seasons gone by: an examination of perceptions of past weather and views on global warming

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CLOSUP Working Paper Series Number 37 June 2015 Seasons Gone By: An Examination of Individual Perceptions of Past Weather and Their Views on Global Warming Christopher Borick, Muhlenberg College Erick Lachapelle, University of Montreal Barry G. Rabe, University of Michigan This paper is available online at http://closup.umich.edu Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the Center for Local, State, and Urban Policy or any sponsoring agency Center for Local, State, and Urban Policy Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy University of Michigan

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In this study we examine the ability of individuals to accurately assess recent weather conditions in relation to historical norms, and validate the veracity of such assessments, with reference to instrumental temperature data. We then examine the relationship between individual assessments of local weather and perceptions of evidence of global warming. We find that subjective perceptions of seasonal temperatures are influenced not only by external climatic conditions but also, and more importantly, by attitudes toward the existence of global warming. The empirical bases of this study draws from surveys conducted in the United States and Canada during the fall of 2014 as part of the National Surveys on Energy and the Environment (NSEE).

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Page 1: Seasons Gone By: An Examination of Perceptions of Past Weather and Views on Global Warming

CLOSUP Working Paper Series Number 37

June 2015

Seasons Gone By: An Examination of Individual Perceptions of Past Weather and Their Views on

Global Warming

Christopher Borick, Muhlenberg College

Erick Lachapelle, University of Montreal

Barry G. Rabe, University of Michigan

This paper is available online at http://closup.umich.edu

Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the Center for Local, State, and Urban Policy or any sponsoring agency

Center for Local, State, and Urban Policy Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy

University of Michigan

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