secretariat of the international cotton advisory … guidlines s...-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 1977...
TRANSCRIPT
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Secretariat of the International Cotton Advisory Committee
PSAP MEETING 75th ICAC Plenary Meeting
Islamabad, Pakistan October 30, 2016
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1. Historical background 2. Apparel and Intermediate products Import Analysis 3. Strategies for the Cotton Sector to face inter-fiber competition
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1. Historical background 2. Apparel and Intermedia products Import Analysis 3. Strategies for the Cotton Sector to face inter-fiber competition
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
100 Cellulosic Non-Cellulosic Wool Cotton
Million tons
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20
30
40
50
60
70
MARKET SHARE OF COTTON IN WORLD TEXTILE FIBERS CONSUMPTION
Percentage
Average 1960-1979
Average 1980-1999
Average 2000-2016
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-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20% 19
77
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
Cotton Poly Staple Poly Filament
GROWTH OF COTTON AND POLYESTER FIBER CONSUMPTION - WORLD
% change
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0
20
40
60
80
100 19
75
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Cotton Poly Staple Poly Filament
GROWTH OF COTTON AND POLYESTER FIBER CONSUMPTION – WORLD
Million tons
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0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
Polyester Nylon Acrylic Other Fibers Cellulosic
33%
57%
80%
Million tons
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0
10
20
30
40
50 19
90
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Million tons
ROW India China
POLYESTER FILAMENT CAPACITY
13%
33%
56%
68%
74%
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Million tons
ROW India China
POLYESTER STAPLE CAPACITY
13%
27%
53% 62%
67%
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1. Historical Overview 2. Apparel and Intermediate products Import Analysis 3. Strategies for the Cotton Sector to face inter-fiber competition
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COTTON YARN TRADE Average 2011-2014
IMPORTS EXPORTS
China45%
Hong Kong
8%Bangladesh
5%
Korea4%
Turkey3%
ROW34%
India30%
Pakistan18%USA
12%
China9%
Hong Kong
5%
ROW25%
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POLYESTER YARN TRADE Average 2011-2014
IMPORTS EXPORTS Filament
Staple
Turkey17% Brazil
8%
Vietnam7%
Korea6%
Egypt5%
ROW57%
China33%
India21%
Malaysia9%
Taipei9%
Indonesia6%
ROW23%
Brazil13%
Turkey12%
Korea10%
USA6%
India6%
ROW54%
China40%
Indonesia30%
India7%
Viet Nam5%
USA2% ROW
15%
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COTTON FABRIC TRADE Average 2011-2014
IMPORTS EXPORTS
China8%
Hong Kong
8%Italy5%
USA4%
Turkey4%
ROW72%
China55%
Pakistan10%
Hong Kong8%
India6%
Turkey6%
ROW31%
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Russia8% China
8%
Brazil8%
Turkey7%
Indonesia5%
ROW65%
POLYESTER FABRIC TRADE Average 2011-2014
IMPORTS EXPORTS Filament
Staple
China56%
Korea11%
Malaysia4%
Turkey3%
Japan3%
ROW23%
Russia7% China
7%Sri Lanka
5%Hong Kong
4%Germany
3%ROW73%
China57%
Hong Kong5%
Korea4%
Germany4%
Thailand3%
ROW27%
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APPAREL TRADE
SHARES OF DEVELOPED, DEVELOPING AND CEEU COUNTRIES IN WORLD TEXTILE FIBRE CONSUMPTION
Developing
Countries 51.2%
Developed Countries
45.2%
C. and E. Europe
and former USSR 3.6%
2000
Developing
Countries 64.0%
Developed Countries
32.0%
C. and E. Europe
and former USSR 4.0%
2015
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0%
25%
50%
75%
100% 20
04
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Percentage
China Vietnam Bangladesh Pakistan Turkey Indonesia India Mexico Rest of World
MMF
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Percentage
China Vietnam Bangladesh Pakistan Turkey Indonesia India Mexico Rest of World
COTTON
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0%
25%
50%
75%
100% 20
04
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Percentage
China Vietnam Bangladesh Pakistan Turkey Indonesia India Mexico Rest of World
MMF
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Percentage
China Vietnam Bangladesh Pakistan Turkey Indonesia India Mexico Rest of World
COTTON
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0%
25%
50%
75%
100% 20
04
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Percentage
China Vietnam Bangladesh Pakistan Turkey Indonesia India Mexico Rest of World
MMF
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Percentage
China Vietnam Bangladesh Pakistan Turkey Indonesia India Mexico Rest of World
COTTON
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0.0
0.5
1.0
2004
2009
2014
Cost/Unit
China Vietnam Bangladesh Pakistan Turkey Indonesia India Mexico Rest of World World
COTTON
0.0
0.5
1.0
2004
2009
2014
Cost/Unit
China Vietnam Bangladesh Pakistan Turkey Indonesia India Mexico Rest of World World
MMF
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0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
2004
2009
2014
Cost/Unit
China Vietnam Bangladesh Pakistan Turkey Indonesia India Mexico Rest of World World
COTTON
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
2004
2009
2014
Cost/Unit
China Vietnam Bangladesh Pakistan Turkey Indonesia India Mexico Rest of World World
MMF
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0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
2004
2009
2014
Cost/Unit
China Vietnam Bangladesh Pakistan Turkey Indonesia India Mexico Rest of World World
COTTON
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
2004
2009
2014
Cost/Unit
China Vietnam Bangladesh Pakistan Turkey Indonesia India Mexico Rest of World World
MMF
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Ø Competitive Pricing and Price Volatility Ø Technology: improve in yields, lower cost of
production Ø R&D: improve cotton fiber performance against
synthetics fibers. Ø Sustainability: reduce environmental impact Ø Promotional Campaigns Ø Trade Policy
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COMPETITIVE PRICING
*Weekly quotes
US cents/lb
0
50
100
150
200
250
5-A
ug-1
0
5-Ju
n-11
5-A
pr-1
2
5-Fe
b-13
5-D
ec-1
3
5-O
ct-1
4
5-A
ug-1
5
5-Ju
n-16
Cotlook A Index
China Polyester
China Cotton Index Indian Spot
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-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50% 74
/75
79/8
0
84/8
5
89/9
0
94/9
5
99/0
0
04/0
5
09/
10
14/1
5
Season highest value
Season lowest value
Difference with respect to season average
PRICE VOLATILITY BY SEASON: Daily Cotlook A Index
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TECHNOLOGY: Improve in Yields
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1980
/81
1985
/86
1990
/91
1995
/96
2000
/01
2005
/06
2010
/11
2015
/16
Kg / ha World India China USA Pakistan
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TECHNOLOGY: Lower cost of production
0.82 1.11 1.04
1.22 1.5
1.16
0
1
2
00/01 03/04 06/07 09/10 12/13 15/16
US$/Kg Lint
India
China U.S
Brazil Pakistan
Net Cost of Lint Production - World
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RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT: improve cotton fiber performance
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SUSTAINABILITY - The Indicator framework
recommended by SEEP, provides a common language to measure sustainability in cotton production all over the world
- Change people’s perception about cotton production and show actual results and improvements by country
- Reduce environmental impact: (water, land, etc.)
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PROMOTIONAL CAMPAIGNS
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TRADE POLICY
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Thank you for your attention!