scorpio tankers inc. fourth quarter and full year 2019 ... · q4-19 highlights q4-19 adjusted net...

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February 19, 2020 Scorpio Tankers Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation

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Page 1: Scorpio Tankers Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 ... · Q4-19 Highlights Q4-19 Adjusted Net Profit • Adjusted net profit of $12.0 million or $0.22 per share for Q4-19, compared

February 19, 2020

Scorpio Tankers Inc.

Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation

Page 2: Scorpio Tankers Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 ... · Q4-19 Highlights Q4-19 Adjusted Net Profit • Adjusted net profit of $12.0 million or $0.22 per share for Q4-19, compared

2

Disclaimer and Forward-looking Statements

This presentation includes “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements reflect Scorpio Tankers Inc.’s (“Scorpio’s”) current views with respect to future events and financial performance. The words “believe,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “estimate,” “forecast,” “project,” “plan,” “potential,” “may,” “should,” “expect” and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements in this presentation are based upon various assumptions, many of which are based, in turn, upon further assumptions, including without limitation, management’s examination of historical operating trends, data contained in Scorpio’s records and other data available from third parties. Although Scorpio believes that these assumptions were reasonable when made, because these assumptions are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies which are difficult or impossible to predict and are beyond Scorpio’s control, Scorpio cannot assure you that it will achieve or accomplish these expectations, beliefs, projections or future financial performance.

Risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the failure of counterparties to fully perform their contracts with Scorpio, the strength of world economies and currencies, general market conditions, including fluctuations in charter hire rates and vessel values, changes in demand in the tanker vessel markets, changes in Scorpio’s operating expenses, including bunker prices, drydocking and insurance costs, the fuel efficiency of our vessels, the market for Scorpio's vessels, availability of financing and refinancing, charter counterparty performance, ability to obtain financing and comply with covenants in such financing arrangements, changes in governmental and environmental rules and regulations or actions taken by regulatory authorities including those that may limit the commercial useful lives of tankers, potential liability from pending or future litigation, general domestic and international political conditions, potential disruption of shipping routes due to accidents or political events, and other important factors described from time to time in the reports Scorpio files with, or furnishes to, the Securities and Exchange Commission, or the Commission, and the New York Stock Exchange, or NYSE. Scorpio undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of Scorpio's future performance, and actual results and future developments may vary materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements

This presentation describes time charter equivalent revenue, or TCE revenue, which is not a measure prepared in accordance with IFRS (i.e. a "Non-IFRS" measure). TCE revenue is presented here because we believe that it provides investors with a means of evaluating and understanding how the Company's management evaluates the Company's operating performance. This Non-IFRS measure should not be considered in isolation from, as a substitute for, or superior to financial measures prepared in accordance with IFRS.

The Company believes that the presentation of TCE revenue is useful to investors because it facilitates the comparability and the evaluation of companies in the Company’s industry. In addition, the Company believes that TCE revenue is useful in evaluating its operating performance compared to that of other companies in the Company’s industry. The Company’s definition of TCE revenue may not be the same as reported by other companies in the shipping industry or other industries. See appendix for a reconciliation of TCE revenue to revenue, please see the Appendix of this presentation.

Unless otherwise indicated, information contained in this presentation concerning Scorpio’s industry and the market in which it operates, including its general expectations about its industry, market position, market opportunity and market size, is based on data from various sources including internal data and estimates as well as third party sources widely available to the public such as independent industry publications, government publications, reports by market research firms or other published independent sources. Internal data and estimates are based upon this information as well as information obtained from trade and business organizations and other contacts in the markets in which Scorpio operates and management’s understanding of industry conditions. This information, data and estimates involve a number of assumptions and limitations, are subject to risks and uncertainties, and are subject to change based on various factors, including those discussed above. You are cautioned not to give undue weight to such information, data and estimates. While Scorpio believes the market and industry information included in this presentation to be generally reliable, it has not independently verified any third-party information or verified that more recent information is not available.

Page 3: Scorpio Tankers Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 ... · Q4-19 Highlights Q4-19 Adjusted Net Profit • Adjusted net profit of $12.0 million or $0.22 per share for Q4-19, compared

3

Q4-19 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation

• Q4-19 Financial Highlights

• YoY Quarterly & Annual Performance

• Q1-19 Guidance

• Scrubber Update

• Market Update

• Coronavirus

• IMO 2020

• Long Term Fundamentals

Agenda

Page 4: Scorpio Tankers Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 ... · Q4-19 Highlights Q4-19 Adjusted Net Profit • Adjusted net profit of $12.0 million or $0.22 per share for Q4-19, compared

4

Q4-19 Highlights

Q4-19

Adjusted Net Profit• Adjusted net profit of $12.0 million or $0.22 per share for Q4-19, compared to adjusted net loss of $17.7 million or $0.38 per share in Q4-18

Q4-19 Product Rates • Company’s average fleet TCE increased from $15,008 in Q4-18 to $19,910 in Q4-19, an increase of $4,900 per day

Increase in Cash Flow from

Operations• FY 2019 cash flow from operations of $209.5 million compared to $57.8 million in FY 2018, an increase of 263%

Vessel Refinancing’s• In Q4-19, the Company executed two term loan facilities with Prudential Private Capital and Hamburg Commercial Bank AG for a $99.1 million in

aggregate. The Company raised approximately $32.5 million in aggregate new liquidity as a result of these transactions

Scrubber Financing

• As of February 19, the Company has received commitments for an additional eight different facilities to partially finance the purchase and installation

of exhaust gas cleaning systems ("scrubbers") on certain of the Company's vessels.

