second long term clean energy auctions in mexico 2016€¦ · · 2016-11-21the second long term...

Energy Alert – Second Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico

October 4, 2016

Comparative: 1st vs 2nd Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico 20162 4

Executive Summary1 3

Details of final awarded projects3 6

Technology distribution and selected states4 7

Allocated amounts by technology5 8

Awarded nodes analysis6 9

Table of Contents

Second Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico 2016

EY Professionals7 10

► The Second Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico 2016 promise to reach the goal of the Mexican Energy

Reform.

► The CENACE published the final list of awarded projects for the Second Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico

on September 28, 2016.

► A high degree of participation was achieved; 57 bidders submitted economic offers, of which 23 were awarded

projects, of a total of 326.

► 4 billion USD + 2.6 billion USD of the 1st auction will be invested.

► 34 generation companies will be established in Mexico.

Executive Summary

Multi-energy tender

A complex bid evaluation process with

regional adjustment of bid prices

Choice of payment indexation on Mexican

inflation or on a combination of Mexican

inflation, US inflation and MXN/USD FX rate

Bidders offer packages of up to 3 different

products

Bidders were allowed to offer a combined

package price for the totality of its offered

products

Counterpart: CFE subsidiary (Basicservice supplier)

Clearing House: corporate entity thatshall administer all contracts awardedthrough auctions

Bidders: foreign and local privateinvestors alongside CFE and Pemex(State productive companies)

September 30th 2016: Notification of

selected Sale Offers to each Bidder

January 30th 2017: SPV

Incorporation

January 31st 2017: Contract

subscription

Key Aspects Participants in auction Next important dates

Source: CENACE, CRE and EY analysis


► FX MXP/USD = $18

Comparative: 1st vs 2nd Long Term AuctionScenario 1: Based on weighted formula of Auctions Manual

► The previous table shows the final numbers considering the weighted formula established under the“Long Term Auction Manual” (in spanish, “Manual de Subastas de Largo Plazo”).

► As per the above statement, a reduction of 31% in the average Price per offer of Clean Energy wasmade (Energy + CEL), as compared to the 1st LT Auction.

► 38% of threshold optimization, which corresponds to the average optimization of CFE Basic ServiceSuppliers Purchase Offer.

Source: CENACE and EY analysis


Capacity (USD/MW)Cumulative Energy

(USD/MWh)CEL (USD/CEL)

Demand –Counterpart

Purchase Offer

Amount 1,483.00 10,629,911.00 10,629,911.00

Max. Price $ 93,817.00 $ 41.70 $ 20.85

Avg. Price $ 73,489.98 $ 34.75 $ 17.55

Awarded in 2nd Long Term Auction

Amount 1,187.16 8,909,819.30 9,275,534.00

Max. Price $ 54,973.95 $ 26.47 $ 19.52

Avg. Price $ 29,439.06 $ 20.28 $ 13.08

% Awarded 80.05% 83.82% 87.26%

% Demand Max. $/ Awarded Avg. $

31.38% 48.63% 62.72%

1st Long Term Auction

Amount - 5,402,880.50 5,380,911.00

Max. Price $ - $ 43.72 $ 21.86

Avg. Price $ - $ 31.99 $ 16.44


Comparative: 1st vs 2nd Long Term AuctionScenario 2: Based on more conservative Capacity price

► The previous table shows the final numbers, using a weighted formula suggested by EY specialists.

► As per the above statement, a reduction of 32% in the average Price per offer of Clean Energy wasmade (Energy + CEL), as compared to the 1st LT Auction.

► 38% of threshold optimization, which corresponds to the average optimization of CFE Basic ServiceSuppliers Purchase Offer.



