sector update : otomotif (astra group) update/sectoral...your trusted professional 2 tren kenaikan...

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PT Mega Capital IndonesiaPT Mega Capital IndonesiaPT Mega Capital Indonesia

Sector Update :Otomotif (Astra Group)Agustus 2009

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Tren Kenaikan Penjualan Otomotif masihBerlanjut

Sumber : Gaikindo & AISI

Domestic Auto Sales Trend

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100,000

200,000

300,000

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500,000

600,000

700,000

Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2W Sales 4W Sales

Dampak darikrisis global

Tren penurunan BI rate&penguatan nilai tukar


Tren Kenaikan Penjualan Otomotif masihBerlanjut

Sumber : Perseroan

Astra Auto Sales

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50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09-

5,000

10,000

15,000

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30,000

35,000

2W 4W (RHS)


Pangsa Pasar Otomotif Astra

4W Market Share as June 2009

Astra, 59.5%

Honda, 6.6%

Mitsubishi, 12.1%

Suzuki, 9.5%Others, 12.2%

2W Market Share as June 2009

Others, 0.05%

Kawasaki, 1.44%

Suzuki, 8.74%

Yamaha, 45.06%

Astra/Honda, 44.70%


BI Rate vs Auto Sales

BI Rate vs 4W Sales

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0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%

4W Sales BI Rate

BI Rate vs 2W Sales

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100,000

200,000

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700,000

May-08

Jun-08

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Aug-08

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Feb-09

Mar-09

Apr-09

May-09

Jun-09

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

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7%

8%

9%

10%

2W Sales BI Rate


Revenue Breakdown

Revenue Breakdown (IDR bio) 1H08 1H09 % % to total revenueOtomotif 25,076 22,811 -9.0% 51.0%Financial services 3,793 3,974 4.8% 8.9%Agribusiness 4,645 3,538 -23.8% 7.9%Information technology 373 673 80.4% 1.5%Heavy equipment and mining 12,591 13,883 10.3% 31.0%Others 13 129 892.3% 0.3%

Total 46,267 44,761 -3.3% 100.0%

Kontribusi pendapatan yang cukupbesar dari UNTR

Penjualan mobil dan motor 1H09 masing-masing turun 18% dan17% YoY.

Penurunan harga CPO


Kinerja 1H09 diatas ekspektasi

ASII's 1H09 Result1H08 1H09 %

Net revenue 46,267 44,761 -3.3%Cost of revenue (35,191) (34,122) -3.0%Gross profit 11,076 10,639 -3.9%Operating expenses (4,466) (4,753) 6.4%Operating income 6,610 5,886 -11.0%Other income/expenses 378 572 51.3%Share of results of associates 1,154 896 -22.4%Profit before income tax 8,142 7,354 -9.7%Income tax expenses (2,289) (1,965) -14.2%Income before minority interests 5,853 5,389 -7.9%Minority interests (1,100) (1,146) 4.2%Net income 4,753 4,243 -10.7%EPS 1,174 1,048

1H08 1H09 %Gross Profit Margin 23.9% 23.8% -0.7%Operating Profit Margin 14.3% 13.1% -8.0%Net Profit Margin 10.3% 9.5% -7.7%

58% dari Net Profit FY09E konsensus, 57% dari ekspektasi kami


Revenue Breakdown

Revenue 1H09 Breakdown(IDR Bio) 2008 2009 % Change % to total revenueConstruction Machinery 6,364 5,464 -14.1% 39.4%Mining contracting 4,653 6,888 48.0% 49.6%Mining 1,575 1,532 -2.7% 11.0%Total 12,592 13,884 10.3% 100.0%

Penjualan Komatsu turun 44%


Mesin Konstruksi (Komatsu)

Construction Machinery (Komatsu)

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Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09

in Unit

0

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Agro Construction Forestry Mining Total(RHS)

Permintaan dari sektorpertambangan/perkebunan masih kuat


Coal Sales Volume(Dasa Eka Jasatama)

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100

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Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09

000 ton

Pertambangan

Turun karenapermasalahanpengiriman (shipment)


Overburden Removal (Pamapersada)

