scorpio tankers inc. fourth quarter and full year 2019 ... · q4-19 highlights q4-19 adjusted net...
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February 19, 2020
Scorpio Tankers Inc.
Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation
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Disclaimer and Forward-looking Statements
This presentation includes “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements reflect Scorpio Tankers Inc.’s (“Scorpio’s”) current views with respect to future events and financial performance. The words “believe,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “estimate,” “forecast,” “project,” “plan,” “potential,” “may,” “should,” “expect” and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements in this presentation are based upon various assumptions, many of which are based, in turn, upon further assumptions, including without limitation, management’s examination of historical operating trends, data contained in Scorpio’s records and other data available from third parties. Although Scorpio believes that these assumptions were reasonable when made, because these assumptions are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies which are difficult or impossible to predict and are beyond Scorpio’s control, Scorpio cannot assure you that it will achieve or accomplish these expectations, beliefs, projections or future financial performance.
Risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the failure of counterparties to fully perform their contracts with Scorpio, the strength of world economies and currencies, general market conditions, including fluctuations in charter hire rates and vessel values, changes in demand in the tanker vessel markets, changes in Scorpio’s operating expenses, including bunker prices, drydocking and insurance costs, the fuel efficiency of our vessels, the market for Scorpio's vessels, availability of financing and refinancing, charter counterparty performance, ability to obtain financing and comply with covenants in such financing arrangements, changes in governmental and environmental rules and regulations or actions taken by regulatory authorities including those that may limit the commercial useful lives of tankers, potential liability from pending or future litigation, general domestic and international political conditions, potential disruption of shipping routes due to accidents or political events, and other important factors described from time to time in the reports Scorpio files with, or furnishes to, the Securities and Exchange Commission, or the Commission, and the New York Stock Exchange, or NYSE. Scorpio undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of Scorpio's future performance, and actual results and future developments may vary materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements
This presentation describes time charter equivalent revenue, or TCE revenue, which is not a measure prepared in accordance with IFRS (i.e. a "Non-IFRS" measure). TCE revenue is presented here because we believe that it provides investors with a means of evaluating and understanding how the Company's management evaluates the Company's operating performance. This Non-IFRS measure should not be considered in isolation from, as a substitute for, or superior to financial measures prepared in accordance with IFRS.
The Company believes that the presentation of TCE revenue is useful to investors because it facilitates the comparability and the evaluation of companies in the Company’s industry. In addition, the Company believes that TCE revenue is useful in evaluating its operating performance compared to that of other companies in the Company’s industry. The Company’s definition of TCE revenue may not be the same as reported by other companies in the shipping industry or other industries. See appendix for a reconciliation of TCE revenue to revenue, please see the Appendix of this presentation.
Unless otherwise indicated, information contained in this presentation concerning Scorpio’s industry and the market in which it operates, including its general expectations about its industry, market position, market opportunity and market size, is based on data from various sources including internal data and estimates as well as third party sources widely available to the public such as independent industry publications, government publications, reports by market research firms or other published independent sources. Internal data and estimates are based upon this information as well as information obtained from trade and business organizations and other contacts in the markets in which Scorpio operates and management’s understanding of industry conditions. This information, data and estimates involve a number of assumptions and limitations, are subject to risks and uncertainties, and are subject to change based on various factors, including those discussed above. You are cautioned not to give undue weight to such information, data and estimates. While Scorpio believes the market and industry information included in this presentation to be generally reliable, it has not independently verified any third-party information or verified that more recent information is not available.
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Q4-19 & Full Year 2019 Earnings Presentation
• Q4-19 Financial Highlights
• YoY Quarterly & Annual Performance
• Q1-19 Guidance
• Scrubber Update
• Market Update
• Coronavirus
• IMO 2020
• Long Term Fundamentals
Agenda
4
Q4-19 Highlights
Q4-19
Adjusted Net Profit• Adjusted net profit of $12.0 million or $0.22 per share for Q4-19, compared to adjusted net loss of $17.7 million or $0.38 per share in Q4-18
Q4-19 Product Rates • Company’s average fleet TCE increased from $15,008 in Q4-18 to $19,910 in Q4-19, an increase of $4,900 per day
Increase in Cash Flow from
Operations• FY 2019 cash flow from operations of $209.5 million compared to $57.8 million in FY 2018, an increase of 263%
Vessel Refinancing’s• In Q4-19, the Company executed two term loan facilities with Prudential Private Capital and Hamburg Commercial Bank AG for a $99.1 million in
aggregate. The Company raised approximately $32.5 million in aggregate new liquidity as a result of these transactions
Scrubber Financing
• As of February 19, the Company has received commitments for an additional eight different facilities to partially finance the purchase and installation
of exhaust gas cleaning systems ("scrubbers") on certain of the Company's vessels.
