seasonality - architect theme by jason...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Seasonality
Matthieu [email protected]
January 8, 2009
Version 1.1
This document is released under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 2.5 India
license.
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 1 / 64
![Page 2: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Lectures list
1 Stationarity
2 ARMA models for stationary variables
3 Seasonality
4 Non-stationarity
5 Non-linearities
6 Multivariate models
7 Structural VAR models
8 Cointegration the Engle and Granger approach
9 Cointegration 2: The Johansen Methodology
10 Multivariate Nonlinearities in VAR models
11 Multivariate Nonlinearities in VECM models
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 2 / 64
![Page 3: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Seasonality
1 Introduction
2 Deterministic seasonality
3 Stochastic SeasonalityStationary modelsNon-stationary modelsBox-Jenkins methodology
4 Frequency analysis
5 X-12-ARIMAX-12-ARIMA
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 3 / 64
![Page 4: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Outline
1 Introduction
2 Deterministic seasonality
3 Stochastic SeasonalityStationary modelsNon-stationary modelsBox-Jenkins methodology
4 Frequency analysis
5 X-12-ARIMAX-12-ARIMA
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 4 / 64
![Page 5: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Decomposition
We have the traditional idea
Yt = St + Ct + Tt + εt
St : Seasonal component
Ct : Cyclical component
Tt : Trend component
εt : Stochastic/unexplained component
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 5 / 64
![Page 6: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Types of seasonality
Remember the last discussion:
Stationarity: ARMA(p,q)
Non-stationarity:I Trend stationarity (deterministic trend)I Difference stationarity (stochastic trend) ARIMA(p,d,q)
Similarly we will have:
Stationarity: SARMA(p, q)(P,Q)s
Non-stationarity:I Stochastic seasonality: SARIMA (p, d , q)(P,D,Q)s
I Deterministic seasonality: dummy variables
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 6 / 64
![Page 7: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Types of seasonality
Remember the last discussion:
Stationarity: ARMA(p,q)
Non-stationarity:I Trend stationarity (deterministic trend)I Difference stationarity (stochastic trend) ARIMA(p,d,q)
Similarly we will have:
Stationarity: SARMA(p, q)(P,Q)s
Non-stationarity:I Stochastic seasonality: SARIMA (p, d , q)(P,D,Q)s
I Deterministic seasonality: dummy variables
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 6 / 64
![Page 8: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Outline
1 Introduction
2 Deterministic seasonality
3 Stochastic SeasonalityStationary modelsNon-stationary modelsBox-Jenkins methodology
4 Frequency analysis
5 X-12-ARIMAX-12-ARIMA
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 7 / 64
![Page 9: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Dummy variable
Definition (Dummy Variable)
D =
{1 if A
0 if A
A can be:
Male (and then A = female)
Special event
...
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 8 / 64
![Page 10: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Deterministic seasonality
Adds dummy variables:
yt = α0 +s−1∑i=1
αiDi + βt + εt
Adds sines and cosines:
yt = α0 +
[T/2]∑i=1
(αi cos(λi t) + γi sin(λi t)) + εt
With λi = 2πiT i = 1, . . . , [T/2]
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 9 / 64
![Page 11: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Outline
1 Introduction
2 Deterministic seasonality
3 Stochastic SeasonalityStationary modelsNon-stationary modelsBox-Jenkins methodology
4 Frequency analysis
5 X-12-ARIMAX-12-ARIMA
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 10 / 64
![Page 12: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Outline
1 Introduction
2 Deterministic seasonality
3 Stochastic SeasonalityStationary modelsNon-stationary modelsBox-Jenkins methodology
4 Frequency analysis
5 X-12-ARIMAX-12-ARIMA
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 11 / 64
![Page 13: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Seasonal AR modelsSee:
xt = a4xt−4 + εt
Autocorrelation: spikes at lags 1, 1s, 2s,
γ(j) =
{aj/44 if j/4 ∈ N
0 if j/4 /∈ N
Define the pure seasonal AR model:
Yt = Φ1Yt−s + Φ2Yt−2s + . . .+ ΦPYt−Ps + εt
With polynomial:
Φs(x) = (1− Φ1Ls − Φ2L2s − . . .− ΦPLPs)
Proposition
The autocorrelation function is nonzero only at lags s, 2s, 3s
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 12 / 64
![Page 14: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Lag
AC
FPure seasonal model, with a4=0.5 and others=0
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 13 / 64
![Page 15: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Extending the ARMA model
Multiplicative way: ARMA(p, q)(P,Q)s
Φ(Ls)φ(L)yt = Θ(Ls)θ(L)εt
Multiplicative way: ARIMA(p, d , q)(P,D,Q)s
Φ(Ls)φ(L)∆d∆Ds yt = Θ(Ls)θ(L)εt
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 14 / 64
![Page 16: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Outline
1 Introduction
2 Deterministic seasonality
3 Stochastic SeasonalityStationary modelsNon-stationary modelsBox-Jenkins methodology