Overburden Removal

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60

Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09

mio bcm

• Kontributor pendapatanterbesar bagi UNTR

• Aktivitas pertambanganmasih cukup kuat


Kinerja 1H09 diatas ekspektasi

UNTR's1H 2009 Result(IDR Bio) 2008 2009 %Net Revenue 12,592 13,884 10.3%COGS (10,134) (10,660) 5.2%Gross profit 2,458 3,225 31.2%Operating expenses (527) (641) 21.6%Operating Income 1,931 2,584 33.8%Other Income/expenses (68) 151 321.0%Share of results of associates 2 3 69.9%Profit before income tax 1,865 2,738 46.8%Income tax expenses (649) (848) 30.6%Income before minority interest 1,216 1,891 55.5%Minority Interest (10) (18) 82.5%Net Income 1,206 1,873 55.3%

EPS 423 563

1H08 1H09 %Gross Profit Margin 19.5% 23.2% 19.0%Operating Profit Margin 15.3% 18.6% 21.3%Net Profit Margin 9.6% 13.5% 40.8%

63% dari Net Profit FY09E konsensus danekspektasi kami

Kenaikan keuntungan selisih kurs yang signifikan

Margin yang lebih tinggi, karena kemampuandalam memantain cost


Valuasi masih cukup menarik

Investment Opportunity:• Permintaan alat berat untuk sektor

berbasis komoditi masih cukup kuat• Potensial revenue yang cukup besar

dari bisnis tambang batubara(TTA&DEJ)

• Tren penurunan suku bunga danmembaiknya nilai tukar Rupiah

Investment Risk:• Sensitif terhadap perkembangan

harga komoditi&kondisi makroekonomi

Rekomendasi: BUY, TP : Rp. 14.500DCF ( WACC : 17,62%, LTG : 2% )

Key Ratio

2006A 2007A 2008A 2009F 2010F

EPS (IDR) 326 524 800 892 1,120 EPS Growth (%) -11.49% 60.48% 52.76% 11.45% 25.57%P/E (x) 20.09 20.80 6.31 16.36 13.03BV (IDR) 4,938 3,840 4,184 4,466 4,279 P/BV (x) 4.07 5.42 1.32 3.27 3.41ROE (%) 20.25% 26.04% 23.90% 22.39% 23.37%ROA (%) 8.27% 11.48% 11.65% 12.06% 12.82%DER (x) 0.92 0.67 0.40 0.37 0.33 Interest Coverage (%) 3.39 4.93 13.61 13.73 15.67

Source : Company, MCI Estimates


AALI's Monthly CPO Price 2009

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1,000

2,000

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7,000

8,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun

Rp./kg

Harga jual CPO rata-rata


Sales vs Average Selling Price

Sales Volume (000 ton)

476.9

80.7

8 11 2.4

494

69.5

12.5 17.7 2.5

CPO Kernel PKO PKE Rubber

1H08 1H09

Average Selling Price (Rp./kg)

8,299

4,418

10,599

925

24,204

392

6,386

2,528

16,873

6,153

CPO Kernel PKO PKE Rubber

1H08 1H09


Kinerja 1H09 sejalan dengan ekspektasi

44% dari Net Profit FY09E konsensus

AALI's 1H09 ResultIDR Bio 1H08 1H09 %Net Sales 4,644.7 3,537.8 -23.8%COGS (2,106.0) (2,158.9) 2.5%Gross Profit 2,538.7 1,378.9 -45.7%Operating Income/Expense (187.3) (223.6) 19.4%Operating Profit 2,351.4 1,155.3 -50.9%Other Income/Expense 64.3 1.3 -98.0%Profit before income tax 2,415.7 1,156.6 -52.1%Income Tax Expense (760.0) (357.9) -52.9%Minority Interest (57.6) (28.8) -50.0%Net Income 1,598.1 769.9 -51.8%EPS 1,014 489 EPS Consensus FY09F 1,102

