scotiabank financials summit - lfg scotiabank - r. freitag presentation.pdfscotiabank financials...
TRANSCRIPT
SEPTEMBER 4, 2014 | TORONTO, CANADA
©2014 Lincoln National Corporation
SCOTIABANK FINANCIALS SUMMIT
Randy FreitagExecutive Vice President and CFO
Randy FreitagExecutive Vice President and CFO
FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS – CAUTIONARY LANGUAGE
Certain statements made in this presentation and in other written or oral statements made by Lincoln or on Lincoln's behalf are "forward-looking statements" within the
meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 ("PSLRA"). A forward-looking statement is a statement that is not a historical fact and, without limitation,
includes any statement that may predict, forecast, indicate or imply future results, performance or achievements, and may contain words like: "believe", "anticipate",
"expect", "estimate", "project", "will", "shall" and other words or phrases with similar meaning in connection with a discussion of future operating or financial
performance. In particular, these include statements relating to future actions, trends in Lincoln's businesses, prospective services or products, future performance or
financial results, and the outcome of contingencies, such as legal proceedings. Lincoln claims the protection afforded by the safe harbor for forward-looking statements
provided by the PSLRA.
Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from the results contained in the forward-looking statements.
Risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to vary materially, some of which are described within the forward-looking statements include, among others:
• Deterioration in general economic and business conditions that may affect account values, investment results, guaranteed benefit liabilities, premium levels, claims
experience and the level of pension benefit costs, funding and investment results;
• Adverse global capital and credit market conditions could affect our ability to raise capital, if necessary, and may cause us to realize impairments on investments and
certain intangible assets, including goodwill and the valuation allowance against deferred tax assets, which may reduce future earnings and/or affect our financial
condition and ability to raise additional capital or refinance existing debt as it matures;
• Because of our holding company structure, the inability of our subsidiaries to pay dividends to the holding company in sufficient amounts could harm the holding
Company’s ability to meet its obligations;
• Legislative, regulatory or tax changes, both domestic and foreign, that affect the cost of, or demand for, our subsidiaries' products, the required amount of reserves
and/or surplus, or otherwise affect our ability to conduct business, including changes to statutory reserve requirements related to secondary guarantee universal life and
annuities; regulations regarding captive reinsurance arrangements; restrictions on revenue sharing and 12b-1 payments; and the potential for U.S. Federal tax reform;
• Actions taken by reinsurers to raise rates on in force business;
• Declines in or sustained low interest rates causing a reduction in investment income, the interest margins of our businesses, estimated gross profits and demand for our
products;
• Rapidly increasing interest rates causing contract holders to surrender life insurance and annuity policies, thereby causing realized investment losses, and reduced hedge
performance related to variable annuities;
• Uncertainty about the effect of rules and regulations to be promulgated under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act on us and the economy
and financial services sector in particular;
• The initiation of legal or regulatory proceedings against us, and the outcome of any legal or regulatory proceedings, such as: adverse actions related to present or past
business practices common in businesses in which we compete; adverse decisions in significant actions including, but not limited to, actions brought by federal and state
authorities and class action cases; new decisions that result in changes in law; and unexpected trial court rulings;
• A decline in the equity markets causing a reduction in the sales of our subsidiaries' products, a reduction of asset-based fees that our subsidiaries charge on various
investment and insurance products, an acceleration of the net amortization of deferred acquisition costs, or "DAC," value of business acquired, or "VOBA," deferred sales
inducements, or "DSI," and deferred front end sales loads, or "DFEL," and an increase in liabilities related to guaranteed benefit features of our subsidiaries' variable
annuity products;
2
FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS – CAUTIONARY LANGUAGE (CONT’D)
• Ineffectiveness of our risk management policies and procedures, including various hedging strategies used to offset the effect of changes in the value of liabilities due to
changes in the level and volatility of the equity markets and interest rates;
• A deviation in actual experience regarding future persistency, mortality, morbidity, interest rates or equity market returns from the assumptions used in pricing our
subsidiaries' products, in establishing related insurance reserves and in the net amortization of DAC, VOBA, DSI and DFEL, which may reduce future earnings;
• Changes in accounting principles generally accepted in the United States, or "GAAP," including convergence with International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”),
that may result in unanticipated changes to our net income;
• Lowering of one or more of our debt ratings issued by nationally recognized statistical rating organizations and the adverse effect such action may have on our ability to
raise capital and on our liquidity and financial condition;
• Lowering of one or more of the insurer financial strength ratings of our insurance subsidiaries and the adverse effect such action may have on the premium writings,
policy retention, profitability of our insurance subsidiaries and liquidity;
• Significant credit, accounting, fraud, corporate governance or other issues that may adversely affect the value of certain investments in our portfolios as well as
counterparties to which we are exposed to credit risk requiring that we realize losses on investments;
• Inability to protect our intellectual property rights or claims of infringement of the intellectual property rights of others;
• Interruption in telecommunication, information technology or other operational systems or failure to safeguard the confidentiality or privacy of sensitive data on such
systems from cyberattacks or other breaches of our data security systems;
• The effect of acquisitions and divestitures, restructurings, product withdrawals and other unusual items;
• The adequacy and collectability of reinsurance that we have purchased;
• Acts of terrorism, a pandemic, war or other man-made and natural catastrophes that may adversely affect our businesses and the cost and availability of reinsurance;
• Competitive conditions, including pricing pressures, new product offerings and the emergence of new competitors, that may affect the level of premiums and fees that
our subsidiaries can charge for their products;
• The unknown effect on our subsidiaries' businesses resulting from changes in the demographics of their client base, as aging baby-boomers move from the asset-
accumulation stage to the asset-distribution stage of life; and
• Loss of key management, financial planners or wholesalers.
