senate department of urban development unit ix d: air pollution and noise control, m. lutz 1 what...
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1
1Senate department of urban development
Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz
What urban air quality managers want to know What urban air quality managers want to know from modelersfrom modelers
and what they want them to deliver for the NEC reviewand what they want them to deliver for the NEC review
Martin LutzSenate Department for Urban Development, Berlin
Directorate IX, Environment Policy
brief recap: what AQ legislation wants AQ managers to do?
emerging requirements for modelling
EU context: revision of NEC & CAFE Directive
problems and some conclusions
1
2Senate department of urban development
Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz
attainment date [2005 for PM10, 2010 for NO2]: limit value must be met everywhere*
time
max
. con
cent
ratio
n in
the
aggl
omer
atio
n or
zon
e
above margin of tolerance: AQ plans&programsto develop so that EU limit values are met by the attainment date
below limit value: pollution levels reported. maintain good air quality
between limit value and margin of tolerance: pollution levels reported to Commission, if needed, take measures so that limit value are met by attainment date
now
EU limitvalue
max
. con
cent
ratio
n in
the
aggl
omer
atio
n or
zon
e
*where people are directly or indirectly exposed for a period which is significant in relation to the averaging period of the limit value
attainment date [2005 for PM10, 2010 for NO2]: limit value must be met everywhere*
time
max
. con
cent
ratio
n in
the
aggl
omer
atio
n or
zon
e
above margin of tolerance: AQ plans&programsto develop so that EU limit values are met by the attainment date
below limit value: pollution levels reported. maintain good air quality
between limit value and margin of tolerance: pollution levels reported to Commission, if needed, take measures so that limit value are met by attainment date
now
EU limitvalue
max
. con
cent
ratio
n in
the
aggl
omer
atio
n or
zon
e
*where people are directly or indirectly exposed for a period which is significant in relation to the averaging period of the limit value
requirements for AQ managementrequirements for AQ management as set out as set out in EU Framework Directivein EU Framework Directive
exceedances of Alert thresholds
exceedances of limit values
draw up ashort-term short-term action planaction plan
(smog alarm, temporarily suspending
polluting activities, e.g.
traffic ban)
draw up anaction planaction plan withwith
measures to be taken measures to be taken in the short-termin the short-term
action plans if limit values are (likely to be) still exceeded
&&draw up a
(long-term) long-term) plan&programplan&program
1
3Senate department of urban development
Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz
AQ Plans&Programmes (P&Ps)AQ Plans&Programmes (P&Ps) scope for application of scope for application of modelsmodels
Requisite issues to be dealt within a Plan& Program…. Is there a problem with air pollution?Is there a problem with air pollution?
assessmentassessment of the air pollution against the AQ limit values Area of non-compliance, trends
Where does it come from, who’s to blame & for how much?Where does it come from, who’s to blame & for how much? sourcesource analysis
scales: local, urban, regional, continental source apportionment
source sectors: transport, industry, domestic, …
Are current measures sufficientAre current measures sufficient for compliance ? Estimate impact of current measures and legislationEstimate impact of current measures and legislation
includes effects of national and EU-wide measures
If not, which extra measures to take? If not, which extra measures to take? will limit values be met?will limit values be met? Estimate effect of additional measuresEstimate effect of additional measures planned
Further possible long-term measureslong-term measures & their benefits
1
4Senate department of urban development
Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz
• 450 km road sections in non-450 km road sections in non-attainmentattainment
• 190.000 affected residents190.000 affected residents
24h limit valueannual limit value
current current situation (base year 2002) situation (base year 2002) modelled modelled PM10PM10 in street canyons in street canyons
1
5Senate department of urban development
Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz
by banning road traffic by banning road traffic in selected areas we in selected areas we
were achieving a were achieving a significant reduction of significant reduction of
PM10 pollutionPM10 pollution
AQ assessment and resulting actionAQ assessment and resulting action the conventional wisdom the conventional wisdom
we need a stronger commitment for we need a stronger commitment for modelling in the new AQ Directivemodelling in the new AQ Directive
1
6Senate department of urban development
Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz
AQ Plans&Programmes (P&Ps)AQ Plans&Programmes (P&Ps) Structural Structural templatetemplate required by EU law required by EU law
Requisite issues to be dealt within a Plan& Program…. Is there a problem with air pollution?Is there a problem with air pollution?
