semi annual board update - w. p. carey school of business...5% spdr consumer staples wpc consumer...
TRANSCRIPT
Semi‐Annual Board Update
I d i Introduction
Portfolio engineering methodology Portfolio engineering methodology
Fund compositionFund composition
Performance
Current economic conditions and future b lrebalancing
Fund Manager – Joe Downs Amol Agarwal Andre Shearer Andy Harper Ben Hawthorne Jameson Bennett Jon Kielmeyer Praveen Gujarj
f Global diversification across asset classes
f l l Core portfolio to preserve capital
d l l l Fundamental analysis overlay
Learning experience
Blend/Style/Focus
Asset Allocation
Blend/Style/FocusResearch and Gathering Data
F d t l
Industry Allocation
Fundamental Analysis and Security Selection
Collect Historical Calculate Variance, d d
Calculate Variance, Returns for the
Universe of Asset Classes
Expected Return, and Covariance for Various
Asset Classes
,Expected Return, and
Sharpe Ratio for Portfolio
Ch t•Charter• Priors
Adjust Asset Class WPC Gl b l Di ifi d OptimizationAsset Class Weights
WPC Global Diversified Portfolio
Optimization
Fund Composition ‐ Broad Asset Classes
16%
22%
12%US Equities ‐ SPY
US Equities ‐ Individual
50%
Stocks
International Funds
Fixed Income
Build a global diversified portfolio Gain exposure to markets with low pcovariance with US equities
Gain access to emerging markets Gain access to emerging marketsModerate US economic growth expectation
Research on global economic situation and individual countries
f l b l Portfolio optimization to obtain initial portfolio weight
d f f l h f Modify portfolio weight after group discussion
l d d l Select ETFs to gain access to individual countries
Short list of ETFs that are in line with the fund’s objectivej
Select ETFs with five years of history Analysis of ETF holdings Analysis of ETF holdings Select ETFs with high liquidity and low expense ratios
Diversification Gain access to fixed income markets Low covariance with US equities Defensive investment in the case of Defensive investment in the case of double‐dip recession
Duration and average maturity IntermediateIntermediate Inflation expectationsCredit q alit I t t R t S iti it Credit quality
ETF with low feesHigh
Interest Rate Sensitivity
uality
VGIT Medium
Low
Credit Qu
Low Medium High
Core/satellite strategy Capital preservation Fundamental analysis and learning experience Fundamental analysis and learning experience
Industry allocationy Selected industries based on optimization and priors
Security selectionSecurity selection LargeCap blend Fundamental analysis
USEquity AllocationUS Equity Allocation
Industrials
9%10%24%
Materials
Financials
7%
10%
8%11%
12%
9%Energy
IT
Consumer Discretionary/Retail
Consumer Staples
Real Estate
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index – 65%
k d MSCI Emerging Markets Index – 23%
l l d d Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index – 12%
Performance SummaryTotal Return 1.03%Benchmark Return 3.49%Alpha ‐2.46%Benchmark Sharpe 0.78 Portfolio Sharpe 0.24
Attribution MetricsAsset Allocation 0.70%Security Selection ‐2.02%Interaction Effect ‐1.13%
Recession Declared Over and Economy Recovering
Jobless Claims Dropping Following RecessionJobless Claims Dropping Following Recession
Manufacturing Showing Signs of Improvement Following Recession
Moderate recovery through Q4 2010 and 2011
h Overweight equities
d h f d d d f Underweight fixed income and defensive positions
f Portfolio optimization/engineering process
f d f d Importance of diversification and asset allocation
Bloomberg and other research tools
Strength of efficient markets
8%
6%
2%
4%
0%
2%
‐2%
10/4/10 10/11/10 10/18/10 10/25/10 11/1/10 11/8/10 11/15/10 11/22/10
MSCI EM
WFC I tl
‐4%WFC Intl
i h
Interest Rate Sensitivity
CumulativeReturn
VGIT ‐1.00%
High
Medium
Credit Quality
Barclays ‐0.93%Low
Low Medium High
CumulativeReturn
MOS 19.83%FCX 15.82%GLD 4.45%WPC Mining 13.03%SPDR XME 15 60%SPDR XME 15.60%
10%
12%SPDR Technology
WPC Technology Securities
%
6%
8%
0%
2%
4%
‐4%
‐2%10/4/2010 10/11/2010 10/18/2010 10/25/2010 11/1/2010 11/8/2010 11/15/2010 11/22/2010
‐8%
‐6%
10%SPDR Fi
8%
SPDR Finance
WFC Finance
4%
6%
%
2%
‐2%
0%
10/4/10 10/11/10 10/18/10 10/25/10 11/1/10 11/8/10 11/15/10 11/22/10
‐4%
10%
WPC IndustrialsCumulative
8%
WPC Industrials
SPDR IndustrialsReturn
ETN 18.94%LMT ‐2.97%MMM ‐2.36%WPC IND 2 99%
4%
6%WPC IND 2.99%SPDR XLI 6.42%
2%
0%
‐2%
10/4/2010 10/18/2010 11/1/2010 11/15/2010
CumulativeCumulativeReturn
ReturnSE 7.73%NOV 41.61%XOM 14.38%WPC Energy 19.48%SPDR XLE 12 56%
SE 7.73%NOV 41.61%XOM 14.38%WPC Energy 19.48%SPDR XLE 12 56%SPDR XLE 12.56%SPDR XLE 12.56%
CumulativeReturn
TGT 6.53%HD ‐1.49%WPC Retail 2.20%SPDR XRT 13.86%
10%
SPDR REITCumulativeR
6%
8% WPC REIT SecuritiesReturn
VTR ‐0.46%PSA 0.98%WPC REIT 0.14%
4%
SPDR RWR 1.98%
0%
2%
‐2%
%
10/4/2010 10/18/2010 11/1/2010 11/15/2010
‐4%
6%CumulativeReturn
4%
5% SPDR Consumer Staples
WPC Consumer Staples
CL 3.47%KMB ‐5.12%K ‐3.16%WPC CS ‐1.20%SPDR XLP 3.45%
%
3%
4%
1%
2%
‐1%
0%
10/4/2010 10/11/2010 10/18/2010 10/25/2010 11/1/2010 11/8/2010 11/15/2010
‐3%
‐2%
KMB Announces disappointing quarterly earnings