4 Frequency analysis
5 X-12-ARIMAX-12-ARIMA
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 15 / 64
![Page 17: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Seasonal unit rootsTake the simple seasonal AR(4) model:
xt = a4xt−4 + εt
With a4 = 1Its polynomial is (1− L4) and can be decomposed as:
(1− L)(1 + L)(1 + L2) = (1− L)(1 + L)(1− iL)(1 + iL)
It has the four roots:
1
-1
i
-i
So it is not stationary:
Long/infinite memory
variance increasing with the time
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 16 / 64
![Page 18: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
seasonal AR process with φ4 = 1
Time
ar4I
0 20 40 60 80 100
−10
−5
05
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 17 / 64
![Page 19: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Lag
AC
FSeries ar4I
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 18 / 64
![Page 20: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Seasonal differencing
remember:
Definition (Difference operator)
∆d = (1− L)d
Now:
Definition (Seasonal difference operator)
∆Ds = (1− Ls)D
Definition (Seasonal integration)
A series of ”frequency” s is said to be seasonaly integrated of order D if∆D
s yt is stationary.
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 19 / 64
![Page 21: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Outline
1 Introduction
2 Deterministic seasonality
3 Stochastic SeasonalityStationary modelsNon-stationary modelsBox-Jenkins methodology
4 Frequency analysis
5 X-12-ARIMAX-12-ARIMA
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 20 / 64
![Page 22: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Box-Jenkins airline series (in log)
Time
log(
AirP
asse
nger
s)
1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 21 / 64
![Page 23: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Box-Jenkins airline model
Seasons
2 4 6 8 10 12
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
1949
1954
1960
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 22 / 64
![Page 24: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
airline series: ∆
Time
dAirP
asse
nger
s
1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960
−0.
20.
00.
2
Seasons
2 4 6 8 10 12
−0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2194919541960
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 23 / 64
![Page 25: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
airline series: ∆
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
−0.
20.
00.
20.
40.
60.
81.
0
Lag
AC
F
Series dAirPassengers
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 24 / 64
![Page 26: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
airline series: ∆12
Time
d12A
irPas
seng
ers
1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960
0.0
0.2
Seasons
2 4 6 8 10 12
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.2019501955
1960
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 25 / 64
![Page 27: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
airline series: ∆12
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
−0.
20.
00.
20.
40.
60.
81.
0
Lag
AC
F
Series d12AirPassengers
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 26 / 64
![Page 28: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
airline series: ∆∆12
Time
d112
AirP
asse
nger
s
1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960
−0.
150.
000.
15
Seasons
2 4 6 8 10 12
−0.10
−0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10195019551960
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 27 / 64
![Page 29: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
airline series: ∆∆12
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
−0.
4−
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Lag
AC
F
Series d112AirPassengers
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 28 / 64
![Page 30: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Box-Jenkins airline model
Box Jenkins use the sARIMA(0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)12 model:
∆∆12yt = (1− θL)(1−ΘL12)εt
Decomposing it gives:
yt − yt−1 − yt−12 − yt−13 = εt − θεt−1 −Θεt−12 − θΘεt−13
Note that after both differencing the series is:
Stationary
have autocorrelation only at lags 1,11,12 and 13
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 29 / 64
![Page 31: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Airline model
> seas <- (list(order = c(0, 1, 1), period = 12))
> BJ <- arima(log(AirPassengers), order = c(0, 1, 1), seasonal = seas)
> resBJ <- residuals(BJ)
> Box.test(resBJ, lag = 1, type = "Ljung")
Box-Ljung test
data: resBJX-squared = 0.0307, df = 1, p-value = 0.861
> Box.test(resBJ, lag = 12, type = "Ljung")
Box-Ljung test
data: resBJX-squared = 9.2333, df = 12, p-value = 0.6829
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 30 / 64
![Page 32: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Outline
1 Introduction
2 Deterministic seasonality
3 Stochastic SeasonalityStationary modelsNon-stationary modelsBox-Jenkins methodology
4 Frequency analysis
5 X-12-ARIMAX-12-ARIMA
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 31 / 64
![Page 33: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Frequency analysis
We take an empirical approach here!
