scup ( stenotomus chrysops ): 2012 update
DESCRIPTION
Scup ( Stenotomus chrysops ): 2012 Update. Managed as a unit stock from New England to Cape Hatteras, NC Maximum size & age fish in NEFSC SVs and fishery samples: SV: 1973 - 41 cm FL at age 14; 1976, 1978 - 38 cm at age 14 ; 2001 - 41 cm FL at age 9 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Scup (Stenotomus chrysops): 2012 Update
• Managed as a unit stock from New England to Cape Hatteras, NC
• Maximum size & age fish in NEFSC SVs and fishery samples:SV: 1973 - 41 cm FL at age 14; 1976, 1978 - 38 cm at age 14; 2001 - 41 cm FL at age 9Comm land: 1970s - 45-46 cm FL at ages 8-10, 40 cm at
14
• 50% mature at age 2; M = 0.20
• Commercial trawl fishery; recreational rod and reel fishery• Comm. landings ~50%; Comm. discards ~30%• Rec. landings ~20%; Rec. discards <1%
• NEFSC SVs peaked in late 1970s, early 2000s• Comm landings (and probably total catch) peaked in 1955-1965
ScupTotal Commercial Landings and NEFSC Spring Biomass Index
Year
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Met
ric T
ons
(live
wei
ght)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
NEF
SC S
prin
g (k
g pe
r tow
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Total commercial landings and NEFSC Survey Spring biomass index.
Assessment history Scup (Stenotomus chrysops)
• First analytical assessment: 1995 SAW 19 - ADAPT VPAHigh CVs on estimated Ns; uncertain comm discards (constant ratio for 1984-1988; high variability in rates for 1989-1994)
• 1997 SAW 25: “Poor quality of input data” (Discard estimation, landings length sampling); assessment downgraded to “exploratory VPA” to provide general trends
• 1998 SAW 27: “Exploratory VPA” and ASPIC production model rejected as basis for management; index approach adopted; NEFSC, MADMF, RIDFW, CTDEP, NJBMF available
• NEFSC Spring used for Biomass BRP = SSBMSY Threshold;
SAW 19 YPR Fmax = FMSY
Assessment historyScup (Stenotomus chrysops)
• 1998 SAW 27: Recommended move to index-based assessment– 1955-1965: Sustainable commercial landings ~20,000 mt – stock at
BMSY– Late 1970s: closest NEFSC SV peak – commercial landings at
about one-half of 1955-1965 level – stock at one-half BMSY • NEFSC Spring used for Biomass BRP = SSBMSY Threshold =
1977-1979 mean = 2.77 SSB kg/tow; SAW 19 YPR Fmax = FMSY = 0.26
• SAW27 Recommendations adopted in FMP Amendment 12 as basis for BRPs
• Amendment 14 formalized proxy BMSY = 2*2.77 = 5.54 SSBkg/tow
Assessment historyScup (Stenotomus chrysops)
• 2000 SAW 31: Index-based for biomass (NEFSC Spring SBBkg/tow) and F (catch curves); F => 1.0 for ages 0-3
• 2002 SAW 35: Index-based; Relative Exploitation Index (landings/index) developed to help set quotas; F = unknown
• 2003-2008: MAFMC Monitoring Committee updates of NEFSC Spring SSB Index basis for biomass status; No reliable F estimates – use REI to monitor F
Data Poor Stocks Working Group (DPSWG) 2008Scup (Stenotomus chrysops)
• ASAP model: sufficient as basis for stock assessment
• Non-parametric BRPs: SSB/R, Y/R to get Fmax, F40% (M= 0.20)
• R from 1984-2007 (period with fishery and SV age data)
• MCMC for year T+1 Ns for AGEPRO
• AGEPRO for SSBMSY, 2009 TAC
• Considered multiple configurations and model settings to evaluate sensitivity and uncertainty
Data Poor Stocks Working GroupScup (Stenotomus chrysops): December 2008
• Scup not overfished, overfishing not occurring in 2007
• Improved R and low F, SSB increased to 119,000 mt in 2007, F decreased to 0.05 in 2007, relative to:
