sector-specific analysis and perspectives for the wadden ......europe and asia. nevertheless, among...

Draft 5

Sector-specific analysis and perspectives for the Wadden Sea Region

Bremen, 24.09.2004 14 - 6060

for Wadden Sea Forum Contact Dr. Olaf Arndt Marcel Hölterhoff Tobias Koch

Prognos AG Managing Director Christian Böllhoff

Basel Aeschenplatz 7 CH-4010 Basel Phone +41 61 32 73-200 Fax +41 61 32 73-300 [email protected] www.prognos.com

Berlin Karl-Liebknecht-Straße 29 D-10178 BerlinPhone +49 30 52 00 59-200 Fax +49 30 52 00 59-201 [email protected]

Düsseldorf Kasernenstraße 36 D-40213 Düsseldorf Phone +49 211 887 31 31 Fax +49 211 887 31 41 [email protected]

Bremen Wilhelm-Herbst-Straße 5 D-28359 Bremen Phone +49 421 20 15-784 Fax +49 421 20 15-789 [email protected]

CONTENTS

1. Introduction 4

2. National economic situation in Wadden Sea countries 7

2.1 Danish economy at a glance 7 2.2 German economy at a glance 9 2.3 Dutch economy at a glance 11 2.4 Overview of the Wadden Sea Region 13

3. Perspectives in agriculture and fishery 17

3.1 Agriculture 17 3.2 Fishery 39

4. Perspectives in industry sectors and branches 69

4.1 Overview of industry sectors 69 4.2 Metal industry and engineering 72 4.3 Food industry 80 4.4 Chemical industry 90 4.5 Energy sector 98 4.6 Harbour industry 109

5. Perspectives in service sectors 115

5.1 Overview of service sectors 115 5.2 Wholesale-/commission-trade and retail 119 5.3 Transport and communication 131 5.4 Business services 136 5.5 Health care and social activities 144 5.6 Public administration 148 5.7 Education 152 5.8 Tourism 159 5.9 Overall summary of service sectors 167

6. Summary and conclusion 171

6.1 Overview of analysed sectors 171 6.2 Perspectives of WSR development 181 6.3 Strategy and recommendation 190

7. Annex 196

7.1 Supplementary tables 196 7.2 Bibliography 197

1. Introduction

The remit of the Trilateral Wadden Sea Forum is to elaborate pro-posals for strategies and scenarios of sustainable development and their implementation for the Danish, Dutch and German Wad-den Sea Region. Key topics such as agriculture, industry (including port activities and shipping), fisheries, energy, tourism, recreation and marketing as well as policy management are discussed in five thematic TGs. This report has supported this process by supple-menting sector-specific information.

Building on the overall assessment of the Wadden Sea Region in terms of the socio-economic situation as a whole and a SWOT analysis, both also having been worked out synoptically by Prog-nos, the purpose of this report is to

- identify the most relevant economic sectors and their sub-divisions in the Wadden Sea Region,

- analyse their developments and perspectives and to

- give a review of the future prospects for the most important sectors in the Wadden Sea Region.

The sector-specific analysis builds upon the outcome of the ge-neric studies, relevant national reports and the questions put for-ward in the TGs. This entails analysing the basic data for each of the sectors. Due to numerous data deficiencies in the general studies, most of the statistics used in the present inventory had to be compiled anew by Prognos. A large effort was involved in gath-ering comparable data for all three countries and thus enabling sector-specific analysis for the whole Wadden Sea Region and its subregions. Additionally and as far as possible, specific TG ques-tions were addressed. However, it should be stressed that it some-times proved necessary to prioritise and/or combine the TG ques-tions, depending on the available resources.

The main sub-sectors of the study

This study presents an analysis of developments and perspectives of the main sectors in the Wadden Sea Region. It concerns mainly:

Agriculture and fishery,

Industry and port activities (including the key branches: food industry, metal industry as well as engineering and the chemical industry)

Energy

Service sector (including retail/wholesale, transportation & communication, business services, health care and social wel-fare, public administration and tourism).

Main statistical sources and the Prognos-World-Report

The data used in the study mostly stem at first hand from the offi-cial statistics. The Danish figures are from the Statbank Denmark, Dutch figures are from Statistics Netherlands. German data have been compiled with figures from Federal Statistical Office and sta-tistical offices of the federal states in Bremen, Lower Saxony and Schleswig-Holstein. In individual cases the data have been com-bined with information of the Federal Employment Office, Eurostat as well as private information sources. The authors have used prepared data from COWi and the Planco-Report as well as data published by the University of Groningen for the Dutch WSR. In cases of problems involving comparability or lack of sector-specific information (e.g. sector-specific employment data) Prognos has processed other official and private data sources. Due to this ap-proach variations may occur between the data of COWi and the Planco-Report and the data contained in this report.

The employment and GDP forecasts are based on the Prognos Report Germany 2020 and the Prognos World Report “Indus-trial Countries”, which provides reliable data and forecasts re-garding the demographic and economic developments of 20 coun-tries and four country groups (Euro-Zone, EU-15, Western Europe and all Industrial Countries). That report contains detailed demo-graphic and economic analyses for the time frame 1995 – 2001, as well as forecasts for long-term developments up to the year 2010/2012. The data of GDP by industry of origin (value added), employment and productivity are available for 13 branches of the manufacturing sector and 9 service branches.

The quantitative forecast is carried out with the help of a complex econometric model, which connects the developments with each other in an interdependent way (indicators: population, labour force, employment, productivity, prices, GDP, private and public sector final consumption, exports/imports). In a first step national economic and industry-specific forecasts are carried out inde-pendently of each other. Then in ensuing steps the results are co-ordinated with each other and taken to a plausible result. The fore-cast results are to be seen in the context of the national accounts. Parts of the economic activities (irregular economy, neighbourly help, honorary activities, etc.) are not taken into account.

Current primary assumption of medium-term development in Prog-nos World-Report:

Significant differences in economic growth are revealed among the individual country groups (e.g. in several Eastern Europe countries faster growth due to their EU accession). Global economic growth up to the year 2010 will continue to increase on average by 2.7% to 2.8% per year (EU-Zone: 1.7% to 1.9%).

Crude oil prices: During the projection period the real oil price will stay on average at a level slightly above $20/bbl (predicted corridor of $22–$28/bbl), independent from higher current price level (> $30/bbl). In the long term, high oil prices (at an aver-age price level of between $20-$25/bbl) will provide strong im-pulses for increased exploration efforts and for expanding the use of substitute energy sources. On the demand side, how-ever, further increases in oil consumption are likely in the me-dium and long terms.

US Dollar/Euro exchange rate: The estimation of medium-term exchange rate developments is oriented to changes in purchasing power parities (in contrast to the short-term fluctua-tions). We assume that the current appreciation of the Euro against the US Dollar will end and then be reversed. In 2006 the exchange rate will have a parity around $1.00/Euro, with a lightly stronger Euro expected in 2010. Industrial countries will stay the course of continuing the consolidation of their gov-ernment budgets (i.e., debt reduction), with moderate wage policy still oriented to promoting job creation.

Basic structure of the report

The document is set up as follows. Chapter 2 gives a brief over-view of the national context and the short economic outlook for Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands. It is done on the basis of Prognos Germany Report and the World Report. Chapters 3 to 5 present the sector-specific developments and perspectives of the main sectors in the Wadden Sea Region. Chapter 3 focuses on agriculture and fisheries. Chapter 4 analyses the sector-specific trends of the industry branches and Chapter 5 examines the same with the most important service sectors. Chapter 6 summarises and concludes the study.

2. National economic situation in Wadden Sea countries

2.1 Danish economy at a glance

Since 1945 the structure of the Danish economy has developed from an agrarian country into a modern industrial nation with a broad production base and a distinctive service sector. Denmark has several market-dominating large-scaled enterprises in the shipping industry, the trading sectors and the brewery industry. Within the last years concentration processes in the banking sec-tor, in the pharmaceutical industry and new mergers of construc-tion companies and companies of agricultural engineering formed new competitive players on international markets. But despite these large-scaled enterprises in key branches the Danish econ-omy is still characterized by medium-sized companies.

Table 1: Key-indicators of Denmark

Inhabitants 2002

GDP per capita in Purchasing Power

Standards (EUR 15 =100)

2002

Total unemployment rate - Unemployed per-sons as a share of the total active population

2002

Growth rate of GDP

Share in % of employees

by sector

5.4 mill. (124 inhab. per

km²)

115 4.5% 2000: 2.8% 2001: 1.4% 2002: 1.5%

Argricul. 3.7% Industry 25.4% Service 71.0%

Prognos AG 2004 according to Eurostat and national official statistics

The Danish economy covers a market of 5.4 mill. inhabitants and is regarded as stable, healthy and growing - despite just moderate growth of 1.4 percent to 1.5 percent in 2001 and 2002. In 2003 the economy will grow by approximately 2.0 percent. The engine of growth is private consumption. The Danish economy is character-ised by high dependence on foreign trade. Traditionally, Germany is the most important trading partner for Denmark. The share of German suppliers of Danish imports has remained stable at 22 percent in the course of the last decade. Thanks to its high techno-logical and educational standards Denmark is an attractive partner and location for foreign enterprises. Among others, Danish future growth markets are wind power plants, mobile radiotelephony, biomedicine, pharmacy, transportation/logistics, electrical engineering/electronics and environmental technologies.1 The exploitation of natural gas and crude oil is building a main pillar for Denmark’s economy.

1 According to assessments made by the German Office for Foreign Trade (BAFI)

Despite favourable basic conditions like international trade rela-tions, and modern economic structures, Danish industry will also be affected by economic challenges in the future. The high level of labour costs and other production costs causes the emigration of businesses, especially with labour-intensive production, to Eastern Europe and Asia.

Nevertheless, among the three countries under review, the Danish economy will develop the most dynamically in the long run until 2015. GDP will rise by about 40 percent and gainful employment will increase slightly by 3.0 percent. Significant growth of employ-ment is expected in the sectors transport and communication (0.9% p.a.), electricity, gas and water (0.9%) and construction (0.8%).

Figure 1: Economic growth in Denmark 1995-2002

100,0

105,6

108,5

110,8

114,2

115,8

117,7

100,0

101,8103,1

104,2105,0

107,0106,4

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

GDP by Prices 1995 Employment1995 = Index 100

Prognos AG 2004 World Report 2002

2.2 German economy at a glance

As Europe's largest economy and most populous nation (82.5 million inhabitants), Germany is a key member of the European Union. Germany's affluent and technologically powerful economy suffered from a relatively weak economic performance throughout the 1990s. The integration and modernization of the eastern part of Germany proved to be a massive burden for the public finances. Additionally, the one-time reunification boom hid the urgency of needed structural reforms. Compared to the Netherlands and Denmark, Germany fell behind in reforming its social welfare sys-tems, the education system and labour market conditions.

Table 2: Key-indicators of Germany

Inhabitants 2002



2002


2002

Growth rate of GDP

Share in % of employees by sectors

825 mill. (230 inhab. per

km²)

103 8.6% 2000: 2.9% 2001: 0.6% 2002: 0.2%



In contrast to other European countries the German economy is currently characterised by ageing population, high unemployment rates and economic stagnation. The growth rate of GDP in 2001 was at barely 1.0 percent and dropped down to 0.2 percent in 2002. The export of machinery, vehicles, chemicals, metals and manufactures and foodstuffs especially to France, the USA, Great Britain and the Netherlands continues to be an important economic factor. Manufacturing is the mainstay of the German economy. About 33 percent of the labour force is employed in the industrial sectors. Thanks to state-of-the-art technology, innova-tive products and emphasis on research and development, the chemical industry, the automobile industry and engineering play a leading role worldwide.

Figure 2: Economic growth in Germany 1995-2002

100,0

102,2

104,2

106,1

109,3110,3 110,5

100,0 99,5100,6

101,9

103,5 104,1103,4

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002



2.3 Dutch economy at a glance

The Netherlands is a prosperous and open economy that depends heavily on foreign trade. It is noted for stable industrial relations; a large current account surplus from trade and overseas invest-ments; net exports of natural gas; and a unique position as a European transportation hub with its port, air, road, rail, and inland waterway transport network. The Netherlands is a national economy of about 16 mill. inhabitants. The Netherlands is a very densely populated country. The settlement density of 470 inhabi-tants per sqkm indicates that in terms of spatial use of land the Dutch population lives twice more close together than the Ger-mans (230 inhabitants per sqkm) and four times closer than the Danes (124 inh. per sqkm). The Dutch population is mostly con-centrated in the Randstad-area between the large cities of Rotter-dam, Amsterdam and Den Haag. Compared to the rest of the country the Dutch Wadden Sea Region is relatively sparsely popu-lated (228 inh. per sqkm).

Triggered by a severe recession in the early eighties the Dutch au-thorities launched comprehensive reforms that paved the way for fast and sustainable structural changes of the Dutch economy. Within the last years (1995-2002) annual growth rates of 2.2 per-cent made the Netherlands one of the fastest growing industrial countries in the world and led to a constant increase of employ-ment. In 2002 the unemployment rate amounted to 2.7 percent of total labour force – significantly below the average of all EU-member-states, which was 7.6 percent in 2002.

Table 3: Key-indicators of The Netherlands

Inhabitants 2002



2002


2002

Growth rate of GDP

Share in % of employees by sectors

15.9 mill. (479 inhab. per

km²)

112 2.7% 2000: 3.9% 2001: 1.1% 2002: 0.2%



In comparison to Germany the Netherlands is far ahead with the process of tertiarisation, which is indicated by a share of 75% of total labour force in service sectors. About 22% of the labour force is employed in industrial sectors. The most important industrial sectors are automotives, shipbuilding and electrical engineer-ing, the metal industry, mechanical engineering, foodstuffs and chemical industry. The energy industry has a significant relevance for the Netherlands in the case of exploitation of mineral oil and natural gas. Caused by the central position in Western Europe and the geographical location at the coast, the transport

sector including port activities occupies a key position. As opposed to other industrialised countries the farming and food-processing sector with its high export rates to neighbouring countries, like Germany, Belgium and France, is still an important sector in terms of added value and employment.

Due to its strong dependency on foreign trade the Netherlands could not break out of the worldwide recession in 2001. The stag-nation starting already 2001 further continued in 2002. Just like in Germany the Dutch GDP increased by only 0.2%. This was the lowest economic growth since the recession in 1982. In addition the year 2002 marks a rebound on the Dutch labour market. The unemployment has increased for the first time since 1994. How-ever, the Netherlands still has an unemployment rate significantly below the 15 EU-member-states.

But in spite of the current setbacks the Dutch economy remains well prepared for the future. Structural reforms are widely com-pleted, educational systems are competitive and a shrinking and ageing society compared to other European countries less affect the country.

Figure 3: Economic growth inThe Netherlands 1995-2002

100,0

107,0

111,6

115,8

119,8

121,5 121,8

100,0

108,4

111,0

115,8116,8

113,7

105,6

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002



2.4 Overview of the Wadden Sea Region

The Wadden Sea Region (WSR) in this study comprises parts of three countries around the North Sea. The separately published regional analysis (WSF report Nr. 6) goes into more detailed in-formation about the socio-economic development and structure of the WSR and its sub-regions. In contrast to this sector-specific analysis, the regional analysis contains the issues demographics, human resources and labour market, such information mostly be-ing left out of this analysis.

Giving a short characterisation of the Wadden Sea Region, the fol-lowing should be highlighted:

- The Wadden Sea is the largest coastal wetland in Europe. Therefore it is a nature zone of worldwide importance, but it also has a vital commercial significance. In this context there is a whole set of challenges to be met.

- The demographic changes currently in progress will be a defin-ing feature of socio-economic life for the foreseeable future. Since both the prolonged fertility rate decline and a rapidly ageing society are trends that are almost certain to continue, population will be on a steady downward path.

- The 1990s were marked by different periods of economic growth. Generally the economy in the Wadden Sea Region has grown by 20% in GDP and 4% in employment.

- In comparison with each national state, the Wadden Sea Re-gion has to be characterised as structurally weak as regards the labour market. The unemployment rates in most areas are higher than the national average.

- The business composition in the Wadden Sea Region, as in the rest of the respective countries, is dominated by industry and services. Round about two thirds of the employed in the Wadden Sea Region work in the service sector which includes the entire public sector.

- However, agriculture, fisheries and transport play a somewhat more important role in the region than nationally. In addition, tourism is more important for employment in the Wadden Sea Region than nationally.

- The structural change of the economy has run for a long time at the expense of the manufacturing sector and in favour of service industries. It is expected that new and additional jobs will develop almost exclusively here in future.

Currently there is no overall sign of a poor qualification struc-ture in the Wadden Sea Region. It corresponds, apart from in-dividual matching problems, to the economic structure. How-ever the lack of highly qualified people is a comparatively bad starting point for the projected job-conditions that are increas-ingly becoming more and more knowledge-intensive.

- Altogether the international competition with regions where the availability of qualified work forces with markedly low wages is a central location advantage will increasingly affect the rural areas of the Wadden Sea Region. The regional development policy has the difficult task to bring forward the economy to-wards an innovation and qualification-oriented structural change.

The Wadden Sea Region is heterogeneous in kinds of three na-tional countries and different sub-regions with a local focus. The following sub-chapter contains a short overview of the WSR and its sub-regions.

Figure 4: Overview of sub-regions in Wadden Sea Region

Prognos AG 2004 according to Wadden Sea Forum

In Denmark parts of the counties Ribe and South Jutland (10 communities) belong to the Danish Wadden Sea Region, where about 170,000 people live. The regional centre of the Danish part is Esbjerg, a city of 82.000, with strong specialisation in fishery, food industry, logistics and basic metals.

The German part of the Wadden Sea Region is shared by the three federal states Lower Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein and Bre-men. About two mill. inhabitants live in the German Wadden Sea Region, which comprises the sub-regions Pinneberg, Dith-marschen, Steinburg, Nordfriesland, Stade, Cuxhaven, Weser-marsch, Friesland, Wittmund, Aurich and Leer and three regional centres (Emden, Wilhelmshaven and Bremerhaven). The German sub-regions are strongly specialised in food industry, automotives, the chemical industry, tourism and public administration. In con-trast to other German regions away from the North Sea the Ger-man Wadden Sea Region can be characterised as a structurally weak region. During the nineties the shipyard crises, the relocation of army forces and slow growth in major branches strongly hit the German Wadden Sea Region.

Bremen and Hamburg, the largest cities in the neighbourhood are not located directly on the coast and therefore they may be con-sidered as not being part of the Wadden Sea Region in a politically administrative sense. Where necessary this analysis includes those urban centres and their specific functional role for the Wad-den Sea Region. For example, in the port and logistics sector both cities are considered in the sector-specific analysis because of their leading role as worldwide logistics hub. However, unless ex-plicitly mentioned, the urban centres of Hamburg, Bremen and also Oldenburg are not part of the analyses.

The provinces of Groningen and Fryslân and the county of Kop van Noord-Holland constitute the Dutch Wadden Sea Region. The Dutch region has a population of about 1.5 mill. people with high concentration in the regional centres of Groningen and Leeu-warden.

The Dutch region has specialised in agriculture (like potatoes or green house plantation in Kop van Noord-Holland), basic metal and food industry. In contrast to German and Danish regions the Dutch Wadden Sea has a very strong service sector with a broad range of sophisticated and knowledge-based services, like for in-stance business services.

Summarizing the geographical scope of investigation includes the following municipalities, provinces, districts and cities:

Denmark Germany Blavandshuk 1 Schleswig-Holstein Varde 1 Nordfriesland 4 Esbjerg 1 Dithmarschen 4 Fanø 1 Steinburg 4 Bramming 1 Pinneberg 4 Ribe 1 Lower Saxony Skærbæk 1 Cuxhaven 4 Bredebro 1 Stade 4 Højer 1 Wesermarsch 4 Tønder 1 Wittmund 4

Friesland 4 Wilhelmshaven 5

Netherlands Aurich 4 Groningen 2 Emden 5 Fryslân 2 Leer 4 Kop van Noord-Holland 3 Federal State of Bremen Bremerhaven 5

Note: 1) commune 2) province 3) COROP 4) district 5) city

3. Perspectives in agriculture and fishery

3.1 Agriculture

Summary and key facts

About 55,000 jobs are in agriculture. Approx 15,000 jobs were cut during the nineties in WSR. Agriculture is the important basis of the food chain. Furthermore the primary sector is playing a major role for the regional and national food processing industry.

The WSR’s economy is strongly specialised in agriculture and fishery (5% of labour force). Especially the Dutch WSR (ratio of localisation 161, 100=national level) is spe-cialised in agriculture and fishery.

High concentration of agriculture in Fryslân (NL), Groningen, Kop van Noord-Holland (esp. green houses in Kop van Noord-Holland), “Unterelbe” area and Schleswig-Holstein (esp. dairy farming and stock farming).

Key agricultural products of the WSR: beef, pork, potatoes, vegetables, milk/dairy and wheat. High growth perspectives until 2010: wheat/cereals, pork and cheese.

Eco-farming is emerging as a new growth market. The share of eco-farms (currently 1.8%) in Wadden Sea area will increase in future.

CAP-reform: As of 2005, farmers in the WSR have to prepare for changing agricul-tural subsidies. In addition quality characteristics will determine the price.

Every third job (totalling 17,000 jobs) will be cut by 2020, further reduction of num-bers of agriculture holdings, especially in German WSR because of high level of sideline farming with relative low productivity.

Branch profile

The agricultural sector is typically divided into numerous sub-sectors like crop farming and livestock farming, as well as the sub-branches of market gardening/horticulture and livestock hus-bandry. The agriculture sector is strongly influenced by the EU ag-ricultural market regulations of prices and quota restrictions of the CAP (Common Agricultural Policy). Despite extensive land use of the agricultural sector in the Wadden Sea Region (e.g. in Germany about 75%), in terms of GDP and employment the sector is only of small economic relevance.

The GDP of the agriculture sector in Wadden Sea Region was about 4,135 mill. € in 2000/2001. The Dutch (1,760 mill. €) and German (1,500 mill. €) Wadden Sea Regionscomprise the majority of sector specific GDP (see Table 4). In relative terms, agriculture,

forestry and fishing faced a decreasing share of GDP over the last decades.

Nevertheless, even as a minority in the countryside, farmers and agricultural businesses characterize the cultural landscape of rural areas and are an important factor for the attractiveness of these regions. In addition especially in peripheral areas the sector pro-vides employment where other job opportunities are limited. Fur-thermore every agricultural business creates indirect employment2 by investments, consumption of intermediate goods or as supplier for the food processing industry (see chapter 4.3).

Table 4: GDP in agriculture and fishery sector

Agriculture/Fishery/Forestry GDP in mill. € 1990

GDP in mill. € 2000

Change GDP in % p.a.

Danish Wadden Sea * 1993-2001 715 875 2.5

German Wadden Sea 1992-2001 1,200 1,500 2.5

Dutch Wadden Sea 1990-2000 1,530 1,760 1.4

Prognos AG 2004 according to official national statistics with following sources in this chap-ter: Statistisches Bundesamt, Statistisches Landesamt BW / Arbeitskreis VGR, Statistics Netherlands, StatBank Denmark. * Danish Wadden Sea Region in this case Ribe County and South Jutland County because of missing data for 10 Danish municipalities.

Within the last decades there was a continuing process of concen-tration in the agricultural production in Wadden Sea Region The average size of holdings grew and farms became more special-ised, favouring monoculture. Crop production was intensified, us-ing more inputs (seeds, fertilisers, pesticides) and substituting capital for labour (machinery, irrigation, land improvement meas-ures). This modern type of more intensive agriculture has had an overall impact on the environment, such as for example farm pollu-tion from slurry and silage, concentrations of pesticides in surface water and groundwater; erosion of soil containing phosphate from agricultural manure and fertilisers contributing to the eutrophication of rivers and lakes; livestock farming is responsible for large am-monia emissions. Changes in land management linked to intensive agriculture have been associated with damage to the quality of na-ture and declines in some farmland bird populations.

2 Indirect employment effects in other branches which are supplied by the agricultural sector (agriculture as provider like

food processing industry) or which supply the agricultural sector (agriculture as customer like machinery construction). According to the newest information from Denmark 1.6 persons are employed indirectly for every job in the primary sector.

Parallel to this development, the number of jobs in the agricultural sector is falling steadily. This is a major and continuing trend, linked to global economic developments and observable in all highly developed countries. During the nineties the agricultural sector in the Wadden Sea suffered a loss of 15,500 jobs. This re-duction means a cut of nearly every fourth job within 10 years, or in other words an annual decline of 4% in the German and Danish part. The fall in the number of farms and their increase in size have not necessarily led to a corresponding increase in the number of highly salaried jobs. A positive trend can be witnessed in the Dutch Wadden Sea Region: The agricultural sector gained about 1,200 new jobs mainly created by labour-intensive agriculture with higher value-added, such as horticulture and green house plantation in Kop van Noord-Holland.

In 2000 in the whole sector of agriculture about 55,000 employees were engaged. The majority of them work in the agriculture sector and only a minority of about 2,000 employees are occupied in the fishery sector. Including about 37,000 jobs in the food processing industry, the total agriculture and food supply chain contains about 92,000 jobs in Wadden Sea Region. Other sectors, like mechani-cal engineering, wholesale food-products and harbour/logistics are directly or indirectly connected with the agricultural sector.

Table 5: Development of sector specific employment in agricul-ture* during the nineties

Agriculture 1990 2000 Change p.a. in % Danish Wadden Sea [1993] 5,800 4,300 -4.2

German Wadden Sea [1992] 54,650 39,400 -4.0

Dutch Wadden Sea [1990] 10,200 11,400 1.1

Prognos AG 2004 according to official national statistics. Note: German period 1992 to 2000 (data Germany: “Erwerbstätige“ not „sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigte“), Danish period 1993-2000, Dutch period 1990-2000. * Due to statistical restrictions the whole sector of agriculture, forestry and fishing.

Regional concentration

The three parts of the Wadden Sea Region have a high concentra-tion degree (ratio of localisation) in agriculture compared to re-spective national averages. The Dutch Wadden Sea Region (ratio of employment: 161, 100=national level) is most specialised in agriculture followed by the German part (ratio: 152) and the Dan-ish part (ratio: 130). Especially in peripheral sub-regions outside the industrial locations, the regional-economic impact and rele-vance of the agriculture sector achieves the highest level.

In the German Wadden Sea area there is a considerable differ-ence between the three agricultural sub-regions of Ostfriesland/ Unterweser, Cuxhaven/ "Altes Land" and Schleswig-Holstein. High

concentrations of jobs in agriculture exist in the more peripheral areas, like Wittmund (8.9%), Cuxhaven (8.3%) or Dithmarschen (6.5%). The agricultural activities are widely spread across all sub-regions in the German Wadden Sea Region. The four districts in Schleswig-Holstein (Pinneberg, Steinburg, Dithmarschen and Nordfriesland) constitute the largest agricultural concentration of about 16,000 jobs. The sub-region Ostfriesland/ Unterweser in Lower Saxony has 13,500 jobs in agriculture, followed by Cux-haven /Altes Land with 9,300 jobs. In the German Wadden Sea Region arable farms have specialised in producing animal feed and market gardening. The stock farming is concentrated in Dith-marschen and Nordfriesland with large livestock of sheep, cows and pigs. Large livestock of pigs and cows, especially dairy cows, exist in the “Unterelbe” area (Steinburg, Stade, Cuxhaven). These agricultural concentrations in Schleswig-Holstein and “Unterelbe” area have a strong supply function for the metropolitan area of Hamburg. The important agricultural locations in the German Wadden Sea Region are closely connected with the food process-ing industry (see chapter 4.3).

Figure 5: Share of employment in agriculture

Agriculture and Fishery - Share of Employees(as of 2000)

3,8

2,4

3,0

5,0

4,9

5,0

0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0

Denmark

Germany

Netherlands

All nation Waddensea

Prognos AG 2004 according to official national statistics

In the Dutch Wadden Sea Region the agricultural activities are mostly concentrated in the province of Fryslân (4.8% employment share) and in Kop van Noord-Holland (7.6%). In both areas about 24,000 jobs depend on the agriculture sector. The sub-region Kop van Noord-Holland is mostly specialised in horticul-ture (44% of the farms with 23% of farming land are operating hor-

ticulture)3. Kop van Noord-Holland for example comprises 16% of total Dutch greenhouse capacities. Between 1990 and 2002 the capacities of greenhouse farming has been enlarged by 21% (2002: 18,000 ha).

Structure and development of farming holdings

The fall in the number of farms and their increase in size continued between 1995 and 2000 in the wake of rationalization and in-creasing production capacities (see Table 6). The number of farms decreased in the Wadden Sea Region by 20% during this time pe-riod. Every fifth farm was closed or absorbed by other farms. For smaller farms one possibility was to operate farming as a sideline business or develop new markets, like farming holidays.

Table 6: Development of farms and agricultural land use 1995-2000

Number of total farms Agricultural land use in ha ha per farm Agricultural land use 1995 2000 in % 1995 2000 in % 1995 2000 Danish Wadden Sea * 10,503 8,320 -20.8 482,939 470,166 -2.6 46.0 56.5

German Wadden Sea 27,275 21,773 -20.2 915,950 900,475 -1.7 33.6 41.4

Dutch Wadden Sea 18,391 14,820 -19.4 472,345 467,890 -0.9 25.7 31.6

Prognos AG 2004 according to official national statistics. Note: * Danish Wadden Sea Re-gion in this case Ribe County and South Jutland County because of missing data for the 10 Danish municipalities.

In contrast to this trend, the amount of agricultural land use in hec-tares has remained more or less on the same level. The result of both trends (closing farms and constant land use) indicates in-creasing land use capacities per farm. On average, farms in the Wadden Sea Region have expanded their farmland by about 22% (about 6 to 11 ha) per farm. However, there are differences be-tween the three parts of the Wadden Sea Region in kind of land use capacities. On average, Danish farms (57 ha per farm) culti-vate the most farming land per farm followed by German farms (41 ha per farm) and Dutch farms (32 ha per farm).

3 Note in comparison: Share of operating farms with horticulture in the Netherlands: 18% with share of farming land use

of 5%. According to Statistics Netherlands quoted University of Groningen.

Table 7: Productivity and income per holding in 1,000 €

[Average per holding] Farm net value added4 Family farm income5

Denmark 2000/01 65.2 23.6

Germany 2000/01 50.8 17.8

Netherlands 1999/00 61.3 15.2

Prognos AG 2004 source European Commission, Directorate-General for Agriculture, FADN. According to national sources for Germany (Ernährungs- und agrarpolitischer Bericht 2004 der Bundesregierung) regional differences in distribution of income exists. Due to regional differences of farm holding size the income varies. The profit per farm in Schleswig-Holstein averages 31,000 € in comparison to Lower Saxony 25,400 € (2002/2003).

The farm net value added and family farm income per average holding vary between the three Wadden Sea countries marginally in comparison to other European states. The average farm net value added is higher in Denmark and the Netherlands than in Germany. Especially in Denmark this can be explained by larger and more rational holding structures; in the Netherlands it is attrib-uted to the horticulture holdings adding high value. The family in-come reaches a similar level, with its highest average of about 23,600 Euro in Denmark. The relatively high farm net value added in Netherlands is benefited by fruitful greenhouse plantation.

Politics and agricultural reforms of the European Union

Large parts of the European agriculture sector wouldn’t exist in to-day’s form without market protection by EU. Two main instruments protect the European agriculture against lower priced foreign com-petitors: subsidies to domestic producers, price guarantees and tariffs on non-European products. In this context the agricultural market reform (CAP reform) is discussed briefly as an excursus because of the reform’s substantial influence on agricultural pro-duction and the perspectives for agriculture in the Wadden Sea Region.

In 2003, EU agricultural ministers adopted a fundamental reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The reform will com-pletely change the way the EU supports the agriculture sector. In future, the vast majority of subsidies will be paid independent of the volume of production. In future, more money will be available to farmers for environmental, quality or animal welfare pro-grammes by reducing direct payments for bigger farms.

4 This is an indicator of the economic performance of the holding. It renumerates family and hired labour, equity and

borrowed capital and the management of the holding. 5 This indicator represents the return on the labour of farmer and family, and on equity capital.

The Council decided to revise the milk, rice, cereals, wheat, and dried fodder and nut sectors. The different elements of the reform will be implemented in 2004 and 2005. The single farm payment will be implemented in 2005. The key elements of the new CAP are:

Single farm payment for EU farmers, independent of produc-tion; limited coupled elements may be maintained to avoid abandonment of production, combined with a reduction in di-rect payments for bigger farms

The payment will be linked to the respect of environmental, food safety, animal and plant health and animal welfare standards, as well as the requirement to keep all farmland in good agricultural and environmental condition,

A strengthened rural development policy with more EU money, new measures to promote the environment, quality and ani-mal welfare and to help farmers to meet EU production stan-dards starting in 2005,

Revisions to the market policy of CAP in case of price cuts in the milk sector (i.e. price for butter will be reduced by 25% over four years), reduction of the monthly increments in the ce-reals sector by half and reforms in the rice, durum wheat, nuts, starch potatoes and dried fodder sectors.

We discuss the respective consequences in more detail when ana-lysing the sub-sectors beneath.

Categories of agricultural products

Table 8: Overview of agricultural holdings by type of activity re-cording by emphasis principle 2000

Number of farms Total / in %

Cultivation of crops

Horticulture / fruit growing

Livestock farms

Non-specialised

farms / others Total

Danish Wadden Sea * 3,253 38.8% 91 1.1% 3,207 38.2% 1,834 21.9% 8,385

German Wadden Sea 2,050 9.5% 899 4.2% 18,440 85.2% 244 1.1% 21,633

Dutch Wadden Sea 2,439 16.5% 1,894 12.8% 9,671 65.3% 816 5.5% 14,820

Prognos AG 2004 according to official national statistics. Note: * Danish Wadden Sea Re-gion in this case Ribe County and South Jutland County because of missing data for 10 Danish municipalities.

The region’s agricultural sector can be subdivided into four main categories of agricultural holdings: livestock farms, holdings spe-cialised in cultivation of crops, horticulture and fruit growing holdings and non-specialised farm types. The fourth category (combined cattle farms with crop plantation) will not be considered

in the following analysis. In the following the three main sub-sectors of the agriculture sector (livestock farming, cultivation of crops and horticulture) are compared according to their structure, development, as well as specialisation in product groups.

Livestock farming: There are about 31,300 livestock farms located in the Wadden Sea Region, which have a main em-phasis on breeding of cattle, dairy cows and pigs. About 80% of all livestock farms in the region are breeding cattle, with a to-tal population of 2 mill. cattle and 0.8 mill. dairy cows. The sec-ond most important species of breeding are pigs (1.1 mill. pigs). Sheep are the third most important group with a total stock of 0.75 mill. animals.

Table 9: Number of livestock farms by species [multiple re-cording of the holdings with mixed livestock]

[Number of farms]

Farms with pigs

Farms with cattle

Farms with dairy cows

Farms with sheep

Total farms with live-

stock Danish Wadden Sea 2000 * 1,733 27% 4,616 72% 2,525 39% 503 8% 6,407 ***

German Wadden Sea 2001 2,640 15% 13,662 77% 9,562 54% 2,517 14% 17,579

Dutch Wadden Sea ** 2001 287 3% 6,600 79% 4,870 58% 3,920 47% 8,400

Prognos AG 2004 according to official national statistics. * Danish Wadden Sea Region in this case Ribe County and South Jutland because of missing data for 10 Danish municipali-ties ** Dutch Wadden Sea Region in this case Province Friesland and Province Groningen, Kop van Noord-Holland with about 1,200 livestock farms is not included in Table 9 because of lack of data. *** The number of 6,407 livestock farms in Danish region includes all farms with livestock inclusive other species than pig, farm, dairy or sheep. Other categories of livestock (like poultry) are not accounted for area-white in WSR by official statistics, so these categories are blinded out.

There are some differences in specialisation between the sin-gle sub-regions. As can be seen in Table 10, there is a rela-tively large amount of pigs in the Danish Wadden Sea Region (but still far below national average or country level). The Dutch area relatively has the highest share of dairy cows and the German Wadden Sea Region is mostly specialised in cattle breeding. The relatively low concentration of “livestock” farms offers an opportunity for development.

Table 11: Total livestock in WSR by species

Livestock by species [Number of animals] Pigs

Beef Cattle

Dairy cows Sheep Total

29,000 110,000 n.a. Danish Wadden Sea Region2001 (10 communities) 30% 70% n.a. 139,000

1,763.826 504,145 178,716 42,902 Counties Ribe and South Jutland 2001 71% 20% 7% 2% 2,489,589

800.149 1.615.509 482.342 379.681 German Wadden Sea 2001 24% 49% 15% 12% 3,277,681

270,899 374,477 356,936 375,429 Dutch Wadden Sea 2001 20% 27% 26% 27% 1,377,741

Prognos AG 2004 according to official national statistics and COWI 2003.

Crop farming: In the Wadden Sea Region about 22,400 crop farms could be identified, cultivating a total area of about 668,000 ha. Several of these crop farms belong also to the category of cattle farms, especially if they are cultivating forage crops, like maize. The majority of agriculture area (60%) in the Wadden Sea Region is used for cultivating cereals with a strong focus on winter wheat. Especially the German and Dan-ish regions are specialised in cultivating cereals, in contrast to the Dutch Wadden Sea Region with its specialisation in pota-toes and horticulture.

Looking at the output volume, cereals (esp. winter wheat) are the most important cultivated products of the Wadden Sea Re-gion with an output level of 2.5 mill. tons, followed by potatoes (1.5 mill. tons) and sugar beets (1.1 mill. tons). Other plants, like rape, have a minor relevance.

Table 12: Area of farms with crops and horticulture by type of plant

Area in 1,000 ha Total crop farm-ing Cereal Horticulture

Crop farming [2000]

Number of

farms Area in 1,000 ha

Winter wheat Total Potatoes Maize

Forage crops Rape

vege-tables Total

Danish Wadden Sea * 5,178 258 71 226 8 n.a. n.a. 15 n.a. n.a.

German Wadden Sea 12,147 300 81 144 8 70 88 18 n.a. n.a.

Dutch Wadden Sea ** 5,149 130 n.a. 44 34 19 n.a. n.a. 2 4

Prognos AG 2004 according to official national statistics. * Danish Wadden Sea Region in this case Ribe County and South Jutland County because of missing data for 10 Danish municipalities. ** Dutch Wadden Sea Region in this case Province Fryslân and Province Groningen.

Table 13: Production of crop farms by type of product (in 1,000 tons)

Production in 1,000 tons Winter wheat

Cereals total Potatoes

Sugar beet Rape Total

Danish Wadden Sea 2000 493 1,271 360 78 41 2,032

German Wadden Sea 1999 695 1,052 322 313 66 1,753

Dutch Northern clay region 1999/2000 ** 147 203 771 717 n.a. 1,780

Prognos AG 2004 according to official national statistics and Farm Accountancy Data Net-work of Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI). * Danish Wadden Sea Region in this case Ribe County and South Jutland County because of missing data for 10 Danish municipalities ** only arable farms without horticulture. Value of the Dutch Northern clay-region is appraisal value calculated by the Farm Accountancy Data Network because of missing official data.

Horticulture: In the Wadden Sea Region about 2,900 holdings of horticulture and fruit plantations are located. The majority (66%) of these holdings are located in the Dutch Wadden Sea Region; the remaining holdings are almost completely in the German part. In the Danish region horticulture doesn’t play an important role. The out-door cultivation and green house culti-vation in the Dutch region is mostly specialised in vegetables (like mushrooms, tomatoes) cut flowers (tulips) and pot plants. In the German Wadden Sea Region the fruit plantation mostly is concentrated in the county of Stade, where more than 80% (750 holdings) of total holdings operate out-door cultiva-tion on about 10,000 ha. The so-called area “Altes Land” be-tween Hamburg and Stade constitutes one of Europe’s largest coherent fruit-growing areas concentrated on apple plantation. Furthermore there is a larger amount of tree nurseries in the sub-region of Pinneberg.

Perspectives of consumption of key agricultural products in Wadden Sea Region

In the following section we will focus on the agricultural products that can be referred to as key products of the Wadden Sea Re-gion. The key products are derived from the analysis of figures of farm structure, used farming land, output value and production volume that we carried out above. The perspectives of the main agricultural products of the Wadden Sea Region will be surveyed in the following abstracts in terms of change of production until 2009/2010. The perspectives are regarded both as status-quo-scenario resp. baseline-scenario and as additional scenario con-sidering the impacts of the CAP-reforms.6

6 according to European Commission, Directorate-General for Agriculture, Prospects for Agricultural Markets in the EU

2003-2010, 2003 and European Commission, Directorate-General for Agriculture, Reform of the Common agricultural Policy a long-Term Perspective for Sustainable Agriculture, Impact Analysis, 2003

Figure 6: Development of meat production in Wadden Sea Re-gion 2002 – 2009 under consideration of CAP-reform

95,0

97,5

100,0

102,5

105,0

107,5

110,0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Beef and veal

Beef and veal with cap-reform

Pig meat

Pig meat with cap-reformBasic 100 = Production volume in 2002

Product Status quo Forecast of Cap reform

Beef Basic price at 2,224 EUR/t with private storage possi-ble at 103% of this price. Safety net intervention level of 1,560 EUR/t Headage payments: 150 EUR for steers (two payments), 210 EUR for bulls/year and 200 EUR/year for suckler cows Slaughter premium of 80 EUR (bulls, steers, cows) and 50 EUR (calves) Eligibility criteria: up to 1.8 LU/ha (from 01.01.2003, currently 1.9 LU), head limit of 90 (with derogation) Extensification premium: 100 EUR/premium (stocking density 1.4 LU/ha). Other options for Member State: National envelope (budget)

No specific measure foreseen, however major implications of decoupling land dedicated to permanent pasture on 21.12.2002 must be maintained in that state (in relation to good farming prac-tice) Granting export subsidies for live ani-mal in line with animal welfare require-ments

Prognos AG 2004 according to European Commission, Prospects for Agricultural Markets in the EU 2003-2010, 2003 and Reform of the Common agricultural Policy a long-Term Per-spective for Sustainable Agriculture, Impact Analysis, 2003

Beef and pork, high livestock concentration especially in German sub-regions, like Nordfriesland (about 680,000 head) and Cuxhaven (480,000 head). Perspectives: Until 2010 the beef consumption and supply will stay on the same level of the year 2002. There are no symptoms of changing supply and demand situation. The pig meat production is expected to in-crease until 2010. The pig meat consumption is positive since pig meat is likely to continue to be favoured by consumers, al-though clearly less than poultry. Per capita pork consumption will increase from 43.7 kg/year in 2002 to around 45.3 kg/year by 2010. Like the cereals, the CAP-reforms will strongly influ-ence the production of beef and pork meat. The production level in the reform scenario will be nearly equal. Between both scenarios the production volume of beef meat varies by about 1.4%.

Dairy products especially produced in Dutch and German sub-regions (like milk, whey and butter). This product category is closely linked with the food processing industry (e. g. proc-essing cheese), which will be regarded in chapter 4.3. Large livestock of dairy cows exist in the sub-regions Friesland (in Germany with: 350,000 head), Leer/Aurich (104,000 head), Cuxhaven (86,000 head) and Nordfriesland (62,000 head). Perspectives: Milk production and deliveries to dairies broadly follow the same development as within the recent years. De-cided in the context of Agenda 2000, on-farm use of milk con-tinues its decreasing trend, whereas direct sales (not con-cerned by the milk quota) increase. Milk deliveries, after an ex-pected short-term overshoot of reference quantities, are as-sumed to stay within quota levels over the projection period. The perspectives for cheese consumption are in general posi-tive. Per capita consumption will rise from 18.7 kg in 2002 to about 20 kg by 2010. Therefore the butter consumption will stay on stable level of 4.5kg per capita.