Definition (Sample periodogram)
sY (ω) = 12π
∑T−1i=0 γj [cos(ωj)− i sin(ωj)]
Proposition (Equivalence 1)
sY (ω) = 12π
(γ0 + 2
∑T−1i=1 γj cos(ωj)
)What does it show?
Which ω (the frequencies) do we take?
Names
It seems that the periodogram is also called spectrum or spectral density.
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 32 / 64
![Page 34: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Frequencies of the sample periodogram
Take the frequencies as:
ωj =2πj
Tj = i , . . . , [T/2]
Definition (period)
The period coresponding to the frequency omega is given by: 2πω
The period can be seen as the numbers of times units (months, quarters)needed to accomplish a cycle.Low frequencies have a big period and are seen as rather ”trend” elements.
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 33 / 64
![Page 35: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Decomposition of the variance
Proposition
γ0 =∫ π−π sY (ω)dω = 2
∫ π0 sY (ω)dω
So∫ ωj
−ωjsY (ω)dω represents the portion of the variance of Y that could be
attributed to periodic random components with frequency less than orequal to ωj .
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 34 / 64
![Page 36: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Hamilton example: Industrial production index
Time
MP
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
4060
8010
012
014
0
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 35 / 64
![Page 37: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
0 50 100 150 200 250
020
4060
Spectrum on raw data
Value of jMatthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 36 / 64
![Page 38: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
0 50 100 150 200 250
02
46
8
Spectrum of diff (log(y)) Peaks are at 18 (28.5), 44 (11.7), and months 6,4,3,2.5
Value of jMatthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 37 / 64
![Page 39: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
0 50 100 150 200 250
010
2030
40
Spectrum of diff12 (log(y)) Only one peak!
Value of jMatthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 38 / 64
![Page 40: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Seasonal unit roots
The polynomial (1− L4) can be decomposed as:
(1− L)(1 + L)(1 + L2) = (1− L)(1 + L)(1− iL)(1 + iL)
It has the four roots 1,-1,i,-i and we can find their corresponding frequency!
Proposition
The frequency ω corresponding to a root is the argument of the root.
Definition
The argument of a complex number is the angle in the polarrepresentation and is given by: ω = cos−1(a/R) = sin−1(b/R), a is thereal part, b the imaginary and R the modulus.
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 39 / 64
![Page 41: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Seasonal unit root
Proposition
The number of cycles per year is given by Sω2π
root f period Annual occurence
1 0 no no-1 π 2 quarters 2i,-i π/2,−π/2 4 quarters 1
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 40 / 64
![Page 42: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
5e−
015e
+01
frequency
spec
trum
φφ1 == 1
bandwidth = 0.0058
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
110
1000
frequency
spec
trum
φφ1 == −1
bandwidth = 0.0058
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
5e−
015e
+01
frequency
spec
trum
φφ2 == −1
bandwidth = 0.0058
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
5e−
015e
+01
frequency
spec
trum
φφ4 == 1
bandwidth = 0.0058Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 41 / 64
![Page 43: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
The HEGY test
The HEGY (1990) test decompose the polynomial complexically and runsan auxilliary regression:
y4t = π1y1t−1 + π2y2t−1 + π3y3t−2 + π4y3t−1 + εt
As example y1t is (1 + L + L2 + L3)xt .Thus one has the following hypotheses:
Nonseasonal root (1): π1 = 0
Seasonal bi-annual root (-1): π2 = 0
Seasonal annual root (i,-i): π3 = 0 ∩ π4 = 0
The tabulated distribution depends on whether there isintercept/trend/seasonal dummy.
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 42 / 64
![Page 44: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
HEGY for monthly seriesThe HEGY test has been extended for monthly series (12 roots!) byFranses (1990) and Beaulieu and Miron (1993)
The roots are the same as HEGY (1,-1, i,-1) plus ±1/2(1±√
3i),±1/2(
√3± i)
root freq cycles per year
1 π 6i π/2 3i −π/2 9
−1/2(1 +√
3i) −2π/3 8
−1/2(1−√
3i) 2π/3 4
1/2(1 +√
3i) π/3 2
1/2(1−√
3i) −π/3 10
−1/2(√
3 + i) −5π/6 7
−1/2(√
3− i) 5π/6 5
1/2(√
3 + i) π/6 1
1/2(√
3− i) −π/6 11
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 43 / 64
![Page 45: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
0.2
0.5
2.0
5.0
20.0
100.