• SSBMSY = SSB40% = 92,044 mt• FMSY = F40% = 0.177 (M = 0.2)• MSY = 16,161 mt total catch; 13,134 mt landings; 3,027 mt discards
Data Poor Stocks Working GroupScup (Stenotomus chrysops): December 2008
• DPSWG 2008 Peer Review Panel Advice:
• "...rapid increases in quota to meet the revised MSY would be unwarranted given uncertainties in recruitments. A more gradual increase in quotas is a preferred approach reflective of the uncertainty in the model estimates and stock status.“
• TAC 2009: 7,049 mt = 15.54 mlbs• TAL 2009: 5,071 mt = 11.18 mlbs
Scup (Stenotomus chrysops): 2009 Update
• Status for 2008: Not Overfished, Not Overfishing• SSB2008 = 188,000 mt; • F2008 = 0.042 (fully recruited ages 2-7+); • R2008 = 192.4 million age 0 fish
• TAC for 2010: 7,752 mt (17.090 mlbs)• TAL for 2010: 6,400 mt (14.110 mlbs)• Increase of 10% over 2009 TAC
Scup (Stenotomus chrysops): 2010 Update
• Status for 2009: Not Overfished, Not Overfishing• SSB2009 = 155,000 mt; • F2009 = 0.043 (fully recruited ages 2-7+); • R2009 = 140 million age 0 fish
• ACL for 2011: 14,479 mt (31.920 mlbs)• TAL for 2011: 12,020 mt (26.500 mlbs)• Increase of 87% over 2010 TAC
Scup (Stenotomus chrysops): 2011 Update
• Status for 2010: Not Overfished, Not Overfishing• SSB2010 = 186,000 mt; • F2010 = 0.040 (fully recruited ages 2-7+); • R2010 = 44 million age 0 fish
• ACL for 2012: 18,543 mt (40.881 mlbs)• TAL for 2012: 16,749 mt (36.925 mlbs)• Increase of 163% (2.6 x) over 2009 TAC (ACT)
Scup (Stenotomus chrysops): 2012 Update
• Update Landings and Discards through 2011• Update Survey Indices through 2011• Age compositions use 2011 ALKs• Retain DPSWG 2008 Assessment ASAP
configuration and run model• Update status for 2011• Assume 2012 TAL (landings quota) is caught• Make projection to determine 2013 OFL
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Scup Fishery Sampling Intensity
Comm Land Comm Disc Rec Land Rec Disc
Year
Met
ric to
ns p
er 1
00 le
ngth
s
Rec
Disc
Met
ric to
ns p
er 1
00 le
ngth
s
Scup Total Catch Mean Weights at Age
Year1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Mea
n w
eigh
t (kg
)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0Ages 0 - Age 7+
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
NEFSC Biomass Indices
Spring Fall Winter
Year
Surv
ey k
g/to
w
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Scup Age 0 Abundance Indices
NEFSC CTDEP NYDEC VIMS RIDFW Trap
Year
Surv
ey N
/tow
RIDF
W T
rap
N/hr
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45 MADMF Biomass Indices
Spring Fall
Year
Surv
ey k
g/to
w
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
RIDFW Indices
Fall Spring Coop Trap
Year
Fall
Surv
ey k
g/to
w
Sprin
g Su
rvey
kg/
tow
; Tra
p N
/trap
/hr
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
URIGSO Abundance Index
URIGSO
Year
URIG
SO N
/tow
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100
5
10
15
20
25
30
35 CTDEP Biomass Indices
Spring Fall
Year
Surv
ey k
g/to
w
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100
1
2
3
4
5
6
7 NYDEC Abundance Index
NYDEC
Year
Surv
ey A
ge 2
+ N/
tow
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45 NJDFW Biomass Index
NJDFW
Year
Surv
ey k
g/to
w
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
ChesMMAP and NEAMAP Biomass Indices
ChesMMAP NEAMAP Spring NEAMAP Fall
Year
Ches
MM
AP k
g/to
w
NEAM
AP k
g/to
w
NEFSC Spring Survey Indices by Age
Age (years)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Yea
r