The risks included here are not exhaustive. Our annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, current reports on Form 8-K and other documents filed with
the SEC include additional factors which could impact our business and financial performance. Moreover, we operate in a rapidly changing and competitive environment.
New risk factors emerge from time to time, and it is not possible for management to predict all such risk factors.
Further, it is not possible to assess the impact of all risk factors on our businesses or the extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause actual results to
differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statements. Given these risks and uncertainties, investors should not place undue reliance on forward-
looking statements as a prediction of actual results. In addition, Lincoln disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements to reflect events or
circumstances that occur after the date of this presentation.
The reporting of RBC measures is not intended for the purpose of ranking any insurance company or for use in connection with any marketing, advertising or promotional
activities.
3
�Demonstrated Results
�Growth-Oriented Franchise
�Capital Management
�Upside Potential
4
WHY INVEST IN LINCOLN?
5
STRONG OPERATING PERFORMANCE
1 Dollars in millions unless otherwise noted. See Appendix for a definition and reconciliation of Income from Operations and ROE to Net Income
2 Calculated compound annual growth rate from 2009 to 2013
3 Estimated as of June 30, 2014 and June 30, 2013, respectively
-77 -5137 21
75 78
247 268
353443
1H 2013 1H 2014Annuities Life Insurance
Retirement Plan Services Group Protection
Other Operations
$759
$635
Income from Operations1
+20%
Financial Highlights
1H
2014
∆ from
1H 2013CAGR2
Operating Revenues $6.5B 9% 6%
Operating EPS $2.80 22% 15%
Operating ROE1 12.6%
BVPS ex. AOCI $46.97 9% 8%
Risk-Based Capital3 503%
Account Balances $216B 15% 10%
�Demonstrated Results
�Growth-Oriented Franchise
�Capital Management
�Upside Potential
6
WHY INVEST IN LINCOLN?
6%
35% 12%
17%
30%
BROAD AND DEEP DISTRIBUTION CREATES COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE
1 June 2014 YTD Normalized Sales (Life, MoneyGuard and Group Protection: Paid Annualized Premiums as reported; Annuity/Retirement Plan Services at 5% of Deposits)
2 Compared to 2Q 2013
3 Source: Investment News
Bank
Independent Planner
Wire/Regional
Brokerage
Consultants/ Benefit Brokers
LFD
LFN
Worksite
Sales by Channel1604Wholesalers
8,540Advisors
348Group Benefits
Reps
352Retirement
Consultants, Advisorsand Relationship
Managers
• 2Q 2014 Productivity Gains2
– 4% increase in repeat
producers
– 12% increase in the number of
producers selling multiple
Lincoln products
• Leveraging relationships
– Small case 401(k) on Merrill
Lynch, Wells Fargo and
Ameriprise platforms
• LFN ranked #2 independent
producer sales force in 20133
Highlights
7
8
ANNUITIESA Balanced Approach To Managing Growth and Diversifying Risk
• Objective: 70%/30% split of VA deposits with/without Living Benefits
• 2Q 2014 results: 77%/23% (58%/42% net of reinsurance)
• GLB rider now only available with risk-managed funds
22%
43%
20%
15%
Annuities Account Value
VA without GLB
VA with GLB: non-
risk-managed funds
VA with GLB: risk-
managed funds
Fixed Annuity
$121 Billion
(as of 6/30/2014)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Variable Annuity (VA) Deposits ($B)