Figure 7: Development of dairy production in Wadden Sea Re-gion 2002 – 2009 under consideration of CAP-reform

85,0

90,0

95,0

100,0

105,0

110,0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Milk Milk with cap-reform Butter Butter with cap-reform Cheese Cheese with cap-reform

Basic 100 = Production volume in 2002

Product Status quo Forecast of CAP reform

Dairy Quota-regime valid until 2008 Stepwise reduction of intervention price by 15% from 2005/6 onwards Cow premium rising from 5.75 EUR/t to 17.24 EUR/t of quota from 2005/6 onwards plus additional payment (‘top-up’ premium and/or area payment) Global increase of quota by 2.39%

Quotas maintained to 2014/15 Advance by one year Agenda 2000 (i.e. price cut of 15%, compensated by direct payments, extra quota) with an asymmetric price cut of: -3.5%/ year for SMP -7%/year for butter In addition, continuation of these price reductions in 2007 and 2008, with a 1% increase in quotas and corresponding increase in payments Direct payments to be decoupled from the outset (2004) Ceiling to butter intervention: above 30,000 t buying-in by tender


In contrast to the baseline-scenario a different development will be expected in the dairy segment as a result of the CAP-reform. An equivalent increase in EU milk production, which would stand some 2% above 2002 levels by 2009. The pro-posed cut in the support price of butter and skimmed milk powder (SMP) is projected to lead to a sharp fall in milk prices (some 20% below baseline levels by the end of the period). The rise in fat production resulting from the quota increase and the proposed cut in the support price of butter are expected to result into a corresponding fall in butter market price. The lower attractiveness of the butter market would favour the production of cheese and fresh dairy products, which would benefit from lower milk prices. By 2009, cheese production would exhibit a rise of around 8%.

Cereals, in particular winter wheat is especially cultivated in Nordfriesland and Dithmarschen, where nearly 1/3 of total Wadden Sea production is harvested (375,000 tons). Perspec-tives: Between 2002 and 2010 the supply and demand of ce-reals will increase (of approx 1.2% per annum on average) in European Union (EU 15). The EU domestic market will absorb most of this additional production. The growth in domestic con-sumption of cereals will be equally shared between feed and non-feed consumption as the growth in the livestock sector is expected to slow down significantly. It is anticipated that total cereal production area will decline, compensated by an in-crease in average yield on account of the removal of low qual-ity land, higher price perspectives and the relative expansion in high-yielding cereals (e.g. soft wheat and maize). Including the CAP-reform the total cereal production will be roughly 0.5% below the level of the baseline-scenario. The expected impact of the reform on the production level of cereals and wheat is relatively low.

Figure 8: Development of cereals production in Wadden Sea Region 2002 – 2009 under consideration of CAP-reform

95,0

97,5

100,0

102,5

105,0

107,5

110,0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Cereals

Cereals with cap-reform

Wheat

Wheat with cap-reformBasic 100 = Production volume in 2002

Product Status quo Forecast of Cap reform

Cereals Intervention price at 101.31 EUR/t; direct payments of 63 EUR/t multiplied with the reference yield Monthly increments (seven steps each adding 0.93 EUR/t to in-tervention price)

Final intervention price cut of 5% (from the 20% proposed in Agenda 2000), down to 95.35 EUR/t. Increase direct payment to 66 EUR/t, decoupled. Abolition of monthly increments Suppression of the production refunds for starch production from cereals and potatoes


Potatoes, vegetables and fruits (tomatoes, mushrooms, cut flowers, pot plants), are especially produced in the Dutch re-gions of the Wadden Sea Region. Another cropping product is sugar beets with concentrations in Schleswig-Holstein (Stade and Dithmarschen) and the Netherlands. Additionally, one of the well-known fruits of the Wadden Sea Region are apples, especially from Stade. Potatoes are the core product of Dutch arable farming. Economically it is the most important crop. Three categories of potato cultivation can be found in the Netherlands: in addition to ware potatoes (those destined for direct consumption and ready-to-eat products), seed potatoes and starch potatoes are also produced. Dutch seed potatoes are world famous. More than 3,000 farmers, in the province of North Holland and especially in Fryslân, produce 1.2 million tons of seed potatoes. More than 250 different varieties are exported to over eighty countries all over the world. This ac-counts for sixty percent of the worldwide seed potato produc-tion. Ware potatoes are grown in all provinces, with an area twice as large as that devoted to seed potato production. Starch potatoes are grown exclusively for the manufacture of

potato starch. These are cultivated in old fenland areas in Groningen, where peat was dug out in the past. The area is gradually declining. The potato market isn't subject to any interventions by EU market regulations; but it is subject to strong annual yield fluc-tuations, which lead to corresponding yields of crop and in turn determine the respective market situation. The prices can therefore fluctuate strongly from season to season. Consump-tion shifts constantly from fresh commodities to processed products (share 1960: 2%; 1990: 38%; 2000: 45%). Stronger than any other demand for agricultural products the consump-tion of potatoes, which concerns both food potatoes and all other types of use, shrank. The consumption of fodder pota-toes declined even further than the consumption of food pota-toes. By way of contrast, the cultivation of potatoes for indus-trial processing has expanded clearly in recent years. Alto-gether the demand for potatoes seems to have stabilized on the current level.

Up to the beginning of the 90's the per-capita consumption of fresh and processed vegetables rose continuously. Being only about 65kg/head and year at the beginning of the 70's, the consumption of vegetables reached a record level of 92,4 kg/head in 2000/01. Within the last years consumption varied between 90 and 92 kg/head. Estimates put the fresh vegetable share of total vegetable consumption at approximately 50%. There is traditionally a high consumer preference for fresh vegetables, which is clearly supported by the positive image of this product group in terms of vitamins and healthiness. Thanks to the rising consumer preference for healthy and eco-logical products a constant rise in vegetable consumption is to be expected. But nevertheless higher producer's prices cannot be achieved since the quantities produced and imports con-tinue to increase, too.

Summarising the above-mentioned trends and on the basis of the EU baseline and reform scenario, Table 14 shows the future per-spectives for the single product categories.

Table 14: Baseline-scenario and reform-scenario of production of agriculture products in EU 15

Baseline-scenario [without Cap-reform]

Reform-scenario [includ-ing Cap-reform]

[Volume of produc-tion by product] 2002 2009

Change in % 2009

Change in %

Main Trend

Cereals [in mill. t] 209.4 221,1 5.6% 220.0 5.1%

Wheat [in mill. t] 103.3 113.2 9.7% 112.5 8.9%

Beef and veal [gross pro-duction in 1.000 t cwe] 7.502 7.598 1.3% 7.430 -0.1%

Pig meat [gross produc-tion in 1.000 t cwe] 17.796 18.526 4.1% 18.626 4.7%

Milk [in 1.000 t] 121.8 122.0 0.2% 124.4 2.1%

Butter [in 1.000 t] 1.924 1.743 - 9.4% 1.699 - 11.7%

Cheese [in 1.000 t] 7.215 7.667 6.3% 7.823 8.4%

Prognos AG 2004 according to European Commission, Prospects for Agricultural Markets in the EU 2003-2010, 2003 Note: cwe = carcass weight equivalent. Forecasts of potatoes pro-duction and the impact of CAP-reforms are not available at the level agricultural market re-search by the EU-Commission.

Sustainability aspects of agriculture and innovations

Farms in the Wadden Sea Region have been hit by low price de-velopment of agricultural products and increasing costs. Counter-ing this negative trend on their traditional markets the development of new markets or diversification by new products could be an op-portunity to create new demand and to strengthen turnover and profitability. New markets, such as direct marketing of agricultural products, supplying weekly markets or farm holidays are possible options, especially for small and medium-sized farms.

A stable and promising trend is ecological farming. A key-condition for ecological food markets are customers who accept higher prices for organic food. In the Wadden Sea Region in 2002 about 1.8% of total farms were cultivating in accordance with eco-logical standards. Organic farms reach the highest market share in the Danish region, with 8.8%, whereas their market shares in the Dutch and German regions is just between 1 and 2%. A main ad-vantage for organic farms in the Danish region is larger spatial ca-pacities of farms on average, which favours extensive manage-ment, characterised by low levels of inputs per unit area of land; e.g. a low number of livestock units per area. However, the num-ber of ecological farms has fallen in Denmark since 1999. This fact shows that production of organic food can only continue as long as

the consumers are able and willing to pay a higher price that re-flects the higher production costs.

Table 15: Market share of organic farms

Number of farms Organic farms Total farms Share of organic farms

Danish Wadden Sea [2002] 184 2,096 8.8%

German Wadden Sea [2001] 234 21,024 1.1%

Dutch Wadden Sea [2002] 182 10,638 1.7%

Total Wadden Sea Region 600 33,758 1.8%


The market for organic produce varies among the three coun-tries. Due to different reasons (among others high price con-sciousness of consumers, high share of supermarket sales as well as a strong supremacy of the wholesale trade) the consumption in Germany is significantly below the consumption in Denmark. Rela-tively high market shares of ecological foodstuffs are reached in Germany in the area of fruit, vegetables and beef. In the Nether-lands the position of ecological farm products is similarly weak as in Germany. Higher market shares have been reached in the vege-table segment for example (carrots, for instance), however expan-sions have to be expected in the area of potatoes and dairy prod-ucts. In contrast to German and Dutch markets the Danish market of ecological farm products is relatively high developed. In Den-mark the productivity of the farming and the sales of ecological products have increased rapidly due to state actions (like subsi-dies, eco-seals). High market shares up to 15% are reached in the segments of milk, oats, grain, eggs and potatoes.7

The most important channels of distribution can describe the mar-ket perspective best. Direct marketing has great importance with a share of around one third (e.g. milk, beef), the share is nearly half looking at fruits and poultry meat. There would appear to be limits to the possibilities for any considerable increase of sales by means of this distribution channel. Specialized trading still repre-sents a main pillar of the sales of ecological products. However, the growth rates of the sales volume fell recently in comparison with earlier years. This would indicate that no further great im-pulses are to be expected here concerning the demand for eco-logical food. If the consumption of ecological products is to be in-creased decisively, this will have to be carried out primarily via the conventional retail trade. But even if these possibilities are better exploited, the question remains whether the consumers are willing to pay the additional costs for the ecological products. According to

7 according to BMELF, Der Markt für ökologische Produkte in Deutschland und in ausgewählten Ländern, 1999

current studies the consumers would accept an additional price for ecological products of between 20 and 25 per cent. In this context a broad market penetration could probably be expected.

Secondary products of agriculture holdings

Tourism: Tourism plays an important role as a significant support of farmer’s income and is an important economic factor for rural areas. The farm holiday vacation is still a relatively small but grow-ing market segment, with a market share of about 3%. The growth potential for holiday farms is far from being exhausted. A study in Germany showed that about 10% of the German population may be prepared to spend holidays on farms within the next three years (2002 to 2004). However, the interest of the public is often funda-mentally bigger than later demand. The Dutch tourism sector al-ready is more innovative. Camping on farms is already a popular kind of accommodation on the islands of the Dutch Wadden Sea Region. Over 2,000 agricultural businesses offer agro-tourism in the Netherlands. The agro-sector accounts for approximately 20,000 jobs in the tourist industry.8

Renewable materials: Besides tourism and landscape protection it is primarily biomass and renewable primary products promising the greatest potential for farmer’s income in the Wadden Sea Re-gion. Renewable products are more than niche markets for hold-ings; the cultivation of renewable products could be a promising diversification to secure the future of the agricultural enterprises. The agricultural cultivation of renewable primary products in-creased rapidly in the nineties. Additionally consumption and mar-ket shares of bio raw materials in the following applied scopes are rising: bio smearing substance, paints and varnishes or hydraulic oils. In the event of increasing mobility and restricted availability of fossil fuels, bio fuels can make important contributions in securing the supply with renewable fuels. Bio diesel is the only significant renewable fuel at present, with a market share of about 2% on the diesel market, which is expected to rise to about 5% in the medium term. Renewable primary products (like wood, biomass) will also gain increasing significance for the production of energy (see chapter 4.5).

8 Facts and Figures Highlights of Dutch agriculture, nature management and fishery, Ministry of Agriculture,Nature Man-agement and Fisheries, 2000

Outlook

Between 2000 and 2020 the process of structural change will con-tinue, followed by intensification of machine usage, shutdown of farms and the loss of jobs. The perspectives for the agriculture sector must be treated with caution. However, new types of em-ployment (resulting from diversification) and new types of organi-sation (part-time work) are beginning to emerge. Up to 2020 the contribution to GDP will increase slowly and below the average of other branches. The reduction of jobs will continue and by 2020 nearly every third job will have been lost. About 17,000 full time employees will lose their jobs in the following years.

Whereas changes will be moderate in the Danish and Dutch parts, the German Wadden Sea Region will be affected by a fast decline of employment (annual reduction of jobs: 2.6%). The fast decline of jobs in German agriculture is due to the high rate of sideline-farms and relatively fast increase of agricultural productivity in the coming years. In comparison to other European counties, German agriculture depends more strongly on subsides and will be affected the most by new competitors in Eastern Europe.

In a medium-term view the eastern enlargement of the EU will cause further pressure on the agricultural sector in the Wadden Sea Region due to lower labour costs and by an expected reduc-tion in the level of market protection. The new member countries will be fast to target the European export markets with their agricul-tural products (vegetables, fruits, potatoes, meat). The expected reduction of national and EU-subsidies and the stagnation of sales in the wake of an ageing and shrinking population will put further pressure on the economic vitality of the sector. For larger competi-tive farms and agricultural holdings the eastern enlargement will promote perspectives. Since May 2004, about 75 mill. additional consumers could be supplied by the agriculture of the Wadden Sea Region.

Table 16: Forecast of GDP and employment in agriculture sector until 2020

Agriculture Jobs 2000

Jobs 2010

Jobs 2020

Change jobs p.a. in %

Change GDP p.a. in %

Danish Wadden Sea 4,300 3,900 3,500 -1.0% 1.7

German Wadden Sea 39,400 30,500 23,600 -2.6% 0.5

Dutch Wadden Sea 11,400 11,000 10,700 -0.3% 1.4

Prognos AG 2004, World Report 2002

But despite this unfavourable outlook, the agriculture sector in Wadden Sea Region still has considerable potential. The following perspectives are mainly combined with the development of new markets and improvements in efficiency and quality:

In future the consumers attitude towards food and nutrition will become more and more critical. Customers will demand safer and healthier food, quality rather than quantity, the right to know and choose where their food comes from and more ethi-cal treatment of farm animals. Therefore the market share of high quality foodstuffs will rise up to 40% (see Figure 21). The EU agricultural policies will, however, also trigger struc-tural effects in the Wadden Sea Region. There is no future for bulk products. This will be a chance for the agriculture and food industry in Wadden Sea Region to specialise in high-value, high quality and healthy agricultural produce. By means of upgrading and some degree of processing of the products the margins can be increased. A decline in the cultivation of agriculture products in the Wadden Sea Region is expected in the low and medium quality segment of products (except e.g. dairy products), which will be more and more produced by low-cost countries in Eastern Europe. Labelling and branding could be another option to strengthen or to launch regional specialities.

In recent years the distribution of eco-products (dairy, meat, corn, fruit) has been increased by public encouragement (eco-signet) and crises, like BSE or swine fever. Especially Den-mark has achieved advanced market shares in eco-farming, where the supply by eco-food could reach market shares of 10-15% on several product groups in the long-term view.9 The cautious demand of consumers for eco-products indicates the slow enlargement for the future. But especially the higher price-level compared to standard products often keeps con-sumers from buying eco-products. A number of parallel efforts can strengthen the demand for organic products: further ra-tionalisation and economies of scale can allow a continuing ad-justment and lowering of prices and, on the other hand, mar-keting efforts can increase the market volume and raise the willingness to pay for ecological products

Beside the cultivation of agricultural products, alternatives and new markets should be sought and developed in the Wadden Sea Region to generate additional income-opportunities. New markets with promising perspectives for the Wadden Sea area are tourism (farm holidays, camping on farms, etc.) and cultivating of renewable primary products, es-pecially biomass and bio diesel. By 2010 the share of bio die-sel on fuel consumption in the EU is expected to reach 5.75%. By opening these growth markets the agriculture sector in Wadden Sea Region could generate additional turnover and

9 According to “Der Markt für ökologische Produkte ...“ 1999, S. 12. Following product groups: milk, oat, eggs, meal and

potato.

secure employment. Also landscape protection could be an additional source of income for the sector in the Wadden Sea area.

The decoupling of the direct payments is supplemented by an-other important constituent of a new agricultural policy by the EU, namely Cross Compliance. With “Cross Compliance” an interrelationship is created between subsidies and regulatory policy in future. Direct payments will be bound to the compli-ance with existing environmental, protection of animals and quality regulations. We think that “Cross Compliance” is a good instrument to support the implementation of good technical practices and to obtain the social acceptance of direct pay-ments to the agriculture sector. The large majority of the farm-ers who duly economize will profit from this instrument. On the other hand, as a result of the June 2003 agreement farmers will have their subsidies reduced if they do not follow EU rules on protection of the environment, animal welfare, and public, animal and plant health.

Figure 9: Strength and weakness of agriculture sector

Strengths

Soil quality in many parts of the region is very high, climate is suitable and high technical knowledge

Part of agriculture holdings produce on a large scale and are economically vi-able

Large potential to specialise in high quality foodstuffs, especially in eco-products (dairy, meat, corn, fruit)

Presence of natural raw materials for regional products

Possibilities of a second income from tourism, energy production and/or con-tractual nature conservation

Horizontal and vertical expansion of agriculture (cultivation, trade, wind en-ergy, etc.)

Introduction and distribution of regional products with own labels

Important role concerning economic and social cohesion. Providing jobs where other opportunities are limited.

Weaknesses Holdings with conventional and/or

large-scale production suffer from price pressure

Production structure could be more diversified

Sector does not grow - and if so, only slowly

Eastern enlargement of the EU will trigger further pressure on the agri-cultural sector in the wake of lower labour costs and an expected reduc-tion in the level of market protection.

Due to EU-enlargement and run-down of subsidies, increase of competition and market players

Strong dependence on subsidies Limited economic significance re-

duce the possibilities to influence po-litical and economic decisions

All trends of industrial production methods which damage the natural, wealthy image of the Wadden Sea

Alternative developments are partly constrained by existing structures and sales/distribution channels

Sensitive to standards from nature protection and recreation request

Prognos AG 2004

3.2 Fishery


Fishery is an inherent part of the regional economy and regional culture and is an important element of the region’s tourist attraction.

The sector has got a relatively low economic relevance (around 1,500 employees = 0.2% of employment) compared with other sectors. Fishery is highly dependent on EU and national regulations.

The key locations of fish processing in the Wadden Sea Region are Bremerhaven, Cuxhaven and Esbjerg. Key locations of shrimps and mussel processing are Zoutkamp and Emmelsbühl.

The cutter and coastal fishery in Wadden Sea is running combined fishery but most of the fishermen have specialised in fishing for shrimps and mussels.

The conservation of economically efficient and ecologically sustainable fishery will remain the most important challenge.

Especially on the marketing side there are a few starting-points for innovations and improvements of competitiveness

Branch profile and sector development

In the primary sector, fishery is the sub-sector, which contains fish-ing and fish farming in order to process foodstuffs or other fish products, like fish meal and fish oil. The processing of fish food in a closer sense belongs to the food industry and not to the fishery sector. To complete the integral look at the value-added chain of fish, however, the processing of fish as part of the food industry is sometimes also taken into consideration in the following chapter.

The fishery sector has to be sub-classified into different categories in terms of fishing grounds and caught species. Inshore fishing is to be distinguished from (deep) sea fishing. Inshore fishing is operated from small boats and cutters using bow nets and fishing gear or specialised mussel and cockle vessels in tidal wetlands. In contrast to inshore fishing, deep sea fishing is mainly operated in the Atlantic Ocean both by large fishing trawlers and by special-ised deep sea cutters equipped with fishnets for high depth. Mod-ern fish trawlers mostly process fish directly on board and land them at key locations of fish processing and wholesaling.

Whereas the inshore fishing and the cutter deep-sea fishery are an integrative part of the region, regarding fishing grounds (inshore fishery), sales/processing, the region’s culture and tourism attrac-tion), the sea fishing could be called footloose in terms of location. Sea fishing can be operated worldwide from any coastal region.

But from the regio-economic perspective, which is guiding this analysis, the high seas fishery also entails a significant relevance for the Wadden Sea Region in terms of employment and as a ma-jor supplier of the local food processing industry (e.g. Cuxhaven, Esbjerg). Regarding the fishery fleets and the catches it is obvious that the national sectors of the Wadden Sea have specialised in different species and segments:

National / Regional concentration and specialisation

Today Denmark is among the world’s top 15 fishing nations. The Danish fishery fleet consists of 3,831 vessels (Dec. 2002) with a capacity of 105,574 tons. About 5,930 fishermen are working on board of the Danish ships. In terms of capacity it is mainly special-ised in industrial fishing (fishing for producing fish meal or fish oil) and deep-sea-fishing for human consumption. The most important Danish fishing ports are Esbjerg, Thyboron, Hanstholm, Hirtshals and Skagen. Over 80% of the catches are from the North Sea and the Skagerrak. Compared to Germany and Netherlands the fishery sector is also of national economic relevance: In 2000 the export value of fish was DKK 14 billion, corresponding to some 3.5% of Denmark’s total exports. Regarding the registered capacity Esbjerg with a capacity of 21,565 GT (20% of the capacity of the Danish Fishery fleet as of Dec. 2002) and 96 vessels is the largest fishery district in Denmark. The fishery at Esbjerg district is domi-nated by industrial fishery. About 450 people work at the fishery business in the Danish sector of the Wadden Sea Region.

In Germany there were about 2,238 fishing vessels registered in July 2003 (including 1,463 open boats of the small coastal fishery – registered mainly at the BalticSea), which had a capacity of 68,823 GT. 2,226 vessels operated in the coastal and cutter fisher-ies and 12 vessels belong to the category of long distance trawl-ers. About 435 employees in Germany are working for the long distance fleet and nearly 3,700 within the cutter and coastal fish-ery. In 2002 the cutter fishery recorded a catch of 87,700 tons (turnover: € 108.5 mill.), while the long distance fleet caught 120,100 tons (turnover: € 81.5 mill.). The higher turnover of the cutter- and coastal fishery in relation to the long distance fishery resulted from the catch composition, which comprised of more valuable species like shrimps or flatfish. Despite large differences between individual fleets, the yield situation of the German fishery overall slightly improved in 2001 and 2002. After severe structural adjustments over recent years there are still about 900 people working in the fishery business in the German sector of the Wad-den Sea, spread over the segments mentioned above. Regarding

fleets and employment the German Wadden Sea fishery is domi-nated by shrimp fishery.10

The fishery fleet of the Netherlands consists of 511 active Vessels comprising 17 deep sea trawlers, 393 fish cutters and 81 mussel and cockle vessels. The total employment amounts to 2,650 man years. In 2002 the turnover of the Dutch high-sea and inshore fish-ery fleet was about € 463 mill. Whereof 126 mill. Euro was from the deep sea fishery, € 260 mill. from the cutter and coastal fishery and € 78 mill. from the mussel and cockle fishery. Apart from shell-fish fishery the overall situation of the Dutch fishery fleet was un-satisfactory in 2002.11 Most important in the Dutch Wadden Sea Region is the shrimp fishery, cockle fishery and mussel cultivation. The Dutch deep sea fishery is not carried on from locations in the Wadden Sea Region. In the whole fishery sector of the region there are about 235 jobs in the various fishery activities (see Table 18). The Wadden Sea fishery generates a turnover of around 71 mill. Euro per year.

Regarding the Wadden Sea Region as a whole we can say that the cutter and coastal fishery, which is in the focus of the following analysis, though mostly operated as a combined fishery, is mainly specialised in shrimp and mussel fishery. Regarding its economic relevance and economic strength, the fishery sector in the Wadden Sea Region is relatively weak - both in absolute as well as relative terms. In 2000 just about 0.2% of the total labour force were em-ployed in the fishery sector in the Wadden Sea Region.

The Dutch fishing fleet of Wadden Sea concentrating on shrimp-fishery, cockle fishery and mussel cultivation, is located at the ports of Wieringen, Harlingen and Lauwersoog (Dongeradeel). The key fishery ports of the Danish Wadden Sea Region are Esbjerg and Ribe. Besides the main locations at Bremerhaven and Cux-haven the key fishery ports of the German Wadden Sea are Greetsiel, Norddeich and Dorum/Wreden in Lower Saxony and Friedrichskoog, Büsum and Husum in Schleswig-Holstein.

Only in the Danish Wadden Sea Region does the fishery sector account for a relatively high employment share (0.6%). But the fishery sector is of high local relevance especially for locations of the food processing industry, like Cuxhaven (labour force in fish-ery: 0.5%), Bremerhaven (0.6%), Esbjerg (0.9%) and Lauwer-soog/ Zoutkamp where the largest capacities of fish processing in the region are concentrated (see Table 17). In these three sub-regions the fishery and fish processing sector represents a cluster with strong economic relevance and employment shares up to

10All figures by Federal Ministry of Consumer Protection, Food and Agriculture. http://www.portal-fischerei.de 11 See LEI: Visserij in Cijfers 2002, Den Haag, 2003.

5.7% of total employment. High concentrations of fishery and fish processing are reached in Bremerhaven (5.7%), Cuxhaven (3.8%) and Esbjerg (2.9%). Regarding the market for shrimp processing and trading, the Dutch market leader Heiploeg BV in Zoutkamp and the main Dutch harbour of the shrimp fishery fleet in Lauwer-soog form a strong cluster in Dongeradeel/De Marne.

Table 17: Regional dependency on fishery and fish-processing

Fishery [2000]

Number of jobs in fishery

Share fishery of total employment in %

Number of jobs in fishery & processing

Fishery & processing share of total em-

ployment in %

Esbjerg 425 0.9 1,354 2.9 Danish Wadden Sea 496 0.6 1,618 2.0

Bremerhaven 245 0.5 3,537 5.7 Cuxhaven 245 0.6 2,452 3.8

German Wadden Sea 892 0.2 7,339 1.0 Dutch Wadden Sea 293 * 0.1 582 0.1 Dongeradeel/De Marne 77 * 0,7 177 1.7

Harlingen 58 * 1.1 84 1.7 Wieringen 100 * 5.1 105 5.4

Prognos AG 2004 according to official national statistics and Studies of regional, socio-economic studies in the fishery sector Denmark, Germany, Netherlands 1999. * Including sport fishery and others

Sector development in the Wadden Sea Region

Fishery has been affected by strong processes of rationalisation that for instance led to the loss of every third job in fishery between 1993 and 2000 in the Danish Wadden Sea Region.

Table 18: Development of sector specific employment in fishery during the nineties

Fishery [number of jobs] 1990 2000 Change p.a. in % Danish Wadden Sea [1993/2000] 627 447 -4.7

German Wadden Sea [1996/2000] 1,247 892 -8.0

Dutch Wadden Sea [1990/2001] 199 235 +1.5

Prognos AG 2004 according to Statistikbanken Danmark; Statistisches Amt für Hamburg und Schleswig-Holstein; Niedersächsisches Landesamt für Statistik; LEI: Regionaal-economisch belang van de Waddenzeevisserij, Den Haag 2003, p.55.

Less than 20% of the employees work on the fish trawlers of the deep sea fishery fleet. The majority of the employees work in the cutter deep sea and costal fishery. More than 80% of the busi-nesses of the inshore and cutter fishery are run as a family busi-

ness with usually not more than one boat.12 EU- and national modernisation programmes have led to more modern and efficient fleets, especially in the Netherlands, but there is still a larger pro-portion of old ships in Germany and Denmark. Just a few boats are classified as deep sea cutters, and medium-sized cutters mainly compose the fleets. The inshore fishery with small open boats has almost disappeared completely along the North Sea coast.

Table 19: Classification of Vessels by Age

Age Netherlands 2002

(cutter fleet, whole coun-try)

German Wadden Sea 2001

(cutter fleet)

Denmark 1998 (fishery fleet,

whole country) 0-10 years 85 22% 21 7% 343 7%

11-20 years 147 37% 70 22% 1,182 26%more than 20 years 161 41% 221 71% 3,058 67%

Total 393 100% 312 100% 4,583 100%

Prognos AG 2004 according to Kleine Hochsee- und Küstenfischerei Schleswig Holsteins im Jahre 2001, Jahresbericht des Amtes für ländliche Räume Kiel; Die Kleine Hochsee- und Küstenfischerei Niedersachsens und Bremens 2001, Jahresbericht des Staatlichen Fischereiamtes Bremerhaven; LEI: Visserij in Cijfers 2002, Den Haag 2003; MacAlister Elliott & Partner Ltd: Regional socio-economic studies on employment and the level of dependency on fishing, Lymington Hampshire 1999.

Situation of the Deep Sea Fishery

The deep sea fishery sector worldwide is facing the problem of de-clining stocks and over fishing. Especially in the North Atlantic and the North Sea essential stocks of certain species have suffered substantial and unrelenting decline. The large number of fishing vessels and their increasing efficiency as a result of technical pro-gress have led to more intense exploitation of stocks. Despite a lot of national and international efforts for a sustainable stock man-agement the fishery of fish for sale and consumption is still facing the problem of over fishing, affecting the fishery by lack of stocks and restrictive EU-quotas.13

At the Danish Wadden Sea 52 Ships have got a capacity of more than 100 GT and are therefore mainly operating in deep sea fish-ery. They account for 20,165 GT, more than 90% of the capacity registered at Esbjerg. It is mainly industrial fishery that uses the capacities. At the German Wadden Sea the deep sea fishery is mainly operated by five trawlers with a staff of 210 people in Cux-

12 E.g. in the Dutch Cutter and Coastal fishery in 2002 85% of the businesses had got just one ship. See LEI Visserij in Ci-

jfers 2002, p.42. 13 This issue gives rise to a great deal of controversy as to whether EU regulations make sense and wether national and

EU-authorities are able to control the restrictions. One example: Some experts assume declinig stocks are not a prob-lem of overfishing but a problem of climate change, with fishes leaving the North Sea and moving towards colder grounds (e.g. cod-fish).

haven and Bremerhaven, who are only fishing for human con-sumption.

The figures below show the catches/landings of the national deep sea fishery fleets (see Table 20). The most important species of fish caught for human consumption by the deep sea fleet are her-ring, whiting and mackerel. The landings of the German fleet in domestic ports are still decreasing; in particular the German deep-sea fleet is more and more landing their load at foreign harbours, like Dutch, Danish and Icelandic harbours. This underlines the mobile character of the deep sea fleet, whereas the cutter deep sea and the coastal fishery is an integrative part of the regional economic structure of the Wadden Sea Region. But also cutter and coastal fishermen are already landing 1/3 of their catches at Dutch or Danish ports.

Table 20: Landings/Catches of the German and Danish Deep-Sea Fishery Fleet by Species 2002

Denmark Germany Landings/Catches Deep Sea Fleet (in tons)

Total Catches Landings at

German Harbours

Landings Abroad

Total Landings

Mackerel 13,077 5,262 19,366 24,628 Horse Mackerel 10,285 3,597 12,568 16,165 Redfish 36 3,822 4,475 8,297 Pollack 160 810 643 1,453 Halibut 49 1,015 751 1,766 Herring 59,188 682 33,357 34,039 Whiting/Blue Whiting 42,654 0 14,242 14,242 Cod 4,222 613 1,012 1,625 Pilchard 3,523 38 3,014 3,052 Norway Pout 76,694 0 0 0 European Sprat 185,981 0 0 0 Sand eel 617,163 0 0 0 Others 32,505 85 2,257 2,342 Total 1,045,537 15,924 91,685 107,609

Prognos AG 2004 according Ministeriet for Fodevarer, Landbrug og Fiskeri: Fiskeristatistik Arbog 2002 (Danish figures include catches of vessels with a capacity of more than 100 GT); Federal Ministry of Consumer Protection, Food and Agriculture: Annual Report on German Fisheries 2003.

For a number of years industrial fishing has been by far the most important branch of fishing in Denmark with a total catch landed of 1.1 mill. tons. The industrial fishery fleet of Denmark is mainly catching Sand Eel, European Sprat and Norway Pout. Regarding the total landings, Esbjerg is the most important harbour for indus-trial fishery in Denmark. In 2002 approximately 93% of all landings into the port were for industrial purposes, indicating the high local dominance of this activity.

Figure 10: Landings of the Danish industrial fishery in Danish re-gions

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Total Landings (in 1,000t)

Share of Landings of Industrial Fish by districts

Nordjylland 24%

Viborg10%

Others5%

Ribe34%

Rikobing27%

Prognos AG 2004 according to Ministeriet for Fodevarer, Landbrug og Fiskeri: Fiskerista-tistik Arbog 2002

Situation of the cutter and coastal fishery

The cutter and coastal fishery in general uses a large number of different catching methods and equipment and can be separated into different segments. Generally it is specialised in more valuable species like shrimps, mussels and flatfish. The main fishing of the cutter and coastal fishery in the Wadden Sea is inshore shrimp fishery and mussel fishery (especially blue mussel). But most of the fishermen change their fishing equipment and fishing grounds by season and belong to combined inshore fishery (mostly shrimp fishery with share of flatfish fishery). Additionally there are, especially in Germany, a number of businesses, which belong to the cutter deep sea fishery.

Mussels are cultivated on artificial shell banks; therefore it is some-times classified as a kind of aquaculture. The mussel fishery is run by specialised ships, which cannot be used for combined fish-ery. Especially shrimps and mussels guaranteed the fishermen along the Wadden Sea coast a relatively high and stable income in the past years compared with fishermen specialised in other spe-cies. According to figures of the German cutter and coastal fishery of 1999 to 2002 the profit of an average enterprise specialised in shrimp fishery is about 40% higher than the profit of enterprise fishing exclusively for fish.14 Nevertheless the fishery sector and

14 See German Federal Ministry of Consumer Protection, Food and Agriculture: Annual Report on German Fisheries

2003, p. 46.

especially the cutter and coastal fishery suffer from a high volatility of catches and market prices. Regarding the development in the German Wadden Sea Region from a long-term perspective, during the last 20 years the market situation of the cutter and coastal fishery was characterized by a continuing decline of amounts and the simultaneous stabilization of prices. But generally speaking there can be stated a positive economic perspective for the in-shore fishery, mainly because of a stable demand side for fish and seafood.

The total landings of the Wadden Sea cutter- and coastal-fishery (shrimp fishing, flatfish fishing and mussel cultivation) account for about 126,000 tons with a total value of about 175 mill. Euro. (The Danish figures in the chart below include the deep sea fishery of fish for consumption of Esbjerg, indicated by significantly lower prices per ton).

Figure 11: Turnover of the Wadden Sea cutter and coastal fishery by country (2001/2002)

69.500,00

71.900

26.700

0 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 80.000

German WSR

Dutch WSR**

Danish WSR *

Turnover (1,000€) Prognos AG 2004 according to Ministeriet for Fodevarer, Landbrug og Fiskeri: Fiskeristatistik Arbog 2002; Kleine Hochsee- und Küstenfischerei Schleswig Holsteins im Jahre 2001, Jahresbericht des Amtes für ländliche Räume Kiel; Die Kleine Hochsee- und Küstenfischerei Niedersachsens und Bremens 2001, Jahresbericht des Staatlichen Fischereiamtes Bremerhaven; LEI: Regionaal-economisch belang van de Waddenzeevisserij, Den Haag 2003. Figures for Sonderjylland and Ribe include landings of the deep sea fishery fleet (without industrial fishery) ** Average 1998-2001

Table 21: Number of ships and employment of the Wadden Sea cutter and coastal fishery fleet.

Mainly Fish Mainly Shrimps

Mussels/ Cockles Total

Ships Staff Ships Staff Ships Staff Ships Staff Danish Wadden Sea * 87 310 k.A. k.A. 9 36 96 346German Wadden Sea 54 162 227 492 13 49 294 703 Schleswig Holstein 27 54 97 232 8 29 132 315 Lower Saxony 27 108 130 260 5 20 162 388Dutch Wadden Sea 0 0 92 195 10 39 102 234Total Wadden Sea Region 141 472 319 687 32 124 492 1,283

Prognos AG 2004 according to Ministeriet for Fodevarer, Landbrug og Fiskeri: Fiskerista-tistik Arbog 2002; Amt für ländliche Räume, Kiel 2004; Staatliches Fischereiamt, Bremer-haven 2004; LEI: Regionaal-economisch belang van de Waddenzeevisserij, Den Haag 2003. * Danish fleet includes ships of the deep-sea fishery fleet

Despite the domination of shrimp and mussel fishery in the Wad-den Sea, the fishing for fish for sale and consumption is still play-ing an important role both as part of combined fishery and as cut-ter deep sea fishery.

Table 22: Landings of the German and Danish Wadden Sea cutter and coastal fishery fleet by species 2001/2002

Demark * Germany in tons South Jutland Ribe Schleswig

Holstein Lower Saxony

Cod 1,148 70Other Codfishes 33 1,421

390 1,533

European Plaice 49 1,005 2,801 1,329Other Flatfishes 166 288 107 538Herring 640 21,040 - -Mackerel 0 285 1 -Pollack - - 629 6,630Sole - - 422 425Eel - - 10 21Whiting - - 30 186Others - - 10 1,157Total 2,036 24,109 4,400 11,819

Prognos AG 2004 according to Ministeriet for Fodevarer, Landbrug og Fiskeri: Fiskeristatistik Arbog 2002; Kleine Hochsee- und Küstenfischerei Schleswig Holsteins im Jahre 2001, Jahresbericht des Amtes für ländliche Räume Kiel; Die Kleine Hochsee- und Küstenfischerei Niedersachsens und Bremens 2001, Jahresbericht des Staatlichen Fischereiamtes Bremerhaven.* Figures for Sonderjylland and Ribe include landings of the deep-sea- isheryfleet (without industrial fishery)

Regarding the vessels registered in the Wadden Sea Region the fishery for sale and consumption is only done by German and Dan-ish fishermen. But a sharp classification by species or fishing grounds is difficult. Most of the Danish vessels, for instance, be-

long to the cutter deep sea fishery but a large number of German vessels are operating a combined fish and shrimp fishery. The share of fish fishery and the fishing grounds of the combined fish-ery are changing year by year, depending on stocks and quotas. The high sea cutters of the cutter deep sea fleets carry out up to 14-day journeys and operate, similar to the deep sea fishery above, in international waters, e.g. off Greenland or Iceland. The main harbours of the German fishery fleet are Büsum, Emden and Cuxhaven.

Table 23: Number of cutters and employees of the fishery fleet mainly operating in fishery of “Fish for Sale and Con-sumption” by harbour

Fishery Fleet (Mainly Fish) Ships Jobs

Danish Wadden Sea 87 310 German Wadden Sea 54 162 Schleswig Holstein 27 54 Friedrichskoog 4 8 Tönning 6 12 Büsum 17 34 Lower Saxony 27 108 Emden * 11 44 Brake 6 24 Cuxhaven 10 40 Dutch Wadden Sea 0 0 Total 141 472

Prognos AG 2004 according to Ministeriet for Fodevarer, Landbrug og Fiskeri: Fiskerista-tistik Arbog 2002; Amt für ländliche Räume, Kiel 2004; Staatliches Fischereiamt, Bremer-haven 2004; LEI: Regionaal-economisch belang van de Waddenzeevisserij, Den Haag 2003. (Job figures partly estimated) * The ships registered at Emden are fully owned by Dutch Fishermen and could also be seen as part of the Dutch Wadden Sea fleet.

In general the landed fish is sold directly to the purchaser, handed over to a fish-collecting agency, or presented at a fish auction by the fisherman himself. Despite a specialisation in high-priced spe-cies the average turnover per ship or per employee is relatively low, showing that the income situation of ordinary fishery is diffi-cult, compared to shrimp or mussel/cockle fishery. Especially the cutter offshore fishery is therefore facing severe problems recruit-ing young fishermen. Additionally the hard working conditions, long offshore journeys and formal barriers for fleet modernization make the cutter fishery of fish for sale and consumption the weakest sub-sector of the Wadden Sea fishery.

Figure 12: Landings and earnings of the Wadden Sea cutter and coastal fishery (Fish for sale and consumption) by country

29.207

4.000

16.117

0

17.852

26.449

0 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000

German WSR

Dutch WSR**

Danish WSR *

Turnover (1,000€) Landings (tons)

Prognos AG 2004 according to Ministeriet for Fodevarer, Landbrug og Fiskeri: Fiskeristatistik Arbog 2002; Kleine Hochsee- und Küstenfischerei Schleswig Holsteins im Jahre 2001, Jahresbericht des Amtes für ländliche Räume Kiel; Die Kleine Hochsee- und Küstenfischerei Niedersachsens und Bremens 2001, Jahresbericht des Staatlichen Fischereiamtes Bremerhaven; LEI: Regionaal-economisch belang van de Waddenzeevisserij, Den Haag 2003.* Including Deep Sea Fishery for Sale and Consump-tion ** Turnover of so called “Other Fishery at the Wadden Sea” (mainly sportfishery). For the Dutch Wadden Sea cutter and coastal fishery no official data is available on fish for sale and consumption .

Development of the shrimp segment

General market view: The worldwide shrimp production - includ-ing catches and aquaculture - has expanded over the past decade from 2.4 million MT in 1987 to 4.0 million MT in 1999. The world main shrimp producing country is China with 1.2 million MT. China is also mainly responsible for the strong increase. The following three major shrimp producing countries - Indonesia, India and Thailand - have experienced many ups-and-downs during the pe-riod, with production oscillating between 300,000 and 400,000 MT.

Especially coldwater shrimp-catches have increased in recent years. About 500,000 MT of coldwater shrimps are produced each year. Pandalus borealis is by far the main species; accounting for about 70% of total coldwater shrimp catches.

The Crangon catches, the cold water shrimps species of the Wad-den Sea, are rather limited at about 20-30,000 MT per year. The main producing country is Germany, followed by the Netherlands. In 1990, the Crangon crangon catch collapsed to only 15,500 MT. Overfishing was a problem during this year. At present catches have gone back to normal. In 2001 some 32,000 MT were caught.

Figure 13: Crangon crangon catches

Prognos AG 2004 according to FAO GLOBEFISH, "World Coldwater Shrimps Markets" 2003

Despite the increase in catches, coldwater shrimp is still relatively unimportant when compared to tropical shrimp. The share of cold-water shrimp of total shrimp production is rather stable at around 12%. In the following there is given a short overview of some im-portant markets in Europe:

Tropical shrimps dominate the French shrimp market. In 2002, about 75% of the French shrimp imports were tropical shrimps. Total French shrimp imports expanded strongly between 1988 and 1993 from 43,000 MT to 76,000 MT. This increase was due to higher imports of cultured shrimp, mainly coming from Thailand and Ecuador. Since then the French shrimp imports have stabilized at 70,000 MT. Greenland is the main exporter of coldwater shrimp to the French market, the shrimp is mainly shipped in shell-on form. Iceland and Norway export about 500 MT of cooked and peeled coldwater shrimp to the French mar-ket. Traditionally France prefers coldwater shrimp, but the presence of tropical shrimp on the market has expanded in re-cent years. In 1988, 45% of the supply was coldwater shrimp. At present about 80% of the supply is tropical shrimp, the re-mainder is coldwater. The French shrimp market is varied, ac-cepting both cooked and peeled as well as shell-on shrimp

The German consumers, especially in the coastal areas, pre-fer the Crangon crangon. Nevertheless, the presence of tropi-cal shrimp on the market is expanding. As for other food items, the German market is very price conscious, and only low priced products are accepted. Therefore, in years of high Crangon crangon prices, the traders move to Pandalus bore-alis as a substitute. The cooked and peeled shrimp market is expanding in Germany, as is the canned shrimp market - mainly coming from Thailand and Malaysia. Cultured shrimp played an important role in the expansion of German shrimp consumption.