assessmentassessment of the air pollution against the AQ limit values Area of non-compliance, trends
Where does it come from, who’s to blame & for how much?Where does it come from, who’s to blame & for how much? sourcesource analysis
scales: local, urban, regional, continental source apportionment
source sectors: transport, industry, domestic, …
AreAre current measures sufficient current measures sufficient for compliance ? EstimateEstimate impact of current measures and legislation impact of current measures and legislation
includes effects of national and EU-wide measures
If not, which extra measures to take? If not, which extra measures to take? will limit values be met?will limit values be met? EstimateEstimate effect of additional measures effect of additional measures planned
Further possible long-term measureslong-term measures & their benefits
1
7Senate department of urban development
Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz
requirements for modellingrequirements for modelling with respect to with respect to timetime scales/resolution scales/resolution
modelling is essential in all stages and levels of AQ modelling is essential in all stages and levels of AQ management !!management !!
P&Ps P&Ps usually have a usually have a long-termlong-term scope (5-10 years) scope (5-10 years) short-term ad-hocshort-term ad-hoc measures (smog-alert) measures (smog-alert) looseloose relevancerelevance
limited effectiveness for abatement of PM and NO2 peakslimited effectiveness for abatement of PM and NO2 peaks large-scale PM background and transportlarge-scale PM background and transport non-linearity of NO-NO2 conversion, strong dependency on meteonon-linearity of NO-NO2 conversion, strong dependency on meteo
health effects dominated by long-term exposurehealth effects dominated by long-term exposure measures ”to be taken in the short-term” for limit value measures ”to be taken in the short-term” for limit value
compliancecompliance mostly durable measures to be implemented fairly quickly
(1 year) new revised AQ Directive: new revised AQ Directive:
no short-term actionno short-term action plans for attainment of plans for attainment of limit valueslimit values no need to resolve single pollution peaks or episodes ! simulation of frequency distribution is sufficient but need to cover several years so as to compensate
meteo fluctuations
1
8Senate department of urban development
Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz
draw up a(long-term)long-term) P&P, P&P, including measures including measures taken asap after the compliance datetaken asap after the compliance date
requirements for AQ managementrequirements for AQ management as set out as set out in EU Framework Directivein EU Framework Directive
exceedances of Alert thresholds
exceedances of limit values
draw up ashort-term short-term action planaction plan
(smog alarm, temporarily suspending
polluting activities, e.g.
traffic ban)
attainment date [2005 for PM10, 2010 for NO2]: limit value must be met everywhere*
time
max
. co
nce
ntr
atio
n in
th
e ag
glo
mer
atio
n o
r zo
ne
marginoftolerance
above margin of tolerance:AQ plans&programsto develop so that EU limit values are met by the attainment date
below limit value:pollution levels reported. maintaingood air quality
between limit value and margin of tolerance: pollution levels reported to Commission, if needed, take measures so that limit value are met by attainment date
now
EU limitvalue
max
. co
nce
ntr
atio
n in
th
e ag
glo
mer
atio
n o
r zo
ne
*where people are directly or indirectly exposed for a period which is significant in relation to the averaging period of the limit value
attainment date [2005 for PM10, 2010 for NO2]: limit value must be met everywhere*
time
max
. co
nce
ntr
atio
n in
th
e ag
glo
mer
atio
n o
r zo
ne
marginoftolerance
above margin of tolerance:AQ plans&programsto develop so that EU limit values are met by the attainment date
below limit value:pollution levels reported. maintaingood air quality
between limit value and margin of tolerance: pollution levels reported to Commission, if needed, take measures so that limit value are met by attainment date
now
EU limitvalue
max
. co
nce
ntr
atio
n in
th
e ag
glo
mer
atio
n o
r zo
ne
*where people are directly or indirectly exposed for a period which is significant in relation to the averaging period of the limit value
1
9Senate department of urban development
Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz
requirements for modellingrequirements for modelling with respect to with respect to timetime scales/resolution scales/resolution
modelling is essential in all stages and levels of AQ modelling is essential in all stages and levels of AQ management !!management !!
