second quarter presentation 2016

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Yara International ASA 2016 second quarter results 21 July 2016

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Page 1: Second quarter presentation 2016

Yara International ASA

2016 second quarter

results

21 July 2016

Page 2: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

Safe operations is our first priority

2

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0TRI1

1) TRI: Total recordable injuries, lost time (absence from work), restricted work and medical treatment cases per one million work hours

2) OFD and Galvani included in statistics from January 2016

Page 3: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

Summary second quarter

3

Results impacted by lower fertilizer prices

Positive impact from lower energy prices and stronger US dollar

Deliveries of Yara-produced fertilizer up 8%

Continued strong production performance, especially ammonia

Gain of NOK 1.6 billion from sale of CO2 business

Improvement program: at least USD 500 million identified

Page 4: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

Earnings per share*

4

8.04

6.69 5.66

0.23

6.40

8.26

6.18 6.74

2.65

10.59

14.56

1.58

10.22

11.23

8.52

7.97

5.62

2.65

7.03 7.74 7.62

8.17

10.51 9.58

7.41

3.97

9.14

6.37

NOK 20.67 27.59 29.38 21.45

Annual 2013 2014 2015 2016

*Average number of shares for 2Q 2016: 273.5 million (2Q 2015: 275.3 million).

EPS excluding currency and

special items

Page 5: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

2Q catch-up in European fertilizer industry deliveries;

full season in line with a year earlier

5

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16

Domestic production Imports

Full-season deliveries (12m ending 30 Jun) Quarterly deliveries

Million tons N Million tons N -1%

Source: Yara estimate for fertilizer deliveries to selected West European countries.

1,703

1,881

2,353

1,653 1,613

1,832

2,303

1,749

3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q

14/15 15/16

+6%

Page 6: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

Season-to-date (1H) fertilizer deliveries

Brazil: 1H industry deliveries up 13%, Yara up 19%

6

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

1H12 1H13 1H14 1H15 1H16

Th

ou

san

ds

+13%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1H07 1H08 1H09 1H10 1H11 1H12 1H13 1H14 1H15 1H16

+47%

Season-to-date premium product deliveries Kilotons Kilotons

Source: ANDA, Yara

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

1H12 1H13 1H14 1H15 1H16

Th

ou

san

ds

+19%

Kilotons

Yara Brazil Industry Galvani Trade

Page 7: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

Yara 2Q fertilizer sales by market and product

7

2,204

1,820

640

1,031

683 515

2,293 1,986

631

1,143

569 298

Europe Brazil Latin America North America Asia Africa

2Q15 2Q16

1,141 986 1,240

1,473 1,292

438 327

1,132 1,124 1,353 1,326 1,160

483 343

Nitrate Urea Other products UAN CNCompound NPK1 Blend NPK

1) Yara-produced compound NPK and third party sourced (Total NPK minus blend NPK)

Kilotons

Page 8: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

Reduced exports from China amid lower prices…

8

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

USD/t

Urea fob Black Sea Urea prilled fob China

Urea granular fob Egypt

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

Chinese exports and urea price Declining urea pricing Black Sea

USD/t Kilotons

Source: BOABC, CFMW

Page 9: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

…and increased production elsewhere

9

2018 2017

3.0

2019 2020

3.5

2016

7.8 7.6

2.0

~3 Mt

consumption

growth

Gross capacity additions, excl. China

(mill. tonnes urea1)

Source: CRU, gross capacities, June 2016 1) Using 50% operating rate in new plants’ first year of production