Overall, the EU shrimp market is very complex, with certain geographical differences. Coldwater shrimp is generally pre-ferred in the Northern part of the continent. Crangon crangon is the best liked species in countries like the Netherlands, Bel-gium, and (Northern-)Germany. On the other hand, Pandalus borealis is well accepted in Sweden and the UK. In the Medi-terranean countries, warm water shrimp is preferred. The boom in EU imports of shrimp was caused by an increase in cultured shrimp production. China is now replacing Ecuador as a white shrimp supplier to the EU.

Having a further look at the German foreign trade with mussels and shrimps, it's only a relatively small portion within the range of imported goods, but it has a high value for the German fish sector within the range export however. In 2000 approximately 57,000 t with a value of € 225.2 mill. were imported. Approximately 31,000 t with a value of € 79.4 mill. were exported.

Table 24: German Exports and Imports of shrimps and mussels

Import 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1,000 tons 45.2 40.1 38.0 51.8 50.3 57.0 1,000 € 168.7 157.7 171.8 216.8 182.2 225.2 Price per kg 3.73 3.93 4.52 4.18 3.63 3.95 Export 1,000 tons 15 33 28 37 28 31 1,000 € 36.2 52.4 50.4 63.8 64.7 79.4 Price per kg 2.37 1.61 1.82 1.73 2.33 2.58

Prognos AG 2004 according to BBE-Branchenreport Fisch 2002 according to Jahresbericht über die deutsche Fischwirtschaft, verschiedene Jahrgänge

Focus on the WSR: Most of the fishermen of the German Wad-den Sea Region have specialised in shrimp fishing. Regarding the fact that the shrimp fishery accounts for about 50% of total turn-over of the cutter and coastal fishery and that the enterprises mainly run as combined fishery, shrimp fishery can be seen as the main economic basis for the small family-owned businesses in the Wadden Sea Region.

Table 25: Number of Cutters and Employees of the Shrimp Fish-ery Fleet (incl. Combined Shrimp Fishery) by Harbour

Fishery Fleet (Mainly Shrimp Fishery) Ships Jobs Danish Wadden Sea 0 0German Wadden Sea 227 492Schleswig Holstein 97 232 Friedrichskoog 27 67 Tönning 13 32 Büsum 19 47 Husum 15 37 Pellworm 8 16 Wyk/Föhr 7 17 Wittdün 1 2 Hooge 2 4 List 3 6 Nordstrand 2 4Lower Saxony 130 260 Pogum 1 2 Ditzum 5 10 Emden 2 4 Greetsiel 26 52 Norddeich 14 28 Accumersiel 12 24 Neuharlingersiel 14 28 Harlesiel 8 16 Horumersiel 1 2 Hooksiel 4 8 Varel 2 4 Fedderwardersiel 8 16 Wremen 5 10 Dorum 8 16 Spieka 5 10 Cuxhaven 15 30Dutch Wadden Sea 92 195Kop van Noordholland 22 52 Wieringen 18 41 Texel 3 9 Den Helder 1 2Fryslân 26 55 Stavoren 2 4 Harlingen 14 29 Terschelling 6 13 Wonseradeel 4 9Groningen 44 88 Delfzijl 2 4 Termunten 1 2 Lauwersoog 41 82Total Wadden Sea Region 319 687

Prognos AG 2004 according to Ministeriet for Fodevarer, Landbrug og Fiskeri: Fiskerista-tistik Arbog 2002; Amt für ländliche Räume, Kiel 2004; Staatliches Fischereiamt, Bremer-haven 2004; LEI: Regionaal-economisch belang van de Waddenzeevisserij, Den Haag 2003.

The main German harbours of the shrimp fishery fleet are Greet-siel, Norddeich, Cuxhaven, Neuharlingersiel and Accumersiel in Lower Saxony and Friedrichskoog, Büsum, Husum and Tönning in Schleswig Holstein. The Dutch shrimp fishery in the Wadden Sea Region accounts for almost 50% of the total shrimp landing value at Dutch auctions and creates an average of 200 jobs in the re-gion. The main ports for the shrimp fishery fleet in the Dutch sector are Lauwersoog, Wieringen and Harlingen.

The shrimp fishery is selling 80 to 90% of the catches to the mar-ket-leading Dutch traders (Heiploeg BV, Zoutkamp and Klaas Puul & Zoon BV, Volendam), which dominate about 85% of the market for shrimp processing and wholesaling. The rest is sold at local markets. These trade links in the shrimp fishery are one ex-ample for the strong existing cross-links of the fishery sector in the whole Wadden Sea Region.

The processing of shrimps is still a handwork-dominated process and therefore done mainly in Maroco, Belorussia and Poland. At-tempts at having the processing by machines to keep it in the re-gion have failed.

Figure 14: Landings and Earnings of the Wadden Sea Shrimp Fishery by Country

35.318

16.500

9.448

8.630

7.757

2.175

0 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000 40.000

German WSR

Dutch WSR**

Danish WSR *

Turnover (1,000€) Landings (tons)

Prognos AG 2004 according to COWI: Report and Assessment of socio economic data in the Danish sector of the Wadden Sea Region, 2003, p. 80; Kleine Hochsee- und Küstenfischerei Schleswig Holsteins im Jahre 2001, Jahresbericht des Amtes für ländliche Räume Kiel; Die Kleine Hochsee- und Küstenfischerei Niedersachsens und Bremens 2001, Jahresbericht des Staatlichen Fischereiamtes Bremerhaven; LEI: Regionaal-economisch belang van de Waddenzeevisserij, Den Haag 2003. ** Average 1998-2001

Actually the shrimp fishery faces a charge lodged by the Dutch Antitrust Division. The shrimp fishery is not regulated by EU-quotas. In the recent years the national producers’ cooperatives of the fishermen and the Dutch wholesalers have fixed prices and amounts annually by trilateral agreements. In January 2003 the

Dutch Antitrust Division put a stop to these agreements and in-flicted a penalty of 14 mill. € against the wholesalers. In the ab-sence of the former agreements the fishermen have increased their catches and the price per kilo fell by 25% in 2003, leading to severe cuts in earnings and profits on the fishermen’s side. The current situation with stable retail prices and a drop in producer prices reveals the weak market power of the fishermen and the strong influence of the oligopolistic structures of the wholesale and processing-industry. Therefore currently at the EU-level political at-tempts are being made to come to a legal acceptance of trilateral agreements to strengthen the position of the fishermen.

Development of the mussels and cockle segment

General market view: Total world production of mussels in-creased from 164,000 tons in 1950 to 1.6 mill. tons in 2000, repre-senting a 7.2% decline from the peak of 1.7 mill. tons experienced in 1999. The growth has been rather regular until 1999, with a more significant increase in the 1990s and in particular in 1998 (+18% compared to 1997). In 2000, 84.7% of the total mussel pro-duction was cultured mussel. The increase in total mussel produc-tion is therefore a result of the increase in aquaculture production (+21.4% for the period 1990-2000 and +33.4% for the period 1990-1999).

Figure 15: World total production of mussels, 1950-2000

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

1 00

0 t

OthersNetherlandsFranceNew ZealandDenmarkItalySpainChina

Prognos AG 2004 according to FAO GLOBEFISH, "The world market for mussel" 2002

Blue mussel is the main mussel caught in the wild and accounts for 62.2% of total mussel capture fisheries. The share of mussel fisheries in total mussel production has declined in recent years to

15% in 2000. In 1970 this share was 41%, in 1980 25% and in 1990 19%. This decline was a result of the expansion in mussel culture production as well as of the steady drop in the mussel fish-eries in recent years.

China is by far the leading mussel producer, with 535,000 tons in 2000, representing 34.3% of the total output, followed by Spain (248,000 t), Italy (136,000 t), Denmark (111,000 t), New Zealand (80,000 t), France (78,000 t) and the Netherlands (67,000 t).

In terms of volume in 2000, the Netherlands was the leading mussel exporter with 44,000 tons, representing 18.4% of the total exports, followed by Denmark (27,500 t). The bulk (85.3%) of Dutch exports consists of live, fresh or chilled mussels and is mainly directed towards neighbouring countries such as Belgium, France and Germany. The Netherlands has been one of the major mussel exporting countries for over a century. Dutch mussel cul-ture is a ground, not a rope culture and mussels grow on the sandy bottom of the shallow inland seas of the Eastern Scheldt and Wadden Sea.

Figure 16: World exports of mussels by country

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000

US$

1 m

illio

n

OthersGermanyCanadaChinaIrelandSpainDenmarkNew ZealandNetherlands


Spain is considered one of the major mussel-consuming countries in Europe together with France and Italy. It is the second main producer of cultured mussels in the world and the fourth exporter. Main outlets for Spanish mussel production are Italy and France, but also Germany. On the other hand, Belgium is one of the major markets for European mussels, with an annual consumption of about 14.0 kg per family unit.

In 2000, France was the world leading mussel importer, volume-wise, with 48,000 tons, worth US$ 56.9 million, followed by Italy

(30,200 t), Germany (29,700 t), Belgium (28,500 t) and the USA (19,600 t). In 2000 European countries imported 82.4% of the vol-ume and 72.4% of the value of the total world mussel exports. The EU therefore represents the main market for mussels in the world, even if its consumption varies greatly between the different EU member states. Among the major consuming countries we find It-aly, Belgium, France, Spain, the Netherlands and Germany. EU mussel trade takes place mainly inside the EU and in 2000 only 5% of the total volume of mussel imports originated from non-EU countries, from New Zealand (50.2%), Chile (23.1%) and Turkey (16.4%) in particular. Imports from non-EU countries consist mainly of frozen or canned mussels.

Figure 17: World imports of mussels by country

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

US$ 1 million

Belgium France USA Italy Germany Spain UK Others


Focus on the WSR: The mussel and cockle fishery is particularly strong in the Dutch part of the Wadden Sea Region. 220 people are employed full time in the Dutch mussel cultivation sector gen-erating a total turnover of € 35 mill., primarily on one of 71 mussel trawlers (including vessels that are based at harbours outside the Wadden Sea Region but which are fishing at the Wadden Sea). The cockle fishery, which takes primarily place in the Wadden Sea, is in terms of employment a very small sub-sector but accounts for about € 12 mill. turnover per year. Yerseke in the province of Zee-land is the main harbour for the mussel and cockle fishery fleet and also by far the largest location for the wholesaling and proc-essing of mussels.

Table 26: Number of vessels and employees of the mussel and cockle fishery fleet by harbour

Mussel and cockle fishery fleet Ships Jobs Danish Wadden Sea 9 36 German Wadden Sea 13 49 Schleswig Holstein 8 29 Husum 1 4 Wyk/Föhr 7 25 Lower Saxony 5 20 Greetsiel 1 4 Norddeich 2 8 Hooksiel 2 8 Dutch Wadden Sea 10 39 Kop van Noordholland 5 21 Wieringen 4 14 Texel 1 7 Fryslân 3 13 Harlingen 3 13 Groningen 2 5 Delfzijl 1 2 Lauwersoog 1 3 Total Wadden Sea Region 32 124

Prognos AG 2004 according to Ministeriet for Fodevarer, Landbrug og Fiskeri: Fiskerista-tistik Arbog 2002; Amt für ländliche Räume, Kiel 2004; Staatliches Fischereiamt, Bremer-haven 2004; LEI: Regionaal-economisch belang van de Waddenzeevisserij, Den Haag 2003.

Table 27: Number of vessels and employees registered at other Dutch harbours fishing in the Wadden Sea

Other Cockle/Cockle Vessels fishing at the Wadden Sea

Ships Jobs

Yerseke 41 136 Bruinisse 24 66 Zierikzee 9 27 Oeverig Zeeland 3 12

Prognos AG 2004 according to LEI: Regionaal-economisch belang van de Waddenzeevis-serij, Den Haag 2003.

In Germany and Denmark mussel and cockle fishery is a small sector with only 49 respectively 36 employees. The catches of the German and Danish fleet are sold both directly in the region, e.g. at the biggest German processor “Royal Frisk” in Emmelsbühl and at Dutch auctions. In the German Wadden Sea, only mussel fish-ery is allowed. Due to national restrictions fishery for razor shells and cockles is totally prohibited. Because of huge stocks of razor shells and cockles the German fishermen see a large unused eco-nomic potential. On the other hand facing the strong endeavours

for nature protection there is but little chance of reducing those re-strictions.

Figure 18: Catches of mussels and cockles in the Wadden Sea by country (10y-Average 1991-2000)

28.169

60.927

5.212

0 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 70.000

German WSR **

Dutch WSR

Danish WSR *

Landings (tons)Catches (tons, wet weight)

Prognos AG 2004 according to Ministeriet for Fodevarer, Landbrug og Fiskeri: Fiskeristatistik Arbog 2002; Kleine Hochsee- und Küstenfischerei Schleswig Holsteins im Jahre 2001, Jahresbericht des Amtes für ländliche Räume Kiel; Die Kleine Hochsee- und Küstenfischerei Niedersachsens und Bremens 2001, Jahresbericht des Staatlichen Fischereiamtes Bremerhaven. ** Average 1998-2001; Landings only mussels, Turnover Mussel and Cockle Fishery

Mussels and cockles achieve relatively high and stable prices. The sub-sector therefore accounts for 2/3 of the turnover of the cutter and coastal fishery in the Dutch Wadden Sea Region. Because of the stable economic perspective the Dutch mussel fishery is one of the few fishery sectors exhibiting a slight increase in employment between 1990 (183 empl.) and 2000 (217 empl.).

Like shrimp fishery the mussel and cockle fishery is strongly de-pendent on natural conditions. Therefore the catches of mussels in the region show a high volatility. Cold winters allow higher catches; warm winters lead to lower catches. The last two winters were relatively warm leading to a significant decrease in catches in 2002 and 2003. Some biologists fear a strong effect of climate change on the mussel and cockle fishery.

Figure 19: Landings of blue mussels in the Wadden Sea 1980-2000 (in tons)

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Land

ings

(ton

s)

Dutch Wadden SeaGermany WS Lower SaxonyGerman WS Schleswig-HolsteinDanish Wadden Sea

Technological trends

Innovation and technological progress in the fishery sector comes primarily from modernization of the fleets. But because of the limitation of catches the modernization will not raise the market share or the employment of the sector, but only stabilize the in-come of the fishermen. The evolution in shipbuilding tends to make the individual vessels more and more flexible regarding catching methods and species.

Fishermen complain that the EU-restrictions concerning the re-sale of old vessels hamper the financing of new ships and there-fore the modernization of the fleets.

Marine aquaculture is one of the fast growing sectors in the inter-national fishery industry. Mussel farming dominates marine aqua-culture in Germany and the Netherlands. The most important product is the blue mussel. The European commission launched an action plan with a strategy for the sustainable development of European aquaculture. This strategy is designed to strengthen the role of aquaculture in providing jobs and in supplying quality fish-ery products in a way that does not harm the environment.

Current market trends

The most important market trends on the demand and the supply side of fish and seafood are described in the following:

Consumption of fish develops positively in the long-term trend. Per capita consumption of fish products is rising in the long run: in Germany for example it was around 13.2 and 14.3 kilos per head within the last few years (average: 14.1 kilos) (for comparison purposes 1954: 11 kilos:)

Figure 20: Development of per-capita consumption of crustaceans and molluscs in Germany 1978-2000

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

kg p

er c

apita

1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Prognos AG 2004 according to BBE-Branchenreport Fisch 2002 according to Jahresbericht über die deutsche Fischwirtschaft, verschiedene Jahrgänge

Fish consumption in general is subject to strong variations. Po-litical conditions, among other things quota regulations, price rises, reports about marine pollution, harmful substances in fish, make the fish markets of Germany an unstable terrain. However, according to Figure 20 also the market trend for crustaceans and molluscs is positive and the demand will in-crease in a long-term view.

Domestic annual consumption of fish in Germany is approx. 1.2 million tons (of this 76% salt-water fish, 15.5% freshwater fish, 8.8% crustaceans and molluscs). Quantitatively, the Wad-den Sea fishing plays a relatively insignificant role for the sup-ply for the all-German market. However, it has a considerable role for the supply for local markets, especially regarding cer-tain species like crangon crangon shrimps.

Market chances for mussels are strongly dependent on pro-duction conditions, because the whole annual production is completely sold. The gap between domestic production and consumption is covered with imported goods, particularly from Denmark. Thus, there is no substitution of domestic produc-tion, but only an adjustment of the higher demand.

Optimistic market trends: The market for crustaceans and molluscs is enormously dynamic (visible e.g. by the strongly growing imports from Eastern Asia, China, Vietnam, Bangla-desh etc.). At present there is a small setback in economic ac-tivity, probably relating to cyclical market conditions. All in all seafood consumption will increase, last but not least due to the continuous wellness wave.

Important markets: Belgium is one of the most important mar-kets for crustaceans and molluscs. Also France is an important market: North Sea shrimps are a specialty in France; the French have moreover a high willingness to pay high prices for fish and seafood. It is also this willingness to pay, which makes the export of relatively expensive North Sea products very difficult to South or East European countries for example.

The wellness/organic trend offers a great opportunity for the products of the Wadden Sea Region. North Sea shrimps excel in taste and in quality. From the sustainability point of view there is no comparison with shrimps from Eastern Asia, deep-sea shrimps or aquaculture shrimps. Nevertheless it is neces-sary to act with caution: From the organic point of view proc-essing in Morocco is very problematic. However, fish per se is organic: no interference in breeding, perfect "free range atti-tude", no determination of feeding stuffs. There are however still gaps with regulations: Aquaculture fish is partially mar-keted as organic fish, which often is problematic (feeding with fish meal, high stocking rate, medicines, etc.).

There is a regional competitive advantage, but however, it is still under-exploited. Another problem of marketing and com-munication: the unique product "North Sea shrimps" is nation-wide still marketed too badly; the advantages of the image "or-ganic food from the region" and the unique taste of the product should be emphasised and promoted. In addition a further problem is the domestic customers lack of willingness to pay. A better marketing of the strengths of the products could raise the willingness to pay.

In general the solidly increasing imports of shrimps from East-ern Asia do not pose a threat for Wadden Sea shrimp fisheries, only perhaps in case of deep sea shrimps. On the German market international suppliers rather mutually put themselves out of business.

Distribution and Marketing

Generally, Dutch wholesalers dominate the market for shrimps. About 10% of the shrimps caught by German vessels are sold un-peeled within the region, less than 10% are peeled in Germany and more than 80% are peeled and sold via Dutch companies. Danish Fishermen distribute and process nearly 100% via Dutch wholesalers and the Dutch catches are distributed to 90% by the marketleaders. At present shrimp fishery is involved in heavy problems with the cartel authorities, which might have several effects on the structure of sales and distribution. (See explanations above)

Also the sales of mussels are mainly run in the Netherlands, mostly by auctions in Yerseke aside from the modern processing plant of Royal Frisk at Emmelsbühl/Germany. There are no more auctions for shrimps and mussels in Germany.

Generally, fish and seafood have following market-shares in retail: 32% frozen fish, 29% tinned fish and marinade, 12% fresh fish, 11% crustaceans and molluscs. This ratio has remained relatively stable for years. 45% of the fish sales of the retail trade are ac-counted for by discounters. Only 7% of the quantity (11% of the value) is allocated in the specialized trade of fish. It is expected that the market share of discounters will continue to rise.

In the following we want to give some examples of marketing en-deavours which might give new market impulses:

Several attempts are being made to establish a proper brand awareness for Wadden Sea products. At this year's fishery fair in Bremerhaven for instance there was an attempt to introduce an own brand "Fisher's Premium" for shrimps and mussels in order to distribute these by the specialized trade. But at present the diffi-culty remains in convincing the primarily price-oriented consumers. Last but not least there is a further obstacle to stabilization of the specialized fish trade, respectively to approach a higher willing-ness to pay of the consumers: Quality checks and store checks show a high quality of fish products sold via discounters.

An increase of investments in fish bars could support sales of re-gional products and also reduce the “access-problem” of many consumers (e.g. lack of knowledge on preparation of fish).

A project that in the past already once was initiated to strengthen the connection between fishery and tourism, the "Route of North Sea " or "Route of the North Sea shrimps" could be reacti-vated (see for example the successful route of industrial heritage at the Ruhr, or the local event “Mosseldag Yerseke”). Probably such a strategy could open new possibilities for direct selling of catches like "on board sales". Currently the coastal and cutter fish-

ery mostly sells directly to the trade by cutter cooperatives (e.g. cutter cooperative Cuxhaven).

Outlook

The Outlook for the fishery-sector mainly depends on three exter-nal factors:

1) The Common Fisheries Policy of the EU,

2) The national policies for the Wadden Sea Region and

3) The development of the food markets for fish and sea-food.

1) Common Fisheries Policy: The Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) is mainly relevant for the high-sea fishery. The viscious cir-cle of over fishing and declining stocks in recent years showed that the CFP was not effective enough to conserve fish stocks, protect the marine environment and to ensure the economic viability of the European fleets. In December 2002 the Council of Fisheries Minis-ters agreed on the first package of reform measures to reach a sustainable fishery management and announced that more pro-posals for the reform will follow. The catches in the north-east At-lantic in the last 30 years showed a pronounced volatility. Aggra-vated by short-term TAC quotas the uncertainty of planning was a significant risk for the fishermen. The new regulations give the chance to reduce overcapacities and overfishing, to lower the vola-tility and to allow better planning. The main changes include:

A long-term approach, instead of annual short-term meas-ures and regulations;

A new policy for the fleets: a simpler fleet policy that puts re-sponsibility for matching fishing capacity to fishing possibilities with the member states;

A phasing out of public aid to private investors to help them renew or modernise fishing vessels;

A better application of the existing rules and a strengthening of control and sanctions throughout the EU;

Stakeholders' involvement by regional advisory councils;

In contrast to the position of EU officials, representatives of the Wadden Sea Region fisheries doubt that the EU rules and sanc-tions will be sufficient for a sustainable stock management. In addi-tion, it is especially the EU-fleet policy and the phasing out of fi-nancial aid for modernisation that is the object of criticism.

2) National policies: From a national perspective competitive land use and environmental issues are the main factors. Off-shore wind farms, shipping industry and nature reserves threaten the fishing grounds and the public interest is more and more sensi-tised to environmental problems in the Wadden Sea Region. Es-pecially in Germany and in the Netherlands the national govern-ments are intensifying their efforts to reach a sustainable man-agement of the natural resources of the Wadden Sea and to keep the Wadden Sea as a unique natural reserve. Strong nature protection regulations or declining fishing grounds because of enlargement of off limit-areas could make Wadden Sea fishing unprofitable. On the other hand the national governments underline that they want to preserve and strengthen the eco-nomic ground for a vital Wadden Sea fishery. The conservation of economically efficient and ecologically sustainable fishery will remain the most important challenge to be solved in the future.

Another important fact, which is also pointed out by the govern-ments, is that the fishery, especially the cutter and costal fishery, itself is a characteristic element of the region and an important factor for tourist attraction. Tourism means also an economical chance for the fishermen in the region. For example an opportunity for diversification lies in a better cooperation within the tourism fa-cilities and programmes of the region. Tourism can also be an im-portant support for a nation-wide strategy to establish local prod-ucts in a premium segment.

3) Markets for fish and seafood: The major societal and demo-graphic trends will influence the food markets in the future:

The per-capita consumption of fish products in Wadden Sea countries will increase in a long-term view. Currently fish con-sumption in Germany is on a relatively low level in comparison with the European average. According to a projection of FAO the demand for fish in Western Europe will face a fast increase of 36% between 1995 and 2030. In 2030, per head consump-tion will reach 30.1 kg, which is significantly above the current average of comparable countries.15 According to this scenario in Wadden Sea countries the fish consumption will increase by about an annual 0.2 kg per head.16

Decline of population – in the long-term (beginning at the end of this decade and accelerating from 2020 on) the population in the Wadden Sea area and in western industrial countries (like

15 DK. 23.5 kg /head/year, GER: 12.7 kg, NL: 15.1 kg. Source: EU-Commission facts and figures on the CFP, 2001. 16 According to Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Historical consumption and future demand for

Fish and Fishery products: Exploratory Calcultions for the Years 2015/2030, 1999

Germany) will decline due to the further decrease of birth rates and movement of labour.

The increasing population share of older people and shrinking household sizes - The number and share of older people will increase rapidly in following years. Caused by aging population the consumer habits and the amount of food con-sumption will change significantly. A rising share of older people, decreasing birth rates and a general trend of individualization will further lower household sizes and accelerate the increasing demand for convenience products and out-of-house consumption.

Figure 21: Polarisation by price segments in consumer markets (referring to fish and foodstuffs)

2431 34

49 34 30

2735 36

45- 50

23

10- 2049

35- 4028

0

20

40

60

80

100

1973 1981 1986 1990 2010

high-price segment

medium-price segment

low-price segment

Prognos AG 2004 according to B.A.T Institut für Freizeitforschung; BBE-Prognose

The polarisation of the society and consumer markets – meaning an increasing number of high-earning and highly edu-cated people (boosted by the “inherit“ generation) and at the same time an increasing number of poor people. The polariza-tion of the society will lead to simultaneous polarisation of the food markets. The bipolar development in the food sector means a growth of fast food and convenience products (addi-tionally pushed by shrinking household sizes) and low-price orientation. Discounters will continuously gain market shares on the distribution side. But on the other hand, a quality and premium orientation and a rising demand for luxury products, bio-products and niche products will lead to a simultaneous growth of the high-quality sector, distributed mainly by special-ised retailers (see Figure 21). The polarisation of consumer markets is accompanied by increasing demand for sustainable and ecological products, additionally pushed by a series of food-crises in recent years (BSE, swine fever, etc.).

Studies, like those of Cofad17, and our own expert interviews con-firm that the greatest threats arise from the competitive exploitation of the sea in connection with the unsecured rights position of the fishery sector and not from an uncertain stock development or the markets. Summarizing the following perspectives exist for the fish-ery sector in the Wadden Sea Region:

New resources for fisheries are hard to develop. Against this the mussel fishing still has great economic potential. This ap-plies both to the intensification of the mussel fishing and the opening up of types not used till now.

Better penetration of national markets: Labelling and branding of the regional products (differentia-tion strategy) could be a way to enhance the position of the Wadden Sea-products on the national markets for seafood. But a high-quality strategy or an "ECO"strategy might need new forms of cooperation, new forms of distribution and new means of marketing and communication. Furthermore, the demand for seafood can be increased by a better counselling regarding quality, preparation, etc. The mar-ket for fish and seafood faces the traditional situation that a large number of people do not buy fish or fish products (for ex-ample, between 5% and 10% of German population avoid fish consumption). Developing the market of non-consumers of fish-products, especially in Germany, could be a challenge for fishery in Wadden Sea Area.

At present the fishery sector is realising a rather low share of the creation of added value of the fish and shrimps products. It seems absolutely possible to increase this share. To change this the marketing could be improved by producer and market-ing organisations. An increased integration of primary products and retail trade in the form of narrow contractual relationships should be reconsidered.

The production of fish products by the aquaculture industry has increased significantly over the past decade. In 1999, about 31% (DK: 24%, GER: 24%, NL: 20%) of the total value of the fishery production in the European Union was produced by the aquaculture industry. Projections of world fishery pro-duction up to 2010 by FAO range between 107 and 144 mill. tons. Most of the worldwide increase in fish production is ex-pected to come from aquaculture, which is growing rapidly. By 2010 probably about 1/3 up to 50% of total worldwide landings

17 Cofad, Die Küstenfischerei in Niedersachsen. Stand und Perspektiven. Studie im Auftrag des Niedersächsischen

Ministeriums für den ländlichen Raum, Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Verbraucherschutz, 2004

will be produced by aquaculture.18 There is perhaps a chance for the Wadden Sea Region to join this growing market if qual-ity requirements can be met and a cannibalisation of a region’s quality strategy can be avoided. However, in practice so far this hope has not been fulfilled due to a lack of space, there are few possibilities for growth in this respect.

Fishery and the fish-processing industry should be prepared for the polarisation of consumer markets. They have to focus either on the low price segment or/and on the high price seg-ment of the fish and seafood markets; the segment of medium price species will be displaced in the future. In accordance with a polarisation of price segments the polarisation of distribu-tion will follow. Fisheries will more and more sell either frozen fish for food processing, or fresh fish for regional markets or markets for high-quality products. The cutter and coastal fish-ery in the Wadden Sea has established a good starting point due to their specialization on high-priced species.

There is a positive economic perspective for the inshore fish-ery. This testimony is based firstly on a “learning” fishery pol-icy, which will achieve a sustainable and economically stable Wadden Sea fishery in the future, and secondly on a stable demand side for fish and seafood.

The Wadden Sea cutter and coastal fishery threatens to lose fishing grounds progressively to other ways of utilisation. To protect fishing grounds these could be specified, for example by planning targets corresponding to regional planning princi-ples.

18 According to FAO, http://www.fao.org/fi/highligh/2010.asp

Figure 22: Strength and weakness of fishery sector

Strengths

An inherent part of the regional economy and regional culture

Ongoing high fish stock Interrelationship with tourism Operating results comparatively fa-

vourably Growing niches for high-quality and

bio-products Price increases due to further market

segmentation, e.g. organic or eco-labelling

The strong focus on rural develop-ment

Increasing European and world-wide demand for fish and seafood

Additional opportunities in the aqua-culture industry

Weaknesses Sector is driven by the oligopolistic

competition of the European retail sec-tor.

Ageing fleets Low market power of the fishermen

because of insufficient level of organi-sation

High dependency on quota system and EU/national regulations

Difficulties recruiting fishermen Low level of legal security for fishing

grounds

Prognos AG 2004

4. Perspectives in industry sectors and branches

4.1 Overview of industrial sectors

The industrial sector is extremely diverse and includes all eco-nomic activities concerned with the manufacture, extraction and processing of raw materials, or construction. In accordance with the delimitation by official statistics, the term ‘production industries’ comprises the sectors mining and quarrying, manufacturing, en-ergy supply and construction. The classification of the manufactur-ing industry into consumer goods (like food products) and invest-ment goods (like machines) is typical.19

The industrial sector has become less important in the wake of the structural change of the last decades, but it is still of substantial importance for the Wadden Sea Region. In 2000 about every fourth person is employed in the industrial sector. Actually the highest share of industrial employment is in the Danish Wadden Sea Region (27.5% see Figure 23). Although manufacturing now accounts for little over one fourth of total national output (GDP) and a similar share of total employment, many economists argue that the economic health of manufacturing has important implica-tions for other industries. Manufacturing is not an island. If indus-trial production falls and thousands of jobs are shed, this has sig-nificant ripple effects through related service industries. The multi-plier effects of a rise or fall in industrial production are important. Accelerated by outsourcing processes many service sector jobs depend on manufacturing industries – there are close linkages be-tween the sectors (e.g. business services, logistics, R&D etc.).

There are some differences between the economic significance of the industry sector of the Wadden Sea sub-regions and other parts of their countries. The Dutch and Danish sub-regions are much more strongly specialised in industry20, whereas the industrial em-ployment share (24%) of the German Wadden Sea Region is sig-nificantly lower than the national reference value (29%).

19 In this chapter the sub-sector construction industry is not considered for sector-specific analysis in chapter 4.2 et seq. 20 The employment share in Dutch and Danish Wadden Sea Region is 2 resp. 4 percent points higher than the ratio of

Denmark and the Netherlands.

Figure 23: Share of industry employment 2000

24,1

24,5

27,5

29,1

22,4

23,6

0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0

German Waddensea-region

Dutch Waddensea-region

Danish Waddensea-region

Waddensea respective country

Prognos AG 2004 according to official national statistics. Note: including construction and utilities.

During the nineties the regional industry sector in Denmark and Netherlands developed more favourably than in the respective countries (Dutch Wadden Sea Region: 0.3% p.a.; Danish 0.6% p.a. see Figure 24). In contrast to this the German Wadden Sea Region experienced a severe cut of employment. The employment in industry sectors (including utilities and construction) decreased by approx -1.1% p.a.. This negative development and strong proc-ess of de-industrialisation indicates the structurally weak situation of the German Wadden Sea Region, especially because of the cri-sis with the shipyards.

Figure 24: Development of employment in industry sectors during the nineties

0,3

0,6

-0,6

0,0 0,0

-1,1

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

Germany Netherlands Denmark

chan

ge o

f ind

ustr

y em

ploy

men

t in

90 th

in %

p.a

.

Waddensea-region respective country

Prognos AG 2004 according to official national statistics. Note: including utility and construc-tion.

The industry sector of the Wadden Sea Region can be classified by significance of employment into a total of nine different main categories of sub-sectors distinguishing separate product or mate-rial categories. In general, three main industrial sectors have a key role for the economy and labour market of the Wadden Sea Re-gion.

The metal and engineering industry is the most important sector (see Figure 25 approx. 40,500 employees resp. 20% labour force in industry) followed by the food industry (36,700 employees resp. 18%) and the chemical industry (23,400 employees resp. 12%). These three key sectors represent two thirds of the indus-trial labour force in the Wadden Sea Region. Because of this high regional relevance in economic terms the industrial sub-sectors basic metal, food industry and chemicals are regarded in more de-tail in the following chapters.

Figure 25: Distribution of industry (including utility) employees by sectors 2000

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

textile 1.100 1.000 900 3.000wood, furniture 5.000 3.500 8.500utilities 3.400 2.500 700 6.600vehicle 5.300 13.600 18.900paper, publishing 9.200 7.600 16.800electronics 6.500 10.400 16.900chemicals 6.200 15.500 1.700 23.400food 13.700 19.000 4.000 36.700metal and engineering 17.100 16.300 7.100 40.500

Dutch WSR German WSR Danish WSR total WSR

62.500 121.000 18.000 201.500number of industry employeeswithout construction

Prognos AG 2004 according to official national statistics. Own classification of sectors by Prognos based on the data and industrial classification. Note: The German statistic of indus-try doesn't report data everywhere for reasons of data protection on regional level of the federal states.

The remaining 50% of industrial employment in the Wadden Sea Region comprises other sub-sectors, like automotives (share of in-dustry jobs in WSR 9%), manufacturing of electronics (8%), paper and publishing (10%), wood and furniture (4%) and textiles and leather (2%). These sub-sectors are not regarded in the following chapters, with the exception of the utility sector (3%) because of its relevance for other industry sectors (e.g. chemical industry).

4.2 Metal industry and engineering


About 40,500 employees are working in metal sectors; therefore it is the largest in-dustry sector in the Wadden Sea Region.

Pricing pressure and import competition led to a significant reduction of jobs in Germany, about 9% of the metal jobs will be cut by 2020.

Key clients of metal industry are aircraft, vehicles, shipbuilding and wind energy.

Advantages of location: close supply chains to industrial groups in automotives, electronics, shipping and aircraft, labour costs below the respective national average, medium-sized enterprises

Good perspectives in technology intensive sub-sectors and products, thus expectation of higher growth rates in engineering than in basic metal sector

Threats: Metal loses in the materials competition against plastics and other materi-als, competition and concentration processes will increase particularly by EU enlarge-ment

Branch profile

A broadly varied product range and simultaneously a high degree of specialization characterise this industry. The metal sector in-cludes following sub-sectors: engineering21, metal processing and production of metal products22. The sub-sectors vehicle construction, shipbuilding as well as aircraft construction do not belong to basic metal. These sub-sectors are subsumed in the sector vehicle construction. However the metal industry is an im-portant supply sector for the vehicle construction with key compa-nies like Volkswagen, EADS, Thyssen Nordseewerke or Lloyd shipyard in the Wadden Sea Region. These companies are part of the vehicle sub-sector and do not belong to metal industry and en-gineering.

The enterprises of the metal sector produce predominantly capital goods (steel and lightweight metal construction, boiler and vessel construction, plumbing construction), consumer goods for industry

21 According to offical statistic classification (WZ 93) engine construction includes following scopes: motor construction,

pumps, lifting ramps, drive systems, agriculture machinery, machine tools, construction machines and processing ma-chines for industry.

22 According to offical statistic classification (WZ 93) metal processing and production of metal products includes follow-ing scopes: producing and processing of metals like steel, aluminium, light metal etc., surface technology, tools, refrig-eration, tubes and boxes.

(tools) and the final consumer (locks, fittings etc.) or are active as suppliers of components and individual parts for the construction of vehicles and electro-technology, mechanical engineering (screws, drawn components, pressed parts and punching), the food industry (metal packing) or the construction sector.

In contrast to other industry sectors, like the chemical industry, the metal industry in the Wadden Sea Region is small and medium-sized. Large enterprises with more than 250 employees are rarely represented in the Wadden Sea Region. Despite the SME-structure23 and integration in regional supply chains, export rates are above average for the industry sector overall.24

Sector development

In recent years the industry performed comparatively well, the em-ployment outlook is stable, while the manufacturing sector overall experienced a decrease in employment. In the Wadden Sea Re-gion the employment even expanded during the 90s: The Nether-lands (31%), Denmark (6%).

This industry depends strongly on the investments of their custom-ers in plants and buildings, whereby the domestic demand out-weighs. Stabilizing effects are that this industry profits both in in-vestment-near as well as in consumer-near production segments and from the fact that it is to a substantial extent replacement de-mand and not only new demand. Therefore the sector profits for example from an increase in building activity, independent of whether the increased building activity takes place in a new build-ing or old building, modernization or reconstruction.

Table 28: Development of sector-specific employment in the metal industry during the nineties

Metal industry [number of jobs] 1990 2000 Change in % p.a. Danish Wadden Sea [1993] 6,500 7,100 1.1

German Wadden Sea [1998] 16,000 16,300 0.7

Dutch Wadden Sea [1990] 14,500 17,100 1.7

Prognos AG 2004 according to official national statistics. The change of industrial employ-ment in German Wadden Sea Region refers to the period 1998-2000. A long-term perspec-tive, which is not possible for the German Wadden Sea due to changing statistic classifica-tion during 90ies, would indicate more consistent development of sector-specific employ-ment.

23 SME – Small and medium sized enterprises. 24 According to Prognos AG, Deutschland Report 2002. For example in German metal industry and egineering about

50% of turnover had been generated by exports (2001).

During the nineties the metal industry in Wadden Sea Region de-veloped differently (see Table 28). The Dutch and Danish metal industry could increase the employment by about 1.1% resp. 1.7% per year.

In the German Wadden Sea Region the employment grew more slowly than in Denmark or the Netherlands (0.7% p.a.). In particu-lar the supply sector in the automobile industry was affected by lean production developments. Meanwhile these enterprises sup-ply more rarely the final product manufacturer, but the preliminary system and component suppliers.


Product innovations within the fields of equipment construction like steel, lightweight materials, boiler and tank construction aim at en-ergy saving and low environmental impact (heaters, steam genera-tors), at increased security (tank, vessel), at optimal control, auto-matic regulation, remote control and teleguidance (telemetric, cross-linking). Concerning production trends we expect technically cost-minimal finishing techniques, the increased use of CNC tech-niques, new machining processes (lasers, plasma technology), the use of new materials, continuation of non-destructive material test-ing and the improvement of the information and communication technologies not only in the range of the process-technical infor-mation, but also within the range of enterprise communication (Intranet, Internet).

Nevertheless, the use of new materials and progress in materials application technology, the surface technique, the tribology, but also modern processing methods are critical for the industry as re-sult of substantial competitive pressure exercised by the plastics processing sector, which increasingly succeeds in offering better plastics with metal-similar surfaces.

Although often described as "old economy" activity, the metal and engineering sector has continued to gain momentum from the de-velopment and diffusion of microelectronics to mechanical sys-tems, the use of optics, sensor and laser technologies. Espe-cially the lightweight construction in order to reduce materials weight, the miniaturisation (nanotechnology) and the automating (robotics and linkage with IT-Systems) are innovation trends for the future. Materials science is interdisciplinary and will specialise on following issues:

New production engineering (computer systems, measuring sensors, physical models and methods of artificial intelligence.)

Metallurgical research, improve around new warmth cycles for the conception of products and particularly vehicles (among others due to environmental protection regulations).

Ultra light and high-quality construction materials made of re-newable primary products are used for the first time in series track vehicles.

The material science as cross-section technology offers the indus-trial sector know-how, which is indispensable for a competitive ad-vantage in innovation-orientated markets. The new materials are regarded as one of the worldwide growth markets in future. How-ever, the further development of new materials is at present still very science oriented. Only high efforts in scientific research will ensure a competition advantage in the Wadden Sea Region.

Regional concentration and specialisation

The Dutch (ratio: 186, 100=national level, see Figure 26) and Danish (ratio: 122) regions are strongly specialised in metals. Both Wadden Sea Regions have specialisation degrees (ratio of localisation) significantly above the national average. In contrast to Germany the German Wadden Sea Region (ratio: 61) is less specialised in metal products. Reason for this is among other things, the regional concentration of clients in the metal industry (vehicles, electronics, construction, engine construction) is to a high extent outside the German Wadden Sea Region (e.g. South Germany, North Rhine-Westphalia).

Figure 26: Specialisation on metal industry in WSR in contrast to respective countries

Localisation of basic metal in the Waddensea-Region

51

122

165

0 100 200

German Waddensea

Danish Waddensea

Dutch Waddensea

ratio of regional to national sector specific employment share


The Danish Wadden Sea Region is the most specialised in metal industry. The share of sector-specific employment in the region is 1.2 times higher than in Denmark. About 7,000 em-ployees work in the metal industry of the Danish Wadden Sea Region, mainly around Esbjerg (4,500 jobs). Most of these

employees and companies around Esbjerg and Ribe are spe-cialised in technical engineering for oil companies (like Mærsk Oil and Gas, Amerada Hess and Statoil), which use the Danish Wadden Sea Region as a base for their offshore activi-ties. Furthermore, the construction sector of offshore wind tur-bines is developing very dynamically.

The Dutch sub-regions Groningen, Fryslân and Kop van Noord-Holland also exhibit a strong specialisation in metal in-dustry. About 17,000 metal jobs stem from the Dutch Wadden Sea Region, which represents half of all employment in the metal sector in WSR. Traditionally the Northern Dutch small-sized industry has specialised in stainless steels. In Fryslân, a strong sub-sector for the yacht-building industry has developed over the years. Concentrations of employment and enterprises can be found around the regional centres of Groningen and Leeuwarden.

Table 29: Range of key-companies of basis metal sector

Region Name of company Branch / products EmployeesPinneberg Autoliv GmbH Automotive safety products 1,196 Esbjerg C. W. Obel Maritime A/S Manufacture of metal products 900 Wilhelmshaven Deutsche Grove GmbH Machinery, vehicle-crane 800 Tonder Hydro Aluminium Precision Tubing Tubes and rods of aluminium 400 Esbjerg Babcock & Wilcox Vølund ApS Manufacture of steam generators 375 Aurich Enercon GmbH Machinery, wind energy 200

Esbjerg KJ Maskinfabriken A/S Manufacturing of lifting/handling equipment 200

Prognos AG 2004 according to several sources. The regional key-accounts (like Volks-wagen, and several shipyards) are important clients of the basic metal and engineering sec-tor, but they do not belong to the sector. Therefore these companies are not listed in this ta-ble.

