sea-level rise adaptation: public and private responses · other areas, and/or the prevention of...
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Sea-level Rise Adaptation: Public and
Private Responses
Keren Prize Bolter, PhD
iCAR, 9/23/15
CRC, FAU, SFRC
Awareness
Communication
Change in Behavior
Being Safe & Prepared
Estimates of Global Sea Level Change by 2100
1.50
0.670.58
1.40
0.89
2.0
1.90
1.80
1.15
1.40
2.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
NRC 1987
IPCC 2001
IPCC 2007
Rahmstorf 2007
Horton 2008
Pfeffer 2008
Vermeer 2009
Jevrejeva 2010
Katsman 2011
NRC 2012
NCA 2012
Sea
Leve
l Ris
e (m
eter
s)
Comparison of Peer-reviewed Research Estimates: Global Sea Level Rise by 2100
0.5
0.090.19
0.5 0.54
0.80.75
0.590.55
0.5
0.2
USACE
2013NOAA
2012
IPCC
2013
0.5
Most Vulnerable US Cities to Storm Surge Flooding
• August 2015
4 Florida cities in top 10
• #1 - Tampa
• # 4 - Miami
• # 5 - Fort Myers
• # 7 - Sarasota
South Florida is not just “going underwater”…but
• Tidal Flooding
• Saltwater Intrusion
• Failing Drainage
• Malfunctioning
Canals
• Beach Erosion
• Habitat loss
Who is responsible for addressing these risks?
• Public/private partnerships must increase
What can we do?• These new challenges will require a whole
new way of thinking about planning for risk
Strategies for
Adaptation Action
Areas may include
Protection
Accommodation
Managed retreat
Avoidance
Other options
Protection
Strategies that involve “hard” and “soft” structurally defensive measures to mitigate impacts of rising seas in order to decrease vulnerability to coastal hazards while allowing structures and infrastructure to remain largely unaltered.
Accommodation
Strategies that do not act as a barrier, but rather alter the design through measures such as vertical elevation of structures or stormwater system improvements.
Managed Retreat/Relocation
Strategies that involve the possible relocation of existing development to other areas, and/or the prevention of future development in high-risk areas.
Avoidance
Involves guiding development away from areas subject to coastal hazards associated with sea level rise or where the risk of coastal flooding inundation is moderate at present but the risk may increase over time.
How can maps be more dynamic and translate the risk more effectively?
Standard flood models have severe limitations.
CRC adjusts its model with expected climate impacts.
1947
SAMPLE SITE:
516 Mola Avenue,Fort Lauderdale FL 33301View from north:usual climate conditions
View from north: This is the “new normal” during seasonal high tides.
SAMPLE SITE:
516 Mola Avenue,Fort Lauderdale FL 33301
View from north:Normal tidal
View from north:Extreme high tide 2013
How can we translate these changes to
Coastal Risk Rapid Assessment™
SAMPLE SITE: 516 Mola Avenue,Fort Lauderdale FL
33301
Current estimated value: $9,328,729
• Initial risk categories
• Elevation map
ProductsConsumer
FIRST Score & Coastal Risk Rapid Assessment
•Pay by the report
•Additional a-la-carte items
Commercial
Portfolio Scoring
•Subscription model
•FICO like scoring
•Used in mortgage or insurance portfolios
Flood Alert System
•Predicative flood scoring w/ LIDAR databases
•Used in nav systems incorporating real time weather data (e.g. integration w/ weather.com)
Consulting
•Large scale projects like government infrastructure improvements
•Custom pricing
Framing sea level rise messages
• Health Impacts
• Financial Impacts
• Cultural Preservation
• Habitat Loss
• Environmental
Justice
• Sustainability for
future generations
Groundwater Saltwater
FOR FURTHER INFORMATIONCONTACT:
Keren Prize Bolter, Science Director
ALBERT J. SLAP, PRESIDENT and CEO
COASTAL RISK CONSULTING, LLC
Real Property Climate Impact Due Diligence Modeling and Consulting