Indonesia 0.7

India 0.7

Egypt 0.6

Malaysia 0.6

Mexico 0.5

Bangladesh 0.3

USA 1.7

Algeria 1.2

Nigeria 0.7

Iran 0.5

Russia 0.3

India 0.7

Malaysia 0.5

Indonesia 0.5

Mexico 0.5

Azerbaijan 0.4

Bolivia 0.3

Bangladesh 0.3

USA 2.5

Nigeria 0.7

Iran 0.5

Russia 0.3

USA 0.9

Brazil 0.6

Turkmenistan 0.6

Azerbaijan 0.4

Bolivia 0.3

Iran 0.5

Russia 0.3

Brazil 0.6

Turkmenistan 0.6

Russia 1.0

Nigeria 1.3

Algeria 1.2

Russia 0.7

Nigeria 1.3

Page 10: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

Yara Improvement Program will deliver cost and revenue

improvements throughout the organization Overview of main initiatives

10 Note: Size of boxes does not indicate relative EBITDA potential from initiatives

Production Supply Chain/Other Commercial

Plant productivity

improvement and portfolio

optimization

Crop roadmap

implementation

Small site

productivity

improvement

Sales

excellence

Brazil post

integration

improvement

program

Supply Chain

transformation

Procurement

excellence

IT

optimization

Expert

Functions

optimization

The program is expected to deliver at least USD 500 million EBITDA improvement by 2020

Page 11: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and

amortization (EBITDA)

11

4,184

4,039 3,318

1,858

3,591

4,227

3,964

4,625 4,794 5,179

7,884

3,504

5,055

5,489

4,149

4,103

3,223 2,363

3,830 4,185

4,002 4,528

5,742

5,055

4,614

3,508

5,050

3,958

2013 2015 2014 2016

NOK millions

EBITDA excluding special

items

NOK

millions 13,399 16,407 21,361 10,544

Annual

Page 12: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

EBITDA development

12

2,730

1,165

367

1,407

5,4895,179

Special

items

Currency

translation

Energy costs Price/Margin Volume

181

EBITDA 2Q15 EBITDA 2Q16 Other

81

NOK millions

Page 13: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

Lower prices mainly impact Production segment

13

1,572

1,330

335

1,693

3,133

2,120

1,605

1,330

335

360

2,976

1,923

2Q15 2Q16

EBITDA

(NOK millions)

EBITDA excluding special items

Crop Nutrition Industrial Production

Page 14: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

Lower natural gas cost in Europe

14

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16

USD/ MMBtu

TTF (1-month lag) Yara Europe

Yara European gas & oil cost Change in spot energy cost

(588)

(151)

(588)

(923)

(1,042)

(650)

(250)

(1,200)

(1,000)

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

0

2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16

NOK millions

July 2016 estimate* Actual

Source: Yara, World Bank, Argus/ICIS Heren *Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 12 July 2016

Page 15: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

Lower European nitrate premiums at end of season

15

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16

USD/t

Nitrogen upgrading margins1 (monthly publication prices)

CAN (46% N) NH3 CFR (46% N) Urea Egypt CFR proxy

Yara EU gas cost *20

Nitrate

premium

above urea

Value above

ammonia

Value

above gas

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16

European nitrate premium2 (quarterly Yara realized) USD/t

2) Yara European realized nitrate prices (excl. sulphur grades)

compared with urea publication prices (Egypt CFR proxy) with

1 month time lag. All numbers in USD per tonne of CAN equivalents. 1) All prices in urea equivalents

Page 16: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

Value above

raw material

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16

USD/t Phosphate upgrading margins

DAP, fob USG

Weighted average global

premium above blend cost

Lower commodity phosphate margins, solid compound

NPK premiums

16

1) Export NPK plants, average grade 19-10-13, net of

transport and handling cost.

Rock, fob North Africa *1.4

NH3, fob Black Sea *0.22

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16

USD/t NPK premium over blend1

DAP, CIF inland Germany

MOP, CIF inland Germany

Urea, CIF inland Germany

Nitrate premium, CIF inland Germany

Page 17: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

Net interest-bearing debt development

17

3,817

4,150

1,894

2,830

2,758

869

9,698

8,465

Yara dividend

and share

buy-backs

Investments

(net)

Net debt

Mar 16

Cash

earnings*

Net operating

capital change

Other Foreign

currency

translation

gain

122

Sale of CO2

business

Net debt

Jun 16

* Operating income plus depreciation and amortization, minus tax paid, net gain/loss on disposals, net interest expense and bank charges