In the German Wadden Sea Region a high share of metal businesses is located in Pinneberg and Steinburg, where 6,000 employees in total (14% of sector specific labour force) are concentrated. The metal industry in these sub-regions is heterogeneous and has a supply function for industrial clients in aircraft services, energy, shipbuilding, microelectronics and medical technology. Around Itzehoe a small high-techcluster has specialised in microelectronics and created about 600 jobs.25 A second concentration of metal industry in the German Wadden Sea Region is located in Ostfriesland (Emden, Aurich). These districts form a metal cluster by supplying ship-building, automotive engineering and wind energy industry.

25 Main innovative actors are: Fraunhofer Institut für Siliziumtechnologie (ISiT), Vishay, SMI (Philips) and the Innovation

Centre Itzehoe (IZET)

About 3,000 employees in metal industry are supporting the vehicle industry in Emden (Volkswagen). Another remarkable sub-sector of engineering is military technology. This technol-ogy is linked to the aircraft and shipbuilding industry of the re-gion.

Outlook

We expect that the production of basic metal will develop parallel to the entire manufacturing sector. However, this will only be pos-sible with rising research and development and/or innovation ex-penditures. More strongly than the metal production sector this in-dustry will survive by innovative product ideas and new product and process developments. The sector also offers chances for ex-isting market and customer-oriented enterprises, in addition, for start-ups and young entrepreneurs. A turnover growth in real terms of 2.2% per year is to be expected from 2002 to 2020, the em-ployment will decrease by 0.4% per year, which is below average for the manufacturing sector. In comparison to nationwide devel-opments, for the Wadden Sea Region we expect a somewhat weaker turnover growth and/or a reduction of about 4,300 jobs. Particular in German and Dutch Wadden Sea Regions the highest reduction of jobs will be expected (-0.8% resp. -0.9% p.a.). In con-trast to basic metal, the segment of engineering (engines, ma-chine tools and machine for industrial processing) has better growth perspectives. Stimulated by a head start in innovative fields (i.e. wind energy, refrigeration), the engine construction in Wadden Sea area could generate new revenue in foreign markets (esp. China).

Table 30: Forecast of sector-specific GDP and employment in metal industry until 2020

Metal industry Jobs 2000 Jobs 2010 Jobs 2020Change jobs in

% p.a. Change GDP in

% p.a. Danish Wadden Sea 7,100 6,500 6,000 -0.9 2.4

German Wadden Sea 16,300 15,000 13,900 -0.8 1.7

Dutch Wadden Sea 17,100 16,700 16,300 -0.3 1.2

Prognos AG 2004, Prognos World Report 2002

Although the domestic market dominates the basic metal sector (in some parts the enterprises are even exclusively regionally ori-ented) the competition intensity has increased clearly in the recent past. This has several reasons: On the one hand bulk purchasers (e.g. in the construction of vehicles or building markets) exercise substantial pricing pressure on the domestic suppliers, on the other hand the import pressure by cheap offers of foreign produc-ers is partly ruinous, in addition, of German producers with foreign production locations as well as by plagiarisms. Beyond that, the re-location abroad of manufacturing plants of important producers re-

duces the demand for supplies. Furthermore due to the improved product qualities replacement demand declines. Therefore, com-petition and concentration processes in the industry will increase.

Increasingly the industry is concentrating on niche markets and moving into higher value quality products and services with larger profit margins. The increased demand for higher efficiency in downstream industries and growing environmental concerns is stimulating companies to direct more efforts towards in-house R&D, design and innovation. Technical know-how and high prod-uct quality are enhancing the core competences of the sector and creating a demand for higher workforce skills. The industry is also being required to forge ever closer links with its clients and cus-tomers within formal supply chain networks and mutual depend-ency between companies at all levels of the supply chain is in-creasing.

The sector will especially benefit from the growing demand for more sophisticated environmental technologies, the use of new materials and an increasing tendency away from the supply of stand-alone machines towards integrated plant and machinery systems. The latter, incorporating high levels of service support for customers in the form of consultancy, training, maintenance and specific software, has extended the range of activity undertaken by many mechanical engineering companies. It has refocused the sector’s business towards providing more tailor-made solutions to individual customer requirements and endeavouring to add greater value to their products and services. Many manufacturers within the sector have moved into highly specialised niche markets serv-ing the needs of narrowly defined downstream industries. Through such strategies, even relatively small enterprises can often achieve international repute.

One of the main location advantages of the Wadden Sea Region are moderate labour costs in relation to the respective countries, runs the risk of losing attractiveness as result of EU enlargement and globalisation. This will be in particular a risk for the range of low-tech products in the basic metal segment. Due to this risk it is very important for the metal and engineering sector in the Wadden Sea Region to enter new markets, use and develop innovative products and to enlarge their head start in the field of innovative products, like microelectronics, wind energy generation, medical technology, etc. In a long-term view the manufacturers of quality high-price goods have good market opportunities, because of their benefit of a head start in technology. These manufacturers benefit from the technical refitting of plants. For example the suppliers of wind power plants have an international technology head start due to the strong expansion of wind energy generation in the Wadden Sea Region.

Figure 27: Strength and weakness of metal industry

Strengths

Seen from an international point of view high quality reputation of the manu-facturers, especially in Germany

Successful speciality manufacturers with innovative products (wind energy generation)

Key customers like Volkswagen, EADS, Thyssen Nordseewerke or Lloyd shipyard in the Wadden Sea Region

Good perspectives in technology inten-sive sub-sectors and products higher growth in engineering than in basic metal

The material science as cross-section technology offers the industrial sector know-how, which is indispensable for a competitive advantage in innovation-orientated markets.

The increased demand for higher effi-ciency in downstream industries and growing environmental concerns is stimulating companies to direct more efforts towards in-house R&D, design and innovation.

The sector will especially benefit from the growing demand for more sophisti-cated environmental technologies, the use of new materials and an in-creasing tendency away from the supply of stand-alone machines towards inte-grated plant and machinery systems.

Weaknesses

Metal as loser of the material competi-tion

Generally, low competitiveness within technology-poor product ranges

Development of new materials is at pre-sent very science driven encountering relatively low scientitific resources in the region

Trend of relocation abroad of manu-facturing plants of the sector itself and important customers (EU-Enlargement).

Due to the improved product qualities replacement demand declines

Increasing international competition will accelerate concentration processes in the industry

Prognos AG 2004

4.3 Food industry


With 37,000 employees the second most important industrial sector, reduction of 12% of jobs expected by 2020.

The German WSR has specialised strongly in the food industry (ratio 176, 100=national level). The food industry in the German part represents the largest sector (19,000 jobs).

Growth basically will be in new foreign markets like Eastern Europe and new seg-ments. Two main opposed trends can be identified: convenience food and organic food.

Basic product groups for the food industry are dairy products, fish, frozen food, tea and coffee with high concentration on domestic markets.

Advantages of location: high concentration of agriculture and fishery, closeness to ports for imports and exports, lower labour costs in contrast to respective countries

Threats for sector specific development: number of customers stagnates in WSR up to 2020, new turnover only in foreign markets or new high-quality products, spe-cialisation in fish and seafood products bears the risk of over exploitation.

Branch profile

The food processing industry occupies a powerful position within the food chain, linking primary producers with retailers and final consumers. The economic role of the industry is basically that of adding value to agricultural produce and other material ingredients through the application of various processing and packaging tech-niques and technologies in order to convert these ingredients into finished consumer-ready products or into intermediate products used in further processing and non-food industrial activities. Virtu-ally all-agricultural commodities are subject to some degree of processing before reaching their final use. The industry is typically divided into numerous sub-sectors based mainly on the nature of the commodity product, e.g. the production, processing and pre-serving of meat and meat products; processing and preserving of fruit and vegetables; manufacture of dairy products; bakery prod-ucts, sweets, animal foods, etc.

The supply chains within the food industry are generally focused on freshness and behaviour patterns of regional and domestic consumption. Main markets for food industry in Wadden Sea Re-gions are the highly populated conurbations of Hamburg, Rhine-Ruhr-Area, Randstad and metropolitan area of Copenhagen. The food industry of the Wadden Sea Region builds a bridge head be-tween the import of basic materials (like tea, coffee, chocolate,

animal feed), processing of domestic agriculture products and supplying the Wadden Sea Region and its hinterland. In contrast to other industries (like chemical industry) the food markets are more focused on regional markets (dairy products, for example).26

Over the past decades the character of these enterprises changed considerably. Originally being pure crafts enterprises have been increasingly mechanized. Also the enterprises of the food industry displaced the agriculture sector to a large extent as a direct sup-plier of food. The industry consists altogether of thirty single indus-tries (e.g. meat processing, milk processing, beverage production). Characteristic for today are capital intensive manufacturing, local settlement due to freshness requirements, as well as the strongly domestic market-oriented range of products.

Sector development

For a long time now, the food market has stagnated and has been faced with extremely intensive competition. A fact that affects the whole food industry is in particular the corporate power of the strongly concentrated food retail trade, which primarily imposes pressure upon selling prices and on profit margins of the produc-ers. It is to be expected that this process will continue. Surpluses of single divisions are only made at the expense of other market segments. The following trends and developments have emerged in recent years:

The concentration process of enterprises continued during the nineties. Especially breweries and bakeries have been strongly influenced by take-overs.

A strong pricing pressure dominates food markets. The food industry faces only a few dominant-trading groups, who pass the pricing pressure on to the food manufactures due to do-mestic crowding out. The pricing pressure is supplemented by a long growth trend of price-conscious discount products.

Caused by changed consumer and demographical trends, the demand for new convenience products is expanding. The requirement for simple-to-prepare foods and meals like instant meals, convenience food and frozen products is increasing. The segment of frozen food (fish and seafood) has mainly been occupied by companies of the Wadden Sea Region.

The sensibility of consumers and the demand for quality products have been intensified by several crises (e.g. BSE).

26 According to Prognos AG, Deutschland Report 2002: In German food industry for example, more than 80% of the sec-

tor specific turnover stays in Germany.

The increasing demand for healthy and ecologically friendly feeding has developed a growing market for organic foods.

In the nineties the Danish and Dutch food industry was subject to a strong rationalisation process (see Table 31). Every fifth or eighth job was lost. In contrast to that, the food industry in the German Wadden Sea was able to attain a slight growth of employment (0.4% per year).

Table 31: Development of sector specific employment in food in-dustry during the nineties

Food industry 1990 2000 Change in % p.a. Danish Wadden Sea [1993] 4,600 4,000 -1.7


Dutch Wadden Sea [1990] 17,100 13,700 -1.8

Prognos AG 2004 according to official national statistics. The change of industrial employ-ment in German Wadden Sea Region refers to the period 1998-2000. A long-term perspec-tive, which is not feasible for the German Wadden Sea due to changing statistic classifica-tion during the 90ies, would indicate more consistent development of sector-specific em-ployment.

The direct effect of the food industry on the employment situation (37,000) in the Wadden Sea Region increases by including the in-direct effects of supplying sub-sectors. Agriculture and fishery (see chapter 3.1 and 3.2) constitute the most important suppliers to WSR’s food industry. Other employees in a number of sub-sectors, like wholesales and logistics, enlarge the supply chain. About 55,000 employees work in the agriculture and fishery sector.


In accordance with the high specialisation of the Wadden Sea Re-gion in agriculture and fishery (see chapter 3), the region exhibits an extremely high specialisation in food industry. The location density of the three Wadden Sea Regions is above the national average. The German Wadden Sea (ratio 178, 100=national level, see Figure 28) is highly specialised, followed by Danish (ra-tio: 162) and Dutch regions (ratio: 131).

Figure 28: Specialisation on food industry in WSR in comparison to respective countries

Localisation of food industry in the Waddensea-Region

131

153

176

0 100 200

Dutch Waddensea

Danish Waddensea

German Waddensea



The food industry is a significant sector of the Dutch Wadden Sea Region. Approx 14,000 employees realise a turnover of approx. EUR 5.2 billion. Over 16% of the total Dutch employ-ment in the food sector and 12% of the national sector-specific revenues are generated there. The food industry in the region is very diverse, with major product groups including dairy and meat products, sugar, starch, coffee and tea. Nearly half of the food-sector employees in the Dutch Wadden Sea are spe-cialised in these products. Many specialised food related re-search institutes27, large companies28 and a flourishing biotech community initiate new methods and innovations in the region. The province of Fryslân is strongly specialised in dairy prod-ucts. About 13% of all dairy foodstuffs of the Netherlands are produced in this area.

Bremerhaven is the largest harbour and location for fishery and seafood manufacturing. Approx 3,000 employees work in the local food industry. Bremerhaven has specialised in pro-ducing frozen fish and the processing of frozen meals. About 200 enterprises create a cluster of food industry joined by fa-mous groups like Deutsche See, Nordsee, Schottke or Frosta. Innovations like the conservation process have been devel-

27 Like Groningen University, the Van Hall Institute, the Hanzehogeschool, and the Agricultural Educational centres in

Groningen, Fryslân and Drenthe. 28 Like DOC and Nestlé, Fryslân Coberco Dairy Foods in Leeuwarden, Royal Smilde bv in Heerenveen and Douwe Eg-

berts (Sara Lee)

oped by a number of local key-actors.29 The second main port and location for the processing of fish and other foods is Cux-haven (3,900 employees including the fishery sector). Bremer-haven and Cuxhaven are the leading German centres for fish processing, accounting for nearly half of the total employment in the German fish processing food industry. Among other products, like fish and frozen food, the German producers are specialised in potato, dairy and meat products, poultry and crops.

The third main location for fish processing (esp. processing of fish meal) in the Wadden Sea Region is Esbjerg in Denmark. About 3,000 employees are working in the food industry, sup-plemented by 425 employees in fishery.

Table 32: Range of key companies of the food industry

Region Name of company Branch / products Employees

Bremerhaven Nordsee GmbH fish processing and catering * 5,000Cuxhaven/Visbek Lohmann & Co. AG Pet-food segment 3,600Bremerhaven Deutsche See GmbH fish processinging 1,400Bremerhaven Schottke GmbH frozen food 1,130Bremerhaven Frosta AG frozen food 1,070

Schortens (Friesland) Nordfrost Kühl- und Lagerhaus GmbH frozen food 1,000 **

Leeuwarden Fryslân Coberco Dairy Foods dairy products 950Pinneberg Harry-Brot GmbH food industry 575Esbjerg TripleNine Fish Protein a.m.b. bone fish meal 200-500Zoutkamp (NL) Heiploeg shrimp processing 300

Prognos AG 2004 according to several sources. Note: The 5.000 employees of the com-pany Nordsee GmbH are not all located in Bremerhaven. The significant majority of em-ployees work German-wide in approx. 370 food restaurants. ** 1,000 employees in Ger-many, headquarters in Schortens (Friesland).


Faced with increasing competition, domestically and globally, and being placed under growing pressure from demanding consumers as well as retailers, the manufacturers have no choice but to be-come more competitive simply in order to survive. They are forced to resort to cost-cutting measures in all spheres of their operations, including materials handling, processing, production, packaging, marketing and distribution. Although the food industries used to be relatively labour-intensive, they have become increasingly capital-intensive by adopting modern microelectronic technology. Today, large-scale companies, in particular, are constantly upgrading their

29 Like Technologie Transferzentrum TTZ, Bremerhavener Lebensmitteltechnik und Bioverfahrenstechnik BILB, Alfred-

Wegener-Institut für Polar- und Meeresforschung

plant and equipment in an effort to improve their productivity, while medium-scale enterprises are increasingly following suit.

Many processes have been entirely or largely automated using computer-controlled systems, resulting in higher speed production and larger batches. Increased computerisation of production systems facilitates greater remote control of production and more centralized managerial control if computers are located in isolated control booths and if decision-making is effectively removed from the shop floor. This can result in the deskilling of workers as well as the reduction of direct labour input. On the other hand, com-puter-controlled production can also lead to more efficient and quality-driven activity by front-line workers if they have access to greater information concerning production and quality control processes and are capable of proper decision-making.

In addition to the new technology that helps companies to achieve leaner production, biotechnology and related sciences have be-come important for food companies to gain a better position in the market. In order to meet consumers' fickle demands, producers must make constant efforts to improve their products or to develop new ones. The food industry is in comparison to other sectors (like automotive or chemical industry) less innovative and research in-tensive. Despite the relative low R&D effort the food industry car-ries e.g. about 2,000 newly created products in Germany per an-num to the market, whereof about 75% disappear from the market within the first year. A large part of these innovations has hardly any academic standard. Market innovations are introduced most frequently by large-scale enterprises; small enterprises in this sec-tor are less innovative. Alongside fundamental research and pro-ject research, market research plays an important role in the proc-ess of innovation of the food industry alongside.

Food technology, including biotechnology, food chemistry and other processing techniques that are used in the food industry, have evolved considerably, particularly in the development of the host of flavourings, sweeteners, preservatives and colourings that are known generally as additives. Additives are used by manufac-turers basically to make their products taste better, look more at-tractive and last longer. They are developed primarily through ex-traction from natural sources, chemical synthesis or fermentation. An increase has been seen in the direct application of biotechnol-ogy in the food industry in the development of substitutes for cer-tain ingredients used in food preparation.

The application of biotechnology in the development of novel foods, often known as "nutraceuticals" or "functional foods", has become widespread, and this is considered to be a promising area for expansion for the food industry where high value can be added to new products. Typical functional foods have been such products as those with low-fat and low-cholesterol content for the specific

dietary needs of some consumers. New functional products, being marketed today, include foods that are claimed by producers to have particular health and medical benefits, such as reducing blood sugar levels, reducing the risk of heart disease or improving the immune system.

In addition to the microelectronic and food technologies, certain other developments that have employment implications merit a brief mention. One is the development of freezing technology. The production of frozen foods has risen rapidly, as consumers seek more convenient products that resemble fresh and home-cooked foods. Freezing technology has advanced considerably in response to this trend. Modern freezing technology can preserve meat, fish and seafood as well as all kinds of fruits and vegetables at the peak of freshness. It also permits them to process raw mate-rials where they are harvested, where the labour cost may be much more advantageous, and still be able to transport the fin-ished goods to markets in large cities without losing the freshness of the products. Needless to say, this technology has been re-sponsible for the increased availability of the facilities that can transport and store frozen goods without affecting their quality.

Outlook

In general, expenditure on food represents only a small and dimin-ishing share of consumer expenditure and generally speaking, food sales tend to remain fairly stable over the economic cycle as demand for necessity purchases of foodstuffs is usually quite ine-lastic. For example the share of consumer spending for food prod-ucts has declined in German households from 14% (1991) to 12% (2001). Given such demand conditions it is not surprising that the industry is characterised by extremely strong competitive pres-sures, leading producers to squeeze profit margins in order to cap-ture or preserve market shares. The bargaining power of the major retail chains and the proliferation of modern retail formats is a fur-ther pressure contributing to shrinking margins.

The challenges of the food industry include globalisation - as travel creates the demand for foreign food; this can be fulfilled by a re-gionally based production or, often just as easily by overseas pro-duction with the easing of trade and increased product shelf life through technological developments. The demand for cheaper food also creates the need for overseas production where costs are well below the European average. The dominance of the re-tailers and popularity of their own label products means that the source of production of a high proportion of the food consumed is determined by the retailers. This coupled with their links with other global retailers through retailer alliance development and overseas development in turn increases the competition faced by the do-mestic food industry.

The increase in such competition will lead to a continued rationali-sation of a large percentage of the manufacturing capacity through mergers, acquisitions and closures, particularly at the commodity end of the business. It will push producers to respond through the introduction of labour saving technologies, increased marketing and the improvement of logistic and distribution channels. There still is the trend to move up-market away from commodity markets with the industry repositioning itself to meet shifts in consumer preferences towards higher quality processed and ready-to-use products exhibiting such qualities as variety, convenience, healthi-ness, and novelty. Foodstuffs exhibiting such qualities constitute the growth and profitable sectors of the market.

Against this background the consumer population is polarising. The top end demands variety, interesting food, new foods, new tastes, authenticity, freshness and individuality, whilst the bottom end demands optimum value with prices as low as possible and is less interested in origin, production methods, ingredients and packaging. In effect the industry is faced with an increasingly lazy, fussy, irrational, contradictory and intolerant consumer. The chal-lenge is undoubtedly to be market-led. Businesses, wherever they are in the supply chain, have to consider the needs of their cus-tomers and design products for which there is a demand.

Such changing patterns of demand are steadily fragmenting large parts of the food market and providing new opportunities for smaller and more flexible firms to exploit. However, the competi-tion is so intensive that even in quality niche markets suppliers are still feeling the squeeze. In addition to the direct commercial pres-sures, the industry also has to respond to public worries concern-ing salmonella and BSE, genetically modified foods and the use of new processing technologies, as well as national and EU legisla-tion concerning hygiene, safety standards and animal welfare.

In future, the concentration process will progress. The absolute number of suppliers will decline. Large enterprises will increasingly specialise on the productive segments of high-quality products. Smaller and middle-sized enterprises have to concentrate on re-gional markets and niche products. In the long-term view (until 2020) the GDP will increase by 1% p.a. More and more turnover growth will be achieved on foreign markets. The foreign business will gain importance by EU enlargement. If the income in eastern European markets increase, the market potential for high-quality brand products will also increase subsequently.

A long-term risk (approx. from 2020 on) for the food industry is the demographic development. The total population and therefore the number of consumers will stagnate or shrink due to weak birth rates. The sales in segments catering for children and young peo-ple will strongly be affected. Especially the German Wadden Sea

Region could be affected by such demographical changes and a decrease of the sales volume of food products.

Table 33: Forecast of sector-specific GDP and employment in food industry until 2020

Food industry Jobs 2000 Jobs 2010 Jobs 2020Change jobs in




Dutch Wadden Sea 13,700 13,200 12,750 -0.3 1.7


Until 2020 the food industry will develop diversely in the Wadden Sea Region. According to national developments in Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands, growth differences are to be ex-pected. In all countries the increase of sector-specific GDP (0.8% resp. 1.7%) will be affected.

The Danish food industry represents a special case in the Euro-pean food markets.30 The Danish food industry will be affected by the strongest job-cuts. Nearly every sixth employee in the food in-dustry is expected to lose his job. During the 1980s and 1990s, company mergers and takeovers radically transformed the Danish structure of the agri-food sector, with multinationals (economies of scales) accounting for a growing share of the market. Due to high and increasing productivity (about 3.2% p.a. in food industry in comparison to 1.9% total Denmark), a high degree of concentra-tion and continuing redundancies in Danish agriculture/fishery, the number of jobs in the food processing industry will decline faster than in other countries.

In the whole Wadden Sea Region it is expected that about 5,000 jobs will be lost in the food industry. The relatively strong job-cuts in the German and the Dutch Wadden Sea Region are attributed to the sector-specific productivity (value added per employed person) in the food industry, which is significantly below national total aver-age. The modern and highly productive Dutch food industry will perform better than the Danish or German food industry in the fu-ture.

The opening up of new food markets, development of new produc-tion technologies, product innovations, e.g. “functional food”, re-newable energies and renewable primary products, as well as the

30 According to Pierre Antoine BARTHELEMY (Eurostat),

http://europa.eu.int/comm/agriculture/envir/report/en/emplo_en/report_en.htm

safety of food and environment protection aren't possible without an efficient research and a corresponding knowledge transfer.

Biotechnology more and more effects the modification of conven-tional food. The key catchwords for technical innovations are “func-tional food” (additional use of micro organisms or hydrates) and “novel food” (genetically modified vegetable products). A counter movement towards the health-conscious processing of foodstuffs, for example by substitution of antidegradants, is a new trend.

Figure 29: Strength and weakness of food industry

Strengths

Second most important indus-trial sector in Wadden Sea Re-gion

Powerful position within the food chain, linking primary pro-ducers with retailers and final consumers

Closeness to ports is conducive to imports and exports

Large parts of the food market are steadily being fragmented and providing new opportunities for smaller and more flexible firms. Niche markets can be opened

Opening of new regional mar-kets in Eastern Europe and in new segments (high-quality prod-ucts, organic foods)

Increasing demand for ecological and regionally manufactured products in hotel and restaurant industry and health service

Closeness to important market areas, like Hamburg, Randstad

Weaknesses

Market stagnation over long period and extremely intense competition

Expenditure on food represents only a small and diminishing share of consumer expenditure

Demand for necessity purchases of foodstuffs is usually quite inelastic

Corporate power of the strongly concentrated food retail trade

Pricing pressure dominates food markets

Concentration process of enter-prises

Continuous reduction of jobs is to be expected until 2010

High dependency on EU regula-tions and the protection of cus-toms union

Prognos AG 2004

4.4 Chemical industry


With 24,000 employees third most important sector, slow reduction of jobs expected until 2020.

In particular, the German and Dutch WSR has specialized in chemical industry with the focus on the segments basic chemicals and rubber and plastics.

High regional concentration of chemical industry on maritime locations, like Wil-helmshaven (Jade-Weser), Stade/Brunsbüttel (Elbe), Delfzijl (Ems)

Advantages of locations: good ship connections, supply function to the hinterland industry, connexion with neighbouring power plants and refineries

Threats: low self-determination of chemical industry in WSR, decision making not in WSR but rather in headquarter locations outside of WSR, the segment of crude oil re-finery experiences tough competition with international locations.

New milestones: infrastructure improvement by investment of Jade-Weser-Port in Wilhelmshaven and extension of pipeline-system "Chemcoast" in Lower Saxony and Schleswig-Holstein

Branch profile

In general, the chemical industry includes the following sub-branches: basic chemicals, pesticides, pharmaceuticals, cleaning products and personal hygiene, as well as rubber and plastics. Chemical industry is characterised by high capital intensity and high focus on world markets. The sector depends on imports of raw material chemicals and the export of chemical products. The currency level of the US dollar strongly influences the conditions of exports. The chemical industry in the Wadden Sea Region is fo-cused on basic chemicals and refinery (crude oil), as well as rub-ber and plastics. Other chemical branches like pharmaceuticals, personal hygiene or pesticides are less represented in the Wadden Sea Region. Like the metal industry, the chemical industry is strongly focused on foreign markets.31

31 According to Prognos AG, Deutschland Report 2002: Nearly 60% of the German turnover in chemical industry was gen-

erated in 2001 by exports.

Sector development

During the nineties the plastic and rubber industry was a fast grow-ing branch. This sub-sector benefited from the substitute competi-tion of products like glass, metal, wood, paper by plastic products. The medium-sized industry of rubber and synthetic material ob-tained growth rates above the branch average in recent years.

In contrast to this, the basic chemical industry and refinery has been affected by a decline in heating-oil supply and overcapacity. A relevant innovative niche market, which has developed dynami-cally in recent years, is the biotech industry. In the Wadden Sea Region the biotech industry is focused on maritime applications and food industry. The chemical industry was characterised by low dynamics during the nineties. In the German and Dutch Wadden Sea Region the sector-specific employment remained on a con-stant level. The Danish Wadden Sea Region could only achieve a weak growth of employment (0.4% per year).

Table 34: Development of sector specific employment in chemi-cal industry during the nineties

Chemical industry [number of jobs] 1990 2000 Change in % p.a. Danish Wadden Sea [1993] 1,640 1,680 0.4


Dutch Wadden Sea [1990] 6,200 6,200 0.0

Prognos AG 2004 according to official national statistics. The change of industrial employ-ment in German Wadden Sea Region refers to the period 1998-2000. A long-term view, which is not possible for the German Wadden Sea cause of changing statistic classification during the 90ies, would indicate more consistent development of sector-specific employ-ment.


The chemical plants in the Wadden Sea Region are large and me-dium-sized and belong to international corporate groups, which are located outside the Wadden Sea area. The companies’ strategy aims at scale effects by concentrating processes on large plants at few locations. The main reasons for investments of international chemical companies in the Wadden Sea Region are the location advantages like attractive transport connection on water and sup-plying hinterland industry.

The specialisation of the Dutch and German Wadden Sea Region on the chemical industry does not become apparent from location density (see Figure 30). The chemical industry in the Dutch, Dan-ish and German Wadden Sea Region is represented below the na-tional average in terms of jobs. The German Wadden Sea Region (ratio: 90, 100=national level) has the highest specialisation de-gree followed by Dutch (ratio: 72) and Danish region (ratio: 62).

Main reason for specialisation degrees below national average is the concentration of capital-intensive products (refinery, basic chemicals, rubber and plastics) with relatively low employment im-pacts. Other leading chemical industry regions, like Rhineland or Frankfurt in Germany are specialised in labour-intensive seg-ments, like pharmaceutical products.

Figure 30: Specialisation on chemical industry in WSR in com-parison to respective countries

Localisation of chemical industry in the Waddensea-Region

62

72

90

0 50 100

Danish Waddensea

Dutch Waddensea

German Waddensea



Regional concentration of chemical industry could be identified:

A strong cluster of chemical industry has developed in the Dutch Wadden Sea Region: Around Delfzijl and the Chemical Park Delfzijl chemical companies have formed a cluster in the former Akzo Nobel Emmen complex. The local availability of rock salt and natural gas was the major factor that led to the development of this cluster. Due to subsidies and other factors, such as lower labour costs, this area is less expensive than the western part of the country. About 13% of employment in the chemical industry is located in the province of Groningen (approx 3,000 jobs). Generally, mostly international companies represent the rubber and plastic industry in the provinces Fryslân and Groningen.32 A superior energy infrastructure in the Netherlands provides a competitive advantage to the chemical industry, with over half of the country’s energy con-sumption supplied by domestic natural gas.

32 like S.C. Johnson Polymer, Akzo Nobel Coatings, EFKA Additives, Environmental Inks, Koninklijke Utermöhlen, Enna

Aërosols, Dunlop Enerka, Ato Haas, MoTip, Avec, Lankhorst Recycling

The German chemical industry is concentrated on three main coastal locations. In Lower Saxony the chemical industry is lo-cated in Wilhelmshaven and Stade (Elbe). In Schleswig-Holstein the chemical industries are located in Brunsbüttel (Elbe). The German chemical locations have specialised in dif-ferent products. Wilhelmshaven mostly is refinery, chlorine production and port of transhipment for oil. The locations Brunsbüttel and Stade are specialised in basic and specific chemical products and are networking with power plants. The project “Chemcoast” is a joint initiative in the German Wadden Sea Region in order to connect these chemical locations by pipelines and link them to the chemical cluster of the Rhine-Ruhrarea. This project will increase the raw material supply (ethyl, propylene and natural gas) of regionally based compa-nies.

Table 35: Key companies of chemical industry

Region Name of company Branch / products Employees

Pinneberg AstraZeneca GmbH Pharmaceuticals 1,800 Stade Dow Chemical Werk Stade basic /sepcial chemical products 1,500 Dithmarschen Bayer AG Werk Brunsbüttel chemical industry (pesticides) 1,070 Delfzijl Akzo Nobel Chemicals bv chemical industry 890 Dithmarschen Shell & DEA Oil GmbH Raffinerie Heide refinery 620 Dithmarschen Sasol Germany GmbH Werk Brunsbüttel chemical industry (fatty alcohol) 580 Wilhelmshaven European Vinyls Corporation GmbH chemical industry (PVC) 470 Wilhelmshaven Wilhelmshavener Raffineriegesells. MbH refinery (crude oil) 300 Cuxhaven TAD Pharmazeutisches Werk GmbH pharmaceuticals 215 Wilhelmshaven INEOS Chlor Atlantik GmbH chemical industry (chloric gas) 150

Prognos AG 2004 according to several sources


The chemical industry belongs to fast innovating sectors, which strongly affect innovations and changes in other economic sectors like food industry or cosmetics industry. On average about 3% of the sector-specific GDP is invested in R&D measures, whereas the R&D expenditure of the chemical industry declined in the nineties. Large-scale enterprises represent the most dominant players in the process of innovation. Raw material chemistry is particularly capital-intensive and depends on the development of the commod-ity prices on the world market. The processing costs are the driving forces for innovations, especially for process innovations. In con-trast to this, the sub-sector special, chemical and pharmaceuticals are concentrated on development of new products.

There is a great innovation potential in the plastic segment, based on cooperation between synthetic material producers, syn-thetic material manufacturers and synthetic material mechanical engineering. Taken over the past five years, the synthetic material

industry has been amongst those few segments in the chemical industry with a positive occupation balance. One growth segment in the plastic industry will be the increasing demand for drinking vessels of polyethylene terephthalate. Up to the year 2010 the worldwide demand for PET packing will reduplicate.

Active environment and climate protection will gain worldwide sig-nificance in the future. Carbon dioxide emissions, which arise from mineral oil by burning fossil fuels, have primarily moved into focus. Bio diesels and Bio ethanol are environmentally friendly alterna-tives. Therefore, these fuels are facing a worldwide boom. Bio die-sel is produced out of rape oil and other vegetable oils such as sunflowers, soya or palm oil. It reduces the soot emission by about 50 per cent, is almost carbon dioxide neutral and reduces the en-gine wear. For example, in Germany there are already about 2.5 mill. cars and about 1,500 gas stations equipped for this technol-ogy. An EU law will increase the amount of bio fuel up to 5.75 per cent until 2010.

A range of exemplarily new products and innovations in the chemi-cal industry includes for example:

Liquid crystal, the pioneering chemical innovation of liquid crystals for LCDs (Liquid Crystal Displays) used in modern households

Development of intelligent surfaces with protection functions like nano-technologies

Use of environmentally harmless chemicals like biological pesticides (targets: reduction CO2 emissions, air pollution con-trol)

Process innovations in the chemical industry are aimed at reduc-ing energy and resource consumption, as well as ecological dam-age to increase the plant safety, quality and to lower the produc-tion costs. New bio-technical methods like applications of bacteria or enzymes play an increasingly important role in process innova-tions. During the eighties and nineties environmental protection has become relevant also as a new market segment. The market for recycling waste and old equipment has resulted from this de-velopment.

Outlook

After the last boom in 2000 the chemical industry had to step back in 2001 due to the international economic slowdown. The exports of petrochemicals and primary plastics stagnated, but the interna-tional demand of final chemicals flourished.

Basically, perspectives of the chemical industry are attractive. In contrast to the food and metal industry, the chemical industry in general will exhibit high growth rates of GDP. Due to advanced processes of cost efficiency the reduction of jobs has nearly reached the end. Between 2000 and 2020 a reduction of about 3,000 jobs is to be expected, especially in the German Wadden Sea Region (2,600 jobs). About 17% of jobs in chemical industry will be cut by 2020.

Table 36: Forecast of sector-specific GDP and employment in chemical industry up to 2020

Chemical industry Jobs 2000 Jobs 2010 Jobs 2020Change jobs in




Dutch Wadden Sea 6,200 6,100 6,000 -0.1 2.6


The perspectives for the subsectors of the chemical industry in the Wadden Sea Region are regarded in detail. For rubbers and plas-tics the chances for new growth are friendly, caused by an increas-ing substitution of glass, metal and wood. The rather traditional materials are taken off and replaced by synthetic material or even newer materials like carbon fiber. In the Wadden Sea Region automotives and the aircraft industry will be key clients of this sub-sector. The perspectives of the raw material chemical and refinery sub-sectors are less friendly than the perspectives for rubber and plastic, because of an expected decline in crude oil demand in the long term view.

However the global economy intensifies competitive pressure on companies, who react by restructuring their fields of operation. With this new orientation they focus on core competences and give up marginal activities. In their core fields of activity, companies must secure their lead through innovation. The greatest strength in general as an industry location is its knowledge base. Research departments, their staff and research institutions have to develop know-how, which is unique in the international arena. The chemi-cal industry cannot rival international competitors where low wages and low-priced raw materials are concerned. Instead the chemical industry must use the strategic advantages of its outstanding knowledge base and invest in research and development to offer

high-quality, innovative products able to make up for high factor costs.

Hence, the enterprises will continue primarily to concentrate on their core competences and strive for technological superiority or the preservation of their technological efficiency. This is connected to efforts in the areas of research and development as well as in-vestments and innovations. To handle this, the chemical enter-prises will co-operate, among others with smaller companies, strive for alliances as well as carry out networking. An important precondition for these strategies is the existing human resources, which represent a very substantial factor for the preservation of the competitiveness and innovation ability. Nevertheless, bottlenecks have to be expected here since the supply of qualified university graduates is not great enough in the region. If the enterprises are unable to recruit such experts, they will have severe development problems.

The demand for chemical products grows faster in other regions of the world than in Germany. Export activities and investments abroad are necessary for German chemical companies if they want to participate with their products in this growth and make their R&D expenditure profitable. Production sites at home and abroad cooperate closely within international production networks, secur-ing the competitiveness of production facilities also in Germany. A problem for the future, relating to regional development, might be that the Wadden Sea Region has evolved into a true “operations region”, whereby the management of the chemical companies run-ning the production facilities is increasingly located outside the re-gion or abroad.

Due to an ever increasing strength of globalisation, the chemical industry is in a permanent competition with locations in Europe, the USA and Asia. Until now enterprises managed to survive this competition by a continuous optimisation of the available produc-tion plants with respect to energy and product development and improvement. Additional advantages must be aimed at by the use of synergies between the different enterprises. The raw material costs, for example, are generally one of the biggest cost blocks in a chemistry business. The development of synergies in the supply of raw materials is therefore important above all. The enterprises already manufacture materials which are usually processed within the chemical industry or other industrial ranges. A better exchange process could lead to a cost optimisation. If these industrial ex-change processes could be intensified, this complex relation net-work would thus be a substantial contribution to the competitive-ness of the region.

In this context, an important trend in the processing chemical in-dustry is clustering diverse competences at regional chemistry lo-cations. Due to the high infrastructure costs (energy, disposal,

transportation) local competitors of the chemical industry combine in so-called chemical parks. The German Wadden Sea Region will benefit from high synergy advantages if the pipeline-system (“chem.-coast”) from Brunsbüttel/Stade to Rhine-Ruhr-area via Wilhelmshaven is implemented. In contrast to other chemical parks (Delfzijl) the German chemical locations in WSR are rarely at-tached to universities and key-research institutes.33

Figure 31: Strength and weakness of chemical industry

Strengths

International expanding demand for final chemicals

Main locations at the coast are highly competitive in terms of ac-cessibility, supply of energy, raw materials, preliminary products as well as proximity to customers.

Partly representing strong cluster at national level (e.g. Delzijl, Wil-helmshaven, Brunsbüttel, Esbjerg)

Synergy advantages for German chemical location by realisation of the common pipeline-system “chem-coast”

Weaknesses

Costs of R&D expenditures are very high, especially for SME

Most key-companies are only branch plants with limited decision-function

Chemical industry’s dependence on production (i.e. the manufactur-ing processes) and limited man-agement and research functions.

Highly dependant on customers and cyclical fluctuations

Limited research and innovation facilities in the region

Partly bad road traffic connections (e.g. Brunsbüttel and Stade)

Prognos AG 2004

33 amoung others: University of Groningen, Gas unie, etc.

4.5 Energy sector


Decoupling of economic growth from energy consumption has started. Despite in-creasing economic growth (assumption 2% p.a.) the total primary energy supply will decline. According to the European Commission the primary energy demand in the EU-15 is estimated to increase by 8.5% between 2000 and 2010, slowing down to 5.2% in 2010 to 2020.

In the next 20 years the world market prices for crude oil will increase steadily but gradually. However, short-term price fluctuations have to be expected. In 2020 crude oil still represents the most important energy source in the world, although it is losing importance on global level against natural gas. Nearly 90% of the energy supply will rely on fossil fuels.

Till 2020 there will occur a strong decline of nuclear energy supply and a moderate decrease in coal supply. In contrast, natural gas and renewable energy sources are expected to receive a significant boost as a result of policy measures and technologi-cal processes. The market share of regenerative sources will nearly double in Ger-many until 2020 and will reach 4.4%. The increase of regenerative energies is based mainly on the impact of wind energy.

Except for the industry and the transport sector all other sectors (households, trade/ services) will demand less energy in 2020 than today.

Europe will establish an energy market characterised by a high degree of concentra-tion. The early liberalisation of the energy and gas markets will accelerate this proc-ess.

Branch profile

The utility industry includes the sub-sectors energy sources (explo-ration of gas), processing and energy supply. The energy con-sumption in the Wadden Sea Region is determined by the energy consumption of the key sectors like chemical industry and basic metals (e.g. production of aluminium) and is focused on the main port locations of the region. The manufacturing of machines and equipment for energy generation (e.g. production of wind turbines) is not a branch of the energy sector. It is included in the section basic metal industry.

Sector development

Since the 90s, the European energy markets and the energy in-dustry itself have been undergoing dynamic changes. The markets are being liberalised. The creation of a single market at the Euro-pean level is being pursued. According to the new EU Electricity and Gas Directives, adopted in June 2003, EU member states have to open their markets for all non-household customers by

July 2004, and for all customers by July 2007. Due to the liberali-sation and economic reasons the structure of the energy markets has changed dramatically. This is valid especially for Germany and the Netherlands and, to a lesser extent, for Denmark, too. Market players, suppliers and system operators, have reorganised them-selves internally to comply with the new rules and market require-ments. Merger and acquisition activities and the appearance of new market players have accompanied the restructuring process. Especially German companies have merged and intensified their international activities as shown by the companies E.ON and RWE. Until 1999, it were municipalities and provincial govern-ments that owned Dutch energy companies, directly or indirectly. Since then several companies have been privatised, involving also new foreign shareholders.

In general the energy markets of the three Wadden Sea countries are undergoing an improvement of their efficiency, which has re-sulted in a decline in the number of employees. During the nineties approximately every fourth employee lost his job in energy sector. Between 1990 and 2000 the total number of jobs in energy sector declined from 8,400 to 6,800 employees.

Table 37: Development of sector specific employment in energy supply during the nineties

Utility [number of jobs] 1990 2000 Change in % p.a. Danish Wadden Sea [1993] 850 700 -2.2

German Wadden Sea [1998] 3,250 2,550 -10.3

Dutch Wadden Sea [1990] 4,600 3,400 -2.3

Prognos AG 2004 according to official national statistics. The change of industry employ-ment in German Wadden Sea Region refers the period 1998-2000. A long-term view, which is not possible for the German Wadden Sea due to changing statistic classification during the 90ies, would indicate more consistent development of sector-specific employment.

Liberalisation and new market developments

The opening of the electricity market resulted in falling prices for all consumer groups in Germany, while prices in Denmark and the Netherlands remain stable or are on the rise (see Figure 32). In this context it is necessary to emphasise that the higher prices for Danish households are caused by energy and CO2 taxes, which amounted to roughly 40% of the price34. Due to the ownership market concentration, high royalties and the introduction of the ecological tax reform prices have also been increasing in Germany recently.

34 Danish Energy Authority: Energy in Denmark 2002. http://www.ens.dk

Figure 32: Development of electricity prices and generation by fuel

0

5

10

15

20

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001

curr

ent p

rices

in in

cen

t (Eu

ro] p

er k

Wh

households Denmark industry Denmarkhouseholds Germany industry Germanyhouseholds Netherlands industry Netherlands

Gross electricity generation by type [2000] Denmark Germany Netherlands Nuclear in % - 30.0 4.4 Coal in % 46.3 51.6 25.6 Oil in % 12.2 0.9 3.5 Gas in % 24.4 10.6 61.8 Wind in % 12.2 1.7 0.9 other renewable sources in % 5.0 5.2 3.7 total in TWh 36.2 571.6 89.6

Prognos AG 2004 according to Eurostat and European Commission, Note: Data for industry 2000 and 2001 in Netherlands and Denmark are not available.

