senaste klimatnytt - johan rockström
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Hagainitiativet26 oktober 2011
Prof. Johan RockströmStockholm Resilience Centre
Stockholm Environment Institute
Senaste Klimatnytt
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• Humanity has reached a planetary saturation point
• A resilient biosphere the basis for humen development
• It is not only about climate change• A great transformation to global
sustainability necessary, possible, and desirable
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”When reality is changing faster than theory suggests it should, a certain amount of nervousness is a reasonable response”The Economist
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(Meinsheuzen et al., in prep)
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Source: NASA GISS data, Jan 2011
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Photo: CC Jason Auch / Azote
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Photo: S Zeff / Azote
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Reefs at risk revisited, 2011
• About 75 % of coral reefs threatened by local and global pressures.
• Climate change, ocean acidification, overfishing, destructive fishing, coastal development, and pollution.
• Since first Reefs at Risk in 1997 threats have increased on 30 % of reefs.
• Unless steps are taken threatened reefs will increase to more than 90 percent by 2030 and to nearly all reefs by 2050.
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Photo: B Christensen / Azote
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Photo: B Christensen / Azote
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Total Forest Sink 2,4 ± 0,4 Pg C yr-1
Total Forest Source1,3 ± 0,5 Pg C yr-1
Net Forest Sink1,1 ± 0,8 Pg C yr-1
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SEI Report
BASIC Enters the stage
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Mitigation Finance
Technology Adaptation
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Den mänskligt orsakade klimatförändringen fortsätter, med tidigare och allvarligare konsekvenser än förväntat.
Biosfärens resiliens nu i centrum.
Inte mycket att förvänta från Durban
Annex 1 större bromskloss än Annex 2
Fortsättning på Kyoto viktigt för utvecklingsländer (BASIC, Africa Union); EU Ok med ”2nd commitment period”, dock nytt ”Kyoto2” med bindande åtagande för alla 2015
Många länder dock komfortabla med ”Accord” modellen, baserat på ”Pledge and Review”
Risk, utan framsteg på Mitigation och Finance agendan blir det svårt att befästa framsteg på Technology och Adaptation
Vart är vi på väg?