seasonal fire early warning system
TRANSCRIPT
SEASONAL FIRE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
Rizaldi Boer, M. Ardiansyah, A. Faqih, Achmad Siddik Thoha, Syamsoe Dwi Jatmiko, Anter Parulian Situmorang
CCROM SEAP-‐Bogor Agricultural University E-‐mail: [email protected] HP: +62811117660
h1p://geospasial.bnpb.go.id
IntroducDon: General Standard OperaDonal Procedure for Disaster Management
PREVENTION/MITIGATION
ANTICIPATION EMERGENCY RESPONSE
REHABILITATION/RECONSTRUCTION
No Disasters Post Disasters
Poten9ally Disaster will Occurs During Disaster
Funding for Disaster Management
• Indonesian Government RegulaDon No. 22/2008 on Financing and Aid Management: – ArDcle 12 reads: Funds for disaster management in the pre-‐disaster phase shall be allocated for acDviDes under the following circumstances:
• No incident reported; and • There is potenVal for a disaster to occur.
– ArDcle 14, paragraph (1), reads: The use of the funds for disaster management when there is potenVal for a disaster to occur referred to ArDcle 12, point b, includes their use for:
• Preparedness acDviDes; • Early warning system development; and • Disaster miDgaDon acDviDes.
Hotspot density increase significantly during longer dry season (El Nino years) in Kalteng
El Nino information and rainfall is very potential to be used for the development of seasonal fire early warning system
In Indonesia, long DS is often associated with El Nino events
DEFINING FIRE RISK
• Fire brigade (Manggala Agni)
• Fire care community • Extension services/field facilitators
• CommuniVes’/farmers’ insVtuVons
• PopulaVon • GDP of Districts • Indigenous land boundary
• Main source of income
• Land cover • Depth of peatland • Land system or landscape
• Presence of Water management
• Hotspot density • Distance to road • Distance to river • Distance to village center
• Distance form HTI/Oil Palm Licenses
• Readiness of HTI/HPH/etc Exposure Bio-‐physic
(SensiDvity)
AdapDve capacity
Social and economic (SensiDvity)
Forest Fire Vulnerability
Rescaled score of E,S,AC based
on its relaDonship to
hotspot
Composite Mapping Analysis
FV = f (E,S,AC)
Fire Vulnerability
Maps of fire vulnerability can be updated regularly as land use data and others available and also based on spaDal plan
Defining Fire Risk
Rainfall/Hotspot PredicVon
Fire Vulnerability
Below
Normal/High
Normal/Medium
Above
Normal/Low
Very High VH H M_H
High H M-‐H M
Medium M-‐H M M-‐L
Low M M-‐L L
Very Low M-‐L L VL
Fire Risk PredicDon
Model Hotspot
Rainfall forecast (good skill)
Vulnerability Map
Y = f(Rain) + error
Fire risk
Hotspot PredicDon
(1)
(2)
(3)
Peluang(HS(melewati((Batas(ambang(
Tingkat((Kerentanan(
(Tinggi((>60%)(
(Sedang((40>60)%(
(Rendah((<40%)(
Sangat(tinggi( ST( T( S>T(Tinggi( T( S>T( S(Sedang( S>T( S( S>R(Rendah( S( S>R( R(Sangat(rengdh( S>R( R( SR((
Fire risk classificaVon • VH = very high • H = high • M-‐H = medium – high • M = mediun • L-‐M= low – medium • L = low • VL = very low
50 x
28 forecast
Determ
inaD
on process
of fire risk level
Vulnerability map Hotspot/Rainfall predicDon
Fire risk map
Peluang(HS(melewati((Batas(ambang(
Tingkat((Kerentanan(
(Tinggi((>60%)(
(Sedang((40>60)%(
(Rendah((<40%)(
Sangat(tinggi( ST( T( S>T(Tinggi( T( S>T( S(Sedang( S>T( S( S>R(Rendah( S( S>R( R(Sangat(rengdh( S>R( R( SR((
Fire Risk System (h1p://kebakaranhutan.or.id)
Feature: #1 Fire Vulnerability Map of Central Kalimantan Province
Feature: #2 Fire Vulnerability Map of Kapuas District at Central Kalimantan
Feature: #3 Fire Vulnerability Map of Kapuas District At Central Kalimantan
Check land
cover of h
igh
vulnerable area
PredicDon of Fire Risk Map for Sep 2015
Fire Risk InformaDon by village (1-‐3 month lead Dme)
LaVtude (a-‐b)
Longitude (c-‐d)
Name of Villages
Fire Risk Index
a1-‐b1 c1-‐d1 Village 1 High a2-‐b2 c2-‐d2 Village 2, 3 Medium a3-‐b3 c3-‐d3 Village 4 Very High … … … … a4-‐b4 c4-‐d4 Village x, y High
Use of FRS for Fire Risk Management
PREVENTION ANTICIPATION EMERGENCY RESPONSE
REHABILITATION
Epilogue • FRS can be used to provide early informaDon about the possible danger of forest and land fire – PrevenVon: provides analysis to predict the potenDal forest and land fire
– Control: disseminate data and informaDon on near-‐real-‐Dme to certain stakeholders for fire control
– Law Enforcement: provides data and fact-‐based informaDon on violaDons of forest and land fire to be followed up legally
• IntervenDon that leads to lower hotspot number during the abnormal drought years may indicate lowering GHG emissions from peat fire (basis for incen2ves)
Toward Permanent SoluDon (Panjaitan, Ministry of Environment of Forestry, 2015)
• RegulaDons for corporate sustainability (Landscape management); e.g. mosaic systems, such as obligaDon to have reservoir per unit area of the concession, in addiDon to those already defined in the permit.