In the years to come the energy production in Germany will change due to the abandonment of the nuclear power. The Ger-man government and the utilities agreed on putting a regulated end to the use of nuclear energy. For every nuclear power plant, a maximum quantity for residual electricity generation is stipulated. The quantities allocated to older nuclear power plants can be transferred to newer plants. In the Wadden Sea Region three nu-clear power stations exist (Brokdorf, Brunsbüttel and Unterweser). The decommissioning of the plant in Stade started in 2003. The deconstruction of the nuclear power plants will take several years and requires the further commitment of most employees. In 2003, about 1,400 employees in large energy groups (EON, Vattenfallen) directly were dependant on nuclear energy generation, followed by indirect employees in service and security sectors in German Wadden Sea Region. Projected from the total number of direct and indirect employees in the nuclear sector of Germany (38,000 jobs), up to 6,000 jobs in power plants and supplying services in the

German Wadden Sea Region will become redundant due to de-commissioning up to 2020.35

The abandonment of nuclear power means that nearly 30% of electricity production in Germany has to come from renewable and conventional energy sources, to which must be added consider-able efforts in energy efficiency. Considering the share of renew-able energy in the primary energy supply, Germany and the Neth-erlands present with 2.6% and 1.4% relatively low figures com-pared to Denmark (10%).36 By 2010 the German Government aims to achieve a share of at least 4.2% and has been establishing extensive supportive measures (e.g. Renewable Energy Sources Act).

Renewable sources of energy can not only help to reduce de-pendence on energy imports and modernise further the energy sector, but also help to improve industrial competitiveness. More-over, renewable technologies can have a positive impact on re-gional development and employment. Considering the specific conditions of the Wadden Sea Region, especially wind power pro-duced off shore, will gain increasingly more importance.


In comparison to national employment the share of the energy sec-tor is basically concentrated in the Danish (ratio: 133, 100=national level, see Figure 33) and Dutch (ratio 107) Wadden Sea Region. Both areas exhibit specialisation degrees above the national average of the respective country. In contrast to the Dan-ish and the Dutch region, the employment share of the German Wadden Sea Region (ratio: 72) is below the national average. This means, other German regions are more strongly specialised in en-ergy markets (measured by labour force) than the Wadden Sea Region.

35 According to Deutsches Atomforum and Kerntechnische Gesellschaft about 38,000 jobs depend on nuclear power in

Germany. About 8,000 employees in energy groups belong to operational staff in power plants, remaining 30,000 are external staff, R&D, security, consulting, production etc.. http://www.haw-hamburg.de/pers/Kaspar-Sickermann/kgs/VDEW02.html

36 Internationale Energy Agency: Renewables Information 2002 with 2000 data. http://www.iea.org

Figure 33: Localisation of the energy sector in the WSR compared to the respective country

Localisation of utility sector in the Waddensea-Region

72

107

138

0 100 200

German Waddensea

Dutch Waddensea

Danish Waddensea



The electricity generating capacity installed in the Wadden Sea Region amounts to nearly 8,500 MW (see following table). Re-newable sources are not considered. The German nuclear fa-cilities have a share of about 40% of the total capacity. In 2003 the nuclear capacities of the Wadden Sea Region were re-duced by 660 MW due to the closure of the power plant in Stade. About 45% of the power plant capacities are operated on the basis of natural gas, especially the Dutch Wadden Sea Region uses domestic gas resources. The supply by coal and oil sources is subordinate in the Wadden Sea Region.

The Wadden Sea Region has a supply function for the three countries regarding their energy consumption. The Wadden Sea Regions have a share of 5.6% of the total electrical gen-eration capacity installed in these countries. This fact stands in contrast to the share of population. Only 3.6% of the total population live in the Wadden Sea Region.

Major fuel sources for the energy sector in the Wadden Sea Region are regional fossil resources. The Netherlands has the largest gas reserves in the EU and supply almost 20% of Europe’s annual demand. The power generation industry pro-vides work for roughly 6,000 people in the Dutch WSR. If the supply energy industry is included, the total number of employ-ees amounts to some 10,000 people.

Table 38: Power plants (> 10 MW) in WSR by location

Region Company/power plant Type / energy source

Capacity in MW

Year

Eemshaven (NL) Electrabel Nederland n.v. - Eemscentrale II combined power/ gas 1,675 1995Wesermarsch (Stadland) E.ON power plant Unterweser nuclear 1,345 1978Steinburg Brokdorf E.ON Kernkraft / Vattenfall Europe nuclear 1,326 1986Dithmarschen (Brunsbüttel)

Vattenfall Europe / EON Kernkraftwerk Brunsbüttel GmbH nuclear 771 1976

Wilhelmshaven E.ON power plant Wilhelmshaven coal and crude oil 747 1976Eemshaven (NL) Electrabel Nederland n.v. - Eemscentrale I combined power/ gas 697 1977

Stade E.ON Kernkraftwerk nuclear 660 1972-2003

Emden E.ON power plant Emden natural gas 430 1972

Esbjerg (DK) Elsa Esbjergværket

Combined thermal and electrical power station (coal/oil) 378 1992

Delfzijl (NL) Delesto-2 combined-cycle (Akzo Nobel/ Es-sent)

combined-cycle (gas) industrial used 360 n.a.

Bergum (NL) Electrabel - Centrale Bergum combined power / gas 334 1974

Wesermarsch (Elsfleth) E.ON Luftspeicher-Gasturbinenkraftwerk Huntorf natural gas 290 1978

Steinburg (Oldendorf) E.ON Gasturbinenkraftwerk Itzehoe crude oil 87 1971Leeuwarden (NL) n.a. natural gas 28 1968Emden Stadtwerke EWE AG biomass 20 2004Steinburg (Glückstadt) E.ON Heizkraftwerk Glückstadt GmbH coal 14 1986

Prognos AG 2004 according to declarations of respective energy groups. Note: without the wind energy capacities. Also without further details about the power plants Bremerhaven, Bremer Lagerhaus Gesellschaft, Eurogate.

The large volumes of natural gas entering Germany, particu-larly on the Northwest coast around Emden, have given rise to efforts to establish Europe's third major natural gas hub at Bunde near the Dutch border. This is the point where the pipe-line system of the Dutch Gasunie links up to the German net-works of Ruhrgas, Wingas, and BEB. Spot trading by about a dozen companies is already taking place.

The energy sector is of a relatively large importance for the employment in the Danish Wadden Sea Region. The Danish region around Esbjerg has developed as a centre for the en-ergy sector and is building a base for offshore activities in and related to oil and gas extraction from the North Sea. The ag-glomeration consists of around 100 companies, employing 7,000-8,000 people. Big operators such as Mærsk Oil and Gas, Amerada Hess and Statoil have settled there.37

37 According to Cowi, 2003


Two main key-technologies are affecting the energy markets:

Renewable energies have developed rapidly. This develop-ment has been initiated by going new directions in energy pol-icy. The growing use of renewable technology aims to develop environmentally friendly energy sources, which do not affect the balance of carbon dioxide and at the same time hold a vast potential for jobs on national and regional levels. Currently two main renewable technologies are spreading - biomass and wind energy. Particularly in the German Wadden Sea Region there has been an expansion of wind energy utilisation. Be-tween 1994 and 2003 the installed wind energy power in MW increased enormously (see Table 39). Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands accounted for 65% of the total wind power ca-pacity installed in the EU-15 by the end of 2003. The technol-ogy of wind energy has developed a new economic sector of about 45,000 jobs in Germany and about 9,000 in Denmark. Wind energy continues to expand. The European Renewables Directive aims to meet 22% of electricity needs with renewable energies by 2010 in the EU-15. This target can only be achieved with a significant contribution from wind power. Therefore the European wind industry has set itself the target of 75,000 MW installed capacity by 2010, of which 10,000 MW should be established offshore.

As the wind energy utilisation on land is limited, further devel-opments occur offshore at sea where a stronger breeze blows. Nearly 20 offshore wind farms are being developed in the Wadden Sea Region, mainly in the German area. The world’s largest offshore wind farm still is Horns Rev (DK), which was commissioned in 2002. This wind farm has an installed capac-ity of 160 MW and is located 14-20 km into the North Sea. The erection of offshore wind farms are vitally important for the re-gional development in the years to come as they create new jobs and guarantee the continuing importance of the Wadden Sea Region in the electricity generation.

Table 39: Installed wind energy capacity in Denmark, Germany and Netherlands

Installed wind energy power in MW

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2010 Change 1996-2003 in %

Denmark 842 1,129 1,443 1,771 2,417 2,489 2,889 3,110 5,000 370

Germany 1,552 2,081 2,875 4,442 6,113 8,754 11,994 14,609 28,000 941

Netherlands 299 319 361 433 446 493 678 873 2,500 292

Prognos AG, 2004 / EWEA European Wind Energy Association, 2004

The second main technology is the combined heat and power generation (CHP). This technology aims to increase the effi-ciency of energy generation. The falling capital costs for small power plants in combination with various incentives to encour-age power generation on a smaller scale promote CHP and contribute to higher system reliability. New constraints being imposed on emissions, respectively on CO2 emissions, support the broader use of CHP. Especially the Dutch and Danish fos-sil power plants are mostly provided with this technology. About 35% and 40% of the national capacity of power genera-tion is based on this technology. In Germany the share of CHP with nearly 15% is relatively low. With the abandonment of nu-clear power and the initiation of the emission trading, it is ex-pected that the CHP-technology will attract more importance.

Outlook

The energy markets in the Wadden Sea Region are changing. The trend towards a decoupling of energy consumption and economic growth will continue. In the long-term the utilities are confronted with shrinking markets. The continuation of improvements to eco-nomic efficiency and, to a lesser extent, the decline in jobs is ex-pected. The number of employees working in the energy sector will probably decrease by nearly 1,200 by 2020. Until 2020 the energy sector is likely to grow slower than the other industrial sectors such as the chemical industry. In the Netherlands and Denmark the sec-tor-specific growth rates of GDP will be higher than in Germany.

In the future, the perspectives in the three parts of the WSR will differ. Due to its enormous natural onshore and offshore resources of oil and gas, the Dutch and Danish WSR will be of national as well as European importance in respect of energy competence. The oil reserves in the North Sea still will suffice approximately to 2030-2050. Natural gas will become strategically more important due to lower CO2 emissions, higher efficiency and simpler access in Europe. The Netherlands have very big reserves of natural gas, which however, will gradually decline. Except for certain unex-ploited capacities of the field in the area northwest of Groningen, the Dutch potential is sufficiently known. However, until 2010/2012 the Netherlands could lose their leading role in Europe’s gas ex-ports, because of declining exploitation capacities and supplying local requirements.38

The Dutch WSR (Keyword: “energy valley”) will use synergies in the energy sector actively by combining available expertise and

38 EU-Kommission, Der Energiebinnenmarkt, 2002; Büros für Technikfolgenabschätzung, Fossile Energiereserven (nur

Erdöl und Erdgas) und mögliche Versorgungsengpässe aus Europäischer Perspektive Endbericht, Vorstudie im Auf-trag des Deutschen Bundestages, des Ausschusses für Bildung, Technik und Technikfolgenabschätzung vorgelegt

existing activities. Collaboration between industry, knowledge insti-tutions and public authorities will engender a highly innovative cli-mate in which the development of expertise and initiatives in the field of sustainable energy can go hand-in-hand with the expansion of economic activities. The offshore wind energy started in the Danish WSR in 2002 with the completion of the first large-scale offshore wind farm in the North Sea, near Horns Rev. This project is sited 14-20 km into the sea, west of Blåvands Huk, and repre-sents the first phase of a large-scale Danish effort to produce elec-tricity from offshore wind turbines. The project is the first step of Danish Government’s ambitious energy plan to install a total off-shore capacity of 4.000 MW in Danish waters by 2030.

The German region will lose their competence as important energy region. Due to abandonment of several nuclear power plants in WSR and lack of plants to substitute these capacities, the region will lose capacities and jobs in energy services. As opposed to the Dutch region, in the German WSR the headquarters and decision-makers of the energy sectors, who could improve the energy com-petence on conversational sources, are missing.

Key perspectives for German WSR are the plans for exploiting offshore wind energy in the North Sea. An essential advantage of the offshore wind energy are the stronger and steadier wind speeds in comparison to onshore usages which can lead to an ap-proximately 40% higher energy gain. Several forecasts show a wide variation of possibilities and benefits because technological and economic viability is still uncertain. Besides, numerous other interests (shipping, fisheries, defence and nature conservation) all have the effect of reducing the calculated potential in practice. Un-der the overall management of the German government (Ministry for the Environment) a plan has been developed to utilise offshore wind energy that takes nature conservation into account. There are already applications for offshore capacities of more than 25,000 MW by 2006 in the German North Sea and more than 60,000 MW in total. Good operating experience has already been gained with 2 - 2.5 MW turbines and 5 MW turbines already running.

In the context of the offshore-investments first economic analysis calculates with an employment impact of about 11,000 jobs by the installation as well as 2,000 jobs by the business. The WSR could benefit from both employment impacts (installation and business) in parts, in the long term view particularly most by business and maintenance from some port locations (like Cuxhaven, Emden or Husum). 39

39 DEWI, NIW, Niedersächsische Energieagentur: Untersuchung der wirtschaftlichen und energiewirtschaftlichen Effekte

von Bau und Betrieb von Offshore-Windparks in der Nordsee auf das Land Niedersachsen, 2001; http://www.offshore-

Table 40: Forecast of sector-specific GDP and employment in utility sector until 2020

Utility Jobs 2000 Jobs 2010 Jobs 2020

Change jobs 2000/ 2020 in %

p.a.

Change GDP 2000/ 2020 in %

p.a. Danish Wadden Sea 700 700 700-790 0.0 - 0.6 2.0


Dutch Wadden Sea 3,400 3,200 3,000 -0.7 2.0


Furthermore the number of refinery locations and employment in the Wadden Sea Region will decline due to stagnating demand for oil products. Due to substitution and more efficient consumption, the alternative fuels (e.g. natural gas) will gain more significance for reasons of air pollution control and increased energy efficiency. Renewable energy sources, especially wind energy, will gain sig-nificant market shares in the years to come.

Table 41: Forecast of total primary energy supply and final en-ergy consumption in Germany

Total primary energy supply (in PJ) 1997 2010 2020

%Change 1997- 2020

Final energy consumption (in PJ) 1997 2010 2020

Total 14,572 14,675 13,808 -5.2 total 9,547 9,751 9,396mineral oil [%] 39.5 40.0 40.7 3.0 households 2,931 2,877 2,734natural gas [%] 20.7 24.0 27.6 33.3 trade / services 1,518 1,541 1,494mineral coal [%] 14.0 11.6 12.4 -11.4 industry 2,454 2,506 2,509brown coal [%] 10.9 9.5 10.4 -4.6 transport 2,645 2,818 2,659nuclear [%] 12.8 11.2 4.2 -67.2 regenerative energy [%] 2.4 3.5 4.4 83.3

Prognos AG 2004 according to Prognos and EWI, Die längerfristige Entwicklung der Energiemärkte im Zeichen von Wettbewerb und Umwelt, in order of the German Ministry of Economics, 1999. Note: PJ Peta Joules

wind.de/show_article.cfm?cid=78; Bundesregierung, Strategie der Bundesregierung zur Windenergienutzung auf See im Rahmen der Nachhaltigkeitsstrategie der Bundesregierung, 2002

Figure 34: Strength and weakness of energy industry

Strengths

Combination of coastal locations, and port capacities lead to location advan-tages for new investments in energy capacities.

Wind energy has developed as new, in-creasingly important energy source, WSR has specialised in construction, operation and servicing of wind energy plants

New perspectives for off-shore plant in North Sea

Production of biomass and renewable resources are forming alternatives for agriculture sector

Weaknesses

The abandonment of nuclear power in German WSR will cut about 1,400 jobs in energy sector in long-term view. Lo-cations Brokdorf, Brunsbüttel, Stade and Unterweser are affected.

WSR has gained competition advantage in operating energy generation, but the region has less competence in manag-ing and controlling this sector. WSR’s energy sector is managed mostly from outside the region.

Prognos AG 2004

4.6 Harbour industry


Port and logistic sectors have a high regional economic relevance. Every twelfth job in Wadden Sea Region depends directly or indirectly on port activities.

High relevance of ports for chemical, energy and food industry.

Growth potential is seen in container-segment and emerging markets in China/Eastern Europe. Forecast 2015: high growth in container handling Hamburg, Bremerhaven, slow growth on break-bulk and bulk goods

Ports are specialised in different cargo groups. Lower competition of Wadden Sea ports among each other, but with western North Sea ports (Rotterdam, Antwerp)

New container terminal „Jade-Weser-Port“ in Wilhelmshaven with 18 m channel depth will come into the market. About 2,000 - 4,000 new jobs will expected.

Branch profile

The sector port and maritime logistics is to be separated into two main segments: The inland waterway transportation supplying the hinterland of the Wadden Sea and maritime shipping, which plays the superior role for the Wadden Sea Region. A third segment of shipping traffic is that of maritime passenger traffic, which is impor-tant for supplying the islands of the Wadden Sea and the tourism sector. The supply chain of the sector includes physical transport of goods, cargo handling and storage and picking of goods.

The ports are specialised in different cargo groups. Large ports like Hamburg and Bremerhaven represent all-round ports with cargo capacities for all main kinds of goods. Smaller ports, like Emden (cars), Brunsbüttel (crude oil), are specialised in specific products. The main competition between ports does not take place between Wadden Sea ports, but rather between Wadden Sea ports and the main ports in western European, like Rotterdam, Antwerp, Zee-brugge or Amsterdam.

The port and maritime sector has a significant economic impor-tance for the Wadden Sea Region. About 100,000 jobs in the re-gion depend directly on the port and shipping industry. Additionally about 100,000 jobs in other preliminary and downstream maritime sectors could be counted as indirect jobs in the Wadden Sea Re-gion (see following table). Every twentieth job (approx. 5%) de-pends directly or indirectly on the port industry of the Wadden Sea Region. Including Hamburg, even every twelfth job is port-based in the region.

Table 42: Direct and indirect regional economic relevance of ports

Port Direct employment impact Indirect employment impact

Hamburg 57,500 76,300 Bremerhaven/Bremen 37,000 24,700 Wilhelmshaven 1,000 200 Brunsbüttel n.a. n.a. Brake 1,400 300 Emden 1,500 300 Esbjerg (DK) ~ 3,600 * ~ 3,600 * Delfzijl / Eemshaven (NL) 1,800 1,100 Harlingen (NL) 550 840 Den Helder (NL) 1,150 760 total 105,500 108,000

Prognos AG 2004 according to Cowi 2003 *; Planco, Schlussbericht 2003, to havenraad.nl, Zentralverband der deutschen Seehafenbetriebe e.V., Port of Esbjerg. SEOW report, Note: Employment effects of Bremerhaven contain common employment effects of Bremen and Bremerhaven. Direct employment effects with occupation in following sectors: port sector and port activitiese industry. Indirect employment effects: Suppliers for port economy and induced income effect.

Sector development

The North Sea ports benefit from high export rates and export ac-tivities of the German, Dutch and Danish industry. In spite of the weak economic development since 2000 the turnover of goods in-creased continuously. In 2002 the eleven main ports of the WSR had a turnover of 155 mill. tons. During 1992 and 2002 the ports registered an increase of turnover volume of 36% (see Table 43). Particularly the Wadden Sea ports grew faster than their key com-petitors.

Basically the ports of Hamburg (increase of turnover volume: 1992-2002: 30%), Bremerhaven (109%) and Emden (89%) ac-counted most for the total increase of traffic volume during this pe-riod. The ports of Cuxhaven (-5%), Brunsbüttel (-4%) and Esbjerg40 (-3%) have remained largely unchanged over the last ten years in terms of turnover of goods. The other German and Dutch ports in the Wadden Sea Region have grown slowly. Par-ticularly Wilhelmshaven has lost market shares in the port competi-tion by fall of turnover (10%) between 2000 and 2002.

Driving force has been the container traffic in recent years, whereas bulk good traffic volume (esp. crude oil, ores, coal) has lost market shares. As a result of the terrorist attacks of September 11th 2001 the export traffic volume to America has declined strongly.

40 The port of Esbjerg connects Harwich (GB) by ferry route for passangers, which also is important for transportation of

goods across the North Sea.

Table 43: Key data of WSR ports and main competition ports

Turnover of goods total in mill. tons

Share of cargo goods in % Specialisation

1992 2000 2002 1992/02

[%] Container Break bulk

Bulk cargo

Categories of cargo

Hamburg 64.8 76.9 86.7 33.8 44 14 42 containers, food, ore,

coal, chemical

Bremerhaven 16.0 30.3 33.4 108.8 73 26 1 containers, cars, food/fish, steel

Wilhelmshaven 31.6 43.4 38.8 22.8 1 1 98 oil, coal, chemical Brunsbüttel 7.9 7.7 7.6 -3.8 0 0 100 oil

Brake 4.7 5.5 5.0 6.4 1 31 62 corn, feeding stuff,

timber Emden 1.8 3.4 3.4 88.9 0 60 36 cars, timber, ore Cuxhaven 1.3 1.4 1.2 -4.9 11 60 28 roro, cars, steel, fish Esbjerg (DK) * 4.5 4.1 4.4 -3.1 39 6 40 containers, fish Delfzijl/Eems. (NL) ** 3.3 3.4 3.4 1.8 1 25 74 coal, salts, food

Harlingen (NL) ** 0.6 1.0 1.1 79.7 - - 92 salt, potatoes, sand,

gravel

Den Helder (NL) ** 0.1 0.1 0.2 41.6 - - - Navy, off-shore oil in-

dustry

total Wadden Sea ports 137 177 185 35.5 36 14 50

Amsterdam (NL) 49.2 44.6 50.3 2.2 1 11 88 ore, coal, feeding stuff,

food, chemicals

Rotterdam (NL) 291.6 318.6 322.1 10.5 20 6 74 oil, ore, coal, food, corn, containers

Antwerp (B) 103.6 130.5 131.6 27.0 30 20 50 ore, steel, paper, con-

tainers Zeebrugge (B) 33.4 35.4 32.9 -1.5 27 45 28 natural gas, food, cars

Prognos AG 2004 according to Planco, Schlussbericht WSR 2003, to havenraad.nl, Zentralverband der deutschen Seehafenbetriebe e.V., Port of Esbjerg. Note: *data Esbjerg turnover of goods in 1998 (not 1992) ** data Dutch ports – turnover of goods in 1996 (not 1992)

The German ports Hamburg, Bremerhaven/Bremen play a Euro-pean and internationally important role. Both ports have increased their market share against the western ports. Particularly the port of Hamburg benefits mostly from the dynamic development in the container segment. Key advantage of Hamburg’s port is its func-tion as bridgehead for the Baltic regions caused by the closeness to Lübeck. In the North Sea area the seaports are building the so-called "Hamburg-Antwerp Range". They are particularly prominent in the competition with Rotterdam and Antwerp.


Innovations in terms of information and communication technology (ICT) and the rationalisation of turnover and storage processes has moved into port activities and shipping. Information technology has already established its powerful position in the port and mari-time industry as well as global logistics systems.

Up to 2015 the growth capacities for new port enlargements in the Wadden Sea Regions are limited. The main ports in the container

segment Hamburg (Altenwerder) and Bremerhaven (CT 4) will reach their expansion and management limits. A big chance for new port enlargement will be the so-called Jade-Weser-Port in Wilhelmshaven. The Jade-Weser-Port will expand capacities for container trade in the Wadden Sea Region (first step with max. container capacity: 2.7 mill. TEU). Lower Saxony and Bremen will create a new container terminal with a channel depth of 18 m for new generation ships. The investment of one billion € will help to safeguard jobs in this region. Expert opinion calculates an em-ployment impact of 1,900 to 3,800 direct and indirect jobs.

Outlook

With the increase of world trade in 2004, the turnover of goods will increase further in the Wadden Sea seaports over the next years. In general the traffic volume will increase in future due to high ex-ports, globalisation and international connection of industry. The traffic volume of goods will increase in Denmark, Germany and Netherlands until 2015 between 23% and 39%. Especially the trade with East Asian ports and China will generate new impulses for the Wadden Sea Region. The container segment will continue its fast growing process with annual growth rates of 4% until 2015.

International transport of goods will change from fragmented ap-proach by respective players to integrated logistics systems. In fu-ture ports will play a more active role as value adders. A growing range of value-added activities in logistics will be concentrated in and around port areas.

Table 44: Forecast of goods transport 2002-2015

Performance total in bill. tkm

Modal shares of road

Modal shares of rail

Modal shares of inland waterways

Development of total and modal goods transport 2002 2015 rate in % 2002 2015 2002 2015 2002 2015 Denmark 19.3 23.7 22.8 89.4 89.1 10.6 10.9 n.a. n.a.

Germany 500 690 38.0 72.2 72.4 14.8 15.4 13 12.3

Netherlands 96.9 134 38.5 54.1 51.5 4.2 6.0 41.7 42.5

Prognos AG 2004, European Transport Report 2002

Regional ports, which have strongly specialised in break bulk and bulk good segments, have to orientate towards new transport chains. Some ports already have expanded their portfolio by new segments like containers (Bremerhaven), RoRo-traffic (Cuxhaven and Esbjerg41) or automobiles (Emden). Up to 2015 four ports in

41 Cp. Cowi; 2003: The port of Esbjerg is the biggest RoRo-harbour in Denmark, indicated by national market share of 64%

in 2001.

the Wadden Sea Region will have the best perspectives for growth of goods turnover. Projections of cargo handling account an an-nual increase of freight transport at North Sea harbours of 1.7% on average.42 The ports of Nordenham (increase 2000-2015: 63%), Hamburg (50%), Bremerhaven (37%) and Cuxhaven (37%) will benefit most from new cargo. This growth is mostly based upon high growth rates in the container segment, which is significantly higher than growth perspectives of total freight transportation. The port of Wilhelmshaven has to be regarded from two different per-spectives. By extrapolation of existing cargo capabilities the vol-ume of freight transport will decline by 13% up to 2015, because of declining imports of crude oil in future. Considering the new Jade-Weser-Port with expected container capacities of 1.8 mill. TEU in 201543, the cargo volume in Wilhelmshaven will increase about 29% up to 2015. Due to the enlargement of the Jade-Weser Port, the port of Wilhelmshaven can participate in the mainstream of transport growth in Wadden Sea area.

Table 45: Forecast of freight transport by harbours

[Freight transport in mill. tons] 2000 2015 Change in %

Rotterdam (NL) 319.9 491.0 53 Hamburg 85.8 128.0 50 Antwerp (B) 49.8 83.0 67 Wilhelmshaven, incl. Jade-Weser-Port * 43.4 55.8 * 29 * Bremerhaven 30.3 41.7 37 Brunsbüttel 7.9 8.3 5 Brake 5.6 6.4 14 Emden 3.9 4.3 10 Nordenham 1.8 2.9 63 Cuxhaven 1.4 1.9 37

Prognos AG 2004 according to Planco, Schlussbericht WSR, 2003 Note: The freight volume in Wilhelmshaven will decline without JWP until 2015 cause of negative prospects of do-mestic crude oil processing by on foreign trade. *Expected container capacity of 1.8 mills. TEU in 2015 and average volume of 10 tons per TEU.

For smaller harbours in Wadden Sea area, like Esbjerg or Bruns-büttel, there are still growth perspectives in offshore activities. The installation of offshore wind energy plants will gain, temporally dur-ing construction periods and enduring, new cargo and chances of new added value for harbours. The competition with the West-European ports, like Rotterdam and Antwerp, will increase until 2015. Stimulated by new expansion-projects, like the Maasvlakte, the western competitors will gain faster (Antwerp 67%, Rotterdam 53%) new cargo than most of the Wadden Sea harbours.

42 Cp. ISL, et al, Entwicklungstendenzen der dt. Nordseehäfen bis zum Jahr 2015, 2000 43 According to NIW, BAW, Wirtschaftliche Entwicklungsperspektiven des Jade-Weser-Raums unter besonderer

Berücksichtigung des geplanten Jade-Weser-Ports, 2001. Note: TEU=Twenty-foot-container Equivalant Units

Due to rationalisation in the harbour and shipping industry a crea-tion of new jobs in a considerable size is not being expected in harbour and logistic sectors. Between 2000 and 2010 the number of employment in transportation and communication sector will al-most stagnate in Denmark, Germany and Netherlands on a com-mon level of 2.75 mill. jobs.44

Figure 35: Strength and weakness of harbour sector

Strength

Three key harbours (Hamburg, Bremerhaven and Wilhelmshaven) strengthen the trading and production function of WSR, smaller ports benefits by synergies

Container segment in WSR has growth perspectives, especially thanks to East-Asia trade

Existing port related industry: e.g.Delfzijl (chemical cluster), Den Helder and Esbjerg (off shore), Wil-helmshaven (oil)

Jade-Weser-Port will perform the logis-tic capacities in fast growing segment of container handling, new growth per-spectives for Wihlemshaven

Smaller harbours in WSR have occu-pied interesting niche markets (auto-motive, feeding stuff)

Weaknesses

Missing common harbour master plan and variety of the individual harbour agencies promote competition within the region and weakens competitive posi-tion to Western Harbours (e.g. Rotter-dam)

Due to distortion of competition be-tween the three states (among others environmental regulations) the competi-tion conditions for ship owners, port agencies are unbalanced

The hinterland traffic infrastructure (motorways, railroad) in WSR has defi-cits, traffic connections following the coastline requires detours and are time expensive

Partly low diversity of port related in-dustry (e.g. Delfzijl, Harlingen, Wil-helmshaven, Emden)

Prognos AG 2004

44 Cp. Prognos AG, Prognos World-Report 2002, Industrial Countries 2000-2010

5. Perspectives in service sectors

5.1 Overview of service sectors

In recent years the transition towards a so-called modern service society dominated the economic development in all highly indus-trialised countries, thus also in the Wadden Sea Region. This tran-sition does not directly result in a de-industrialisation of industry sectors but the strong increasing demand of companies and con-sumers for services will make the tertiary sector the driving force of economic growth in the future.

Today most of the employees in the Wadden Sea Region work for service industry. Even so, in all sub-regions of the Wadden Sea Region the share of employees in tertiary sector is below national level. The comparison of regional employment shares to national values indicates the high specialisation of Dutch labour market in service activities. The Netherlands is the country with the highest share of employment in the tertiary sector in the European Union. Hence the Dutch Wadden Sea Region is characterised by a high share of employment in service sectors (71%), which could be judged as a good precondition for future structural changes.

Figure 36: Comparison of service employment shares

Service Industry - Share of Employees(as of 2000)

74,1%

68,4%

72,2%

71,0%

65,0%

66,6%

60,0% 62,0% 64,0% 66,0% 68,0% 70,0% 72,0% 74,0% 76,0%

Netherlands

Germany

Denmark

All Nation Wadden Sea Region


The service sector can be separated into nine main sub-branches. Two categories could be excluded in this approach be-cause of their weak regional economic relevance in the Wadden Sea Region. The sectors “financial institution, insurance” and “other public and private services” are blinded out at this point.

The following industries are of special importance for regional em-ployment: wholesale and retail (approx 15% share of total em-

ployment), health & social activities (11-16%), transport & communication (6-7%) and business services (7-14%). These four key sectors provide about 60% to 70% of total employment in service sectors and about 50% of total employment in the Wadden Sea Region.

Table 46: Share of employment in service sectors by sub-sectors

Denmark Germany Netherlands

Share of employment [2000] WSR National WSR National WSR National

wholesale and retail 14.6% 15.4% 17.6% 15.6% 14.4% 16.3%

hotels & restaurants 3.4% 2.9% 4.5% 4.4% 2.6% 2.7%

transport & communication 7.0% 6.6% 5.5% 5.4% 5.8% 6.7%

financial institutions, insurance 1.7% 2.8% 3.2% 3.3% 3.5% 4.5%

business services 6.3% 9.7% 6.9% 11.4% 13.8% 16.3%

public administration 5.5% 5.9% 9.7% 7.1% 8.1% 7.6%

education 7.1% 7.3% 2.3% 5.2% 6.6% 5.3%

health & social activities 16.4% 16.7% 10.8% 9.7% 12.8% 11.0%

other public and private services 4.6% 5.0% 4.4% 6.2% 3.5% 3.7%

total service sectors 66.6% 72.2% 65.0% 68.4% 71.0% 74.1%


Driving forces for economic growth and employment are more or less five main sub-sectors of the service industry. The sectors business services, hotels and restaurants, health and social activities, wholesale and retail as well as transport and com-munication (especially in Germany) have been characterised by high growth rates of employment during the last 10 years. These sub-sectors indicate an above average employment growth com-pared to the overall level of the service sector. In contrast to this, the remaining sub-sector education achieved growth rates below the average for the service sector and public administration downsized staff respectively (see Figure 37).

In the Wadden Sea Region business services is the fastest growing service sector in terms of employment, followed by ho-tels & restaurants as well as health and social activities. Significant differences in dynamics could be determined between the three nations of the Wadden Sea Region.

Figure 37: Annual growth rates of employment in service sectors during the nineties

-4,0 -2,0 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0

Business Services

Hotels & Restaurants

Health & Social Activities

Retail/Trade

Transport &Communication

Education

Public administrationDutch WaddenseaGerman WaddenseaDanish Waddensea

Danish Wadden Sea [1993-2000 in %p.a.]

German Wadden Sea * [1998-2000 in % p.a.]

Dutch Wadden Sea [1990-2000 in % p.a.]

Hotels & Restaurants 2.3 Business Services 9.7 Business Services 5.0Business Services 1.7 Transport & communication 4.1 Hotels & Restaurants 4.9Wholesale and retail 1.4 Hotels & Restaurants 4.0 Health & Social Activities 2.5Health & Social Activities 0.9 Health & Social Activities 2.6 Wholesale and retail 2.3Education 0.1 Education 1.9 Transport & Communication 1.3Transport & Communication -0.7 Wholesale and retail 1.4 Education 1.3Public administration -2.9 Public administration -0.6 Public administration -1.2service sector total 0.7 service sector total 3.6 service sector total 2.2

Prognos AG 2004 according to official national statistics. * Note: The change of industry employment in German Wadden Sea Region refers to the period 1998-2000. A long-term view, which is not possible for the German Wadden Sea due to changing statistical classifi-cation during the 90ies, would indicate more consistent development of sector-specific em-ployment. High growth rates in the German Wadden Sea Region 1998-2000 are attributed on the booming economy in 2000.

The dynamic of employment growth (0.7% p.a.) in service sectors of the Danish Wadden Sea Region is significantly slower than in the German and Dutch parts. In the Danish Wadden Sea Region the fastest growing sectors were hotels & restaurants (2.3% p.a.), business services (1.7% p.a.) and trade (1.4% p.a.). The sectors transport & communication and public administration even shrank during the nineties.

In the German Wadden Sea Region the development is compa-rable to changes in the Dutch part. Business services are the fast-est growing sector, followed by transport and communication, ho-tels & restaurants and health and social activities. These sectors reached annual growth rates between 2% and 5%. Like the Danish and Dutch region, employment in the public administration sector shrank by 0.6% per annum.

The future perspective for the service sector in the Wadden Sea- region is generally positive. GDP will rise by more than 2% per an-num in the total Wadden Sea Region. As opposed to the industrial sectors, the expected growth rates up to 2020 will be high enough to trigger off significant job effects (see Table 47). In the Dutch Wadden Sea Region employment in the service industry will in-crease by more than 20% up to 2020. On the other hand in the German and Danish regions the expected employment effects are significantly lower than the Dutch region.

Table 47: Forecast of sector-specific GDP and employment in service sectors until 2020

service sectors jobs 2000 jobs 2010 jobs 2020change jobs in

% p.a. change GDP in

% p.a. Danish Wadden Sea 57,700 60,300 61,750 0.3% 2.5%

German Wadden Sea 315,100 338,500 345,350 0.5% 2.1%

Dutch Wadden Sea 328,000 369,200 403,800 1.0% 2.4%


The following sub-chapters we will give a closer look at the seven sub-sectors of the service industry. These sectors are:

• Wholesale and retail

• Business services

• Health care and social activities

• Public administration

• Transport and communication and

• Education and

• Tourism

5.2 Wholesale and retail


About 172,000 employees resp. 16% of total employees work in the trade sector.

Trade is the largest sector in the German and Dutch Wadden Sea Regions.

Wholesale and commission trade create strong clusters due to the logistic centres at the ports, especially in the metropolitan-area of Hamburg and around Esbjerg.

Wholesale industry is threatened by rationalisation along the supply-chain.

Heterogeneous local development in retail-sector due to significant differences in national economic-forecasts, local purchasing power, tourism and migration.

Demographic development and polarisation of the society are strongly affecting the retail industry.

Bipolar consumers: Discount concepts and high-quality concepts will gain mar-ket shares simultaneously.

Trade industry will grow by small rates. Up to 2020 about 5,000 new jobs will be cre-ated. In the retail sector there will be an increase of part-time jobs caused by a con-tinuing concentration process and larger shopping spaces.

Sector profile

Regarding employment, the trade sector is the largest sector in the Dutch and German Wadden Sea Region. In the Danish Wad-den Sea Region trading is the second largest economic sector. The trading industry consists of three main groups:

The wholesale and commission trade, which assumes a mediator role between manufacturer and retailer.

Retail trade, which is mainly characterized by trade of food and clothes to final consumers, and

• Sale and repair of motor vehicles.

In this chapter we will focus on the wholesale and commission trade and retail-trade. The subsector sale and repair of motor vehi-cles can be faded out because of a relatively low regional rele-vance. The retail and wholesale trade considerably differ in condi-tions of sale and customer groups, but otherwise have a lot of in-fluencing factors in common. The development of both sectors has been characterised by an increase of competition, concentration and the introduction of new sales concepts, for instance inter-net shopping or manufacturers increasing direct marketing activi-ties. Due to strong exports of the industry, external trade devel-oped considerably better than the overall trade sector.

The wholesale and commission trade is a fairly low profile eco-nomic activity but is a large and diverse sector of the economy playing a vital intermediary role both within the supply chain and between manufacturers and the marketplace and is becoming ever more sophisticated in the range and value of the services it pro-vides. The industry embraces all purchasing and temporary stor-age activities relating to goods which are to be resold, generally in large quantities, to retailers or other wholesalers, to manufacturers and others for further processing or to professional users, including trades people. In performing this task, wholesalers fulfil three im-portant roles in the economy. They provide businesses a nearby source of goods made by many different manufacturers; they pro-vide manufacturers with a manageable number of customers, whilst allowing their products to reach a large number of users; and they allow manufacturers, businesses, institutions, retailers and governments to devote minimal time and resources to transac-tions.

The retail trade is one of the Wadden Sea Region’s largest em-ploying industries. The industry represents the final link in the dis-tribution channel between the consumer and the product manufac-turer for the majority of consumer goods. Traditionally retailing does not in itself create goods but increasingly it is endeavouring to add value to its products and services to enhance them in the eyes of consumers. As such, retailing has become an increasingly dynamic, competitive and complex sector involving a range of company types, of varying scale, operating in a variety of product sectors and through a diverse and changing network of outlets and selling techniques.

Figure 38: Share of employment in wholesale and retail sector

Trade Industry - Share of Employees(as of 2000)

16,3%

15,6%

15,4%

14,4%

17,6%

14,6%

0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0% 8,0% 10,0% 12,0% 14,0% 16,0% 18,0% 20,0%

Netherlands

Germany

Denmark


Prognos AG 2004

Sector development

Wholesale and retail: The development of the wholesale and commission trade usually is very much aligned with the develop-ment of the national economy. In addition to this general depend-ence, two main factors have influenced the development of the wholesale and commission trade sector in recent years: The liber-alisation of world trade and globalisation on the one hand and on the other hand the increasing national competition in all sec-tors that are supplied by wholesale companies. The increasing competition forces all sectors to save along the supply chain. The concentration process enables large companies to buy their goods directly from producers without any support from a whole-saler. Additionally the industry is increasingly organising their sup-ply-chain via B2B platforms (business-to-business platforms) on the internet.

Table 48: Development of employment in trade sector during the nineties by business and by region

Trade Wholesale Retail

Denmark 1993 2000 Growth% 1993 2000 Growth% 1993 2000 Growth%

Whole Country 382.436 423.946 10,9% 150.401 167.325 11,3% 173.907 190.879 9,8%

Danish Wadden Sea 11.297 12.610 11,6% 3.506 4.036 15,1% 5.788 6.400 10,6%

Germany 1998 2000 Growth% 1998 2000 Growth% 1998 2000 Growth%

Whole Country 5.870.000 6.040.000 2,9% 1.709.000 1.710.000 0,1% 3.331.000 3.441.000 3,3%

German Wadden Sea 90.835 93.313 2,7% 22.485 23.948 6,5% 54.109 54.563 0,8%

Nordfriesland 9.206 9.276 0,8% 1.460 1.569 7,5% 6.473 6.455 -0,3%

Dithmarschen 5.410 5.385 -0,5% 348 370 6,3% 4.043 3.964 -2,0%

Steinburg 5.031 5.225 3,9% 1.399 1.250 -10,7% 2.829 3.102 9,7%

Pinneberg 16.835 18.596 10,5% 7.322 8.603 17,5% 7.439 7.859 5,6%

LK Stade 8.890 9.121 2,6% 2.416 2.537 5,0% 4.943 4.957 0,3%

Cuxhaven 6.679 6.852 2,6% 1.227 1.290 5,1% 4.363 4.404 0,9%

Bremerhaven 8.848 7.918 -10,5% 1.931 1.919 -0,6% 5.108 4.169 -18,4%

LK Wesermarsch 2.523 2.608 3,4% 441 456 3,4% 1.648 1.688 2,4%

Wilhelmshaven 3.965 3.971 0,2% 582 612 5,2% 2.765 2.744 -0,8%

LK Friesland 4.033 4.241 5,2% 688 755 9,7% 2.612 2.754 5,4%

LK Wittmund 2.132 2.128 -0,2% 495 475 -4,0% 1.329 1.341 0,9%

LK Aurich 7.926 8.211 3,6% 1.807 1.669 -7,6% 4.777 5.151 7,8%

Emden 2.590 2.714 4,8% 769 718 -6,6% 1.383 1.484 7,3%

LK Leer 6.767 7.067 4,4% 1.600 1.725 7,8% 4.397 4.491 2,1%

Netherlands 1995 2.000 Growth% 1995 2000 Growth% 1995 2000 Growth%

Whole Country 781.200 919.800 17,7% 342.000 413.100 20,8% 439.200 506.700 15,4%

Dutch Wadden Sea 56.600 66.200 17,0% 18.800 21.600 14,9% 37.700 44.500 18,0%

Groningen 20.200 22.800 12,9% 6.300 7.000 11,1% 13.900 15.800 13,7%

Fryslân 22.300 26.800 20,2% 7.200 8.500 18,1% 15.000 18.200 21,3%

Kop v. Noord-Holl. 14.100 16.600 17,7% 5.300 6.100 15,1% 8.800 10.500 19,3%Prognos AG 2004 according to Statistikbanken Danmark; Statistisches Amt für Hamburg und Schleswig-Holstein; Niedersächsisches Landesamt für Statistik, and COWI: Report and assessment of socio economic data for the Danish Wadden Sea Region.

Therefore, despite considerable growth rates in industry sectors, the turnover of the national wholesale business in Germany has only slightly risen since 1995 and the number of wholesale-companies and the number of jobs has even decreased. The Dutch and Danish wholesale industry benefited from a period in which the national economies enjoyed the highest growth rates for decades. In terms of employment the wholesale sector grew strongly by annual rates of 1.6% (Denmark) respectively 4.2% (Netherlands).

In the whole Wadden Sea Region the wholesale sector recorded above national average growth rates in employment during the last years. The sector grew particularly in the Dutch part of the Wad-den Sea Region by about 3% annually.

Retail trade: Just like the wholesale trade the retail trade is highly dependent on the overall economic development. In Denmark and in the Netherlands the retail business was boosted by the booming economy in recent years.