P&Ps P&Ps usually have a usually have a long-termlong-term scope (5-10 years) scope (5-10 years) short-term ad-hocshort-term ad-hoc measures (smog-alert) measures (smog-alert) looseloose relevancerelevance
limited effectiveness for abatement of PM and NO2 peakslimited effectiveness for abatement of PM and NO2 peaks large-scale PM background and transportlarge-scale PM background and transport non-linearity of NO-NO2 conversion, strong dependency on meteonon-linearity of NO-NO2 conversion, strong dependency on meteo
health effects dominated by long-term exposurehealth effects dominated by long-term exposure measures ”to be taken in the short-term” for limit value measures ”to be taken in the short-term” for limit value
compliancecompliance mostly durable measures to be implemented fairly quickly
(1 year) new revised AQ Directive: new revised AQ Directive:
no short-term actionno short-term action plans for attainment of plans for attainment of limit valueslimit values no need to resolve single pollution peaks or episodes !no need to resolve single pollution peaks or episodes ! simulation of frequency distribution is sufficientsimulation of frequency distribution is sufficient but need to cover several years so as to compensate but need to cover several years so as to compensate
meteo fluctuationsmeteo fluctuations
1
10Senate department of urban development
Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz
requirements for modellingrequirements for modelling with respect to with respect to spatialspatial scales/resolution scales/resolution
PM10 [µg/m³]
urban background
regional background
hemispheric/natural background
Urban areas countryside
1015
20
30
25
35
40 Traffic, local sources
monitoring sites
total urban contribution relevant for AQ LV compliance
urban increment
hot spot increment
1
11Senate department of urban development
Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz
requirements for modellingrequirements for modelling with respect to with respect to spatialspatial scales/resolution scales/resolution
ConclusionsConclusions relevant for modelling…. hot spot incrementhot spot increment needs micro-scale modelling (e.g. street canyon)
notnot muchmuch relevancerelevance within the NECNEC review quitequite relevantrelevant with respect to AQ LVLV compliance
for Commission/Council/EPCommission/Council/EP: are vehicle emission standards sufficientsufficient to curb hot spot increment ?
for locallocal AQ management: impact of traffic management/reduction, vehicle fleet renewal
urbanurban incrementincrement needs resolution down to 1x1 km needs resolution down to 1x1 km22
quite quite relevantrelevant for for NECNEC review & AQ review & AQ LVLV compliance compliance regionalregional backgroundbackground needs resolution ~ needs resolution ~ 10x10 km10x10 km
absolutelyabsolutely essentialessential for NEC review for NEC review importantimportant for AQ for AQ LVLV compliance compliance dominates also dominates also urbanurban exposureexposure gainsgains importance with transition to importance with transition to PM2.5PM2.5
we need to resolve these 3 scales properlywe need to resolve these 3 scales properly we need (sort of) multi-scale modelling we need (sort of) multi-scale modelling
for AQ management AND for NEC reviewfor AQ management AND for NEC review
1
12Senate department of urban development
Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz
change in spatial distributionchange in spatial distribution PM10 vs PM2.5 PM10 vs PM2.5
Origin of PM10 in Berlin*
local traffic increment
26%
urban background increment
26%
regional background
48%
*based on measurements
**based on modelling
Origin of PM2.5 in Berlin
local traffic increment*
16%
regional background**
59%
urban background increment**
25%
1
13Senate department of urban development
Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz
requirements for modellingrequirements for modelling with respect to with respect to spatialspatial scales/resolution scales/resolution
ConclusionsConclusions relevant for modelling…. hot spot incrementhot spot increment needs micro-scale modelling (e.g. street canyon)
notnot muchmuch relevancerelevance within the NECNEC review quitequite relevantrelevant with respect to AQ LVLV compliance
for CommissionCommission: are vehicle emission standards sufficientsufficient to curb hot spot increment ?
for locallocal AQ management: impact of traffic management/reduction, vehicle fleet renewal
urbanurban incrementincrement needs resolution down to 1x1 km needs resolution down to 1x1 km22
quite quite relevantrelevant for for NECNEC review & AQ review & AQ LVLV compliance compliance regionalregional backgroundbackground needs resolution ~ needs resolution ~ 10x10 km10x10 km
absolutelyabsolutely essentialessential for NEC review for NEC review importantimportant for AQ for AQ LVLV compliance compliance dominates also dominates also urbanurban exposureexposure gainsgains importance with transition to importance with transition to PM2.5PM2.5
we need to we need to resolveresolve these 3 scales these 3 scales properlyproperly we need (sort of) we need (sort of) multi-scale modellingmulti-scale modelling
for AQ management for AQ management ANDAND for NEC review for NEC review
1
14Senate department of urban development
Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz
1x1 km2
~30x30 km2
4x4 km2
Air pollution control planning in Berlin Air pollution control planning in Berlin multi-scale model calculations multi-scale model calculations
street canyon
1
15Senate department of urban development
Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz
