SEB-studies in Germany Thomas Schuhmacher, DWD Content Current stage of proceeding of DWD SEB-study on the value of meteorological information for the energy revolution valuation of forest fire warning index in Germany SEB Workshop 06/2015 2 DWD SEB-study Basic information Topic:the value of meteorological products and services for the energy revolution Special tasks:research on the value chain comparison of products (DWD and private providers) Structure:Topic 1: formulation of a conecpt note Topic 2: realization of the study Length: month 3 SEB Workshop 06/2015 DWD SEB-study Current stage of proceeding Contract for realisation of the study is awarded to a German company named adelphi research GmbH (www.adelphi.de) adelphi is a think tank for policy analysis and strategy consulting adelphi offers solutions and services regarding global environment and development challenges for policy, business, and civil society communities. kick-off meeting: July 13 4 SEB Workshop 06/2015 Basic information on forest fires in Germany average number of forest fires per year:1160 average area burned per year:740 ha reasons for forest fires22 % fire raising 24 % negligence 9 % other 4 % natural 41 % unknown Value of forest fire danger index 5 SEB Workshop 06/2015 Basic information on forest fire danger index from March to October forest fire danger forecasts (4 days) for Germany index from 1 (=very little danger) to 5 (=very high danger) Value of forest fire danger index 6 SEB Workshop 06/2015 Socioeconomic benefits of forest fire danger index Value of forest fire danger index 7 SEB Workshop 06/2015 benefits customers actions damage caused by forest fires in Germany = value of the loss of wood + reforestation costs (9.000 /ha) + extinguishing costs (~ /ha) (+ loss of (bio-)diversity) (+ risk of death) Value of forest fire danger index 8 SEB Workshop 06/2015 Damage caused by forest fires in Germany ( ) Value of forest fire danger index 9 SEB Workshop 06/2015 Application: Value of warning system in Bavaria Value of forest fire danger index 10 SEB Workshop 06/2015 Method 1: natural experiment estimation of damage with and without forest fire warning system (=benefit) damage with warning system (2011): estimation that damage without warning system depends on additional forest burned without control flights (2011): Value of forest fire danger index 11 SEB Workshop 06/2015 Method 1: natural experiment costs (2011): Bavarian forest authorities (+ control flights): German Meteorological Office: ~ total costs: ~ Value of forest fire danger index 12 SEB Workshop 06/2015 Method 2: cost-loss approach costs of control flights in Bavaria = 290 /flight control flights with an forest fire danger index 4 or 5 additional damage without control flights: 0,4 hectares (~ ) benefits of control flights in 2011 for Bavaria ~ Value of forest fire danger index 13 SEB Workshop 06/2015 Control flights/forest fires in 2011:Expenses (): Contact 14 SEB Workshop 06/2015 Diplom-Volkswirt Thomas Schuhmacher Deutscher Wetterdienst Regionale Messnetzgruppe Mnchen Helene-Weber-Allee Mnchen mail: fon: +49 (0) 69 / fax: +49 (0) 69 /