In Germany however the retail trade suffered from a period of stagnation over the past years. Trading of food and clothes de-creased significantly. The major reasons are clearly seen in a stagnating economy, rising unemployment and the consumer’s lack of confidence in the future, which lowers purchasing power or ties it up in savings.

Regarding the major trends in retailing, currently it is pricing that dominates competition. Even the upper-income clientele shows the so-called “smart-shopper-phenomenon”, waiting for bargain of-fers even in the high-quality and high-price segments. On the dis-tribution side a concentration process and the trend towards lar-ger selling spaces has been characteristic of the last decade. Large shopping malls outside towns gained significant market shares while locations in city centres lost. Especially small and owner-run businesses are threatened by this concentration and decentralization. But in recent years the rising number of new downtown malls (e.g. at train stations) underlines a new trend back to the city centres.

Regarding the employment figures the retail sector in the Dutch part of the Wadden Sea Region increased strongly by 18% and considerably above national average between 1995 and 2000. In contrast to the national development in the Netherlands, the retail business is even the driving force of the trade sector. Especially in Fryslân and Kop v. Noord Holland employment in the sector grew significantly by 21.3% respectively 19.3% between 1995 and 2000. In the Danish Wadden Sea Region the considerable growth of 10.6% (1993 - 2000) was slightly above national average. The de-velopment in the German section of the Wadden Sea Region is in sharp contrast to the neighbouring countries: The growth rate of

0.8% (1998 – 2000) is clearly below the national average of 3.3%. Also the growth rates of the German sub-regions show a wide range from minus 18% in Bremerhaven (within 3 years!) up to plus 9.7% in Steinburg.


The industry is currently passing through a period of profound change characterised by high investment, increasing use of infor-mation technology and the continuous search for increased pro-ductivity, cost reductions and new market formats. The sector has long been a major innovator. The use of electronic data inter-change, laser and self scanning, and other point-of-sale equipment is now a standard feature. The use of loyalty cards and the provi-sion of financial and other services, driven by consumer desires for one-stop shopping and convenience, have also involved the intro-duction of sophisticated computer-based systems. As the main outlet for a significant volume of regionally processed goods, re-tailers are also in the fore in establishing partnerships with their suppliers and were early innovators in the supply chain logistics now being widely adopted throughout the industry to reduce opera-tional costs and to increase service levels.

Retailers remain under great pressure to create new ideas and to introduce more added value products and services into their op-erations to increase turnover and margins. This trend is likely to in-tensify as the age profile of the population continues to get older. For many retailers, diversification into home shopping via interac-tive television, the internet and old fashion catalogue sales and into areas like financial services are the latest initiatives to make retail brands more appealing to customers as consumer demand continues to shift steadily away from goods per se and towards services. Multi-channel retailing, entailing the use of many retail formats is likely to emerge as an attractive proposition as it pro-vides one of the few high growth opportunities. In the following there are some examples for these trends:

Business-to-Business platforms offer new possibilities for the integration of producers and customers and favour co-operation between smaller companies. B2B platforms are at the same time opportunity and risk for the wholesale sector. Today most of the B2B platforms are run without the participa-tion of wholesalers.

Innovation in the retail trade is characterized by increasing use of information and communication technology, e.g. consumer databases, CRM-systems, supply-chain manage-ment systems etc. Additional services (like finance services, delivery, etc) will play a major role in the future.

Electronic ommerce records high growth rates, but the total B2B turnover will remain on a relatively low level.


Wholesale trade: In the German Wadden Sea Region the mari-time hinterland of Hamburg along the river Elbe is a key location for the wholesale industry. Advantaged by the closeness to the market area of Hamburg, modern capacities of cargo handling and the concentration of agriculture and food-processing industry have formed a leading cluster of wholesale industry in Stade and Pinne-berg. Pinneberg mainly benefits from being location of one of Germany’s biggest retail companies. About 28,000 employees are working in this sub-region, which represents every sixth employee in the trade industry in the whole Wadden Sea Region.

Retail trade: As expected, the retail business activities regard-ing turnover and employment are mostly located at several re-gional centres in the Wadden Sea Region. Cities like Groningen, Leeuwarden, Wilhelmshaven, Bremerhaven or Esbjerg have an important function of supplying their catchment area with goods of medium and long-term demand.

But the growth rates in the retail trade of the single sub-regions of the German Wadden Sea Region do not affirm the apprehension of disappearing retail facilities in rural areas. While medium-sized centres like Bremerhaven and Wilhelmshaven are facing a (in case of Bremerhaven dramatically) decline of jobs in the retail sector, some rural districts like the municipalities of Aurich, Friesland, Steinburg and Pinneberg have created a significant number of jobs in retail business during the last years. In some sub-regions the re-tail-sector again reflects the development of the local economy (e.g. Bremerhaven, Wilhelmshaven, Danish Wadden Sea Region).

An important influencing factor that can stabilize the retail sector in the rural areas of the Wadden Sea Region is tourism. Tourists are mainly in the market for convenience goods, but also luxury prod-ucts and regional specialities. In general, they satisfy their demand at local stores and therefore they are an important customer group, especially for small and owner-run businesses and centre loca-tions. Taking the sub-region of Nordfriesland as an example the turnover per inhabitant of the retail-trade sector is significantly above national average with an index of 130.2 (Hamburg: 120.1). while the purchasing-power figure for the region is considerably below average at 96.0 index-points (Hamburg: 109.3).45

45 Source: Gesellschaft für Konsumforschung: GfK Basiszahlen 2003.

In the Danish part of the Wadden Sea Region, the retail sector benefits from a relatively high disposable income in the region. Al-though the growth in family income in the Wadden Sea Region was equivalent to the national level, low housing costs make the disposable income more than 40% higher than for example at the County of Copenhagen.46

Outlook

Wholesale trade: A significant part of wholesale trade is directly connected to port activities. The positive development of the ports will strengthen the perspective of the wholesale trade in the region. A growth in turnover and (slightly) in jobs can be expected from foreign trade. The rising volume of world trade will have a positive impact on companies specialised in multinational trade, while wholesalers offering national services will face a shrinking market and a reduction in employment. But even in the multina-tional trade the market share of the national wholesalers is in dan-ger because of direct trading by large national companies or im-porters.

The traditional role of the wholesale sector as intermediaries or “middle men” in supplying warehousing and distribution services is still a strong and important one, but it is changing rapidly with the development of new technology and logistics management and the increasingly close relationships in many sectors towards closer supplier/customer relationships. In particular with regard to the wholesale of food and drink and certain types of consumer goods, most of the large retailers now have their own buying and central distribution operations. Manufacturers and retailers are adopting Internet solutions, including networked supply-chain management systems and web-based market places, to integrate their procure-ment, production, logistics and accountancy processes. Such di-rect supply chain co-operation in the distribution process be-tween producers and retailers is posing a threat to traditional wholesalers who are becoming more dependent on a diminishing core of independent retailers.

As well as direct manufacturer-to-retailer arrangements, wholesal-ers are also facing greater competition from other distribution channels including mail order and catalogue sales as well as di-rect sales from the manufacturer to industrial users. Such struc-tural changes in distribution channels are forcing many wholesal-ers to re-examine and re-adjust their strategies for maintaining a competitive edge. In some cases such competition and resulting pressure to lower operating costs is continuing to encourage dis-tributors to merge with or to acquire other firms in a steady process

46 Source: COWI: Report and assessment of socio-economic data for the Danish section of the Wadden Sea Region, p. 63.

of consolidation. Wholesalers are also tending to enlarge their role in marketing and finishing or semi-finishing and their logistical functions are diversifying to include stock management or pro-curement for third parties, maintenance and after sales service. In line with these changes, skill requirements are changing and are becoming more technically demanding. Increased competition and structural changes are likely to mean fewer and larger, but more sophisticated and “added value” directed companies, though there is still likely to be a large tail of smaller niche and specialist wholesalers.

Retail trade: The retail-trade is highly dependent on social-trends: The shrinking household sizes – (Rising number of “Singles- and DINKI-households” (Double Income - No Kids), the polariza-tion of the population (more "rich" - more "poor") and the demo-graphic changes of a shrinking and ageing society will have severe effects on the consumer goods markets and on the retail business.

The “customer of tomorrow” will have four major orientations:

Price-orientation (discount shopping, food, electronic goods)

Value-orientation (life-style concepts, e.g. furniture, clothes)

Event-orientation (e.g. shopping-malls)

Convenience-orientation (e.g. gas-stations, coffee-bars)47

Future development in retail trade will face two major trends: A trend towards standardized convenience products and low-budget offers and, at the same time, a trend towards individuali-zation and customers seeking individual, highly specialized prod-ucts of high quality. The result will be an increasing polarization of the markets. The high-quality and the low-price segment will increase simultaneously and the mid-range segment, offering me-dium quality at a medium price will slowly disappear. But neverthe-less a clear segmentation of customers will not be possible any more and is replaced by an increasingly bipolar behaviour of con-sumers. Even value-oriented customers will in some cases behave as smart-shoppers or will use convenience or event-orientated of-fers.

47 See e.g.: Bankgesellschaft Berlin: Einzelhandel in Deutschland, Marktbericht 6, September 2000, p. 4.

Figure 39: Development of the distribution mix of retail-trade 1995 - 2010

30%

44%

9%6% 5% 6%

45%

34%

7%4%

6%4%

Discounter SpecialisedTrade

ConsumerMarkets

DepartmentStores

Online-Trade Direct-Trade/Others

1995

Prognose 2010

Prognos AG according to BBE-Unternehmensberatung GmbH

Regarding the mix of distribution lines the polarization leads to a continuously increasing share of discount and convenience stores, but on the other hand there will remain a stable market for shops offering excellent advisory, service and quality at a high-pricelevel. Especially in the market for convenience goods, new, flexible, midsized chains will be established, often organized as franchise businesses.

The concentration process will continue but there will be a trend back to the city centres. This revival of the downtown locations is supported by value and lifestyle oriented consumers. Additional support comes from national and EU-initiatives for strengthening the old centres. Initiating this trend, major public investment in im-provements to civic squares, parks, open spaces are necessary in order to provide the necessary catalyst to encourage major inves-tors to return to city centres. Ironically, this investment will often be attracted by the improved quality of life and growing appeal of city centre living that will become possible with the passing of more traditional ‘dirty’ industries. A new generation of city centre resi-dents and workers will be drawn to the wide range of retail, enter-tainment, cultural and sporting facilities that are on offer. This city centre renaissance will be helped by the firm planning restrictions placed on new ‘out of town’ shopping centres.

The GDP of the sector will rise, but because of concentration and the increased size of selling spaces employment will not rise simul-taneously. Mainly part time jobs are created, especially in the Netherlands. Until 2020 about 5,000 new (part-time) jobs will be created in the trade industry.

Additionally the retail-sector will be significantly affected by the demographic developments. The low growth of turnover and the stagnation of employment in the German trade industry are there-fore mainly influenced by the expectation of a decline in population that will have first impacts on the markets from the year 2015 on. Despite an expected rise of purchasing power per capita, the shrinking population and a declining share of traditional retail-goods at the expense of households (rising share of services in private consumption) will be further risks for the retail sector.

Table 49: Forecast of sector-specific GDP and employment in trade sector until 2020

Trade / Retail / Wholesale Jobs 2000 Jobs 2010 Jobs 2020

Change jobs in % p.a.

Change GDP in % p.a.

Danish Wadden Sea 12,600 12,600 12,800 0.1% 2.5%


Dutch Wadden Sea 66,300 68,000 71,400 0.4% 2.3%

Prognos AG, World Report 2002

Retail facilities are a decisive factor for the quality of business sites as well as for the attractiveness of city centres and the quality of life of places of residence. Therefore preserving a vital retail sector is an important task especially in cities and regions suffering from migration and structural deficits. In future, gastronomy and leisure as well as cultural facilities are expected to gain further promi-nence for the development and the attractiveness of city centres.48

The cities and municipalities of the region are very heterogeneous in terms of average age of population, migration, economic power or urban structures. Therefore a retail-strategy for the Wadden Sea Region has to be locally adjusted. On the one hand the larger and medium-sized cities have to develop their image as supply and en-tertainment centre for their surrounding regions (e.g. Groningen, Esbjerg, Bremerhaven, Wilhelmshaven). On the other hand every urban-development should be aware of the demographic progno-ses. Particularly in the Wadden Sea Region, which is traditionally in large parts facing an additional problem of migration of young people, the increasing population share of older people will be the most important challenge for the retail business. It will be a short lasting strategy for most of the cities and villages of the re-gion to step into a destructive competition for event and fun-oriented shopping-facilities or to give massive support to agglom-erations of discount stores outside the towns. In the centre of fu-ture concepts will be the task to meet the needs and expectations

48 See Frehn, Michael: Ergebnisse einer Kommunalumfrage „Innenstadt und Freizeitentwicklung“ in deutschen Groß- und

Mittelstädten, Arbeitspapier der Universität Dortmund, Dortmund 2002.

of an aging society.49 Although aged consumers remain a consid-erably heterogeneous segment, the consumer habits of older peo-ple exhibit special characteristics and often differ from those of younger consumers. The consumer behaviour of seniors can be characterized by the following criteria:

Quality consciousness is strongly pronounced

Price sensitivity decreases

Brand consciousness is also pronounced

Traditional products are preferred with high brand loyalty

Health consciousness is high

High affinity for well-known and smaller businesses (e.g. re-garding an additional “communication“ function of retail-facilities for older people)

High preference for additional services in particular presales-counselling and after-sales services

Preference for centre locations

Changes of the consumer habits come about more slowly.

The consumer habits of older people might be a chance for service and quality-oriented retail facilities at the centres. Particularly in structurally weak regions, smaller municipalities can preserve their local retail-facilities by supporting an orientation towards the seg-ment of older people, for instance by initiatives for attractive and accessible cities.

Regarding the major social trends and the relevance of tourism, the cities and villages should concentrate on strengthening the city centres and limit an uncontrolled expansion of shopping spaces. The main fields of activity will be accessibility, architecture, gas-tronomy, leisure and culture facilities, cleanness and the lowering of barriers (bureaucracy, costs, etc.) for retailers and founders of new businesses.

49 See for instance: Knigge, M.; Gruber, K.; Hofmann, J.: Auf dem Prüfstand der Senioren – Alternde Kunden fordern Un-

ternehmen auf allen Ebenen, in: Deutsche Bank Research – Aktuelle Themen, Nr. 278, Juli 2003.

Figure 40: Strength and weakness of retail and wholesale sector

Strengths

Tourism supports economic activities such as retailing

Adaptation of needs to an aging society

Flexibility and adaptability of small and medium-sized businesses

EU-initiatives for strengthening city-centres

Rising volume of world trade will have a positive impact on companies special-ised in multinational trade

Especially for wholesale: Strong re-gional clusters in connection with ports and rising volume of world trade

Weaknesses

Suffering from a period of stagnation (Germany) Low growth rates are ex-pected

Dependency on economic situation and social trends (employment, polari-zation, migration, aging society)

Low volume of future investments ex-pected; Continuing concentration process in the retail sector

Polipolistic structure (problem of initia-tion of common strategies, destructive competition, weak financial basis, low profits)

Especially for wholesale: High competi-tion and price/cost pressure and strong dependence on manufacturer’s distribution strategies.

Prognos AG 2004

5.3 Transport and communication


About 65,000 employees resp. 6% of labour force work in transport and communica-tion industry.

The transport industry of the WSR is associated with the shipping and port industry and trading sector.

Caused by globalisation and increase of traffic volume the sector will grow steadily (0.4% p.a.). Up to 2020 about 5,500 new jobs will be expected.

New innovations to increase the productivity are IT-networking and the automation of technical processes in inventory and cargo handling by robotics.

High growth could be generated for enterprises specialised in supply chain man-agement by taking over companies’ internal logistics services, like storage or picking.

Sector profile

The transport sector includes industries providing transportation of people, cargo, goods, merchandise and products by land, air or sea. The industry covers services of railways, shipping, transporta-tion of airfreight, public and private road passenger traffic, road haulage as well as the pipeline business.

Therefore, the transport sector is one of the most critical issues of concern in the Wadden Sea Region. It impacts on people's access to employment, education and quality of life, and on the viability of businesses. The Wadden Sea Region is definitely specialized within the range of transport and logistics. The share of employees within this sector is above average. The strong position in the transport sector is mostly based on the seaports, which are very important for imports and exports on a national level.

Especially the road long-distance haulage shows a very dynamic development for the 90's. The industry grew on average twice as strongly as the gross domestic product. Today approximately 82% of the traffic capacity is on the road (1991: 76%). This trend might continue, even if political measures like the harmonization of the European rail traffic systems or the introduction of motorway fees slow down this development. Competitive disadvantages of the railway exist particularly concerning time sensitive goods with high value density and small numbers of items.

The telecommunication subsector is influenced by a progressive liberalisation of the post office and telecom markets. The process of market opening and the increase of market participants could prevent a price rise. The market profile is dominated by a demand

for fast, high-quality, reliable and safe communication and informa-tion.

Sector development

Due to the increase of total traffic volume, economic interactions, international trade and the reduction of transport time the transport services result in a very dynamic employment development with about 5,000 new jobs during the nineties. Logistics providers, coastal shipping companies and trucking companies rank among the winners of this industry in general.

Table 50: Development of employment in transport and commu-nication during the nineties

Transport & communication [number of jobs] 1990 2000 Change in % p.a. Danish Wadden Sea [1993] 6,350 6,050 -0.7


Dutch Wadden Sea [1990] 23,400 26,700 1.3


In a strongly fragmented transportation market, more and more en-terprises are expanding their range of transport services to logis-tics. Simultaneously there is a trend towards a higher specializa-tion in certain product families (fresh commodities, refrigerated goods, car spares, etc.). Several basic trends determine the eco-nomic development of this sector. These trends are:

Increase of international interactions in kinds of travel, ex-change of goods and linkage of information and knowledge

Trend towards outsourcing companies’ internal logistics ac-tivities to new service suppliers,

Supply-chain management: The provision of logistics ser-vices is a fast-growing industry segment, as more manufactur-ers seek to outsource management of their supply chains.


Information and communication techniques have assumed utmost priority for the transport industry. Internet based systems for trade and goods management, process optimisation, merchandise in-formation systems increase the efficiency. Medium-sized enter-prises can maintain their competitiveness by network co-operation. E-Commerce, although to a lesser extent than expected, will in-crease the demand for transportation services.

One the other hand, new innovations in automation techniques ac-celerate the processes of inventory and cargo handling. By input of new and efficient machines and robots the relevance of human work could be reduced. These modern automatic systems guaran-tee moderate prices for transport and constitute the basis for an increase of traffic.

Use of transport information technology will reduce transportation costs for private users and fleet operators; also this technology will to a certain extent contribute to higher infrastructure efficiency. All in all, the development and adoption of telematic technologies mainly in the private transport sector is expected to increase the attractiveness of road transport.


The transport and communication industry is widely spread in the Wadden Sea Region. The differences in regional concentration of the sector are relatively low in contrast to other industries. Be-tween 5% and 7% of the regional labour force work in the transport and communication industry. High regional concentration could be identified at the main port locations in the Wadden Sea Region, like Hamburg, Bremerhaven/ Wilhelmshaven and Esbjerg.

Remarkable for the Dutch part is the significant employment share below the national average of the Netherlands. In contrast to the Netherlands in general, the Dutch Wadden Sea Region has not specialised in transport, logistics and communication to the extent the whole country did. Especially the Dutch regions Fryslân (Prov-ince) and Kop van Noord-Holland are weakly disposed in transport and communications (share of sector specific employment share 4.5%).

Figure 41: Share of employment in transport and communication

Transport and Communication Industry - Share of Employees(as of 2000)

6,7%

5,4%

6,6%

5,8%

5,5%

7,0%

0,0% 1,0% 2,0% 3,0% 4,0% 5,0% 6,0% 7,0% 8,0%

Netherlands

Germany

Denmark



Outlook

In the long run, both the spatial orientation on the local level, which is characterised by suburbanisation of housing, working and shop-ping, as well as economic orientation on the international level, with consumer goods being distributed over long distances, com-plex production networks between production facilities in different parts of the world, international tourism and removed custom bar-riers, will cause increases in passenger and goods transport activi-ties.

Up to 2015 the total traffic volume in Denmark, Germany and Netherlands will increase further. The European Transport Report produced by Prognos forecast an increase of transport volume by 23% to 39% up to 2015.

Due to a moderate development of transport prices and well traffic infrastructure the transport and communication industry will con-tinue its growth process. Influenced by high innovation rates and fast increase of productivity, growth rates of GDP (about 3% p.a.) will only be able to bring about relatively weak employment effects (about 0.3% p.a.) up to 2020. Between 2000 and 2020 about 4,600 new jobs in the transport and communication industry can be ex-pected. Especially the Dutch Wadden Sea Region will benefit the most (0.5% p.a.).

Table 51: Forecast of sector-specific GDP and employment in transport industry until 2020

Transport & commu-nication jobs 2000 jobs 2010 jobs 2020

change jobs in % p.a.

change GDP in % p.a.



Dutch Wadden Sea 26,700 28,200 29,600 0.5% 3.1%


Outsourcing will remain one of the main growth engines of the transport sector, since many manufacturing enterprises do not re-gard the logistics process as part of their core business and assign this to specialized service providers.

Above all, we expect a stronger development of in-house services, e.g. the acceptance of complete services directly at the location of production. Additionally the transport sector will extend its range of services for the wholesale and retail trade, whereby the traditional fitting of racks is supplemented with activities to include stock con-trol and administration.

The proximity to production often implies packing activities; but in-creasingly logistics providers also offer commission business or

quality control. This does not only have the advantage of specializ-ing; beyond that also the wages are lower than for example in the metalworking industry, what entails clear cost advantages accruing from outsourcing with the respective clients.

It is therefore not surprising that in the next years the international logistics service market is expected to expand above average. There are chances for many enterprises to participate in the future as systems leaders for industry and trade. Medium-sized enter-prises will more likely offer single services as subcontractors for large-scale enterprises or offer special services.

Especially the port locations of the Wadden Sea Region will con-tinue to profit from the growing practice of worldwide procurement and manufacturing as well as the rising commodity flows. However the logistics enterprises must be able to supply complete logistics solutions. This structure requires substantial investments, so that only large and efficient enterprises will carry out the change to be-coming a systems leader.

The logistical development with increased focus on just-in-time de-livery (to reduce stocks and inventories) means that the size of goods units will decrease (to avoid stocks at both supplier and re-cipient), and that the frequency of transports will therefore in-crease. If the emphasis is laid on policies of improving trade facili-tation and combined mode transport, this development will mean that there will be

more vehicles on the roads

less use of rail transport

lower utilisation of existing transport equipment

less money for new transport equipment

longer delays at border points and harbours, and thereby a need for more transport units to handle the same amount of cargo

increased need for capital investmen

more empty transports than today, etc.

In the goods transport sector, the already existing congestion prob-lems may on the one hand create renewed interest in rail and shipping instead of truck haulage, on the other hand the shifting potentials are not that large under current and future transport cost conditions. It is expected that trucks will carry most of the transport demand increase, and that there will be enough flexibility either by use of telematics or by using nighttimes for transport to avoid downtime costs on the roads.

5.4 Business services


Heterogeneous and multifarious service sector which could be characterised as knowledge intensive and focused on business clients and public authorities (pri-vate households usually not belonging to customers)

Sector depends on the existence of large or medium-sized companies with innova-tive products, especially concentrated on large cities and suburban areas

Base for innovation and improvement of business competition of enterprises and therefore for the future of the WSR. Also high strategic relevance because of the crea-tion of new jobs in future.

Fast growing sector in turnover and employment during the nineties. High growth perspectives for the future (GDP-growth rates: 2.5%-3.3% p.a.), especially in branches software management and consulting

Absolute and relatively strong concentration in Dutch Wadden Sea Region (esp. concentrated in Groningen and Leeuwarden due to closeness to university, R&D and headquarters of local companies); business services in the Dutch WSR is one of the largest service sectors.

Sector profile

Within the last 30 years a fundamental structural change has taken place in Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands. As a conse-quence these developments have led to an enormous increase in the importance of business services. Business services have de-veloped rapidly during recent years. The main reason for this is the trend of outsourcing and spin-off processes of large enter-prises. Business services depend on existence of innovative indus-trial enterprises in the surroundings.

Business services are largely office-based, belonging to the white-collar sector but also including lower value added activities like in-dustrial cleaning and contract packaging. The sector encompasses the technical, professional and operational services generally sup-plied to firms and government rather than to households, for the support of their production processes or their organisation and is used to improve their efficiency, productivity and competitiveness. Therefore business services constitute a group of heterogeneous and multifarious services with the main focus on business clients. The sector consists of many types of businesses, like consulting, engineering, R&D, accounting, advertising, security services, soft-ware development, ICT-services, leasing of goods, real estate and facility management. These businesses have a high input of knowledge in common, which is indicated by the high proportion of academically trained staff. Only in individual cases (like architects)

do private households belong to the customers of business ser-vices.

In general, there is a strong regional dependency between innova-tive industrial production and the business services. Both sectors have the tendency to locate and concentrate in large cities and suburban areas an abundance of highly-qualified employees and a high level of infrastructure. The Wadden Sea Region does not satisfy the ideal location demands of enterprises in business ser-vices in the fullest sense (among others university density, skilled labour forces, mobility), which explains the below national average share of business services in the Wadden Sea Region. Therefore business services are strongly concentrated in proximity to the me-tropolises of Hamburg, Copenhagen or Amsterdam.

The main benefit for clients (like industry groups, financial ser-vices or public authorities) by mandating enterprises in business services as supporters are:

The clients can concentrate on their core activities (outsourc-ing)

The clients quickly obtain information and advice on how to re-act in different situations to improve their tasks (optimising) and

They require expertise and important knowledge from other companies or institutions (benchmarking).

Sector development

In effect, a large slice of the "new" jobs created in business ser-vices, represents a transfer of jobs from a manufacturing or "public activity" classification rather than the creation of jobs per se. Both boosted the process, the private sector companies shedding activi-ties as a quick fix for an immediate problem or a simple cost-cutting exercise and in the public sector by government require-ments on local authorities. Usually the first to go were the unglam-orous blue-collar activities of cleaning, catering and security. In-creasingly, however, outsourcing has become more sophisticated and a new wave of contracts has come to the fore as companies have outsourced white-collar operations such as payrolls, pen-sions, administration, information technology and call centres. The aim of these has been more directly to achieve competitive advan-tage by allowing an even stronger focus on core businesses whilst developing strategic partnerships with suppliers. This latter ten-dency has been an important generator of new company forma-tions as well as attracting inward investment by companies specifi-cally to service the needs of large company outsourcing require-ments.

Like in most of the highly industrialised countries, the business service sector in the Wadden Sea Region has been the fastest growing service sector in recent years. The consequences are a fast increase of GDP and employment. During the nineties more than 30,000 new jobs in service sector have been created in the Wadden Sea Region. High growth rates were reached in the Ger-man and Dutch Wadden Sea Region, where new employment has developed.

Table 52: Development of employment in business services dur-ing the nineties

Business service [number of jobs] 1990 2000 change in % p.a. Danish Wadden Sea [1993] 4,800 5,500 1.7


Dutch Wadden Sea [1990] 39,100 63,800 5.0


Rising competition in all economic sectors and the the increasing use of information and communication technology was mainly the driving force for growth. The companies reacted with speciali-sation and outsourcing of functions and processes which do not belong to their core-competences. The spin-off and the formation of new service-providing companies followed. Additionally there was an increasing need for advisory services, for instance engi-neering, IT and management consulting. Especially the Year 2000 problem with configuration of computer and banking systems stimulated the demand for ICT (information and communication technologies) business solutions until 2000, followed by the rapid boom of the “new economy” during 1999 and 2001.

Due to low market entry barriers (low capital requirements) spin-offs of former employees as competitors are usual. Customer loy-alties are mostly based upon personal relations and less on rela-tions between enterprises. This explains the domination of small-sized enterprises and the high share of self-employment in the sector.

The segment of real estate management has developed very dy-namically in recent years. The sales growth results from increased rents combined with rising living spaces per head and better hous-ing quality. The employment increase results from the outsourcing of large estate groups; especially property management and facil-ity management have grown at a fast rate. Due to an aging popula-tion and a declining population the demand for real-estate will cool down in large parts of the Wadden Sea Region, except the eco-nomically strong regions and suburban areas. The demand for special living forms for elderly people, like assisted living or retire-ment homes, will increase especially in attractive locations (close to park areas, seaside locations, etc.).


Technological developments, competitive pressures and the in-creasing sophistication in the way that both companies and gov-ernment operate are the main driving forces behind the expanding demand for business services. They benefit from the growth in new areas of technology like computer and information technology (which themselves have facilitated the development and adoption of new market services), from the introduction of important innova-tions in service management, from the ever more complicated op-erational and regulatory environment and, in particular, from the increasing tendency of manufacturers to outsource many in-house services and non-core activities, from legal and information tech-nology functions to cleaning, security and recruitment and to use professional consultants and specialist providers instead.

Business services are becoming increasingly more capital-intensive. This results from an increasing use of information, office and net technology. Especially the businesses of measuring, ex-amining control engineering, laboratory and institutes uses a wide and increasing spectrum of single technologies. Furthermore, business services are becoming increasingly dependent on high-technology (e.g. ICT: information and communication technolo-gies), especially in the engineering services.

ICT-technology is a dynamically strong, information intensive line of business. The rapid development of internet and multimedia has brought out the relative new sub-sector of software and ICT-consulting. The ICT sector could be devised into four sections: hardware, software, ICT services and Telecommunications. New innovations like the mobile phone business, online-shopping and internet-platforms and modern database management systems are new market areas for ICT and business services.

Technological change can affect the production and distribution of business services, as well as the demand for business services from client industries. Some parts of the business services indus-try, like software houses and engineering, themselves form a driv-ing force in technological development. Technological innovation may create new product lines, change the tradability of products, and spur improvements of production efficiency within the busi-ness services industry. Innovations in software and communication tools may continue to have the most pervasive impacts. In the past decade, ICT innovations functioned as a breakthrough technology with macro-economic impacts. Fundamental technological change is an erratic process, with real breakthrough inventions being scarce. Several change opportunities hinge on software develop-ments, broadband access, and supplementary innovations in internet security. Due to the role of the knowledge-intensive busi-ness services branches in the diffusion of innovations to client in-dustries, fast technological change will create a demand for further

assistance by business services specialists. Catching-up with the demand for business services assistance will only remain a growth source for business services industry in a situation with rapidly shifting production frontiers.


The relevance of the business sector depends on the existence of large or medium-sized companies. According to the fact that the Wadden Sea Region is widely characterised as rural and relatively sparsely populated, the share of employees in the business ser-vices sector of Wadden Sea Regions is below the national aver-age, particularly in Germany and Denmark. But the differences be-tween Denmark and Germany and the Netherlands are considera-bly large. In the Dutch Wadden Sea Region the employment share of business services is twice as high as in the German or Danish region. Especially the Provinces Groningen and Fryslân have reached a high regional agglomeration of business services, particularly with good establishment locations for the knowledge services sector in Groningen and Leeuwarden. Reasons for the high concentration of business services in Groningen and Leeu-warden are the strength of academic education capacities, large market area and the favourable combination of universities and companies. With 28,000 employees in Groningen, the business services sector is the largest service sector in the Dutch Wadden Sea Region. Business services in the Dutch Wadden Sea Region are strongly integrated in regional economic structures and product groups. Business services in the Dutch part have specialised on clients in agriculture, food processing, metal and engineering as well as financial services.50 The University of Groningen is a good breeding ground for start-ups in business services in the Dutch Wadden Sea Region.

50 According to N.V. NOM, Knowledge service sector in the Northern Netherlands, 1998: like Postbank NV, Avéro Life In-

surance, FBTO Insurance NV,

Figure 42: Share of employment in business sector

Business Services Industry - Share of Employees(as of 2000)

16,3%

11,4%

9,7%

13,8%

6,9%

6,3%

0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0% 8,0% 10,0% 12,0% 14,0% 16,0% 18,0%

Netherlands

Germany

Denmark



Outlook

Globalisation, rising competition, the increasing use of ITC-technology, the shortening of product-life-cycles, political and business-networking on a national and international level have been the decisive driving factors in recent years and will be the driving forces for future developments. In a long-term view the growth perspectives of business services will differ in four main segments. Real estate management and leasing services will grow constantly on a moderate level, whereas the ICT / software management and consulting agencies will be fast growing branches, strongly in demand by enterprises and public authorities in the long-term view. Further development of business services in future will strongly be determined by technological development and the demand on the part of innovative enterprises. A restriction is that the latter are under-represented in the Wadden Sea Region.

The overall growth of the business services sector is related to the wider economy in general, though it appears to be less vulnerable to economic downturn than services as a whole. Indeed, some business service activities even appear to have counter-cyclical characteristics, as during downturns larger companies often tend to contract out more business to reduce overheads and costs. Continuing to be powered by greater awareness of the benefits from increased externalisation of functions and by the ever-increasing importance of knowledge and information in production, future prospects for business services appear rosy. However, it is unlikely that they will be able to continue to sustain the exception-ally high growth rates of the recent past.

The growth rates of the business service industry will slow down, but still remain above average in the long term view. Up to 2020 about 40,000 new jobs will be created in business services in the Wadden Sea Region. Following the health and social service sec-

tor, the business service industry will achieve the highest employ-ment effect. In regional comparison the Dutch Wadden Sea Re-gion will achieve the highest growth rate (1.7% p.a.). But the rele-vance of the sector in the German and the Danish part of the Wadden Sea Region will remain significantly below the relevance for the national economy. Additionally the jobs in the business ser-vice sector remain concentrated on larger cities.

Due to an ongoing process of sub-urbanisation (direction of movement: out of the centres into the cities´ hinterland), business services in suburban areas around the metropolis Hamburg and Amsterdam (like Stade, Pinneberg, Kop van Noord-Holland) will develop significantly faster than business services in rural areas of the Wadden Sea Region.

Table 53: Forecast of sector-specific GDP and employment in business services up to 2020

Business services jobs 2000 jobs 2010 jobs 2020change jobs in




Dutch Wadden Sea 63,800 77,300 88,800 1.7% 2.9%


Business services will play an important role in the network econ-omy. There are numerous commercial links with industry, govern-ments, financial and business sectors. Enterprises in business sectors and their employees will be considered as carriers of knowledge, new information and experience, who react due to their high mobility and high density of contacts as a catalyst for economic growth of the region.

The perspectives for business services are favourable, and not just because of job growth. The increasing interest in knowledge and production services, the interaction with other companies and con-tinued outsourcing will play into the hands of business services and especially into the hands of knowledge service sectors.

A restriction on the perspectives for business services in the Wad-den Sea Region is that hardly any other economic sector is bound to such an extent to large cities and agglomerations. Moreover, the presence of a differentiated supply of business services represents the location quality and economic vitality of large agglomerations. Outstanding location for business services in North Germany and the Wadden Sea Region is Hamburg. Hamburg has a market dominating position for high-quality business services in the whole North German area (accountancy and tax advice services, busi-ness and management consultancy, computer and related activi-ties, research and development, legal services, technical testing

and analysis, advertising and publicity, real estate activities etc.). Bremen, Oldenburg, Groningen or Esbjerg follow a considerable distance behind Hamburg with regard to the significance of busi-ness services for the Wadden Sea Region.

Besides large agglomerations, the spatial distribution of business services is comparatively widespread, albeit on a lower level of employment significance. Thus primary support for the entire area with business services is ensured, which approximately accords with the pattern of regional centres. However, the high-quality and fast growing enterprise services that are primarily located in Ham-burg are under-represented in the Wadden Sea Region. So the employment increases will turn out considerably lower, especially in rural regions compared with main agglomerations.

Nevertheless, due to following factors the perspectives of new growth of business services in WSR are opportune:

Companies will continue to concentrate on core actives (thus the demand for business services will be stimulated)

The trend to outsourced supplying will increase

The application of modern technologies, like mobile solutions and Internet, will grow for businesses and households

Business processes of management and steering are getting more complex and knowledge intensive and

The stress of competition on international markets forces the increasing use of consulting and advertising activities (e.g. market research, process engineering, etc).

In this context, the economic development of the Wadden Sea Re-gion will closely be related with the future of business services, which could be considered as a strategic element for new growth and new jobs. The business services entail new knowledge to the Wadden Sea Region, provide knowledge transfer with other re-gions and have a high importance for reputation and image of the region. Fast and flexible business services will be a location factor for key enterprises, which generate new products and take new growth to the Wadden Sea Region.

5.5 Health care and social activities


After the trade industry the health and social sector is the second largest industry. About 110,000 employees work in health and social occupations.

Ageing population makes health care and social activity increasingly more important.

Due to the existence of health resorts, the health care service is connected with the tourism sector, especially in German WSR.

Growing GDP will cause significant job effects, because of high intensity of labour. Up to 2020 about 40,000 new jobs could be expected, most of them part-time jobs.

Relatively high concentration in Danish Wadden Sea Region (sector specific em-ployment share: 16%).

Sector profile

Public and church institutions dominate the health care and social activity sector. But the share of privately run institutions (e.g. reha-bilitation centres or old-peoples’ homes) is rising constantly. In Germany still more than 50% of sector-specific GDP is generated by hospitals. The sector health care and social activity includes the following institutions: hospitals, doctor’s surgeries, massage ser-vices, ambulance, veterinary, nursery homes, youth welfare ser-vices and home care services. One typical sub-sector, which is strongly dominated in the German Wadden Sea Region, are the health resorts and health-resort services at several seaside-locations (among others: St- Peter Ording, Westerland, Borkum).

Health care and social activities includes the expenditure of private households for itinerant and stationary health services as well as social spending on the part of the public authorities. The costs of health care have increased considerably within the last 10 years. No other sector might have been changed so strongly by demo-graphic shifts as that of health care and social activity. At present the spending propensity for health care on the part of over 60-year-olds is approximately twice as high as in the case of the less than 40-year-olds.

Driving forces for the sector-specific development are the number of older people, average expectancy of life and private and public expenditure on social and health care. Health care and social ac-tivities benefit from the process of aging population, but this how-ever at the same time causes an increase of non-wage labour costs (payroll costs) in other sectors and handicaps economic growth of the Wadden Sea Regions.

Sector development

The sector is strongly challenged by demographic change. An ageing population and simultaneously rising costs for medical treatment have forced public institutions to start extensive reforms. The co-operation and merging of hospitals and an efficient cost management are examples for the measures undertaken to tackle the problem. Facing the new challenges, the sector is currently in-fluenced by a permanent changing of legislative regulations. In spite of cost cutting in public and church institutions, the ageing of the population and a rising responsibility of everyone for their own well being will have an expansive effect on the whole health and social sector.

During the nineties especially the German and Dutch Wadden Sea Region generated high sector-specific employment growth (annual rates about 2.5%). This dynamic is basically caused by the growth of social services provided by private institutions. In contrast to the German and Dutch regions there are fewer changes in the Danish WSR.

Table 54: Development of employment in health care and social activities during the nineties

Health care /social activities [number of jobs] 1990 2000 change in % p.a. Danish Wadden Sea [1993] 11,750 14,200 0.9


Dutch Wadden Sea [1990] 45,900 59,000 2.5



The health care and social sector is already one of the most impor-tant service sectors in the Wadden Sea Region measured by share of employment. The Wadden Sea Region has specialised basically in health care and social activity, much more than the re-spective economies as a whole. In the Danish region (14,400 em-ployees, resp. 16.5%) the health care and social sector is the larg-est and also the fastest growing service sector. Its high employ-ment share in the Wadden Sea Region is mainly caused by spe-cialisation in senior-citizen target groups in tourism (e.g. health re-sorts).

Figure 43: Share of employment in health care and social activity

Health Care and Social Work Sector - Share of Employees(as of 2000)

11,0%

9,7%

16,7%

12,8%

10,8%

16,4%

0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0% 8,0% 10,0% 12,0% 14,0% 16,0% 18,0%

Netherlands

Germany

Denmark



Outlook

The demographic change will make the health care and social activity sector one of the strongest growing sectors in the Wadden Sea Region. The employment will also rise considerably, particu-larly in the Dutch part. Health care and social services are labour-intensive and there are few opportunities to increase productivity by rationalising work processes. In general, the prices for health care will increase more slowly than overall private consumption.

Table 55: Forecast of sector-specific GDP and employment in health care and social activity up to 2020

Health care & social activity jobs 2000

jobs 2010

jobs 2020

change jobs in % p.a.

change GDP in % p.a.



Dutch Wadden Sea 59,000 74,000 86,800 2.0% 2.2%


The sector tends to be rather labour intensive and this will underlie much of the increase in employment over the years. In addition to the formal employee jobs, a large number of volunteer workers are also involved in the health and social care sector. Up to 2020 about 40,000 new jobs in health care and social services will emerge, whereas most of these new jobs will be part-time jobs. Part-time jobs are usual work contracts in this sector, which par-ticularly meet demands of employed women with children. The job rise will be the fastest in the Dutch Wadden Sea Region. In a long-term view an annual job growth of about 2% can be expected for the Dutch region. Job growth in the German (1.0%) and Danish (0.6%) part will be more moderate. Favoured by high tourism ca-

pacities, wellness and/or rehabilitation potentials and an aging population, the Wadden Sea Region has enormous growth poten-tial for health care and social activities.

Health care is part of the consumption pattern expanding most dy-namically in the future. The sector-specific expenditure will almost doubled from 2001 to 2020. The main reason for this increase of health expenditure will be the increasing share of over 60-year-old people. In Germany for example, the share of over 60-year-old population in the Federal States of Lower Saxony, Bremen and Schleswig-Holstein will increase from 24.0% in 2000 up to 28.8% in 2020.51 in 2020 about 0.6 mill. people over 60 years will addi-tionally supplement demand for health care services in contrast to 2000. One of the results of this shift in age structure is also a clear rise in the expenditure for old peoples’ and nursing homes. The demand for care services offered by the private sector will there-fore increase in future. These determinants will be the driving force for GDP and new jobs for health care and social activity.

Social services for children will develop contrary to the services for elderly people. In the long-term view for children's homes and day-care centres two contradictory effects come together. On the one hand the number of children will decline up to 2020 and on the other hand the increase of women’s employment will entail an in-creased demand for social services. In the segment of youth care, these two processes might offset one another in the long run.

51 accroding to Prognos AG; Deutschland Report 2002-2020, 2002

5.6 Public administration


About 93,000 employees resp. 9% of total labour force work for public administration.

The public administration sector is relatively small in Denmark and in the Nether-lands. In Germany due to the concentration of about 30,000 military employees it is one of the biggest service sectors in the region.

The development of the sector depends mainly on political decisions.

Due to the difficult situation of public budgets the sector will shrink. In the German WSR the fastest decline of employment will be expected in the period prior to 2020.

Because of budget deficits and high debts the expenditures of public authorities will allow only low increases. The consolidation of budgets will dominate the future.

The perspectives of public administration will be unfavourable; a high reduction of about 7,000 jobs is to be expected up to 2020; not including the job cuts caused by military relocations.

Sector profile

The public administration sector cannot be compared directly with the other service sectors. Public institutions do not depend on markets or economic aspects and cannot considered in terms of supply and demand. The sector is mainly influenced by political and cost-oriented decisions. The volume and range of public administration is influenced by strategic decisions of politics as to which public tasks are to be provided and financed. The privatisa-tions of railway, mail or power authorities during the nineties have shown how to reduce public tasks and cut costs for public authori-ties.