Capacity (USD/MW)Cumulative Energy

(USD/MWh)CEL (USD/CEL)

Demand –Counterpart

Purchase Offer

Amount 1,483.00 10,629,911.00 10,629,911.00

Max. Price $ 93,817.00 $ 41.70 $ 20.85

Avg. Price $ 73,489.98 $ 34.75 $ 17.55

Awarded in 2nd Long Term Auction

Amount 1,187.16 8,909,819.30 9,275,534.00

Max. Price $ 54,973.95 $ 25.79 $ 21.14

Avg. Price $ 25,823.96 $ 18.00 $ 15.15

% Awarded 80.05% 83.82% 87.26%

% Demand Max. $/ Awarded Avg. $

27.53% 43.16% 72.67%

1st Long Term Auction

Amount - 5,402,880.50 5,380,911.00

Max. Price $ - $ 43.72 $ 21.86

Avg. Price $ - $ 31.99 $ 16.44


Details of final awarded projects



# NameAwarded

bidsPricing Area Technology

$ Annual Offer(USD)

Capacity(MW-year)

Cum. Energy(MWh)

CEL

1 Parque Eólico Reynosa III, S.A.P.I de C.V. 2 Reynosa Wind $ 60,144,563.11 - 1,613,416.80 1,613,416.00

2 Parque Eólico El Mezquite, S.A.P.I de C.V. 3 Monterrey Wind $ 34,138,371.30 76.74 820,635.81 774,938.00

3 Eolica de Oaxaca S.A.P.I. de C.V. 1 Ixtepec Wind $ 31,811,645.85 - 818,264.52 818,264.00

4 Comisión Federal de Electricidad 2 Carapan and CananeaGeothermal and Combined Cycle $ 29,663,639.61 399.98 198,764.40 198,764.00

5 Alten Energías RenovablesMéxico Cuatro, S.A. de C.V. 6 Aguascalientes Solar Photovoltaic $ 29,004,025.56 74.59 722,043.79 812,417.00

6 Consorcio Fotowatio 2 Saltillo Solar Photovoltaic $ 22,379,235.39 - 779,161.60 779,161.00

7 AT Solar 3 Hermosillo Solar Photovoltaic $ 19,582,448.51 29.00 478,260.96 478,260.00

8 Quetzal Energía México S.A.P.I. de C.V. 2 Moctezuma Solar Photovoltaic $ 15,077,500.28 - 393,611.32 393,611.00

9 Enel Green Power México, S. de R.L. de C.V. 1 Reynosa Wind $ 13,589,573.44 - 399,129.86 399,129.00

10 Kamet Energía México, S.A.P.I de C.V. 2 Hermosillo Solar Photovoltaic $ 13,575,058.11 - 353,466.00 353,466.00

11 FRONTERA MÉXICO GENERACIÓN S DE RL DE CV 5 Reynosa Combined Cycle $ 12,266,052.67 474.93 - -

12 X-Elio Energy, S.L. 2 Juárez Solar Photovoltaic $ 10,984,139.17 30.00 363,137.04 363,136.00

13 Consorcio ENGIE Solar Trompezon 1 Aguascalientes Solar Photovoltaic $ 10,889,268.60 - 342,629.62 338,851.00

14 OPDE 4 Laguna Solar Photovoltaic $ 9,584,863.52 - 289,509.10 289,508.00

15 Bluemex Power 1 S.A. de C.V. 1 Obregón Solar Photovoltaic $ 9,456,626.73 - 249,982.32 249,982.00

16 Consorcio SMX 3 Aguascalientes Solar Photovoltaic $ 9,281,416.28 10.00 278,357.76 563,973.76

17 TRACTEBEL ENERGIA DE ALTAMIRA, S. DE R.L. DE C.V. 1 Güemez Wind $ 8,882,696.95 21.62 223,010.76 223,010.00

18 HQ Mexico Holdings, S. de R.L. de C.V. 3 Laguna Solar Photovoltaic $ 8,088,001.11 18.30 252,444.87 252,444.00

19 Consorcio Guanajuato 1 Querétaro Solar Photovoltaic $ 5,341,362.02 12.00 146,957.76 146,957.00

20 ENERGIA SIERRA JUAREZ HOLIDNG S DE RL DE CV 2 Mexicali Solar Photovoltaic $ 3,807,377.29 - 114,115.90 117,064.00

21 GREEN HUB S DE RL DECV 1 Querétaro Solar Photovoltaic $ 2,617,057.50 10.00 72,919.11 72,919.00

22 GENERADORA FENIX SAPI DE CV 6 Central Hidropower $ 2,448,098.80 - - 314,631.00

23 Energía Renovable de la Península, S.A.P.I. de C.V. 2 Mérida Wind $ 987,392.00 30.00 - -

Technology distribution for awarded projects and selected States

Wind

Hydropower

53%41%

2% 4%

54%44%

2%

15%

11%

2%72%



Solar

CEL

Cumulative Energy

Capacity

Selected States in 2nd Auction

Selected Sates (1st + 2nd Auction)

