sensemaker lunch and learn final
TRANSCRIPT
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8/17/2019 SenseMaker Lunch and Learn Final
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SenseMaker:Evaluating ComplexAdaptive Systems
A Practitioner’s Guide to Using ACEs to Build Hopeand Resilience
Keil EggersMay 9. 2!"
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8/17/2019 SenseMaker Lunch and Learn Final
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On “Big Words”
• #ill $e using ne% &oca$ulary t'roug'outt'e presentation
•() so*et'ing is con)using+ please stop andas,
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-earning t'is )or t'e rst ti*e toget'er/
2 0 May 2!"
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8/17/2019 SenseMaker Lunch and Learn Final
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Organizing a arty
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1'is -unc' and-earn is acele$ration
• Blind)olded ands%inging
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-et’s $rea, t'is$ad $oy open.
0 May 2!"
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8/17/2019 SenseMaker Lunch and Learn Final
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We All !no" t#e Story$
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#'y are %e doingt'is3
• #'y can’t %e 4ustget $ac, to t'e%or,3
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Reporting ti*e &s. 1i*e spent onprogra**ing.
5 0 May 2!"
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8/17/2019 SenseMaker Lunch and Learn Final
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W#at is Evaluation%
• #'y do %e do it3
• #'at outputs are %e e6pecting )ro* an
e&aluation3
• (n %'at conte6ts does CPPR 'elp %it'
e&aluation and %'at do partners e6pect3
7 0 May 2!"
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8/17/2019 SenseMaker Lunch and Learn Final
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W#ere We Are
• 8ri&e to anticipate t'e )uture.
• ail:sa)e progra*s to ac'ie&e set
outco*es
• Robustness: prediction and pre&ention o)
negati&e outco*es
• Hypot'esis:$ased
" 0 May 2!"
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8/17/2019 SenseMaker Lunch and Learn Final
7/31
W#at are t#ose%&%
'emonade (or 'i(e)#eory o( C#ange
*esour+es,-nputs.
Progra*Co*ponents;Acti&ities<
=utputs (nter*ediate=utco*es
-ong:1er*=utco*es
eople:• )rained
'emonade (or'i(e )rainers,)t) model.
• Experien+edM-EC/0pro(essionals
!no"ledge:• Adverse
C#ild#oodExperien+esresear+#
• /ope 2resilien+eresear+#
-e*onade )or -i)e>• Prere?uisite
online ACEs*odule
• ! day training• Participant
resource*aterials;Hand$oo, @'andouts<
• Coac'ing
• u*$er o)pro)essionals
trained in-e*onade )or-i)e
• u*$er o))a*ilies engagedin *eaning)ulACEs discussion
• Pro)essionals'a&e
'ope*indset• (ncreased )a*ily
engage*ent inser&ices
• (*pro&edprogra**aticoutco*es
• Dtrong @ resilient)a*ilies
• e%er c'ildreni*pacted $yACEs
• Hope)ulco**unities
0 May 2!"
-ogic Models
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8/17/2019 SenseMaker Lunch and Learn Final
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Order vs3 Complexity
• Con)or*ity carries ris,• =rder is not usa$ility or adapta$ility.
• Co*ple6ity &alues action
• FGood enoug' action• -earning and DenseMa,ing can $e accurate
enoug' to *o&e on
• (rony o) Bureaucratic control
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8/17/2019 SenseMaker Lunch and Learn Final
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)#e 0-S-O4
Anticipatory a%arenessUnderstand t'e e&olutionary potential o)t'e present
Da)e:to:ail e6peri*ents•
a*pli)y success• da*pen )ailure
Resiliency to reco&er )ro* surprises9 0 May 2!"
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8/17/2019 SenseMaker Lunch and Learn Final
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SenseMaking
• Understanding actions and t'eirconse?uences t'at e*erge )ro* eorts tocreate order
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Ma,ing sense )ro* ,no%ledge o) t'e past• Generate )uture action
• Continuous and e&ol&ing+ not rigid li,eannual planning to *eet targets
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8/17/2019 SenseMaker Lunch and Learn Final
11/31
Cyne5n ,!un6ev7in.
1'e place o) your *ultiple $elongings+religious+ tri$al+ spiritual+ geograp'ical+'istorical+ etc t'at pro)oundly inIuence%'at you are ;indi&idually and collecti&ely
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8/17/2019 SenseMaker Lunch and Learn Final
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W#at is SenseMaker%
• Do)t%are de&eloped $y 8a&e Dno%denand Cogniti&e Edge
• Based on co*ple6ity t'eory+ ecology+ and
distri$uted et'nograp'y
• Creates 'u*an sensor net%or, t'roug'capturing sel):identied narrati&e)rag*ents
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8/17/2019 SenseMaker Lunch and Learn Final
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8eatures
•8istri$uted cognition
• ine:grained *aterial
• 8isinter*ediation: original *aterial accesseddirectly+ not *ediated $y analysts to decision *a,ers
• E&idence:$ased 'ard and so)t data )or actiona$leresults
• (denties J%ea, signals’ o) 'idden opportunities
• De*i:constrained signication to not li*it to
'ypot'esis• Mi6 o) so)t and 'ard data to *a,e sense o) co*ple6
realities+ to distill patterns and to respond in a ti*ely*anner
! 0 May2!"
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8/17/2019 SenseMaker Lunch and Learn Final
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)#e SenseMaker9Survey7
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8/17/2019 SenseMaker Lunch and Learn Final
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/o" to se SenseMaker
• =ngoing Capture
• AppleAndroid *o$ile Application or paper
sur&eys entered on $ac,end
• 5:7 *inutes
• 8o%nloaded to central ser&er )or instantanalysis
!7 0 May2!"