The public administration sector includes mainly three sub-sectors, which are public authorities in general, national defence and wel-fare systems, including health and unemployment insurance as well as social pension funds. The public education services do not belong to public administration, so they will be considered sepa-rate in the next chapter. Welfare systems do not play an important role in sector-specific employment in the Wadden Sea Region, be-cause these services are concentrated in other regions of the re-spective countries. However national defence (esp. navy forces) and the public administration of communities, counties and ad-ministration of provinces have a high relevance for sector-specific employment of the Wadden Sea Region. The German Wadden Sea Region does not host any institutions of federal or provincial government (except universities, R&D institutes and Water and Shipping Directorate Nordwest in Aurich).

Sector development

Decreasing tax revenues and instable social security systems have forced the politicians to an extensive reorganisation of the public institutions and the public administration. Since the early nineties a couple of reform efforts led to a permanent cutting of jobs in the total public services sector. During the nineties all three parts of the Wadden Sea Region suffered negative job effects in public administration. With a reduction of 2.9% jobs annually the decline in the Danish Wadden Sea Region was the fastest.

One element of the public administration sector is the shrinking of expenditure on defence. For instance in Germany the reform of the army led to the closure of a number of locations. The question as to whether the German army will be able to cope with the new challenges of international engagements still has to be answered.

Table 56: Development of employment in public administration during the nineties

Public administration [number of jobs] 1990 2000 change in % p.a. Danish Wadden Sea [1993] 6,150 5,200 -2.9

German Wadden Sea [1998] 51,600 50,900 -0,6

Dutch Wadden Sea [1990] 42,800 37,200 -1.2

Prognos AG 2004 according to official national statistics.


The implementation of controlling systems and tools for the stra-tegic planning of administration processes are current innovations. For the future a concentration on qualification and performance of employees and performance oriented payment systems are ex-pected.

E-government: The public authorities are achieving more efficient processes and customer-friendly services to the public. The online offers and public information via Internet will further increase and replace traditional affairs of citizens with public authorities.


In the Danish and Dutch Wadden Sea Region, the number of jobs is comparable to national level. In contrast to that, the German employment share in the Wadden Sea Region is significantly above the national level. The main reason for this concentration is that there are large locations of the German navy on the North Sea

coast. The German “Bundeswehr", which is one of the largest employers in the German Wadden Sea Region, has deployed about 30,000 soldiers and civil employees in the German part.52 A high concentration of military forces exists especially in Wil-helmshaven (about 8,700 employees),53 Husum (2,600 employ-ees) and Nordholz (2,000 employees). In contrast to the concen-tration of German military forces the defence forces in the Danish region are significantly smaller (about 750 to 1,150 employees).

Figure 44: Share of employment in public administration

Public Administration Sector - Share of Employees(as of 2000)

7,6%

7,1%

5,9%

8,1%

9,7%

5,5%

0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0% 8,0% 10,0% 12,0%

Netherlands

Germany

Denmark



Outlook

In a long-term view, public administration will belong to the under-dog branches. Regarding the difficult situation of the public budg-ets, further savings on the part of public authorities are necessary. Like other sectors, for example agriculture and fishery or construc-tion, public administration will lose economic relevance by freez-ing the budgets and reduction of employment.

In the Netherlands and in Germany, employment in the sector will decrease annually by 0.3% respectively 0.5%. The Danish region will have a slight increase in employment in the next years. The effect on the Wadden Sea Region depends mainly on political de-cisions whether a location or an institution will expand or will be re-located or closed. The future of army locations is dependent on the worldwide political climate and the questions as to which kind of army is needed and also on trends within the army towards spe-cialisation or co-operation on a EU-level. Structural changes could be particularly expected in the long-term view for reorganisation of navy forces in the German and Dutch Wadden Sea.

52 According to Bundesminister der Verteidigung, Ressortkonzept Stationierung, Die Bundeswehr der Zukunft, 2001 53 According to Cowi, 2003

Between 2000 and 2020 a cut of approx 7,000 jobs in public ad-ministration will be expected. Most of the cuts (5,000 jobs) will be in the German part. This scenario does not include reforms and re-locations of military forces in Germany, the Netherlands and Den-mark, which are impending but cannot be quantified as employ-ment effects at this moment.

Table 57: Forecast of sector-specific GDP and employment in public administration until 2020

Public administration jobs 2000 jobs 2010 jobs 2020change jobs in



German Wadden Sea 47,100 44,500 42,100 -0.5% -10.6%

Dutch Wadden Sea 37,200 36,100 35,000 -0.3% -5.8%

Prognos AG 2004, World Report 2002. Note: Without regarding reforms and relocation of military forces in WSR.

The enlargement of the European Union will influence the public authorities in the Wadden Sea Region in the medium-term view (at the beginning of 2007). Most of the Wadden Sea Regions (esp. Fryslân), Ostfriesland, Unterweser and Western Schleswig-Holstein) are development areas within the context of the Struc-tural Funds Objective 2, which aims at revitalising all areas facing structural difficulties, whether industrial, rural, urban or dependent on fisheries. Actually about 10% of the total Danish population, 13% of the German population 15% of Dutch population lives in development areas. Between 2000 and 2006, about €1,609 mill. of EU subsidies of the Objective 2 are available for the area of North of Netherlands, Bremen, Lower Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein and Denmark, which will help to stimulate business development and infrastructure improvements.54

Due to EU-Enlargement, the focus of stimulating structurally weak regions will change in the programme period at the beginning of 2007. More EU-subsidies from the European Regional Develop-ment Fund (ERDF) and the European Social Fund (ESF) will be destined for weak structural regions in Eastern Europe. The con-sequences of these developments are not totally measurable for WSR, because of prolonged political discussion of EU-Commission and member states. Probable is a reduction in the amount of EU-subsidies in western European regions, either by a reduction for development areas or by a reduction in total amount of subsidies.

54 according to EU-Commission, DG-Region Inforegio: only subsidies of European Regional Development Fund (ERDF): €

734 mill. Lower Saxony, € 162 mill. Denmark, € 113 mill. € Bremen, € 258 mill. Schleswig-Holstein, € 342 mill. North Netherlands

5.7 Education


About 50,000 employees resp. 5% of labour force are working in the education sec-tor. High concentration of employees in the Danish and Dutch regions.

The expenditures for education in Denmark are significantly higher than in Germany or Netherlands. Characteristic for Germany is the concomitance of fast growing pri-vate educational services.

The density of students per inhabitants is above the national average in the Dutch WSR. The University of Groningen is the largest institution for academic education (20,000 students).

The academic education capacities in German WSR are below average. Campuses of two universities connect the Danish Wadden Sea Region.

The education and research fields of the universities and institutes are in line with the economic structure of the regions. Key scopes are engine construction, marine biology and food technology.

Sector profile

The education sector contains the public education of primary and secondary schools, nursery schools, vocational schools and col-leges and universities. In general, the sector can be separated into the public sub-sector of educational institutions, controlled by pub-lic authorities, and private sub-sector under the responsibility of churches and independent agencies. Private institutions in ad-vanced and further training segment have grown fast during recent years. New demand for language and computer courses have opened new educational markets.

The comparison of educational expenditures as share of national GDP between Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands indicates the relatively high education level in Denmark. In Denmark about 30% more money is spent on education than in Germany and about 60% more than in Netherlands. One structural difference be-tween the three countries is the relatively high relevance of private education in Germany, which does not play any significant role in Denmark and the Netherlands.

Table 58: Education expenditures in Denmark, Germany and Netherlands

[Education expenditure as share in % of GDP in 1998] Public education

Private educa-tion

Total

Denmark 6.8 0.4 7.2

Germany 4.4 1.2 5.6

Netherlands 4.5 0.1 4.6

Prognos AG 2004 according to BMBF, Basic and Structural Data 2001/2002, 2002

Sector development

The economic and strategic relevance of the education sector in-creased concurrently with the structural change. The society and economic situation changed from an industrial society to a knowl-edge based service society. The relevance of education and knowledge depends decisively on how differentiated society is and how the division of labour is managed. Today the ability of the la-bour force to obtain qualifications is one of the most important economic factors for industrial regions. Increasing complexity and specialisation of the work and production processes always re-quires more specific knowledge: result is the change from indus-trial society towards an information society.

The rapid technological development causes permanent updating and customisation of specific knowledge. The new device of edu-cation is life-long learning. Therefore vocational education is be-coming more and more important, in turn generating new offers for vocational education. There is an imbalance of interest in educa-tion between the enterprises and employees. Usually enterprises are more interested in seeking the vocational training of employ-ees, than employees themselves. This is a main reason for weak dynamics of expenditures for vocational training on the part of pri-vate households in contrast to enterprises.

During the nineties about 4,000 new jobs have been provided in the education sector. The German and Dutch part of the Wadden Sea Region reached the highest growth rates of employment (1.3 to 1.9% p.a.).

Table 59: Development of employment in education during the nineties

Education 1990 2000 Change in % p.a. Danish Wadden Sea [1993] 6,125 6,200 0.1


Dutch Wadden Sea [1990] 27,100 30,700 1.3



New educational concepts in kinds of ICT-technologies have been developed and introduced to schools and universities. The use of ICT-technologies is underachieved at educational centres, be-cause of immense investment needs for computers and software. The private capacities of use surpass the public capacities in edu-cation centres.

Completely new studying concepts enable an increase of ICT-technologies. Besides online databases, real time conferences and co-operation, also international courses of studies are conceivable via the Internet. This remains the ideal access to knowledge from everyone at every place at every time.


The Dutch and Danish education sector of the Wadden Sea Re-gion outperforms the employment level of the respective aggregate economies. In the Dutch and Danish Wadden Sea Region about 6.5% to 7.0% of the labour force work for the education sector. In the German Wadden Sea Region, the employment share of edu-cation jobs (2.3%) falls short. The main reason for this deficit in the German part could be accounted for by statistical effects. Teach-ers and public servants with tenure are not included in official em-ployment statistics of social insurances. The total employment ca-pacities in the German Wadden Sea Region are higher than measured by statistics.

Figure 45: Share of employment in education

Education Industry - Share of Employees(as of 2000)

5,3%

5,2%

7,3%

6,6%

2,3%

7,1%

0,0% 1,0% 2,0% 3,0% 4,0% 5,0% 6,0% 7,0% 8,0%

Netherlands

Germany

Denmark



The higher education system of the Wadden Sea Region is below the average of the respective aggregate economies. About 32,000 students are enrolled at the German and Dutch universities. In the Dutch part about 20,000 students are enrolled at the University of

Groningen, whereas in the German part about 12,000 students are spread over four universities of applied sciences with seven loca-tions (Heide, Elmshorn, Bremerhaven, Wilhelmshaven, Emden, Elsfleth, Leer). Although they are not part of the Wadden Sea Re-gion, the universities Bremen, Hamburg and Oldenburg are very important concerning academic education and research.

Due to a relatively low density of intra-regional universities, a lot of young people with university-level graduation leave the region for training and study purposes. After their studies they only partly re-turn. Even though there are some important universities in the hin-terland, such as Bremen, Oldenburg or Hamburg, relatively few academic job opportunities in the Wadden Sea Region prevent them from returning. On the other side, it is difficult for enterprises in rural and/or peripheral regions to recruit highly qualified employ-ees.

Figure 46: Share of students at universities in 2001 in relation to population

1,31,1

0,60,8

1,4

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

Dutch Waddensea Netherlands German Waddensea Germany

in p

erce

nt p

er p

opul

atio

n

share of students on Dutch universities

share of students on German universities

share of students on German universities of applied sciences, and others


The Dutch region achieves a student density of 1.3% of total popu-lation. In comparison to the Netherlands (1.1%) the Dutch Wadden Sea Region could be characterised as a region of high education density. In contrast to that, the density of the German Wadden Sea Region is significantly below the national average. In the German region the share of total students55 (0.6%) is nearly four times lower than in Germany in general (2.2%). This result indicates that the German part is weakly represented by education capacities for the local economy. Recruiting skilled labour forces from other re-

55 including students at university and university of applied sciences

gions is a disadvantage of the economy in the German districts. The Danish region does not have its own university but Esbjerg is associated with two campuses (about 1,000 students) to the Uni-versity of Southern Denmark and the University of Aalborg.

Table 60: Universities and key research institutes in WSR

Universities and colleges students employeesGroningen University of Groningen 20.000 5.000

WilhelmshavenUniversity of applied sciences Oldenburg/Ostfriesland/Wilhelmshaven 8.700 650

EmdenBremerhaven University of applied sciences Bremerhaven 1.690 135Elmshorn University of applied sciences Nordakademie (private) 820 n/a

HeideUniversity of applied sciences Westküste, Hochschule für Wirtschaft und Technik 780 70

Key research institutes/entreprises field of research employeesItzehoe Fraunhofer Institute for Silicon Technology ISIT mircoelectronic 150

CuxhavenFederal Research Center for Fisheries, location Cuxhaven (BFAFi) fishery, ecology n/a

WilhelmshavenBundeswehr Research Institute for Materials, Explosicesm Fuels and Lubricants, location Wihelmshaven defence systems n/a

Wilhelmshaven German Wind Energy Institute economic use of wind energy 50

WilhelmshavenCentre for Research on Shallow Seas, Coastal Zones and the Marine Environment (DFG) marine research 30

Wilhelmshaven Research Institute Senckenberg (WGL) biodiversity and biosphere 40Wilhelmshaven Institut für Vogelforschung "Vogelwarte Helgoland" ornithology 25

BremerhavenAlfred-Wegener-Institute Center for polar and marine research (AWI)

polar expedition, oceanography 550

Den HelderTNO Milieu, Energie en Proces- innovatie (TNO-MEP) Department Ecological Risk Studies Location Den Helder environment n/a

Den Helder TNO Industrial Technology, location Den Helder n/aGroningen TNO Telecom Groningen, location Groningen communication n/aGroningen TNO Nutrition and Food Research food n/a

Groningen Pharma Bio-Research clinic studies and services 175

GroningenNetherlands Organization for Scientific Research SRON Groningen

astrophysics and earth system sciences n/a

Groningen Gasunie natural gas 90

Groningen Biomade molecular nanotechnologies 45Veendam Avebe Research biotech (potato starch) 120Den Burg (Texel) Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ) oceanographic 250Drachten Neopost IT and post solutions 57

Prognos AG 2004 according to CPS, Netherlands Bureau of Economic Politicy Analysis, Technology and Manufacturing Unit, 2002; BMBF Bundesbericht Forschung 2000, Minis-terie van Onderwijs, Cultuur en Wetenschap Note: Furthermore: Institut für Chemie und Biologie des Meeres der Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg (ICBM) - Meeresstation (Wilhelmshaven) and Niedersächsisches Institut für historische Küstenforschung (Wil-helmshaven).

Another relevant field of education and innovation are the public and private research institutes. Principally, these institutes are concentrated at locations of universities and universities of applied sciences. A lot of institutes and research enterprises are cumu-

lated around Groningen. In the German Wadden Sea Region, the AWI Institute for polar research in Bremerhaven and the Fraun-hofer ISIT (microelectronics) in Itzehoe have high regional eco-nomic relevance. These research institutes in the Wadden Sea Region are generally specialised in research fields, which domi-nate the regional economy, like shipbuilding, maritime technology and sciences or the food industry. These research capacities play a key role for advanced academic education and the development of new products.

Outlook

Education is generally being called upon to play an increasingly important role in preparing young people to enter the business world and to continue updating skills throughout their working life. Through its content, organisation and the quality of its training and formation, education is the most important factor in meeting the demand and the changing conditions of the labour market. A gen-eral tendency towards a longer educational period reflects both an increasing need for higher education as a protection against un-employment and the political desire to offer as many students as possible the opportunity to complete secondary studies and to move into higher and further vocational education.

Between 2000 and 2020 the number of employees in the educa-tion sector will increase slowly. About 1,700 new jobs in the edu-cation sector will be provided up to 2020. Especially the private education and training sector will increase faster in contrast to the public sector, caused by deficits of public funding. Due to low birth rates and declining population share in the German Wadden Sea Region and decline of pupils the number of schoolteachers will not increase.

Table 61: Forecast of sector-specific GDP and employment in education until 2020

Education Jobs 2000 Jobs 2010 Jobs 2020Change jobs in




Dutch Wadden Sea 30,700 31,160 31,789 0.2% 1.6%


The following trends of educational systems are expected in a long-term view. The future of educational systems in the Wadden Sea Region is strongly connected with future conditions of work:

Life-long learning and new concepts: Caused by an increas-ing demand for vocational training throughout the working life, every individual will have to invest in additional education and

further education, supported by employer and state. New knowledge forms and educational concepts will displace tradi-tional systems. The flexible branching of education sequences by modules, constituents and interdisciplinary working will gain acceptance in future.

New target groups: Due to aging population and life-long learning new target groups will appear on education markets. Elder employees and pensioners will be become a more and more a relevant target group for professional life and education systems. Due to the gap between qualified employees and longer working life, older employees will return to the enter-prises. This trend will cause the further development of special education offers for these target groups. One further target group gaining relevance will be the immigrants, who need addi-tional education offers in future, like language courses.

Increasing level of knowledge: The trend towards higher qualification will continue within the next years, which applies to employees with university degrees and employees with completed vocational training. The trend of globalisation will also influence educational systems by way of increasing the demand for language courses. Structural changes will increase the demand for knowledge-based services, like consultancy, architecture and engineering offices, and otherwise reduce the demand for employees without completed vocational training. The educational institutions in the Wadden Sea Region have to take into account the increased demand for higher qualification within the economy and the tertiarisation of jobs.

Regional education network: Due to regional variability of the labour markets and economic power a strong trend of region-alisation of education and training demand and systems can be recognised. The competitiveness of a region depends on the availability and level of knowledge and qualification, which be-comes an important location factor. In the long run regional education networks with participation of educational institutions and enterprises becomes more important, which is an aim for the Wadden Sea Region particularly in terms of cross-border cooperation and networking between Denmark, Germany and The Netherlands.

5.8 Tourism


About 38,000 employees (3.5% of labour force) are working in tourism in the closer sense (hotel & restaurant sector).

Annually, the Wadden Sea Region is visited by 8 - 10 mill. tourists (44 mill. Over-night stays), most of them stem from the Wadden Sea countries. Key target groups of tourists are families and senior citizens.

Main motives to visit Wadden Sea Regions for tourists are: uniqueness of nature and landscape.

High regional concentration of tourism in Nordfriesland and on German and Dutch Wadden Sea islands.

Total EU-holiday market expands in 2004 and 2005 with strong growth rates (>5%). From 2006 on, growth path with 4% p.a.

Sector profile

The tourism sector is a mix of various service offerings. Tourism mainly covers the accommodation and catering trade, parts of the service industries from the leisure, sports, art and culture area, parts of the traffic and individual commerce as well as health ser-vices in the case of health resorts. Tourism contains the whole service chain of vacations and day trips, which starts with the booking of a journey followed by transportation, lodging, board and ends with entertainment and shopping.

In statistical classification, the sector tourism does not exist in terms of tourism chains. The sector tourism is a cross sectional area of several service sectors, which belong proportionately to dif-ferent services sectors. In the following chapter the sector hotels and restaurants will be regarded, which covers large portions of the tourism sector.

From an economic viewpoint tourism is very significant, generating about 8% to 10% of GDP in the broader sense (including other sectors beyond hotels and restaurants) in Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands.56 The domestic tourism markets in Denmark, Germany and Netherlands could be separated into four different main segments, which differ in the offer, target groups and types of services. Cultural tourism is one of the main incentives for foreign travellers, which is associated with visiting places of historical in-

56 according to DIW, Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Berlin, 1999; World Travel & Tourism Council

terest, experiencing the historical and modern aspects. The sec-ond segment is becoming increasingly important: Denmark, Ger-many and Netherlands as destinations for trade fair travel, con-ferences and seminars. The third segment is holidays based on events and attractions, like visiting amusement parks, museums, exhibitions or public festivals.

The fourth growing segment is based on experiencing nature and the countryside combined with health and fitness tourism, like holidays in the countryside with a combination of relaxation and activities. Tourism in the Wadden Sea Region belongs mostly to the fourth segment of domestic tourism markets. In comparison to the tourism markets in other European regions, like the Mediterra-nean area, the domestic tourists dominate in Wadden Sea Region, coming mostly from Denmark, Germany and Netherlands.

Sector development

Tourism in general has experienced a very dynamic development in the Wadden Sea Region since the 1970s. In Denmark the ac-commodation capacity has almost doubled in the last 25 years. In the Wadden Sea Region the bedding capacities are concentrated on the coast and the islands. The number of overnight stays has increased faster than the bedding capacities due to optimisation and expansion of the season period.

Table 62: Development of overnight stays 1995 to 2000 in selec-tive sub-regions

Number of overnight stays in mill. Sub-region [> 0.5 mill. over-night stays in 2000] 1995 2000

development 1995-2000 in %

Dithmarschen 1.5 1.3 -13.8

Nordfriesland 6.9 6.5 -5.3

Cuxhaven 1.8 2.2 26.1

Aurich 3.3 3.4 2.0

Friesland 1.3 1.5 15.7

Leer 1.7 1.5 -7.8

Wesermarsch 0.7 0.7 -8.8

Wittmund 2.1 2.2 2.1

German Wadden Searegion total 20.5 20.7 0.9 South Jutland county (DK) 3.7 5.0 35.5

Ribe county (DK) 5.0 5.1 1.8

Danish Wadden Searegion total * 8.7 10.1 16.1 Province Fryslân (NL) 11.0 11.1 2.2

Province Groningen (NL) 2.1 2.1 14.9

Dutch Wadden Searegion total ** 13.1 13.3 4.2

Prognos AG 2004 according to official national statistics and Toerdata Noord, 2003, Toer-isme in Cijfers. Note: * no data available for Danish Wadden Sea Region on the level of 10 communities ** Development in Dutch regions refer to period 1998 to 2002, Dutch region without Kop van Noord-Holland

Annually, 8-10 million tourists visit the Wadden Sea region. The intact unique nature of the area, its remarkable landscape, a healthy climate, the hospitality of the people and the cultural heri-tage continue to give the region a high recreational value and make it attractive for tourists. Enquiries in Germany demonstrated, that the most important motives for choosing the Wadden Sea Re-gion as a holiday destination are: fresh air, stimulating or healthy climate, hospitable people, intact environment, unique nature, swimming in the sea and the Wadden Sea National Park itself.57

In large parts of the Wadden Sea Region, tourism is an important economic activity in terms of income and employment. According to estimates, the turnover in the Danish Wadden Sea Region is approximately 267 mill. Euros in the Schleswig-Holstein Wadden Sea Region approximately 688 mill. Euros and in the Dutch Wad-den Sea Region 586 mill. Euros.

In 1996, in the Schleswig-Holstein region, app. 286 mill. Euros (42%) were direct profit to the owners of the facilities and salaries to those employed in the tourism sector. It is estimated that 20% of the employment in the Schleswig-Holstein region derives from tourism. This corresponds to about 9,000 jobs and one third of the inhabitants depend on turnover originating from tourism activities. This clearly underlines tourism as a vital local source of income and job creation. Information indicates that income and employment in the tourism sector in the Danish and Dutch Wad-den Sea Regions are comparable to those in Schleswig-Holstein. On the majority of the islands and some mainland locations in the German Wadden Sea Region tourism is the most important eco-nomic activity.

In terms of statistical registration there are differences of method-ology in the case of calculating overnight stays in Denmark, Ger-many and the Netherlands. However, the number of total overnight stays in the Wadden Sea Region could amount to 44 mill. in 2000. The overnight stays are distributed by 20.7 mill. to German part, 13.3 mill to Dutch and 11.1 mill. to Danish Wadden Sea Region. Between 1995 and 2000 the Danish Wadden Sea Region (esp. in South Jutland 35%) could record the highest growth rate of over-night stays (14%), whereas the Dutch (4%) and German Wadden Sea Regions (1%) remained more or less constant. Some German sub-regions (like Dithmarschen and Steinburg) lost about 14% of accommodation in this period. Especially these sub-regions are af-fected by a decline of tourists.

During the nineties the sector hotels and restaurants (helpful indi-cator for tourism) developed very buoyantly in the Wadden Sea

57 F.U.R (Hrsg.) (1997): Die Reiseanalyse RA 1997, Institut für Tourismus- und Bäderforschung in Nordeuropa, Kiel.

Region. The Dutch and German region had the highest annual growth rates between 4 and 5%. In the Danish Wadden Sea Re-gion the growth rates of employment remained on a lower level. One possible cause for the below-average growth of employment in the tourism sector in the Danish Wadden Sea Region could be the high incidence of private offers for holidays and accommoda-tion (holiday homes). In contrast to the German Wadden Sea Re-gion, the positive growth in overnight stays recorded for the Danish region is for hotel accommodation and has thus resulted in a slight increase in employment.

The dynamics of the tourism sector were stopped by the terrorist attack of 11.09.2001, which caused a temporary crisis in the inter-national tourism sector (esp. flight-travel tourism). More than 6,500 new jobs had been provided in tourism of the Wadden Sea during the nineties.

Table 63: Development of employment in tourism (hotel and res-taurants) during the nineties

hotels / restaurants 1990 2000 change in % p.a. Danish Wadden Sea [1993] 2,475 2,900 2.3


Dutch Wadden Sea [1990] 7,500 12,100 4.9



The direct monetary benefit from tourism for the municipalities dif-fers between the three states. In Denmark, the municipalities have a national complex calculation system, which is centralised in the exchequer and repaid for tourism projects and infrastructure in-vestments. In Germany the municipalities raise visitor’s tax in order to fund their own tourist infrastructure. The municipalities in the Netherlands have the right to impose taxes in form of extra taxes on overnight stays, ferry tickets, etc..

In the German region, two main holiday areas can be identi-fied. In Lower Saxony the islands of “Ostfriesland”, form to-gether with the mainland, a popular tourism region. The most famous and frequented points are Borkum and Norderney. The second German holiday area is the islands of “Nord-friesland” in Schleswig-Holstein. The most famous points are Westerland (Sylt) and St. Peter-Ording on the mainland. Nord-friesland, which is the strongest German sub-region for tour-ism, is specialised in sanatoriums and therapeutic baths. About 5,500 employees are working there in the German Wadden Sea Region. The German part (Hamburg and Bremerhaven) is also famous for cruise tours, particular for trips to Scandinavia (e.g. the fjords and the North Cap). The German Wadden Sea

Region has specialised on accommodation-forms like hotels and holiday flats.

In the Dutch Wadden Sea Region most tourist capacities are concentrated on the islands, similar to the Islands of “Ost-friesland”. The most famous islands are Texel, Terschelling and Ameland. In the Dutch region accommodation provided by camping, hotels, holiday flats and youth hostels dominate tourism. Niche markets are overnight stays on yachts.

The Danish Wadden Sea tourism is different from the German and Dutch tourism market. In Denmark, the dominating form of accommodation is summer cottages (market share of over-night stays approx. 50%), followed by camping (25%). The tourism sector in the Danish Wadden Sea Region has a total annual turnover of DKK 1.14 mill. In Southern Jutland a signifi-cant part of the overall turnover of tourism depends on day-trippers, who make up 75% of the total turnover.58

Outlook

In general, the future perspectives for the tourism industry are promising the future. Worldwide tourism and the travel industry will be one of the main growth industries, with a forecast growth of about 3 per cent in Europe.

Figure 47: Growth perspectives of tourism in European countries up to 2010

1

Growth in the tourism market 2002 - 2010Selected European Countries

0

5

10

15

20

25

United

King

dom

German

y

France Ita

ly

Netherla

nds

Belgium

/ Lux

emburg

Spain

Sweden

Greec

e

Austria

Denmark

Irelan

d

Switzerl

and

Norway

Portug

al

Finland

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Columns (left hand scale) -Absolute Growth 2002 - 2010

Line (right scale) -Annual Relative Growth 2002 - 2010

Gro

wth

tour

ism

exp

endi

ture

s [€

bn.

]

Source: Prognos AG, Prognos-Forecast Model, TOP-Down-Analyse is based on WTO data.

Prognos AG, ZEIT Reisestudie 2002

58 According to Cowi, 2003.

A forecast model for tourism produced by Prognos predicts strong absolute growth in GB, Germany and France. Travel market growth in Europe (WE17) will be 4.7% p.a. up to 2010. Denmark and the Netherlands are going to have average relative growth rates in tourism markets. Key drivers for industry growth are GDP-growth and the ratio of travel expenditure to household income. The share of travel expenditure to GDP varies along individual countries, but is fairly stable within time.

Tourism in general has changed during the recent years. It has gained more dynamics and become more flexible. New kinds of travel and tourism offers have appeared in the Wadden Sea Re-gion, like cultural tourism, wellness and gourmet-tourism, sportive and fun-sport tourism and nature tourism. The traditional focus and separation on single target groups has lost its relevance in tourism. The following trends have influenced tourism in recent years:

Demand side (destinations, consumer preferences): The duration of trips has been shorter. The number of flights and organized travel has been shrinking, whereas domestic travel has been on the rise. The Wadden Sea Regions have been winner destinations. Analysing the number of holiday trips (Germany outgoing) shows that the number of trips to these coastal shores has been growing modestly over the last 10 years. In mature tourist markets, organized travel will not see a growing market share. When asked for preference in surveys, customers have an unchanged preference for organized tours. Individual travel and modular booking will intensify. The share of so-called “smart-travellers” will continue to grow to 20% from today’s 5%, to the disadvantage of traditional tourists.

Supply side (Online, tourist regions, products): Today 10% of travellers have online-booking experience. This number will climb to 25% in the long-term perspective. The trend to late-booking and shorter trips will continue. Planning requirements will be continuously high for the industry. Individuality and self-realization are among the most important aims in life. Tourist demand becomes more individual and specific offers for sub-groups and customer segments should be developed. From many studies in tourism research, we know that travel experi-ence and barriers towards a destination are strongly negatively correlated. A priority therefore should be to direct marketing activities to first-time visitors.

More or less five types of travel will expect the highest growth for tourism in the future. These driving forces will be:

− wellness/fitness holidays − study trips / cultural travel − city trips − hiking/trekking holidays and − cruises and luxury holidays.

Table 64: Perspectives of travel types in future

Type of travel Growth as-sessment --/-/o/+/++

Substantiation

Wellness-/fitness holiday ++ Health remains an important consumer trend Study trip / cultural travel ++ Authentic experiences are “in”; growing share

of older singles request culture travel City trips ++ Attractive for short trips, more many-sided tripsHiking/trekking holiday ++ Trendy for all age groups Cruises and Luxury holidays ++ Hybrid smart shoppers like luxury Education travel / language study + Opportunities through added value “Club”-holiday + Uncomplicated Sport and activity holiday o/+ Consumer trend individualization, health Sun & beach - Mass market with limited growth potential,

shrinking number of people under age 25

Prognos AG, ZEIT Reisestudie 2002

The growth markets wellness/fitness holiday and cruise tours are strongly represented in the Wadden Sea Region. Also the aging population will have a positive consequence for the Wadden Sea Re-gion with regard to an increasing demand. Actually the Wadden Sea Regions are well prepared in the area of tourist attractions and ser-vices for older people.

The demographic shift in the population means older people relative to the whole population. But this does not necessarily imply a growing demand for sun & beach holidays at the North Sea. Tomorrow’s older people are used to air holidays, low-cost carriers, etc., and are not supposed to change their travel behaviour in the future. Habitual travel behaviour and a growing number of holiday homes in Mediter-ranean countries are strong indicators. Older people (age 60-69) have the same travel intensity as younger people. Only beyond the age of 70 do people begin to travel less. That means the aging popu-lation has no negative consequence for the travel market volume. Conclusion: As in many other areas, experience-orientation and emo-tional experiences are also important in tourism.

But despite promising perspectives for tourism in the Wadden Sea Region, improvements could be necessary for the region to be more active in the long-term view. The image of the Wadden Sea Region and its tourist attractions could be brought better to market by a common launch in Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands. The attractions and tourist offers in the Wadden Sea Region and their hinterland (combined programme of city trips, e.g. in Ham-burg, Bremen, Amsterdam and in WSR) should be integrated into a better network. The coastal tourist offers should be linked with adverse weather programmes (museums and city trips). Sailing will be an important vacation form in future, especially in Germany and the Netherlands.

5.9 Overall summary of service sectors

Service industries represent a large and expanding sector of the economy. Indeed, since at least 1980 they have been the only area of activity in which there has been net job creation of any substance. The service industry encompasses an extremely wide range of activities, occupations and types of organisations. From a broad perspective the largest single division by far is the wholesale and retail trade employing 15% of all employees. Other large em-ploying services are health & social activities (11-16%); transport & communication (6-7%) and business services (7-14%).

It is difficult to generalise on the characteristics and performance of most service activities. Information on the sector, except for em-ployment, is difficult to collect because of its fragmented nature and small average size of undertaking. It encompasses a very het-erogeneous group of economic activities, throwing together ser-vices provided by private business with government activities, of-ten having little in common except that their output tends to be rather intangible. Employers range from the large “public” organi-sations (both local and national) providing services in administra-tion and regulation, education, health and welfare and transport, and private sector companies like multiple retailers, banks and other financial institutions scattered throughout the region, through undertakings providing a myriad of industrial, technical, business and consumer services, to the independent retailer, professional practice, charity societies, fast food restaurants or hairdressers.

Compared with the three states’ aggregate economies, under-representation in the Wadden Sea Region’s service sectors is par-ticularly marked in many of the “white collar” and the generally higher value added private sector or market activities. These in-clude the financial services and many of the business services, such as real estate activities, computer services, leasing, technical and professional services and research and development. The broad service functions with a somewhat stronger presence in the Wadden Sea Region include health and social activities, public administration and hotels & restaurants (largely reflecting the im-portance of tourism).

The analysis of main service sectors has shown different growth perspectives of the service sector in the Wadden Sea Region. In general, the service sector is important, employing currently two thirds of the total labour force. In future the share will increase by adding about 100,000 new jobs up to 2020. The analysis showed that profound structural changes in public authorities and public governments are to be expected, followed by job cuts.

The process of further tertiarisation of European economies and the rise of service jobs is driven by several factors of influence. These factors are:

Deindustrialisation (cut of industrial employment) and further rationalisation by automation of manufacturing,

The concentration of industrial enterprises on core activities, which accelerate the process of outsourcing of activities from industrial sectors to business sectors.

The trend of substitution of human resources by capital re-sources is in most service sectors lower than in industrial sec-tors. The opportunities for rationalisation and increasing pro-ductivity are severely limited. Among other things, this explains the missing reduction of employment in service sectors.

Due to the increase of leisure time, the social demand for ser-vices will rise. This trend influences the sub-sectors tourism, wellness, health care and social services.

The demand for external support and advice in processes of management and business control will increase because of the trend towards more complex and knowledge intensive frame-works. This trend will influence among other things the devel-opment of business services.

One main socio-economic trend, which accelerates the tertiari-sation of industries, is demographical change. The population is West European regions is aging due to medical improve-ment and the proportion of older population is gradually in-creasing. The more intensive demand for nursing care accel-erates the development of health and social services.

The consequences of these basic trends explain the indicated de-velopment of tertiarisation of this chapter. In future three groups of service sectors emerge with different developments:

Public administration belongs to the first group, which bears on shrinking employment levels. By relocation and reform of military forces (esp. navy) in WSR and streamlining of public budgets the number of jobs in public administration will decline by about 6,800.

The second group are service sectors with a moderately posi-tive development. The number of jobs will increase constantly up to 2020, influenced by a higher increase of GDP than in-crease of productivity. The sub-sectors retail and wholesale with the addition of about 5,000 jobs up to 2020, transport and communication (4,600 jobs) and education (1,700 jobs)

belong to this group. The perspectives for these sub-sectors are favourable.

Two sectors belong to the third group, which constitute the driving forces for new development in WSR. The business services (about 39,000 new jobs until 2020) and social and health services (40,500) are the sub-sectors with the highest increase of employment in the future. The strong growth per-spectives of both sub-sectors are caused by main trends, like outsourcing, demographical changes or knowledge manage-ment.

Figure 48: Strength and weakness of common service sector

Strength

Fast growth and new jobs in most sub sectors. Driving forces of develop-ment are outsourcing of industry, ag-ing population, increase of living stan-dards

The growing sub-sectors tourism, trade, public administration and health care are more strongly repre-sented in WSR than in respective countries.

Synergies for wholesale and trade sector due to strong strength in port/logistics and food industry sector. Wholesale and commission trade form strong clusters due to the logistic centres at the ports

Uniqueness of nature and land-scape as a potential for the tourism sector and health care and social sys-tems. Older people prefer the WSR as attractive living location.

In suburban areas (like Stade, Noord-Holland) the WSR benefits by spill-over effects from cities Hamburg and Amsterdam. Chance for business services to gain ground in WSR.

Tourism supports economic activities in rural areas (e.g. retailing)

Weaknesses

Rigorous reforms and relocation of public administration (civil and military part) expected within me-dium-term view.

The fast growing sectors (e.g. business service) are under-represented in WSR, so that other regions will grow faster

Weaknesses is academic educa-tion, the WSR depends on import of high potentials in several cases. E.g. the German region does not dispose of its own university.59

High competition and price and cost pressure in nearly all sub-sectors. Concentration proc-esses will go on (e.g. retail sector)

In the goods transport sector, there already exist congestion problems

Business services have the ten-dency to locate and concentrate in large cities and suburban areas with high availability of highly qualified employees and high level of infrastructures.

59 Exception: the small University Westküste in Heide.

Flexibility and adaptability of small and medium-sized businesses

Due to globalisation, moderate devel-opment of transport prices and good traffic infrastructure the transport and communication industry will continue its growth process.

Especially the port locations of the Wadden Sea Region will continue to profit from worldwide procurement and manufacturing as well as the ris-ing commodity flows.

The application of modern technolo-gies, like mobile solutions and Inter-net, will grow for businesses and households and support peripheral areas

Area-wide primary support with business services is ensured

The demographic change will make the health care and social activity sector one of the strongest growing sectors in the region

The growth markets wellness-/fitness holiday and cruise tours are strongly represented

The higher education system of the Wadden Sea Region is below the average of the respective ag-gregate economies.

Prognos AG 2004

6. Summary and conclusion

6.1 Overview of analysed sectors

Overview of the primary sector

The agriculture and fishery sector is highly pronounced in WSR. About 55,000 people are working in the fishery and agriculture sector, which translates to an employment share of 5% of the working population. This sector has a high importance for the food processing industry, which is linked by regional supply chains of food processing. The economic relevance of fisheries is with about 2,000 employees relatively clear. However, fishery has a high rele-vance for tourism and the fish processing industry, which is mostly located in Bremerhaven, Cuxhaven and Esbjerg. The cutter and coastal-fishery in WSR is running combined fishery but most of the fishermen have specialised in fishing for shrimps and mussels. The deep sea fishery sector in the North Atlantic and worldwide is facing the problem of declining stocks and over fishing. Essential stocks of certain species have suffered a substantial and unrelent-ing decline.

Overview of agriculture

The agriculture sector has been affected by several continuing economic processes that are results of structural changes. The concentration process in the agricultural production has increased, the average size of holdings has grown and farms become more specialised, favouring monoculture. Every fifth farm was either closed or absorbed by other farms during the 90s. Modern kinds of “high-tech” farms have been developed which are extremely pro-ductive and need an enormous input of resources. These modern farms stand vis-à-vis organic farms, which occupy the small mar-ket of ecological products (market share about 3%). The extremes of these agricultural methods indicate the differences on the con-sumer side. During the nineties, the agricultural sector in the Wad-den Sea suffered a loss of 15,500 jobs. This reduction means a cut of nearly every fourth job within 10 years. The horticulture and green house plantation is an exception, which during the 90s achieved an increase of about 1,200 new jobs, mainly created by labour-intensive agriculture with higher value-added.

High concentration of agriculture sectors prevail in Fryslân (NL), Groningen, Kop van Noord-Holland (esp. green houses in Kop van Noord-Holland), “Unterelbe” area and Schleswig-Holstein (esp. dairy farming and stock farming). The agricultural key products of the WSR are beef and pork meat, potatoes, vegetables, milk/dairy and wheat. In 2003 the fundamental reform of the Common Agri-

cultural Policy (CAP) was adopted. The reform will completely change the way the EU supports agriculture sector. In future, the vast majority of subsidies will be paid regardless of the volume of production. Due to reduction of EU subsidies, shutdown of farms and pressure by new member states of the European Union, agri-culture has to orientate more strongly to new markets and other segments in future.

Overview fishery:

Fishery is an integrative part of the region, as regards fishing grounds (inshore fishery), sales/processing, region’s cultural ex-pression and tourist attraction. The cutter and coastal fishery, though mostly operated as a combined fishery, is mainly special-ised in shrimp and mussel fishery. In 2000 about 1,500 employees worked in the fishery sector of the Wadden Sea Region. Although the economic relevance of the fishery sector in the region as a whole is relatively low, indicated by a 0.2% share in total employ-ment of the Wadden Sea Region, especially the fish processing sector is of higher local relevance in certain locations, such as Cux-haven (labour force in fishery & processing: 4%), Bremerhaven (6%) or Esbjerg (3%).

Fishery has been affected by strong processes of rationalisation that led to a severe cut of 500 jobs. Today less than 20% of the employees work on the fish-trawlers of the deep sea fishery fleet. The majority of the employees work in the cutter deep sea and coastal fishery. More than 80% of the businesses of the inshore and cutter fishery are run as family business with usually not more than one boat. EU and national modernisation programmes have led to more modern and efficient fleets, especially in the Nether-lands, but there is still a larger share of old ships in Germany and Denmark.

Most of the fishermen of the German Wadden Sea Region have specialised in shrimp fishing. Regarding the facts that the shrimp fishery accounts for about 50% of total turnover of the cutter and coastal fishery and that the enterprises mainly run as combined fishery, shrimp fishery can be seen as main economic basis for the small family-owned businesses in the Wadden Sea Region.

The main German harbours for the shrimp fishery fleet are Greet-siel, Norddeich, Cuxhaven, Neuharlingersiel and Accumersiel in Lower Saxony and Friedrichskoog, Büsum, Husum and Tönning in Schleswig Holstein. The Dutch shrimp fishery in the Wadden Sea Region accounts for almost 50% of the total shrimp landing value at Dutch auctions and creates an average of 200 jobs in the re-gion. The main ports for the shrimp fishery fleet in the Dutch sector are Lauwersoog, Wieringen and Harlingen.

The shrimp fishery is selling 80 to 90% of catches to the market leading Dutch traders (Heiploeg BV, Zoutkamp and Klaas Puul & Zoon BV, Volendam), which dominate about 85% of the market for shrimp processing and wholesaling. The rest is sold at local mar-kets. These trade links in shrimp fishery are one example for the strong existing cross-links of the fishery sector in the whole Wad-den Sea Region.

Mussel and cockle fishery is particularly strong in the Dutch part of the Wadden Sea Region. Cockle fishery, which takes place primar-ily in the Wadden Sea, is in terms of employment a very small sub-sector, but it accounts for about € 12 mill. turnover per year. Yerseke in the province of Zeeland is the main harbour for the mussel and cockle-fishery fleet and also by far the largest location for wholesaling and processing of mussels.

The market for crustaceans and molluscs is enormously dynamic. At present there is a small setback in economic activity, probably relating to cyclical market conditions. All in all seafood consump-tion will increase, last but not least due to the continuous wellness wave. The wellness/organic trend offers a great opportunity for the products of the Wadden Sea Region. North Sea shrimps are far ahead of the competition in taste and in quality. In this context there is no comparison with shrimps from Eastern Asia, deep-sea shrimps or aquaculture shrimps. Nevertheless it is necessary to act with caution: from the sustainability point of view processing in Morocco is very problematic. However, fish per se is organic: No interference in breeding, perfect "free range attitude", no determi-nation of feeding stuff.