• These commitments are expected to increase the Company’s liquidity by approximately $118.7 million. The drawdowns are expected to occur as the

scrubbers are installed throughout the remainder of 2020.

Scrubber Installations • The Company has 55 vessels on the water with exhaust gas cleaning systems “scrubbers”

Liquidity as of February 18, 2020• As of February 17, 2020, the Company had $164.7 million in unrestricted cash and cash equivalents

Quarterly Dividend• On February 18, 2020, the Company's Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per common share, payable on or about March

13, 2020 to all shareholders of record as of March 2, 2020 (the record date).

Page 5: Scorpio Tankers Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 ... · Q4-19 Highlights Q4-19 Adjusted Net Profit • Adjusted net profit of $12.0 million or $0.22 per share for Q4-19, compared

5

YoY Quarterly Performance

$16,228

$13,548$14,412

$14,999

$24,987

$17,648 $17,261

$19,294

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

LR2 LR1 MR HM

Q4-18 Q4-19

Average Daily TCE ($/day) Financial Performance (USD$ Millions)

Significant Improvement in YoY Quarterly Performance Pre IMO 2020

$168

$78

$23$28

$222

$124

$69

$59

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

Revenue Adjusted EBITDA Cash Flow FromOperating

Operating Income

Q4-18 Q4-19

Page 6: Scorpio Tankers Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 ... · Q4-19 Highlights Q4-19 Adjusted Net Profit • Adjusted net profit of $12.0 million or $0.22 per share for Q4-19, compared

6

YoY Annual Performance

Average Daily TCE ($/day) Financial Performance (USD$ Millions)

$13,968

$10,775

$12,589$12,196

$20,254

$15,846$15,095

$14,575

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

LR2 LR1 MR HM

FY-18 FY-19

Significant Improvement in YoY Performance Pre IMO 2020

$585

$212

$58

$11

$704

$364

$210

$130

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

Revenue Adjusted EBITDA Cash Flow FromOperating

Operating Income

FY-18 FY-19

Page 7: Scorpio Tankers Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 ... · Q4-19 Highlights Q4-19 Adjusted Net Profit • Adjusted net profit of $12.0 million or $0.22 per share for Q4-19, compared

7

Q4-19 & Q1-20 TCE Earnings Update

4th Quarter 2019 1st Quarter 2020

Vessel Type Spot ($/day) % Fixed Spot ($/day)

LR2 $25,230 70% $25,000

LR1 $17,653 80% $19,000

MR $17,429 60% $22,000

Handymax $19,294 60% $24,000

Page 8: Scorpio Tankers Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 ... · Q4-19 Highlights Q4-19 Adjusted Net Profit • Adjusted net profit of $12.0 million or $0.22 per share for Q4-19, compared

8

Scrubber Savings & Installation Schedule

1) Represents the number of vessels scheduled to commence scrubber installations during the period. Includes vessels that commenced work in prior periods but will be completed in the current period and 2 MR newbuilding vessels.

22

108

2

3

4

5

30

11

11

7

4

55

25

19

14

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Installed as ofFeb 18, 2020

Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20

(# o

f V

essels

)

LR2 LR1 MR

Fuel Savings for Scrubber Fitted Vessels (January 2020) Scrubber Installation Schedule (1)

$2,800

$5,400$5,300

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

MR LR1 LR2

Page 9: Scorpio Tankers Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 ... · Q4-19 Highlights Q4-19 Adjusted Net Profit • Adjusted net profit of $12.0 million or $0.22 per share for Q4-19, compared

9

Market Update: Looking Back Q4-19

Strong Rate Environment Pre IMO 2020

• Product tankers saw a significant improvement in Q4 rates y-o-y driven

by strong underlying demand and limited fleet growth

Despite several headwinds:

• Saudi Oil Infrastructure Attacks

• Reduction in Saudi product exports of 600 kb/d to 1mb/d since

the September 2019 attacks on the country’s oil infrastructure

• IMO 2020

• Demand impact on refined product exports yet to be felt, but

higher fuel prices have

• Increased fuel costs for non scrubber fitted vessels given switch

from less expensive HSFO to more expensive VLSFO

• Above Average Winter Temperatures

• Warmer weather has reduced seasonally strong winter distillate

heating oil demand

• Warmest winters on record in the United States and Europe

1.7

1.8

1.6

1.7

1.1

0.8

1.00.9

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Sep Oct Nov Dec

(mb/d

)

FY-18 FY-19

Saudi Refined Product Exports (1)

1) Jodi, February 2020

Page 10: Scorpio Tankers Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 ... · Q4-19 Highlights Q4-19 Adjusted Net Profit • Adjusted net profit of $12.0 million or $0.22 per share for Q4-19, compared

10

Market Update: Looking Forward

• Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19)

• In the short-term, disruptions can cause re-routing and increased utilization, masking the underlying economic

consequences of the virus in China.

