SECONDORDERSCIENCE:LOGIC,STRATEGIES,METHODS

StuartA.UmplebyDepartmentofManagement

TheGeorgeWashingtonUniversityWashington,DC

Anearlytransitioninourconceptionofknowledge

• RobertBoylewaspartofaluncheonclubinLondoninthemid1600s,whichwascalledthe“invisiblecollege”

• ThisgroupbecametheRoyalSocietyofLondonfortheImprovementofNaturalKnowledgein1663

• Thisisoneindicationofatransitioninthemid1600sfromtheologicalknowledgetonatural(scientific)knowledge

RobertBoyle(1627-1691)

Acurrenttransitiontoreflexiveknowledge

• Manypeoplehavecontributedtothecurrentchangeinthinking

• HeinzvonFoerster,secondordercybernetics• GeorgeSoros,reflexivitytheoryineconomics• KarlMueller,secondorderresearch• VladimirLefebvre,ethicalcognition• LouisKauffman,knottheory• KlausKrippendorff,thereflexiveturn

HeinzvonFoerster(1911-2002)

GeorgeSoros

KarlMueller

VladimirLefebvre

LouisKauffman

KlausKrippendorff

Thebasicidea

• Sciencecanbeexpandedbyaddingtheobservertowhatisobserved

• Wecouldshiftourthinkingfromviewingscienceascreatingdescriptionsofsystemstoviewingscienceasanactivepartofsocialsystems

• Wewouldthinkabouttheco-evolutionoftheoriesandsociety

World

1

2

3

ObserverDescription

Howwethinkaboutsocialscience

• Itiseasytoacceptthattheoriesaffectsociety• Wecreatetheoriesbecausewehopethatpeoplewillacceptthem,actonthemandsocietywillperhapsoperatebetter

• However,whenwedoscience,wepretendthattheoriesdonotaffectwhatisstudied

• Weactthiswaybecausewethinkthisisthewaytocreateobjectivedescriptions

• Butwecanexpandourconceptionofscience

ThreeconceptionsofScience2

• Meta-science:combiningtheresultsofmanystudiesinordertocreatemoreholistic,moreuseableknowledge(K.H.Mueller)

• Takeadvantageoftheinternettocooperateinscientificresearchandsharingofdata(BenShneiderman)

• Takeaccountoftheobserverandexaminetheco-evolutionoftheoriesandphenomena,particularlyinthesocialsciences

Fourmodelsunderlyingscience

• Linearcausality– manystatisticalmethodsareavailable,e.g.,correlationandmultipleregression

• Circularcausality– inherentinregulation,systemdynamicsmodels

• Self-organization– AdamSmith,CharlesDarwin,complexadaptivesystems

• Reflexivity– vonFoerster,Soros,Lefebvre

Reflexivity

• Observe,decide,act,observe…• Acircularprocess• Theobserverisincluded• Operatesontwolevelsofanalysis–observationandparticipation

Examplesfromseveralfields

• Management• Sociology• Economics

Includingtheobserverisnotcompletelynew

• Thefieldofmanagementislargelyacollectionofmethods– Howtoimproveamanufacturingprocess– Howtoconductastrategicplanningexercise

• Butlittleattentionhasbeenpaidtoconnectingthisformofknowledgetothephilosophyofscience

• Reflexivitytheorymakesthispossible

Secondorderknowledgeinmanagement

• Inmanagementthereisalargeliteratureonhowtodothings,onhowamanagershouldact

• Themostusefulliteraturehasoftenbeencreatedbyconsultantsratherthanacademics

• Butmostprofessorsofmanagementattempttoemulatethephysicalsciences

• Managersoftensaythatthemanagementliteratureisnothelpfultothem

Theories Methods

No Yes

Should methods be for the use of individuals or groups?

Is there a difference between the natural sciences and the social sciences?

Should knowledge in the field of management be constructed in the form of theories or methods?

Should we reject the philosophy of science?

Groups Individuals

“Act like this”

Expand the philosophy of science to include knowing subjects

“Think like this” Popper’s doctrine of the unity of method

What should take its place? How should knowledge be constructed?

