seasonal modeling (noaa) jian-wen bao sara michelson jim wilczak curtis fleming emily piencziak
TRANSCRIPT
Seasonal Modeling (NOAA)
Jian-Wen BaoSara Michelson
Jim WilczakCurtis FlemingEmily Piencziak
Accomplishments
• Preparation of gridded data sets for the entire summer of 2000 to initialize MM5
• Refinement of the FDAA data preparation:
1. Elevation of each sigma level varies with observation sites.
2. Observations are interpolated from two adjacent data levels to a given model level.
3. An anisotropic spatial influence function is being implemented and tested.
• Observational data preparation for model evaluation:
1. Hand editted (level 1C) winds and RASS from 25 wind profilers for 60 days (3 August – 2 October, 2000)
2. Data from 1 June – 2 August remain to be editted
3. PBL depths for entire period, all profilers, have been calculated
PBL Depth Estimation
36km grid 95x91
12km grid 91x91
4km grid 190x190
All have 50 layers, with 22 in lowest 1km
Subregions for Model Evaluation
Wind profilersites
A Major Issue to Settle
What is the best model configuration for the seasonal simulations?
Through:
• Evaluation of chemical model simulations
• Evaluation of major transport processes
• Comparison of the simulations using V6 and V7
• Comparison of WRF and MM5
Chemical Model Evaluation
• MM5 runs of two 5 day periods ( Jul 24- Jul 29 and Aug 3- Aug 8 2000) were completed.
• Analysis and comparison of the above two runs with observations have been started.
Comparison of the Simulated and Observed Surface Winds for the Jul-Aug Case
ABL Height Comparisons
(Colored contours are TKE, and dots indicate the observed ABL height)
Observed clouds vs Model Simulation
Solar Radiation Fluxes from Various Versions of Models for the Jul-Aug Case
Physics Configuration in MM5:• the MYJ ABL and surface layer schemes• the NOAH land surface model (LSM)• the Dudhia short-wave, RRTM long-wave radiation schemes• the Reisner microphysics parameterization• the Grell convective scheme (only on the 36 and 12 km grids) Physics Configuration in WRF:• the MYJ ABL and surface layer schemes• the NOAH land surface model (LSM)• the Dudhia short-wave, RRTM long-wave radiation schemes• the Lin et al. microphysics parameterization• the Kain-Fritsch convective scheme (only on the 36 km and 12 km grids)
NCEP’s ETA 40-km isobaric analysis is used to initialize both WRF and MM5 at 1200 UTC 29 July 2000.
Domain and Physics Configurations of MM5 and WRF
MM5WRF
36 kmTopography
4 kmTopography
4 kmTopography
36 kmTopography
4 kmVeg-Frac
4 kmVeg-Frac
4 kmLanduse
4 kmLanduse
MM5WRF
Differences of MM5 and WRF
Differences in the LSM Initialization
MM5WRF
Temperature at Soil Layer 1
Differences in the LSM Initialization
MM5WRF
Temperature at Soil Layer 2
Differences in the LSM Initialization
MM5WRF
Temperature at Soil Layer 3
Differences in the LSM Initialization
MM5WRF
Temperature at Soil Layer 4
Differences in the LSM Initialization
MM5WRF
Moisture at Soil Layer 1
Differences in the LSM Initialization
MM5WRF
Moisture at Soil Layer 2
Differences in the LSM Initialization
MM5WRF
Moisture at Soil Layer 3
Differences in the LSM Initialization
MM5WRF
Moisture at Soil Layer 4
Comparison of the simulated and observed areal averaged 2m temperatures and 10m winds
Comparison of the simulated and observed areal averaged 2m temperatures and 10m winds
Comparison of the simulated and observed areal averaged 2m temperatures and 10m winds
Comparison of the simulated and observed areal averaged 2m temperatures and 10m winds
WRF MM5WRF-mm5ics
from 1200 UTC 29 July to 1200 UTC 2 August
from 1200 UTC 29 July to 1200 UTC 2 August
from 1200 UTC 29 July to 1200 UTC 2 August
from 0000 UTC 30 July to 1200 UTC 2 August
from 0000 UTC 30 July to 1200 UTC 2 August
from 0000 UTC 30 July to 1200 UTC 2 August
from 1200 UTC 30 July to 1200 UTC 2 August
from 1200 UTC 30 July to 1200 UTC 2 August
from 1200 UTC 30 July to 1200 UTC 2 August
comparison of simulated forward trajectories
Conclusions
• Averaging meteorological input in time
• Optimizing “tunable” parameters through sensitivity experiments
• Improving cloud physics and cloud-radiation interaction
• Using MM5V3-6 for the seasonal modeling
• Undesirable noise in the FDDA run
• Uncertainties in the LSM
• Some differences in the simulated and observed clouds on cloudy days
Recommendations