• We expect Asian inventories to grow at the same time that regularly scheduled maintenance takes western refineries off

line. This can result in healthy volumes through the spring.

• In conclusion, demand destruction is never positive, but it takes time for downward adjustments to be fully realized in our

markets, and we are taking what steps we can to prepare for that.

• Our experience on the ground, as our vessels undergo maintenance and install scrubbers at repair facilities in China, is that

work continues at a reduced pace.

• We are monitoring the safety of our personnel closely and do not feel they are at risk.

• The delays we experiencing (on the order of several weeks per vessel) do not affect the analysis of installing

scrubbers, which are providing greater benefits that what we originally modelled.

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11

IMO 2020: It’s Still Early

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan

-19

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-19

Ap

r-19

Ma

y-1

9

Jun

-19

Jul-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Oct-

19

Nov-1

9

Dec-1

9

Jan

-20

(Mill

ion

B

arr

els

pe

r M

on

th)

HSFO VLSFO MGO

Bunker Prices (2)

Singapore Bunker Sales By Type (1)• What We Have Seen So Far

➢ High Levels of VLSFO Fuel Adoption: Accumulated storage in

preparation of IMO 2020 allowed for greater availability.

➢ Widening of the VLSFO-HSFO Spread: In January, spreads

averaged $200-$350/MT, depending on the region.

➢ Regional VLSFO Price Volatility: Differences in VLSFO prices

between regions reached $200/MT.

➢ Attractive Scrubber Economics for Modern Vessels: At current

VLSFO-HSFO spreads, the returns are significant and compounded

by Eco vessel fuel savings.

➢ VLSFO Blend Quality Issues: Shipowners have rejected certain

blends.

• What We Expect Going Forward

➢ Increased flows of MGO and distillate blending components that

were muted by storage of VLSFO in preparation of IMO 2020

➢ Improving refinery margins as refiners divert VGO to produce more

VLSFO at the cost of less distillate products

➢ Healthy VLSFO-HSFO spread driven by the reduction in demand

for HSFO

$309 $322 $334 $324

$566$611 $625

$519

$617$646 $649

$565

Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 7-Feb-20

HSFO Avg VLSFO Avg MGO Avg

1) Singapore Bunker & Maritime Statistics, February 2020

2) Clarksons Research Intelligence, February 2020

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12

Long Term Fundamentals

Demand

• Growing regional imbalances of products driven by

different crude slates, product yields/grades and

refining capacity expected to continue

• Refining capacity expansions continue to move

closer to the well head and further away from the

consumer

Supply

• Limited newbuilding orders extending the duration of

lowest orderbook as a % of fleet since 2000

• Ageing MR fleet continues to tighten supply as

number of vessels turning 15 years old exceeds

newbuilding deliveries

• Regulatory uncertainty around IMO 2030/2050

emission reductions and propulsions systems to act

as a constraint on newbuilding activity until

regulations become clear

Lowest Orderbook as a % of Fleet

6.8%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Product Tanker 10K+ Orderbook % Fleet5 Yr Avg10 Yr Avg

Favorable Supply/Demand Balance

2.6%

3.9%

5.7%6.3%

4.2%

1.8%

4.6%

1.6%1.8%

5.0%

-0.9%

7.1%

4.6%

1.2%1.1%

-1.9%

4.4%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e

Product Tanker Net Fleet Growth Seaborne Refined Products Trade

Source: Clarksons Research Intelligence, February 2020

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13

Investment Highlights

Largest and Most Modern

Product Tanker Fleet in the

World

• 128 owned or financed lease vessels (126 on the water) with an average age of 4.0 years with track record of

outperforming the market

Largest Scrubber Fitted

Tanker Fleet

• Scorpio's ECO fleet well positioned as the largest scrubber fitted product tanker fleet in the world

• Significant cash flow benefits driven by scrubber fuel savings given MGO-HSFO spread outlook

Positive Market

Fundamentals

• Ton mile demand continues to grow

• Limited newbuilding orders drives lowest orderbook as a % of fleet ever recorded

• Favorable supply/demand environment with demand expected to outstrip growth in 2020

IMO 2020 Is A Key Catalyst

For

Product Tankers

• Expected increase in demand for distillate via additional volumes and consumption of MGO & LSFO blends, increasing

the demand for product tankers

Significant Operating

Leverage

• Spot market employment within the world’s largest product tanker platform positions Scorpio to capture upside

• Higher spot TCE rates in every month in 2019 relative to 2018 levels

• $1,000/day increase in rates will generate ~$50 million of incremental annualized cash flow(1)

(1) Based on 128 owned and 10 TC/BB-in vessels.