security diagrams: assessing the risk of extreme climate ... · dörthe krömker (center for...

Dörthe Krömker (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Slide 1

Security Diagrams

Security Diagrams: Assessing the Risk ofExtreme Climate Events on SocietyFunded by German Research Ministry

Center for Environmental Systems Research,University of Kassel (Project Coordination)Joseph AlcamoDörthe KrömkerFrank Eierdanz

Adelphi Research, BerlinAlexander CariusDennis Tänzler

Potsdam Institute for Climate ImpactResearchRichard KleinLilibeth Acosta-Michlik


Security Diagrams

Susceptibility

Envi

ronm

enta

l Str

ess

Not a crisis

Crisesevent

High probabilityof crises

Low probabilityof crises

Framework for Quantifying Vulnerability:Security Diagram

Focus on droughts


Security Diagrams

• Crisis – How can crisis events be identified?• Environmental Stress – What measures of environmental stress

best reflect society’s vulnerability to drought?• Susceptibility – How can susceptibility of society to drought be

quantified, and how is it defined by different disciplinaryperspectives?

Specific Research Questions


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Case Studies

Andhra Pradesh India

Algarve + Alentejo Portugal

Volgograd + Saratov Russia


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Crisis: A Serious disruption of the functioning of societies causingwidespread human or material losses as well as socio-culturalimpacts requiring political and social responses..


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Identifying Drought Crisis Events

Media analysis -- “Factiva” media data base (8000 media sources, local/regional/national)• Establish classes of “attributes” of crisis• Identify reliable local media• Tabulate recurrent (> 2 per month) reports of attributes


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Results of Media AnalysisExample – Southern Portugal, 1983

Attributes of crisis

Mandatoryelectricity-savingmeasures

Announce-ment of„emergency‘“for Alentejo

Reservoirsemptytowards endof year

Hydroelectricproductionseverelycurtailed.

Irrigationstronglyreduced

Sum

1.0

Social

(0.25)

Political

(0.25)

Energy &Industry

(0.25)

Agriculture

(0.25)


Security Diagrams

0,750,250,50,5Volga Region

1,01,01,01,01,0S. Portugal

0,51,00,250,75A. Pradesh

95949392919089888786858483828180Year19

First Estimate – Drought Crisis Events

13/48


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Security DiagramsWater Stress:Withdrawal to Availability ratio 1995

Environmental stress: the intensity of environmental change thatis (i) an undesirable departure, (ii) short duration.


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Water Stress Indicators-- Test against occurrence of crisis events --Statistical significance, t test (0.05)

Water withdrawal to availability ratio Deviation of groundwater recharge from longtime average Deviation of water availability from long timeaverage Runoff deficit index Deviation of evapotranspiration from long timeaverage MaxIndexMaximum function [withdrawal to availabilityratio, deviation of water availability from longterm average, and percentage of area with highwater stress]

Water withdrawal to internal availability ratio Annual groundwater recharge in mm

Groundwater discharge per capita Water availability per capita Internal renewable water availability per capita Percentage of area under stress (defined aswithdrawal to availability ratio of 0.4 or more) Percentage of population under stress Deviation of precipitation from long time average

Statistically significant indicators Not statistically significant indicators


Security Diagrams

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

0.0 - 0.2 >0.2 - 0.4 >0.4 - 0.6 >0.6 - 0.8 >0.8 - 1.0

Water Stress (Categories)

Rel

ativ

e fr

eque

ncy

of c

rises

[num

ber o

f cris

es /

num

ber

of c

ases

per

cat

egor

y]

0 crises /4 cases

3 crises /24 cases

7 crises /16 cases

1 crises /2 cases

2 crises /2 cases

Testing Water StressWater stress (“MaxIndex”) vs.

crisis data from three case study regions


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Susceptibility: the capability of an individual, community or state to resist, adapt and/or recover from environmental stress.


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• Develop inference models: Adapt theory, select variables, specify relationships between variables, select indicators for variables.