NOK millions

Page 18: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

Prospects

18

Supportive farm margin outlook overall, with lower input prices

On-going production increases elsewhere displacing Chinese exports

Improved pre-buying incentives in Europe; strong Yara order book

Continued demand growth in Brazil, but P&K demand in other regions impacted by

lower crop prices

NOK ~900 million reduction in Yara’s spot-priced gas cost for next 2 quarters

Page 19: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

Additional information

Page 20: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

Strong growth pipeline

20

1) Yara’s share of capex

5.6

0.4

2.1

2015

14.4

6.0

4.2

3.3

0.9

7.4

1.9

5.6

5.6

2017

12.6

1.3

8.8

2018

6.2

2016

1.3

16.1

Committed growth

M&A

Cost&capacity improvements

Maintenance

NOK bn

Capex plan1

2) Finished fertilizer and industrial products, excl. bulk blends. Including Yara share of production in

JVs. 2015 numbers excl. Growhow UK (~300 kt)

3) Committed projects only. TAN Pilbara: 160 kt, Porsgrunn: 250kt, Glomfjord: 185kt, Uusikapunki:

250kt, Köping: 90kt, Sluiskil: net 160kt, Galvani (Salitre - 60% of ~ 2 mill.tons)

4) Excl. Growhow UK (~200 kt). Including 100% ownership in Pilbara NH3 plant

5) Rio Grande expansion ads 0.5 million tons SSP and 1 million ton blends by 2020

0.8

2.3

22.1

Production

end 2018

Committed

growth3

Regularity

improvement

18.9

Production

20152

Production growth 2015 - end 20185

0.7

8.3

7.2

Regularity

improvement

Production

20154

Production

end 2018

BASF JV

0.5

Finished fertilizer Ammonia

Mill.tons

Page 21: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

Increasing coal prices

21

CFMW Anthracite prices July 2016 (RMB/mt) CIF ARA1 November 2016 ($/mt)

1) Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp

Page 22: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

Continued strong production performance

22

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Kilotons

2016 2015 2013 2014

Ammonia1

1) Including share of equity-accounted investees

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Kilotons

Urea Nitrates NPK CN UAN SSP - based fertilizer

2015 2013 2014 2016

Finished fertilizer & industrial products1

Page 23: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

Fertilizer deliveries

23

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

Europe Outside Europe

Kilotons

2012 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016

Page 24: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

Fertilizer deliveries by product and source

24

1,240 1,353

1,141 1,132 986

1,124

1,473 1,326

438 483

1,619 1,503

2Q15 2Q16 2Q15 2Q16 2Q15 2Q16 2Q15 2Q16 2Q15 2Q16 2Q15 2Q16

Yara-produced deliveries Joint venture & third party sourced

NPK compounds NPK blends Urea UAN Other

Kilotons

Nitrate

Page 25: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

YaraMila and YaraBela deliveries

25

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16

Yara-produced YaraMila deliveries

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16

Yara-produced YaraBela deliveries Kilotons

Outside Europe Europe Outside Europe Europe

Kilotons

Page 26: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

Strong premium product deliveries in Brazil

26

1) YaraBela, YaraMila and YaraLiva deliveries

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16

378

116

188

62

235

406

147

279

48

204

294

248

296

52

201

Asia Brazil LatinAmerica excl.

Brazil

Africa NorthAmerica

Value-added fertilizer deliveries1 Value-added fertilizer deliveries1

CAGR

6%

Outside Europe Europe

2Q16 2Q15 2Q14

Page 27: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

Value-added and distribution make up larger part of Yara’s contribution

27

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

Commodity overseas

Upgrade & distribution

Trade

4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14

Commodity Europe

4Q11 2Q11 4Q10 4Q15 2Q15 2Q10 2Q16 2Q12

Total Yara contribution

Page 28: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

AdBlue deliveries

28

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16

Kilotons

Page 29: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

Industrial volume development

29

889847

829815

892859864852849

816866

819844

571538

577541540

482511

438456

382432

242

308328

385364333346

380361339367364358

3Q15 2Q15 1Q15 4Q14 3Q14 2Q14 2Q13

368

1Q14 4Q13 3Q13

374

2Q16 1Q16 4Q15

Other Environmental products Industrial N-chemicals

Kilotons

Page 30: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

Debt/equity ratio

30

0.20

0.07

-0.04

0.05

0.13

0.11

0.22

0.08

0.01

0.06

0.15

0.13 0.12

0.06 0.06

0.08

0.06

0.12

0.02

0.06

0.17 0.16

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Net interest-bearing debt / equity ratio (end of period)

