Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology: NOAA's multi-year plan to deploy the NASA Global Hawk aircraft for high impact weather

Michael L. BlackGary A. Wick

Robbie E. HoodNOAA UAS Program

SHOUT

SHOUT ObjectivesSHOUT Objectives

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Overall Goal•Demonstrate and test prototype UAS concept of operations that could be used to mitigate the risk of diminished high impact weather forecasts and warnings in the case of polar-orbiting satellite observing gaps

Objective 1• Conduct data impact studies • Observing System Experiments (OSE) using data from UAS

field missions• Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) using

simulated UAS data

Objective 2•Evaluate cost and operational benefit through detailed analysis of life-cycle operational costs and constraints

SHOUT Proposed Mission Plans

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• 2014 – Collaboration with NASA HS3– August 26 to September 29, NASA Wallops– Up to 15 total flights– NOAA input to mission design

• 2015 – NOAA led Missions– September – November, NASA Armstrong– Tropical cyclones (ATL, EPAC)and high impact

weather targets (Pacific, Alaska)– Single deployment location adds flexibility for

potential targets- Atlantic, EPAC, Pacific, Arctic– Possibility for 2 GH aircraft to be explored– 10-16 potential flights

• 2016 – NOAA led Mission– September – November, NASA Armstrong– NASA EV-2 programs would lead to NASA

collaborations and parnership with NOAA

PROPOSED SHOUT HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER MISSIONSPROPOSED SHOUT HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER MISSIONS

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• Early period: Tropical cyclones• Forecast improvements for track and intensity• Option for both Atlantic and Pacific Basins• Atlantic tradeoff of deployment costs vs station time

• Later period: High-impact storms affecting the continental US and Alaska weather:

• Coastal flooding• Atmospheric rivers• Forecast improvement for threats such as extreme

precipitation and damaging winds• Targeted lead times of 3-7 days• Potential contribution to satellite calibration/validation

HS3 2014

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• 5th week in place on NASA schedule• Agreements drafted with both NASA Goddard and

Armstrong

• NOAA adding:• Up to 5 flights• 240 dropsondes• Mission science support and guidance• Real-time data transmission/assimilation planned• Targeting methodology for missions possible

SHOUT ADAPTIVE OPERATIONAL STRATEGY

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• Tropical cyclones

–SUNY group proposed to explore methodology (R. Torn, J. Dunion, Grad. Student)

–Collaborations with AOML and ESRL NOAA Labs.

• High-impact weather events

– Zoltan Toth (ESRL) proposed to explore methodologies

–Identification of high- impact weather threat cases

–Fully automated Ensemble Transform sensitivity algorithm to identify sensitive areas

–Produce “optimized” flight track to sample sensitive region for selected threat

PROPOSED NADINE FLT TRACK

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ACTUAL NADINE FLT TRACK

Typical AV-6 Flight Pattern

IP

- ~ 600 nmi-

<-To WFFFP

Possible Modified AV-6 Flight Patternwith approaching trough to the west

<-To WFF

IP

- ~ 600 nmi-

FPExtra Drops

IP

- ~ 600 nmi-

<-To WFF

FP

Possible Modified AV-6 Flight Patternwith building ridge to the NE

Extra Drops

Possible Modified AV-6 Flight Patternwith SAL East of Center

IP

- ~ 600 nmi-

<-To WFF

FP

Extra Drops

Does a butterfly pattern (2 crossings) at the beginning of the pattern yield more

symmetric coverage?

Does a butterfly pattern (multiple long leg crossings) yield more symmetric coverage and still provide

adequate environmental sampling?

CONSIDERATIONS FOR NOAA-MODIFIED MISSIONS:CONSIDERATIONS FOR NOAA-MODIFIED MISSIONS:

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• HS3 objectives and goals come first- especially with AV-1• NOAA objectives are complimentary to those of NASA• Modifications proposed only when there is adequate time on

station for changes• Try to minimize alterations to the NASA proposed flight tracks• We would like to fly with NOAA IFEX missions (P3s and G-IV) when possible• Some coordinated portion of flight legs with NOAA P3s and/or

the G-IV is beneficial to compare radars• NOAA slightly more interested with AV-6 flights (AVAPS) but

would like to evaluate and, possibly, modify a couple of AV-1 flights, especially if NOAA is flying

• Cooperation and coordination will yield success for both agencies

To the new, brilliant italian GH scientist:To the new, brilliant italian GH scientist:

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• WE ARE COUNTING ON YOU TO PROVIDE GOOD HDVIS AND NIGHT TIME GH IMAGERY!!! :)

“Sì, posso fare”(YES,I CAN DO)