without GLB
with reinsured
GLB
with GLB
1 GLB = Guaranteed Living Benefit (rider)
1
1
9
VARIABLE ANNUITY RISK MANAGEMENT: A DIFFERENTIATOR
Year Annuities ROE1Pro-forma Annuities
ROE1,2
2013 25% 25%
2012 20% 23%
2011 23% 15%
2010 21% 20%
2009 15% 12%
Average ~21%3 ~19%3
1 Operating ROE, excluding goodwill.
2 Estimated including net derivative results after-DAC, after-tax, excluding impact of NPR. Only includes impact to non-operating income.
3 Arithmetic average of listed years
Superior Risk Management
• Quality of VA hedge program
evident in results
• Consistent approach to benefit
features
• Reasonable pricing and
policyholder behavior assumptions
• Minimal effect from hedging and
policyholder behavior
– ~2% average annual ROE
impact in the last five years
23%
10%
12%
2%
32%
15%
6%
MoneyGuard Indexed UL GUL
Other UL VUL Term
COLI/BOLI
11%2%
61%
2%
6%
10%
8%
10
LIFE INSURANCEGrowth Through Innovation, Market Expansion and Risk Diversification
Actions to Drive Profitable Growth
• Diversifying sales mix
– GUL 61% of sales in 2009, 12% in 1H 2014
– 5 products greater than 10% of 1H 2014
sales
• All products priced to earn 12-15% on new
business
• Focus on less interest rate sensitive products
(Indexed UL, VUL, and Term)
– 18% of sales in 2009 versus 57% in 1H 2014
• Continued innovation and market expansion
– MoneyGuard® II
– Survivorship Indexed UL
– Retail COLI
Life Insurance Sales by Product
2009 1H 2014
11
RETIREMENT PLAN SERVICESTargeting Growing Market Segments
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 1H 2014
Account Value ($B)
• Market segment focus
– Healthcare
– Corporate – Small and Mid-Large 401(k)
– Government
• Distribution: Investing for growth
– Establishing new relationships in mid-
large market
– Over 40% of 2Q 2014 sales from
new consultants
– 25% increase in small-market sales force1
• Focusing on the bottom line
– Proactively managing spread
compression
– Ensure technology upgrade efficiencies
are realized
1 2Q 2014 versus 2Q 2013
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 1H 2014
Deposits ($B)
1H
+9%
12
GROUP PROTECTIONThe Right Strategy, Pricing Actions and Leadership
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1H 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 2Q-4Q 2015 2016
Pre
miu
m (
$b
illi
on
s)
Repricing $1.1B of Premium
Repriced during Period Financial Emergence
• Repricing ~50% of the business
– Employer-paid Disability Income and Life Insurance
• Strengthening new business returns
• Review of claims administrative
resources
• New leadership
Restoring Profitability
53%
47%
2013
Employer-Paid Employee-Paid
62%
38%
2012
Sales by Type
• 100-1,000 employees
Strength in Core Market
Targeting Growth in Select Markets
• Employee-paid
• Broaden base by expanding into the
1,000-5,000 employee market
�Demonstrated Results
�Growth-Oriented Franchise
�Capital Management
�Upside Potential
13
WHY INVEST IN LINCOLN?
0%
20%
40%
60%
0
200
400
600
800
2010 2011 2012 2013 1H 2014Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid
Payout as a % of Income from Operations1
14
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Share Repurchases and Dividend Payout ($M) Active Capital Management (15 Qtrs.)
• $1.9B of share repurchases through
June 30, 2014
– 20% of shares outstanding as of
September 30, 2010
• Annualized dividend payout increase
from $12 million to $168 million
• $495 million net debt reduction
Strong Capital and Liquidity Positions
• $1.1 billion increase in Total Adjusted
Capital
• Stable and strong RBC ratio
• Maintain minimum $500 million cash
balance at the holding company
1 See Appendix for a definition and reconciliation of Income from Operations
2 As of December 31, 2010. Estimated as of June 30, 2014.
($ millions) 2010 1H 2014
Total Adjusted Capital $7,126 $8,244
Risk-Based Capital2 $1,453 $1,639
Risk-Based Capital %2 491% 503%
Cash at Holding Company $673 $573
Statutory Balance Sheet
�Demonstrated Results
�Growth-Oriented Franchise
�Capital Management
�Upside Potential
15
WHY INVEST IN LINCOLN?