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8/17/2019 SenseMaker Lunch and Learn Final
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Analysis
• Clusters: %'at is i*portant to loo, at$ased on patterns
• ector analysis•
Mo&e*ent o) stories o&er ti*e
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8/17/2019 SenseMaker Lunch and Learn Final
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8itness Mapping
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8/17/2019 SenseMaker Lunch and Learn Final
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sing t#e 8itness Map
• 1'ree lters on t'e triangle de*onstratestrengt' or %ea,ness o) t'e la$els
• or* t'e a6es on t'e tness *ap.
• isualiLation and statistical instru*ents allo%patterns to $e detected in t'e *etadata+ andonce a pattern is detected+ t'e a$ility to go to
t'e supporting narrati&e i**ediately and%it'out interpretation+ ena$les *ore eecti&edecision *a,ing %it' respect to t'at pattern;e.g.+ encourage or da*pen<
! 0 May2!"
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8/17/2019 SenseMaker Lunch and Learn Final
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/uman Sensor 4et"ork
• Micro:narrati&es• Mass capture ;! N to e.g. stories<
s'o% di&ersity o) perspecti&es
•
Create an accurate Jdescription o) reality’)or progra* decision:*a,ing
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8/17/2019 SenseMaker Lunch and Learn Final
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8eatures o( SenseMaker
• Del):signication• Generates ?uantitati&e ;&isual< data
• Patterns @ trends against topics o)
interest• Analysis+ interpretation and use )or
actioninter&entions
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Mi6 o) so)t and 'ard data to *a,e senseo) co*ple6 realities+ to distill patterns andto respond in a ti*ely *anner
2 0 May2!"
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8/17/2019 SenseMaker Lunch and Learn Final
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Outputs
• ine:grained data• Dee clusters o) stories+ and read
indi&idual narrati&e data points
•
=riginal *aterial directly accessed $ydecision *a,ers
•
E6plorer so)t%are )or easy analytics• 1a$leau output: &isual representation o)
?uantitati&e data
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8/17/2019 SenseMaker Lunch and Learn Final
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Sel(6Signi5+ation
• 1'e process o) tagging narrati&e
• =ld Approac'> Hierarc'ical ta6ono*y+
*ar,ing ,ey %ords and assigning t'e*aterial to a category
•
Hea&y %or, )or analysis
• But se*antically+ &ery diOcult due tocogniti&e science and t'e nature o)lan ua e
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8/17/2019 SenseMaker Lunch and Learn Final
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W#y Mi+ro64arratives%
• ot a constructed story to pro&e a point• -arge a*ounts o) )rag*ented narrati&es
• Unstructured+ anecdotal %ay o) seeing
%orld• 1ell specic anecdotes+ sel):signi)y %'at it
*eans.
•
ou can’t as, generally F8oes t'is %or,3$ecause so*eti*es it does+ so*eti*es itdoesn’t’.
• Continuous )ree capture o) narrati&e %it'
instant )eed$ac,.2 0 May2!"
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8/17/2019 SenseMaker Lunch and Learn Final
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Surveys +an ;e limiting
• (*portance o) %ide:net story capture• Multiple identities o) t'e person
• Ga*ing t'e syste*
• 1'e $est %e can do is learn+ act+ andi*pro&e. 1'roug' continuous real:ti*e
input.
25 0 May2!"
S M k d C*7
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8/17/2019 SenseMaker Lunch and Learn Final
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SenseMaker and C*7s0alues
• 1'e Center )or Pu$lic Partners'ips andResearc' ;CPPR< assists partners %it'addressing co*ple6 social issues t'roug'targeted researc' and e&aluation as %ell
as co*pre'ensi&e pro4ect *anage*entand syste*s de&elop*ent.
• Mission> 1o opti*iLe t'e %ell:$eing o) at:ris, c'ildren+ yout'+ and )a*ilies $ygenerating responsi&e solutions t'ati*pro&e practice+ in)or* policy+ and
ad&ance ,no%ledge.27 0 May2!"
)# t #i it#
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)#e artners#ip "it#Cyne5n Centre
• 1'e Cynen Centre )or AppliedCo*ple6ity at t'e Uni&ersity o) Bangor in#'ales
•
8a&e Dno%den+ )ounder o) Cogniti&e Edge• -eader in co*ple6ity science and Kno%ledge
Manage*ent eld
•
(nternational Researc' Consortiu*• Progra**atic researc' t'at %e can
participate in
• Additional partners'ips possi$le: pri&ate
sector+ go&ern*ents+ international grant
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8/17/2019 SenseMaker Lunch and Learn Final
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/o" do "e go (rom"#ere "e are to
"#ere "e "ant to;e%
2 0 May2!"
W#at to do "it# t#e
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8/17/2019 SenseMaker Lunch and Learn Final
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W#at to do "it# t#edata%
• D'are $ac, %it' t'ose telling stories
• Responsi&e 1A
• le6i$ility and Creati&ity
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)#inking Big
• Could c'ange landscape o) social ser&icereporting
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-)- as a rst e6peri*ent leading to %iderapplications
• 8e&elop e6pertise in inno&ati&e narrati&ee&aluation
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8/17/2019 SenseMaker Lunch and Learn Final
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W#at story are "e tryingto tell and "#o is telling
it%
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8/17/2019 SenseMaker Lunch and Learn Final
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