• These commitments are expected to increase the Company’s liquidity by approximately $118.7 million. The drawdowns are expected to occur as the
scrubbers are installed throughout the remainder of 2020.
Scrubber Installations • The Company has 55 vessels on the water with exhaust gas cleaning systems “scrubbers”
Liquidity as of February 18, 2020• As of February 17, 2020, the Company had $164.7 million in unrestricted cash and cash equivalents
Quarterly Dividend• On February 18, 2020, the Company's Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per common share, payable on or about March
13, 2020 to all shareholders of record as of March 2, 2020 (the record date).
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YoY Quarterly Performance
$16,228
$13,548$14,412
$14,999
$24,987
$17,648 $17,261
$19,294
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
LR2 LR1 MR HM
Q4-18 Q4-19
Average Daily TCE ($/day) Financial Performance (USD$ Millions)
Significant Improvement in YoY Quarterly Performance Pre IMO 2020
$168
$78
$23$28
$222
$124
$69
$59
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
Revenue Adjusted EBITDA Cash Flow FromOperating
Operating Income
Q4-18 Q4-19
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YoY Annual Performance
Average Daily TCE ($/day) Financial Performance (USD$ Millions)
$13,968
$10,775
$12,589$12,196
$20,254
$15,846$15,095
$14,575
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
LR2 LR1 MR HM
FY-18 FY-19
Significant Improvement in YoY Performance Pre IMO 2020
$585
$212
$58
$11
$704
$364
$210
$130
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
Revenue Adjusted EBITDA Cash Flow FromOperating
Operating Income
FY-18 FY-19
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Q4-19 & Q1-20 TCE Earnings Update
4th Quarter 2019 1st Quarter 2020
Vessel Type Spot ($/day) % Fixed Spot ($/day)
LR2 $25,230 70% $25,000
LR1 $17,653 80% $19,000
MR $17,429 60% $22,000
Handymax $19,294 60% $24,000
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Scrubber Savings & Installation Schedule
1) Represents the number of vessels scheduled to commence scrubber installations during the period. Includes vessels that commenced work in prior periods but will be completed in the current period and 2 MR newbuilding vessels.
22
108
2
3
4
5
30
11
11
7
4
55
25
19
14
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Installed as ofFeb 18, 2020
Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20
(# o
f V
essels
)
LR2 LR1 MR
Fuel Savings for Scrubber Fitted Vessels (January 2020) Scrubber Installation Schedule (1)
$2,800
$5,400$5,300
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
MR LR1 LR2
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Market Update: Looking Back Q4-19
Strong Rate Environment Pre IMO 2020
• Product tankers saw a significant improvement in Q4 rates y-o-y driven
by strong underlying demand and limited fleet growth
Despite several headwinds:
• Saudi Oil Infrastructure Attacks
• Reduction in Saudi product exports of 600 kb/d to 1mb/d since
the September 2019 attacks on the country’s oil infrastructure
• IMO 2020
• Demand impact on refined product exports yet to be felt, but
higher fuel prices have
• Increased fuel costs for non scrubber fitted vessels given switch
from less expensive HSFO to more expensive VLSFO
• Above Average Winter Temperatures
• Warmer weather has reduced seasonally strong winter distillate
heating oil demand
• Warmest winters on record in the United States and Europe
1.7
1.8
1.6
1.7
1.1
0.8
1.00.9
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Sep Oct Nov Dec
(mb/d
)
FY-18 FY-19
Saudi Refined Product Exports (1)
1) Jodi, February 2020
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Market Update: Looking Forward
• Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19)
• In the short-term, disruptions can cause re-routing and increased utilization, masking the underlying economic
consequences of the virus in China.
• We expect Asian inventories to grow at the same time that regularly scheduled maintenance takes western refineries off
line. This can result in healthy volumes through the spring.
• In conclusion, demand destruction is never positive, but it takes time for downward adjustments to be fully realized in our
markets, and we are taking what steps we can to prepare for that.