050
0.0
frequency
spec
trum
Series: xSmoothed Periodogram
bandwidth = 0.00867Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 44 / 64
![Page 46: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
HEGY tests with R
The HEGY test and its extension to monthly data ara available in R in:
> library(uroot)
> data(AirPassengers)
> lairp <- log(AirPassengers)
> test <- HEGY.test(wts = lairp, itsd = c(1, 1, c(1:11)), regvar = 0,
+ selectlags = list(mode = "bic", Pmax = 12))
> test@stats
Stat. p-valuetpi_1 -2.577797 0.1000000tpi_2 -4.396433 0.0100000Fpi_3:4 18.519107 0.1000000Fpi_5:6 4.823309 0.0100000Fpi_7:8 8.656624 0.1000000Fpi_9:10 7.119685 0.0494419Fpi_11:12 2.854972 0.0100000Fpi_2:12 18.373828 NAFpi_1:12 19.336146 NA
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 45 / 64
![Page 47: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
monthly HEGY test
The mechanical application of the seasonal difference filter islikely to produce serious misspecification in many instances. Theevidence presented here indicates that unit roots are often absentat some or all of the seasonal frequencies, so empiricalresearchers should check for their presence (using proceduressuch as the one discussed above) rather than imposing them atall seasonal frequencies a priori.
Beaulieu, Miron (1993)
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 46 / 64
![Page 48: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Stationarity as a null
Canova and Hansen take opposite approach: H0 is stationarity, withdeterministic seasonality.From:
yt = αyt−1 +S−1∑i=1
Ditβi + εt
The idea is (provided stationarity, i.e. |α| < 1 ) to test for instablity of theβi parameters (see lecture 5) as the KPSS test does (lecture 4):
yt = αyt−1 +S−1∑i=1
Ditβit + εt
βit = βit−1 + ut
and test if Var(ut) = 0The test can also be applied to only a subset of dummies.
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 47 / 64
![Page 49: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
> CH.test(wts = AirPassengers, frec = c(1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1), f0 = 1,
+ DetTr = FALSE)
------ - ------ ----Canova & Hansen test------ - ------ ----
Null hypothesis: Stationarity.Alternative hypothesis: Unit root.Frequency of the tested cycles: pi/6 , pi/3 , pi/2 , 2pi/3 , 5pi/6 , pi ,
L-statistic: 1.836Lag truncation parameter: 13
Critical values:
0.10 0.05 0.025 0.012.49 2.75 2.99 3.27
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 48 / 64
![Page 50: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Outline
1 Introduction
2 Deterministic seasonality
3 Stochastic SeasonalityStationary modelsNon-stationary modelsBox-Jenkins methodology
4 Frequency analysis
5 X-12-ARIMAX-12-ARIMA
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 49 / 64
![Page 51: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Outline
1 Introduction
2 Deterministic seasonality
3 Stochastic SeasonalityStationary modelsNon-stationary modelsBox-Jenkins methodology
4 Frequency analysis
5 X-12-ARIMAX-12-ARIMA
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 50 / 64
![Page 52: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
X-12-ARIMA
Warning
This section is an ”empirical” presentation of X-12-ARIMA from scratch,just obtained from reading the manual. Careful readers should hencerather read directly the manual.
Warning 2
Careful reader will observe that X-12-ARIMA will observe that the manualpresent almost only implementation on not the theoretical underpinnings.Those seem to be based on ”old” work and rely on a finally simplesymmetric Moving Average (the smoothing technique, not the regressionmodel) and an SARIMA (from TRAMO-SEATS) model to extend thebegin and end of the sample for the smoothing.
