Science Policy and Social Change

December 2003

S&T Drive Economic Growth

Scientific and technical changes accounts for as much as 50% of long-run economic growth, even perhaps as much as 75%.

Public Science is Pillar of Industry

73% of science papers cited by U.S. industrial patents were based on research financed by government or nonprofit agencies.

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5

10

15

20

25

30

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1998 2002 2004

Trends in Basic Research FundingFY 1976-2004

Science is a Principal Driver of Change

SOCIAL CHANGEInternet

ENVIRONMENTALCHANGE

Climate

NATIONALSECURITYCHANGE

Weapons of Mass

Destruction

HEALTH ANDMEDICALCHANGE

Biotechnology

SCIENCE-BASED

ECONOMY

Science has the power to completely transform civilization. For some, science has made life comfortable and secure. For others, it has meant death and destruction

Science Policy Can Drive Outcomes

Types of Benefits

Distribution ofBenefits

Distribution ofProblems

Emergence ofNew Problems

SCIENCEPOLICY

Given the impact of science, science policy is the key variable, yet almost entirely ignored.

DISCUSSION

What are the major science policy issues in China and how do they affect you?

Evolution of the U.S. NIS

Laissez-Faire (1790-1940)War and Post-War (1940-1950)Federalization (1950-1975)

Laissex-Faire (1790-1940)

Government has no distinct S&T policy or mission

Key institutions in NIS were independent corporate R&D labs

In the late 19th century, universities emerge as the home of basic science and advanced training

War and Post-War (1940-1950)

Government establishes R&D institutions and expanded academic role to support the war effort

Large-scale federal investment, federally mandated objectives, targeted funding and industry-government cooperation are the norm

By end of war, hundreds of new labs established and potential of large-scale R&D to meet national objectives is demonstrated

Science the Endless Frontier

President Roosevelt asks Vannevar Bush, the director of the war-time OSRD, to look ahead to the role of science in peacetime

Science the Endless Frontier becomes the foundation for U.S. science policy

Foundations of U.S. Science Policy

Republic of Science Self-regulation by scientists

Market Failure Model Basic science as a public good

Unpredictability Science as experimentation

Current Approach to Science Policy

Addresses Conduct of S&T Products and processes of S&T

Assumes All societal outcomes will be positive Linear model of innovation and societal benefit

Inputs Processes Products Outcomes

Federalization: NIS Institutions

Hundred of large industrial labsDozens of large federal labsThousands of small technology-oriented

labs and companiesHundred of unconnected and unplanned

federal labsHundreds of thousands of researchers at

universities

But where are we going?

Indications of Societal Transformation

GMO controversyAffordability of AIDS drugsLack of medical insuranceAging of the populationChanging climate

Satisfaction (is not tied to wealth)

Health (is not entirely tied to wealth)

Health (is not always tied to spending)

Country Disability-Adjusted Life Expectancy

Japan 74.5

France 73.1

Sweden 73.0

U.K. 71.7

U.S. 70.0

China 62.3

Iran 60.5

India 53.2

Country Health Expenditures as % of GDP

U.S. 13.7

France 9.8

Sweden 9.2

Japan 7.1

U.K. 5.8

Iran 5.5

China 5.3

India 5.2

DISCUSSION

How can science and science-based technology most effectively contribute to an improved quality of life for the greatest number of people? Malaria is the leading cause of death in young

children. It is estimated that if malaria had been eradicated in Africa by 1960, GDP would be 32% higher than it is today.

Until the 1950s, polio crippled thousands of children every year in industrialized countries.

Dual Agenda: Science and Social Equity

The challenge is to develop S&T policy that reaches a significant proportion of the population S&T and social issues are critically

interdependent Technology strategy drives government

spending and its social outcomes Linear thinking in technology policy is linear

thinking in social outcomes

DISCUSSION

How does the science that we do affect the social choices we make? The two atomic bombs dropped during WWII

killed 150,000 people. More than 100 million women are on birth

control pills. More than 80% of women in the U.S. born after 1945 have used the pill.

DISCUSSION

How do the S&T programs we implement affect the distribution and equity of outcomes? Sub-Saharan Africa holds 2% of the world’s

population, but 30% of the AIDS population Three million people worldwide died of AIDS

this past year, 2.3 million of them in southern Africa

Lessons from Old Science Policy

Desired outcomes can drive the scienceSocietal value of new knowledge is

determined by how it is used and by whom it is used

Societal outcomes reflect who is making science policy

Desired outcomes emerge when scientific advance is well-matched by societal needs

Cycle Dynamics

Conductof Science

EconomicOutcomes

S&TOutcomes

SocietalOutcomes

POLICY New industries

Tech transfer

Knowledge transfer

KnowledgeNetworks

New social structures

EducationNew skills

New institutions

New Science Policy

New Science Policy aims to create knowledge, cultivate public discourse and foster policies that help society grapple with the immense power of science.

A New Science Policy Framework

Outcome-drivenIntegratedInformedSelf-correctingRecognizes and responds to the

inextricable links between science and technology and societal evolution

Morality and Science

What is the collective good we want inquiry to promote? Philip Kitcher, Professor of Philosophy, Columbia University