada Doubling Time
Mean R0 (Effective)
2020-09-15
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Mea
n R0
Date of Symptom Onset
Summary• Windsor-Essex is seeing low cases overall.• The primary source of exposure continues to be
close contact with a confirmed case• COVID-19 related hospitalizations has declined
while ICU occupancy is low.• Day-over-day doubling time in Windsor-Essex is
slightly higher than the province and nationally• R0 (effective) value is 0.93 indicating a decrease
in transmission in Windsor-Essex• BUT this has increased from the previous week
2020-09-15