Yes No

Sociologyofknowledge

• Ourpositioninsocietyinfluenceswhatwebelieve

• Ifwearerich,societyisworkingwell• Ifwearepoor,societyisnotworkingwell• Culture,religion,andeducationalbackgroundallshapewhatweseeandhowwethink

• Hence,thereisaninteractionbetweensocietyandwhatwethink

Thenatureofknowledgeineconomics

• Economicsisthesocialsciencethathasbeenmostsuccessfulinimitatingclassicalscience

• Quantificationhasbeeneasierineconomicsthanothersocialsciences

• Economicsisnowdefinedprimarilybyitsmethodsratherthanitssubjectmatter

Equilibriumtheoryineconomics

• Physicistsatfirstdealtwithsmallnumbersofobjects– planets,pendula,billiardballs

• Butgasesinvolvemanymillionsofparticles• So,tocreatethermodynamicsphysicistslookedatgrossparameters– pressure,volume,temperature

• Economistsadoptedthismodel– imports,exports,savings,GDP

Behavioraleconomics

• Equilibriumtheoryineconomicsusestheconceptofself-organization– elementsofasystemgototheirstable,equilibrialstates

• Whenthereisadisturbance(e.g.,anewtechnologyornewlegislation),peopleseektoreturntoequilibrium

• Severalassumptions– theyseektomaximizepersonalprofit;peoplearerational;theyhaveequalandcompleteinformation

Progressinrecentyears

• Behavioraleconomicshaschallengedtheviewofhumanbeingsineconomics

• SeveralpeoplehavewonNobelPrizesbyshowingthatpeopledonotalwaysseektomaximizeprofit,thattheyarenotalwaysrational,andthattheythattheydonothavethesameinformation

Additionalassumptionsineconomics

• Thereisanother,morephilosophical,setofassumptionsthateconomistshavenotyetaddressed

• Theclassicalphilosophyofscienceassumed– Theobserverisnotincludedinwhatisobserved– Theoriesdonotaffectwhatisobserved

• Dotheseassumptionsfitthesocialsciences,ordowecreatetheoriesinanefforttochangesocialsystems?

KaletskyinCapitalism4.0

1. Alaissezfaireapproachtomacroeconomicsfollowedthestockmarketcrashof1929

2. Aninterventionistperiod,basedonthetheoriesofKeynesbeganduringthe1930s

3. Amovetowardfewerstate-ownedenterprisesandlessgovernmentregulationwasinfluencedbyHayekandFriedman

4. Latelytherehasbeenareturntothebeliefthatsomeregulationisnecessary

Thehistoryofeconomictheories

• Inthephysicalsciencestheoriesgetbetterovertime

• However,ineconomicstherearefluctuationsbetweenthebeliefthatmarketswillsolveallproblemsandthebeliefthatgovernmentinterventionisnecessary

• PerhapsthisiswhythehistoryofeconomicthoughtisnolongertaughtinmanyuniversitiesintheU.S.

Thelossofhistoryineconomics

• “Thereisnottimeenoughtoteachtheoldideas,sincethereissomuchnewstufftoteach”

• Theoldtheories,whichwereverbalratherthanquantitative,areseenasinferiortonewerideas

• Butthereseemtobefluctuationsineconomictheories?

Needforsecondordertheory

• Currenteconomictheoriesareelementsintheregulationofaneconomy

• Asecondordertheoryisneededtodescribehowfirstordertheoriesaretobeused

• Acurrenteconomictheorycanbeviewedasapartialdescriptionoratemporarydescriptionoracontextdependentdescription

• Asecondordertheoryofeconomicswouldbeacybernetictheory,atheoryofcontrolbyusingideas

Correctingunderlyingassumptions

• Behavioraleconomicsisanefforttocorrectspecificassumptionsunderlyingequilibriumtheoryortheideaofaneconomyasaself-organizingsystem

• Reflexivitytheorychallengesassumptionsaboutscience-- thattheoriesdonotaffecttheoperationofaneconomyandthatoldertheoriescanbediscarded

Secondorderscience

• Theideaofsecondorderscienceismorerelevantforthesocialsciencesthanthephysicalsciences

• Scienceitselfisasocialprocess• Cyberneticsisatheoryofinformationandregulationinsomewhatthesamewaythatphysicsisatheoryofmatterandenergy

Howtodosecondorderscience

• Anacademicdisciplinerequiresmethodswhichcanbepracticed

• Whataresomemethodsfordoingsecondorderscience?

