Seeking hope in the

Anthropocene

Our journey to deep sustainability

Rod Oram’s presentation to SBN’s

The Inconvenient Conference

Auckland, August 29th, 2017

Rod.Oram@NZ2050.com / Twitter @RodOramNZ

+64 21 444 839 / Kiwiki on Facebook

Agenda

• Crisis

• New Zealand

• Hope

2

4

3

5

6

1

0

Glo

bal

Tem

pera

ture

(°C

)

IPCC Projections 2100 AD

Earth System moves to a new state? Severe challenge to contemporary civilisation. Possible collapse?

Summerhayes 2015

Committed

t

t The 6th Great Extinction

www.stockholmresilience.org/21/research/research-programmes/planetary-boundaries.html

Planetary boundaries

Biggest risks • Climate change

• Water crises

• Biodiversity loss and

ecosystem collapse

• Extreme weather events

• Natural catastrophes

• Food crises

• ...these are ecosystem issues

caused by the way we live

• …we have to learn to work with

the ecosystem, not against it

Monumental challenges • Are there technological and economic

pathways for big cuts in global emissions in next 20 years?

• …driven by massive R&D and business investment?

• Electricity? Yes!

• Transport? Yes!

• Industry & buildings? Yes!

• Agriculture? Some emerging!

• NZ should be a global leader ...but we’re showing no ambition yet

Dying to live

“The greatest challenge we face

is a philosophical one:

understanding that this civilization

is already dead.

The sooner we confront our situation

and realize that there is nothing

we can do to save ourselves…

...the sooner we can get down to the

difficult task of adapting, with

mortal humility, to the new reality”

Roy Scranton

Agenda

• Crisis

• New Zealand

• Hope

“…the shift...will be profound and widespread” • “…the shift from the old economy

to a new, low-emissions economy

will be profound and widespread,

transforming land use, the energy system,

production methods and technology,

regulatory frameworks and institutions,

and business and political culture.”

• New Zealand Productivity Commission

Low carbon economy, August 2017

• http://www.productivity.govt.nz/inquiry-content/3254?stage=2

• Final report, with recommendations due June 30, 2018

Our Paris commitment • NZ’s pledge is to reduce our

greenhouse gas emissions by

30% below 2005 levels by 2030

• …equivalent to

11% below 1990 levels by 2030

• Yet…

40% cut from 1990 levels by 2030

• …is California's bi-partisan,

mandated goal

• We’re missing our Paris

commitments by miles

• http://www.productivity.govt.nz/

inquiry-content/3254?stage=2

What we promise ...vs. we’re doing

We’ve got big urban problems…e.g.

N.B. Copenhagen aims to be carbon neutral by 2025

Our poor ecosystem record

• http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/environmental-reporting/environment-aotearoa-2015

• The Environmental Reporting Act of 2015 began a

concerted effort to collect and analyse data on a

consistent, national basis

• We were the last OECD country to do so

• ...and our historic data is inadequate, and some

significant gaps in current coverage remain

• Under this new reporting regime, Environment

Aotearoa 2015 was the first synthesis report

bringing together the individual domain reports in

their four-year cycle

Biodiversity • NZ is known for its biodiversity, with more

than 52,500 species of indigenous animals, plants, and fungi.

• About 90% of our land-based animals (including insects), nearly 80% of our plants, and 26% of our fungi are found only in New Zealand; and 38% of our marine animals live only in New Zealand waters

• Pests are a serious threat to our indigenous animals, plants, and habitats

• Possums, rats, and stoats are the most widespread of our pests – they are found across at least 94% of the country

Ecosystems • Of our 71 rare ecosystems

identified in 2014

- 18 were classified as

critically endangered

- 17 as endangered

- and 10 as vulnerable

• Inland and alpine systems

had the most rare

ecosystems (30), of which

16 were threatened

• 10 of 13 coastal &10 of 15

wetland ecosystems were

threatened

Wetlands • In 2008 wetlands

occupied about 249,776

ha of our land area

• …this is 10.1% of the

estimated pre-human

extent of 2,471,080 ha

• Glaciers

• We lost 36% of our

glacier ice volume

1978-2014

Rivers • Total nitrogen levels in rivers

increased 12%...

