science, policy and large-scale fertilization of the ocean for carbon offsets
DESCRIPTION
John J. Cullen Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada B3H 4J1TRANSCRIPT
Science, policy and large-scale fertilization Science, policy and large-scale fertilization of the ocean for carbon offsetsof the ocean for carbon offsets
John J. Cullen
Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University
Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada B3H 4J1
IGBP 20th Anniversary Symposium
Earth System Science and Society
Stockholm – 17 September 2007
IGBP 20th Anniversary Symposium: John Cullen
“give me half a tanker of iron, and I will give you the next ice age”
… John Martin
IGBP 20th Anniversary Symposium: John Cullen
Consensus Resolution
The American Society of Limnology and Oceanography (ASLO) formally “…urg[es] all governments to regard the role of iron in marine
productivity as an area for further research and not to consider [large scale] iron fertilization as a policy
option that significantly changes the need to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide.”
(Limnology and Oceanography 1991, Vol. 36)
Results reported in the scientific literatureResults reported in the scientific literature
…virtually inaccessible to the general public
Relevant research routinely sensationalized Relevant research routinely sensationalized by the mediaby the media
?
IGBP 20th Anniversary Symposium: John Cullen
Plans for commercial fertilization of the ocean were quickly developed
Patent for fertilization with iron chelate
May include seeding surface layers with other nutrients, microorganisms, and fish Michael Markels, Jr.
Promotional materials distributed on the web
Farming the Ocean by Michael Markels, Jr., Ocean Farming, Inc., USA
Ocean farming is the modification of the ocean surface by the addition of nutrients to greatly enhance the productivity of the resource. When applied to large areas of the barren tropical seas, ocean farming can increase the phyto plankton, the base of the food chain, bringing the productivity up to the level that occurs naturally off of the coast of Peru. This can result in an increase in fish catch by a factor of 400 or more. A 53,000 square mile ocean area might see the fish catch go to 50 million tons per year. The carbon dioxide absorbed initially could exceed the production by the United States from the burning of fossil fuels. While the concept of farming is well accepted on land, the extension to the ocean is new. It requires the investment in the resource to increase productivity so the "commons" approach, which has been the tradition in the ocean fisheries, does not suffice. A measure of private property rights are needed, at least within the national exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of the host states.
The response of much of the oceanographic community has been negative, but after careful study some key oceanographers have endorsed the validity of the project.
Recurring theme:
Unrecognized Potential Side Effects
Successful fertilization must change water transparency
Tomascik et al. 1993
IGBP 20th Anniversary Symposium: John Cullen
Another idea
Fertilization of Ocean Waters with Nitrogen will Provide Food and Sequester Carbon
http://www.oceannourishment.com
IGBP 20th Anniversary Symposium: John Cullen
Mississippi ‘Dead Mississippi ‘Dead Zone’Zone’
Low oxygen water… has spread across Low oxygen water… has spread across nearly 5,800 square miles of the Gulf of nearly 5,800 square miles of the Gulf of MexicoMexico
Nutrient input the causeNutrient input the cause
Plankton BiomassPlankton Biomass
oxygen concentration oxygen concentration (red and orange very low)(red and orange very low)
Chisholm slide
Both “High-Nutrient, Low-Chlorophyll” and Open-Ocean Blue Waters were Targets
Stimulation of Nitrogen Fixation
Transformation of Food Webs
As Presented by John Cullen, PICES IX, Hakodate, 24 October 2000
IGBP 20th Anniversary Symposium: John Cullen
A range of views
Still virtually inaccessible to the general public
IGBP 20th Anniversary Symposium: John Cullen
Maritime Law: 1990 – 2006
Jurisdiction is unclear
No obvious recognition of the problem
No strong lines of communications with oceanographers
“Policy vacuum”
Elizabeth Mann Borgese
March, 2000
IGBP 20th Anniversary Symposium: John Cullen
3. The Scientific Groups of the London Convention and London Protocol note with concern the potential for large-scale ocean iron fertilisation to have negative impacts on the marine environment and human health. They therefore recommend that any such operations be evaluated carefully to ensure, among other things, that such operations are not contrary to the aims of the London Convention and London Protocol.
After 20 years, ocean fertilization is gaining recognitionin ocean policy
IGBP 20th Anniversary Symposium: John Cullen
4. Such an evaluation should include, among other things, consideration of:
1. the estimated amounts and potential impacts of iron and other materials that may be released with the iron;
2. the potential impacts of gases that may be produced by the expected
phytoplankton blooms or by bacteria decomposing the dead phytoplankton;
3. the estimated extent and potential impacts of bacterial decay of the
expected phytoplankton blooms, including reducing oxygen concentrations;
4. the types of phytoplankton that are expected to bloom and the
potential impacts of any harmful algal blooms that may develop; 5. the nature and extent of potential impacts on the marine ecosystem
including naturally occurring marine species and communities; 6. the estimated amounts and timescales of carbon sequestration,
taking account of partitioning between sediments and water; and 7. the estimated carbon mass balance for the operation.
Basically, a call for an environmental impact assessment
IGBP 20th Anniversary Symposium: John Cullen
…and markets will require stringent verification
An example
IGBP 20th Anniversary Symposium: John Cullen
Key Concepts
Measurable – within standard margins of measurement error (e.g., +/- 3%)
Secondary effects must be quantified
Permanent – with mechanism for immediate replacement or compensation if GHG reduction is reversed
IGBP 20th Anniversary Symposium: John Cullen
“the project boundary shallencompass all anthropogenic emissionsby sources of greenhouse gases(GHG) under the control of the projectparticipants that are significant andreasonably attributable to theproject activity.”
Key Concept:Project Boundary
IGBP 20th Anniversary Symposium: John Cullen
If ocean fertilization is to significantly influence
atmospheric carbon dioxide, the project boundary is the whole
ocean.
IGBP 20th Anniversary Symposium: John Cullen
IronIron
Organic N Organic N
PhytoplanktonPhytoplanktonBloomBloom
NHNH44
N remineralizationN remineralization
COCO22
NONO33--
NN22
NN2200 Nitrous oxideNitrous oxide• Greenhouse gas
• 300x CO2
Lower Lower Oxygen WatersOxygen Waters
After a slide from S.W. Chisholm
Microbial Nitrification
Mic
robi
al
Den
itrifi
catio
n
NN2200
Secondary effects must be quantified
IGBP 20th Anniversary Symposium: John Cullen
We have a basis for rational discussion
Proposition: Ocean fertilization for carbon offsets cannot be verified so it is not a viable technology for climate mitigation.