securitization of environmental hazards, change and · united nations university institute for...
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2010 Berlin Conference on the Human Dimensions of G lobal Environmental Change: Social dimensions of environmental change a nd governance
8-9 October 2010, Berlin
Securitization of Environmental Hazards, Change and
Environmentally Induced Migration
Janos J. BogardiExecutive Officer of the ESSP -GWSPSenior Adviser to the Rector of UNU
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Widening the Security Concept
Brundtland Commission, 1987: the security concept „must be expanded to include the growing impacts of environmental stress -locally, nationally, regionally and globally“.
UNDP 1994 Human Development Report: Concept and dimensions of Human Security
Report of the UN Secretary General‘s High Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change (2004) identified six clusters of threat: poverty, infectious diseases, ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION, inter state and internal conflict, weapons of mass destruction, terrorism and transnational organized crime.
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Expanded Concepts of Security (Møller 2001, 2003; Oswald 2001)
Reference object(security of whom?)
Value at risk(security of what?)
Source(s) of threat(security from whom or
what?)National Security [political, military dimension]
The State Sovereignty,territorial integrity
Other states, terrorism(substate actors)
Societal security Nations, societal groups
National unity,identity
(States) Nations, migrants, alien cultures
Human security Individualshumankind
Survival,quality of life
State, globalisation, GEC, nature, terrorism
Environmental security Ecosystem Sustainability Humankind
Gender security Gender relations, indigenous people, minorities
Equality, identity, solidarity Patriarchy, totalitarian institutions (governments, religions, elites, culture), intolerance
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State of the Art, or Starting Points
• Lack of effective governance to deal with these new security challenges
• Perception and world views are the roots of security concepts and policies
• How can „environmental security “ be interpreted?
It is not „security of environment“Environment versus natureAnthropogene and geogene factorsRapid onset and creeping hazards
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Human Security vs. Hard Security
• Environmental security is a (growing) part of human and ultimately that of hard security
• Human Security is a controversial and fuzzy term (in 2004 approx. 30 definitions, no scientific consensus)
• Human Security can in some cases assume a higher „value “ than state security&sovereignty (genocide, disasters like Cyclone Nargis in 2008)
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Dynamic evolution of the security paradigm: from state to human security
Traditional
Sovereign states, national and political dimensions, peace, etc.
Emergence
Dimensions of human security:
• Political• Environmental• Economic• Food• Health• Personal• Community
Sustainable Development
Freedom from want
Freedom from hazard impact
Freedom from fear
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New, „Natural“ Security Stressor: Hazard Events
• IDNDR 1990-1999, then ISDR since 2000
• Increase of hazard events of „natural“ origin in the second half of the 20th century
• Overproportional growth of disaster losses (increasing vulnerability)
• Fear of development and hard security consequences
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Do we need a paradigm shift in disaster preparedness?
Old Paradigm
Focus on naturalhazards and their
quantification
From the „securitysociety“
New Paradigm
Focus on the assess-ment and ranking of
vulnerability
To the „risk society“
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Increasing Trend of Annual Flood Peaks, Rhine River , Gauge Cologne Since More Than a Century
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Historical and Recorded Discharges, River Main at Würzburg: Downward Trends! Did Flood Control Work?
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Time Series of Large (Cat.6) Hydro-Met-Climatic Catastrophes World Wide
• Between 1950 and 2008:– 71 hydrological events
(including floods)
– 116 meteorological events (storms etc)
– 16 climatic events (droughts, fire etc)
Number of events (number of hydrologic events):
• 1950-59: 13 (6) relatively stable
• 1960-69: 16 (6) relatively stable
• 1970-79: 29 (8) strong increase
• 1980-89: 44 (18) strong increase
• 1990-99: 74 (26) strong increase
• 2000-09: 30 (8) what happened?
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Rockefeller Foundation Donor Briefing 23 September 2009, New York City
The biggest „hot spot“ of the world
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What is at stake?
• Approximately 3 billion people, tendence still growing
• Global food security incl. rice exports• Largest irrigation areas in the world
• Changing monsoon, cyclones, typhoons• Melting of glaciers• Glacier lake outburst floods
• Massive rural-urban displacements• Environmentally triggered outmigration from
the region• Political stability in the region and beyond
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The Unstoppable Trend of Urbanisation
The accelerating spiralAverage size of the world‘s 100 largest cities:
Year Population
1800 200,000
1900 700,000
2000 6.200,000
In 2000 16 cities have more than 10 million inhabitants: 4% of the world population.
Urbanisation means massive land use changes but also increase of exposure of wealth and people, susceptibility and consequently vulnerability.
How many people must remain in the rural environment?
Good Estimate: if the world follows the US and NL models the number of people needed to produceour food could go down to 5% of the population (further migration of unimaginable proportion)
Rate of Increase
3,5
≅≅≅≅ 9,0
?
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Human security, environmental changeand migration: Hotspots & Main trajectories
Source: WGBU 2007 (modified)
Main trajectories
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UNU-EHS definitions for environmentally induced migrants
UNU-EHS* has presented preliminary definitions recognising three different categories of environmentally-induced migrants:
Environmental Emergency Migrantsto avoid the controversy that terms such as “Environmental Refugees” carry. This characterises people who flee the worst of an environmental impact. They have to take refuge to save their lives.
Environmentally Forced MigrantsThese would be people who “have to leave” to avoid the worst of environmental degradation.
Environmentally Motivated Migrants. These would be people who “may leave” a steadily deteriorating environment to pre-empt the worst.
Renaud F., Dun O., Warner K., Bogardi J. (2008): Deciphering the importance of environmental factors in human migration. Paper presented at the International Conference on Environment, Forced Migration & Social Vulnerability, Bonn 2008.
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Is there enough water for people?
Incident Human Water Security Threat („natural“ conditions) Source: Vörösmarty et al, Nature, 2010
Water resources in most of the populated areas are overstressed
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Security what money can buy
Adjusted Human Water Security Threat considering the mitigating effects of infrastructure etc. investments
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The ultimate victim: biodiversity
Biodiversity Threat in streams and rivers: as a safeguard of sustainability. Humans needs as much biodiversity as „nature“