semi annual board update - w. p. carey school of business...5% spdr consumer staples wpc consumer...

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SemiAnnual Board Update

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Page 1: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

Semi‐Annual Board Update

Page 2: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

I d i Introduction

Portfolio engineering methodology Portfolio engineering methodology

Fund compositionFund composition

Performance

Current economic conditions and future b lrebalancing

Page 3: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

Fund Manager – Joe Downs Amol Agarwal Andre Shearer Andy Harper Ben Hawthorne Jameson Bennett Jon Kielmeyer Praveen Gujarj

Page 4: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

f Global diversification across asset classes

f l l Core portfolio to preserve capital

d l l l Fundamental analysis overlay

Learning experience

Page 5: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

Blend/Style/Focus

Asset Allocation

Blend/Style/FocusResearch and Gathering Data

F d t l 

Industry Allocation

Fundamental Analysis and Security Selection

Page 6: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

Collect Historical  Calculate Variance, d d

Calculate Variance, Returns for the 

Universe of Asset Classes

Expected Return, and Covariance  for Various 

Asset Classes

,Expected Return, and 

Sharpe Ratio for Portfolio

Ch t•Charter• Priors

Adjust Asset Class WPC Gl b l Di ifi d  OptimizationAsset Class Weights

WPC Global Diversified Portfolio

Optimization

Page 7: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

Fund Composition ‐ Broad Asset Classes

16%

22%

12%US Equities ‐ SPY

US Equities ‐ Individual 

50%

Stocks

International Funds

Fixed Income

Page 8: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

Build a global diversified portfolio Gain exposure to markets with low pcovariance with US equities

Gain access to emerging markets Gain access to emerging marketsModerate US economic growth expectation

Page 9: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

Research on global economic situation and individual countries

f l b l Portfolio optimization to obtain initial portfolio weight

d f f l h f Modify portfolio weight after group discussion

l d d l Select ETFs to gain access to individual countries

Page 10: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

Short list of ETFs that are in line with the fund’s objectivej

Select ETFs with five years of history Analysis of ETF holdings Analysis of ETF holdings Select ETFs with high liquidity and low expense ratios

Page 11: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2
Page 12: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

Diversification Gain access to fixed income markets Low covariance with US equities Defensive investment in the case of  Defensive investment in the case of double‐dip recession

Page 13: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

Duration and average maturity IntermediateIntermediate Inflation expectationsCredit q alit I t t R t S iti it Credit quality

ETF with low feesHigh

Interest Rate Sensitivity

uality

VGIT Medium

Low

Credit Qu

Low  Medium  High

Page 14: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

Core/satellite strategy Capital preservation Fundamental analysis and learning experience Fundamental analysis and learning experience

Industry allocationy Selected industries based on optimization and priors

Security selectionSecurity selection LargeCap blend Fundamental analysis

Page 15: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

USEquity AllocationUS Equity Allocation   

Industrials

9%10%24%

Materials

Financials

7%

10%

8%11%

12%

9%Energy

IT

Consumer Discretionary/Retail

Consumer Staples

Real Estate

Page 16: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index – 65%

k d MSCI Emerging Markets Index – 23%

l l d d Barclays  Capital Aggregate Bond Index – 12%

Page 17: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

Performance SummaryTotal Return 1.03%Benchmark Return 3.49%Alpha ‐2.46%Benchmark Sharpe 0.78         Portfolio Sharpe 0.24       

Page 18: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

Attribution MetricsAsset Allocation 0.70%Security Selection ‐2.02%Interaction Effect ‐1.13%

Page 19: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

Recession Declared Over and Economy Recovering

Page 20: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

Jobless Claims Dropping Following RecessionJobless Claims Dropping Following Recession

Page 21: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

Manufacturing Showing Signs of Improvement Following Recession

Page 22: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

Moderate recovery through Q4 2010 and 2011

h Overweight equities

d h f d d d f Underweight fixed income and defensive positions

Page 23: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

f Portfolio optimization/engineering process

f d f d Importance of diversification and asset allocation

Bloomberg and other research tools

Strength of efficient markets

Page 24: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2
Page 25: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2
Page 26: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

8%

6%

2%

4%

0%

2%

‐2%

10/4/10 10/11/10 10/18/10 10/25/10 11/1/10 11/8/10 11/15/10 11/22/10

MSCI EM

WFC I tl

‐4%WFC Intl

Page 27: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

i h

Interest Rate Sensitivity

CumulativeReturn

VGIT ‐1.00%

High

Medium

Credit Quality

Barclays ‐0.93%Low

Low  Medium  High

Page 28: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

CumulativeReturn

MOS 19.83%FCX 15.82%GLD 4.45%WPC Mining 13.03%SPDR XME 15 60%SPDR XME 15.60%

Page 29: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

10%

12%SPDR Technology

WPC Technology Securities

%

6%

8%

0%

2%

4%

‐4%

‐2%10/4/2010 10/11/2010 10/18/2010 10/25/2010 11/1/2010 11/8/2010 11/15/2010 11/22/2010

‐8%

‐6%

Page 30: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

10%SPDR Fi

8%

SPDR Finance

WFC Finance

4%

6%

%

2%

‐2%

0%

10/4/10 10/11/10 10/18/10 10/25/10 11/1/10 11/8/10 11/15/10 11/22/10

‐4%

Page 31: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

10%

WPC IndustrialsCumulative

8%

WPC Industrials

SPDR IndustrialsReturn

ETN 18.94%LMT ‐2.97%MMM ‐2.36%WPC IND 2 99%

4%

6%WPC IND 2.99%SPDR XLI 6.42%

2%

0%

‐2%

10/4/2010 10/18/2010 11/1/2010 11/15/2010

Page 32: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

CumulativeCumulativeReturn

ReturnSE 7.73%NOV 41.61%XOM 14.38%WPC Energy 19.48%SPDR XLE 12 56%

SE 7.73%NOV 41.61%XOM 14.38%WPC Energy 19.48%SPDR XLE 12 56%SPDR XLE 12.56%SPDR XLE 12.56%

Page 33: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

CumulativeReturn

TGT 6.53%HD ‐1.49%WPC Retail 2.20%SPDR XRT 13.86%

Page 34: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

10%

SPDR REITCumulativeR

6%

8% WPC REIT SecuritiesReturn

VTR ‐0.46%PSA 0.98%WPC REIT 0.14%

4%

SPDR RWR 1.98%

0%

2%

‐2%

%

10/4/2010 10/18/2010 11/1/2010 11/15/2010

‐4%

Page 35: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2

6%CumulativeReturn

4%

5% SPDR Consumer Staples

WPC Consumer Staples

CL 3.47%KMB ‐5.12%K ‐3.16%WPC CS ‐1.20%SPDR XLP 3.45%

%

3%

4%

1%

2%

‐1%

0%

10/4/2010 10/11/2010 10/18/2010 10/25/2010 11/1/2010 11/8/2010 11/15/2010

‐3%

‐2%

KMB Announces disappointing quarterly earnings

Page 36: Semi Annual Board Update - W. P. Carey School of Business...5% SPDR Consumer Staples WPC Consumer Staples CL 3.47% KMB ‐5.12% K ‐3.16% WPC CS ‐1.20% SPDR XLP 3.45% % 3% 1% 2