AALI's 1H09 ResultIDR Bio 1H08 1H09 %Net Sales 4,644.7 3,537.8 -23.8%COGS (2,106.0) (2,158.9) 2.5%Gross Profit 2,538.7 1,378.9 -45.7%Operating Income/Expense (187.3) (223.6) 19.4%Operating Profit 2,351.4 1,155.3 -50.9%Other Income/Expense 64.3 1.3 -98.0%Profit before income tax 2,415.7 1,156.6 -52.1%Income Tax Expense (760.0) (357.9) -52.9%Minority Interest (57.6) (28.8) -50.0%Net Income 1,598.1 769.9 -51.8%EPS 1,014 489 EPS Consensus FY09F 1,102

1H08 1H09 %Gross Profit Margin 54.7% 39.0% -28.7%Operating Margin 50.6% 32.7% -35.5%EBITDA Margin 54.3% 36.4% -33.0%Net Profit Margin 34.4% 21.8% -36.8%

1H08 1H09 %Gross Profit Margin 54.7% 39.0% -28.7%Operating Margin 50.6% 32.7% -35.5%EBITDA Margin 54.3% 36.4% -33.0%Net Profit Margin 34.4% 21.8% -36.8%


P/E Chart

P/E FY10F (x)

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Market Cap EPS (Rp) P/E (x)(bio) FY09F FY10F FY09F FY10F

AALI 30,235 1,049 1,244 18.20 15.36LSIP 9,347 466 474 14.71 14.45SGRO 3,364 133 159 13.31 11.13UNSP 2,917 43 44 17.86 17.57

11466 423 480 16.02 14.63Source : MCI Estimates


Netral

Investment Opportunity:• Harga CPO diperkirakan membaik

di kuartal 2 2009• Permintaan CPO masih besar

Investment Risk:• Faktor cuaca dan penggunaan

pupuk sangat mempengaruhiproduksi

Rekomendasi: HOLD, TP : Rp. 19.900P/E FY10E = 16x

Key Ratio2007 2008 2009F 2010F

EPS (IDR) 1,253 1,671 1,049 1,244 EPS Growth (%) 150.65% 33.32% -37.19% 18.49%P/E (x) 16.96 4.65 18.96 16.00BV (IDR) 2,580 3,276 3,887 4,612 P/BV (x) 10.85 2.99 5.12 4.31ROE (%) 57.96% 57.09% 29.31% 29.26%ROA (%) 44.60% 44.32% 23.95% 24.80%DER (x) 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02EV/EBITDA (x) 9.00 7.80 10.86 9.63Source : Company, MCI Estimates


Valuasi Astra International

Sum-of-the Parts Method Total Equity Value (bn) % to totalASII (parent) DCF @WACC 13,5% 48,628 39.8%UNTR DCF @TP 14.500 42,828 35.0%AALI P/E @16x FY10F 24,965 20.4%BNLI Market Cap 2,343 1.9%AUTO Market Cap 3,209 2.6%ASGR Market Cap 352 0.3%

Total value 122,324 Number of Share 4.048Equity Value per Share 30,218


Netral

Investment Opportunity:• Menguasai pangsa pasar

otomotif di Indonesia• Tren penurunan suku bunga dan

penguatan Rupiah menopangpenjualan otomotif

• Bisnis yang terdiversifikasi

Investment Risk:• Daya beli masyarakat terhadap

kendaraan bermotor belumsepenuhnya pulih

Rekomendasi: HOLD, TP : Rp. 30.200

P/E FY10E = 14,88x

Key Ratio2007 2008 2009F 2010F

EPS (IDR) 1,610 2,270 1,852 2,030 EPS Growth (%) 75.57% 40.99% -18.40% 9.56%P/E (x) 16.96 4.65 16.30 14.88BV (IDR) 6,660 8,171 9,572 11,109 P/BV (x) 4.10 1.29 3.17 2.73ROE (%) 24.18% 27.78% 19.35% 18.27%ROA (%) 10.26% 11.38% 8.88% 8.64%DER (x) 0.31 0.29 0.30 0.29Source : Company, MCI Estimates

Your Trusted Professional

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reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable,

its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Mega Capital Indonesia.

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sector update : otomotif (astra group) update/sectoral...your trusted professional 2 tren kenaikan...

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