Severalmethodsforsecondorderscience

• Theinfluencecycleissimilartothecreditcycleandtheleveragecycle

• Interactionbetweenideasandsociety,anhistoricalapproach(shoelacemodel)

• Examinesocialactivitiesintermsofideas,groups,events,andvariables

• Acomparativeapproach

Amountof+credit

+ +Lending + CollateralDebtactivity valuesservice

+ -Economic+stimulus _

Thecreditcycle

opportunitiesfor+innovation

+ +deregulationof + economicabuseofasymmetricbusinessactivity growthinformation

+ -beliefinthe+

valueofmarkets_

Theinfluencecycle

Ideas

Variables Groups

Events

A reflexive theory operates at two levels

Whypracticesecondorderscience?

• Itismorerealistic• Weceasepretendingthatsocialsystemsarelikephysicalsystems

• Newscientifictheoriesandmethodswillbeinvented

• Withalargerconceptionofsciencewewillbeabletoexplainandtoinfluenceprocesseswecouldnototherwise

Reasonsnottodosecondorderscience

• Givingupaclaimofobjectivitymeansgivingupaclaimtospecialauthority

• Theinformalfallaciescautionagainsterrorsinlanguage,emotionandthought– Circularreasoning,language– Adhominemfallacy,emotion– Fallacyofaccent,thought

• Self-referenceleadstoparadoxandhencelogicalinconsistency

Copingwithself-reference

• Inpracticalaffairsweroutinelydealwiththelogicalproblemofself-reference

• Weseektoeliminateconflictsofinterest• TheFifthAmendmentprohibitsself-incrimination

• Weletjuriesdecidewhomandwhattobelieve

• Whenwedosciencewetrytoconstructlogicallyconsistenttheories

Whyshouldwenotbedeterred?

• Inpracticalaffairswehavelearnedtocopewithself-reference

• Wecommonlyseeourselvesasparticipantsinamulti-playergame

• Welosenothingbyaddinganewdimensiontoscience

• Thesciencewepracticedbeforewecanstillpractice

TheCorrespondencePrinciple

• ProposedbyNielsBohrwhendevelopingthequantumtheory

• Anynewtheoryshouldreducetotheoldtheorytowhichitcorrespondsforthosecasesinwhichtheoldtheoryisknowntohold

• Anewdimensionisrequired• Byapplyingthecorrespondenceprincipletothephilosophyofscience,wechangenotjustonetheoryoronefieldbutallofscience

New philosophy of science

An Application of the Correspondence Principle

Old philosophy of science

Amount of attention paid to the observer

Theeffectonsciencepolicy

• Sciencepolicytodayismostlyanexerciseinbudgeting

• Analternativeapproachistostudythehistoryofscience

• Studyscienceasasocialactivity– history,philosophy,cognitivescience,sociologyofscience

• Whatpracticeshavebeenhelpful?Howhasthemostinnovativesciencebeenproduced?

Logic

• Includetheobserverinwhatisobserved• Inthesocialsciencestheoriescanchangethephenomenonobserved

• Knowledgecanbeorganizedasmethodsaswellastheories(instructionstoparticipants)

• Addthedimensionoftimetoresolveproblemsinvolvingself-reference

Strategies

• Studycognitionandincorporatewhatislearnedintoourunderstandingofknowledgeandepistemology(HeinzvonFoerster)

• Studyhighperformingresearchteams(Hollingsworth,Mueller)

• Createandusemethodsfordoingsecondorderscience

Methods

• Modelcyclesinpreferredtheories• Viewfirstordertheoriesasbeingpartofsocialcontrolprocesses

• Charttheinteractionbetweenideasandsociety(e.g.,shoelacemodel)

• Createmulti-disciplinarydescriptionsusingideas,groups,events,andvariables

• Docross-culturalstudies

Akeyquestion:Dohumanactivitieschangesystems?

• Humanbeingschangesocialsystemsbychanginglawsandtheories

• Astechnologyimproves,humanbeingsareevenchangingthenaturalenvironment– soil,fish,climate

• Wearelearningtothinkaboutourselvesasparticipantsinthesystemswestudy

• Buttodothatweneedtochangeourconceptionofscience

ContactInformation

Prof.StuartUmplebyDepartmentofManagementSchoolofBusinessGeorgeWashingtonUniversityWashington,DC20052USA

www.gwu.edu/~umplebyumpleby@gwu.edu

PresentedatCaféScientifiqueArlington,VASeptember10,2012