• Review or audit compliance and environmental permits; the imposiDon of sancDons for violaDons
• InsDtuDonal Strengthening & Leadership at the district and village • Design of policies for land clearing without burning (regulaDon,
subsidies, assistance, etc.) • Development of educaDon modules and generaDon love-‐environment
(Adiwiyata) • InsDtuDonal strengthening in society (grassroots / local level), led by
the Concerned CiDzens of Fire (Fire Fighters) and student/student. • Community Alliance Dered from naDonal level to the District /
Municipal/District /Village
New Approach in Fire Management in 2015 (Panjaitan, Ministry of Environment of Forestry, 2015)
• The instrument technology and analy2cal support legal ac2on
• Control instruments for HOTSPOT control, air quality as a result of land and forest fires (ISPU and PM10) and health problems caused by land and forest fires (ISPA)
• Enforcement of the law: – MulD-‐doors (using different laws and regula2ons) – Second line law enforcement – AdministraDve step law in parallel to Criminal Law and Civil
(Ministry of Environment of Forestry, 2015)
CollaboraDon with Directorate General of Law Enforcement and Police to seal fired area for further invesDgaDon (police line and sealed board) ~ deterrent effect (‘efek jera’)
Law Enforcement Efforts in Riau Province (Oct 2015) (Panjaitan, Ministry of Environment of Forestry, 2015)
No of cases Police Unit Burned
Area (ha) No of Suspect
Personal Corporate
68 Suspects and 23 cases completed (P21) Other Compliance Instrument: -‐ Economic incenDves/DisincenDves -‐ EducaDon
IncenDve for CommuniDes (Panjaitan, Ministry of Environment of Forestry, 2015)
• Providing subsidy and equipment support for land clearing without burning (PLTB)
• Procurement blocking the canal system to maintain water level (peat) • Fire exDnguishers forest and land • Environmentally friendly agriculture equipment's • Training rural economic development with environment friendly vision • Assist markeDng agricultural products for farmers who use PLTB • Help ferDlizer and ameliorant in order to increase soil ferDlity without
using the ash • GranDng seeds and rights to culDvate shrubs to rehabilitate peat using
commodiDes tolerant to shallow ground water level • Property tax holiday for people who do not burning • Scholarships for children / community members who are not burning
forest and land (government or CSR) • Discount for electricity cost • The assistance program or provide facilitaDon for community in
developing agribusiness acDviDes that do not burning forest and land etc
IncenDves for Companies (Panjaitan, Ministry of Environment of Forestry, 2015)
• Tax holiday for companies that acDvely implement forest fire control in its concession area and can prevent forest and land fires widely (recently on HCS)
• RecommendaDons for the cerDficaDon process of the company.
• Priority facilitate the financing of the company. • Guarantee the legality of the status of the region
considering many overlapping land status • Award in the field of environment for companies that do
not do and can prevent forest and land fires • Simple licensing procedure with longer permit duraDon for
green investment acDviDes • Etc
DisincenDves (Panjaitan, Ministry of Environment of Forestry, 2015)
• Law enforcement at all level (communiDes and the companies)
• Provide AdministraDve sancDons (freezing permits, reducing the area of the license, the imposiDon of fines, revocaDon of licenses)
• The imposiDon of civil penalDes / fines and criminal sancDons