There is a regional competitive advantage, but nevertheless, it re-mains under utilised. Another problem of marketing and communi-cation: Nationwide the unique product "North Sea shrimps" is still marketed too badly; the advantages of the image "organic food from the region" and the unique taste of the product should be emphasised and promoted. In addition, a further problem is the lack of willingness to pay on the part of domestic customers. A bet-ter marketing of the strengths of the products could raise the will-ingness to pay.

Finally, there is a positive economic perspective for inshore fish-ery. This testimony is based primarily on a “learning” fishery policy, which will achieve a sustainable and economically stable Wadden Sea fishery in the future and secondly on a stable demand side for fish and seafood.

Overview of industry and harbour:

Traditionally the current industrial situation of the WSR is closely connected with the development of the ports. The ports have been the origin for the foundation of industrial business like shipyards, steel and metal industry, chemical and energy industries. Eco-nomic factors for these sectors have been the natural advantages of location and the favourable conditions for transports. The WSR’s industry is mostly specialised in three sub-sectors, which are more strongly represented in WSR than in the three respective aggregate economies. These key sectors are the food process-ing industry (40,500 jobs), metal and engineering (36,700) and chemical industry (23,300). These three sub-sectors cover about 50% of the total industry capacities in WSR and are leading in dif-ferent products and niche markets.

The food processing industry, which is relatively highly devel-oped and concentrated in the German WSR with about 19,000 employees, is leading in the following basic product groups: dairy products, fish, frozen food, tea and coffee, with a relatively high concentration on domestic markets. The main competitive advan-tages of this sub-sector are the marketability, access to interna-tional ports and the lower labour costs in contrast to respective economies. Due to an aging population in the industrial countries, the future of food processing belongs to new foreign markets like Eastern Europe and new segments, like convenience food and or-ganic food.

The chemical industry in the WSR has developed mostly in three of its coastal parts. High regional concentrations of chemical indus-try are Wilhelmshaven and Stade/Brunsbüttel in the German WSR and Delfzijl in the Dutch WSR. The Dutch chemical sub-sector has specialised in basic chemicals as well as rubber and plastic, whereas the German section has specialised in crude oil and spe-cial chemical refineries. The main advantages of locations for chemical enterprises in WSR are the good ship connections, sup-plying function of the hinterlands industry and proximity to neighbouring power plants and refineries. The perspectives of the chemical industry in WSR are moderate. However, the low self-determination of chemical industry and the high stress of competi-tion with international locations indicate the risks for WSR.

The metal and engineering industry is the largest industrial sec-tor in WSR. The branches in the WSR are mostly small and me-dium-sized, supplying several large enterprises in aircraft, vehicle, and shipbuilding and wind energy. The pricing pressure and import competition will lead to a significant reduction of jobs in Germany, about 9% of the metal jobs will be cut up to 2020. There will be good perspectives in technology intensive sub-sectors and prod-ucts segments, thus there is expectation of higher growth rates in the engineering rather than in the basic metal sector. One of the

main driving forces in the interim with a high growth rate will be the wind energy supply by opening offshore markets. One of the main disadvantages of the metal sector is the handicap of losing compe-tition and relevance against plastics and other materials.

The port industry is an important cross-sectional branch of the WSR. Parts of the maritime wholesale, distribution, processing and logistics industry belong to the port sector. Port and logistics sec-tors have a high regional economic relevance. Every twelfth job in the Wadden Sea Region depends directly or indirectly on port sec-tors. The port industry has a high relevance for the chemical, en-ergy and food processing industry and agriculture. The WSR is fa-vourably positioned for competition of the future. The WSR dis-poses of direct access to three international key ports. The ports of Hamburg, Bremerhaven and Wilhelmshaven (including Jade-Weser Port) belong to Europe’s leading ports, supported by sev-eral smaller regional ports in the WSR. Large growth potential is seen in the container-segment and emerging markets like China and Eastern Europe. In future, the perspectives of container-specialised harbours are favourable, whereas the perspectives of break-bulk and bulk goods are less favourable.

Overview of energy:

The economic relevance of the energy sector is relatively high in the WSR for energy-insensitive branches (like the chemical indus-try). However, in total, the balance of the number of employees in the WSR energy sector is relatively low. Due to its high capital-intensity, liberalisation of markets by EU laws and high globalisa-tion of markets the number of energy suppliers was reduced during the 90s. The European energy markets are characterised by a high degree of concentration. Several segments of energy mar-kets, like electricity in Germany, are liberalised and benefit private households and enterprises by virtue of lower market prices.

About 6,600 people are employed, while about 2,000 employees were made redundant during the 90s. According to their national political energy concepts, the three sub-regions have specialised in different energy sources and resources. In the German WSR there are four nuclear power plants, which will be mostly de-activated by 2020. The high share of energy generation capacities of about 45% by nuclear sources in the WSR shows the key-position for the energy sector. The remaining sources of energy generation are fossil energies, like natural gas, and wind energy generation.

The Danish and Dutch WSR have large sources of natural gas and oil (both on and off-shore), which will satisfy their national energy demand during following years. But exporting these sources will lose relevance during the next years. The output could not be ex-

panded to meet new demand in other countries because of declin-ing available stocks in the North Sea and on-shore.

The increase of regenerative energies in WSR is based mainly on the dynamics of wind energy. The exploration of offshore wind en-ergy generation started in the Dutch WSR in 2002, in the Danish WSR by the start-up of Horns Rev, the first offshore wind farm sited 14-20 km into the sea, west of Blåvands Huk. Especially the German Federal government and the Danish government have developed ambitious plans to construct large capacities of wind farms in the North Sea together with private operators.

On energy markets the decoupling of economic growth from en-ergy consumption has started and will continue. The primary en-ergy demand in the EU-15 is estimated to increase by 8.5% be-tween 2000 and 2010, slowing down to 5.2% in 2010 to 2020. Up to 2020 there will occur a strong decline of nuclear energy supply. In contrast, natural gas and renewable energy sources are ex-pected to receive a significant boost as a result of policy measures and technological processes.

Overview of service sector:

The service sector is very heterogeneous and represents a large and expanding sector of the economy. The service industries en-compass an extremely wide range of activities, occupations and types of organisations. In this study the service sector contains the sub-sectors tourism, wholesale and trade, business services, edu-cation, health service and social care and public administration. Other branches (like insurances) are blinded out because of their low regional relevance for the WSR. About two thirds of the total labour force in WSR are employed in the service sector and since at least 1980 it has been the only area of activity in which there has been net job creation of any substance. The service sector will be affected by further process of tertiarisation as a result of the fol-lowing basic trends: Deindustrialisation, concentration on core ac-tivities, the increase of leisure time, an increasing demand for ex-ternal support and advice and demographical changes.

The analysis of the main service sectors has shown different growth perspectives of the service sector in WSR. In future the share of service employment will increase by adding about 100,000 new jobs up to 2020. The analysis shows that profound structural changes in public authorities and public governments are to be expected followed by job cuts. Due to relocation and reform efforts of military forces (esp. navy) and streamlining of public budgets in the WSR the number of jobs in public administration will decline by about 6,800.

Two service sectors constitute the driving forces for new develop-ment in the WSR. Business services (about 39,000 new jobs until

2020) and social and health services (40,500) are the sub-sectors with the highest increase of employment in the future. The strong growth perspectives of both sub-sectors are caused by the main trends, like outsourcing, demographical changes or knowl-edge management.

One other important branch of WSR is tourism, which is cross-sectioned like the port industry. Tourism belongs along with the ho-tel and restaurant sector partially to the sub-sectors retail, enter-tainment, health care and culture. Annually the WSR is visited by 8 - 10 mill. tourists (44 mill. overnight stays), most of them are fami-lies and seniors and stem from Wadden Sea countries. Main mo-tives to visit Wadden Sea Regions for tourists are the uniqueness of nature and the landscape of the Wadden Sea.

The remaining service sectors of retail and wholesale (addition of about 5,000 jobs by 2020), transport and communication (4,600 jobs) and education (1,700 jobs) are sectors with moderate growth rates. The perspectives for these sub-sectors are favour-able. The number of jobs will increase constantly up to 2020, influ-enced by a higher increase of GDP than increase of productivity.

Regional and sector specialisation in WSR economy

The Danish region is mainly specialised in the agriculture, fish-ery and the food industry. One important product of the food in-dustry is the processing of fish, meat and cereals. Further special-ised sectors in the Danish region are metal and engineering, es-pecially supplying gas and oil exploration activities, as well as tourism. The Danish tourism is particularly concentrated on guests for summer cottages and camping.

Like the Danish region the Dutch region is strongly specialised in agriculture and food industry. The Dutch region witnessed high dy-namic developments in the nineties in horticulture and green house plantation. The Dutch food industry in the Wadden Sea Region is focused on the processing of dairy products, meat, sugars, starches and luxury products like coffee and tea. Signifi-cant industrial sectors are metal and engineering and the paper industry. In comparison to Danish and German parts, the Dutch Wadden Sea Region is specialised in the fast growing business services (like consulting, R&D, ICT, etc.). National and interna-tional financial services providers, banking and the insurance branches have developed on a high level around the prosperous agriculture and industry sectors, supplying the Netherlands. The education sector in the Dutch WSR dominates with a share of about 7% of the employment in the labour market. This is a unique selling position for the Dutch WSR. In the German and Dutch WSR, the regional education sector is under-represented in com-parison to their respective economies.

The German Region is specialised in the agriculture, fishery and food industry with strong regional concentration on fish and fro-zen food located in Bremerhaven and Cuxhaven. The tourism sector is strongly represented in Ostfriesland and Nordfriesland, focused on hotel guests and residents of holiday flats. The industry of the German Wadden Sea Region is characterised by metal and engineering supplying regional clients in wind energy, shipbuild-ing, aircraft and vehicle construction. High regional economic rele-vance in the German Wadden Sea is attributed to the military forces of the "Bundeswehr", especially in Wilhelmshaven. The lo-gistics and port sector plays a major role for the German WSR. The key ports of the region (Hamburg60, Bremerhaven and Wil-helmshaven) have a high regional economic importance in respect of employment and foreign trade for other sectors. A specific sec-tor in the German Wadden Sea Region is the automotive industry, located in Emden.

Similarities of specialisation in Wadden Sea Region

The three sub-regions of the Wadden Sea have the specialisation in following sectors in common:

Agriculture/fishery,

Food processing industry,

Ports and logistics and

Tourism and social care. The three sub-regions of Wadden Sea Region have the specialisa-tion in typical traditional industrial sectors with low growth rates in common. The regions are under-represented in new and innova-tive sectors with high growth perspectives. This dominating sector-specific structure of the WSR handicaps growth perspectives (of employment and GDP) due to under-representation of sectors in the driving forces.

The following table is a summarising strengths and weakness analysis of sector-specific development and perspectives in the Wadden Sea Region.

60 Hamburg, not directly part of the Wadden Sea Region in this this study

Strengths

Agriculture: - agriculture is at the historic heart of the Wad-

den Sea Region and the landscape is a highly-valued regional asset, which also pro-vides employment where other job opportuni-ties are limited

- soil quality in many parts of the region is very high, climate is suitable

- large potential to specialise in high quality foodstuffs, especially in eco-products (dairy, meat, corn, fruit)

- other sectors, like mechanical engineering, wholesale and ports/logistics are directly or indirectly connected with the agricultural sec-tor.

Weaknesses

Agriculture: - sector does not grow, or only slowly - farms in the Wadden Sea Region have been

hit by low price development of agricultural products and increasing costs.

- strong dependency on subsidies - limited economic significance reduces the

possibilities to influence political and eco-nomic decisions

- alternative developments are partly limited by existing structures and sales/distribution chains

Fishery: - fishery is an inherent part of the regional

economy and regional culture and is an im-portant element of the region’s tourist attrac-tion

- consumption of fish develops positively in the long-term trend and will secure a boom in demand

- Sustainable high fish stock - operating results comparatively favourable - North Sea shrimps are without competition in

taste and in quality. In this context there is no comparison with shrimps from Eastern Asia, deep-sea shrimps or aquaculture shrimps.

Fishery: - fishery is highly dependent on EU and na-

tional regulations - regarding economic relevance and economic

strength the fishery-sector in WSR is relatively weak both in absolute and in relative terms.

- ageing fleets (requires high investments, which will be difficult for fishermen)

- weak market power of the fishermen and the strong influence of the oligopolistic structures of wholesale and processing-industry

- new resources for fishery are difficult to de-velop

- lack of a Wadden Sea Region’s ‘brand’ Industry and harbour: - still of substantial importance for the Wadden

Sea Region - close supply chains to industrial groups in

automotive, electronics, shipping and aircraft - strong food industry cluster with powerful po-

sition within the food chain, linking primary producers with retailers and final consumers

- labour costs below the respective national av-erage

- due to competitive ports good access to the European and worldwide economies.

- key ports (Hamburg, Bremerhaven and Wil-helmshaven) strengthen the trading and pro-

Industry and harbour: - major employment sectors in decline or transi-

tion; continuous reduction of jobs is to be ex-pected

- under-representation of growth sectors in the industrial structure; largely specialised in low and medium-tech markets (metal products, food industry)

- pricing pressure dominates markets - lack of R&D-oriented companies - key decision making outside the region - Missing common master plan for the ports

and variety of the individual port agencies promotes competition within the region and

duction function of WSR, smaller ports bene-fits from synergies

- Smaller ports in WSR have occupied interest-ing niche markets (automotives, feeding stuff)

- high regional concentration of chemical indus-try on maritime locations

weakens competitive position to western ports (e.g. Rotterdam)

- The hinterland traffic infrastructure (motor-ways, railroad) in the WSR has deficits, traffic connections following the coastline necessi-tate detours and are time expensive

- Partly low diversity of port-related industry (e.g. Delfzijl, Harlingen, Wilhelmshaven, Em-den), which generates susceptible monostruc-tures to risk

Energy: - a good base for enterprise development

based on natural resources - The energy generation in the WSR is deter-

mined by the energy supply of the key sectors like chemical industry and basic metals (e.g. production of aluminium)

- strong supply function for the three countries regarding the energy demand

- combination of coastal locations, and port ca-pacities lead to location advantages for new investments in energy capacities

Energy: - The abandonment of nuclear power in Ger-

man WSR will cut about 1,400 jobs in energy sector in long-term view. Locations Brokdorf, Brunsbüttel, Stade and Unterweser are af-fected.

- low competence in managing and controlling this sector. WSR’s energy sector becomes construct mostly from outside the region.

Services: - fast growth and new jobs in most sub-sectors - area-wide primary support with business ser-

vices is ensured - wholesale and commission trade are forming

strong clusters due to the logistics centres at the ports

- in suburban areas (like Stade, Noord-Holland) the WSR benefits by spillover effects from cit-ies Hamburg and Amsterdam. Chance for business services to gain ground in Wadden Sea Region

- uniqueness of nature and landscape as a po-tential for tourism sector and health care and social systems

- the growth markets wellness/fitness holiday and cruise tours are strongly represented

- flexibility and adaptability of small and me-dium-sized businesses

Services: - a lower level of employment growth than the

national average - strong dominance of public and military ser-

vices in WSR with reduction tendency - fast growing sectors (e.g. business service)

are under-represented, so that other regions will grow faster

- in the goods transport sector there already ex-ist congestion problems

- business services have the tendency to locate and concentrate in large cities and suburban areas with high availability of highly-qualified employees and high level of infrastructures.

- higher education system of the Wadden Sea Region is represented below the average of respective countries.

6.2 Perspectives of WSR development

This forecast is the perspective of a probable scenario, which is based on the Prognos World Report 2002. According to unpredict-able developments and events61 the number of new jobs can vary.

Realistic growth scenario of WSR up to 2020

Assuming that worldwide fortunate economic conditioned will arise between 2000 and 2020 about 100,000 to 110,000 new jobs could emerge in the Wadden Sea Region. In future the creation of new jobs in relatively young branches will be combined with changes of working conditions. In contrast to previous employ-ment, new workplaces will mainly be part-time jobs. Especially in service sectors, like trade, health care and social activities, the share of part-time jobs will rise above average.

Figure 49: Balance of forecasted employment effects in total WSR until 2020

40.500

39.000

5.000

4.600

2.900

1.700

-6.800

-4.700

-4.300

-2.800

-1.200

-17.300

-20.000 -10.000 0 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000

health & social activity

business services

trade

transport & communication

hotels & restaurants

education

public administration

food

basic metal

chemical

energy

agriculture & fishery

industry sectors

service sectors

farming


The agriculture and fishery sector will be hit strongly by further processes of rationalisation in the next years. Due to relatively slow growth rates and expected high increases of productivity, the employment of labour will decline more and more. About 17,000 jobs will be cut in agriculture and fishery up to 2020.

61 unpredictable events and developments in case of worldwide crises, exorbitant increase in price of crude oil, consider-

able fluctuations of US dollar, etc.

Opportunities

Agriculture: - new markets (e.g. direct marketing of agri-

cultural products, supply of weekly markets or farm holidays) are possible options espe-cially for small and medium-sized farms. For larger competitive farms and agricultural holdings the eastern enlargement will pre-sent new market perspectives

- Tourism plays an important role as a signifi-cant support of farmer’s income and is an important economic factor for rural areas. The growth perspectives of holiday farms are not exhausted yet.

- promising perspective is cultivating of re-newable primary products, especially bio-mass and bio-diesel. A stable and promising trend is organic farming

- promote high-value, quality and healthy ag-ricultural commodities.

- labelling and branding could be another op-tion to strengthen or to launch regional spe-cialities.

- opportunities for nature and landscape management

Threats

Agriculture: - CAP and trade reforms leading to a further

deterioration in agricultural competitiveness - production of organic food can only continue

as long as the producers are able and willing to charge a higher price, which reflects the higher production costs.

- the eastern enlargement of the EU will cause further pressure on the agricultural sector in the Wadden Sea Region due to lower labour costs and expected reduction of the level of market protection

- There is no future for bulk products. - all trends of industrial production methods

which damage the natural, wealthy image of the Wadden Sea

Fishery: - the wellness/organic trend offers a large

chance for the products of the Wadden Sea Region.

- the unique product "North Sea shrimps" is still marketed too badly; emphasise and promote the advantages of the image "or-ganic food from the region" and the unique taste of the product

- co-operative branding and marketing among sub-regions = unified front

- strengthen the connection between fishery and tourism

- developing the market for non-consumers of fish-products could be a challenge for fish-ery in Wadden Sea Region

- increased integration of primary products and retail trade in the form of narrow con-tractual relationships should be reconsid-ered

Fishery: - The Wadden Sea cutter and coastal fishery

threatens to lose fishing grounds progres-sively to other ways of utilisation

- a problem is the weak willingness of the domestic customers to pay for products

- difficulties recruiting fishermen - low legal security of fishing grounds

Opportunities Industry and harbour: - development of knowledge-based industries

because of high growth perspectives - infrastructure improvement by investment in

extension of pipeline system "Chemcoast" in Lower Saxony and Schleswig-Holstein

- Jade-Weser Port will perform the logistic ca-pacities in fast growing segment of container handling, new growth perspectives for Wil-helmshaven

- entering growing new markets in Eastern Europe

Threats Industry and harbour: - increased global competitive pressures on

the manufacturing sector leads to further job losses.

- competition and concentration processes will increase particularly due to EU enlargement

- failure to benefit from increasing globalisa-tion

- failure to develop high technology / higher-wage jobs through business development

- Risk of movement of domestic enterprises to Eastern Europe favoured by moderate tax, low labour cost and high level of sub-sidies.

Energy: - a good base for enterprise development

based on natural resources - renewable energy sources, especially wind

energy, will gain significant market shares in the years to come

- new perspectives for off-shore plant in North Sea

- due to its enormous natural onshore and off-shore resources of oil and gas, the Dutch and Danish WSR will be important national and European regions of energy competence.

- production of biomass and renewable re-sources present alternatives for the agricul-ture sector

- promote “energy valley” in order to use syner-gies on energy sector actively by combining available expertise and existing activities.

Energy: - the trend towards a decoupling of energy

consumption and economic growth will continue. The utilities are confronted in the long-term with shrinking markets

- refinery locations and employment in the Wadden Sea Region will decline due to stagnating demand for oil products.

- the fossil resources of natural gas and oil in North Sea and onshore will decline. The possibilities for enlarging output of fossil resources are limited.

Services: - accelerated by outsourcing processes, many

service sector jobs depend on manufacturing industries – there are close linkages between the sectors

- Due to globalisation, moderate development of transport prices and good traffic infrastruc-ture, the transport and communication indus-try will continue its growth process

- The application of modern technologies, like mobile solutions and Internet, will grow for

Services: - high competition and price and cost pres-

sure in nearly all sub-sectors. Concentra-tion processes will go on (e.g. retail sector)

- a further deterioration in rural service pro-vision

- increased competition for tourism-related expenditure

- reforms and relocation of public admini-stration (civil and military part) expected within medium-term view

businesses and households and support pe-ripheral areas

- The demographic change will make the health care and social activity sector one of the strongest growing sectors in the region

- increasing demand for sustain-able/environmental tourism and cultural indus-tries

- developing unique tourism concepts on basis of an outstanding natural environment in parts of the region

- Recreation as special and unique motive for tourism in WSR

- Continued growth in business services, tour-ism, trade, public administration and health care

- Synergies for wholesale and trade sector due to enormous strength in ports logistics and food industry sector

In the industry sector the process of automation and reduction of industrial jobs continues. Traditional branches and sectors (like pe-troleum, textiles/leather; electricity, gas and water) with low pro-ductivity and high labour-intensity resp. low competitive edge to foreign providers will be hit hard by structural change. The reduc-tion of jobs is normally contrary to the growth of GDP. In the Wad-den Sea Region about 13,000 jobs will be cut in the key sectors metal, food, chemical and utility, followed by a reduction in other sectors.

In the service sectors, new jobs will be generated. Apart from pub-lic administrations, most service sectors create new jobs. Espe-cially two main sectors will add most new jobs. The sectors health and social care and business services will benefit most from the development. About 40,000 new jobs will be created in both sec-tors up to 2020. In future the business services will benefit from two main trends: further processes of outsourcing of business ac-tivities (like advertising, accounting, ICT-solutions, legal advice) and increase of knowledge and complex working processes. The sector health and social care will benefit from an aging popula-tion. The increase in the older population will generate a new de-mand for social services. Due to few means of rationalisation in the social care services new jobs will be generated on a large scale.

The perspective scenarios between the three sub-regions vary due to different degrees of specialisation in the growing sectors and dif-ferent economic growth rates of the three national economies. The

following sub-chapter will show the different development perspec-tives in the Wadden Sea’s sub-Regions.

Dutch Wadden Sea – favourable growth perspectives

The Dutch Wadden Sea Region will have the best perspective for growth of GDP and employment in regional comparison. The re-gion is well prepared for structural changes of the future, as the high concentration degree of business services indicates.

The Dutch region is dominated by service sectors and cuts in in-dustrial and agricultural jobs will stay in moderate frame. Three service sectors with high growth perspectives for the future domi-nate the region. The sectors business services, health and so-cial activities and trade/retail could provide approx 55,000 new jobs in Dutch Wadden Sea up to 2020. These sectors could be the drivers of total business development in the Dutch WSR.

Danish Wadden Sea - moderate growth perspectives

The Dutch Wadden Sea Region is relatively well prepared for structural changes. The region will stay at a stable employment level, unless energy and offshore exploration capacities are re-moved. The dominating sectors (food industry, metal and engi-neering, agriculture/fishery) will suffer a cut of between 10% and 20% of jobs up to 2020.

Large growth perspectives will be expected for the sector "hotels & restaurants" (about 2,500 new jobs), health care and social activi-ties and business services (each about 1,800 to 2,000 new jobs). In general, by 2020, the balance of gains and losses of jobs will stay on a more or less stable employment level.

German Wadden Sea – reduction of employment

In contrast to friendly Dutch and moderate Danish perspectives, the German WSR will be challenged by structural changes in in-dustrial sectors. The region will lose approx. 8,000 to 9,000 jobs in chemical, food, metal and energy sectors up to 2020, followed by a decrease of about 16,000 jobs in agriculture and fishery and a fur-ther decline in public administration caused by rationalisation and relocations of military forces. The leading competence of the Ger-man WSR in automotive and aircraft industries could come under pressure due to the international focus for new investments of key players located in the region.

In contrast to the Dutch region, the German WSR does not enjoy the best starting conditions. The service sectors with the highest growth perspective (esp. business services) are represented sig-nificantly below national average. Up to 2020 a growth of new ser-

vice jobs is to be expected for hotels and restaurants, health care and social activities and also business services. About 25,000 new jobs could emerge in these sectors. From a general point of view, a further reduction of the total employment is to be expected in the German region up to 2020. However, the devel-opment will hit some but not all German sub-regions. Winners will be the suburban areas and regions with a healthy economic struc-ture, the main losers are the old industrialised cities of Bremer-haven, Wilhelmshaven, Emden with further job cuts and a shrink-ing population.

The following figures 50, 51 and 52, represent a summary of the perspectives portfolio for the Wadden Sea Region. The figures in-dicate the degree of specialisation resp. concentration of the most important sectors in the Dutch, Danish and German Wadden Sea Region. The so-called ratio of localisation expresses the proportion of regional sector-specific employment share in comparison to the national employment share of each sector (ratio = 1.5)62. On the x-axis is shown the forecast of employment up to 2020 in percent. The size of the circles indicates the current importance of the sec-tors by employment.63

62 This means if a sector represents a ratio of 1.5 it indicates that its regional importance is 1.5 times higher than the na-

tional average. 63 Example of reading for the Dutch Wadden Sea region: There is a strong specialisation of health and social acivities in

the region (ratio 1.2, which means that it is 1.5 times higher than the national average). It is with 59,000 persons one of the most important sectors by employment (size of circle) and the forecast amounts to an increase of 47%.

Figure 50: Specialisation and perspectives of Dutch WSR

Fore

cast

ofse

ctor

sin

Dut

chW

adde

nSe

a re

gion

0

0,51

1,52

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

010

2030

4050

grow

th o

fem

ploy

men

t200

0-20

20 in

%

ratio oflocalisation region-nation

food

chem

ical

pape

r,pu

blis

hing

met

alpr

oduc

tsel

ectri

cal

basi

c m

etal

sR

etai

l/Tra

deH

otel

s &

Res

taur

ants

Tran

spor

t &C

omm

unic

atio

nBu

sine

ss S

ervi

ces

Educ

atio

nH

ealth

&So

cial

Act

iviti

esP

ublic

adm

inis

tratio

nAg

ricul

ture

+fis

hery


Figure 51: Specialisation and perspectives of Danish WSR

Fore

cast

ofse

ctor

sin

Dan

ish

Wad

den

Sea

regi

on

0

0,51

1,52

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

010

2030

4050

grow

th o

fem

ploy

men

t200

0-20

20 in

%


food

chem

ical

pape

r,pu

blis

hing

,woo

dsba

sic

met

als

othe

r man

ufac

otrin

g

Ret

ail/T

rade

Hot

els

& R

esta

uran

tsTr

ansp

ort &

Com

mun

icat

ion

Busi

ness

Ser

vice

sEd

ucat

ion

Hea

lth&

Soci

al A

ctiv

ities

Publ

icad

min

istra

tion

Agric

ultu

re+

Fish

ery


Figure 52: Specialisation and perspectives of German WSR

Fore

cast

ofse

ctor

sin

Ger

man

Wad

den

Sea

regi

on

0

0,51

1,52

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

010

2030

4050

grow

th o

fem

ploy

men

t200

0-20

20 in

%


food

chem

ical

pape

r,pu

blis

hing

rubb

er,p

last

ics

mac

hine

rym

etal

prod

ucts

elec

trica

lTr

ansp

ort &

Com

mun

icat

ion

Ret

ail/T

rade

Hot

els

& R

esta

uran

tsBu

sine

ss S

ervi

ces

Educ

atio

nH

ealth

&So

cial

Act

iviti

esPu

blic

adm

inis

tratio

nAg

ricul

ture

+fis

hery


6.3 Strategy and recommendation

From an economic viewpoint the WSR has five key issues where improvements are necessary. These fields comprise:

Agriculture

Fishery

Industry and harbour

Energy

Services

Agriculture

Challenge and areas of development: Due to an expected re-duction of agricultural EU subsidies, a stagnation of population growth in the WSR as well as a strong competition with low-wage countries (Eastern Europe) WSR’s sectors are mostly endangered.

Conclusion and strategy: The WSR should focus their foodstuff and product range more strongly towards high-value markets, brands and organic products. The standardised mass market of foodstuff production with low prices and margins will be a phase-out model for the region in the long-term view. Future of domestic food industry belongs either to R&D based high-tech food process-ing (biotech, gene technology) or organic or traditional products for regional markets. The food supply-chain in the Wadden Sea Re-gion could be organized and linked under a co-operation and label-platform, for example “Produced in Wadden Sea Area”. This label could help to perform the image and publicity of domestic food products, brands and companies and could bring tourism in Wad-den Sea Region forward. Products under this label could be sub-ject to strict quality controls.

Farmers should try to find new possibilities for broadening their in-come basis by occupying new markets and product and service di-versification. Combining traditional subjects, like agriculture and tourism in case of agro-farming, could generate new income in ag-riculture sector. Other new tasks and areas to generate additional income nature and landscape management (esp. due to CAP-reforms), direct selling, and generation of renewable resources. Farmers should increase their economic efficiency by utilisation of synergies and economies of scale. Useful activities could be co-operation between farmers and common use of private contractors with modern equipment.

Fishery

Challenge and areas of development: Worldwide the deep sea fishery sector is facing the problem of declining stocks and over fishing. This problem and the further trend of fish processing on board of large fish trawlers will challenge the onshore fish process-ing industry in WSR. Otherwise the coastal fishery in Wadden Sea will be confronted by losing fishing grounds due to other kinds of utilisation (e.g. wind energy farms).

Conclusion and strategy: The opportunity to connect the fishery with tourism should be initiated. For example the "Route of North Sea " or "Route of the North Sea shrimps" could be reactivated fol-lowing example of successful strategies in other regions. Probably such a strategy could open new possibilities for direct selling of catches like "on board sales". Currently the coastal and cutter fish-ery mostly sells directly to the trade by way of cutter co-operatives (e.g. cutter co-operative Cuxhaven). Further measures for fishery could be the initiation of labelling and branding of the regional fish products, further developing the market of non-consumers for fish-products (esp. in Germany), the enlargement of aqua farming, the concentration on high-value segments of fish and the protecting of fishing grounds in the North Sea.

Fishery in Wadden Sea could benefit and take part in increasing European and worldwide markets for fish and seafood.

Industry

Challenge and areas of development: The industry in WSR will come under pressure due to increasing competition with Eastern European regions. These regions are interesting areas for new in-vestments because of moderate tax rate, lower labour costs, lower bureaucracy and higher level of subsidies. From a general view-point, rates of return for industrial production are higher in these regions than in the WSR. This development will threaten the exis-tence of industry in the WSR seriously and strategies are neces-sary to improve these shortfalls.

Conclusion and strategy: The conditions for further economic development and growth in key industrial sectors of WSR should be excellent and favourable. The public authorities in WSR should have an agenda to manage public administration, entrepreneurial, concentrate economic key-players by cluster management strate-gies and realise planned investments quickly. The pipeline-system “chem-coast”, for example, which could be an important improve-ment for costal key producers of chemicals to facilitate support to hinterland undertakings, should be realised.

The WSR has perspectives around some interdependent large-scale industries and clusters. Therefore key-actors of these clus-

ters, like important local suppliers, scientists and others, should come together under the process of cluster management. This gives the opportunity to use synergies and create common “win-win” situations for economic players. The strategy of business de-velopment in WSR should improve the competitive situation of en-terprises (by cluster management, etc.) and help develop new products and open new markets (technology and foreign trade). Areas suitable for cluster-managements in WSR should be the agro-food chain, metal/engineering and automotives (esp. in German WSR), ports/logistics and trade as well as chemicals and energy industry.

In these clusters, the WSR has the strongest opportunity to be-come “center of excellence” in special fields. Generally, in indus-trial countries the future belongs to high-tech orientated products and processes. The processing of more technological and more value-added products by the industry gains benefit from favorable development perspectives. Otherwise, without this orientation, the continuation of structural changes with high job cuts is to be ex-pected. But for the purpose of favorable cluster development sev-eral forward-looking measures have to be carried out and ex-panded in WSR. The main area of intensifying business develop-ment will be knowledge transfer between key actors. The universi-ties of applied sciences, R&D-institutes, business services and large and medium-sized enterprises are the main target groups for further co-operation and knowledge transfer.

Harbour

Challenge and areas of development: The Wadden Sea Region and its important hinterland ports (like Hamburg) constitute an im-portant logistics platform and hub in Central Europe. Due to global-isation, increasing transport volume and international division of labour, the logistics and the ports sector in WSR will grow further. The competition with other European ports (esp. Rotterdam, Ant-werp) is getting stronger, because of new infrastructure invest-ments (Maasvlakte), cost advantages and lower regulation density.

Conclusion and strategy: The Wadden Sea ports, especially the smaller ports without Hamburg, Bremerhaven and Wilhelmshaven, should co-operate and make use of the synergies of their speciali-sation on different kinds of cargo categories. Infrastructure plan-ning, concluding contracts with larger express companies and do-mestic key-players could be accumulated by a common platform of ports in the Wadden Sea. The plans for port investments and de-veloping strategies of ports in WSR should be balanced and close to a common port concept or master plan. It is important, espe-cially for smaller ports, not to miss the rapid development of con-tainer cargo. The foundation of the platform “Seaports of Nieder-sachsen” could co-operate e.g. with other ports of the region. Good infrastructure equipment, handling and further transport of

trans-shipped goods are basic prerequisites for the development of the sector and new growth. In the WSR the planned infrastructure project Jade-Weser Port should be realised under environmentally compatible terms.

Further infrastructure investments and improvements are neces-sary in the field of better and faster road and rail traffic from port locations to hinterland locations. Improvements are especially pressing for traffic connections following the coastline and cross the major rivers (Ems, Weser, Elbe), where current traffic requires detours and is time consuming.

Energy

Challenge and areas of development: Energy is an important factor for the realisation of value. In spite of declining energy de-mand in recent years due to improvements in energy efficiency, the challenges in the WSR energy sector will increase. Due to de-clining capacities of fossil resources and substitution of nuclear power generation, new alternative technologies and resources have to be used.

Conclusion and strategy: In the WSR wind energy is the renew-able energy sources with the highest perspectives, followed by smaller fields of biomass and solar energy. In comparison to other regions in the respective countries, the wind energy generation in WSR has assumed a leading role. Wind energy has a substantial share in electricity production. Thanks to its well-developed tech-nology the WSR has become a cluster, consisting of operators, producers of wind energy generators, engineering companies and developers. The WSR could become a leading “center of excel-lence” in terms of offshore wind energy usage. The plans for off-shore wind farms should be realised under environmentally com-patible terms. This will favour actors in WSR to export their tech-nologies and know-how to other international markets.

Despite increasing perspectives of renewable energy, fossil-based energy will be the major pillar for energy generation. Main perspec-tives in this area belong to measures, which help to improve the ef-ficiency of processes of generation (e.g. combined power and heat systems), energy transport and energy consumption. Beside the improvement of efficiency, it is essential to reduce the levels of emission during the processing period. In future, it will be neces-sary to continue and intensify the cluster management activities started under the label “energy valley” in Dutch WSR.

Services

Challenge and areas of development: The service sector will be affected by further tertiarisation. Due to an aging population, in-creases in leisure time and an increasing trend of out-sourcing and rise of knowledge, two sub-sectors will be the winners of new job creation. The health care/social service and business services be-long to this category of driving forces. The largest opportunity for the WSR is to use the growth perspectives and optimise the frame for new development.

Conclusion and strategy: On the service sector side the WSR has to follow up two development strategies for two different target groups. The orientation towards enterprises and clusters will serve business services; the focus on domestic households and people from outside the region helps to develop the sub-sectors health care, social activities and tourism.

In the field of business services, the possibility of developing measures are limited because of heterogeneity of the sub-sector and large number of market players. However, several trends could be used by business development, which would help to cre-ate better growth perspectives. The access of business services to key-clients, who belong to the described industry cluster in WSR, could be improved. By observing large companies outsourcing ac-tivities new perspectives, could be generated for local providers of business services. Furthermore, local authorities could create at-tractive locations in modern business areas and technology parks for relocating business enterprises of this sector. Especially the suburban areas close to the metropolis Hamburg and Amsterdam could follow up these measures, where enormous growth perspec-tives exist, caused by the process of suburbanisation. The close-ness and connection to universities and R&D institutes could be a magnetic factor for new business settlements.

Several measures should be harnessed to improve the framework in the sub sectors health care and social activity. The largest synergies and perspectives come from the combination with tour-ism. The WSR could be more strongly developed as European residence for older people, including temporary residence (tourism as asset in WSR and permanent home (health care as asset). The offers in both cases (tourism and health care) should be more strongly orientated towards older people and special target groups should be identified. Advanced market research studies could help to identify gaps in the current service spectrum, define the target groups and reveal connection factors for marketing.

Outlook and process

Preparing this study has identified several areas of development and presented some suggestions for improving the WSR’s econ-omy. Further research is necessary to analyse these recommen-dations in detail and develop them further with local experts of the region. This study has revealed that the whole WSR has perspec-tives for new development. For WSR it is essential to move on the right track for the future.

The analysis came to the result that the common Wadden Sea Region is relatively different in terms of branch focus and product categories. For further development of concepts and economic projects, it is important to act on the practical regional level. Fol-lowing the bottom-up-approach on the level of sub-regions could help to launch new projects faster and more successfully.

However, several projects and improvements should be realised on the level of a common policy for the Wadden Sea Region, be-cause of synergies and larger scope for the entire region. The launch of a common product label, like “Product of Wadden Sea Region”, for food products and tourism could be a practical project for the entire WSR, which would emphatically help to improve the region’s image and perception outside the Wadden Sea Area.

7. Annex

7.1 Supplementary tables

Table 65: Classification of vessels by power and tonnage

1997 NUTS II NUTS III EU / Internat-

ional * Number of vessels GT kW

E 9 7,176 11,316Bremerhaven, KS T 1 2,172 3,700

Bremen

Total 10 9,348 15,016Aurich E 60 2,192 11,351

E 50 2,254 10,739Cuxhaven T 3 7,361 10,060

Emden, KS E 7 700 2,872Friesland E 11 493 2,417Leer E 11 1038 3,658Wesermarsch E 16 811 3,564Wilhelmshafen KS E 1 5 48Wittmund E 25 608 4,191

Niedersachsen

Total 184 15,461 48,900Dithmarschen E 97 3,717 15,817Nordfriesland E 87 3,242 12,265Pinneberg E 30 232 1,489Steinburg E 31 222 694NA E 3 6 59

Schleswig-Holstein Westcoast

Total 248 7418 30,324Groningen Delfzijl E 7 203 1,095 Ov. Groningen E 47 2,505 9,372Fryslân N.Fryslân E 41 2,226 7,930 Z.W.Fryslân E 8 1,432 4,134Noord-Holland Kop N.Holland E 109 20,966 77,488

Denmark Sønderjylland 152 1,171 7,298 Ribe 118 21,739 46,238

7.2 Bibliography

Agricultural Economic Research Institute, Regional, socio-economic studies in the fishery sector, Germany and Austria, The Netherlands, 1999

B.A.T Institut für Freizeitforschung; BBE-Branchenreport Fisch 2002

Bankgesellschaft Berlin: Einzelhandel in Deutschland, Marktbericht 6, September 2000

BMBF, Bundesbericht Forschung 2000, Bonn 2000

Bundesminister der Verteidigung, Ressortkonzept Stationierung, Die Bundeswehr der Zukunft, 2001

Bundesministerium für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Forsten: Der Markt für ökologische Produkte in Deutschland und ausgewählten Ländern: Derzeitiger Kenntnisstand und Möglichkeiten künftiger Verbesserung der Marktinformation; Reihe A: Angewandte Wissenschaft Heft 481, 1999

Cofad, Die Küstenfischerei in Niedersachsen. Stand und Perspektiven. Studie im Auftrag des Niedersächsischen Ministeriums für den ländlichen Raum, Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Verbraucherschutz, 2004

Commission of the European Communities, Commission Staff Working Document, Euro-pean Competitiveness Report 2003, Brussels 2003

COWI, Report and assessment of socio-economic data in the Danish sector of the Wadden Sea region, 2003 Commission of the European Communities, facts and figures on the CFP, Basic data on the Common Fisheries Policy, 2001

Federal Ministry of Education and Research Germany (BMBF), Basic and Structural Data 2001/2002, BMBF-Report, 2002

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Historical consumption and future demand for Fish and Fishery products: Exploratory Calculations for the Years 2015/2030, 1999

German Ministery for Consumer Protection, Food and Agriculture, Ernährungs-und agrar politischer Bericht der Bundesregierung, 2003

Institut für Tourismus- und Bäderforschung in Nordeuropa GmbH, Marktanalyse Schleswig-Holstein Tourismus, im Auftrag des Ministeriums für ländliche Räume, Landesplanung, Landwirtschaft und Tourismus, Kiel 2001

Instituut Service Management, Toerisme in Cijfers 2003 Toerdata Noord, 2003

Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik (ISL) et al., Entwicklungstendenzen der deutschen Nordseehäfen bis zum Jahr 2015, im Auftrag des BMVBW, Bremen 2000

Keuschnigg, Kohler, Heijdra, Eastern Enlargement of the EU: Jobs, investment and wel-fare in present member countries, CESifo Working Paper No. 718 (7), 2002

MacAlister Elliott and Partners, Regional socio-economic studies in the fishery sector and the level of dependency on fishing, Denmark, 1999

N.V. NOM Investment and Development Company for the Netherlands, Knowledge ser-vice sector in the Northern Netherlands, 1998

N.V. NOM Investment and Development Company for the Netherlands, Food industry in the Northern Netherlands, 1999

N.V. NOM Investment and Development Company for the Netherlands, Chemical and rubber & plastics industry in the Northern Netherlands, 1999

N.V. NOM Investment and Development Company for the Netherlands, Logistics in the Northern Netherlands, 1997

NetForum, Nachhaltige Entwicklung des Tourismus in der Wattenmeerregion und Nutzung des Gebiets für Erholungszwecke Deutsche Fassung des Abschlussberichtes, Tönning 2000

NIW Hannover, BAW Bremen, Wirtschaftliche Entwicklung des Jade-Weser-Raums unter besonderer Berücksichtigung des geplanten Jade-Weser-Ports, Bremen 2001

Planco, Inventory and Evaluation of Socio-Economic and Socio-Cultural Data in the Ger-man Wadden Sea Region, im Auftrag des Wadden Sea Forums, Essen 2003

Prognos AG, EWI Köln, Die längerfristige Entwicklung der Energiemärkte im Zeichen von Wettbewerb und Umwelt, im Auftrag für das BMWi, Basel 1999

Prognos AG, Prognos Deutschland Report 2002-2020, Basel 2002

Prognos AG, Prognos World Report 2002, Industrial Countries 2000-2010, Facts, Figures and Forecasts, Basel 2001

Prognos AG, Prognos World Report 2002-2020, Basel 2002

Prognos AG, ZEIT-Studie Reisen 2002: Zukunftspfade der Urlaubswelt, im Auftrag der ZEIT/GWP media-marketing Hamburg, 2002

Zentralverband der deutschen Seehafenbetriebe e.V., Bericht 2002/2003, 2003

sector-specific analysis and perspectives for the wadden ......europe and asia. nevertheless, among...

Documents