• Interest Rates
– 100 bps increase ≈ $15 million of operating earnings in year 1
– ~$30 million annual increase in subsequent years
• Group Protection earnings
– 1H 2014 margin of 2%
– Potential 5-7% after-tax margin on $2 billion of premiums
• Multiple expansion
16
CATALYSTS FOR UPSIDE POTENTIAL
17
MULTIPLE EXPANSION POTENTIAL
Earnings Category% of
Earnings1
P/E
MultipleWeighted Drivers
Mortality/Morbidity 25% 11 3 Insurance inforce
Investment Spread 38% 11 4 Interest rates, fixed AUM
Fees on AUM 32% 16 5 Equity markets, separate account AUM
VA rider fees 5% 0 0 Guaranteed amount, cost of hedging
100% 12
Current2 ~9
1 Full year 2013, Pre-Tax, excludes Other Operations
2 Forward P/E as of August 25, 2014. Source: Ipreo.
3 Peer group includes GNW, HIG, VOYA, MFC, MET, PFG, PL, PRU, SFG, SLF, SYA, TMK, UNM
Peer group P/E multiple range of 9-132,3
� Demonstrated Results
• 4-year CAGR of reported earnings per share of 15%
• Consistent approach driving superior variable annuity earnings and hedge results
� Growth-Oriented Franchise
• Target faster growing market segments for retail products
• Use distribution strength to enter new markets
� Capital Management
• Balanced approach to capital deployment: new business/buybacks/dividends
� Upside Potential Over Time
• Rising interest rates
• Improving Group Protection results
18
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Guided by a Clear and Consistent Strategy
APPENDIX
19
RECONCILIATION OF NET INCOME TO INCOME FROM OPERATIONS
(mil lions of dollars, except per share data)
2013 2014 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total Revenues 5,838$ 6,457$ 8,473$ 10,415$ 10,641$ 11,532$ 11,969$
Less:
Excluded realized gain (loss) (142) (63) (1,229) (144) (388) (39) (274)
Amortization of DFEL on benefit ratio unlocking - - (4) - (1) 2 1
Amortization of deferred gains arising from reserve
changes on business sold through reinsurance 2 1 3 3 3 3 3
Total Operating Revenues 5,978$ 6,519$ 9,703$ 10,556$ 11,027$ 11,566$ 12,239$
Net Income (Loss) Available to Common
Stockholders - Diluted 556$ 727$ (639)$ 733$ 216$ 1,313$ 1,244$
Less:
Preferred stock dividends and accretion of discount - - (34) (36) - - -
Write-off of unamortized discount on preferred stock at redemption - - - (131) - - -
Adjustment for deferred units of LNC stock in our
deferred compensation plans (1)
- - - (2) (5) - -
Net Income (Loss) 556 727 (605) 902 221 1,313 1,244
Less (2)
:
Excluded realized gain (loss) (92) (42) (800) (94) (252) (25) (178)
Benefit ratio unlocking 12 9 90 11 (15) 25 36
Income (loss) from reserve changes (net of related
amortization) on business sold through reinsurance 1 1 2 2 2 3 2
Gain (loss) on early extinguishment of debt - - 42 (3) (5) (3) -
Impairment of intangibles - - (710) - (747) 2 -
Income (loss) from discontinued operations - - (73) 29 (8) 27 -
Income (Loss) from Operations 635$ 759$ 844$ 957$ 1,246$ 1,284$ 1,384$
Earnings (Loss) Per Common Share (Diluted)
Income (loss) from operations 2.29$ 2.80$ 2.83$ 2.88$ 3.94$ 4.47$ 5.03$
Net income (loss) 2.01 2.69 (2.23) 2.31 0.69 4.56 4.52
(1)
(2)
For the Years Ended December 31,
The numerator used in the calculation of our diluted EPS is adjusted to remove the mark-to-market adjustment for deferred units of LNC stock in our deferred compensation plans if the effect of equity
classification would be more dilutive to our diluted EPS.
We use our federal income tax rate of 35% while taking into account any permanent differences for events recognized differently in our financial statements and federal income tax returns when
reconcil ing our non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measure.
For the Six Months Ended June 30,
20
RECONCILIATION OF RETURN ON AVERAGE EQUITY
2013 2014
Average equity including goodwill1
11,288$ 12,052$
Income from operations 635 759
Return on average equity - reported including goodwill1
11.3% 12.6%
Average equity including goodwill1
11,288$ 12,052$
Net income 556 727
Return on average equity - reported including goodwill1
9.9% 12.1%
1Excludes AOCI
For the Six Months Ended June 30,
21