Page 31: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Urea Nitrates Compound NPK Other

Yara stocks

31

Kilotons

Finished fertilizer Bunge Fertilizer

included from 3Q 2013

Page 32: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

65.5

15.5

49.9

59.5

11.3

70.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Pro

duction

Exp

ort

Do

mestic

Do

mestic

Exp

ort

Pro

duction

Million tons

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7.0

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Million tons

Source: CFMW

13/14

Increased production and lower export have boosted domestic

supply strongly so far this season

Chinese urea production Domestic urea balance

Jul-May 14/15 Jul-May 15/16

19%

14/15

15/16

32

Page 33: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

European producers’ nitrate stocks

33

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

15/16 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15

Source: Fertilizers Europe, Yara estimate for June

Index

June 2007 = 1

Page 34: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

Energy cost

34

4.0 4.4

4.0

2.8

3.7

5.2 4.6

3.9 3.8

2.9 2.7 2.7 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1

2.7 3.0

4.8

5.7

8.2 8.0 8.0 8.1

6.9

6.1 6.5

5.9 5.7 5.3 5.2

4.1 3.8 4.2

4.6 4.7

6.6

9.2 9.4

10.5 9.8

7.6 7.0

8.1

7.0 6.8 6.5

5.4

4.2 4.4 4.7

5.4

6.6

7.6

10.7 11.0 11.4 11.3

9.2

7.5

8.5

7.6 7.5 7.0

6.2

5.0 4.6

5.1 5.5

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16

US gas price (Henry Hub) Yara Global TTF day ahead (Zeebrugge 2009-2012) Yara Europe

Yearly averages 2009 – 2013, quarterly averages for 2014-16 with forward prices* for 3Q16 and 4Q16.

*Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 12 July 2016 Source: Yara, World Bank, Argus/ICIS Heren

Page 35: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

Global grain balance

35

1,950

2,000

2,050

2,100

2,150

2,200

2,250

2,300

2,350

2,400

2,450

2,500

2,550

2,600

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16E 17F

Million tons

Consumption Production

Grain consumption and production Days of consumption in stocks

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16E 17F

Days

Source: USDA July 2016

Page 36: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

Non-commercials’ net long position in corn

36

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16

Thousand contracts

Source: US Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Page 37: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

Weaker farm economics in USD, affecting particularly P

and K demand

37

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1/2004 1/2005 1/2006 1/2007 1/2008 1/2009 1/2010 1/2011 1/2012 1/2013 1/2014 1/2015 1/2016

Index

FAO price index

Cereals Price Index Cereals 5 year avg. Food Price Index Food 5 year avg.

Source: FAO

Page 38: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

Key value drivers – quarterly averages

38

277 268 250 207 198

297 281 270 233

208

2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16

Urea prilled fob Black Sea (USD/t)/Urea granular fob Egypt (dotted line, USD/t)

273 257 255 249

197

2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16

CAN cif Germany (USD/t)

2.7 2.7

2.1 2.0 2.1

2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16

US gas price Henry Hub (USD/MMBtu)

6.8 6.4

5.5

4.1 4.3

2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16

TTF day ahead (USD/MMBtu)

7.8

8.2

8.5 8.7

8.3

2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16

NOK/USD exchange rate

393 388 355

270 274

2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16

Ammonia fob Black Sea (USD/t)

Source: Fertilizer Market Publications, CERA, World Bank, Norges Bank

Page 39: Second quarter presentation 2016

IR – 21 July 2016

10-year fertilizer prices – monthly averages

39

0

200

400

600

800

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

USD/t Urea prilled fob Black Sea/Urea granular fob Egypt

Average prices 2006 - 2015

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

USD/t DAP fob US Gulf/MOP granular fob Vancouver

0

100

200

300

400

500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

USD/t CAN cif Germany

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

USD/t Ammonia fob Black Sea