• Our experience on the ground, as our vessels undergo maintenance and install scrubbers at repair facilities in China, is that
work continues at a reduced pace.
• We are monitoring the safety of our personnel closely and do not feel they are at risk.
• The delays we experiencing (on the order of several weeks per vessel) do not affect the analysis of installing
scrubbers, which are providing greater benefits that what we originally modelled.
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IMO 2020: It’s Still Early
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan
-19
Fe
b-1
9
Ma
r-19
Ap
r-19
Ma
y-1
9
Jun
-19
Jul-1
9
Au
g-1
9
Se
p-1
9
Oct-
19
Nov-1
9
Dec-1
9
Jan
-20
(Mill
ion
B
arr
els
pe
r M
on
th)
HSFO VLSFO MGO
Bunker Prices (2)
Singapore Bunker Sales By Type (1)• What We Have Seen So Far
➢ High Levels of VLSFO Fuel Adoption: Accumulated storage in
preparation of IMO 2020 allowed for greater availability.
➢ Widening of the VLSFO-HSFO Spread: In January, spreads
averaged $200-$350/MT, depending on the region.
➢ Regional VLSFO Price Volatility: Differences in VLSFO prices
between regions reached $200/MT.
➢ Attractive Scrubber Economics for Modern Vessels: At current
VLSFO-HSFO spreads, the returns are significant and compounded
by Eco vessel fuel savings.
➢ VLSFO Blend Quality Issues: Shipowners have rejected certain
blends.
• What We Expect Going Forward
➢ Increased flows of MGO and distillate blending components that
were muted by storage of VLSFO in preparation of IMO 2020
➢ Improving refinery margins as refiners divert VGO to produce more
VLSFO at the cost of less distillate products
➢ Healthy VLSFO-HSFO spread driven by the reduction in demand
for HSFO
$309 $322 $334 $324
$566$611 $625
$519
$617$646 $649
$565
Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 7-Feb-20
HSFO Avg VLSFO Avg MGO Avg
1) Singapore Bunker & Maritime Statistics, February 2020
2) Clarksons Research Intelligence, February 2020
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Long Term Fundamentals
Demand
• Growing regional imbalances of products driven by
different crude slates, product yields/grades and
refining capacity expected to continue
• Refining capacity expansions continue to move
closer to the well head and further away from the
consumer
Supply
• Limited newbuilding orders extending the duration of
lowest orderbook as a % of fleet since 2000
• Ageing MR fleet continues to tighten supply as
number of vessels turning 15 years old exceeds
newbuilding deliveries
• Regulatory uncertainty around IMO 2030/2050
emission reductions and propulsions systems to act
as a constraint on newbuilding activity until
regulations become clear
Lowest Orderbook as a % of Fleet
6.8%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Product Tanker 10K+ Orderbook % Fleet5 Yr Avg10 Yr Avg
Favorable Supply/Demand Balance
2.6%
3.9%
5.7%6.3%
4.2%
1.8%
4.6%
1.6%1.8%
5.0%
-0.9%
7.1%
4.6%
1.2%1.1%
-1.9%
4.4%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e
Product Tanker Net Fleet Growth Seaborne Refined Products Trade
Source: Clarksons Research Intelligence, February 2020
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Investment Highlights
Largest and Most Modern
Product Tanker Fleet in the
World
• 128 owned or financed lease vessels (126 on the water) with an average age of 4.0 years with track record of
outperforming the market
Largest Scrubber Fitted
Tanker Fleet
• Scorpio's ECO fleet well positioned as the largest scrubber fitted product tanker fleet in the world
• Significant cash flow benefits driven by scrubber fuel savings given MGO-HSFO spread outlook
Positive Market
Fundamentals
• Ton mile demand continues to grow
• Limited newbuilding orders drives lowest orderbook as a % of fleet ever recorded
• Favorable supply/demand environment with demand expected to outstrip growth in 2020
IMO 2020 Is A Key Catalyst
For
Product Tankers
• Expected increase in demand for distillate via additional volumes and consumption of MGO & LSFO blends, increasing
the demand for product tankers
Significant Operating
Leverage
• Spot market employment within the world’s largest product tanker platform positions Scorpio to capture upside
• Higher spot TCE rates in every month in 2019 relative to 2018 levels
• $1,000/day increase in rates will generate ~$50 million of incremental annualized cash flow(1)
(1) Based on 128 owned and 10 TC/BB-in vessels.