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 51 / 64
![Page 53: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Type of seasonality
Additive:Xt = Ct + St + TDt + Ht + It
Multiplicative:Xt = Ct × St × TDt × Ht × It
Where:
C is the trend-cycle component
S is the seasonal component
TD is trading-day effect
H is the holiday effect
I is the irregular component
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 52 / 64
![Page 54: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
The specs
series{}arima{}: ARIMA given by user
automdl{}: automatic choice of the ARIMA
check{}: print tests on the regARIMA
estimate {} print tests on the regARIMA
x11{}: the seasonal adjustment procedure
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 53 / 64
![Page 55: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
X-12-ARIMAThe regARIMA option
Φ(Ls)φ(L)∆d∆Ds (yt −
∑xit) = Θ(Ls)θ(L)εt
xi can be:
Constant/trend pattern:I Constant if D = d = 0 (then equals mean of the series)I Sort of trend if D, d 6= 0
Fixed seasonal pattern:I Seasonal dummiesI Sin-cos functions
Level shift (structural break)
Temporary change
External variable
Deterministic vs stochastic seasonality
If arg season is given, you can’t use seasonal differencing (i.e. D=0)
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 54 / 64
![Page 56: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
X-12-ARIMA: ARIMA fitting
Estimation and identification can be carried out by followingwell-established procedures that rely on examination of ACF andPACF of yt and its differences.
If regARIMA provided: ACF and PACF are different, so other methodology.
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 55 / 64
![Page 57: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
X-12-ARIMA: ARIMA estimation
Estimator provided: exact MLE.
Inference: it seems that no inference is made on ARIMA and regARIMAfor the variables added by the user, but can be extracted (see page 42),you must use the spec check{}
Otherwise, one can use usual information criteria to select the model AIC,AAIC, BIC, Hannan-Quin
p. 50: aictest argument of the regression and x11regression specs is usedto automatically decide for or against the inclusions of certain regressors(see Sections 7.13 and 7.18 of the X-12-ARIMA Reference Manual).
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 56 / 64
![Page 58: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
Spec check{}
The check spec is used to produce various diagnostic statistics using theresiduals from the fitted model. To check for autocorrelation,X-12-ARIMA can produce:
ACFs and PACFs of the residuals (with standard errors)
Ljung and Box (1978) summary Q-statistics
basic descriptive statistics of the residuals
histogram of the standardized residuals
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 57 / 64
![Page 59: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
The spec autmomdl{}
automdlprint = (none bestfivemdl autochoice) savelog = automodelModel selection procedure is adapted from TRAMO
1 default model estimation: a default model is estimated, initialoutlier identification and regressor tests are performed, and residualdiagnostics are generated;
2 identification of differencing orders: empirical unit root tests areperformed to determine the orders
3 identification of ARMA model orders: an iterative procedure isapplied
4 comparison of identified model with default model: the identifiedmodel is compared to the default model
5 final model checks: where the final model is checked for adequacy
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 58 / 64
![Page 60: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
automdl: step 1
Test from the airline model:
trading day, Easter (AIC?)
user-defined regressors (AIC?)
const in regARIMA (t-test)
Ljung-Box test of the residuals
Model selected should perform better than this one.Manual 3, page 70
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 59 / 64
![Page 61: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
automdl: step 2 and 3
Step 2: identification of d,D Use empirical unit root tests: estimate(200)(100)s and see if the roots of the AR polynomial are outside the unitcircle.Step 3: identification of p,q,P,Q Multi-step BIC procedureIf model prefered is different than airline model, then make all tests (easterday, user-defined var, LB stat)
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 60 / 64
![Page 62: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
automdl: step 4
Compares with the airline model:
Number of outliers is less
Ljung-Box statistic is better
Some empirical rules
The program then tests to see if the preferred model isacceptable. The confidence coefficient of the Ljung- Box Qstatistic is used as the criterion.
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 61 / 64
![Page 63: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
automdl: step 5 final check
Checks:
If sum of AR is outside unit root circle
Is unit root in non-seasonal MA polynomial (still stationary but notinvertible)
If constant in model is significant (when not previously given)
If ARMA coefficients are significants (individually)
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 62 / 64
![Page 64: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
R package forecast
Function auto.arima
Canova and Hansen (1995) test for D
Test as stationarity as null hypothesis (KPSS) for d
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 63 / 64
![Page 65: Seasonality - Architect Theme by Jason Longmatthieustigler.github.io/Lectures/Lect3Season.pdfSeasonality Matthieu Stigler Matthieu.Stigler@gmail.com January 8, 2009 Version 1.1 This](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030904/5b47cccc7f8b9a501f8d0bbd/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
R implementation
To run this Rnw file you will need:
Package uroot
Data file of Hamilton: Ham.txt (same folder as .Rnw file)
(Optional) File Sweave.sty which change output style: result is inblue, R commands are smaller. Also in same folder as .Rnw file.
Matthieu Stigler [email protected] () Seasonality January 8, 2009 64 / 64