seasonal outlook for winter 2013/14 for bulgaria

Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Winter 2013/14 for

BulgariaBulgaria

Ilian GospodinovIlian Gospodinov

National Institute of Meteorology National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrologyand Hydrology

Bulgarian Academy of SciencesBulgarian Academy of Sciences

SEECOF-10, 20 November 2013, SEECOF-10, 20 November 2013, BelgradeBelgrade


BulgariaBulgaria

VerificationVerification Atlantic SST/NAOAtlantic SST/NAO Overview of modelsOverview of models Seasonal outlook for winter 2013/14 Seasonal outlook for winter 2013/14

for Bulgaria and the SEECOF regionfor Bulgaria and the SEECOF region


BulgariaBulgaria+2 warm

+1 warm or normal

0 normal

-1 cold or normal

-2 cold

Baseline period 1980-2009Baseline period 1980-2009

+2 wet

+1 wet or normal

0 normal

-1 dry or normal

-2 dry

all categories

no forecast


BulgariaBulgaria SkillSkill

Temperature

Forecast

Category

Score

Month-1 Month-2 Month-3 Month-1 Month-2 Month-3

June 0 1 0 0.44 4 3 4

July 0 1 0 0.22 4 3 4

August 1 -1 1 1.84 3 0 3

Summer 1 1 0 1.22 4 4 2

Precipitation

Forecast

Category

Score


June 0 -1 0 1.28 2 0 2

July 1 0 1 0.25 3 4 3

August 0 1 0 -1.38 2 0 2

Summer 0 0 0 0.30 4 4 4


BulgariaBulgaria SkillSkill

Temperature

Forecast

Index

Score


December 0 0 0 -1.29 2 2 2

January 1 1 0 0.73 4 4 3

February 0 1 1 1.47 2 4 4

Winter 1 1 1 0.69 4 4 4

Precipitation

Forecast

Index

Score


December 1 1 0 1.63 3 3 0

January -1 -1 0 0.59 0 0 3

February 1 -1 0 1.63 3 0 0

Winter 0 0 0 1.83 0 0 0

Winter Forecast NAOWinter Forecast NAO How Bulgarian winters relate to NAOHow Bulgarian winters relate to NAO..

CD CW WD WW

NAO+ 25 0 50 25

NAO- 25 50 0 25

CD CW WD WW

NAO+ 25 17 33 25

NAO- 25 33 17 25

Winter Forecast ENSO/NAOWinter Forecast ENSO/NAO How Bulgarian winters relate to ENSO How Bulgarian winters relate to ENSO

La Nina CD CW WD WW

NAO+ 32 18 32 18

NAO- 32 32 18 18

El Nino CD CW WD WW

NAO+ 18 18 32 32

NAO- 18 32 18 32

Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14Winter 2013/14 North Atlantic SSTNorth Atlantic SST

Winter 2013/14 (NAO & Winter 2013/14 (NAO & ENSO)ENSO)

NAO forecast – negative or unpredictable. NAO forecast – negative or unpredictable.

ElNino/LaNina – indifferent phase.ElNino/LaNina – indifferent phase.

Winter 2013/14 (NAO & Winter 2013/14 (NAO & ENSO)ENSO)

ENSO 0CD CW WD WW

NAO+ 25 17 33 25

NAO- 25 33 17 25

Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14Winter 2013/14

Synthesis seasonal outlook for Dec2013-Synthesis seasonal outlook for Dec2013-Feb2014 for BulgariaFeb2014 for Bulgaria

Temperature EUROSIP ECMWFMetOffic

e NCEP IRI TCC BCC Syntesis

2014 DJF * *

Precipitation EUROSIP ECMWFMetOffic

e NCEP IRI TCC BCC Syntesis

2014 DJF *

Winter 2013/14 by MonthsWinter 2013/14 by Months

Synthesis of Synthesis of monthly monthly predictions for predictions for the winter the winter months in months in BulgariaBulgaria

Temperature NCEP TCC Ibimet BCCSynthesi

s

December

January

February

Precipitation NCEP TCC Ibimet BCC Синтез

December

January

February

Winter 2013/14 SynthesisWinter 2013/14 Synthesis

Temperature Month Winter

December

January

February

Precipitation Month Winter

December

January

February


Southeast Europe and the Southeast Europe and the RegionRegion

NW Balk NE Balk Black SeaBlack Sea CaucasusCaucasus

SW Balk SE Balk W Cauc E Cauc

Greece

Aegean Aegean SeaSea

NW Turk NE Turk

SW Turk SE Turk

MediterranMediterraneanean SeaSea

Israel



Temperature NWB NEB SWB SEB Greece NWT NET SWT SET WC EC Israel

BCC -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 2

TCC -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0

ECMWF 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

MetOffice -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1

NCEP 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0

IRI 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 2

Synthesis -0.2-

0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.7

EUROSIP



Precipitaton NWB NEB SWB SEB Greece NWT NET SWT SET WC EC Israel

BCC -1 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1

TCC 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 -1 1 -1 0 1

ECMWF -1 -1 -1 0 1 1 -1 1 -1 0 0 1

MetOffice -1 -1 1 1 1 -1 1 -1 -2

NCEP 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 -2 0 -1 -2 0 -2

Synthesis -0.4 -0.6 0.2 0.2 0.25 0.4 -1 0.4 -0.6 -1 0.25 -0.6

EUROSIP



TemperatureTemperature-0.2 -0.2 Black SeaBlack Sea CaucasusCaucasus

0.2 -0.2 0.2 0

0.2Aegean Aegean

SeaSea -0.2 -0.2

-0.2 0

MediterraMediterraneannean SeaSea IsraelIsrael

0.7



PrecipitationPrecipitation-0.4 -0.6 Black SeaBlack Sea CaucasusCaucasus

0.2 0.2 -0.75 0.25

0.25Aegean Aegean

SeaSea 0.4 -1

0.4 -0.6

MediterraMediterraneannean SeaSea IsraelIsrael

-0.6

Seasonal Forecasting at Seasonal Forecasting at the Bulgarian Weather the Bulgarian Weather

ServiceService

Ilian GospodinovIlian [email protected]@meteo.bg

National Institute of Meteorology National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrologyand Hydrology

Bulgarian Academy of SciencesBulgarian Academy of Sciences

seasonal outlook for winter 2013/14 for bulgaria

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