2. Quantify the models based on fuzzy set theory

• Collect data for indicators: (top-down and bottom-up from casestudy regions: Southern Portugal, Volga region, AndhraPradesh)

4. Input data to model and compute susceptibility

Procedure to Assess Susceptibility


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Environ-mentalstress

Exposure

Degreeof beingsusceptible

Disaster/CrisesSusceptibility

Conceptual Overview

Economics

Political science

Wealth & EconomicSensitivity

Socio-culturalIntegration

Political Capacity &Political Willingness PolSus

EcoSus

SocCuSus

Agents’ Perceptionof Threat Agents’

ProtectionCapacity

Environmental psychology

Agents’ Perceptionof Competence

Monetary Resources

Agriculture Sector

Gender Equality

Health Status

Educational Attainment

Infra-structure SystemEconomic

Sus

Social Sus


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Neg.conse-

quences

Pos.conse-

quences

Appraisal ofthreat

Suscep-tibility

Appraisal ofcompetence

Agrarianincome

Non-agrarianincome

Agrarianfood

source

Non-agrarian

foodsource

Technicalmeasures

“At place”measures

Barriers

ResourcesNon-

agrarianresources

Agrarianresources

Depen-dencyratio

Threatened values

Depen-dency fromagriculture

Conse-quences

of drought

if

Response-Efficacy

Self-Efficacy

Perceived Probability

Perceived Severity

measured input variabledimension, computedvia Fuzzy subsystem

Model of Psychological Perspective


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Results for Psychological Perpective

Andhra Pradesh, India 2001

0,000,250,500,751,00

Low capacityfor technicalmeasures

Low capacityfor at placemeasures

Barriers toimplementmeasures

Lowresources

Negativeconsequences

of drought

Appraisal of threatened

values

Dependencyratio

Dependencyfrom agriculture

Algarve + Alentejo, Portugal 2001

0,000,250,500,751,00




Lowresources


of drought


values

Dependencyratio


Volgograd + Saratov, Russia 2001

0,000,250,500,751,00




Lowresources


of drought


values

Dependencyratio


high low low


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Model of Political Perspective

RelativeState

Capacity

Socio-culturalSusceptibility

TaxRevenue

ConflictInvolve-

ment

Susceptibility

EconomicSusceptibility

PoliticalSusceptibility

Lack ofSocial

Integration

EconomicSensitivity

RelativeState

Willingness

Lack ofWealth

Opport.for

Particip.

Immuni-zation

Degree ofCorruption

Expendi-tures forHealth

GDP perCapita

Employees in

Agricult.

Hydro-powerProd.

Size ofAgricult.


Security Diagrams

Results for Political Perspective

Andhra Pradesh, India 1991-1995

0,000,250,500,751,00

Lack of Statecapacity

Lack of Statewill

Lack of WealthEconomic

Sensitivity

Lack of Social

Integration

Algarve + Alentejo, Portugal 1991- 1995

0,000,250,500,751,00

Lack of Statecapacity

Lack of Statewill

Lack of Wealth

EconomicSensitivity

Lack of Social

Integration

Volgograd + Saratov, Russia 1991-1995

Lack of

0,000,250,500,751,00

Statecapacity

Lack of Statewill

Lack of Wealth

EconomicSensitivity

Lack of Social

Integration

low very highvery high


Security Diagrams

Susceptibility

% femalein labour

force

Expen-ditures foreducation

Illiteracy

Infantmortality

Life expec-tancy

Number ofdoctors

Femaleliteracy

Socialsuscep-tibility

Economicsuscep-tibility

Infra-structuresystem

Agricul-ture sector

Monetaryresources

Genderequality

Educa-tional

attainment

Healthstatus

Hydro-power

production

Employees in

agriculture

Agriculture(% ofGDP)

Taxrevenue

GDP percapita

Externaldebt

Irrigatedareas

Model of Economic Perspective


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Results for Economic Perspective

Susceptibility Susceptibility SusceptibilityIndia 1991-1995

0,000,250,500,751,00

Financialindicators

Agricultureindicators

Infrastructureindicators

Healthindicators

Educationindicators

Genderindicators

Portugal 1991-1995

0,000,250,500,751,00

Financialindicators



Healthindicators

Educationindicators

Genderindicators

Russia 1991-1995

0,000,250,500,751,00

Financialindicators



Healthindicators

Educationindicators

Genderindicators

crucial low low


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Results Overview

Comparison of Disciplines

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

Andhra Pradesh,India

Algarve + Alentejo, Portugal

Volgograd + Saratov, Russia

Susc

eptib

ility

[Fu

zzy

Inde

x]

Economics perspective Political perspective Psychological perspective


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Summing up

• Refinement of the concepts of susceptibility, environmental stress, crisis

• Integrated Assessment – Coupling between approaches from thesocial and natural sciences

• Development of methodology to assess susceptibility

• Comprehensive and comparative approach to susceptibility

• First steps towards integrated approach to study the internalside of vulnerability

• Quantification of susceptibility

• Consideration of qualitative information

• However, more effort needed to validate findings

• Consider participative involvement of relevant stakeholder


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Conclusions

• Methodology offers diverse degrees of informationalresolution

• Depending on stakeholders‘ interest different foci can bechosen

• Makes clear that a single action will not be sufficient

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