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
+
NEFSC Fall Survey Indices by Age
Age (years)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Yea
r
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
+
NEFSC Winter Survey Indices by Age
Age (years)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Yea
r
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010+
CTDEP Spring Survey Indices by Age
Age (years)
1 2 3 4 5
Yea
r
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
+
CTDEP Fall Survey Indices by Age
Age (years)
0 1 2 3 4 5
Yea
r
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
+
NYDEC Survey Indices by Age
Age (years)
0 1 2
Yea
r
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Scup (Stenotomus chrysops): 2012 Update
• Status for 2011: Not Overfished; Not Overfishing• SSB2011 = 190,000 mt; • F2011 = 0.034 (fully recruited ages 2-7+); • R2011 = 154 million age 0 fish
• Currently no “internal” retrospective patterns
SSB (000s mt)
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200
Fish
ing
Mor
talit
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
FMSY = F40% = 0.177
0.5*SSBMSY= 46,022 mt
SSBMSY = 92,044 mt
1996
1997
1998
1999
20002001 2002
20032004
20052006
2007 2009
1995
2008 20102011
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
Scup Assessment ComparisonMRIP: MRFSS ratio = 1.028
MRFSS MRIP
Year
SSB
(mt)
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Total Catch and Fishing Mortality
Total Catch F
Year
Cat
ch (m
t)
Fish
ing
mor
talit
y (F
)
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) and Recruitment (R)
R SSB
Year
SSB
(mt)
R (a
ge 0
, mill
ions
)
0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000 175,000 200,0000
50
100
150
200
250
Scup S-R Datafor 1984-2011 Year Classes
SSB (mt)
R (a
ge 0
, mill
ions
) 2011
Scup (Stenotomus chrysops): 2012 Update
• A between-assessment comparison provides another measure of assessment uncertainty due to “historical retrospective” in model estimates
• The 2012 update SSB and F estimates are intermediate with respect to the 2008 DPSWG assessment and 2009 update estimates and close to the 2010-2011 update estimates;
• The 2012 recruitment estimates are in general larger compared to the 2011 assessment
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
Scup Assessment Comparison
DPS2008 S2009_UPDATES2010_UPDATE S2011_UPDATES2012_UPDATE
Year
SSB
(mt)
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Scup Assessment Comparison
DPS2008 S2009_UPDATE S2010_UPDATES2011_UPDATE S2012_UPDATE
Year
Fish
ing
Mor
talit
y
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Scup Assessment Comparison
DPS2008 S2009_UPDATES2010_UPDATE S2011_UPDATES2012_UPDATE 1984-2011 Mean
Year
Rec
ruits
: age
0 (m
illio
ns)
Scup (Stenotomus chrysops): 2012 Update• Short term projection for 2013 OFL
• Use 2008 DPSWG BRPs (SSBMSY = 92,044 mt; FMSY = 0.177)
• AGEPRO stochastic projection– resample 1984-2011 CDF of age 0 recruitment
• Note MSY = 13,134 mt of Total Landings + 3,027 mt Total Disc = 16,161 mt of Total Catch
• Specify Landings in 2012 = TAL = 16,749 mt; • Median Discards = 3,334 mt; median Total Catch = 20,083 mt • Median F2012 = 0.158, below FMSY• Median SSB2012 = 204,000 mt, above Btarget
Scup (Stenotomus chrysops): 2012 Update
• Specify F in 2013 = FSMY = 0.177
Total Catch = 21,680 mt = Overfishing Limit (OFL for 2013) Landings = 17,981 mt and Discards = 3,721 mt(note: independent medians so do not exactly total)
Median SSB2013 = 196,000 mt, above Btarget