Geothermal

Combined Cycle

► 1 Sonora

► 2 Baja California

► 3 Baja California Sur

► 4 Tamaulipas

► 5 Oaxaca

► 6 Chihuahua

► 7 Michoacán

► 8 Coahuila de Zaragoza

► 9 Aguascalientes

► 10 Guanajuato

► 11 Nuevo León

► 12 Yucatán

► 13 San Luis Potosí

► 14 Morelos

► 15 Jalisco

1

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

9

10

11

1213

14

15

2

Allocated amounts by technology

26%

CEL Cumulative Energy Capacity

Awarded

Initial

Purchase

Offer

Not Awarded AwardedNot Awarded AwardedNot Awarded

WindGeothermalCombined Cycle

(CCGT)Hydropower Solar

26%

16%

45%

36%

2%

100%

26%

20%

100%

12%

9%

2%

57%

13%

100%

46%

36%

2%

3%

► CEL 9.27M CELs

► Cumulative Energy 8.90 TWh

► Capacity 1,187.16 MW

Source: CENACE


Initial

Purchase

Offer

Initial

Purchase

Offer

Awarded nodes analysis

Awarded Energy

(GWh)

Source: CENACE, PRODESEN and EY analysis


0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Aguascalientes

Carapan

Güemez

Hermosillo

Ixtepec

Juárez

Laguna

Mexicali

Moctezuma

Monterrey

Obregón

Querétaro

Reynosa

Saltillo

Puebla

LMP range (min - max)USD/MWh

4b.

338

1,558

4,025

439

499

1,595

787

231

932

387

1,636

1,633

446

397

2,931

Clean Energy Average Price

► FX MXP/USD = $18 for Clean Energy Average Price

1. X-Elio Energy, S.L.

2. Consorcio Fotowatio

3a. Enel Green Power México, S. de

R.L. de C.V.

3b. Parque Eólico Reynosa III, S.A.P.I

de C.V.

4a. GREEN HUB S DE RL DE CV

4b. Consorcio Guanajuato

5. Bluemex Power 1 S.A. de C.V.

6. Parque Eólico El Mezquite, S.A.P.I

de C.V.

7. Quetzal Energía México S.A.P.I. de

C.V.

8. ENERGIA SIERRA JUAREZ

HOLIDNG S DE RL DE CV

9a. HQ Mexico Holdings, S. de R.L. de

C.V.

9b. OPDE

11. X-Elio Energy, S.L.

12. Eolica de Oaxaca S.A.P.I. de C.V.

13a. Kamet Energía México, S.A.P.I de

C.V.

13b. AT Solar

14. TRACTEBEL ENERGIA DE

ALTAMIRA, S. DE R.L. DE C.V.

15. Comisión Federal de Electricidad

15a. Consorcio SMX

15b. Consorcio ENGIE Sola Trompezon

15c. OPDE

15d. Alten Energías

Renovables México Cuatro, S.A.

de C.V.

1.

2.

3a. 3b.

4a.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9a.

11.

12.

13a.

14.

15.

15a. 15b.

9b.

13b.

15c. 15d.

José Salas

Partner - Advisory

EY Mexico

Tel: +52 (55) 1101 7329

Email: [email protected]

Rafael Aguirre

Partner - Transaction Advisory Services

EY Mexico

Tel: +52 (55) 5283 8650


Alfredo Álvarez

Partner - Energy Segment Leader

EY Mexico

Tel: +52 (55) 5283 1179


Rodrigo Fernández

Partner - Transaction Tax

EY Mexico

Tel: +52 (55) 5283 8666

E-mail: [email protected]


EY Proffesionals

Paul Roberti

Executive Director - Power & Utilities

EY Mexico

Tel: +52 (55) 5283 8666


Loic LeGall

Executive Director - Power & Utilities

EY Mexico

Tel: +52 (55) 4094 6488


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second long term clean energy auctions in mexico 2016€¦ · · 2016-11-21the second long term...

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