Long-term trend of PM10 and EC in & around BerlinLong-term trend of PM10 and EC in & around Berlin differentiated for regional & urban scale differentiated for regional & urban scale
regional background consists of city periphery data in upwind position
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
PM
10 [
µg
/m³]
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
9.0
10.5
12.0
EC
[µ
g/m
³]
regional background
urban contribution (traffic + background)
EC traffic
2005: EC bis Okt, ohne WR
1
16Senate department of urban development
Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz
impact of various control scenarios for 2010 impact of various control scenarios for 2010 differentiated for regional & differentiated for regional & urban scaleurban scale
Expected decrease of PM10 in Berlin
-10% -10% -10% -10%
-8% -10% -11% -15%
-4% -13% -24% -30%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2002 CLE 2010 LEZ 2010 LEZ StEP
2010
"MFR"
ann
ual
ave
rag
e P
M10
[µ
g/m
³]
local increment
urban increment
regional BG
-9% -11% -13% -14%
1
17Senate department of urban development
Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz
requirements for modellingrequirements for modelling with respect to ( with respect to (cost-)effectiveness cost-)effectiveness
where is it most (cost-)effective to take action ??? answer is essential both for NEC review …answer is essential both for NEC review …
find the right balance between measures to curb …find the right balance between measures to curb … the regional backgroundthe regional background the urban incrementthe urban increment
aim to achieve the maximum benefit (% exposure reduction) aim to assist compliance with AQ LV
…and for AQ LV attainment local AQ management to find balance between actionlocal AQ management to find balance between action
to reduce the hot spot incrementto reduce the hot spot increment to lower the urban (background) incrementto lower the urban (background) increment
for CommissionCommission to identify need to tighten EU regulation on emissions (vehicle standards, LCP, IPPC)
need need quantitative estimatesquantitative estimates of control potential of of control potential of urban measuresurban measures and their costs and their costs including economic measuresincluding economic measures
need to feed it somehow need to feed it somehow into IAMinto IAM
1
18Senate department of urban development
Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz
conclusion conclusion what do AQ managers want modelers to deliver?what do AQ managers want modelers to deliver?
in generalin general models that models that resolveresolve the the spatialspatial scales properly scales properly models which resolve the models which resolve the frequency distributionfrequency distribution properly properly models which are fast enough for models which are fast enough for multi-annual runsmulti-annual runs models which assist in source analysis models which assist in source analysis (multi-components)(multi-components)
in relation to thein relation to the NEC NEC review review models which take themodels which take the urban increment urban increment into accountinto account
city deltacity delta an approach to enshrine thean approach to enshrine the urban contribution into IAM urban contribution into IAM (integrated assessment) models (integrated assessment) models which assist in striking awhich assist in striking a fair balance fair balance
between between local local action andaction and EU measures EU measures in relation toin relation to forecast forecast AQ AQ LV complianceLV compliance multi-scale model framework which allows a compliance estimatemulti-scale model framework which allows a compliance estimate
for the Commission for the Commission to review the PMxx LVs within CAFÉ IIto review the PMxx LVs within CAFÉ II CAFÉ I has largely failed to estimate the scope for complianceCAFÉ I has largely failed to estimate the scope for compliance
for local AQ managers for local AQ managers to check whether/by when their P&Ps achieve to check whether/by when their P&Ps achieve compliance of LVs compliance of LVs
many P&Ps failed to provide any estimate of compliance many P&Ps failed to provide any estimate of compliance
1
19Senate department of urban development
Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz
6th Environment Action Program
Controlling emissions
.....to achieve levels of air qualitylevels of air quality that protectprotect all people effectively againstagainst recognised health effectshealth effects from air pollution and take into account the protection of the environment
National Emission Ceilings
EU-legislation on emission control of certain type of installations
Stationary sources
Improving Air Quality
AQ Framework Directive
AQ Framework Directive
SO2, PMPM, NO2NO2, lead
AQ standards basic assessment criteria action plans, reporting
Benzene, CO
Ozone
Heavy metalsPAH
trigger for further measures
Air pollution control in the EUAir pollution control in the EU
EU-Standards for vehicle emission and fuel quality(EURO III - V)
Mobile sources
Complementary measures on a
locallocal level
achieve Air Quality standards
Economic measures Road pricingFiscal incentives for BAT Energy taxesScrappage schemesRestricted access
Voluntary agreementswith industry,e.g. with ACEA
Acidification, Eutrophication
1
20Senate department of urban development
Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz
Berlin‘s „Luftreinhalteplan“ on the web: Berlin‘s „Luftreinhalteplan“ on the web:
http://www.stadtentwicklung.berlin.dehttp://www.stadtentwicklung.berlin.de/umwelt/luftqualitaet/de//umwelt/luftqualitaet/de/luftreinhalteplanluftreinhalteplan//
Thank you !Thank you !