seminarios tides el papel del clima
DESCRIPTION
El papel del clima en la demanda del turismo. El punto de vista de la región emisora Impartido por Juan Luis Eugenio Resumen: El debate en torno al cambio climático y su impacto potencial sobre la economía, ha despertado el interés por comprender mejor el papel del clima en la demanda de turismo. A su vez, la coyuntura actual pone de manifiesto la disponibilidad a pagar de los europeos por hacer turismo en situaciones de ajuste presupuestario. En la presentación está previsto hacer un breve repaso al tratamiento del clima en la literatura, entendiendo las dificultades y los progresos que se han ido realizando al respecto. Con más profundidad se trata el papel del clima en las regiones emisoras. En concreto, se muestra la heterogeneidad que existe entre las regiones europeas en cuanto a sus preferencias por viajar. Estas preferencias están condicionadas por su capacidad de pago y por su clima. Se demuestra cómo ante la crisis actual, la sensibilidad a hacer recortes presupuestarios es muy variante y depende de las expectativas sobre el crecimiento económico y del clima en el lugar de origen.TRANSCRIPT
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Its relevance depends on pursued activities:Outdoors
• Sun & beach• Walking - Trekking• Summer & Winter sports
Indoors• Cultural• Shopping• Business• VFR
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1. Inbound tourism demand(Good) Climate as a pull factor“Given the same tourism resources, I choose
destinations with good weather”
2. Outbound tourism demand(Bad) Climate as a push factor
“I travel abroad when I want to enjoy good weather”
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Tourismresource
Kind ofactivity
Climate in origin
River
Forest
Beach
Fishing
Walking
Climbing
Bad climate
Lake
Sea
Snowed mountain
Relaxing
Cycling
Good cl imate
HETEROGENEITY IN DESTINATIONS HETEROGENEITY IN
TOURISTS
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Let´s have a look at the literature
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Traditionally:• Not very prolific on this topic:
− Dataset limitations− Limited policymaking
Nowadays:• Awaken interest due to climate change
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1 if 15 35
0 otherwise
1 if 10
0 if 10
1 if 60
0 if 60
rmrm
rmrm rm rm rm
rm
rm rm rm
rmrm
rm
ATDT
DRDDR W DT DR
DRDR DDR DTR
TRDTR
TR
≤ ≤ =
≤ = = ⋅ > = ⋅ ≤ = >
12
1r rm
m
W W=
= ∑
Step 1: Hurdles
Step 2: Final Index
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4 possible choices: Not travelling: (0,0) Domestic tourism only: (1,0) International tourism only: (0,1) Both domestic and international: (1,1)
Econometric model Non-independent decisions Seemingly unrelated bivariate probit Test of independence: ρ≠0
If ρ=0, two independent probits is the correct approach
If ρ≠0, bivariate probit is the correct approach
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Kernel distribution of the climate index
0.0
5.1
.15
Den
sity
0 3 6 9 12
Climate Index
Kernel density estimateNormal density
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Probability of travelling and income
(Contour analysis)
NONE
ABROAD
BOTH
DOMESTIC
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Probability of travelling and income
(Non-parametric analysis)
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
Probability
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
Income
None
Domestic only
Abroad only
Both
NONE
ABROAD
BOTH
DOMESTIC
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0
.2
.4
.6
.8
Probability
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
Income
None
Domestic only
Abroad only
Both
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
Probability
0 1000 2000 3000
Income
None
Domestic only
Abroad only
Both
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
Probability
0 1000 2000 3000
Income
None
Domestic only
Abroad only
Both
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
Probability
0 1000 2000 3000
Income
None
Domestic only
Abroad only
Both
UK Germany
France Italy
ABROAD ABROAD
ABROADABROAD
DOMESTIC DOMESTIC
DOMESTICDOMESTIC
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Climate in the origin and
destination choice
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
Probability
0 3 6 9 12
Climate Index
Domestic
Abroad
ABROAD
DOMESTIC
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Contour of the probability of travelling
and climate
LoyaltySimilar probability
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Participation domestically-only
(Bivariate probit model)
Domestic only01 - 1213 - 1516 - 1819 - 2122 - 2526 - 2829 - 3233 - 3637 - 4041 - 5455 - 77
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Participation abroad-only
(Bivariate probit model)
Abroad only0 - 23 - 78 - 1112 - 1516 - 1920 - 2425 - 2829 - 3132 - 3536 - 3940 - 4546 - 52
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