…with 60% of monitored sites

showing statistically significant

increases from 1989 to 2013

• Of our freshwater fish taxa,

72% of vertebrates and

34% of invertebrates

were classified as at risk or

threatened with extinction in

2013

Chris Corson-Scott. A Poet Writing Before the Falls and Freezing Works, Mataura, 2016

Threat to species • Eight of our 30

indigenous marine mammal species are threatened with extinction

• Of the 92 indigenous seabird species and subspecies that breed in New Zealand 35% are threatened with extinction. A further 55% are at risk of extinction

• …as are rare land species such as this skink

NZ farmers’ priorities

Sustainability?

Climate change?

OECD’s verdict • “New Zealand’s growth model...has started to show its environmental

limits, with increased GHG emissions, freshwater contamination and threats to biodiversity.

• “Addressing GHG emissions from agriculture, and especially dairy farming, should remain a priority...

• “...the need to further explore the economic opportunities that more sustainable uses could yield.

• “Developing a long-term vision for a transition towards a low-carbon, greener economy would help New Zealand defend the “green” reputation it has acquired at an international level.”

What do we want?

http://digitallibrary.landcareresearch.co.nz/cdm/ref/collection/p20022coll14/id/76

• …Landcare Research has asked us

Agenda

• Crisis

• New Zealand

• Hope

Cities are changing fundamentally • We’re bringing

nature back into our cities

• …to make them largely sufficient for energy, food & other resources

• …to be delightful, inspiring places to live and work

• …to restore our relationship with the ecosystem

© Michael Hall

Circular economy

• We need radical transformation...so all we do

works with nature, not against it

• Learning, borrowing, adapting from nature

• ...massive transformation of technology

• ...e.g. https://biomimicry.org

Biomimicry

Cellular agriculture

Vertical farming • ...an example in New Jersey:

AeroFarms, http://aerofarms.com

• New Yorker magazine Jan 2017 http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/01/09/the-vertical-farm

Raworth rewrites the OECD’s charter

Peter Bakker CEO, World Business Council for

Sustainable Development

Revolution • Led by John Elkington and others

• www.breakthroughcapitalism.com/

Breakthrough Criteria

• Future Ready

• Ecological foot-printing – e.g. Global Footprint Network

• Planetary Boundaries – e.g. Stockholm Resilience Centre

• Stranded Assets – e.g. Carbon Tracker

• Ambitious

• Environmental Profit & Loss – e.g. Puma with PricewaterhouseCoopers

• Zero emissions – e.g. Interface Zero Mission

Breakthrough Criteria

• Fair

• Sustainable Living – e.g. Unilever

• Social innovation & entrepreneurship

– e.g. Skoll Centre for Social Entrepreneurship

• Fair Trade

• Disruptive

• Biomimicry – e.g. Janine Benyus & Associates

• Circular Economy – e.g. Ellen Macarthur Foundation

• Cradle-to-Cradle – e.g. McDonough Braungart Design Chemistry

• Collaborative / sharing economy – e.g. Uber, Airbnb, Yerdle

Net Zero New Zealand • Very encouraging NZ roadmap to

a low carbon economy

• ...and the dangers of sticking where we are

• Commissioned by Globe-NZ (all-party group of

MPs), business and others

• Report produced by Vivid Economics of the UK

• Report, and slides from Beehive launch:

• http://www.vivideconomics.com/publications/

net-zero-in-new-zealand

Lots we can do now on agricultural GHGs

• …says the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Envivronment

• http://www.pce.parliament.nz/public

ations/climate-change-and-agriculture-understanding-the-biological-greenhouse-gases

Pure Advantage • One of the few thought leaders

on our big transition to a low carbon economy

• Business-backed advocates of

• ...clean technology

• ...low carbon

• ...deep sustainability

• http://pureadvantage.org/

Tuhoe’s Te Uru Taumatua • …the first Living Building in NZ...doing things in very distinctive ways

Hope in Aotearoa

• bwb.co.nz/books/three-cities

But now there are no more islands to be found

And the eye scans risky horizons of its own

In unsettled weather, and murmurs of the drowned

Haunt their familiar beaches –

Who navigates us towards what unknown

But not improbable provinces. Who reaches

A future down for us from the high shelf

Of spiritual daring?

Allen Curnow Landfall in Unknown Seas